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102-508: In the Plan, the US agreed to decommission all of its atomic weapons and transfer nuclear technology on the condition that all other countries pledged not to produce atomic weapons and agreed to an adequate system of inspection, including monitoring, policing, and sanctions. The Plan also proposed to internationalize fission energy via an International Atomic Development Authority, which would exercise

204-542: A New York Times Best Seller . The book argues that superintelligence is possible and explores different types of superintelligences, their cognition, the associated risks. He also presents technical and strategic considerations on how to make it safe. Bostrom explores multiple possible paths to superintelligence, including whole brain emulation and human intelligence enhancement, but focuses on artificial general intelligence , explaining that electronic devices have many advantages over biological brains. Bostrom draws

306-686: A British Academy Postdoctoral Fellow at the University of Oxford from 2002 to 2005. Bostrom's research concerns the future of humanity and long-term outcomes. He discusses existential risk , which he defines as one in which an "adverse outcome would either annihilate Earth-originating intelligent life or permanently and drastically curtail its potential". Bostrom is mostly concerned about anthropogenic risks, which are risks arising from human activities, particularly from new technologies such as advanced artificial intelligence, molecular nanotechnology , or synthetic biology . In 2005, Bostrom founded

408-473: A UN Security Council member with veto privileges , was anti-communist and aligned with the US at this time . The USSR counter-proposal insisted that America eliminate its own nuclear weapons first before considering any proposals for a system of controls and inspections. Although the Soviets showed further interest in the cause of arms control after they became a nuclear power in 1949, and particularly after

510-569: A conventional bomb can devastate an entire city by blast, fire, and radiation . Since they are weapons of mass destruction , the proliferation of nuclear weapons is a focus of international relations policy. Nuclear weapons have been deployed twice in war , both by the United States against the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945 during World War II . Nuclear weapons have only twice been used in warfare, both times by

612-714: A 1996 listserv email he sent as a postgrad where he had stated that he thought "Blacks are more stupid than whites", and where he also used the word " niggers " in a description of how he thought this statement might be perceived by others. The apology, posted on his website, stated that "the invocation of a racial slur was repulsive" and that he "completely repudiate[d] this disgusting email". The email has been described as "racist" in several news sources. According to Andrew Anthony of The Guardian , "The apology did little to placate Bostrom’s critics, not least because he conspicuously failed to withdraw his central contention regarding race and intelligence , and seemed to make

714-469: A Solved World (2024). Bostrom believes that advances in artificial intelligence (AI) may lead to superintelligence , which he defines as "any intellect that greatly exceeds the cognitive performance of humans in virtually all domains of interest". He views this as a major source of opportunities and existential risks. Born as Niklas Boström in 1973 in Helsingborg , Sweden, he disliked school at

816-696: A conference—called for in the manifesto—in Pugwash, Nova Scotia , Eaton's birthplace. This conference was to be the first of the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs , held in July 1957. By the 1960s, steps were taken to limit both the proliferation of nuclear weapons to other countries and the environmental effects of nuclear testing . The Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (1963) restricted all nuclear testing to underground nuclear testing , to prevent contamination from nuclear fallout, whereas

918-486: A distinction between final goals and instrumental goals . A final goal is what an agent tries to achieve for its own intrinsic value. Instrumental goals are just intermediary steps towards final goals. Bostrom contends there are instrumental goals that will be shared by most sufficiently intelligent agents because they are generally useful to achieve any objective (e.g. preserving the agent's own existence or current goals, acquiring resources, improving its cognition...), this

1020-486: A dragon that demands a tribute of thousands of people every day. The story explores how status quo bias and learned helplessness can prevent people from taking action to defeat aging even when the means to do so are at their disposal. YouTuber CGP Grey created an animated version of the story. With philosopher Toby Ord , he proposed the reversal test in 2006. Given humans' irrational status quo bias, how can one distinguish between valid criticisms of proposed changes in

1122-458: A faster and less vulnerable attack, the development of long-range intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) has given some nations the ability to plausibly deliver missiles anywhere on the globe with a high likelihood of success. More advanced systems, such as multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), can launch multiple warheads at different targets from one missile, reducing

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1224-656: A fission ("atomic") bomb released an amount of energy approximately equal to 20,000 tons of TNT (84  TJ ). The first thermonuclear ("hydrogen") bomb test released energy approximately equal to 10 million tons of TNT (42 PJ). Nuclear bombs have had yields between 10 tons TNT (the W54 ) and 50 megatons for the Tsar Bomba (see TNT equivalent ). A thermonuclear weapon weighing as little as 600 pounds (270 kg) can release energy equal to more than 1.2 megatonnes of TNT (5.0 PJ). A nuclear device no larger than

1326-492: A fission bomb to initiate them. Such a device might provide a simpler path to thermonuclear weapons than one that required the development of fission weapons first, and pure fusion weapons would create significantly less nuclear fallout than other thermonuclear weapons because they would not disperse fission products. In 1998, the United States Department of Energy divulged that the United States had, "...made

