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93-409: Apalachicola Bay is part of The National Estuarine Research Reserve System . The region features 1,162 species of plants, and includes the largest natural stand of tupelo trees in the world. The area is also home to 308 species of birds, 186 species of fish, 57 species of mammals, and boasts the highest species density of amphibians and reptiles in all of North America , north of Mexico stated by

186-539: A consequence of climate change , will have a significant impact on the Apalachicola Bay. Extreme weather events and differences in seasonality due to climate change may exacerbate changes in streamflow and sediment load in the Apalachicola. The migration, reproduction and distribution of organisms in the Apalachicola Bay is sensitive to salinity and total suspended solid levels. Additionally, organisms in

279-568: A cooler West Pacific and a warmer East Pacific, leading to a shift of cloudiness and rainfall towards the East Pacific. This situation is called El Niño. The opposite occurs if trade winds are stronger than average, leading to a warmer West Pacific and a cooler East Pacific. This situation is called La Niña and is associated with increased cloudiness and rainfall over the West Pacific. The close relationship between ocean temperatures and

372-650: A decrease in baseflow, resulting in severe drought throughout the ACF River Basin . Florida has experienced a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature between 1970-2009. It has been predicted that air temperatures may increase by 3-4 degrees Celsius due to a twofold increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Climate models in the Apalachicola River basin have allowed researchers to project increases in extreme rainfall intensity and frequency. It has been projected that extreme weather events,

465-602: A decrease in the strength of the Pacific trade winds , and a reduction in rainfall over eastern and northern Australia. La Niña episodes are defined as sustained cooling of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, thus resulting in an increase in the strength of the Pacific trade winds , and the opposite effects in Australia when compared to El Niño. Although the Southern Oscillation Index has

558-426: A high mortality rate in oysters due to low salinity. In oysters, low salinity is known to cause hindrances in gametogenesis , gonad disintegration, delays in spawning , post-settlement mortality, and declining larval and adult filtration rates. However, further research is necessary to provide a widely accepted explanation for the relationship between Apalachicola discharge and oyster fisheries. The Apalachicola Bay

651-489: A larger EP ENSO occurrence, or even displaying opposite conditions from the observed ones in the other Niño regions when accompanied by Modoki variations. ENSO Costero events usually present more localized effects, with warm phases leading to increased rainfall over the coast of Ecuador, northern Peru and the Amazon rainforest , and increased temperatures over the northern Chilean coast, and cold phases leading to droughts on

744-553: A long station record going back to the 1800s, its reliability is limited due to the latitudes of both Darwin and Tahiti being well south of the Equator, so that the surface air pressure at both locations is less directly related to ENSO. To overcome this effect, a new index was created, named the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI). To generate this index, two new regions, centered on

837-411: A negative SSH anomaly (lowered sea level) via contraction. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is a single climate phenomenon that quasi-periodically fluctuates between three phases: Neutral, La Niña or El Niño. La Niña and El Niño are opposite phases which require certain changes to take place in both the ocean and the atmosphere before an event is declared. The cool phase of ENSO is La Niña, with SST in

930-409: A place to play and relax. The pressures on the nation's coast are enormous and the impacts on economies and ecosystems are becoming increasingly evident. Severe storms, climate change, pollution, habitat alteration and rapid population growth threaten the ecological functions that have supported coastal communities throughout history. Estuaries are the connection between the ocean (or Great Lakes) and

1023-517: A quarter of the planet, and particularly in the form of temperature at the ocean surface, can have a significant effect on weather across the entire planet. Tropical instability waves visible on sea surface temperature maps, showing a tongue of colder water, are often present during neutral or La Niña conditions. La Niña is a complex weather pattern that occurs every few years, often persisting for longer than five months. El Niño and La Niña can be indicators of weather changes across

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1116-469: A result can lead to intense storms in some places and droughts in others. El Niño events cause short-term (approximately 1 year in length) spikes in global average surface temperature while La Niña events cause short term surface cooling. Therefore, the relative frequency of El Niño compared to La Niña events can affect global temperature trends on timescales of around ten years. The countries most affected by ENSO are developing countries that are bordering

1209-425: A secondary peak in sea surface temperature across the far eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean sometimes follows the initial peak. An especially strong Walker circulation causes La Niña, which is considered to be the cold oceanic and positive atmospheric phase of the broader El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) weather phenomenon, as well as the opposite of El Niño weather pattern, where sea surface temperature across

