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46-506: The winner of Deniyaya has matched the final country result 6 out of 8 times. Hence, Deniyaya is a Weak Bellwether for Presidential Elections. The winner of Deniyaya has matched the final country result 6 out of 7 times. Hence, Deniyaya is a Strong Bellwether for Parliamentary Elections. The Deniyaya Polling Division has a Sinhalese majority (86.2%) . In comparison, the Matara Electoral District (which contains

92-492: A bellwether, Sunderland South (Labour since 1964) was often used in election programming to predict the swing of a general election - principally because it was often the first to declare - though with variable accuracy. Since Greater London formed during 1964–1965, Hammersmith and Fulham London Borough Council elections have matched those of the party who run (usually with the GLA, or more lately Mayor of London and Assembly)

138-514: A geographic region (state, province, etc.) will vote during elections. Bellwethers in the United States typically change every election cycle due to shifts in the electorate. Bellwethers also differ by the type of elections: a midterm bellwether differs from a presidential bellwether or a party primary bellwether. American statistician and political scientist Edward Tufte and his student Richard Sun defined electoral bellwethers (in

184-409: A leading indicator of an economic trend . In the stock market , a 'bellwether' is a company or stock taken to be a leading indicator of the direction in a sector, in an industry or in the market as a whole. Bellwether stocks therefore serve as short-term guides. JPMorgan Chase is a U.S. example of a bellwether. As one of the major banks in the United States, its stock sets the tone for the rest of

230-717: A limited extent. In the Philippines, the winner of the Philippine presidential election has won in Negros Oriental in all instances since 1935 except for 1961 and 2016 , and in Basilan since its creation in December 1973 (first election in 1981 ). After Negros Oriental voted for the runner-up in 2016, Agusan del Norte and Lanao del Sur then had the longest active streak, having its provincial winners be

276-496: A majority of Fianna Fáil TDs in years when Fianna Fáil formed the government, and a majority of Fine Gael and Labour TDs when those parties formed the government. In New Zealand, there are three generally accepted bellwether electorates: Hamilton East and Hamilton West , both based around the city of Hamilton , and Northcote on Auckland 's North Shore. Hamilton West and Northcote missed one election each since they were first contested in 1969 and 1996 respectively —

322-498: A set length of time Electoral record of the states for presidential elections, 1896–2024: Highest percentage of the current party system , 1980-2024 Smallest deviation from the national average Another way to measure how much a state's results reflect the national average is how far the state deviates from the national results. The states with the least deviation from a two-party presidential vote from 1896 to 2012 include: States that were considered bellwether states from

368-583: A total of 176,933 precincts or precinct equivalents in the United States, of which 175,441 were in the 50 states plus the District of Columbia and 1,492 were in overseas U.S. territories. Electoral precincts usually do not have separate governmental authorities, but there are limited exceptions in some states. In Ohio , the voters within a precinct may vote on liquor control laws that will apply only within that precinct (called "local option elections"). When precinct boundaries are redrawn during redistricting ,

414-423: Is known as a polling district . It is typically a subdivision of a ward and the polling station for the voters within that polling district can be found within it. However, in urban areas where distances are short, the polling station for that district may for practical reasons be located in a neighbouring district, sharing polling place with that district's polling station. The UK polling districts are usually

460-587: The 1993 election for Hamilton West and the 2005 election for Northcote. Hamilton East, first contested in 1972, has missed three elections — 1993, 1999 , and 2005. They were all held by the National Party in the 2017 election although Labour formed the government after the election. Since the National Party was still returned as the largest party in Parliament, however, the two electorates did in fact retain their bellwether status, albeit to

506-418: The 1999 , 2003 and 2007 elections. The American states with the current longest streak of voting for the winners in the electoral college are Michigan , Pennsylvania , and Wisconsin ; their streaks date back to 2008. The American bellwether states can also be determined in different ways (with respect to presidential elections): Highest percentage for varying lengths of time Highest percentage for

