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66-693: Originally an independent firm, GBN became part of the Monitor Group in 2000, which was in turn acquired by Deloitte. GBN was headquartered in Emeryville, California , and had offices in New York City , London , and Cambridge, Massachusetts . GBN was founded in Berkeley, California , in 1987 by a group of entrepreneurs including Peter Schwartz , Jay Ogilvy, Stewart Brand , Napier Collyns, and Lawrence Wilkinson. The company grew to include

132-492: A 2016 interview, after being made the subject of a fake news website during the 2016 U.S. election cycle which falsely claimed that he supported Donald Trump . He said the worst thing the news media could do was spread disinformation. He said the act was a sin , comparing those who spread disinformation to individuals who engage in coprophilia . In a contribution to the 2014 book Military Ethics and Emerging Technologies , writers David Danks and Joseph H. Danks discuss

198-580: A 2023 research article published in New Media & Society , disinformation circulates on social media through deception campaigns implemented in multiple ways including: astroturfing , conspiracy theories , clickbait , culture wars , echo chambers , hoaxes, fake news , propaganda , pseudoscience , and rumors . Label: The instrumentalization of the term to delegitimize news media In order to distinguish between similar terms, including misinformation and malinformation, scholars collectively agree on

264-538: A core group of "practice members", and over a hundred individual network members (or "RPs") from a range of different fields, such as Wired editor Kevin Kelly , social media expert Clay Shirky , anthropologist Mary Catherine Bateson , economist Aidan Eyakuze, musician Brian Eno , biotechnologist Rob Carlson, and China scholar Orville Schell . As of 1998, The Economist reported that GBN had nearly 100 clients, "ranging from blue-chip firms such as IBM and AT&T to

330-609: A form of disinformation, as they mislead the public about their true objectives and who their controllers are. Most recently, disinformation has been deliberately spread through social media in the form of " fake news ", disinformation masked as legitimate news articles and meant to mislead readers or viewers. Disinformation may include distribution of forged documents , manuscripts, and photographs, or spreading dangerous rumours and fabricated intelligence . Use of these tactics can lead to blowback , however, causing such unintended consequences such as defamation lawsuits or damage to

396-511: A higher frequency of cross-spectrum discussion. Other evidence has found that disinformation campaigns rarely succeed in altering the foreign policies of the targeted states. Research is also challenging because disinformation is meant to be difficult to detect and some social media companies have discouraged outside research efforts. For example, researchers found disinformation made "existing detection algorithms from traditional news media ineffective or not applicable...[because disinformation]

462-689: A mark of Monitor's hyper-confidentiality. Some engagements that have appeared in the press due to their public nature include a major initiative with the Libyan government and an organizational effort with the University of California . Monitor Group recruited both at MBA and undergraduate levels, including online recruiting, for the "consultant" position, the title given to all of Monitor's professional staff. Monitor's candidates typically come from top Ivy League schools and their international equivalents, liberal arts colleges and business schools across

528-459: A munitions plant as a healthcare facility in order to avoid attack would be outside the bounds of acceptable use of disinformation during war. Research related to disinformation studies is increasing as an applied area of inquiry. The call to formally classify disinformation as a cybersecurity threat is made by advocates due to its increase in social networking sites. Despite the proliferation of social media websites, Facebook and Twitter showed

594-454: A position as head of scenario planning at Royal Dutch/Shell , from 1982 to 1986, where he continued the pioneering work of Pierre Wack in the field of scenario planning. GBN ceased to be an active entity following the acquisition of the Monitor Group by Deloitte in January 2013. Unlike forecasting which extrapolates past and present trends to predict the future, scenario planning

660-552: A private website, and the GBN Book Club, offering a selection of literature about future issues each month. GBN was acquired by Monitor in 2000, and soon stopped offering this membership service, concentrating instead on scenario-based consulting and training. Before GBN, Peter Schwartz had been employed at SRI International as director of the Strategic Environment Center; following that, he took