1302-553: A variety of regional partners to improve the science in support of habitat restoration, restore coastal habitats, control invasive species, protect habitat through acquisition, and implement land management practices that balance the needs for conservation and public access. The Reserve System's Habitat Mapping and Change Plan was developed in 2007 to establish the framework for mapping habitats in reserves for long-term change related to local sea-level change and human-caused stress from reserve watersheds. The habitat mapping and change plan

1395-422: Is a global climate phenomenon that emerges from variations in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean . Those variations have an irregular pattern but do have some semblance of cycles. The occurrence of ENSO is not predictable. It affects the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics , and has links ( teleconnections ) to higher-latitude regions of the world. The warming phase of

1488-603: Is an oscillation in surface air pressure between the tropical eastern and the western Pacific Ocean waters. The strength of the Southern Oscillation is measured by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The SOI is computed from fluctuations in the surface air pressure difference between Tahiti (in the Pacific) and Darwin, Australia (on the Indian Ocean). El Niño episodes have negative SOI, meaning there

1581-405: Is known as Ekman transport . Colder water from deeper in the ocean rises along the continental margin to replace the near-surface water. This process cools the East Pacific because the thermocline is closer to the ocean surface, leaving relatively little separation between the deeper cold water and the ocean surface. Additionally, the northward-flowing Humboldt Current carries colder water from

1674-520: Is longer, it is classified as an El Niño "episode". It is thought that there have been at least 30 El Niño events between 1900 and 2024, with the 1982–83 , 1997–98 and 2014–16 events among the strongest on record. Since 2000, El Niño events have been observed in 2002–03, 2004–05, 2006–07, 2009–10, 2014–16 , 2018–19, and 2023–24 . Major ENSO events were recorded in the years 1790–93, 1828, 1876–78, 1891, 1925–26, 1972–73, 1982–83, 1997–98, 2014–16, and 2023–24. During strong El Niño episodes,

1767-561: Is lower pressure over Tahiti and higher pressure in Darwin. La Niña episodes on the other hand have positive SOI, meaning there is higher pressure in Tahiti and lower in Darwin. Low atmospheric pressure tends to occur over warm water and high pressure occurs over cold water, in part because of deep convection over the warm water. El Niño episodes are defined as sustained warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, thus resulting in

1860-632: Is managed on daily basis by a lead state agency or university, with input from local partners. Reserve staff work with local communities and regional groups to address natural resource management issues, such as non-point source pollution, habitat restoration and invasive species . Through integrated research and education, the reserves help communities develop strategies to deal successfully with these coastal resource issues. Reserves provide adult audiences with training on estuarine issues of concern in their local communities, offer field classes for K-12 students, and provide estuary education to teachers through

1953-558: Is part of an ongoing dispute between Alabama, Florida and Georgia. The Tri-State Water Wars involve the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) river basin . Beginning in 2007, drought within federal reservoirs has led to a dispute regarding the fate of water flow management within the ACF. The three states have a experienced a long-term dispute regarding the U.S Army Corps of Engineers' (Corps) ability to change

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2046-555: Is supported by additional documents including the NERR Land Cover and Habitat Classification System and associated implementation protocols and documentation. As living laboratories, the reserves are ideal settings to investigate the restoration and protection of estuarine and coastal habitat. Because of their federally protected status, biogeographic diversity, on-site facilities, long-term monitoring programs and data, and professional staff capabilities in science and education,

2139-406: Is typically around 0.5 m (1.5 ft) higher than near Peru because of the buildup of water in the West Pacific. The thermocline , or the transitional zone between the warmer waters near the ocean surface and the cooler waters of the deep ocean , is pushed downwards in the West Pacific due to this water accumulation. The total weight of a column of ocean water is almost the same in

2232-493: Is working to advance estuary, climate & ocean literacy. Estuaries can be used as a powerful context to support learning about the interconnections and interdependencies between terrestrial and ocean systems, what important services they provide for humans, and how to restore and protect them. The National Estuarine Research Reserve System's Coastal Training Program (CTP) was formally initiated in 2001 to provide up-to-date scientific information and skill-building opportunities to

2325-771: The Apalachicola Reserve , 2002. Threatened and endangered species reside in the Apalachicola. Previous and current threatened and endangered species include the Gulf Sturgeon , the Fat threeridge mussel, the Purple bankclimber mussel, and the Chipola slabshell mussel. According to the United States Fish and Wildlife Service , changes in flow rate affect the physiological processes of mussels in

