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70-562: In 1997, the National Association of Drug Court Professionals in the United States published Defining Drug Courts: The Key Components . They named these as key components: How effective drug courts are largely depends on how well they adhere to the ten key components described above. The United States has more drug courts than any other country in the world, so most studies of their effectiveness are based on results in

140-627: A better result than 20% was the GAO analysis from 2011. This described reductions in recidivism from 32 different US drug courts, one of which achieved a reduction in the re-arrest rate of 26%. This was the Kings County Drug Treatment Alternative to Prison Program (DTAP) in New York which is “recognized as one of the nation’s most successful diversion programmes”. However, the reason this result appears better than all

210-465: A conditional is sometimes referred to as its "if"-clause or protasis . The consequent of a conditional is sometimes referred to as a "then" -clause or as an apodosis. Counterfactuals were first discussed by Nelson Goodman as a problem for the material conditional used in classical logic . Because of these problems, early work such as that of W.V. Quine held that counterfactuals are not strictly logical, and do not make true or false claims about

280-521: A contrary-to-fact meaning, regardless of their grammatical structure. Along similar lines, the term "subjunctive" is sometimes used to refer to conditionals that bear fake past or irrealis marking, regardless of the meaning they convey. Recently the term X-Marked has been proposed as a replacement, evoking the ex tra marking that these conditionals bear. Those adopting this terminology refer to indicative conditionals as O-Marked conditionals, reflecting their o rdinary marking. The antecedent of

350-452: A counterfactual A > B as true if B holds across some set of possible worlds where A is true. They vary mainly in how they identify the set of relevant A-worlds. David Lewis 's variably strict conditional is considered the classic analysis within philosophy. The closely related premise semantics proposed by Angelika Kratzer is often taken as the standard within linguistics. However, there are numerous possible worlds approaches on

420-444: A dedicated counterfactual morphemes , while others recruit morphemes which otherwise express tense , aspect , mood , or a combination thereof. Since the early 2000s, linguists, philosophers of language, and philosophical logicians have intensely studied the nature of this grammatical marking, and it continues to be an active area of study. In many languages, counterfactuality is marked by past tense morphology. Since these uses of

490-520: A donkey. The counterfactual example uses the fake tense form "owned" in the "if" clause and the past-inflected modal "would" in the "then" clause. As a result, it conveys that Sally does not in fact own a donkey. English has several other grammatical forms whose meanings are sometimes included under the umbrella of counterfactuality. One is the past perfect counterfactual, which contrasts with indicatives and simple past counterfactuals in its use of pluperfect morphology: Another kind of conditional uses

560-478: A formal implementation of the Ramsey test . In these systems, a counterfactual A > B holds if and only if the addition of A to the current body of knowledge has B as a consequence. This condition relates counterfactual conditionals to belief revision , as the evaluation of A > B can be done by first revising the current knowledge with A and then checking whether B is true in what results. Revising

630-543: A natural language conditional, a statement of the form "if P then Q", is true whenever its antecedent, P, is false. Since counterfactual conditionals are those whose antecedents are false, this analysis would wrongly predict that all counterfactuals are vacuously true. Goodman illustrates this point using the following pair in a context where it is understood that the piece of butter under discussion had not been heated. More generally, such examples show that counterfactuals are not truth-functional. In other words, knowing whether

700-399: A smaller fraction of an inch to the left of its actual position, but none of which is uniquely the closest. (See Lewis 1973: 20.) One consequence of Stalnaker's acceptance of the uniqueness assumption is that, if the law of excluded middle is true, then all instances of the formula (A > C) ∨ (A > ¬C) are true. The law of excluded middle is the thesis that for all propositions p, p ∨ ¬p

770-446: A subjunctive). Moreover, languages that do use the subjunctive for such conditionals only do so if they have a specific past subjunctive form. Thus, subjunctive marking is neither necessary nor sufficient for membership in this class of conditionals. The terms counterfactual and subjunctive have sometimes been repurposed for more specific uses. For instance, the term "counterfactual" is sometimes applied to conditionals that express

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840-404: A variety of different measures for recidivism (such as re-arrest, reconviction, or re-imprisonment) which tends to confound the results. And the claimed reductions in recidivism were all based on a 12-month follow-up period which mostly overlapped with the period that participants were still in treatment in the court. Recidivism rates generally increase significantly after completing treatment when

910-475: A variety of factors. In the U.S. nearly 44% of prisoners return to prison within 12 months of release. The rate varies from state to state. In any given state, the re-incarceration rate would need to compared with the re-incarceration rate of drug court participants in that state - which is different from the re-arrest rate usually reported in drug court evaluations. The availability of rehabilitation programs also varies from state to state. So another counterfactual

