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117-414: Doomsday devices and the nuclear holocaust they bring about have been present in literature and art especially in the 20th century, when advances in science and technology made world destruction (or at least the eradication of all human life) a credible scenario. Many classics in the genre of science fiction take up the theme in this respect. The term "doomsday machine" itself is attested from 1960, but

234-514: A 1979 report for the U.S. Senate, the Office of Technology Assessment estimated casualties under different scenarios. For a full-scale countervalue / counterforce nuclear exchange between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, they predicted U.S. deaths from 35 to 77 percent (70 million to 160 million dead at the time), and Soviet deaths from 20 to 40 percent of the population. Although this report

351-505: A Foresight Competency Model in 2017, and it is now possible to study it academically, for example at the FU Berlin in their master's course. To encourage inclusive and cross-disciplinary discussions about futures studies, UNESCO declared December 2 as World Futures Day. Futurology is an interdisciplinary field that aggregates and analyzes trends, with both lay and professional methods, to compose possible futures. It includes analyzing

468-557: A bona fide trend. Trends can also gain confirmation by the existence of other trends perceived as springing from the same branch. Some commentators claim that when 15% to 25% of a given population integrates an innovation, project, belief or action into their daily life then a trend becomes mainstream. Gartner created their Hype cycle to illustrate the phases a technology moves through as it grows from research and development to mainstream adoption. The unrealistic expectations and subsequent disillusionment that virtual reality experienced in

585-488: A computer, and Skynet 's nigh-destruction of the human race in The Terminator (1984). Nuclear holocaust A nuclear holocaust , also known as a nuclear apocalypse , nuclear annihilation , nuclear armageddon , or atomic holocaust , is a theoretical scenario where the mass detonation of nuclear weapons causes widespread destruction and radioactive fallout. Such a scenario envisages large parts of

702-474: A consequence from a smaller-scale nuclear war between India and Pakistan. In the event of a nuclear war between Russia and the United States, 99% of the people in the United States, Russia, Europe, and China would die. An electromagnetic pulse (EMP) is a burst of electromagnetic radiation. Nuclear explosions create a pulse of electromagnetic radiation called a nuclear EMP or NEMP. Such EMP interference

819-479: A debate as to whether this discipline was an art or science, and it was sometimes described as pseudoscience ; Nevertheless, the study of the future as an academic discipline gradually gained ground, and parallel to this development, corporations and governments began employing people trained in this field. This resulted in, for example, the Association of Professional Futurists being formed in 2002, developing

936-434: A deliberate doomsday device could be constructed by surrounding powerful hydrogen bombs with a massive amount of cobalt. Cobalt has a half-life of five years, and its global fallout might, some physicists have posited, be able to clear out all human life via lethal radiation intensity. The main motivation for building a cobalt bomb in this scenario is its reduced expense compared with the arsenals possessed by superpowers; such

1053-433: A doomsday device does not need to be launched before detonation and thus does not require expensive missile delivery systems, and the hydrogen bombs do not need to be miniaturized for delivery via missile. The system for triggering it might have to be completely automated, in order for the deterrent to be effective. A modern twist might be to also lace the bombs with aerosols designed to exacerbate nuclear winter. A major caveat

1170-549: A forerunner of social and technological forecasting. A series of techno-optimistic newspaper articles and books were published between 1890 and 1914 in the US and Europe. After World War I the Italian Futurism movement led by Filippo Tommaso Marinetti glorified modernity . Soviet futurists, such as Vladimir Mayakovsky , David Burliuk , and Vasily Kamensky struggled against official communist cultural policy throughout

1287-455: A full-scale nuclear war would result, through the nuclear winter effect, in the extinction of the human species , though not all analysts agree on the assumptions put into these nuclear winter models. Futures studies Futures studies , futures research , futurism research, futurism, or futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social/technological advancement, and other environmental trends; often for

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1404-496: A massive thermonuclear device surrounded by hundreds of tons of cobalt which, when detonated, would create massive amounts of Cobalt-60 , rendering most of the Earth too radioactive to support life. RAND strategist Herman Kahn postulated that Soviet or US nuclear decision makers might choose to build a doomsday machine that would consist of a computer linked to a stockpile of hydrogen bombs, programmed to detonate them all and bathe

1521-593: A master's degree program in 1975 at the University of Houston–Clear Lake . In 1976, the M.A. Program in Public Policy in Alternative Futures at the University of Hawaii at Manoa was established. Alvin & Heidi Toffler 's bestseller Future Shock in 1970 generated mainstream attention for futures studies on the post-industrial economy . It popularized the metaphor of waves to describe

1638-402: A near-global ozone hole , triggering human health problems and impacting agriculture for at least a decade. This effect on the ozone would result from heat absorption by soot in the upper stratosphere, which would modify wind currents and draw in ozone-destroying nitrogen oxides. These high temperatures and nitrogen oxides would reduce ozone to the same dangerous levels that are experienced below

1755-611: A new science of probability . This term has fallen from favor in recent decades because modern practitioners stress the importance of alternative, plausible, preferable and plural futures, rather than one monolithic future, and the limitations of prediction and probability, versus the creation of possible and preferable futures. Three factors usually distinguish futures studies from the research conducted by other disciplines (although all of these disciplines overlap, to differing degrees). First, futures studies often examines trends to compose possible, probable, and preferable futures along with