2418-808: The Centralized Data Management Office (CDMO) , which is managed through a grant to the University of South Carolina and is housed at the North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve in South Carolina. SWMP data can be viewed and downloaded from the CDMO. The NERRS Science Collaborative is designed to put Reserve-based science to work for local communities. Administered by the University of Michigan (UM),

2511-528: The International Date Line and 120°W ), including the area off the west coast of South America , as upwelling of cold water occurs less or not at all offshore. This warming causes a shift in the atmospheric circulation, leading to higher air pressure in the western Pacific and lower in the eastern Pacific, with rainfall reducing over Indonesia, India and northern Australia, while rainfall and tropical cyclone formation increases over

2604-644: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and coastal states. The reserves represent different biogeographic regions of the United States. The National Estuarine Research Reserve System protects more than 1.3 million acres of coastal and estuarine habitats for long-term research, water-quality monitoring, education, and coastal stewardship. For thousands of years, coastal and estuarine environments have provided people with food, safe harbors, transportation access, flood control, and

2697-591: The Secretary of Commerce in 2013. The oyster population in Franklin County experienced a 98% decrease. The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission aimed to restore the fishery by prohibiting oyster fishing for five years. Periods of low flow cause an increase in salinity concentrations and in turn, lead to increases in predation rates by stone crabs and oyster drills . Past studies have hypothesized that high rates of freshwater discharge cause

2790-599: The Southern Ocean to the tropics in the East Pacific . The combination of the Humboldt Current and upwelling maintains an area of cooler ocean waters off the coast of Peru. The West Pacific lacks a cold ocean current and has less upwelling as the trade winds are usually weaker than in the East Pacific, allowing the West Pacific to reach warmer temperatures. These warmer waters provide energy for

2883-478: The upward movement of air . As a result, the warm West Pacific has on average more cloudiness and rainfall than the cool East Pacific. ENSO describes a quasi-periodic change of both oceanic and atmospheric conditions over the tropical Pacific Ocean. These changes affect weather patterns across much of the Earth. The tropical Pacific is said to be in one of three states of ENSO (also called "phases") depending on

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2976-475: The Apalachicola Bay. Temperature decreases with rising flow rate, while oxygen concentrations increase. Low flow and dissolved oxygen displayed a direct relationship with mussel mortality in Flint River . Drought in the Apalachicola Bay has led to growing concerns for its threatened and endangered mussel species. The Apalachicola Bay oysters consist of 90% of Florida's annual oyster consumption and 10% of

3069-508: The Apalachicola River Basin are threatened by high flow magnitude and seasonal changes in runoff and sediment load due to climate change. 29°40′23″N 84°57′43″W  /  29.67306°N 84.96194°W  / 29.67306; -84.96194 The National Estuarine Research Reserve System The National Estuarine Research Reserve System is a network of 30 protected areas established by partnerships between

3162-614: The Apalachicola River. The minimum flows to the Apalachicola are necessary to the survival of the species listed under the Endangered Species Act . El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a driver of climate variability on a global scale. Research has shown that baseflow of the Flint River has increased by 10% during El Niño and decreased by 10% during La Niña . Under Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) , La Niña causes

3255-625: The Bjerknes feedback naturally triggers negative feedbacks that end and reverse the abnormal state of the tropical Pacific. This perspective implies that the processes that lead to El Niño and La Niña also eventually bring about their end, making ENSO a self-sustaining process. Other theories view the state of ENSO as being changed by irregular and external phenomena such as the Madden–Julian oscillation , tropical instability waves , and westerly wind bursts . The three phases of ENSO relate to

3348-482: The Coastal Niño Index (ICEN), strong El Niño Costero events include 1957, 1982–83, 1997–98 and 2015–16, and La Niña Costera ones include 1950, 1954–56, 1962, 1964, 1966, 1967–68, 1970–71, 1975–76 and 2013. Currently, each country has a different threshold for what constitutes an El Niño event, which is tailored to their specific interests, for example: In climate change science, ENSO is known as one of

3441-621: The EP and CP types, and some scientists argue that ENSO exists as a continuum, often with hybrid types. The effects of the CP ENSO are different from those of the EP ENSO. The El Niño Modoki is associated with more hurricanes more frequently making landfall in the Atlantic. La Niña Modoki leads to a rainfall increase over northwestern Australia and northern Murray–Darling basin , rather than over