1428-421: A fusion weapon as of January 2016 , though this claim is disputed. Thermonuclear weapons are considered much more difficult to successfully design and execute than primitive fission weapons. Almost all of the nuclear weapons deployed today use the thermonuclear design because it results in an explosion hundreds of times stronger than that of a fission bomb of similar weight. Thermonuclear bombs work by using

1530-534: A human trait and criticisms merely motivated by resistance to change? The reversal test attempts to do this by asking whether it would be a good thing if the trait was altered in the opposite direction. Bostrom's work also considers potential dysgenic effects in human populations but he thinks genetic engineering can provide a solution and that "In any case, the time-scale for human natural genetic evolution seems much too grand for such developments to have any significant effect before other developments will have made

1632-399: A large amount of the total energy output. All existing nuclear weapons derive some of their explosive energy from nuclear fission reactions. Weapons whose explosive output is exclusively from fission reactions are commonly referred to as atomic bombs or atom bombs (abbreviated as A-bombs ). This has long been noted as something of a misnomer , as their energy comes from the nucleus of

1734-598: A messy corpus of ideas that emerged at the margins of academic thought." In his 2024 book, Deep Utopia: Life and Meaning in a Solved World , Bostrom explores the concept of an ideal life, if humanity transitions successfully into a post-superintelligence world. Bostrom notes that the question is "not how interesting a future is to look at, but how good it is to live in." He outlines some technologies that he considers physically possible in theory and available at technological maturity, such as cognitive enhancement , reversal of aging , arbitrary sensory inputs (taste, sound...), or

1836-577: A monopoly of mining uranium and thorium , refining the ores, owning materials, and constructing and operating nuclear plants. This Authority would fall under the United Nations Atomic Energy Commission . In short, the plan proposed to: In presenting his plan to the United Nations , Baruch stated: We are here to make a choice between the quick and the dead. That is our business. Behind the black portent of

1938-496: A mutually beneficial way where all of these different forms can flourish and thrive". Bostrom has published numerous articles on anthropic reasoning , as well as the book Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy . In the book, he criticizes previous formulations of the anthropic principle, including those of Brandon Carter , John Leslie , John Barrow , and Frank Tipler . Bostrom believes that

2040-472: A nation's economic electronics-based infrastructure. Because the effect is most effectively produced by high altitude nuclear detonations (by military weapons delivered by air, though ground bursts also produce EMP effects over a localized area), it can produce damage to electronics over a wide, even continental, geographical area. Research has been done into the possibility of pure fusion bombs : nuclear weapons that consist of fusion reactions without requiring

2142-537: A new nuclear strategy, one that is distinct from that which gave relative stability during the Cold War. Since 1996, the United States has had a policy of allowing the targeting of its nuclear weapons at terrorists armed with weapons of mass destruction . Robert Gallucci argues that although traditional deterrence is not an effective approach toward terrorist groups bent on causing a nuclear catastrophe, Gallucci believes that "the United States should instead consider

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2244-425: A nuclear war between two nations would result in mutual annihilation. From this point of view, the significance of nuclear weapons is to deter war because any nuclear war would escalate out of mutual distrust and fear, resulting in mutually assured destruction . This threat of national, if not global, destruction has been a strong motivation for anti-nuclear weapons activism. Critics from the peace movement and within

2346-411: A nuclear weapon from another country by threatening nuclear retaliation is known as the strategy of nuclear deterrence . The goal in deterrence is to always maintain a second strike capability (the ability of a country to respond to a nuclear attack with one of its own) and potentially to strive for first strike status (the ability to destroy an enemy's nuclear forces before they could retaliate). During

2448-527: A nuclear weapon is a gravity bomb dropped from aircraft ; this was the method used by the United States against Japan in 1945. This method places few restrictions on the size of the weapon. It does, however, limit attack range, response time to an impending attack, and the number of weapons that a country can field at the same time. With miniaturization, nuclear bombs can be delivered by both strategic bombers and tactical fighter-bombers . This method

2550-409: A nuclear weapon to its target is an important factor affecting both nuclear weapon design and nuclear strategy . The design, development, and maintenance of delivery systems are among the most expensive parts of a nuclear weapons program; they account, for example, for 57% of the financial resources spent by the United States on nuclear weapons projects since 1940. The simplest method for delivering

2652-433: A nuclear weapon with suitable materials (such as cobalt or gold ) creates a weapon known as a salted bomb . This device can produce exceptionally large quantities of long-lived radioactive contamination . It has been conjectured that such a device could serve as a "doomsday weapon" because such a large quantity of radioactivities with half-lives of decades, lifted into the stratosphere where winds would distribute it around

