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Ars Conjectandi

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Antoine Arnauld ( French pronunciation: [ɑ̃twan aʁno] ; 6 February 1612 – 8 August 1694) was a French Catholic theologian , priest, philosopher and mathematician . He was one of the leading intellectuals of the Jansenist group of Port-Royal and had a very thorough knowledge of patristics . Contemporaries called him le Grand to distinguish him from his father.

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100-421: Ars Conjectandi ( Latin for "The Art of Conjecturing") is a book on combinatorics and mathematical probability written by Jacob Bernoulli and published in 1713, eight years after his death, by his nephew, Niklaus Bernoulli . The seminal work consolidated, apart from many combinatorial topics, many central ideas in probability theory , such as the very first version of the law of large numbers : indeed, it

200-469: A defense against Arnauld's book, titled Réponse au libelle intitulé La Théologie morale des Jésuites (1644). Other libels published against Arnauld's Moral Theology of Jesuits included the one written by the Jesuit polemist François Pinthereau (1605–1664), under the pseudonym of the abbé de Boisic, titled Les Impostures et les ignorances du libelle intitulé: La Théologie Morale des Jésuites ( 1644 ), who

300-496: A demonstration of the fact that this sapling branch of mathematics had significant pragmatic applications. De Witt's work was not widely distributed beyond the Dutch Republic, perhaps due to his fall from power and execution by mob in 1672. Apart from the practical contributions of these two work, they also exposed a fundamental idea that probability can be assigned to events that do not have inherent physical symmetry, such as

400-526: A faster pace. It is characterised by greater use of prepositions, and word order that is closer to modern Romance languages, for example, while grammatically retaining more or less the same formal rules as Classical Latin. Ultimately, Latin diverged into a distinct written form, where the commonly spoken form was perceived as a separate language, for instance early French or Italian dialects, that could be transcribed differently. It took some time for these to be viewed as wholly different from Latin however. After

500-743: A few in German , Dutch , Norwegian , Danish and Swedish . Latin is still spoken in Vatican City, a city-state situated in Rome that is the seat of the Catholic Church . The works of several hundred ancient authors who wrote in Latin have survived in whole or in part, in substantial works or in fragments to be analyzed in philology . They are in part the subject matter of the field of classics . Their works were published in manuscript form before

600-404: A few. Famous and well regarded writers included Petrarch, Erasmus, Salutati , Celtis , George Buchanan and Thomas More . Non fiction works were long produced in many subjects, including the sciences, law, philosophy, historiography and theology. Famous examples include Isaac Newton 's Principia . Latin was also used as a convenient medium for translations of important works first written in

700-422: A five-card hand from a standard deck of 52 cards containing 12 court cards could be generalized to a deck with a cards that contained b court cards, and a c -card hand. The fourth section continues the trend of practical applications by discussing applications of probability to civilibus , moralibus , and oeconomicis , or to personal, judicial, and financial decisions. In this section, Bernoulli differs from

800-609: A gambler from Paris named Antoine Gombaud had sent Pascal and other mathematicians several questions on the practical applications of some of these theories; in particular he posed the problem of points , concerning a theoretical two-player game in which a prize must be divided between the players due to external circumstances halting the game. The fruits of Pascal and Fermat's correspondence interested other mathematicians, including Christiaan Huygens , whose De ratiociniis in aleae ludo (Calculations in Games of Chance) appeared in 1657 as

900-432: A long battle with Nicolas Malebranche on the relation of theology to metaphysics . On the whole, public opinion leant to Arnauld's side. When Malebranche complained that his adversary had misunderstood him, Boileau silenced him with the question: "My dear sir, whom do you expect to understand you, if M. Arnauld does not?" Next Arnauld was engaged in an extensive correspondence with Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz , regarding

1000-560: A native language, Medieval Latin was used across Western and Catholic Europe during the Middle Ages as a working and literary language from the 9th century to the Renaissance , which then developed a classicizing form, called Renaissance Latin . This was the basis for Neo-Latin which evolved during the early modern period . In these periods Latin was used productively and generally taught to be written and spoken, at least until

1100-529: A number of treatises related to probability: Between 1703 and 1705, Leibniz corresponded with Jakob after learning about his discoveries in probability from his brother Johann . Leibniz managed to provide thoughtful criticisms on Bernoulli's law of large numbers, but failed to provide Bernoulli with de Witt's work on annuities that he so desired. From the outset, Bernoulli wished for his work to demonstrate that combinatorics and probability theory would have numerous real-world applications in all facets of society—in

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1200-464: A problem, namely that of determining the probability of an event by its relative frequency, was taken as a proof for the existence of God by Bayes. Finally in 1812, Pierre-Simon Laplace published his Théorie analytique des probabilités in which he consolidated and laid down many fundamental results in probability and statistics such as the moment generating function, method of least squares, inductive probability, and hypothesis testing, thus completing