3534-497: The El Niño state. This process is known as Bjerknes feedback . Although these associated changes in the ocean and atmosphere often occur together, the state of the atmosphere may resemble a different ENSO phase than the state of the ocean or vice versa. Because their states are closely linked, the variations of ENSO may arise from changes in both the ocean and atmosphere and not necessarily from an initial change of exclusively one or

3627-496: The El Niños of 2006-07 and 2014-16 were also Central Pacific El Niños. Recent years when La Niña Modoki events occurred include 1973–1974, 1975–1976, 1983–1984, 1988–1989, 1998–1999, 2000–2001, 2008–2009, 2010–2011, and 2016–2017. The recent discovery of ENSO Modoki has some scientists believing it to be linked to global warming. However, comprehensive satellite data go back only to 1979. More research must be done to find

3720-555: The Equator, were defined. The western region is located over Indonesia and the eastern one over the equatorial Pacific, close to the South American coast. However, data on EQSOI goes back only to 1949. Sea surface height (SSH) changes up or down by several centimeters in Pacific equatorial region with the ESNO: El Niño causes a positive SSH anomaly (raised sea level) because of thermal expansion while La Niña causes

3813-531: The Pacific Ocean and are dependent on agriculture and fishing. In climate change science, ENSO is known as one of the internal climate variability phenomena. Future trends in ENSO due to climate change are uncertain, although climate change exacerbates the effects of droughts and floods. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report summarized the scientific knowledge in 2021 for the future of ENSO as follows: "In

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3906-1191: The System-Wide Monitoring Program, working with farmers to develop and monitor best management practices from agriculture, monitoring the impacts of canopy cover on salmon habitats, addressing sedimentation impacts into coastal streams by working with adjacent land owners and evaluating land use impacts through tools such as the Non-Point Source Pollution, Erosion and Control (NSPECT) tool. Coastal and estuarine habitats include marshes, forested wetlands, oyster reefs, seagrass beds, beaches, tidal streams, and riparian forests. These habitats are vital not only for fish, birds, and other wildlife, but for human communities as well. They help to protect against flooding, improve water quality, provide recreational opportunities, and support commercial fisheries and tourism. Restoring habitats helps ecosystems by removing pollutants and invasive species, re-establishing natural ecosystem processes, and re-introducing native plants and other wildlife. The Reserves are working with several NOAA programs and

3999-768: The Teachers on the Estuary program. Reserves also provide long-term water quality monitoring as well as opportunities for both scientists and graduate students to conduct research in a "living laboratory". The National Estuarine Research Reserves serve as living laboratories to support coastal research and long-term monitoring and to provide facilities for on-site staff, visiting scientists and graduate students. They also serve as reference sites for comparative studies on coastal topics such as ecosystem dynamics, human influences on estuarine systems, habitat conservation and restoration, species management, and social science. Additionally,

4092-457: The Walker circulation, which was named after Gilbert Walker who discovered the Southern Oscillation during the early twentieth century. The Walker circulation is an east-west overturning circulation in the vicinity of the equator in the Pacific. Upward air is associated with high sea temperatures, convection and rainfall, while the downward branch occurs over cooler sea surface temperatures in

4185-457: The West Pacific northeast of Australia averages around 28–30 °C (82–86 °F). SSTs in the East Pacific off the western coast of South America are closer to 20 °C (68 °F). Strong trade winds near the equator push water away from the East Pacific and towards the West Pacific. This water is slowly warmed by the Sun as it moves west along the equator. The ocean surface near Indonesia

4278-465: The West Pacific to a depth of about 30 m (90 ft) in the East Pacific. Cooler deep ocean water takes the place of the outgoing surface waters in the East Pacific, rising to the ocean surface in a process called upwelling . Along the western coast of South America, water near the ocean surface is pushed westward due to the combination of the trade winds and the Coriolis effect . This process

4371-429: The asymmetric nature of the warm and cold phases of ENSO, some studies could not identify similar variations for La Niña, both in observations and in the climate models, but some sources could identify variations on La Niña with cooler waters on central Pacific and average or warmer water temperatures on both eastern and western Pacific, also showing eastern Pacific Ocean currents going to the opposite direction compared to

4464-436: The atmospheric and oceanic conditions. When the tropical Pacific roughly reflects the average conditions, the state of ENSO is said to be in the neutral phase. However, the tropical Pacific experiences occasional shifts away from these average conditions. If trade winds are weaker than average, the effect of upwelling in the East Pacific and the flow of warmer ocean surface waters towards the West Pacific lessen. This results in