2754-421: A policy of expanded deterrence, which focuses not solely on the would-be nuclear terrorists but on those states that may deliberately transfer or inadvertently leak nuclear weapons and materials to them. By threatening retaliation against those states, the United States may be able to deter that which it cannot physically prevent.". Graham Allison makes a similar case, arguing that the key to expanded deterrence

2856-510: A significant portion of their energy from fission reactions used to "trigger" fusion reactions, and fusion reactions can themselves trigger additional fission reactions. Only six countries—the United States , Russia , the United Kingdom , China , France , and India —have conducted thermonuclear weapon tests. Whether India has detonated a "true" multi-staged thermonuclear weapon is controversial. North Korea claims to have tested

2958-550: A substantial investment" in the past to develop pure fusion weapons, but that, "The U.S. does not have and is not developing a pure fusion weapon", and that, "No credible design for a pure fusion weapon resulted from the DOE investment". Nuclear isomers provide a possible pathway to fissionless fusion bombs. These are naturally occurring isotopes ( Hf being a prominent example) which exist in an elevated energy state. Mechanisms to release this energy as bursts of gamma radiation (as in

3060-505: A sufficient strategic advantage would employ it to establish a benign 'singleton' or form of global unity. Nuclear weapon A nuclear weapon is an explosive device that derives its destructive force from nuclear reactions , either fission (fission bomb) or a combination of fission and fusion reactions ( thermonuclear bomb ), producing a nuclear explosion . Both bomb types release large quantities of energy from relatively small amounts of matter . The first test of

3162-460: A superintelligence could be catastrophic: Suppose we give an A.I. the goal to make humans smile. When the A.I. is weak, it performs useful or amusing actions that cause its user to smile. When the A.I. becomes superintelligent, it realizes that there is a more effective way to achieve this goal: take control of the world and stick electrodes into the facial muscles of humans to cause constant, beaming grins. Bostrom explores several pathways to reduce

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3264-492: A superintelligence. Such a superintelligence could have vastly superior capabilities, notably in strategizing, social manipulation, hacking or economic productivity. With such capabilities, a superintelligence could outwit humans and take over the world, establishing a singleton (which is "a world order in which there is at the global level a single decision-making agency" ) and optimizing the world according to its final goals. Bostrom argues that giving simplistic final goals to

3366-420: A superintelligent genie locked up in its bottle forever. Sooner or later, it will out". He thus suggests that in order to be safe for humanity, superintelligence must be aligned with morality or human values so that it is "fundamentally on our side". Potential AI normativity frameworks include Yudkowsky 's coherent extrapolated volition (human values improved via extrapolation), moral rightness (doing what

3468-487: A young age and spent his last year of high school learning from home. He was interested in a wide variety of academic areas, including anthropology, art, literature, and science. He received a B.A. degree from the University of Gothenburg in 1994. He then earned an M.A. degree in philosophy and physics from Stockholm University and an MSc degree in computational neuroscience from King's College London in 1996. During his time at Stockholm University, he researched

3570-675: Is a philosopher known for his work on existential risk , the anthropic principle , human enhancement ethics, whole brain emulation , superintelligence risks , and the reversal test . He was the founding director of the now dissolved Future of Humanity Institute at the University of Oxford and is now Principal Researcher at the Macrostrategy Research Initiative. Bostrom is the author of Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy (2002), Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies (2014) and Deep Utopia: Life and Meaning in

3672-420: Is a thermonuclear weapon that yields a relatively small explosion but a relatively large amount of neutron radiation . Such a weapon could, according to tacticians, be used to cause massive biological casualties while leaving inanimate infrastructure mostly intact and creating minimal fallout. Because high energy neutrons are capable of penetrating dense matter, such as tank armor, neutron warheads were procured in

3774-707: Is affected by paradoxes or counterintuitive implications in certain thought experiments. He suggests that a way forward may involve extending SSA into the Strong Self-Sampling Assumption (SSSA), which replaces "observers" in the SSA definition with "observer-moments". In later work, he proposed with Milan M. Ćirković and Anders Sandberg the phenomenon of anthropic shadow , an observation selection effect that prevents observers from observing certain kinds of catastrophes in their recent geological and evolutionary past. They suggest that events that lie in

3876-456: Is analogous to identifying a criminal by fingerprints. "The goal would be twofold: first, to deter leaders of nuclear states from selling weapons to terrorists by holding them accountable for any use of their weapons; second, to give leaders every incentive to tightly secure their nuclear weapons and materials." According to the Pentagon's June 2019 " Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations " of

3978-403: Is coming up with ways of tracing nuclear material to the country that forged the fissile material. "After a nuclear bomb detonates, nuclear forensics cops would collect debris samples and send them to a laboratory for radiological analysis. By identifying unique attributes of the fissile material, including its impurities and contaminants, one could trace the path back to its origin." The process

