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35-578: To be effective, early warning systems need to actively involve the communities at risk, facilitate public education and awareness of risks, effectively disseminate alerts, and warnings and ensure there is constant state of preparedness. A complete and effective early warning system supports four main functions: risk analysis , monitoring and warning; dissemination and communication; and a response capability. Risk analysis involves systematically collecting data and undertaking risk assessments of predefined hazards and vulnerabilities. Monitoring and warning involves

70-474: A National scale Prioritisation and Early Warning System (PEWS) for contaminants of emerging concern . Since the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004, there has been a surge of interest in developing early warning systems. However, early warning systems can be used to detect a wide range of events, such as vehicular collisions, missile launches, disease outbreaks, and so forth. See warning system for

105-431: A company's prospects. In economics, as in finance, risk is often defined as quantifiable uncertainty about gains and losses. Environmental risk arises from environmental hazards or environmental issues . In the environmental context, risk is defined as "The chance of harmful effects to human health or to ecological systems". Environmental risk assessment aims to assess the effects of stressors, often chemicals, on

140-405: A highly quantified way. The technique is usually referred to as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). See WASH-1400 for an example of this approach. The incidence rate can also be reduced due to the provision of better occupational health and safety programmes. Security is freedom from, or resilience against, potential harm caused by others. A security risk is "any event that could result in

175-400: A large organization or simply crossing the road. Intuitive risk management is addressed under the psychology of risk below. Risk management refers to a systematic approach to managing risks, and sometimes to the profession that does this. A general definition is that risk management consists of "coordinated activities to direct and control an organization with regard to risk". ISO 31000 ,

210-431: A pool of risks including market risk, credit risk, operational risk, interest rate risk, mortality risk, longevity risks, etc. The term "risk" has a long history in insurance and has acquired several specialised definitions, including "the subject-matter of an insurance contract", "an insured peril" as well as the more common "possibility of an event occurring which causes injury or loss". Occupational health and safety

245-622: A simple summary, defining risk as "the possibility of something bad happening". The International Organization for Standardization (ISO) 31073 provides basic vocabulary to develop common understanding on risk management concepts and terms across different applications. ISO 31073 defines risk as: effect of uncertainty on objectives Note 1: An effect is a deviation from the expected. It can be positive, negative or both, and can address, create or result in opportunities and threats . Note 2: Objectives can have different aspects and categories, and can be applied at different levels. Note 3: Risk

280-399: A study of the factors that indicate a disaster is imminent, as well as the methods used to detect these factors. Dissemination and communication concerns communicating the risk information and warnings to reach those in danger in a way that is clear and understandable. Finally, an adequate response capability requires the building of national and community response plan, testing of the plan, and

315-521: A variety of hazards that may result in accidents causing harm to people, property and the environment. In the safety field, risk is typically defined as the "likelihood and severity of hazardous events". Safety risks are controlled using techniques of risk management. A high reliability organisation (HRO) involves complex operations in environments where catastrophic accidents could occur. Examples include aircraft carriers, air traffic control, aerospace and nuclear power stations. Some HROs manage risk in

350-514: A wider list of applications that also can be supported by early warning systems. Risk analysis In simple terms, risk is the possibility of something bad happening. Risk involves uncertainty about the effects/implications of an activity with respect to something that humans value (such as health, well-being, wealth, property or the environment), often focusing on negative, undesirable consequences. Many different definitions have been proposed. One international standard definition of risk

385-494: Is a questionnaire screening tool, used to provide individuals with an evaluation of their health risks and quality of life. Health, safety, and environment (HSE) are separate practice areas; however, they are often linked. The reason is typically to do with organizational management structures; however, there are strong links among these disciplines. One of the strongest links is that a single risk event may have impacts in all three areas, albeit over differing timescales. For example,

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420-416: Is an individual or collaborative undertaking planned to achieve a specific aim. Project risk is defined as, "an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on a project's objectives". Project risk management aims to increase the likelihood and impact of positive events and decrease the likelihood and impact of negative events in the project. Safety is concerned with