1872-530: A plausible theory of knowledge and instead turned to pluralism . At the 1967 First international Future Research Conference" in Oslo research on urban sprawl , hunger , and education was presented. In 1968 Olaf Helmer of the RAND Corporation conceded "One begins to realize that there is a wealth of possible futures and that these possibilities can be shaped in different ways". Future studies worked on

1989-605: A process together with familiarity with the fundamental attributes of most commonly used methods. Futurology is sometimes described by scientists as a pseudoscience , as it often deals with speculative scenarios and long-term predictions that can be difficult to test using traditional scientific methods. Futurists use a diverse range of forecasting and foresight methods including: Futurists use scenarios—alternative possible futures—as an important tool. To some extent, people can determine what they consider probable or desirable using qualitative and quantitative methods. By looking at

2106-434: A profound basis. A fad operates in the short term, shows the vagaries of fashion, affects particular societal groups, and spreads quickly but superficially. Futurists have a decidedly mixed reputation and a patchy track record at successful prediction. Many 1950s futurists predicted commonplace space tourism by 2000, but ignored the possibilities of ubiquitous, cheap computers. On the other hand, many forecasts have portrayed

2223-637: A range of possibilities can enhance the recognition of opportunities and threats. Every successful and unsuccessful business engages in futuring to some degree—for example in research and development, innovation and market research, anticipating competitor behavior and so on. Role-playing is another way that possible futures can be collectively explored, as in the research larp Civilisation's Waiting Room . In futures research "weak signals" may be understood as advanced, noisy and socially situated indicators of change in trends and systems that constitute raw informational material for enabling anticipatory action. There

2340-431: A rule, futures studies is generally concerned with changes of transformative impact, rather than those of an incremental or narrow scope. The futures field also excludes those who make future predictions through professed supernatural means. To complete a futures study, a domain is selected for examination. The domain is the main idea of the project, or what the outcome of the project seeks to determine. Domains can have

2457-467: A societal collapse following nuclear war that can make humanity much more vulnerable to other existential threats. A related area of inquiry is: if a future nuclear arms race someday leads to larger stockpiles or more dangerous nuclear weapons than existed at the height of the Cold War, at what point could war with such weapons result in human extinction? Physicist Leo Szilard warned in the 1950s that

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2574-487: A strategic or exploratory focus and must narrow down the scope of the research. It examines what will, and more importantly, will not be discussed in the research. Futures practitioners study trends focusing on STEEP (Social, Technological, Economic, Environments and Political) baselines. Baseline exploration examine current STEEP environments to determine normal trends, called baselines. Next, practitioners use scenarios to explore different futures outcomes. Scenarios examine how

2691-540: A third of the world's population, would be at risk of starvation in the event of a regional nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan, or by the use of even a small proportion of nuclear arms held by America and Russia. Several independent studies show corroborated conclusions that agricultural outputs would be significantly reduced for years by climatic changes driven by nuclear wars. Reduction of food supply would be further exacerbated by rising food prices , affecting hundreds of millions of vulnerable people, especially in

2808-484: A trend and was about to be a topic of mainstream awareness. "Wild cards" refer to low-probability and high-impact events "that happen quickly" and "have huge sweeping consequences", and materialize too quickly for social systems to effectively respond. Elina Hiltunen notes that wild cards are not new, though they have become more prevalent. One reason for this may be the increasingly fast pace of change. Oliver Markley proposed four types of wild cards: He posits that it

2925-479: A variety of possibilities one comes closer to shaping the future, rather than predicting it. Shaping alternative futures starts by establishing a number of scenarios. Setting up scenarios takes place as a process with many stages, and can take place in an evidence-based manner. Scenarios can also study unlikely and improbable developments that would otherwise be ignored. However, for credibility, they should not be entirely utopian or dystopian. One of those stages involves

3042-450: Is a highly dangerous kind of radioactive contamination . The main radiation hazard from fallout is due to short-lived radionuclides external to the body. While most of the particles carried by nuclear fallout decay rapidly, some radioactive particles will have half-lives of seconds to a few months. Some radioactive isotopes, like strontium-90 and caesium-137 , are very long-lived and will create radioactive hot spots for up to 5 years after

3159-616: Is already Here . Fred L. Polak published Images of the Future in 1961, it has become a classic text on imagining alternative futures. In the 1960s, human-centered methods of future studies were developed in Europe by Bertrand de Jouvenel and Johan Galtung . The positivist idea of a single future was challenged by scientists such as Thomas Kuhn , Karl Popper , and Jürgen Habermas . Future studies established itself as an academic field when social scientists began to question positivism as

3276-575: Is extinguished. However, the premise that all of humanity would die following a nuclear war and only the "cockroaches would survive" is critically dealt with in the 1988 book Would the Insects Inherit the Earth and Other Subjects of Concern to Those Who Worry About Nuclear War , by nuclear weapons expert Philip J. Dolan . Based upon studies on the effects of the massive hydrogen bombs at the Bikini Atoll and Eniwetok Atoll , Dolan refutes

3393-455: Is important to track the emergence of "Type II Wild Cards" that have a high probability of occurring, but low credibility that it will happen. This focus is especially important to note because it is often difficult to persuade people to accept something they do not believe is happening, until they see the wild card. An example is climate change. This hypothesis has gone from Type I (high impact and high credibility, but low probability where science