1300-567: A result, the list has variants, as well as alternative names. In addition to the historical phases, Ecclesiastical Latin refers to the styles used by the writers of the Roman Catholic Church from late antiquity onward, as well as by Protestant scholars. The earliest known form of Latin is Old Latin, also called Archaic or Early Latin, which was spoken from the Roman Kingdom , traditionally founded in 753 BC, through

1400-407: A separate language, existing more or less in parallel with the literary or educated Latin, but this is now widely dismissed. The term 'Vulgar Latin' remains difficult to define, referring both to informal speech at any time within the history of Latin, and the kind of informal Latin that had begun to move away from the written language significantly in the post-Imperial period, that led ultimately to

1500-589: A series of correspondences by brothers Ludwig and Christiaan Huygens in 1667, where they realized the difference between mean and median estimates and Christian even interpolated Graunt's life table by a smooth curve, creating the first continuous probability distribution; but their correspondences were not published. Later, Johan de Witt , the then prime minister of the Dutch Republic, published similar material in his 1671 work Waerdye van Lyf-Renten (A Treatise on Life Annuities), which used statistical concepts to determine life expectancy for practical political purposes;

1600-709: A small number of Latin services held in the Anglican church. These include an annual service in Oxford, delivered with a Latin sermon; a relic from the period when Latin was the normal spoken language of the university. In the Western world, many organizations, governments and schools use Latin for their mottos due to its association with formality, tradition, and the roots of Western culture . Canada's motto A mari usque ad mare ("from sea to sea") and most provincial mottos are also in Latin. The Canadian Victoria Cross

1700-429: A sort of informal language academy dedicated to maintaining and perpetuating educated speech. Philological analysis of Archaic Latin works, such as those of Plautus , which contain fragments of everyday speech, gives evidence of an informal register of the language, Vulgar Latin (termed sermo vulgi , "the speech of the masses", by Cicero ). Some linguists, particularly in the nineteenth century, believed this to be

1800-572: A spoken and written language by the scholarship by the Renaissance humanists . Petrarch and others began to change their usage of Latin as they explored the texts of the Classical Latin world. Skills of textual criticism evolved to create much more accurate versions of extant texts through the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries, and some important texts were rediscovered. Comprehensive versions of authors' works were published by Isaac Casaubon , Joseph Scaliger and others. Nevertheless, despite

1900-432: A strictly left-to-right script. During the late republic and into the first years of the empire, from about 75 BC to AD 200, a new Classical Latin arose, a conscious creation of the orators, poets, historians and other literate men, who wrote the great works of classical literature , which were taught in grammar and rhetoric schools. Today's instructional grammars trace their roots to such schools , which served as

2000-693: A vernacular, such as those of Descartes . Latin education underwent a process of reform to classicise written and spoken Latin. Schooling remained largely Latin medium until approximately 1700. Until the end of the 17th century, the majority of books and almost all diplomatic documents were written in Latin. Afterwards, most diplomatic documents were written in French (a Romance language ) and later native or other languages. Education methods gradually shifted towards written Latin, and eventually concentrating solely on reading skills. The decline of Latin education took several centuries and proceeded much more slowly than

2100-665: A vile casket, The most learned mortal who ever wrote;”) … Antoine Arnauld's complete works (thirty-seven volumes in forty-two parts) were published in Paris, 1775–1781. There is a study of his philosophy in Francisque Bouillier , Histoire de la philosophie cartésienne (Paris, 1868); and his mathematical achievements are discussed by Franz Bopp in the 14th volume of the Abhandlung zur Geschichte der mathematischen Wissenschaften (Leipzig, 1902). The links are to

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2200-411: Is Veritas ("truth"). Veritas was the goddess of truth, a daughter of Saturn, and the mother of Virtue. Switzerland has adopted the country's Latin short name Helvetia on coins and stamps, since there is no room to use all of the nation's four official languages . For a similar reason, it adopted the international vehicle and internet code CH , which stands for Confoederatio Helvetica ,

2300-411: Is Ars cogitandi , which was a successful book on logic of the time. The Ars cogitandi consists of four books, with the fourth one dealing with decision-making under uncertainty by considering the analogy to gambling and introducing explicitly the concept of a quantified probability. In the field of statistics and applied probability, John Graunt published Natural and Political Observations Made upon

2400-897: Is a classical language belonging to the Italic branch of the Indo-European languages . Latin was originally spoken by the Latins in Latium (now known as Lazio ), the lower Tiber area around Rome , Italy. Through the expansion of the Roman Republic it became the dominant language in the Italian Peninsula and subsequently throughout the Roman Empire . By the late Roman Republic , Old Latin had evolved into standardized Classical Latin . Vulgar Latin refers to

