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70-541: CIFA goals were: The Director of DoD CIFA reported directly to DoD's Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence. The offices of Chief of Staff, Office of General Counsel, and Office of the Inspector General reported directly to the Director of CIFA. CIFA was then broken into four directorates: Program Management, Information Technology, Operational Support and Training and Development. Program Management

140-429: A recognition-primed decision that fits their experience, and arrive at a course of action without weighing alternatives. The decision-maker's environment can play a part in the decision-making process. For example, environmental complexity is a factor that influences cognitive function. A complex environment is an environment with a large number of different possible states which come and go over time. Studies done at

210-417: A two-alternative forced choice task involving rhesus monkeys found that neurons in the parietal cortex not only represent the formation of a decision but also signal the degree of certainty (or "confidence") associated with the decision. A 2012 study found that rats and humans can optimally accumulate incoming sensory evidence, to make statistically optimal decisions. Another study found that lesions to

280-405: A decision turned out to be sub-optimal). The psychologist Daniel Kahneman , adopting terms originally proposed by the psychologists Keith Stanovich and Richard West, has theorized that a person's decision-making is the result of an interplay between two kinds of cognitive processes : an automatic intuitive system (called "System 1") and an effortful rational system (called "System 2"). System 1

350-506: A decision-making process called GOFER, which they taught to adolescents, as summarized in the book Teaching Decision Making To Adolescents . The process was based on extensive earlier research conducted with psychologist Irving Janis . GOFER is an acronym for five decision-making steps: In 2007, Pam Brown of Singleton Hospital in Swansea , Wales , divided the decision-making process into seven steps: In 2008, Kristina Guo published

420-438: A decline in decision-making skills. People who make decisions in an extended period of time begin to lose mental energy needed to analyze all possible solutions. Impulsive decision-making and decision avoidance are two possible paths that extend from decision fatigue. Impulse decisions are made more often when a person is tired of analysis situations or solutions; the solution they make is to act and not think. Decision avoidance

490-836: A greater risk to health than they thought), but do not differ from adults in their ability to alter beliefs in response to good news. This creates biased beliefs, which may lead to greater risk taking. Adults are generally better able to control their risk-taking because their cognitive-control system has matured enough to the point where it can control the socioemotional network, even in the context of high arousal or when psychosocial capacities are present. Also, adults are less likely to find themselves in situations that push them to do risky things. For example, teens are more likely to be around peers who peer pressure them into doing things, while adults are not as exposed to this sort of social setting. Biases usually affect decision-making processes. They appear more when decision task has time pressure,

560-419: A group improves the quality of decisions, while the majority of opinions (called consensus norms) do not. Conflicts in socialization are divided in to functional and dysfunctional types. Functional conflicts are mostly the questioning the managers assumptions in their decision making and dysfunctional conflicts are like personal attacks and every action which decrease team effectiveness. Functional conflicts are

630-411: A group or individual is unable to make it through the problem-solving step on the way to making a decision, they could be experiencing analysis paralysis. Analysis paralysis is the state that a person enters where they are unable to make a decision, in effect paralyzing the outcome. Some of the main causes for analysis paralysis is the overwhelming flood of incoming data or the tendency to overanalyze

700-409: A group or one's life. Analysis paralysis is the exact opposite where a group's schedule could be saturated by too much of a structural checks and balance system. Groupthink is another occurrence that falls under the idea of extinction by instinct. Groupthink is when members in a group become more involved in the “value of the group (and their being part of it) higher than anything else”; thus, creating

770-569: A habit of making decisions quickly and unanimously. In other words, a group stuck in groupthink is participating in the phenomenon of extinction by instinct. Information overload is "a gap between the volume of information and the tools we have to assimilate" it. Information used in decision-making is to reduce or eliminate the uncertainty. Excessive information affects problem processing and tasking, which affects decision-making. Psychologist George Armitage Miller suggests that humans' decision making becomes inhibited because human brains can only hold