4557-454: The atmospheric changes alter the sea temperatures that in turn alter the atmospheric winds in a positive feedback. Weaker easterly trade winds result in a surge of warm surface waters to the east and reduced ocean upwelling on the equator . In turn, this leads to warmer sea surface temperatures (called El Niño), a weaker Walker circulation (an east-west overturning circulation in the atmosphere) and even weaker trade winds. Ultimately

4650-455: The central and eastern Pacific and lower pressure through much of the rest of the tropics and subtropics. The two phenomena last a year or so each and typically occur every two to seven years with varying intensity, with neutral periods of lower intensity interspersed. El Niño events can be more intense but La Niña events may repeat and last longer. A key mechanism of ENSO is the Bjerknes feedback (named after Jacob Bjerknes in 1969) in which

4743-784: The coastal zone. A core mission of the Reserves is to protect and conserve the more than 1.3 million acres of coastal and estuarine habitat within reserves and to facilitate improved stewardship of coastal habitats outside reserve boundaries. The Reserve System's stewardship approach uses the best available science to maintain and restore healthy, productive and resilient ecosystems, and disseminates information to regional and national stakeholders. Site-based stewardship strategies assess and respond to threats from coastal development, human use of reserve resources, climate change, and invasive species. Invasive species are species not native to an ecosystem, and whose introduction to that ecosystem can harm

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4836-591: The correlation and study past El Niño episodes. More generally, there is no scientific consensus on how/if climate change might affect ENSO. There is also a scientific debate on the very existence of this "new" ENSO. A number of studies dispute the reality of this statistical distinction or its increasing occurrence, or both, either arguing the reliable record is too short to detect such a distinction, finding no distinction or trend using other statistical approaches, or that other types should be distinguished, such as standard and extreme ENSO. Likewise, following

4929-559: The currents in traditional La Niñas. Coined by the Peruvian Comité Multisectorial Encargado del Estudio Nacional del Fenómeno El Niño (ENFEN), ENSO Costero, or ENSO Oriental, is the name given to the phenomenon where the sea-surface temperature anomalies are mostly focused on the South American coastline, especially from Peru and Ecuador. Studies point many factors that can lead to its occurrence, sometimes accompanying, or being accompanied, by

5022-469: The east. During El Niño, as the sea surface temperatures change so does the Walker Circulation. Warming in the eastern tropical Pacific weakens or reverses the downward branch, while cooler conditions in the west lead to less rain and downward air, so the Walker Circulation first weakens and may reverse.   The Southern Oscillation is the atmospheric component of ENSO. This component

5115-614: The eastern Pacific below average, and air pressure high in the eastern Pacific and low in the western Pacific. The ENSO cycle, including both El Niño and La Niña, causes global changes in temperature and rainfall. If the temperature variation from climatology is within 0.5 °C (0.9 °F), ENSO conditions are described as neutral. Neutral conditions are the transition between warm and cold phases of ENSO. Sea surface temperatures (by definition), tropical precipitation, and wind patterns are near average conditions during this phase. Close to half of all years are within neutral periods. During

5208-479: The eastern Pacific. However, in the 1990s and 2000s, variations of ENSO conditions were observed, in which the usual place of the temperature anomaly (Niño 1 and 2) is not affected, but an anomaly also arises in the central Pacific (Niño 3.4). The phenomenon is called Central Pacific (CP) ENSO, "dateline" ENSO (because the anomaly arises near the dateline ), or ENSO "Modoki" (Modoki is Japanese for "similar, but different"). There are variations of ENSO additional to

5301-404: The eastern equatorial part of the central Pacific Ocean will be lower than normal by 3–5 °C (5.4–9 °F). The phenomenon occurs as strong winds blow warm water at the ocean's surface away from South America, across the Pacific Ocean towards Indonesia. As this warm water moves west, cold water from the deep sea rises to the surface near South America. The movement of so much heat across

5394-627: The eastern portion of the country as in a conventional EP La Niña. Also, La Niña Modoki increases the frequency of cyclonic storms over Bay of Bengal , but decreases the occurrence of severe storms in the Indian Ocean overall. The first recorded El Niño that originated in the central Pacific and moved toward the east was in 1986. Recent Central Pacific El Niños happened in 1986–87, 1991–92, 1994–95, 2002–03, 2004–05 and 2009–10. Furthermore, there were "Modoki" events in 1957–59, 1963–64, 1965–66, 1968–70, 1977–78 and 1979–80. Some sources say that