2500-640: Is a reversal of the original phrase Non terrae plus ultra ("No land further beyond", "No further!"). According to legend , this phrase was inscribed as a warning on the Pillars of Hercules , the rocks on both sides of the Strait of Gibraltar and the western end of the known, Mediterranean world. Charles adopted the motto following the discovery of the New World by Columbus, and it also has metaphorical suggestions of taking risks and striving for excellence. In

2600-404: Is best expressed by his famous reply to Nicole, who complained of feeling tired. "Tired!" echoed Arnauld, "when you have all eternity to rest in?" His energy was not exhausted by purely theological questions. He was one of the first to adopt the philosophy of René Descartes , though with certain orthodox reservations relating to Meditations on First Philosophy ; and between 1683 and 1685 he had

2700-443: Is devoted to the study of the problems regarding the games of chance posed by Christiaan Huygens; during the second period (1685-1686) the investigations are extended to cover processes where the probabilities are not known a priori, but have to be determined a posteriori. Finally, in the last period (1687-1689), the problem of measuring the probabilities is solved. Before the publication of his Ars Conjectandi , Bernoulli had produced

2800-552: Is found in any widespread language, the languages of Spain, France, Portugal, and Italy have retained a remarkable unity in phonological forms and developments, bolstered by the stabilising influence of their common Christian (Roman Catholic) culture. It was not until the Muslim conquest of Spain in 711, cutting off communications between the major Romance regions, that the languages began to diverge seriously. The spoken Latin that would later become Romanian diverged somewhat more from

2900-652: Is largely upon these foundations that Ars Conjectandi is constructed. Apart from these works, Bernoulli certainly possessed or at least knew the contents from secondary sources of the La Logique ou l’Art de Penser as well as Graunt's Bills of Mortality , as he makes explicit reference to these two works. Bernoulli's progress over time can be pursued by means of the Meditationes . Three working periods with respect to his "discovery" can be distinguished by aims and times. The first period, which lasts from 1684 to 1685,

3000-689: Is modelled after the British Victoria Cross which has the inscription "For Valour". Because Canada is officially bilingual, the Canadian medal has replaced the English inscription with the Latin Pro Valore . Spain's motto Plus ultra , meaning "even further", or figuratively "Further!", is also Latin in origin. It is taken from the personal motto of Charles V , Holy Roman Emperor and King of Spain (as Charles I), and

3100-426: Is mostly known because of Pascal's acclaimed writings, which were more fit for the general public than Arnauld's technical essays. Boileau wrote for him a famous epitaph , consecrating his memory as “Au pied de cet autel de structure grossière Gît sans pompe, enfermé dans une vile bière, Le plus savant mortel qui jamais ait écrit;” ... (“At the foot of this rough structure altar Lies without pomp, locked in

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3200-1011: Is taught at many high schools, especially in Europe and the Americas. It is most common in British public schools and grammar schools, the Italian liceo classico and liceo scientifico , the German Humanistisches Gymnasium and the Dutch gymnasium . Occasionally, some media outlets, targeting enthusiasts, broadcast in Latin. Notable examples include Radio Bremen in Germany, YLE radio in Finland (the Nuntii Latini broadcast from 1989 until it

3300-414: Is the probability of achieving at least a certain number of successes from a number of binary events, today named Bernoulli trials , given that the probability of success in each event was the same. Bernoulli shows through mathematical induction that given a the number of favorable outcomes in each event, b the number of total outcomes in each event, d the desired number of successful outcomes, and e

3400-466: Is widely regarded as the founding work of that subject. It also addressed problems that today are classified in the twelvefold way and added to the subjects; consequently, it has been dubbed an important historical landmark in not only probability but all combinatorics by a plethora of mathematical historians. The importance of this early work had a large impact on both contemporary and later mathematicians; for example, Abraham de Moivre . Bernoulli wrote

3500-543: The Corpus Inscriptionum Latinarum (CIL). Authors and publishers vary, but the format is about the same: volumes detailing inscriptions with a critical apparatus stating the provenance and relevant information. The reading and interpretation of these inscriptions is the subject matter of the field of epigraphy . About 270,000 inscriptions are known. The Latin influence in English has been significant at all stages of its insular development. In

3600-583: The Holy See , the primary language of its public journal , the Acta Apostolicae Sedis , and the working language of the Roman Rota . Vatican City is also home to the world's only automatic teller machine that gives instructions in Latin. In the pontifical universities postgraduate courses of Canon law are taught in Latin, and papers are written in the same language. There are