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840-719: A lack of logic or reasoning, but more due to the immaturity of psychosocial capacities that influence decision-making. Examples of their undeveloped capacities which influence decision-making would be impulse control, emotion regulation, delayed gratification and resistance to peer pressure . In the past, researchers have thought that adolescent behavior was simply due to incompetency regarding decision-making. Currently, researchers have concluded that adults and adolescents are both competent decision-makers, not just adults. However, adolescents' competent decision-making skills decrease when psychosocial capacities become present. Research has shown that risk-taking behaviors in adolescents may be

910-422: A limited amount of information. Crystal C. Hall and colleagues described an "illusion of knowledge", which means that as individuals encounter too much knowledge, it can interfere with their ability to make rational decisions. Other names for information overload are information anxiety, information explosion, infobesity, and infoxication. Decision fatigue is when a sizable amount of decision-making leads to

980-578: A person's decision-making process depends to a significant degree on their cognitive style. Myers developed a set of four bi-polar dimensions, called the Myers–Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI). The terminal points on these dimensions are: thinking and feeling ; extroversion and introversion ; judgment and perception ; and sensing and intuition . She claimed that a person's decision-making style correlates well with how they score on these four dimensions. For example, someone who scored near

1050-616: A review of CIFA activities was ordered by then Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence Stephen A. Cambone, who stated at the time that it appeared that there had been several violations. A complaint requesting the expedition of the FOIA requests by the ACLU was ruled in their favor by a federal court. The released documents showed that at least 126 peace groups' information had been held past required removal dates. The DoD has since stated that it removed all improperly kept data. On April 1, 2008,

1120-500: A sense of reward from risk-taking behaviors, their repetition becomes ever more probable due to the reward experienced. In this, the process mirrors addiction . Teens can become addicted to risky behavior because they are in a high state of arousal and are rewarded for it not only by their own internal functions but also by their peers around them. A recent study suggests that adolescents have difficulties adequately adjusting beliefs in response to bad news (such as reading that smoking poses

1190-406: A single choice about how to face the problem. Although these steps are relatively ordinary, judgements are often distorted by cognitive and motivational biases, include "sins of commission", "sins of omission", and "sins of imprecision". Herbert A. Simon coined the phrase " bounded rationality " to express the idea that human decision-making is limited by available information, available time and

1260-430: A solution deemed to be optimal, or at least satisfactory. It is therefore a process which can be more or less rational or irrational and can be based on explicit or tacit knowledge and beliefs. Tacit knowledge is often used to fill the gaps in complex decision-making processes. Usually, both of these types of knowledge, tacit and explicit, are used together in the decision-making process. Human performance has been

1330-423: Is a bottom-up, fast, and implicit system of decision-making, while system 2 is a top-down, slow, and explicit system of decision-making. System 1 includes simple heuristics in judgment and decision-making such as the affect heuristic , the availability heuristic , the familiarity heuristic , and the representativeness heuristic . Styles and methods of decision-making were elaborated by Aron Katsenelinboigen ,

1400-406: Is a multi-step process for making choices between alternatives. The process of rational decision making favors logic, objectivity, and analysis over subjectivity and insight. Irrational decision is more counter to logic. The decisions are made in haste and outcomes are not considered. One of the most prominent theories of decision making is subjective expected utility (SEU) theory, which describes

1470-468: Is a reasoning process based on assumptions of values , preferences and beliefs of the decision-maker. Every decision-making process produces a final choice , which may or may not prompt action. Research about decision-making is also published under the label problem solving , particularly in European psychological research . Decision-making can be regarded as a problem-solving activity yielding

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1540-442: Is a region of intense study in the fields of systems neuroscience , and cognitive neuroscience . Several brain structures, including the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), orbitofrontal cortex , and the overlapping ventromedial prefrontal cortex are believed to be involved in decision-making processes. A neuroimaging study found distinctive patterns of neural activation in these regions depending on whether decisions were made on