4080-481: Is for the purpose of achieving different yields for different situations , and in manipulating design elements to attempt to minimize weapon size, radiation hardness or requirements for special materials, especially fissile fuel or tritium. Some nuclear weapons are designed for special purposes; most of these are for non-strategic (decisively war-winning) purposes and are referred to as tactical nuclear weapons . The neutron bomb purportedly conceived by Sam Cohen

4182-445: Is morally right), and moral permissibility (following humanity's coherent extrapolated volition except when it's morally impermissible). Bostrom warns that an existential catastrophe can also occur from AI being misused by humans for destructive purposes, or from humans failing to take into account the potential moral status of digital minds. Despite these risks, he says that machine superintelligence seems involved at some point in "all

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4284-503: Is no evidence that it is feasible beyond the military domain. However, the U.S. Air Force funded studies of the physics of antimatter in the Cold War , and began considering its possible use in weapons, not just as a trigger, but as the explosive itself. A fourth generation nuclear weapon design is related to, and relies upon, the same principle as antimatter-catalyzed nuclear pulse propulsion . Most variation in nuclear weapon design

4386-409: Is not a fusion bomb. In the boosted bomb, the neutrons produced by the fusion reactions serve primarily to increase the efficiency of the fission bomb. There are two types of boosted fission bomb: internally boosted, in which a deuterium-tritium mixture is injected into the bomb core, and externally boosted, in which concentric shells of lithium-deuteride and depleted uranium are layered on the outside of

4488-490: Is not clear that this has ever been implemented, and their plausible use in nuclear weapons is a matter of dispute. The other basic type of nuclear weapon produces a large proportion of its energy in nuclear fusion reactions. Such fusion weapons are generally referred to as thermonuclear weapons or more colloquially as hydrogen bombs (abbreviated as H-bombs ), as they rely on fusion reactions between isotopes of hydrogen ( deuterium and tritium ). All such weapons derive

4590-750: Is remembered that America still had an unbroken nuclear monopoly... Unfortunately, there were features of the Baruch Proposal which Russia found unacceptable, as, indeed, was to be expected. It was Stalin's Russia, flushed with pride in the victory over the Germans, suspicious (not without reason) of the Western Powers, and aware that in the United Nations it could almost always be outvoted. Scholars such as David S. Painter , Melvyn Leffler , and James Carroll have questioned whether or not

4692-409: Is the concept of instrumental convergence . On the other side, he writes that virtually any level of intelligence can in theory be combined with virtually any final goal (even absurd final goals, e.g. making paperclips ), a concept he calls the orthogonality thesis . He argues that an AI with the ability to improve itself might initiate an intelligence explosion , resulting (potentially rapidly) in

4794-558: Is the only country to have independently developed and then renounced and dismantled its nuclear weapons. The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons aims to reduce the spread of nuclear weapons, but there are different views of its effectiveness. There are two basic types of nuclear weapons: those that derive the majority of their energy from nuclear fission reactions alone, and those that use fission reactions to begin nuclear fusion reactions that produce

4896-454: Is the primary means of nuclear weapons delivery; the majority of U.S. nuclear warheads, for example, are free-fall gravity bombs, namely the B61 , which is being improved upon to this day. Preferable from a strategic point of view is a nuclear weapon mounted on a missile , which can use a ballistic trajectory to deliver the warhead over the horizon. Although even short-range missiles allow for

4998-434: Is too far away for the risk to be significant. Yann LeCun considers that there is no existential risk, asserting that superintelligent AI will have no desire for self-preservation and that experts can be trusted to make it safe. Raffi Khatchadourian wrote that Bostrom's book on superintelligence "is not intended as a treatise of deep originality; Bostrom's contribution is to impose the rigors of analytic philosophy on

5100-504: The Fermi paradox . In a paper called "The Vulnerable World Hypothesis", Bostrom suggests that there may be some technologies that destroy human civilization by default when discovered. Bostrom proposes a framework for classifying and dealing with these vulnerabilities. He also gives counterfactual thought experiments of how such vulnerabilities could have historically occurred, e.g. if nuclear weapons had been easier to develop or had ignited

5202-626: The Future of Humanity Institute which, until its shutdown in 2024, researched the far future of human civilization. He is also an adviser to the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk . In the 2008 essay collection, Global Catastrophic Risks , editors Bostrom and Milan M. Ćirković characterize the relationship between existential risk and the broader class of global catastrophic risks, and link existential risk to observer selection effects and

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5304-695: The Starfish Prime high-altitude nuclear test in 1962, an unexpected effect was produced which is called a nuclear electromagnetic pulse . This is an intense flash of electromagnetic energy produced by a rain of high-energy electrons which in turn are produced by a nuclear bomb's gamma rays. This flash of energy can permanently destroy or disrupt electronic equipment if insufficiently shielded. It has been proposed to use this effect to disable an enemy's military and civilian infrastructure as an adjunct to other nuclear or conventional military operations. By itself it could as well be useful to terrorists for crippling