3700-574: The Middle Ages , borrowing from Latin occurred from ecclesiastical usage established by Saint Augustine of Canterbury in the 6th century or indirectly after the Norman Conquest , through the Anglo-Norman language . From the 16th to the 18th centuries, English writers cobbled together huge numbers of new words from Latin and Greek words, dubbed " inkhorn terms ", as if they had spilled from a pot of ink. Many of these words were used once by

3800-483: The Netherlands , finally settling down at Brussels . Here the last sixteen years of his life were spent in incessant controversy with Jesuits, Calvinists and heretics of all kinds. Arnauld gradually evolved away from the rigorous Augustinianism professed by Port-Royal and closer to Thomism , which also postulated the centrality of the " efficacious grace ," under the influence of Nicole. His inexhaustible energy

3900-576: The Roman Rite of the Catholic Church at the Vatican City . The church continues to adapt concepts from modern languages to Ecclesiastical Latin of the Latin language. Contemporary Latin is more often studied to be read rather than spoken or actively used. Latin has greatly influenced the English language , along with a large number of others, and historically contributed many words to

4000-569: The Romance languages . During the Classical period, informal language was rarely written, so philologists have been left with only individual words and phrases cited by classical authors, inscriptions such as Curse tablets and those found as graffiti . In the Late Latin period, language changes reflecting spoken (non-classical) norms tend to be found in greater quantities in texts. As it

4100-457: The Théologie morale des Jésuites (Moral Theology of Jesuits), which would put the base of most of the arguments later used by Pascal in his Provincial Letters denouncing the "relaxed moral" of Jesuit casuistry . Pascal was assisted in this task by Arnauld's nephew Antoine Le Maistre . The Jesuit Nicolas Caussin , former penitentiary to Louis XIII , was charged by his order of writing

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4200-636: The Western Roman Empire fell in 476 and Germanic kingdoms took its place, the Germanic people adopted Latin as a language more suitable for legal and other, more formal uses. While the written form of Latin was increasingly standardized into a fixed form, the spoken forms began to diverge more greatly. Currently, the five most widely spoken Romance languages by number of native speakers are Spanish , Portuguese , French , Italian , and Romanian . Despite dialectal variation, which

4300-593: The confessional brought a motion of censorship voted against him in the Sorbonne, in quite an irregular manner. This motion prompted Pascal to anonymously write the Provincial Letters . For more than twenty years Arnauld dared not appear publicly in Paris, hiding in religious retreat. Pascal, however, failed to save his friend, and in February 1656 Arnauld was ceremonially degraded. Twelve years later

4400-538: The Bills of Mortality also in 1662, initiating the discipline of demography . This work, among other things, gave a statistical estimate of the population of London, produced the first life table, gave probabilities of survival of different age groups, examined the different causes of death, noting that the annual rate of suicide and accident is constant, and commented on the level and stability of sex ratio. The usefulness and interpretation of Graunt's tables were discussed in

4500-637: The British Crown. The motto is featured on all presently minted coinage and has been featured in most coinage throughout the nation's history. Several states of the United States have Latin mottos , such as: Many military organizations today have Latin mottos, such as: Some law governing bodies in the Philippines have Latin mottos, such as: Some colleges and universities have adopted Latin mottos, for example Harvard University 's motto

4600-613: The English lexicon , particularly after the Christianization of the Anglo-Saxons and the Norman Conquest . Latin and Ancient Greek roots are heavily used in English vocabulary in theology , the sciences , medicine , and law . A number of phases of the language have been recognized, each distinguished by subtle differences in vocabulary, usage, spelling, and syntax. There are no hard and fast rules of classification; different scholars emphasize different features. As

4700-599: The Grinch Stole Christmas! , The Cat in the Hat , and a book of fairy tales, " fabulae mirabiles ", are intended to garner popular interest in the language. Additional resources include phrasebooks and resources for rendering everyday phrases and concepts into Latin, such as Meissner's Latin Phrasebook . Some inscriptions have been published in an internationally agreed, monumental, multivolume series,

4800-560: The Law of Large Numbers for the arbitrary random variables was finally provided during first half of 20th century. A significant indirect influence was Thomas Simpson , who achieved a result that closely resembled de Moivre's. According to Simpsons' work's preface, his own work depended greatly on de Moivre's; the latter in fact described Simpson's work as an abridged version of his own. Finally, Thomas Bayes wrote an essay discussing theological implications of de Moivre's results: his solution to

4900-727: The Part III of Ars Conjectandi which applies combinatorics and probability to analyze games of chance commonly played at that time. Abraham de Moivre also wrote extensively on the subject in De mensura sortis: Seu de Probabilitate Eventuum in Ludis a Casu Fortuito Pendentibus of 1711 and its extension The Doctrine of Chances or, a Method of Calculating the Probability of Events in Play of 1718. De Moivre's most notable achievement in probability