726-511: A result, research shows that disinformation can be conceptualized as a program that encourages engagement in oppositional fantasies (i.e., culture wars ), through which disinformation circulates as rhetorical ammunition for never-ending arguments. As disinformation entangles with culture wars , identity-driven controversies constitute a vehicle through which disinformation disseminates on social media . This means that disinformation thrives, not despite raucous grudges but because of them. The reason

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792-516: A social media ecosystem, and "echoing" is when the audience disseminates disinformation argumentatively as their own opinions often by incorporating disinformation into a confrontational fantasy. Studies show four main methods of seeding disinformation online: Disinformation is amplified online due to malpractice concerning online advertising , especially the machine-to-machine interactions of real-time bidding systems. Online advertising technologies have been used to amplify disinformation due to

858-492: A thin understanding of journalistic processes; and, has progressed more through the exigencies of grant funding than the development of theory and empirical findings." Alternative perspectives have been proposed: The research literature on how disinformation spreads is growing. Studies show that disinformation spread in social media can be classified into two broad stages: seeding and echoing. "Seeding," when malicious actors strategically insert deceptions, like fake news, into

924-517: Is a broad consensus amongst scholars that there is a high degree of disinformation, misinformation, and propaganda online; however, it is unclear to what extent such disinformation has on political attitudes in the public and, therefore, political outcomes. This conventional wisdom has come mostly from investigative journalists, with a particular rise during the 2016 U.S. election: some of the earliest work came from Craig Silverman at Buzzfeed News. Cass Sunstein supported this in #Republic, arguing that

990-438: Is a market-facing Strategy and Business Design consulting practice. At the time of merger with Deloitte, it was led by Bansi Nagji. Prior to the merger with Deloitte, Bansi Nagji was President of Monitor Group and led the firm’s global innovation practice. Monitor Group was founded in 1983, by six entrepreneurs with ties to Harvard Business School , including Michael Porter , Mark B. Fuller , and Joseph B. Fuller . In 2008,

1056-555: Is a member company of the Ayala Corporation . On November 7, 2012, Monitor's US subsidiary filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, and it was announced that Deloitte had agreed to acquire Monitor Group. The company was officially bought out by Deloitte on January 11, 2013. "The new combined practices will operate under the Monitor Deloitte brand, resulting in a new global presence in strategy consulting", according to

1122-586: Is a process for exploring alternative, plausible, possible futures and what those might mean for strategies, policies, and decisions. Scenario planning was first used by the military in World War II and then by Herman Kahn at RAND (“Thinking the Unthinkable”) during the Cold War , before being adapted to inform corporate strategy by Pierre Wack and other business strategists at Royal Dutch/Shell in

1188-630: Is an orchestrated adversarial activity in which actors employ strategic deceptions and media manipulation tactics to advance political, military, or commercial goals. Disinformation is implemented through attacks that "weaponize multiple rhetorical strategies and forms of knowing—including not only falsehoods but also truths , half-truths , and value judgements —to exploit and amplify culture wars and other identity-driven controversies." In contrast, misinformation refers to inaccuracies that stem from inadvertent error. Misinformation can be used to create disinformation when known misinformation

1254-492: Is intentionally written to mislead readers...[and] users' social engagements with fake news produce data that is big, incomplete, unstructured, and noisy." Facebook, the largest social media company, has been criticized by analytical journalists and scholars for preventing outside research of disinformation. Researchers have criticized the framing of disinformation as being limited to technology platforms, removed from its wider political context and inaccurately implying that

1320-406: Is purposefully and intentionally disseminated. " Fake news " has sometimes been categorized as a type of disinformation, but scholars have advised not using these two terms interchangeably or using "fake news" altogether in academic writing since politicians have weaponized it to describe any unfavorable news coverage or information. The English word disinformation comes from the application of

1386-429: Is that controversies provide fertile ground for never-ending debates that solidify points of view. Scholars have pointed out that disinformation is not only a foreign threat as domestic purveyors of disinformation are also leveraging traditional media outlets such as newspapers, radio stations, and television news media to disseminate false information. Current research suggests right-wing online political activists in