5487-523: The environment, public health or welfare. Reserves manage for invasive species through preventing new introductions and through managed removal if appropriate. Reserves manage and restore habitat to support species of concern by restoring degraded habitat, enhancing habitat connectivity to support multiple life stages of particular species, managing visitor use pressure during critical life stages and restoring species and habitats such as native oysters and sea grass beds where possible. Reserves also work within

5580-737: The following years: Transitional phases at the onset or departure of El Niño or La Niña can also be important factors on global weather by affecting teleconnections . Significant episodes, known as Trans-Niño, are measured by the Trans-Niño index (TNI). Examples of affected short-time climate in North America include precipitation in the Northwest US and intense tornado activity in the contiguous US. The first ENSO pattern to be recognised, called Eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO, to distinguish if from others, involves temperature anomalies in

5673-409: The globe. Atlantic and Pacific hurricanes can have different characteristics due to lower or higher wind shear and cooler or warmer sea surface temperatures. La Niña events have been observed for hundreds of years, and occurred on a regular basis during the early parts of both the 17th and 19th centuries. Since the start of the 20th century, La Niña events have occurred during

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5766-706: The impacts of non-point source pollution, understanding the role of social science in coastal resource management, and controlling invasive species. The System Wide Monitoring Program (SWMP, pronounced "swamp") was established in 1995 as a means of observing short-term variability and long-term changes in estuarine regions. Each reserve participates in SWMP which provides researchers, resource managers, educators, and other coastal decision makers with standardized, quantitative measures to determine how reserve conditions are changing. By using standard operating procedures for each component across all 30 reserves, SWMP data helps establish

5859-471: The internal climate variability phenomena. The other two main ones are Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation . La Niña impacts the global climate and disrupts normal weather patterns, which can lead to intense storms in some places and droughts in others. El Niño events cause short-term (approximately 1 year in length) spikes in global average surface temperature while La Niña events cause short term cooling. Therefore,

5952-541: The land and humans depend on both for their very existence, so caring for both – and the connection between them – is vital to humans. The System was established by the Coastal Zone Management Act (CZMA) of 1972 as estuarine sanctuaries and was renamed to estuarine research reserves in the 1988 reauthorization of the CZMA. NOAA provides funding, national guidance and technical assistance. Each reserve

6045-427: The last several decades, the number of El Niño events increased, and the number of La Niña events decreased, although observation of ENSO for much longer is needed to detect robust changes. Studies of historical data show the recent El Niño variation is most likely linked to global warming. For example, some results, even after subtracting the positive influence of decadal variation, are shown to be possibly present in

6138-528: The long term, it is very likely that the precipitation variance related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation will increase". The scientific consensus is also that "it is very likely that rainfall variability related to changes in the strength and spatial extent of ENSO teleconnections will lead to significant changes at regional scale". The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is a single climate phenomenon that periodically fluctuates between three phases: Neutral, La Niña or El Niño. La Niña and El Niño are opposite phases in

6231-895: The majority of the reserves have engaged in restoration science and have planned or conducted small to medium-scale restoration projects (0.5 to 250 acres). An inventory of key habitats at the reserves and restoration activities and priorities conducted in 2000 and updated in 2001 is summarized in the NERRS Restoration Science Strategy. Reserves have investigated both engineering and natural approaches to restore areas to approximate natural, unaltered conditions. Several reserves must first address water quality issues and/or restore hydrologic regimes (i.e. sheet flow, tidal exchange, and freshwater drainage) before they can restore terrestrial and aquatic native plant communities and achieve faunal and ecological recovery. El Ni%C3%B1o El Niño–Southern Oscillation ( ENSO )

6324-644: The neutral ENSO phase, other climate anomalies/patterns such as the sign of the North Atlantic Oscillation or the Pacific–North American teleconnection pattern exert more influence. El Niño conditions are established when the Walker circulation weakens or reverses and the Hadley circulation strengthens, leading to the development of a band of warm ocean water in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (approximately between

6417-400: The observed phenomenon of more frequent and stronger El Niño events occurs only in the initial phase of the global warming, and then (e.g., after the lower layers of the ocean get warmer, as well), El Niño will become weaker. It may also be that the stabilizing and destabilizing forces influencing the phenomenon will eventually compensate for each other. The consequences of ENSO in terms of