455-476: Is concerned with occupational hazards experienced in the workplace. The Occupational Health and Safety Assessment Series (OHSAS) standard OHSAS 18001 in 1999 defined risk as the "combination of the likelihood and consequence(s) of a specified hazardous event occurring". In 2018 this was replaced by ISO 45001 "Occupational health and safety management systems", which use the ISO Guide 73 definition. A project

490-432: Is narrowly focused on computer security, information risks extend to other forms of information (paper, microfilm). Insurance is a risk treatment option which involves risk sharing. It can be considered as a form of contingent capital and is akin to purchasing an option in which the buyer pays a small premium to be protected from a potential large loss. Insurance risk is often taken by insurance companies, who then bear

525-603: Is the "effect of uncertainty on objectives". The understanding of risk, the methods of assessment and management, the descriptions of risk and even the definitions of risk differ in different practice areas ( business , economics , environment , finance , information technology , health , insurance , safety , security etc). This article provides links to more detailed articles on these areas. The international standard for risk management, ISO 31000 , provides principles and general guidelines on managing risks faced by organizations . The Oxford English Dictionary (OED) cites

560-472: Is the use of computers to store, retrieve, transmit, and manipulate data. IT risk (or cyber risk) arises from the potential that a threat may exploit a vulnerability to breach security and cause harm. IT risk management applies risk management methods to IT to manage IT risks. Computer security is the protection of IT systems by managing IT risks. Information security is the practice of protecting information by mitigating information risks. While IT risk

595-436: Is usually expressed in terms of risk sources, potential events, their consequences and their likelihood. This definition was developed by an international committee representing over 30 countries and is based on the input of several thousand subject-matter experts. It was first adopted in 2002 for use in standards. Its complexity reflects the difficulty of satisfying fields that use the term risk, in different ways. Some restrict

630-478: The variance (or standard deviation) of asset prices. More recent risk measures include value at risk . Because investors are generally risk averse , investments with greater inherent risk must promise higher expected returns. Financial risk management uses financial instruments to manage exposure to risk. It includes the use of a hedge to offset risks by adopting a position in an opposing market or investment. In financial audit , audit risk refers to

665-502: The Cold War and later astronomical and military radars. Scientists are researching and developing systems to predict eruptions of volcanoes , earthquakes and other natural disasters. Early warning systems could be developed and used to prevent and mitigate pandemics , e.g. before they spillover from other animals to humans, and disease outbreaks. Because of changes in extreme weather and sea level rise , due to climate change,

700-694: The UN has recommended early warning systems as key elements of climate change adaptation and climate risk management . Flooding, cyclones and other rapidly changing weather events can make communities in coastal areas, along floodzones and reliant on agriculture very vulnerable to extreme events. To this end the UN is running a partnership titled "Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems" to aid high risk countries with neglected warning systems in developing them. European countries have also seen early warning systems help communities adapt to drought, heat waves, disease, fire, and other related effects of climate change. Similarly

735-682: The WHO recommends early warning systems to prevent increases in heatwave related morbidity and disease outbreaks. A large number of chemical substances (approximately 350,000) have been created and used without full understanding of the hazards and risks that they each pose. Chemicals have the potential to cause environmental degradation and harm to human health. Chemical prioritisation and early warning systems are being created to help understand which chemicals should be focused upon for regulatory interventions. The Environment Agency in England have set up

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770-711: The common methods of management, the measurements of risk and even the definition of risk differ in different practice areas. This section provides links to more detailed articles on these areas. Business risks arise from uncertainty about the profit of a commercial business due to unwanted events such as changes in tastes, changing preferences of consumers, strikes, increased competition, changes in government policy, obsolescence etc. Business risks are controlled using techniques of risk management . In many cases they may be managed by intuitive steps to prevent or mitigate risks, by following regulations or standards of good practice, or by insurance . Enterprise risk management includes

805-452: The compromise of organizational assets i.e. the unauthorized use, loss, damage, disclosure or modification of organizational assets for the profit, personal interest or political interests of individuals, groups or other entities." Security risk management involves protection of assets from harm caused by deliberate acts. Risk is ubiquitous in all areas of life and we all manage these risks, consciously or intuitively, whether we are managing