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1452-531: Is the label often given to foreign information manipulation and interference (FIMI). Studies on disinformation are often concerned with the content of activity whereas the broader concept of FIMI is more concerned with the "behaviour of an actor" that is described through the military doctrine concept of tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs). Disinformation is primarily carried out by government intelligence agencies , but has also been used by non-governmental organizations and businesses. Front groups are

1518-506: Is the multinational strategy consulting practice of Deloitte Consulting . Monitor Deloitte specializes in providing strategy consultation services to the senior management of major organizations and governments. It helps its clients address a variety of management areas, including: Organic Growth, Strategic Transformation, Innovation and Ventures, Business Design and Configuration, Strategic Sensing, and Insight Services. Prior to its acquisition by Deloitte in January 2013, Monitor Deloitte

1584-659: The London School of Economics (LSE), Joseph Nye of Harvard’s Kennedy School , Benjamin Barber of Rutgers University and Michael Porter . Monitor also provided research support for a doctoral thesis which Gaddafi's son, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi , submitted to the LSE. During this period Monitor also proposed a separate project to write a book for a fee of $ 2.45 million, to be published in Gaddafi's name and which would "allow

1650-552: The "ABC" framework of understanding different modalities of online disinformation: In 2020, the Brookings Institution proposed amending this framework to include Distribution , defined by the "technical protocols that enable, constrain, and shape user behavior in a virtual space". Similarly, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace proposed adding Degree ("distribution of the content ... and

1716-563: The 1950s defined disinformation as "dissemination (in the press, on the radio, etc.) of false reports intended to mislead public opinion." Disinformation first made an appearance in dictionaries in 1985, specifically, Webster's New College Dictionary and the American Heritage Dictionary . In 1986, the term disinformation was not defined in Webster's New World Thesaurus or New Encyclopædia Britannica . After

1782-562: The 1950s from the Russian dezinformatsiya , and began to use similar strategies during the Cold War and in conflict with other nations. The New York Times reported in 2000 that during the CIA's effort to substitute Mohammed Reza Pahlavi for then- Prime Minister of Iran Mohammad Mossadegh , the CIA placed fictitious stories in the local newspaper. Reuters documented how, subsequent to

1848-500: The 1970s. Scenario planning is thus often called the "Shell method". The key principles of scenario planning include thinking from the outside in about the forces in the contextual environment that are driving change, engaging multiple perspectives to identify and interpret those forces, and adopting a long view. In 2004, there was widespread media attention about a report that the Global Business Network prepared for

1914-506: The 1979 Soviet Union invasion of Afghanistan during the Soviet–Afghan War , the CIA put false articles in newspapers of Islamic-majority countries, inaccurately stating that Soviet embassies had "invasion day celebrations". Reuters noted a former U.S. intelligence officer said they would attempt to gain the confidence of reporters and use them as secret agents , to affect a nation's politics by way of their local media. In October 1986,

1980-468: The 2016 Presidential Elections, online fake news or disinformation probably did not cost Hillary Clinton the votes needed to secure the presidency. Research on this topic remains inconclusive, for example, misinformation appears not to significantly change political knowledge of those exposed to it. There seems to be a higher level of diversity of news sources that users are exposed to on Facebook and Twitter than conventional wisdom would dictate, as well as

2046-485: The Corporation for National and Community Service honored Monitor for outstanding pro bono service for its 10-year partnership with and providing consulting resources for New Profit Inc., a national venture philanthropy fund, as well as its consulting work through Monitor Institute. More than 250 Monitor Group consultants have participated in projects supporting New Profit and its portfolio organizations. Monitor

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2112-822: The English language within the lexicon of politics. By 2001, the term disinformation had come to be known as simply a more civil phrase for saying someone was lying . Stanley B. Cunningham wrote in his 2002 book The Idea of Propaganda that disinformation had become pervasively used as a synonym for propaganda . The Shorenstein Center at Harvard University defines disinformation research as an academic field that studies “the spread and impacts of misinformation, disinformation, and media manipulation,” including “how it spreads through online and offline channels, and why people are susceptible to believing bad information, and successful strategies for mitigating its impact” According to