1610-434: Is done under high stress and/or task is highly complex. Here is a list of commonly debated biases in judgment and decision-making : In groups, people generate decisions through active and complex processes. One method consists of three steps: initial preferences are expressed by members; the members of the group then gather and share information concerning those preferences; finally, the members combine their views and make

1680-417: Is generally seen as the best or most likely decision to achieve the set goals or outcome. It has been found that, unlike adults, children are less likely to have research strategy behaviors. One such behavior is adaptive decision-making, which is described as funneling and then analyzing the more promising information provided if the number of options to choose from increases. Adaptive decision-making behavior

1750-408: Is hoarded, causes conflict points where information transitions from one type to another. The first conflict point, collection, occurs when private transitions to secret information (intelligence). The second conflict point, dissemination, occurs when secret transitions to public information. Thus, conceiving of intelligence using these assumptions demonstrates the cause of collection techniques (to ease

1820-405: Is somewhat present for children, ages 11–12 and older, but decreases in presence the younger they are. The reason children are not as fluid in their decision making is because they lack the ability to weigh the cost and effort needed to gather information in the decision-making process. Some possibilities that explain this inability are knowledge deficits and lack of utilization skills. Children lack

1890-450: Is that more complex principles of fairness in decision making such as contextual and intentional information do not come until children get older. During their adolescent years, teens are known for their high-risk behaviors and rash decisions. Research has shown that there are differences in cognitive processes between adolescents and adults during decision-making. Researchers have concluded that differences in decision-making are not due to

1960-484: Is transformed from privately held to secretly held to public based on who has control over it. For example, the private information of a source becomes secret information (intelligence) when control over its dissemination is shared with an intelligence officer, and then becomes public information when the intelligence officer further disseminates it to the public by any number of means, including formal reporting, threat warning, and others. The fourth assumption, intelligence

2030-471: Is when a person evades the situation entirely by not ever making a decision. Decision avoidance is different from analysis paralysis because this sensation is about avoiding the situation entirely, while analysis paralysis is continually looking at the decisions to be made but still unable to make a choice. Evaluation and analysis of past decisions is complementary to decision-making. See also mental accounting and Postmortem documentation . Decision-making

2100-939: The Privacy Act of 1974 , which strengthened and specified a United States citizen's right to privacy as noted in the Fourth Amendment United States Constitution . In addition, the Supreme Court of the United States found in Griswold v. Connecticut (1965) the right to privacy against government intrusion was protected by the " penumbras " of other Constitutional provisions. The DoD reflected these in its own guidelines that have been in place since 1982. CIFA's similar collection and retention of data on peace groups and other activists promoted parallels to be drawn between

2170-498: The University of Colorado have shown that more complex environments correlate with higher cognitive function, which means that a decision can be influenced by the location. One experiment measured complexity in a room by the number of small objects and appliances present; a simple room had less of those things. Cognitive function was greatly affected by the higher measure of environmental complexity, making it easier to think about

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2240-409: The analyst may direct some collection. Intelligence studies is the academic field concerning intelligence assessment, especially relating to international relations and military science . Intelligence assessment is based on a customer requirement or need, which may be a standing requirement or tailored to a specific circumstance or a Request for Information (RFI). The "requirement" is passed to

2310-597: The ACC in the macaque resulted in impaired decision-making in the long run of reinforcement guided tasks suggesting that the ACC may be involved in evaluating past reinforcement information and guiding future action. It has recently been argued that the development of formal frameworks will allow neuroscientists to study richer and more naturalistic paradigms than simple 2AFC decision tasks; in particular, such decisions may involve planning and information search across temporally extended environments. Emotion appears able to aid

2380-525: The DECIDE model of decision-making, which has six parts: In 2009, professor John Pijanowski described how the Arkansas Program, an ethics curriculum at the University of Arkansas , used eight stages of moral decision-making based on the work of James Rest : There are four stages or phases that should be involved in all group decision-making: It is said that establishing critical norms in