3510-466: Is known to be generally disruptive or damaging to electronic equipment. By disabling electronics and their functioning, an EMP would disable hospitals, water treatment facilities, food storage facilities, and all electronic forms of communication, and thereby threaten key aspects of the modern human condition. Certain EMP attacks could lead to a large loss of power for months or years. Currently, failures of

3627-430: Is some confusion about the definition of weak signal by various researchers and consultants. Sometimes it is referred as future oriented information, sometimes more like emerging issues. The confusion has been partly clarified with the concept 'the future sign', by separating signal, issue and interpretation of the future sign. A weak signal can be an early indicator of coming change, and an example might also help clarify

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3744-605: Is that nuclear fallout transfer between the northern and southern hemispheres is expected to be small; unless a bomb detonates in each hemisphere, the effect of a bomb detonated in one hemisphere on the other is diminished. Historically, it has been difficult to estimate the total number of deaths resulting from a global nuclear exchange because scientists are continually discovering new effects of nuclear weapons, and also revising existing models. Early reports considered direct effects from nuclear blast and radiation and indirect effects from economic, social, and political disruption. In

3861-650: Is triggered by an incompletely aborted American attack and all life on Earth is extinguished. Another is in the Star Trek episode The Doomsday Machine (1967), where the crew of the Enterprise fights a powerful planet-killing alien machine. However, doomsday devices also expanded to encompass many other types of fictional technology, one of the most famous of which is the Death Star , a planet-destroying, moon-sized space station . Some works have also considered

3978-546: Is worldwide fallout, such global fallout has happened as a result of past nuclear weapons testing , numbering in the thousands, with many being atmospheric. A fast increase of global background radiation , peaking in 1963 (the Bomb pulse ) urged, among other things states to sign bans on nuclear weapons testing . The global fallout has caused deaths, for example through increased cancer rates, of about 2.4 million people globally according to 2020 estimates, while older placed them in

4095-561: The Greek term "holokaustos" meaning "completely burnt", refers to great destruction and loss of life, especially by fire. One early use of the word "holocaust" to describe an imagined nuclear destruction appears in Reginald Glossop's 1926 novel The Orphan of Space : "Moscow ... beneath them ... a crash like a crack of Doom! The echoes of this Holocaust rumbled and rolled ... a distinct smell of sulphur ... atomic destruction." In

4212-553: The Soviet Union during the Cold War has been called a "doomsday machine" due to its fail-deadly design and nuclear capabilities. Doomsday devices started becoming more common in science fiction in the 1940s and 1950s , due to the invention of nuclear weapons and the constant fear of total destruction. A well-known example is in the film Dr. Strangelove (1964), where a doomsday device, based on Szilard and Kahn's ideas,

4329-614: The Tableau Economique , so that future production could be planned. Meanwhile, Anne Robert Jacques Turgot first articulated the law of diminishing returns . In 1793 the Chinese bureaucrat Hong Liangji forecasted future population growth . The Industrial Revolution was on the verge of spreading across the European continent, when in 1798 Thomas Malthus published An essay on the principle of Population as it affects

4446-401: The alliterative "doomsday device" has since become the more popular phrase. Since the 1954 Castle Bravo thermonuclear weapon test demonstrated the feasibility of making arbitrarily large nuclear devices which could cover vast areas with radioactive fallout by rendering anything around them intensely radioactive, nuclear weapons theorists such as Leo Szilard conceived of a doomsday machine,

4563-426: The anti-nuclear movement and the development of popular perception of nuclear weapons . It features in the security concept of mutually assured destruction (MAD) and is a common scenario in survivalism . Nuclear holocaust is a common feature in literature and film , especially in speculative genres such as science fiction , dystopian and post-apocalyptic fiction . The English word "holocaust", derived from

4680-442: The palaeolithic period to the present provides an example. Megatrends are likely to produce greater change than any previous one, because technology is causing trends to unfold at an accelerating pace. The concept was popularized by the 1982 book Megatrends by futurist John Naisbitt . Possible new trends grow from innovations, projects, beliefs or actions and activism that have the potential to grow and eventually go mainstream in

4797-431: The " year without a summer " due to the levels of global dimming sulfate aerosols and ash expelled. The larger Mount Toba eruption , which occurred approximately 74,000 years ago, produced an estimated 2,800 km (670 cu mi) of tephra and 6,000 million tonnes (6.6 × 10 short tons) of sulfur dioxide, with a possible explosion force of 20,000,000 megatons (Mt) of TNT, forming Lake Toba and reducing

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4914-461: The 17th century prompted attempts to calculate statistical and probabilistic concepts. Objectivity became linked to knowledge that could be expressed in numerical data. In 18th century Britain, investors established mathematical formulas to assess the future value of an asset . In 1758 the French economist François Quesnay proceeded to establish a quantitative model of the entire economy, known as

5031-512: The 1990s and early 2000s is an example of the middle phases encountered before a technology can begin to be integrated into society. Education in the field of futures studies has taken place for some time. Beginning in the United States in the 1960s, it has since developed in many different countries. Futures education encourages the use of concepts, tools and processes that allow students to think long-term, consequentially, and imaginatively. It generally helps students to: Thorough documentation of

5148-489: The 1990s large technology foresight programs were launched which informed national and regional strategies on science, technology and innovation . Prior to the 1990s foresight was rarely used to describe future studies, futurology or forecasting . Foresight prognosis relied in part on the methodologies developed by the French pioneers of prospectives research, including Bertrand de Jouvenel . Foresight practitioners attempted to gather and evaluate evidence based insights for