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552-875: The 2021 German federal election the SPD placed first in 12 out of 16 states, including Schleswig-Holstein and Lower Saxony as well as federally while being led by former First Mayor of Hamburg , Olaf Scholz , the State of Hamburg borders both Lower Saxony and Schleswig-Holstein, but Scholz did not run in Hamburg during that election, instead representing the District Potsdam – Potsdam-Mittelmark II – Teltow-Fläming II in Brandenburg (where he incidentally ran against Annalena Baerbock candidate for chancellor of Alliance 90/The Greens , drawing additional media attention to

598-489: The House of Commons all see a change at least every few decades to avoid malapportionment , apart from a few island seats. It is possible to dispute any long-term bellwether, citing such changes. However, those below have kept the bulk of their electors in the main, named constituency identified with the place they are named after. Long-running bellwether constituencies Former bellwether constituencies While not strictly

644-462: The Middle English belle-weder , which referred to the practice of placing a bell around the neck of the lead wether (the castrated male sheep). A shepherd could then note the movements of the animals by hearing the bell, even when the flock was not in sight. The word was first used in the above meaning in the 15th century. In the world of economics and finance , a 'bellwether' is

690-573: The Riksdag . While since long having shifted right versus the national results, by 2022 this had further extended. In that election Ljungby was 17 points more to the right than Sweden in general. According to Statistics Sweden , election results in Karlstad were the closest to the national results for three consecutive elections around the turn of the 21st century, a fact often highlighted by media through Gallup Polls showing voting intentions in

736-698: The Deniyaya Polling Division) has a Sinhalese majority (94.3%) Ethnicity in Deniyaya The Deniyaya Polling Division has a Buddhist majority (86.3%) and a significant Hindu population (10.9%) . In comparison, the Matara Electoral District (which contains the Deniyaya Polling Division) has a Buddhist majority (94.1%) Religion in Deniyaya Bellwether A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends. In politics ,

782-563: The District). Two individual seats, Valsad and West Delhi , have successfully voted for the victorious party for the last eleven general elections in India . Furthermore, the party that wins the majority of seats in Delhi has always gone on to form the national government since 1998. The state of Uttar Pradesh is also seen as a bellwether, with the national government having been formed

828-545: The SPD and CDU/CSU respectively. Schleswig-Holstein is also famous for having had several state elections result in a one-seat majority for the winning coalition and Lower Saxony's 1998 election (in which Gerhard Schröder was the SPD candidate) is often seen as a "trial run" for the subsequent federal election (which Schröder also won). Of the first vote constituencies ( Erststimmen ), the constituency of Pinneberg (also located in Schleswig-Holstein) has voted for

874-619: The US) into the following categories: In Australian federal elections, the Division of Robertson in New South Wales became the nation's new longest-running bellwether seat, continuously won by the party that also won government since the 1983 federal election . Previously, the electoral division of Eden-Monaro elected its Member of Parliament from the party which won government at every federal election from 1972 until 2016 , when

920-459: The area. Karlstad swung to the left in the 2010s and by 2022 was seven points to the left of Sweden. Therefore, Karlstad is no longer a proper bellwether town. By 2022, the status of bellwethers in Sweden often moved to post-industrial towns for differences between the various municipalities, but also some commuter towns being candidates. This status shifted rapidly due to the big cities moving to

966-460: The banking industry. JPMorgan Chase also has contracts with companies in other industries, so its performance is reflected in other sectors of the market. Tata Consultancy Services is similarly a bellwether for technology stocks in the Indian markets, BSE and NSE . Similarly, a bellwether bond is "a government bond whose changes in interest rate are believed to show the future direction of

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1012-447: The constituencies of Almond Valley , Dundee City West , Edinburgh Eastern , Glasgow Southside , Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley and Mid Fife and Glenrothes each elected an MSP from the largest party in the 2011 and 2016 elections. This continues the trend that their predecessor constituencies ( Livingston , Dundee West , Edinburgh East & Musselburgh , Glasgow Govan , Kilmarnock & Loudoun and Fife Central ) achieved in