6510-652: The oscillation which are deemed to occur when specific ocean and atmospheric conditions are reached or exceeded. An early recorded mention of the term "El Niño" ("The Boy" in Spanish) to refer to climate occurred in 1892, when Captain Camilo Carrillo told the geographical society congress in Lima that Peruvian sailors named the warm south-flowing current "El Niño" because it was most noticeable around Christmas. Although pre-Columbian societies were certainly aware of

6603-415: The other. Conceptual models explaining how ENSO operates generally accept the Bjerknes feedback hypothesis. However, ENSO would perpetually remain in one phase if Bjerknes feedback were the only process occurring. Several theories have been proposed to explain how ENSO can change from one state to the next, despite the positive feedback. These explanations broadly fall under two categories. In one view,

6696-469: The oyster catch across the United States. Apalachicola oysters are a critical component of the Bay's ecosystem as well as Florida's economy. The growth and maintenance of oyster reefs depends on water circulation, salinity, temperature, sedimentation, food web dynamics, commercial harvesting and weather. In 2012, Apalachicola oyster populations began to decline , leading to the declaration of a fishery disaster by

6789-634: The people who are responsible for making decisions affecting coastal lands and waters of the United States. Through this program, National Estuarine Research Reserves can ensure that coastal decision-makers have the knowledge and tools they need to address critical resource management issues of concern to local communities. Coastal Training Programs offered by reserves focus on issues such as stormwater management, community development, restoration science, land use planning and others. Since 2006, these reserve-based programs have delivered more than 400 evaluated training events reaching at least 13,000 decision-makers in

6882-417: The peruvian coast, and increased rainfall and decreased temperatures on its mountainous and jungle regions. Because they don't influence the global climate as much as the other types, these events present lesser and weaker correlations to other significant ENSO features, neither always being triggered by Kelvin waves , nor always being accompanied by proportional Southern Oscillation responses. According to

6975-489: The phenomenon, the indigenous names for it have been lost to history. The capitalized term El Niño refers to the Christ Child , Jesus , because periodic warming in the Pacific near South America is usually noticed around Christmas . Originally, the term El Niño applied to an annual weak warm ocean current that ran southwards along the coast of Peru and Ecuador at about Christmas time. However, over time

7068-485: The program funds research projects that bring scientists, intended users of the science, stakeholders, educators, and trainers together to address problems related to coastal pollution and habitat degradation in the context of climate change. The results of these projects is shared throughout the System. The Collaborative also sponsors a UM-based graduate and professional education program focused on helping individuals develop

7161-482: The rate of water discharge such that water storage is preserved, particularly in Lake Lanier . The Corps controls water from Lake Lanier such that it flows into the Apalachicola to meet its minimum flow requirement. The Apalachicola Bay and its oyster industry is dependent on discharge from the Apalachicola River. The Army Corps of Engineers have issued Exceptional Drought Operations that allow for 16% lower flow into

7254-406: The relative frequency of El Niño compared to La Niña events can affect global temperature trends on decadal timescales. There is no sign that there are actual changes in the ENSO physical phenomenon due to climate change. Climate models do not simulate ENSO well enough to make reliable predictions. Future trends in ENSO are uncertain as different models make different predictions. It may be that

7347-658: The replacement of culverts, management of tide gates, and/or removal of dykes. Water quality is a fundamental indicator of the impacts from coastal watersheds and the health of estuarine ecosystems. Good water quality affects coastal habitat quality and human communities that rely on estuaries for recreation and livelihoods. Water quality parameters such as clarity, oxygen content, nutrient concentration, temperature, sedimentation, pH, salinity and others all have profound impacts on natural and human communities in coastal ecosystems. The reserves are addressing water quality through intensive abiotic monitoring of estuarine habitats through

7440-414: The reserves are excellent platforms for advancing the science of restoration, staging demonstration restoration projects, and monitoring their long-term response. Most reserves have extensive areas of undisturbed habitat. These are useful as long-term scientific reference sites for understanding estuarine ecosystems and comparing them with other more disturbed habitats in similar physical settings. To date,

7533-634: The reserves as a system of national reference sites, as well a network of sentinel sites for detecting and understanding the effects of climate change in coastal regions. SWMP currently has three major components that focus on: Abiotic parameters include nutrients, temperature, salinity, pH, dissolved oxygen, and in some cases, contaminants. Biological monitoring includes measures of biodiversity, habitat, and population characteristics. Watershed and land use classifications provide information on types of land use by humans and changes in land cover associated with each reserve. SWMP data for each reserve are managed by