5000-467: The United States the unofficial national motto until 1956 was E pluribus unum meaning "Out of many, one". The motto continues to be featured on the Great Seal . It also appears on the flags and seals of both houses of congress and the flags of the states of Michigan, North Dakota, New York, and Wisconsin. The motto's 13 letters symbolically represent the original Thirteen Colonies which revolted from

5100-563: The University of Kentucky, the University of Oxford and also Princeton University. There are many websites and forums maintained in Latin by enthusiasts. The Latin Misplaced Pages has more than 130,000 articles. Italian , French , Portuguese , Spanish , Romanian , Catalan , Romansh , Sardinian and other Romance languages are direct descendants of Latin. There are also many Latin borrowings in English and Albanian , as well as

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5200-605: The afterthought-like tract on calculus has been quoted frequently; most notably by the Scottish mathematician Colin Maclaurin . Jacob's program of applying his art of conjecture to the matters of practical life, which was terminated by his death in 1705, was continued by his nephew Nicolaus Bernoulli , after having taken parts verbatim out of Ars Conjectandi , for his own dissertation entitled De Usu Artis Conjectandi in Jure which

5300-413: The age of 30, while intrigued by combinatorial and probabilistic problems, Bernoulli had not yet read Pascal's work on the "arithmetic triangle" nor de Witt's work on the applications of probability theory: he had earlier requested a copy of the latter from his acquaintance Gottfried Leibniz , but Leibniz failed to provide it. The latter, however, did manage to provide Pascal's and Huygens' work, and thus it

5400-439: The author and then forgotten, but some useful ones survived, such as 'imbibe' and 'extrapolate'. Many of the most common polysyllabic English words are of Latin origin through the medium of Old French . Romance words make respectively 59%, 20% and 14% of English, German and Dutch vocabularies. Those figures can rise dramatically when only non-compound and non-derived words are included. Antoine Arnauld Antoine Arnauld

5500-425: The benefit of those who do not understand Latin. There are also songs written with Latin lyrics . The libretto for the opera-oratorio Oedipus rex by Igor Stravinsky is in Latin. Parts of Carl Orff 's Carmina Burana are written in Latin. Enya has recorded several tracks with Latin lyrics. The continued instruction of Latin is seen by some as a highly valuable component of a liberal arts education. Latin

5600-409: The book was terminated by Bernoulli's death in 1705; thus the book is essentially incomplete when compared with Bernoulli's original vision. The quarrel with his younger brother Johann, who was the most competent person who could have fulfilled Jacob's project, prevented Johann to get hold of the manuscript. Jacob's own children were not mathematicians and were not up to the task of editing and publishing

5700-620: The book's groundbreaking content, writing that it demonstrated Bernoulli's "thorough familiarity with the many facets [of combinatorics]," but its form: "[Ars Conjectandi] is a very well-written book, excellently constructed." Perhaps most recently, notable popular mathematical historian and topologist William Dunham called the paper "the next milestone of probability theory [after the work of Cardano]" as well as "Jakob Bernoulli's masterpiece". It greatly aided what Dunham describes as "Bernoulli's long-established reputation". Bernoulli's work influenced many contemporary and subsequent mathematicians. Even

5800-409: The careful work of Petrarch, Politian and others, first the demand for manuscripts, and then the rush to bring works into print, led to the circulation of inaccurate copies for several centuries following. Neo-Latin literature was extensive and prolific, but less well known or understood today. Works covered poetry, prose stories and early novels, occasional pieces and collections of letters, to name

5900-472: The chances of dying at certain age, unlike say the rolling of a dice or flipping of a coin, simply by counting the frequency of occurrence. Thus, probability could be more than mere combinatorics. In the wake of all these pioneers, Bernoulli produced many of the results contained in Ars Conjectandi between 1684 and 1689, which he recorded in his diary Meditationes . When he began the work in 1684 at

6000-417: The classical definition of probability: if an event has a possible outcomes and we select any b of those such that b  ≤  a , the probability of any of the b occurring is b a {\displaystyle {\begin{smallmatrix}{\frac {b}{a}}\end{smallmatrix}}} . However, his actual influence on mathematical scene was not great; he wrote only one light tome on

6100-415: The classicised Latin that followed through to the present are often grouped together as Neo-Latin , or New Latin, which have in recent decades become a focus of renewed study , given their importance for the development of European culture, religion and science. The vast majority of written Latin belongs to this period, but its full extent is unknown. The Renaissance reinforced the position of Latin as

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6200-465: The country's full Latin name. Some film and television in ancient settings, such as Sebastiane , The Passion of the Christ and Barbarians (2020 TV series) , have been made with dialogue in Latin. Occasionally, Latin dialogue is used because of its association with religion or philosophy, in such film/television series as The Exorcist and Lost (" Jughead "). Subtitles are usually shown for