5406-515: The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (1968) attempted to place restrictions on the types of activities signatories could participate in, with the goal of allowing the transference of non-military nuclear technology to member countries without fear of proliferation. Nick Bostrom Nick Bostrom ( / ˈ b ɒ s t r əm / BOST -rəm ; Swedish : Niklas Boström [ˈnɪ̌kːlas ˈbûːstrœm] ; born 10 March 1973)

5508-676: The Tsar Bomba of the USSR, which released an energy equivalent of over 50 megatons of TNT (210 PJ), was a three-stage weapon. Most thermonuclear weapons are considerably smaller than this, due to practical constraints from missile warhead space and weight requirements. In the early 1950s the Livermore Laboratory in the United States had plans for the testing of two massive bombs, Gnomon and Sundial , 1 gigaton of TNT and 10 gigatons of TNT respectively. Fusion reactions do not create fission products, and thus contribute far less to

5610-575: The United States against Japan at the end of World War II . On August 6, 1945, the United States Army Air Forces (USAAF) detonated a uranium gun-type fission bomb nicknamed " Little Boy " over the Japanese city of Hiroshima ; three days later, on August 9, the USAAF detonated a plutonium implosion-type fission bomb nicknamed " Fat Man " over the Japanese city of Nagasaki . These bombings caused injuries that resulted in

5712-545: The United States , the Soviet Union (succeeded as a nuclear power by Russia ), the United Kingdom , France , China , India , Pakistan , and North Korea . Israel is believed to possess nuclear weapons, though, in a policy of deliberate ambiguity , it does not acknowledge having them. Germany , Italy , Turkey , Belgium , the Netherlands , and Belarus are nuclear weapons sharing states. South Africa

5814-712: The World's Top Thinkers . Bostrom has provided policy advice and consulted for many governments and organizations. He gave evidence to the House of Lords , Select Committee on Digital Skills. He is an advisory board member for the Machine Intelligence Research Institute , Future of Life Institute , and an external advisor for the Cambridge Centre for the Study of Existential Risk . In January 2023, Bostrom issued an apology for

5916-483: The existential risk from AI . He emphasizes the importance of international collaboration, notably to reduce race to the bottom and AI arms race dynamics. He suggests potential techniques to help control AI, including containment, stunting AI capabilities or knowledge, narrowing the operating context (e.g. to question-answering), or "tripwires" (diagnostic mechanisms that can lead to a shutdown). But Bostrom contends that "we should not be confident in our ability to keep

6018-424: The hafnium controversy ) have been proposed as possible triggers for conventional thermonuclear reactions. Antimatter , which consists of particles resembling ordinary matter particles in most of their properties but having opposite electric charge , has been considered as a trigger mechanism for nuclear weapons. A major obstacle is the difficulty of producing antimatter in large enough quantities, and there

6120-614: The head of government or head of state . Despite controls and regulations governing nuclear weapons, there is an inherent danger of "accidents, mistakes, false alarms, blackmail, theft, and sabotage". In the late 1940s, lack of mutual trust prevented the United States and the Soviet Union from making progress on arms control agreements. The Russell–Einstein Manifesto was issued in London on July 9, 1955, by Bertrand Russell in

6222-436: The tropopause into the stratosphere , where the calm non-turbulent winds permit the debris to travel great distances from the burst, eventually settling and unpredictably contaminating areas far removed from the target of the explosion. There are other types of nuclear weapons as well. For example, a boosted fission weapon is a fission bomb that increases its explosive yield through a small number of fusion reactions, but it

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6324-537: The "implosion" method, is more sophisticated and more efficient (smaller, less massive, and requiring less of the expensive fissile fuel) than the former. A major challenge in all nuclear weapon designs is to ensure that a significant fraction of the fuel is consumed before the weapon destroys itself. The amount of energy released by fission bombs can range from the equivalent of just under a ton to upwards of 500,000 tons (500 kilotons ) of TNT (4.2 to 2.1 × 10  GJ). All fission reactions generate fission products ,

6426-586: The 1980s (though not deployed in Europe) for use as tactical payloads for US Army artillery shells (200 mm W79 and 155 mm W82 ) and short range missile forces. Soviet authorities announced similar intentions for neutron warhead deployment in Europe; indeed, they claimed to have originally invented the neutron bomb, but their deployment on USSR tactical nuclear forces is unverifiable. A type of nuclear explosive most suitable for use by ground special forces

6528-626: The Baruch Plan and the Soviet counter-proposal continued in the UNAEC until 1948, the Plan was not seriously advanced later than the end of 1947. Throughout the negotiations, the USSR was fast-tracking its own atomic bomb project , and the United States was continuing its own weapons development and production. With the failure of the Plan, both nations embarked on accelerated programs of weapons development, innovation, production, and testing as part of