2178-616: The Firm: Governance, Residual Claims and Organizational Forms , by Michael C. Jensen ; The Strategy and Tactics of Pricing: A Guide to Growing More Profitably , by Thomas T. Nagle, John E. Hogan and Joseph Zale; and The Art of the Long View: Paths to Strategic Insight for Yourself and Your Company by Peter Schwartz . Monitor was first hired by the Muammar Gaddafi -led Libyan government in 2005 to assess

2244-482: The LSE. This, combined with public exposure of wider connections between the LSE and Libya , resulted in the resignation of its director, Howard Davies . In March 2011, Monitor announced that it had launched an internal investigation into its work for the Libyan government. In May 2011, Monitor announced it would register some of its past work in Libya with the U.S. Department of Justice in accordance with FARA. Around

2310-463: The Latin prefix dis- to information making the meaning "reversal or removal of information". The rarely used word had appeared with this usage in print at least as far back as 1887. Some consider it a loan translation of the Russian дезинформация , transliterated as dezinformatsiya , apparently derived from the title of a KGB black propaganda department. Soviet planners in

2376-582: The Monitor website in February 2013. Monitor was based in Cambridge , Massachusetts , and has 27 offices in 17 countries. Monitor's consulting areas included: Strategy and Uncertainty, Leadership and Organization, Innovation, Economic Development, Marketing Pricing and Sales, and Social Action. Monitor had a number of business units that specialize in these areas and work together on client projects and

2442-464: The Soviet term became widely known in the 1980s, native speakers of English broadened the term as "any government communication (either overt or covert) containing intentionally false and misleading material, often combined selectively with true information, which seeks to mislead and manipulate either elites or a mass audience." By 1990, use of the term disinformation had fully established itself in

2508-618: The Substance and Process of Anti-U.S. Disinformation and Propaganda Campaigns (1986); Report on Active Measures and Propaganda, 1986–87 (1987); and Report on Active Measures and Propaganda, 1987–88 (1989). According to a report by Reuters , the United States ran a propaganda campaign to spread disinformation about the Sinovac Chinese COVID-19 vaccine, including using fake social media accounts to spread

2574-1067: The United States Defense Department which predicted "killer droughts through much of Europe, nuclear war between Pakistan and India over drinking water supplies, conflict between China and the US over Saudi oil, and an inland sea in California's Central Valley." In May 2010, GBN and the Rockefeller Foundation co-published a report titled "Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development". The report explored four hypothetical scenarios, titled Lock Step , Clever Together , Hack Attack and Smart Scramble , focused on solutions to issues of global pandemics , climate change , terrorism , food insecurity , cyberattacks , disinformation , and associated crises. Monitor Group Monitor Deloitte

2640-461: The United States may be more likely to use disinformation as a strategy and tactic. Governments have responded with a wide range of policies to address concerns about the potential threats that disinformation poses to democracy, however, there is little agreement in elite policy discourse or academic literature as to what it means for disinformation to threaten democracy, and how different policies might help to counter its negative implications. There

2706-762: The audiences it reaches") and Effect ("how much of a threat a given case poses"). Whether and to what degree disinformation and propaganda overlap is subject to debate. Some (like U.S. Department of State ) define propaganda as the use of non-rational arguments to either advance or undermine a political ideal, and use disinformation as an alternative name for undermining propaganda. While others consider them to be separate concepts altogether. One popular distinction holds that disinformation also describes politically motivated messaging designed explicitly to engender public cynicism, uncertainty, apathy, distrust, and paranoia, all of which disincentivize citizen engagement and mobilization for social or political change. Disinformation

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2772-409: The average American adult saw fake news stories, "with just over half of those who recalled seeing them believing them"; and 4) people are more likely to "believe stories that favor their preferred candidate, especially if they have ideologically segregated social media networks." Correspondingly, whilst there is wide agreement that the digital spread and uptake of disinformation during the 2016 election

2838-402: The definitions for each term as follows: (1) disinformation is the strategic dissemination of false information with the intention to cause public harm; (2) misinformation represents the unintentional spread of false information; and (3) malinformation is factual information disseminated with the intention to cause harm, these terms are abbreviated 'DMMI'. In 2019, Camille François devised