5265-454: The 20th century. In Japan, futurists gained traction after World War I by denouncing the Meiji era and glorifying speed and technological progress. With the end of World War I interest in statistical forecasting intensified. In statistics, a forecast is a calculation of a future event's magnitude or probability . Forecasting calculates the future, while an estimate attempts to establish

5382-424: The Earth becoming uninhabitable due to the effects of nuclear warfare , potentially causing the collapse of civilization , the extinction of humanity , and/or the termination of most biological life on Earth . Besides the immediate destruction of cities by nuclear blasts, the potential aftermath of a nuclear war could involve firestorms , a nuclear winter , widespread radiation sickness from fallout , and/or

5499-577: The Future Improvement of Society . Malthus questioned optimistic utopias and theories of progress . Malthus' fear about the survival of the human race is regarded as an early European dystopia . Starting in the 1830s, Auguste Comte developed theories of social evolution and claimed that metapatterns could be discerned in social change. In the 1870s Herbert Spencer blended Compte's theories with Charles Darwin 's biological evolution theory . Social Darwinism became popular in Europe and

5616-594: The Graduate Institute of Futures Studies is an MA Program. Only ten students are accepted annually in the program. Associated with the program is the Journal of Futures Studies . The longest running Future Studies program in North America was established in 1975 at the University of Houston–Clear Lake . It moved to the University of Houston in 2007 and renamed the degree to Foresight. The program

5733-577: The Interfuture group at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Club of Rome . The Club of Rome challenged the political status quo in 1972 with the report The Limits to Growth by putting computer simulations of economic growth alongside projections of population growth . The 1972 report The Limits to Growth established environmental degradation firmly on

5850-596: The Secretary-General , it was estimated that there were a total of about 40,000 nuclear warheads in existence at that time, with a potential combined explosive yield of approximately 13,000 megatons . By comparison – in the timeline of volcanism on Earth – the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora exploded with a force of roughly 30,000 megatons, and ejected 160 km (38 cu mi) of mostly rock and tephra , which included 120 million tonnes of sulfur dioxide as an upper estimate , turning 1816 into

5967-524: The USA. By the late 19th century, the belief in human progress and the triumph of scientific invention prevailed and science fiction became a popular future narrative. In 1888 William Morris published News from Nowhere , in which he theorized about how working time could be reduced. The British H. G. Wells established the genre of "true science fiction" at the turn of the century. Well's works were supposedly based on sound scientific knowledge. Wells became

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6084-413: The assumptions made in this book have been thoroughly analyzed and determined to be "quite dubious". The impetus for Schell's work, according to physicist Brian Martin, was: The implicit premise [...] that if people are not taking action on the issue, they must not perceive it as threatening enough. Perhaps if the thought of 500 million people dying in a nuclear war is not enough to stimulate action, then

6201-457: The basis that a multitude of possible futures could be estimated, forecast, and manipulated. Futures studies was developed as an empirical research field. Inspired by Herman Kahn 's publications, future studies employed techniques such as scenario planning , game theory , and computer simulations . Historians, political scientists and sociologists who engaged in critical futures studies, such as Ossip K. Flechtheim , and Johan Galtung , laid

6318-547: The century, the probability of 1 billion dead at 10% and the probability of 1 million dead at 30%. These results reflect the median opinions of a group of experts, rather than a probabilistic model; the actual values may be much lower or higher. Scientists have argued that even a small-scale nuclear war between two countries, such as India and Pakistan, could have devastating global consequences and such local conflicts are more likely than full-scale nuclear war. In his book Reasons and Persons , philosopher Derek Parfit posed

6435-404: The communication of a strategy and the actionable steps needed to implement the plan or plans leading to the preferable future. It is in this regard, that futures studies evolves from an academic exercise to a more traditional business-like practice, looking to better prepare organizations for the future. Futures studies does not generally focus on short term predictions such as interest rates over

6552-517: The confusion. On May 27, 2012, hundreds of people gathered for a "Take the Flour Back" demonstration at Rothamsted Research in Harpenden, UK, to oppose a publicly funded trial of genetically modified wheat. This was a weak signal for a broader shift in consumer sentiment against genetically modified foods. When Whole Foods mandated the labeling of GMOs in 2013, this non-GMO idea had already become

6669-633: The country. The problem of protecting civilian infrastructure from electromagnetic pulse has also been intensively studied throughout the European Union, and in particular by the United Kingdom. While precautions have been taken, James Woolsey and the EMP Commission suggested that an EMP is the most significant threat to the U.S. The risk of an EMP, either through solar or atmospheric activity or enemy attack, while not dismissed,

6786-786: The course of the next year. Evidently, some of these predictions may come true as the year unfolds, though many fail. When predicted events fail to take place, the authors of the predictions may state that misinterpretation of the "signs" and portents may explain the failure of the prediction. Marketers have increasingly started to embrace futures studies, in an effort to benefit from an increasingly competitive marketplace with fast production cycles, using such techniques as trendspotting as popularized by Faith Popcorn . Trends come in different sizes. A megatrend extends over many generations, and in cases of climate, megatrends can cover periods prior to human existence. They describe complex interactions between many factors. The increase in population from