6630-443: The Baruch Plan was a legitimate effort to achieve global cooperation on nuclear control. The Baruch Plan is often cited as a pivotal moment in history in works promoting internationalizing nuclear power or revisiting nuclear arms control. In philosopher Nick Bostrom 's 2014 work Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies , he cited the Baruch Plan as part of an argument that a future power possessing superintelligence that obtained

6732-593: The Baruch Proposal as "Congress insisted upon the insertion of clauses which it was known that the Russians would not accept." In his 1961 book Has Man a Future? , Russell described the Baruch plan as follows: The United States Government... did attempt... to give effect to some of the ideas which the atomic scientists had suggested. In 1946, it presented to the world what is now called "The Baruch Plan", which had very great merits and showed considerable generosity, when it

6834-425: The Cold War, policy and military theorists considered the sorts of policies that might prevent a nuclear attack, and they developed game theory models that could lead to stable deterrence conditions. Different forms of nuclear weapons delivery (see above) allow for different types of nuclear strategies. The goals of any strategy are generally to make it difficult for an enemy to launch a pre-emptive strike against

6936-494: The Joint Chiefs of Staffs website Publication, "Integration of nuclear weapons employment with conventional and special operations forces is essential to the success of any mission or operation." Because they are weapons of mass destruction, the proliferation and possible use of nuclear weapons are important issues in international relations and diplomacy. In most countries, the use of nuclear force can only be authorized by

7038-503: The Nuclear Age (1961) that mere possession of a nuclear arsenal was enough to ensure deterrence, and thus concluded that the spread of nuclear weapons could increase international stability . Some prominent neo-realist scholars, such as Kenneth Waltz and John Mearsheimer , have argued, along the lines of Gallois, that some forms of nuclear proliferation would decrease the likelihood of total war , especially in troubled regions of

7140-777: The USAF AIR-2 Genie , the AIM-26 Falcon and US Army Nike Hercules . Missile interceptors such as the Sprint and the Spartan also used small nuclear warheads (optimized to produce neutron or X-ray flux) but were for use against enemy strategic warheads. Other small, or tactical, nuclear weapons were deployed by naval forces for use primarily as antisubmarine weapons. These included nuclear depth bombs or nuclear armed torpedoes. Nuclear mines for use on land or at sea are also possibilities. The system used to deliver

7242-526: The United States. Small, two-man portable tactical weapons (somewhat misleadingly referred to as suitcase bombs ), such as the Special Atomic Demolition Munition , have been developed, although the difficulty of combining sufficient yield with portability limits their military utility. Nuclear warfare strategy is a set of policies that deal with preventing or fighting a nuclear war. The policy of trying to prevent an attack by

7344-795: The World Transhumanist Association (which has since changed its name to Humanity+ ). In 2004, he co-founded (with James Hughes ) the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies , although he is no longer involved with either of these organisations. In 2005, Bostrom published the short story " The Fable of the Dragon-Tyrant " in the Journal of Medical Ethics . A shorter version was published in 2012 in Philosophy Now . The fable personifies death as

7446-460: The anthropic shadow are likely to be underestimated unless statistical corrections are made. Bostrom's simulation argument posits that at least one of the following statements is very likely to be true: Bostrom is favorably disposed toward "human enhancement", or "self-improvement and human perfectibility through the ethical application of science", as well as a critic of bio-conservative views. In 1998, Bostrom co-founded (with David Pearce )

7548-694: The atmosphere (as Robert Oppenheimer had feared). Bostrom supports the substrate independence principle, the idea that consciousness can emerge on various types of physical substrates, not only in "carbon-based biological neural networks" like the human brain. He considers that " sentience is a matter of degree" and that digital minds can in theory be engineered to have a much higher rate and intensity of subjective experience than humans, using less resources. Such highly sentient machines, which he calls "super-beneficiaries", would be extremely efficient at achieving happiness. He recommends finding "paths that will enable digital minds and biological minds to coexist, in

7650-455: The atom, just as it does with fusion weapons. In fission weapons, a mass of fissile material ( enriched uranium or plutonium ) is forced into supercriticality —allowing an exponential growth of nuclear chain reactions —either by shooting one piece of sub-critical material into another (the "gun" method) or by compression of a sub-critical sphere or cylinder of fissile material using chemically fueled explosive lenses . The latter approach,

7752-485: The chance of a successful missile defense . Today, missiles are most common among systems designed for delivery of nuclear weapons. Making a warhead small enough to fit onto a missile, though, can be difficult. Tactical weapons have involved the most variety of delivery types, including not only gravity bombs and missiles but also artillery shells, land mines , and nuclear depth charges and torpedoes for anti-submarine warfare . An atomic mortar has been tested by

7854-435: The creation of nuclear fallout than fission reactions, but because all thermonuclear weapons contain at least one fission stage, and many high-yield thermonuclear devices have a final fission stage, thermonuclear weapons can generate at least as much nuclear fallout as fission-only weapons. Furthermore, high yield thermonuclear explosions (most dangerously ground bursts) have the force to lift radioactive debris upwards past