1058-500: The elected president since the 1969 election . Lanao del Sur then voted for the loser in 2022, giving Agusan del Norte the longest streak. For vice presidential elections, Pangasinan has voted for the winner in all elections save for 1986 and 2016 . In every general election to the Portuguese National Assembly since the restoration of democracy in 1975, the electoral district of Braga has voted for

1104-418: The highest percentage in the elections. Presidential elections The counties that voted in the first round for the winning candidate: The expression " Som Ljungby röstar röstar Sverige " ('As Ljungby votes, Sweden votes') was coined in the early-1970s, but more recently (in 2006) voting results in Karlstad , Kalmar , and Halmstad more closely resembled the result of the whole nation in elections to

1150-418: The largest population of any Australian state or territory, could also be considered a "bellwether", as, until the 2016 federal election the party which wins government has won the majority of House of Representatives seats in that state at every election since 1963 . Unlike many bellwethers, these are cited by analysts solely for their record and are not usually attributed to demographic factors that reflect

1196-456: The left and smaller towns to the right. Among sizeable municipalities that came within half a point of the national average in 2022 included Alingsås , Borlänge , Gävle and Karlskoga . These municipalites were won by the right coalition with narrow margins. In addition, several smaller municipalities came close to the national coalition differential, although no locations closely mirrored exact party results. United Kingdom constituencies of

1242-510: The majority of times by the party that won the most seats in the state. Ireland has a proportional representation electoral system, in which politicians are elected by the single transferable vote . Bellwethers here can only be measured by the number of candidates from each side elected to Ireland's multiple-seat constituencies that elect an odd number of members. Between the 1981 general election and 2011 general election , Meath and its successors, Meath East and Meath West , have elected

1288-467: The median of Australia. Below are seats that have been classified as bellwether seats won by the party forming government at least once at one of the past 10 elections. Below the winning party is the two-party-preferred vote . In the Canadian province of Ontario , Sarnia—Lambton (and its predecessor ridings) voted for the winning party in every federal election from 1963 until 2011 . This streak

1334-541: The mid-to-late 20th century include: Electoral precinct A precinct or voting district (U.S. terms), polling district (UK term) or polling division (Canadian term), is a subdivision of an electoral district , typically a contiguous area within which all electors go to a single polling place to cast their ballots. In elections in Canada , the area is called a polling division . Canadian political parties do not have elections for positions representing

1380-459: The most London authorities except went its "miss" to Labour's majority of London councils in 2010 (which has endured since) and the reverse miss in 1978 and 1982. In the latter two results no overall control was the local result. The constituencies of Cunninghame North , Stirling and Na h-Eileanan an Iar have all elected MSPs from the party which won the plurality of seats in the election overall for every Scottish Parliament election . Also,

1426-417: The party of the subsequently chosen Chancellor in all elections except for 1949. Both the 1949 and the 1969 elections were rather narrow, the former resulting in a one-vote majority in the election for chancellor and the latter resulting in a 12-seat majority that had broken down due to defections by 1972. In 2005 SPD and CDU/CSU were only separated by one percentage point and four seats in the final tally. In

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1472-467: The party of the subsequently chosen Chancellor the most times is Schleswig-Holstein (with two misses: 1969 and 2005 ), followed by the state of Lower Saxony (with misses in 1949 , 1969 and 2005). Both states lie in the North of the country, neither containing many large industrial cities (the biggest being Kiel and Hannover respectively), nor large rural Catholic populations, the traditional base of

1518-587: The party or coalition that has won the most seats in the election. (Note that following the elections of 2015 , a minority government was eventually formed by the second-largest party in the Assembly.) In every general, European Union , mayoral (except 2009), or presidential elections since the Carnation Revolution , the Portuguese capital of Lisbon voted for the party or coalition that won

1564-511: The provincial electoral district Peace River has elected only three opposition MLAs since the province was founded in 1905. In Manitoba , the federal district of Winnipeg South has voted for the winning party in each election since it was re-formed in 1988 ; a previous version of the same riding, which elected MPs from 1917 until 1974 inclusive, voted against the national winner only three times, most recently in 1965 . Also in Manitoba,