6903-406: The dangerous game of brinkmanship caused by the massive retaliation concept which governed US-Soviet nuclear relations in the mid-1950s. However, in his discussion of doomsday machines, Kahn raises the problem of a nuclear-armed N th country triggering a doomsday machine, and states that he didn't advocate that the US acquire a doomsday machine. The Dead Hand (or "Perimeter") system built by

7020-439: The economic and social changes the United States was experiencing. The authors identified the first wave as agricultural society , the second wave as industrial society and the nascent third wave as information society . In the 1970s, future studies focused less on Cold War scenarios and instead grappled on the impact of accelerated globalization . Pioneers of global future studies include Pierre Wack of Royal Dutch Shell ,

7137-464: The erroneous activation of doomsday devices by external factors or chain reactions . An example of both is Virus (1980), where an earthquake is misdetected as a nuclear explosion and triggers a sequence of Automated Reaction Systems (ARS) . Various types of fictional doomsday devices have also been activated as part of an AI takeover . This includes the missile launch system in the movie WarGames (1983), control of which has been handed entirely to

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7254-419: The existence of all future generations. And given the magnitude of the calamity were the human race to become extinct, Nick Bostrom argues that there is an overwhelming moral imperative to reduce even small risks of human extinction . Many scholars have posited that a global thermonuclear war with Cold War-era stockpiles, or even with the current smaller stockpiles, may lead to human extinction. This position

7371-563: The field's practitioners) seeks to understand what is likely to continue and what could plausibly change. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to explore the possibility of future events and trends. Unlike the physical sciences where a narrower, more specified system is studied, futures studies concerns a much bigger and more complex world system. The methodology and knowledge are less proven than in natural science and social sciences like sociology and economics. There used to be

7488-469: The following question: Compare three outcomes: (2) would be worse than (1), and (3) would be worse than (2). Which is the greater of these two differences? He continues that "Most people believe that the greater difference is between (1) and (2). I believe that the difference between (2) and (3) is very much greater." Thus, he argues, even if it would be bad if massive numbers of humans died, human extinction would itself be much worse because it prevents

7605-544: The foundations of peace and conflict studies as an academic discipline. The international academic dialogue on futures studies became institutionalized in the form of the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF), founded in 1967. The first doctoral program on the Study of the Future, was founded in 1969 at the University of Massachusetts by Christopher Dede and Billy Rojas. Dede also founded

7722-457: The future can be different. 1. Collapse Scenarios seek to answer: What happens if the STEEP baselines fall into ruin and no longer exist? How will that impact STEEP categories? 2. Transformation Scenarios: explore futures with the baseline of society transiting to a "new" state. How are the STEEP categories effected if society has a whole new structure? 3. New Equilibrium: examines an entire change to

7839-527: The future with some degree of accuracy. Sample predicted futures range from predicted ecological catastrophes , through a utopian future where the poorest human being lives in what present-day observers would regard as wealth and comfort, through the transformation of humanity into a posthuman life-form, to the destruction of all life on Earth in, say, a nanotechnological disaster . For reasons of convenience, futurists have often extrapolated present technical and societal trends and assumed they will develop at

7956-450: The future". There is no single set of methods that are appropriate for all futures research. Different futures researchers intentionally or unintentionally promote use of favored techniques over a more structured approach. Selection of methods for use on futures research projects has so far been dominated by the intuition and insight of practitioners; but can better identify a balanced selection of techniques via acknowledgement of foresight as

8073-709: The future. Very often, trends relate to one another the same way as a tree-trunk relates to branches and twigs. For example, a well-documented movement toward equality between men and women might represent a branch trend. The trend toward reducing differences in the salaries of men and women in the Western world could form a twig on that branch. Understanding the technology adoption cycle helps futurists monitor trend development. Trends start as weak signals by small mentions in fringe media outlets, discussion conversations or blog posts, often by innovators. As these ideas, projects, beliefs or technologies gain acceptance, they move into

8190-748: The future. Foresight research output focused on identifying challenges and opportunities, which was presented as intelligence at a strategic level. Practitioners tended to focus on particular companies or economic regions, while making no attempt to plan for specific problems. In the 1990s several future studies practitioners attempted to synthesize a coherent framework for the futures studies research field, including Wendell Bell 's two-volume work, The Foundations of Futures Studies , and Ziauddin Sardar 's Rescuing all of our Futures . Futures techniques or methodologies may be viewed as "frameworks for making sense of data generated by structured processes to think about

8307-415: The future. The future thus is not empty but fraught with hidden assumptions. For example, many people expect the collapse of the Earth's ecosystem in the near future, while others believe the current ecosystem will survive indefinitely. A foresight approach would seek to analyze and highlight the assumptions underpinning such views. As a field, futures studies expands on the research component, by emphasizing

8424-432: The global climate for a decade or more. In a regional nuclear conflict scenario where two opposing nations in the subtropics would each use 50 Hiroshima -sized nuclear weapons (about 15 kilotons each) on major populated centres, the researchers estimated as much as five million tons of soot would be released, which would produce a cooling of several degrees over large areas of North America and Eurasia , including most of

8541-402: The globally scattered location of these potential nuclear detonations all being in contrast to the singular and subterranean nature of a supervolcanic eruption. Moreover, assuming the entire world stockpile of weapons were grouped together, it would be difficult due to the nuclear fratricide effect to ensure the individual weapons would detonate all at once. Nonetheless, many people believe that