2450-653: The Pentagon's top intelligence official (James R. Clapper, the Under Secretary of Defense (Intelligence)) recommended CIFA's dismantling. On August 8, 2008, it was announced that CIFA would be shut down and its activities would be absorbed by the Defense Intelligence Agency . Intelligence (information gathering) Intelligence assessment , or simply intel , is the development of behavior forecasts or recommended courses of action to

2520-452: The assessing agency and worked through the intelligence cycle , a structured method for responding to the RFI. The RFI may indicate in what format the requester prefers to consume the product. The RFI is reviewed by a Requirements Manager, who will then direct appropriate tasks to respond to the request. This will involve a review of existing material, the tasking of new analytical product or

2590-406: The basis of perceived personal volition or following directions from someone else. Patients with damage to the ventromedial prefrontal cortex have difficulty making advantageous decisions. A common laboratory paradigm for studying neural decision-making is the two-alternative forced choice task (2AFC), in which a subject has to choose between two alternatives within a certain time. A study of

2660-478: The better ones to gain higher quality decision making caused by the increased team knowledge and shared understanding. In economics , it is thought that if humans are rational and free to make their own decisions, then they would behave according to rational choice theory . Rational choice theory says that a person consistently makes choices that lead to the best situation for themselves, taking into account all available considerations including costs and benefits;

2730-412: The capture of material (the main constituent element of a chess position). The objective is implemented via a well-defined, and in some cases, unique sequence of moves aimed at reaching the set goal. As a rule, this sequence leaves no options for the opponent. Finding a combinational objective allows the player to focus all his energies on efficient execution, that is, the player's analysis may be limited to

2800-457: The cognitive-control network changes more gradually. Because of this difference in change, the cognitive-control network, which usually regulates the socioemotional network, struggles to control the socioemotional network when psychosocial capacities are present. When adolescents are exposed to social and emotional stimuli, their socioemotional network is activated as well as areas of the brain involved in reward processing. Because teens often gain

2870-456: The collection of new information to inform an analysis. New information may be collected through one or more of the various collection disciplines; human source , electronic and communications intercept , imagery or open sources . The nature of the RFI and the urgency placed on it may indicate that some collection types are unsuitable due to the time taken to collect or validate the information gathered. Intelligence gathering disciplines and

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2940-406: The creation of a TALON report: Army regulation 190-45, Law Enforcement Reporting, stated that JPEN may be used to share police intelligence with DOD law enforcement agencies, military police, the U.S. Army Criminal Investigation Command and local, state, federal, and international law enforcement agencies. The domestic collection of data by military agencies was strictly regulated by laws such as

3010-645: The database of "suspicious incidents" in the United States or the Joint Protection Enterprise Network (JPEN). It was an intelligence and law enforcement system that was a near real-time sharing of raw non-validated information among DoD organizations and installations. Feeding into JPEN were intelligence, law enforcement, counterintelligence, and security reports, information from DoD's "Threat and Local Observation Notice" ( TALON ) reporting system of unfiltered information, and other reports. There were seven criteria taken into account in

3080-402: The decision is made to intervene, action is taken to fix the target, confirming that the intervention will have a high probability of success and restricting the ability of the target to take independent action. During the finish stage, the intervention is executed, potentially an arrest or detention or the placement of other collection methods. Following the intervention, exploitation of

3150-402: The decision-making process. Decision-making often occurs in the face of uncertainty about whether one's choices will lead to benefit or harm (see also Risk ). The somatic marker hypothesis is a neurobiological theory of how decisions are made in the face of uncertain outcomes. This theory holds that such decisions are aided by emotions, in the form of bodily states, that are elicited during

3220-431: The deliberation of future consequences and that mark different options for behavior as being advantageous or disadvantageous. This process involves an interplay between neural systems that elicit emotional/bodily states and neural systems that map these emotional/bodily states. A recent lesion mapping study of 152 patients with focal brain lesions conducted by Aron K. Barbey and colleagues provided evidence to help discover