6300-503: The decline in written Latin output. Despite having no native speakers, Latin is still used for a variety of purposes in the contemporary world. The largest organisation that retains Latin in official and quasi-official contexts is the Catholic Church . The Catholic Church required that Mass be carried out in Latin until the Second Vatican Council of 1962–1965 , which permitted the use of the vernacular . Latin remains

6400-589: The educated and official world, Latin continued without its natural spoken base. Moreover, this Latin spread into lands that had never spoken Latin, such as the Germanic and Slavic nations. It became useful for international communication between the member states of the Holy Roman Empire and its allies. Without the institutions of the Roman Empire that had supported its uniformity, Medieval Latin

6500-407: The eponymous Bernoulli numbers , for instance. Core topics from probability, such as expected value , were also a significant portion of this important work. In Europe, the subject of probability was first formally developed in the 16th century with the work of Gerolamo Cardano , whose interest in the branch of mathematics was largely due to his habit of gambling. He formalized what is now called

6600-652: The final chapter of Van Schooten's Exercitationes Matematicae . In 1665 Pascal posthumously published his results on the eponymous Pascal's triangle , an important combinatorial concept. He referred to the triangle in his work Traité du triangle arithmétique (Traits of the Arithmetic Triangle) as the "arithmetic triangle". In 1662, the book La Logique ou l’Art de Penser was published anonymously in Paris. The authors presumably were Antoine Arnauld and Pierre Nicole , two leading Jansenists , who worked together with Blaise Pascal. The Latin title of this book

6700-491: The final phase in the development of classical probability. Indeed, in light of all this, there is good reason Bernoulli's work is hailed as such a seminal event; not only did his various influences, direct and indirect, set the mathematical study of combinatorics spinning, but even theology was impacted. Latin Latin ( lingua Latina , pronounced [ˈlɪŋɡʷa ɫaˈtiːna] , or Latinum [ɫaˈtiːnʊ̃] )

6800-441: The following formula: In this formula, E is the expected value, p i are the probabilities of attaining each value, and a i are the attainable values. Bernoulli normalizes the expected value by assuming that p i are the probabilities of all the disjoint outcomes of the value, hence implying that p 0  +  p 1  + ... +  p n  = 1. Another key theory developed in this part

6900-703: The invention of printing and are now published in carefully annotated printed editions, such as the Loeb Classical Library , published by Harvard University Press , or the Oxford Classical Texts , published by Oxford University Press . Latin translations of modern literature such as: The Hobbit , Treasure Island , Robinson Crusoe , Paddington Bear , Winnie the Pooh , The Adventures of Tintin , Asterix , Harry Potter , Le Petit Prince , Max and Moritz , How

7000-704: The language of the Roman Rite . The Tridentine Mass (also known as the Extraordinary Form or Traditional Latin Mass) is celebrated in Latin. Although the Mass of Paul VI (also known as the Ordinary Form or the Novus Ordo) is usually celebrated in the local vernacular language, it can be and often is said in Latin, in part or in whole, especially at multilingual gatherings. It is the official language of

7100-440: The large areas where it had come to be natively spoken. However, even after the fall of Western Rome , Latin remained the common language of international communication , science, scholarship and academia in Europe until well into the early 19th century, by which time modern languages had supplanted it in common academic and political usage. Late Latin is the literary language from the 3rd century AD onward. No longer spoken as

7200-467: The late seventeenth century, when spoken skills began to erode. It then became increasingly taught only to be read. Latin grammar is highly fusional , with classes of inflections for case , number , person , gender , tense , mood , voice , and aspect . The Latin alphabet is directly derived from the Etruscan and Greek alphabets . Latin remains the official language of the Holy See and

7300-431: The later part of the Roman Republic , up to 75 BC, i.e. before the age of Classical Latin . It is attested both in inscriptions and in some of the earliest extant Latin literary works, such as the comedies of Plautus and Terence . The Latin alphabet was devised from the Etruscan alphabet . The writing later changed from what was initially either a right-to-left or a boustrophedon script to what ultimately became

7400-541: The latter's views detailed in his " Discourse on Metaphysics " (1686). Arnauld died, aged 82, in Brussels . Popular record for Arnauld's penetration was much increased in his L'Art de penser , commonly known as the Port-Royal Logic , which kept its place as an elementary text-book until the 20th century and is considered a paradigmatical work of term logic . Arnauld came to be regarded as important among

7500-421: The less prestigious colloquial registers , attested in inscriptions and some literary works such as those of the comic playwrights Plautus and Terence and the author Petronius . While often called a "dead language", Latin did not undergo language death . By the 6th to 9th centuries, natural language change eventually resulted in Latin as a vernacular language evolving into distinct Romance languages in