8658-436: The grain-growing regions. The cooling would last for years, and according to the research, could be "catastrophic". Additionally, the analysis showed a 10% drop in average global precipitation, with the largest losses in the low latitudes due to failure of the monsoons. Regional nuclear conflicts could also inflict significant damage to the ozone layer . A 2008 study found that a regional nuclear weapons exchange could create

8775-665: The history of futures education exists, for example in the work of Richard A. Slaughter (2004), David Hicks, Ivana Milojević to name a few. While futures studies remains a relatively new academic tradition, numerous tertiary institutions around the world teach it. These vary from small programs, or universities with just one or two classes, to programs that offer certificates and incorporate futures studies into other degrees, (for example in planning , business, environmental studies, economics, development studies, science and technology studies). Various formal Masters-level programs exist on six continents. Finally, doctoral dissertations around

8892-430: The human population to mere tens of thousands. The Chicxulub impact , connected with the extinction of the dinosaurs , corresponds to at least 70,000,000 Mt of energy, which is roughly 7000 times the combined maximum arsenal of the US and Soviet Union. Comparisons with supervolcanos are more misleading than helpful due to the different aerosols released, the likely air burst fuzing height of nuclear weapons and

9009-605: The hundreds of thousands. Nuclear fallout is the residual radioactive dust and ash propelled into the upper atmosphere following a nuclear explosion. Fallout is usually limited to the immediate area, and can only spread for hundreds of kilometers from the explosion site if the explosion is high enough in the atmosphere. Fallout may get entrained with the products of a pyrocumulus cloud and fall as black rain (rain darkened by soot and other particulates). This radioactive dust, usually consisting of fission products mixed with bystanding atoms that are neutron activated by exposure ,

9126-461: The immediate effects of nuclear blasts and radiation following a global thermonuclear war. The International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War believe that nuclear war could indirectly contribute to human extinction via secondary effects, including environmental consequences, societal breakdown , and economic collapse. The threat of a nuclear holocaust plays an important role in

9243-440: The initial explosion. Fallout and black rain may contaminate waterways, agriculture, and soil. Contact with radioactive materials can lead to radiation poisoning through external exposure or accidental consumption. In acute doses over a short amount of time radiation will lead to prodromal syndrome, bone marrow death, central nervous system death and gastrointestinal death. Over longer periods of exposure to radiation, cancer becomes

9360-455: The main health risk. Long-term radiation exposure can also lead to in utero effects on human development and transgenerational genetic damage. As a result of the extensive nuclear fallout of the 1954 Castle Bravo nuclear detonation, author Nevil Shute wrote the popular novel On the Beach , released in 1957. In this novel, so much fallout is generated in a nuclear war that all human life

9477-472: The most often cited examples of a wild card event in recent history is 9/11. Nothing had happened in the past that could point to such a possibility and yet it had a huge impact on everyday life in the United States, from simple tasks like how to travel via airplane to deeper cultural values. Wild card events might also be natural disasters, such as Hurricane Katrina , which can force the relocation of huge populations and wipe out entire crops or completely disrupt

9594-483: The necessary amount of fallout to begin to have the potential of causing human extinction is regarded by physicist and disarmament activist Joseph Rotblat to be 10 to 100 times the megatonnage in nuclear arsenals as they stood in 1976; however, with the world megatonnage decreasing since the Cold War ended this possibility remains hypothetical. According to the 1980 United Nations report General and Complete Disarmament: Comprehensive Study on Nuclear Weapons: Report of

9711-466: The next business cycle , or of managers or investors with short-term time horizons. Most strategic planning, which develops goals and objectives with time horizons of one to three years, is also not considered futures. Plans and strategies with longer time horizons that specifically attempt to anticipate possible future events are definitely part of the field. Learning about medium and long-term developments may at times be observed from their early signs. As

9828-676: The novel, an atomic weapon is planted in the office of the Soviet dictator, who, with German help and Chinese mercenaries, is preparing the takeover of Western Europe. As of 2021, humanity has about 13,410 nuclear weapons, thousands of which are on hair-trigger alert . While stockpiles have been on the decline following the end of the Cold War, every nuclear country is currently undergoing modernization of its nuclear arsenal. The Bulletin advanced their symbolic Doomsday Clock in 2015, citing among other factors "a nuclear arms race resulting from modernization of huge arsenals". In January 2020, it

9945-491: The origin of this belief was from "crude linear extrapolations" of the bombing of Hiroshima. He said that if the bomb dropped on Hiroshima had been 1,000 times as powerful, it could not have killed 1,000 times as many people. Similarly, it is common to see stated that the combined explosive energy released in the entirety of World War II was about 3 megatons, while a nuclear war with warhead stockpiles at Cold War highs would release 6000 WWII's of explosive energy. An estimate for

10062-554: The ozone hole above Antarctica every spring. It is difficult to estimate the number of casualties that would result from nuclear winter, but it is likely that the primary effect would be global famine (known as nuclear famine), wherein mass starvation occurs due to disrupted agricultural production and distribution. In 2013 and 2022 reports, the International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW) voiced concerns that more than two billion people, about

10179-423: The people on the planet would run out of food and starve to death by then" and commented that their own results show that, "This period of no food production needs to be extended by many years, making the impacts of nuclear winter even worse than previously thought." In contrast to the above investigations of global nuclear conflicts, studies have shown that even small-scale, regional nuclear conflicts could disrupt