3290-421: The format may be made available for other uses as well and disseminated accordingly. The analysis will be written to a defined classification level with alternative versions potentially available at a number of classification levels for further dissemination. This approach, known as Find-Fix-Finish-Exploit-Assess ( F3EA ), is complementary to the intelligence cycle and focused on the intervention itself, where

3360-529: The founder of predispositioning theory . In his analysis on styles and methods, Katsenelinboigen referred to the game of chess, saying that "chess does disclose various methods of operation, notably the creation of predisposition-methods which may be applicable to other, more complex systems." Katsenelinboigen states that apart from the methods (reactive and selective) and sub-methods randomization , predispositioning, programming), there are two major styles: positional and combinational. Both styles are utilized in

3430-423: The game of chess. The two styles reflect two basic approaches to uncertainty : deterministic (combinational style) and indeterministic (positional style). Katsenelinboigen's definition of the two styles are the following. The combinational style is characterized by: In defining the combinational style in chess, Katsenelinboigen wrote: "The combinational style features a clearly formulated limited objective, namely

3500-411: The information collected, reaching a conclusion along with a measure of confidence around that conclusion. Where sufficient current information already exists, the analysis may be tasked directly without reference to further collection. The analysis is then communicated back to the requester in the format directed, although subject to the constraints on both the RFI and the methods used in the analysis,

3570-517: The leadership of an organisation, based on wide ranges of available overt and covert information (intelligence). Assessments develop in response to leadership declaration requirements to inform decision-making . Assessment may be executed on behalf of a state , military or commercial organisation with ranges of information sources available to each. An intelligence assessment reviews available information and previous assessments for relevance and currency. Where there requires additional information,

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3640-441: The metacognitive knowledge necessary to know when to use any strategies they do possess to change their approach to decision-making. When it comes to the idea of fairness in decision making, children and adults differ much less. Children are able to understand the concept of fairness in decision making from an early age. Toddlers and infants, ranging from 9–21 months, understand basic principles of equality. The main difference found

3710-530: The mind's information-processing ability. Further psychological research has identified individual differences between two cognitive styles: maximizers try to make an optimal decision , whereas satisficers simply try to find a solution that is "good enough". Maximizers tend to take longer making decisions due to the need to maximize performance across all variables and make tradeoffs carefully; they also tend to more often regret their decisions (perhaps because they are more able than satisficers to recognize that

3780-450: The neural mechanisms of emotional intelligence . Decision-making techniques can be separated into two broad categories: group decision-making techniques and individual decision-making techniques. Individual decision-making techniques can also often be applied by a group. A variety of researchers have formulated similar prescriptive steps aimed at improving decision-making. In the 1980s, psychologist Leon Mann and colleagues developed

3850-509: The pieces directly partaking in the combination. This approach is the crux of the combination and the combinational style of play. The positional style is distinguished by: "Unlike the combinational player, the positional player is occupied, first and foremost, with the elaboration of the position that will allow him to develop in the unknown future. In playing the positional style, the player must evaluate relational and material parameters as independent variables. ... The positional style gives

3920-441: The player the opportunity to develop a position until it becomes pregnant with a combination. However, the combination is not the final goal of the positional player – it helps him to achieve the desirable, keeping in mind a predisposition for the future development. The pyrrhic victory is the best example of one's inability to think positionally." The positional style serves to: According to Isabel Briggs Myers ,

3990-484: The private-secret transition) and dissemination conflicts, and can inform ethical standards of conduct among all agents in the intelligence process. Decision-making In psychology , decision-making (also spelled decision making and decisionmaking ) is regarded as the cognitive process resulting in the selection of a belief or a course of action among several possible alternative options. It could be either rational or irrational. The decision-making process

4060-456: The product of interactions between the socioemotional brain network and its cognitive-control network . The socioemotional part of the brain processes social and emotional stimuli and has been shown to be important in reward processing . The cognitive-control network assists in planning and self-regulation. Both of these sections of the brain change over the course of puberty . However, the socioemotional network changes quickly and abruptly, while