7600-401: The line of Graunt's and de Witt's work— and would serve as a rigorous method of logical reasoning under insufficient evidence, as used in courtrooms and in moral judgements. It was also hoped that the theory of probability could provide comprehensive and consistent method of reasoning, where ordinary reasoning might be overwhelmed by the complexity of the situation. Thus the title Ars Conjectandi

7700-417: The manuscript. Finally Jacob's nephew Niklaus, 7 years after Jacob's death in 1705, managed to publish the manuscript in 1713. Bernoulli's work, originally published in Latin is divided into four parts. It covers most notably his theory of permutations and combinations; the standard foundations of combinatorics today and subsets of the foundational problems today known as the twelvefold way . It also discusses

7800-612: The mathematicians of his time; one critic described him as the Euclid of the 17th century. After his death, his reputation began to wane. Contemporaries admired him as a master of intricate reasoning; on this, Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet , the greatest theologian of the age, agreed with Henri François d'Aguesseau , the greatest lawyer . However, his eagerness to win every argument endeared him to no one. "In spite of myself," Arnauld once said regretfully, "my books are seldom very short." . Despite Arnauld's achievements in various fields, his name

7900-540: The motivation and applications of a sequence of numbers more closely related to number theory than probability; these Bernoulli numbers bear his name today, and are one of his more notable achievements. The first part is an in-depth expository on Huygens' De ratiociniis in aleae ludo . Bernoulli provides in this section solutions to the five problems Huygens posed at the end of his work. He particularly develops Huygens' concept of expected value—the weighted average of all possible outcomes of an event. Huygens had developed

8000-514: The number of events, the probability of at least d successes is The first part concludes with what is now known as the Bernoulli distribution . The second part expands on enumerative combinatorics, or the systematic numeration of objects. It was in this part that two of the most important of the twelvefold ways—the permutations and combinations that would form the basis of the subject—were fleshed out, though they had been introduced earlier for

8100-466: The other varieties, as it was largely separated from the unifying influences in the western part of the Empire. Spoken Latin began to diverge into distinct languages by the 9th century at the latest, when the earliest extant Romance writings begin to appear. They were, throughout the period, confined to everyday speech, as Medieval Latin was used for writing. For many Italians using Latin, though, there

8200-493: The purposes of probability theory. He gives the first non-inductive proof of the binomial expansion for integer exponent using combinatorial arguments. On a note more distantly related to combinatorics, the second section also discusses the general formula for sums of integer powers; the free coefficients of this formula are therefore called the Bernoulli numbers , which influenced Abraham de Moivre's work later, and which have proven to have numerous applications in number theory. In

8300-469: The school of thought known as frequentism , which defined probability in an empirical sense. As a counter, he produces a result resembling the law of large numbers , which he describes as predicting that the results of observation would approach theoretical probability as more trials were held—in contrast, frequents defined probability in terms of the former. Bernoulli was very proud of this result, referring to it as his "golden theorem", and remarked that it

8400-483: The so-called "peace" of Pope Clement IX put an end to his troubles; he was graciously received by Louis XIV , and treated almost as a popular hero. He now set to work with Pierre Nicole on a great work against the Calvinist Protestants : La perpétuité de la foi de l'Église catholique touchant l'eucharistie . Ten years later, however, persecution resumed. Arnauld was compelled to leave France for

8500-422: The subject titled Liber de ludo aleae (Book on Games of Chance), which was published posthumously in 1663. The date which historians cite as the beginning of the development of modern probability theory is 1654, when two of the most well-known mathematicians of the time, Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat, began a correspondence discussing the subject. The two initiated the communication because earlier that year,

8600-461: The term probability from Jacob Bernoulli, which had not been used in all the previous publications on gambling, and both their works were enormously popular. The refinement of Bernoulli's Golden Theorem, regarding the convergence of theoretical probability and empirical probability, was taken up by many notable latter day mathematicians like De Moivre, Laplace, Poisson, Chebyshev, Markov, Borel, Cantelli, Kolmogorov and Khinchin. The complete proof of

8700-420: The text between 1684 and 1689, including the work of mathematicians such as Christiaan Huygens , Gerolamo Cardano , Pierre de Fermat , and Blaise Pascal . He incorporated fundamental combinatorial topics such as his theory of permutations and combinations (the aforementioned problems from the twelvefold way) as well as those more distantly connected to the burgeoning subject: the derivation and properties of

8800-474: The third part, Bernoulli applies the probability techniques from the first section to the common chance games played with playing cards or dice. He does not feel the necessity to describe the rules and objectives of the card games he analyzes. He presents probability problems related to these games and, once a method had been established, posed generalizations. For example, a problem involving the expected number of "court cards"—jack, queen, and king—one would pick in