10296-510: The phase of early adopters. In the beginning of a trend's development, it is difficult to tell if it will become a significant trend that creates changes or merely a trendy fad that fades into forgotten history. Trends will emerge as initially unconnected dots but eventually coalesce into persistent change. Some trends emerge when enough confirmation occurs in the various media, surveys or questionnaires to show that it has an increasingly accepted value, behavior or technology, it becomes accepted as

10413-407: The planet in nuclear fallout at the signal of an impending nuclear attack from another nation. The US and its doomsday device's theoretical ability to deter a nuclear attack is that it would go off automatically without human aid and despite human intervention. Kahn conceded that some planners might see "doomsday machines" as providing a highly credible threat that would dissuade attackers and avoid

10530-464: The political agenda. The environmental movement demanded of industry and policymakers to consider long-term implications when planning and investing in power plants and infrastructure. The 1990s saw a surge in futures studies in preparation for the United Nations' Millennium Development Goals , which were adopted in 2000 as international development goals for the year 2015. Throughout

10647-458: The poorest nations of the world. According to a peer-reviewed study published in the journal Nature Food in August 2022, a full-scale nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia might kill 360 million people directly and more than 5 billion people might die as a consequence from starvation due to soot created by firestorms after nuclear bombing. More than 2 billion people were projected to die as

10764-477: The power grid are dealt with using support from the outside. In the event of an EMP attack, such support would not exist and all damaged components, devices, and electronics would need to be completely replaced. In 2013, the US House of Representatives considered the "Secure High-voltage Infrastructure for Electricity from Lethal Damage Act" that would provide surge protection for some 300 large transformers around

10881-413: The purpose of exploring how people will live and work in the future. Predictive techniques, such as forecasting , can be applied, but contemporary futures studies scholars emphasize the importance of systematically exploring alternatives. In general, it can be considered as a branch of the social sciences and an extension to the field of history. Futures studies (abbreviated to "'futures" by most of

10998-402: The role "wild cards" can play on future scenarios. Second, futures studies typically attempts to gain a holistic or systemic view based on insights from a range of different disciplines, generally focusing on the STEEP categories of Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political. Third, futures studies challenges and unpacks the assumptions behind dominant and contending views of

11115-715: The same rate into the future; but technical progress and social upheavals, in reality, take place in fits and starts and in different areas at different rates. Therefore, to some degree, the field has aimed to move away from prediction. Current futurists often present multiple scenarios that help their audience envision what "may" occur instead of "predicting the future". They claim that understanding potential scenarios helps individuals and organizations prepare with flexibility. Many corporations use futurists as part of their risk management strategy, for horizon scanning and emerging issues analysis, and to identify wild cards —low probability, potentially high-impact risks. Understanding

11232-642: The seven meters estimated rise. This concept may be embedded in standard foresight projects and introduced into anticipatory decision-making activity in order to increase the ability of social groups adapt to surprises arising in turbulent business environments. Such sudden and unique incidents might constitute turning points in the evolution of a certain trend or system. Wild cards may or may not be announced by weak signals, which are incomplete and fragmented data from which relevant foresight information might be inferred. Sometimes, mistakenly, wild cards and weak signals are considered as synonyms, which they are not. One of

11349-480: The sources, patterns, and causes of change and stability in an attempt to develop foresight. Around the world the field is variously referred to as futures studies , futures research, strategic foresight , futuristics , futures thinking , futuring , and futurology . Futures studies and strategic foresight are the academic field's most commonly used terms in the English-speaking world. Foresight

11466-446: The structure of the domain. What happens if the baseline changes to a "new" baseline within the same structure of society? Johan Galtung and Sohail Inayatullah argue that the search for grand patterns goes all the way back to Sima Qian (145–90 BC) and Ibn Khaldun (1332–1406). Early western examples include Sir Thomas More 's Utopia (1516) in which a future society has overcome poverty and misery. Advances in mathematics in

11583-434: The study of emerging issues, such as megatrends , trends and weak signals . Megatrends illustrate major, long-term phenomena that change slowly, are often interlinked and cannot be transformed in an instant. Trends express an increase or a decrease in a phenomenon, and there are many ways to spot trends. Some argue that a trend persists long-term and long-range; affects many societal groups; grows slowly; and appears to have

11700-578: The supply chain of many businesses. Although wild card events cannot be predicted, after they occur it is often easy to reflect back and convincingly explain why they happened. A long-running tradition in various cultures, and especially in the media, involves various spokespersons making predictions for the upcoming year at the beginning of the year. These predictions are thought-provokers, which sometimes base themselves on current trends in culture (music, movies, fashion, politics); sometimes they make hopeful guesses as to what major events might take place over

11817-527: The temporary (if not permanent) loss of much modern technology due to electromagnetic pulses . Some scientists, such as Alan Robock , have speculated that a thermonuclear war could result in the end of modern civilization on Earth , in part due to a long-lasting nuclear winter. In one model, the average temperature of Earth following a full thermonuclear war falls for several years by 7 – 8 °C (13 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit) on average. Early Cold War -era studies suggested that billions of humans would survive

11934-450: The theory that some small plant specimenes and bacteria would be the only lifeforms to survive an all-out nuclear war. All the mentioned tests witnessed full recovery of the local ecosystem . In 1982, nuclear disarmament activist Jonathan Schell published The Fate of the Earth , which is regarded by many to be the first carefully argued presentation that concluded that extinction is a significant possibility from nuclear war. However,