7626-605: The reserves serve as sentinel sites to better understand the effects of climate change. The goals of the Reserve System's research and monitoring program include: Each reserve works on a variety of research projects, in addition to participating in the System-wide Monitoring Program . The topics of these projects are varied and depend on local needs and issues, as well as issues of national concern. Topics may include issues such as investigating

7719-477: The sea surface temperature is known as " El Niño " and the cooling phase as " La Niña ". The Southern Oscillation is the accompanying atmospheric oscillation , which is coupled with the sea temperature change. El Niño is associated with higher than normal air sea level pressure over Indonesia, Australia and across the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic . La Niña has roughly the reverse pattern: high pressure over

7812-414: The skills needed to link science-based information to coastal resource management decisions. National Estuarine Research Reserves are federally designated "to enhance public awareness and understanding of estuarine areas, and provide suitable opportunities for public education and interpretation." Each research reserve is an active member of the local and regional education community and a representative of

7905-590: The state and NOAA stewardship community. The reserve system takes a local approach in advancing estuarine education and generating meaningful experiences for all kinds of people interested in learning about, protecting and restoring estuaries. The Estuary Education Program strives to enhance student, teacher, and public awareness, understanding, and appreciation of estuaries by providing hands-on, investigative field experiences, curriculum and information material, multi-exposure opportunities, teacher training programs, and public outreach events. The Estuary Education Network

7998-431: The strength of the trade winds was first identified by Jacob Bjerknes in 1969. Bjerknes also hypothesized that ENSO was a positive feedback system where the associated changes in one component of the climate system (the ocean or atmosphere) tend to reinforce changes in the other. For example, during El Niño, the reduced contrast in ocean temperatures across the Pacific results in weaker trade winds, further reinforcing

8091-521: The temperature anomalies and precipitation and weather extremes around the world are clearly increasing and associated with climate change . For example, recent scholarship (since about 2019) has found that climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme El Niño events. Previously there was no consensus on whether climate change will have any influence on the strength or duration of El Niño events, as research alternately supported El Niño events becoming stronger and weaker, longer and shorter. Over

8184-618: The term has evolved and now refers to the warm and negative phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The original phrase, El Niño de Navidad , arose centuries ago, when Peruvian fishermen named the weather phenomenon after the newborn Christ. La Niña ("The Girl" in Spanish) is the colder counterpart of El Niño, as part of the broader ENSO climate pattern . In the past, it was also called an anti-El Niño and El Viejo, meaning "the old man." A negative phase exists when atmospheric pressure over Indonesia and

8277-452: The tropical Pacific Ocean. The low-level surface trade winds , which normally blow from east to west along the equator, either weaken or start blowing from the other direction. El Niño phases are known to happen at irregular intervals of two to seven years, and lasts nine months to two years. The average period length is five years. When this warming occurs for seven to nine months, it is classified as El Niño "conditions"; when its duration

8370-442: The warm waters in the western tropical Pacific are depleted enough so that conditions return to normal. The exact mechanisms that cause the oscillation are unclear and are being studied. Each country that monitors the ENSO has a different threshold for what constitutes an El Niño or La Niña event, which is tailored to their specific interests. El Niño and La Niña affect the global climate and disrupt normal weather patterns, which as

8463-659: The watershed to identify, protect, and restore critical habitat for estuarine species such as salmon. Many reserves manage habitat that require fire to survive. Fire management through prescribed burns is particularly challenging as these areas often are located near development. Many reserves manage these fire dependent habitats and monitor habitat and species recovery. Development along our nation's estuaries often results in hydrologic restrictions from roads, dykes, and railroads. These restrictions alter habitat, water quality, and species distribution. Many reserves are addressing these impacts by managing or restoring hydrology through

8556-466: The west Pacific is abnormally high and pressure over the east Pacific is abnormally low, during El Niño episodes, and a positive phase is when the opposite occurs during La Niña episodes, and pressure over Indonesia is low and over the west Pacific is high. On average, the temperature of the ocean surface in the tropical East Pacific is roughly 8–10 °C (14–18 °F) cooler than in the tropical West Pacific . The sea surface temperature (SST) of

8649-441: The western and east Pacific. Because the warmer waters of the upper ocean are slightly less dense than the cooler deep ocean, the thicker layer of warmer water in the western Pacific means the thermocline there must be deeper. The difference in weight must be enough to drive any deep water return flow. Consequently, the thermocline is tilted across the tropical Pacific, rising from an average depth of about 140 m (450 ft) in

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