8900-407: Was "a problem in which I've engaged myself for twenty years". This early version of the law is known today as either Bernoulli's theorem or the weak law of large numbers, as it is less rigorous and general than the modern version. After these four primary expository sections, almost as an afterthought, Bernoulli appended to Ars Conjectandi a tract on calculus , which concerned infinite series . It

9000-515: Was a reprint of five dissertations he had published between 1686 and 1704. Ars Conjectandi is considered a landmark work in combinatorics and the founding work of mathematical probability. Among others, an anthology of great mathematical writings published by Elsevier and edited by historian Ivor Grattan-Guinness describes the studies set out in the work "[occupying] mathematicians throughout 18th and 19th centuries"—an influence lasting three centuries. Statistician Anthony Edwards praised not only

9100-498: Was also the author of a critical history of Jansenism titled La Naissance du Jansénisme découverte à Monsieur le Chancelier (The Birth of Jansenism Revealed to Sir the Chancellor, Leuven, 1654 ). During the formulary controversy which opposed Jesuits to Jansenists concerning the orthodoxy of Jansenius' propositions, Arnauld was forced to go into hiding. In 1655 two very outspoken Lettres à un duc et pair on Jesuit methods in

9200-574: Was born in Paris to the Arnauld family . The twentieth and youngest child of the original Antoine Arnauld , he was originally intended for the bar, but decided instead to study theology at the Sorbonne . Here he was brilliantly successful, and his career was flourishing when he came under the influence of Jean du Vergier de Hauranne , the spiritual director and leader of the convent of Port-Royal, and

9300-662: Was chosen: a link to the concept of ars inveniendi from scholasticism , which provided the symbolic link to pragmatism he desired and also as an extension of the prior Ars Cogitandi . In Bernoulli's own words, the "art of conjecture" is defined in Chapter II of Part IV of his Ars Conjectandi as: The art of measuring, as precisely as possible, probabilities of things, with the goal that we would be able always to choose or follow in our judgments and actions that course, which will have been determined to be better, more satisfactory, safer or more advantageous. The development of

9400-583: Was drawn in the direction of Jansenism . His book, De la fréquente Communion (1643), was an important step in making the aims and ideals of this movement intelligible to the general public. It attracted controversy by being against frequent communion . Furthermore, in the frame of the controversy around Jansenius ' Augustinus , during which the Jesuits attacked the Jansenists claiming they were heretics similar to Calvinists , Arnauld wrote in defense

9500-413: Was free to develop on its own, there is no reason to suppose that the speech was uniform either diachronically or geographically. On the contrary, Romanised European populations developed their own dialects of the language, which eventually led to the differentiation of Romance languages . Late Latin is a kind of written Latin used in the 3rd to 6th centuries. This began to diverge from Classical forms at

9600-496: Was much more liberal in its linguistic cohesion: for example, in classical Latin sum and eram are used as auxiliary verbs in the perfect and pluperfect passive, which are compound tenses. Medieval Latin might use fui and fueram instead. Furthermore, the meanings of many words were changed and new words were introduced, often under influence from the vernacular. Identifiable individual styles of classically incorrect Latin prevail. Renaissance Latin, 1300 to 1500, and

9700-441: Was no complete separation between Italian and Latin, even into the beginning of the Renaissance . Petrarch for example saw Latin as a literary version of the spoken language. Medieval Latin is the written Latin in use during that portion of the post-classical period when no corresponding Latin vernacular existed, that is from around 700 to 1500 AD. The spoken language had developed into the various Romance languages; however, in

9800-439: Was published already in 1709. Nicolas finally edited and assisted in the publication of Ars conjectandi in 1713. Later Nicolaus also edited Jacob Bernoulli's complete works and supplemented it with results taken from Jacob's diary. Pierre Rémond de Montmort , in collaboration with Nicolaus Bernoulli, wrote a book on probability Essay d'analyse sur les jeux de hazard which appeared in 1708, which can be seen as an extension of

9900-482: Was shut down in June 2019), and Vatican Radio & Television, all of which broadcast news segments and other material in Latin. A variety of organisations, as well as informal Latin 'circuli' ('circles'), have been founded in more recent times to support the use of spoken Latin. Moreover, a number of university classics departments have begun incorporating communicative pedagogies in their Latin courses. These include

10000-405: Was the discovery of the first instance of central limit theorem , by which he was able to approximate the binomial distribution with the normal distribution . To achieve this De Moivre developed an asymptotic sequence for the factorial function —- which we now refer to as Stirling's approximation —- and Bernoulli's formula for the sum of powers of numbers. Both Montmort and de Moivre adopted

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