2904-410: The development of intellectual property , including its own white papers and research reports. They included: Global Business Network (GBN), experts in scenario planning and experiential learning; Doblin specializes in innovation and design thinking ; Monitor Regional Competitiveness supported economic development and regional competitiveness initiatives; Monitor Institute consulted on strategy for

2970-399: The dis-informer's reputation. Russian disinformation campaigns have occurred in many countries. For example, disinformation campaigns led by Yevgeny Prigozhin have been reported in several African countries. Russia , however, denies that it uses disinformation to influence public opinion. The United States Intelligence Community appropriated use of the term disinformation in

3036-643: The disinformation that the Sinovac vaccine contained pork-derived ingredients and was therefore haram under Islamic law . Reuters said the ChinaAngVirus disinformation campaign was designed to "counter what it perceived as China’s growing influence in the Philippines" and was prompted by the "[fear] that China’s COVID diplomacy and propaganda could draw other Southeast Asian countries, such as Cambodia and Malaysia, closer to Beijing". The campaign

3102-465: The disinformation was performed out of a motivation of good faith and acceptable according to the rules of war . By this test, the tactic during World War II of putting fake inflatable tanks in visible locations on the Pacific Islands in order to falsely present the impression that there were larger military forces present would be considered as ethically permissible. Conversely, disguising

3168-406: The ethical implications in using disinformation as a tactic during information warfare . They note there has been a significant degree of philosophical debate over the issue as related to the ethics of war and use of the technique. The writers describe a position whereby the use of disinformation is occasionally allowed, but not in all situations. Typically the ethical test to consider is whether

3234-591: The government of Singapore and the National Education Association". At the time, they paid annual subscriptions of $ 35,000 each to become members of the GBN community; for an additional sum, they received custom scenario planning. As part of the GBN community, they received exposure to the network of experts, were invited to workshops and interactive meetings to explore emerging trends and alternative futures, while gaining access to training seminars,

3300-522: The influence of Russian disinformation on Twitter during the 2016 US presidential campaign found that exposure to disinformation was (1) concentrated among a tiny group of users, (2) primarily among Republicans, and (3) eclipsed by exposure to legitimate political news media and politicians. Finally, they find "no evidence of a meaningful relationship between exposure to the Russian foreign influence campaign and changes in attitudes, polarization, or voting behavior." As such, despite its mass dissemination during

3366-524: The internet in 2009, Monitor entered into further contracts with the Libyan regime in 2006 which were worth at least $ 3m (£1.8m) per year plus expenses. According to the memo these contracts were for a campaign to "enhance international understanding and appreciation of Libya... emphasize the emergence of the new Libya... [and] introduce Muammar Gaddafi as a thinker and intellectual." In connection with these contracts Monitor engaged and flew to Libya several leading Western academics, including Anthony Giddens of

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3432-452: The internet would become rife with echo chambers and informational cascades of misinformation leading to a highly polarized and ill-informed society. Research after the 2016 election found: (1) for 14 percent of Americans social media was their "most important" source of election news; 2) known false news stories "favoring Trump were shared a total of 30 million times on Facebook, while those favoring Clinton were shared 8 million times"; 3)

3498-448: The media landscape was otherwise well-functioning. "The field possesses a simplistic understanding of the effects of media technologies; overemphasizes platforms and underemphasizes politics; focuses too much on the United States and Anglocentric analysis; has a shallow understanding of political culture and culture in general; lacks analysis of race, class, gender, and sexuality as well as status, inequality, social structure, and power; has

3564-469: The most activity in terms of active disinformation campaigns. Techniques reported on included the use of bots to amplify hate speech, the illegal harvesting of data, and paid trolls to harass and threaten journalists. Whereas disinformation research focuses primarily on how actors orchestrate deceptions on social media, primarily via fake news , new research investigates how people take what started as deceptions and circulate them as their personal views. As