7956-571: The death of Stalin in 1953, the issue of the Soviet Union submitting to international inspection was always a thorny one, upon which many attempts at nuclear arms control stalled. Crucially, the Baruch Plan suggested that none of the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council would be able to veto a decision to punish culprits. Because of the difficulties in monitoring and policing, as well as Stalin's ambition to develop atomic weapons, although negotiations over

8058-591: The deaths of approximately 200,000 civilians and military personnel . The ethics of these bombings and their role in Japan's surrender are to this day, still subjects of debate . Since the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki , nuclear weapons have been detonated over 2,000 times for testing and demonstration. Only a few nations possess such weapons or are suspected of seeking them. The only countries known to have detonated nuclear weapons—and acknowledge possessing them—are (chronologically by date of first test)

8160-455: The decision process. The prospect of mutually assured destruction might not deter an enemy who expects to die in the confrontation. Further, if the initial act is from a stateless terrorist instead of a sovereign nation, there might not be a nation or specific target to retaliate against. It has been argued, especially after the September 11, 2001, attacks , that this complication calls for

8262-638: The development of beneficial technologies, particularly those that protect against the existential risks posed by nature or by other technologies. In 2011, Bostrom founded the Oxford Martin Program on the Impacts of Future Technology. Bostrom's theory of the unilateralist's curse has been cited as a reason for the scientific community to avoid controversial dangerous research such as reanimating pathogens. In 2014, Bostrom published Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies , which became

8364-469: The energy of a fission bomb to compress and heat fusion fuel. In the Teller-Ulam design , which accounts for all multi-megaton yield hydrogen bombs, this is accomplished by placing a fission bomb and fusion fuel ( tritium , deuterium , or lithium deuteride ) in proximity within a special, radiation-reflecting container. When the fission bomb is detonated, gamma rays and X-rays emitted first compress

8466-455: The fission bomb core. The external method of boosting enabled the USSR to field the first partially thermonuclear weapons, but it is now obsolete because it demands a spherical bomb geometry, which was adequate during the 1950s arms race when bomber aircraft were the only available delivery vehicles. The detonation of any nuclear weapon is accompanied by a blast of neutron radiation . Surrounding

8568-420: The fusion fuel, then heat it to thermonuclear temperatures. The ensuing fusion reaction creates enormous numbers of high-speed neutrons , which can then induce fission in materials not normally prone to it, such as depleted uranium . Each of these components is known as a "stage", with the fission bomb as the "primary" and the fusion capsule as the "secondary". In large, megaton-range hydrogen bombs, about half of

8670-535: The globe, would make all life on the planet extinct. In connection with the Strategic Defense Initiative , research into the nuclear pumped laser was conducted under the DOD program Project Excalibur but this did not result in a working weapon. The concept involves the tapping of the energy of an exploding nuclear bomb to power a single-shot laser that is directed at a distant target. During

8772-425: The issue moot". Bostrom has suggested that technology policy aimed at reducing existential risk should seek to influence the order in which various technological capabilities are attained, proposing the principle of differential technological development . This principle states that we ought to retard the development of dangerous technologies, particularly ones that raise the level of existential risk, and accelerate

8874-407: The midst of the Cold War. It highlighted the dangers posed by nuclear weapons and called for world leaders to seek peaceful resolutions to international conflict. The signatories included eleven pre-eminent intellectuals and scientists, including Albert Einstein , who signed it just days before his death on April 18, 1955. A few days after the release, philanthropist Cyrus S. Eaton offered to sponsor

8976-545: The military establishment have questioned the usefulness of such weapons in the current military climate. According to an advisory opinion issued by the International Court of Justice in 1996, the use of (or threat of use of) such weapons would generally be contrary to the rules of international law applicable in armed conflict, but the court did not reach an opinion as to whether or not the threat or use would be lawful in specific extreme circumstances such as if

9078-577: The mishandling of indexical information is a common flaw in many areas of inquiry (including cosmology, philosophy, evolution theory, game theory, and quantum physics). He argues that an anthropic theory is needed to deal with these. He introduces the Self-Sampling Assumption (SSA) and the Self-Indication Assumption (SIA), shows how they lead to different conclusions in a number of cases, and identifies how each

9180-408: The missiles before they land or implementing civil defense measures using early-warning systems to evacuate citizens to safe areas before an attack. Weapons designed to threaten large populations or to deter attacks are known as strategic weapons . Nuclear weapons for use on a battlefield in military situations are called tactical weapons . Critics of nuclear war strategy often suggest that