1610-496: The provincial riding of Rossmere , which has existed since 1969 , has voted for the candidate from the governing party in every general election since it was first contested except for that of 1977 ; it also elected opposition MLAs at by-elections in 1979 and 1993. Since the creation of the Federal Republic of Germany (then West Germany ) in 1949, the state where the leading party list vote ( Zweitstimmen ) matched

1656-632: The record was broken after Labor won the seat, while the Coalition won government. The Division of Lindsay in NSW, has elected its Member of Parliament from the party which won government in every Federal election since its creation in 1984 until 2016. Both Lindsay and Eden-Monaro lost their bellwether status at the 2016 federal election , both electing Labor MPs, despite a narrow Coalition win nationwide. The Division of Makin in South Australia

1702-572: The rest of the bond market ." The quarterly Bellwether Report , published by the Institute of Practitioners in Advertising (IPA), monitors trends in expenditure in the UK advertising and marketing industry. In politics , the term bellwether often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that

1748-407: The result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. In a Westminster -style election, for example, a constituency , the control of which tends frequently to change, can have a popular vote that mirrors the result on a national scale. An electoral bellwether can be a ward , precinct , town , county , or other district that accurately reflects how

1794-691: The result of the vote continues to bind the areas that were formerly inside the precinct's boundaries, although it does not bind any areas that have been newly added to the precinct since the vote. In addition, in Alabama, in those counties that have not abolished the constable system, constables are elected from individual electoral precincts. In a political party, individuals, known by various titles such as precinct committeeman , precinct captain, or Precinct Committee Officer, are elected by ballot or county party executive committee, to represent precinct residents in every level of party operations. They report to

1840-703: The same polling station. A 2004 survey by the United States Election Assistance Commission reported an average precinct size in the United States of approximately 1,100 registered voters. Kansas had the smallest average precinct size with 437 voters per precinct, while the District of Columbia had the largest average size at 2,704 voters per precinct. The 2020 survey by the United States Election Assistance Commission found

1886-530: The same, regardless of type of election. In the United States , an electoral precinct or voting district is the smallest unit into which electoral districts are divided. A larger geographic unit such as a county , township , or city council district is typically subdivided into precincts and each address is assigned to a specific precinct. Each precinct has a specific polling station where its residents go to vote; however, more than one precinct may use

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1932-498: The term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. In economics , a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend . Sociologists apply the term in the active sense to a person or group of people who tend to create, influence, or set trends . The term derives from

1978-482: The voters in a polling division, although parties may assign volunteers to canvass a poll, or to be an outside scrutineer pulling the vote (i.e. reminding supporters to go to vote) on Election Day or an advance polling day, or to be an inside scrutineer in the polling station noting who has come to vote so that can be communicated to an outside scrutineer. In elections in the United Kingdom , this subdivision

2024-483: The winning party since 1984 . Also in Ontario, Peterborough—Kawartha (called Peterborough until 2015) has consistently elected the party which has won the provincial election since 1977 . In federal politics, the coterminous federal electoral district Peterborough—Kawartha (also called Peterborough until 2015) elected a member of the winning party from 1965 to 1979 and 1984 until 2021 , inclusive. In Alberta ,

2070-487: Was a bellwether division from 1984 to 2010, although ceased its bellwether record in 2013, when Makin stayed Labor as the Coalition regained power nationwide. Also, in terms of nationwide two party preferred vote, Eden-Monaro , Lindsay , Robertson and Makin have bucked the bellwether trend in the past by voting Liberal at the 1998 federal election . In purely statistical terms, the state of New South Wales , which has

2116-580: Was broken in 2015 , when the Conservative Party held the district while the Liberal Party won government, and the riding has become reliably Conservative since. Toronto—St. Paul's has only elected three opposition MPs since it contested its first election, as St. Paul's, in 1935 , although it has become reliably Liberal in recent years. Burlington and St. Catharines currently share the longest active streak, having elected an MP from

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