3630-485: The philanthropy and non-profit sectors; Monitor 360 works on strategy for government and non-governmental agencies; and Monitor Talent, a network of authors, experts, and academics who shared ideas about the future of business, science and society. According to Monitor Group, about 85 percent of its revenues came from repeat clients. Monitor Group did not disclose its list of clients. Even when discussing clients in-house, Monitor used acronyms to protect client's identities,

3696-452: The reader to hear Gaddafi elaborate, in his own words and in conversation with renowned international experts, his core ideas on individual freedom, direct democracy vs. representative democracy, [and] the role of state and religion". The book was never completed and Monitor later stated that the project had been a "serious mistake on our part". Monitor's work for the Libyan government, and its hiring of academics in connection with it, became

3762-443: The same time, Mark Fuller, Monitor Group's founder, chairman, and CEO, announced his resignation, which, according to Monitor executives, had been planned for several months. The company said it would also register for work with Jordan . Disinformation Disinformation is misleading content deliberately spread to deceive people, or to secure economic or political gain and which may cause public harm. Disinformation

3828-612: The state of Libya’s economy, develop plans for economic modernization and reform of the banking system, and train leaders from different sectors of society. The work did not involve any wider political reforms in the North African nation. According to a 2007 memo from Monitor to Libya's intelligence chief which was subsequently obtained by the National Conference for the Libyan Opposition and posted on

3894-534: The subject of increasing scrutiny and controversy after Gaddafi’s forces attacked anti-government protesters in February 2011. Questions arose about whether Monitor should have registered as a foreign lobbyist under the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) in connection with its work in Libya. During this time, details also came to public notice of the role which Monitor had played in the writing of Saif Gaddafi's thesis submitted to

3960-551: The term gained increased currency in the U.S. when it was revealed that two months previously, the Reagan Administration had engaged in a disinformation campaign against then-leader of Libya , Muammar Gaddafi . White House representative Larry Speakes said reports of a planned attack on Libya as first broken by The Wall Street Journal on August 25, 1986, were "authoritative", and other newspapers including The Washington Post then wrote articles saying this

4026-410: The world. Only around 2% of the undergraduate applicant pool received offers. Several authors affiliated with the firm have written business consulting books related to Monitor's work, including Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors , by Michael Porter; Knowledge for Action: A Guide to Overcoming Barriers to Organizational Change , by Chris Argyris ; A Theory of

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4092-555: Was also described as "payback for Beijing's efforts to blame Washington for the pandemic". The campaign primarily targeted people in the Philippines and used a social media hashtag for "China is the virus" in Tagalog . The campaign ran from 2020 to mid-2021. The primary contractor for the U.S. military on the project was General Dynamics IT , which received $ 493 million for its role. Pope Francis condemned disinformation in

4158-670: Was an American strategy consulting practice known as Monitor Group , which filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2012. It was founded in 1983, by Michael Porter and five other entrepreneurs with ties to the Harvard Business School . The advisory services now offered by Monitor Deloitte are in line with Monitor Group's legacy expertise, but expanded to a broader set of implementation and capabilities design, focused on greater resilience to economic uncertainty. From 2005 to 2011, Monitor controversially provided services to Muammar Gaddafi's regime in Libya. Today, Monitor Deloitte

4224-513: Was factual. U.S. State Department representative Bernard Kalb resigned from his position in protest over the disinformation campaign, and said: "Faith in the word of America is the pulse beat of our democracy." The executive branch of the Reagan administration kept watch on disinformation campaigns through three yearly publications by the Department of State: Active Measures: A Report on

4290-407: Was hit by the 2008 economic crisis. The company laid off nearly 20% of its workforce and closed several small offices. According to co-founder Joe Fuller, 2008 revenue was up on the previous year, but he stated that Monitor continued to anticipate "a demanding and tough market in the short term". Monitor also operated a research captive called Grail Research which was sold to Integreon in 2010, which

4356-488: Was massive and very likely facilitated by foreign agents, there is an ongoing debate on whether all this had any actual effect on the election. For example, a double blind randomized-control experiment by researchers from the London School of Economics (LSE), found that exposure to online fake news about either Trump or Clinton had no significant effect on intentions to vote for those candidates. Researchers who examined

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