840-432: The context of public health , risk assessment is the process of characterizing the nature and likelihood of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain human activities. Health risk assessment can be mostly qualitative or can include statistical estimates of probabilities for specific populations. A health risk assessment (also referred to as a health risk appraisal and health & well-being assessment)

875-540: The earliest use of the word in English (in the spelling of risque from its French original, 'risque') as of 1621, and the spelling as risk from 1655. While including several other definitions, the OED 3rd edition defines risk as: (Exposure to) the possibility of loss, injury, or other adverse or unwelcome circumstance; a chance or situation involving such a possibility. The Cambridge Advanced Learner's Dictionary gives

910-414: The importance of different adverse effects in a particular situation. The Society for Risk Analysis concludes that "experience has shown that to agree on one unified set of definitions is not realistic". The solution is "to allow for different perspectives on fundamental concepts and make a distinction between overall qualitative definitions and their associated measurements." The understanding of risk,

945-511: The international standard for risk management, describes a risk management process that consists of the following elements: Warning system Warning system is any system of biological or technical nature deployed by an individual or group to inform of a future danger . Its purpose is to enable the deployer of the warning system to prepare for the danger and act accordingly to mitigate or avoid it. Warnings cannot be effective unless people react to them. People are more likely to ignore

980-444: The local environment. Finance is concerned with money management and acquiring funds. Financial risk arises from uncertainty about financial returns. It includes market risk , credit risk , liquidity risk and operational risk . In finance, risk is the possibility that the actual return on an investment will be different from its expected return. This includes not only " downside risk " (returns below expectations, including

1015-697: The massive availability of information through (social) media, early-warning systems that use these vast amounts of information are also developed to potentially detect risks of terrorism and novel terror attacks. This builds on the assumption that aggregated news coverage functions as a wisdom-of-the-crowd mechanism, where aggregated (and quantified) information can provide a reliable and cost-effective source of information for more accurate and precise predictions. The easiest or most likely artificial signals from Earth to be detectable from around distant stars are brief pulses transmitted by such anti-ballistic missile (ABM) early-warning and space-surveillance radars during

1050-469: The methods and processes used by organizations to manage risks and seize opportunities related to the achievement of their objectives. Economics is concerned with the production, distribution and consumption of goods and services. Economic risk arises from uncertainty about economic outcomes. For example, economic risk may be the chance that macroeconomic conditions like exchange rates, government regulation, or political stability will affect an investment or

1085-425: The possibility of losing some or all of the original investment) but also "upside risk" (returns that exceed expectations). In Knight's definition, risk is often defined as quantifiable uncertainty about gains and losses. This contrasts with Knightian uncertainty , which cannot be quantified. Financial risk modeling determines the aggregate risk in a financial portfolio. Modern portfolio theory measures risk using

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1120-440: The potential that an audit report may fail to detect material misstatement either due to error or fraud. Health risks arise from disease and other biological hazards . Epidemiology is the study and analysis of the distribution, patterns and determinants of health and disease. It is a cornerstone of public health , and shapes policy decisions by identifying risk factors for disease and targets for preventive healthcare . In

1155-525: The promotion of readiness to ensure that people know how to respond to warnings. An early warning system is more than a warning system , which is simply a means by which an alert can be disseminated to the public. Early-warning radars , early warning satellites , and Airborne early warning and control are systems used for detecting potential missile attacks. Throughout human history the warning systems that use such have malfunctioned several times, including some nuclear-weapons-related false alarms . Due to

1190-422: The term to negative impacts ("downside risks"), while others also include positive impacts ("upside risks"). Some resolve these differences by arguing that the definition of risk is subjective. For example: No definition is advanced as the correct one, because there is no one definition that is suitable for all problems. Rather, the choice of definition is a political one, expressing someone's views regarding

1225-423: The uncontrolled release of radiation or a toxic chemical may have immediate short-term safety consequences, more protracted health impacts, and much longer-term environmental impacts . Events such as Chernobyl , for example, caused immediate deaths, and in the longer term, deaths from cancers, and left a lasting environmental impact leading to birth defects , impacts on wildlife, etc. Information technology (IT)

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