12051-522: The thought of extinction will. Indeed, Schell explicitly advocates use of the fear of extinction as the basis for inspiring the "complete rearrangement of world politics" (p. 221) The belief in "overkill" is also commonly encountered, with an example being the following statement made by nuclear disarmament activist Philip Noel-Baker in 1971: "Both the US and the Soviet Union now possess nuclear stockpiles large enough to exterminate mankind three or four – some say ten – times over". Brian Martin suggested that

12168-426: The upper stratosphere, where precipitation does not occur, and therefore clearance was on the order of 10 years. In addition, they found that global cooling caused a weakening of the global hydrological cycle, reducing global precipitation by about 45%. The authors did not discuss the implications for agriculture in depth, but noted that a 1986 study which assumed no food production for a year projected that "most of

12285-451: The value of an existing quantity . In the United States, President Hoover established a Research Committee on Social Trends in 1929 headed by William F. Ogburn . Past statistics were used to chart trends and project those trends into the future. Planning became part of the political decision-making process after World War II as capitalist and communist governments across the globe produced predictive forecasts. The RAND Corporation

12402-429: The world have incorporated futures studies (see e.g. Rohrbeck, 2010; von der Gracht, 2008; Hines, 2012 ). A recent survey documented approximately 50 cases of futures studies at the tertiary level. A Futures Studies program is offered at Tamkang University , Taiwan. Futures Studies is a required course at the undergraduate level, with between three and five thousand students taking classes on an annual basis. Housed in

12519-503: The world were delivering one or more courses in futures studies. The World Futures Studies Federation has a comprehensive survey of global futures programs and courses. The Acceleration Studies Foundation maintains an annotated list of primary and secondary graduate futures studies programs. A MA Program in Futures Studies has been offered at Free University of Berlin since 2010. A MSocSc and PhD program in Futures Studies

12636-459: Was accepted and thought unlikely to happen) to Type II (high probability, high impact, but low credibility as policy makers and lobbyists push back against the science), to Type III (high probability, high impact, disputed credibility) — at least for most people: There are still some who probably will not accept the science until the Greenland ice sheet has completely melted and sea-level has risen

12753-521: Was available for the 1980s studies. A 2007 study examined the consequences of a global nuclear war involving moderate to large portions of the current global arsenal. The study found cooling by about 12–20 °C in much of the core farming regions of the US, Europe, Russia and China and as much as 35 °C in parts of Russia for the first two summer growing seasons. The changes they found were also much longer-lasting than previously thought, because their new model better represented entry of soot aerosols in

12870-431: Was bolstered when nuclear winter was first conceptualized and modelled in 1983. However, models from the past decade consider total extinction very unlikely, and suggest parts of the world would remain habitable. Technically the risk may not be zero, as the climatic effects of nuclear war are uncertain and could theoretically be larger, but also smaller, than current models suggest. There could also be indirect risks, such as

12987-437: Was established on the belief that if history is studied and taught in an academic setting, then so should the future. Its mission is to prepare professional futurists. The curriculum incorporates a blend of the essential theory, a framework and methods for doing the work, and a focus on application for clients in business, government, nonprofits, and society in general. As of 2003, over 40 tertiary education establishments around

13104-464: Was founded in 1945 to assist the US military with post-war planning. The long-term planning of military and industrial Cold War efforts peaked in the 1960s when peace research emerged as a counter-movement and the positivist idea of "the one predictable future" was called into question. In 1954 Robert Jungk published a critique of the US and the supposed colonization of the future in Tomorrow

13221-512: Was made when nuclear stockpiles were at much higher levels than they are today, it also was made before the risk of nuclear winter was first theorized in the early 1980s. Additionally, it did not consider other secondary effects, such as electromagnetic pulses (EMP), and the ramifications they would have on modern technology and industry. In the early 1980s, scientists began to consider the effects of smoke and soot arising from burning wood, plastics, and petroleum fuels in nuclear-devastated cities. It

13338-729: Was moved forward to 100 seconds before midnight. In 2023, it was moved forward to 90 seconds before midnight. John F. Kennedy estimated the probability of the Cuban Missile Crisis escalating to nuclear conflict as between 33% and 50%. In a poll of experts at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in Oxford (17–20 July 2008), the Future of Humanity Institute estimated the probability of complete human extinction by nuclear weapons at 1% within

13455-502: Was speculated that the intense heat would carry these particulates to extremely high altitudes where they could drift for weeks and block out all but a fraction of the sun's light. A landmark 1983 study by the so-called TTAPS team ( Richard P. Turco , Owen Toon , Thomas P. Ackerman, James B. Pollack and Carl Sagan ) was the first to model these effects and coined the term "nuclear winter." More recent studies make use of modern global circulation models and far greater computer power than

13572-500: Was suggested to be overblown by the news media in a commentary in Physics Today . Instead, the weapons from rogue states were still too small and uncoordinated to cause a massive EMP, underground infrastructure is sufficiently protected, and there will be enough warning time from continuous solar observatories like SOHO to protect surface transformers should a devastating solar storm be detected. One part of nuclear holocaust

13689-432: Was the original term and was first used in this sense by H. G. Wells in 1932. "Futurology" is a term common in encyclopedias, though it is used almost exclusively by nonpractitioners today, at least in the English-speaking world. "Futurology" is defined as the "study of the future". The term was coined by German professor Ossip K. Flechtheim in the mid-1940s, who proposed it as a new branch of knowledge that would include

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