9282-605: The new atomic age lies a hope which, seized upon with faith, can work our salvation. If we fail, then we have damned every man to be the slave of fear. Let us not deceive ourselves; we must elect world peace or (elect) world destruction. The Soviets rejected the Baruch Plan and suggested a counter-proposal on the grounds that the United Nations was dominated by the United States and its allies in Western Europe, and could therefore not be trusted to exercise authority over atomic weaponry in an evenhanded manner. Nationalist China ,

9384-442: The overall nuclear arms race of the Cold War. Bertrand Russell urged control of nuclear weapons in the 1940s and early 1950s to avoid the likelihood of a general nuclear war , and initially felt hopeful when the Baruch Proposal was made. In late 1948 he suggested that "the remedy might be the threat of immediate war by the United States on Russia for the purpose of forcing nuclear disarmament on her." Later he thought less well of

9486-553: The plausible paths to a really great future". The book became a New York Times Best Seller and received positive feedback from personalities such as Stephen Hawking , Bill Gates , Elon Musk , Peter Singer and Derek Parfit . It was praised for offering clear and compelling arguments on a neglected yet important topic. It was sometimes criticized for spreading pessimism about the potential of AI, or for focusing on longterm and speculative risks. Some skeptics such as Daniel Dennett or Oren Etzioni contended that superintelligence

9588-532: The precise control of motivation, mood, well-being and personality. According to him, not only machines would be better than humans at working, but they would also undermine the purpose of many leisure activities, providing extreme welfare while challenging the quest for meaning. Bostrom was named in Foreign Policy ' s 2009 list of top global thinkers "for accepting no limits on human potential." Prospect Magazine listed Bostrom in their 2014 list of

9690-463: The relationship between language and reality by studying the analytic philosopher W. V. Quine . He also did some turns on London's stand-up comedy circuit. In 2000, he was awarded a PhD degree in philosophy from the London School of Economics . His thesis was titled Observational selection effects and probability . He held a teaching position at Yale University from 2000 to 2002, and was

9792-428: The remains of the split atomic nuclei. Many fission products are either highly radioactive (but short-lived) or moderately radioactive (but long-lived), and as such, they are a serious form of radioactive contamination . Fission products are the principal radioactive component of nuclear fallout . Another source of radioactivity is the burst of free neutrons produced by the weapon. When they collide with other nuclei in

9894-402: The surrounding material, the neutrons transmute those nuclei into other isotopes, altering their stability and making them radioactive. The most commonly used fissile materials for nuclear weapons applications have been uranium-235 and plutonium-239 . Less commonly used has been uranium-233 . Neptunium-237 and some isotopes of americium may be usable for nuclear explosives as well, but it

9996-498: The survival of the state were at stake. Another deterrence position is that nuclear proliferation can be desirable. In this case, it is argued that, unlike conventional weapons, nuclear weapons deter all-out war between states, and they succeeded in doing this during the Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union . In the late 1950s and early 1960s, Gen. Pierre Marie Gallois of France, an adviser to Charles de Gaulle , argued in books like The Balance of Terror: Strategy for

10098-446: The weapon system and difficult to defend against the delivery of the weapon during a potential conflict. This can mean keeping weapon locations hidden, such as deploying them on submarines or land mobile transporter erector launchers whose locations are difficult to track, or it can mean protecting weapons by burying them in hardened missile silo bunkers. Other components of nuclear strategies included using missile defenses to destroy

10200-631: The world where there exists a single nuclear-weapon state. Aside from the public opinion that opposes proliferation in any form, there are two schools of thought on the matter: those, like Mearsheimer, who favored selective proliferation, and Waltz, who was somewhat more non- interventionist . Interest in proliferation and the stability-instability paradox that it generates continues to this day, with ongoing debate about indigenous Japanese and South Korean nuclear deterrent against North Korea . The threat of potentially suicidal terrorists possessing nuclear weapons (a form of nuclear terrorism ) complicates

10302-624: The yield comes from the final fissioning of depleted uranium. Virtually all thermonuclear weapons deployed today use the "two-stage" design described to the right, but it is possible to add additional fusion stages—each stage igniting a larger amount of fusion fuel in the next stage. This technique can be used to construct thermonuclear weapons of arbitrarily large yield. This is in contrast to fission bombs, which are limited in their explosive power due to criticality danger (premature nuclear chain reaction caused by too-large amounts of pre-assembled fissile fuel). The largest nuclear weapon ever detonated,

10404-744: Was the Special Atomic Demolition Munition , or SADM, sometimes popularly known as a suitcase nuke . This is a nuclear bomb that is man-portable, or at least truck-portable, and though of a relatively small yield (one or two kilotons) is sufficient to destroy important tactical targets such as bridges, dams, tunnels, important military or commercial installations, etc. either behind enemy lines or pre-emptively on friendly territory soon to be overtaken by invading enemy forces. These weapons require plutonium fuel and are particularly "dirty". They also demand especially stringent security precautions in their storage and deployment. Small "tactical" nuclear weapons were deployed for use as antiaircraft weapons. Examples include

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