4130-399: The rational behavior of the decision maker. The decision maker assesses different alternatives by their utilities and the subjective probability of occurrence. Rational decision-making is often grounded on experience and theories that are able to put this approach on solid mathematical grounds so that subjectivity is reduced to a minimum, see e.g. scenario optimization . Rational decision

4200-482: The rationality of these considerations is from the point of view of the person themselves, so a decision is not irrational just because someone else finds it questionable. In reality, however, there are some factors that affect decision-making abilities and cause people to make irrational decisions – for example, to make contradictory choices when faced with the same problem framed in two different ways (see also Allais paradox ). Rational decision making

4270-508: The relative total priority of each alternative (for instance, if alternatives represent projects competing for funds) when all the criteria are considered simultaneously. Solving such problems is the focus of multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). This area of decision-making, although long established, has attracted the interest of many researchers and practitioners and is still highly debated as there are many MCDA methods which may yield very different results when they are applied to exactly

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4340-586: The same data. This leads to the formulation of a decision-making paradox . Logical decision-making is an important part of all science-based professions, where specialists apply their knowledge in a given area to make informed decisions. For example, medical decision-making often involves a diagnosis and the selection of appropriate treatment. But naturalistic decision-making research shows that in situations with higher time pressure, higher stakes, or increased ambiguities, experts may use intuitive decision-making rather than structured approaches. They may follow

4410-462: The situation and make a better decision. It is important to differentiate between problem solving , or problem analysis, and decision-making. Problem solving is the process of investigating the given information and finding all possible solutions through invention or discovery. Traditionally, it is argued that problem solving is a step towards decision making, so that the information gathered in that process may be used towards decision-making. When

4480-447: The situation at hand. There are said to be three different types of analysis paralysis. On the opposite side of analysis paralysis is the phenomenon called extinction by instinct. Extinction by instinct is the state that a person is in when they make careless decisions without detailed planning or thorough systematic processes. Extinction by instinct can possibly be fixed by implementing a structural system, like checks and balances into

4550-458: The sources and methods used are often highly classified and compartmentalised, with analysts requiring an appropriate high level of security clearance . The process of taking known information about situations and entities of importance to the RFI, characterizing what is known and attempting to forecast future events is termed " all source " assessment, analysis or processing . The analyst uses multiple sources to mutually corroborate, or exclude,

4620-419: The subject of active research from several perspectives: A major part of decision-making involves the analysis of a finite set of alternatives described in terms of evaluative criteria. Then the task might be to rank these alternatives in terms of how attractive they are to the decision-maker(s) when all the criteria are considered simultaneously. Another task might be to find the best alternative or to determine

4690-422: The subject of the assessment is clearly identifiable and provisions exist to make some form of intervention against that subject, the target-centric assessment approach may be used. The subject for action, or target, is identified and efforts are initially made to find the target for further development. This activity will identify where intervention against the target will have the most beneficial effects. When

4760-416: The target is carried out, which may lead to further refinement of the process for related targets. The output from the exploit stage will also be passed into other intelligence assessment activities. The Intelligence Information Cycle leverages secrecy theory and U.S. regulation of classified intelligence to re-conceptualize the traditional intelligence cycle under the following four assumptions: Information

4830-449: The two programs by civil rights groups like the ACLU , and intelligence officials who found the prospect of the military tracking peace groups again to be worrisome. After ACLU filed multiple Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests regarding information gathering on peace groups and NBC did a report citing a Quaker group planning an anti-enlistment action that was listed as a "threat",

4900-563: Was responsible for budgeting, management and accountability. Information Technology was responsible for planning and managing special technology needs of the counterintelligence enterprise. Operational Support planned, directed and managed counterintelligence activities and coordinated offensive counterintelligence campaigns. Training and Development set performance assessment standards and assured that defense counterintelligence training and education programs, as well as instructors, maintained accreditation and certification. CIFA managed

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