980-526: Is (a) vacuously true if and only if there are no worlds where A is true (for example, if A is logically or metaphysically impossible); (b) non-vacuously true if and only if, among the worlds where A is true, some worlds where C is true are closer to the actual world than any world where C is not true; or (c) false otherwise. Although in Lewis's Counterfactuals it was unclear what he meant by 'closeness', in later writings, Lewis made it clear that he did not intend

1050-451: Is a closest world where the fair coin mentioned in (1) and (2) is flipped and at that world either it lands heads or it lands tails. So either (1) is true and (2) is false or (1) is false and (2) true. On Lewis's analysis, however, both (1) and (2) are false, for the worlds where the fair coin lands heads are no more or less close than the worlds where they land tails. For Lewis, "If the coin had been flipped, it would have landed heads or tails"

1120-421: Is easy when A is consistent with the current beliefs, but can be hard otherwise. Every semantics for belief revision can be used for evaluating conditional statements. Conversely, every method for evaluating conditionals can be seen as a way for performing revision. Ginsberg (1986) has proposed a semantics for conditionals which assumes that the current beliefs form a set of propositional formulae , considering

1190-428: Is illustrated by Sobel sequences such as the following: One way of formalizing this fact is to say that the principle of Antecedent Strengthening should not hold for any connective > intended as a formalization of natural language conditionals. The most common logical accounts of counterfactuals are couched in the possible world semantics . Broadly speaking, these approaches have in common that they treat

1260-425: Is not vacuously true when its antecedent is false. To see why, observe that both P {\displaystyle P} and ◻ ( P → Q ) {\displaystyle \Box (P\rightarrow Q)} will be false at w {\displaystyle w} if there is some accessible world v {\displaystyle v} where P {\displaystyle P}

1330-726: Is to compare reoffending rates of drug court participants in a given state with prisoners who attended addiction treatment while in prison in that state. In Australia , drug courts operate in various jurisdictions , although their formation, process and procedures differ. The main aim of the Australian courts is to divert illicit drug users from incarceration into treatment programs for their addiction. Drug courts have been established in New South Wales , Queensland , South Australia , Victoria , and Western Australia . People appearing in Australian drug courts often fall outside

1400-402: Is true and Q {\displaystyle Q} is not. The strict conditional is also context-dependent, at least when given a relational semantics (or something similar). In the relational framework, accessibility relations are parameters of evaluation which encode the range of possibilities which are treated as "live" in the context. Since the truth of a strict conditional can depend on

1470-406: Is true, but this does not entail that "If the coin had been flipped, it would have landed heads, or: If the coin had been flipped it would have landed tails." The causal models framework analyzes counterfactuals in terms of systems of structural equations . In a system of equations, each variable is assigned a value that is an explicit function of other variables in the system. Given such a model,

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1540-405: Is true. If the uniqueness assumption is true, then for every antecedent A, there is a uniquely closest world where A is true. If the law of excluded middle is true, any consequent C is either true or false at that world where A is true. So for every counterfactual A > C, either A > C or A > ¬C is true. This is called conditional excluded middle (CEM). Example: On Stalnaker's analysis, there

1610-405: Is understood as material implication . This approach was first proposed in 1912 by C.I. Lewis as part of his axiomatic approach to modal logic. In modern relational semantics , this means that the strict conditional is true at w iff the corresponding material conditional is true throughout the worlds accessible from w . More formally: Unlike the material conditional, the strict conditional

1680-406: The limit and uniqueness assumptions . The uniqueness assumption is the thesis that, for any antecedent A, among the possible worlds where A is true, there is a single ( unique ) one that is closest to the actual world. The limit assumption is the thesis that, for a given antecedent A, if there is a chain of possible worlds where A is true, each closer to the actual world than its predecessor, then

1750-527: The Center for Advancing Justice—All Rise provides training and technical assistance at the local and national level, advocates for federal and state funding, and collaborates with public and private entities. All Rise works in every U.S. state and territory and in countries throughout the world. Founded as the National Association of Drug Court Professionals (NADCP) in 1994, All Rise has been at

1820-543: The USA. Out of thousands of drug courts operating in the US, 40% of states which have them do not have a management information system, required by the key components, which would enable their performance to be monitored properly. Another factor which affects how successful a drug court appears to be is the length of the follow-up period after participants have finished treatment. The longer the follow-up (sometimes as much as four years),

1890-572: The accessibility relation used to evaluate it, this feature of the strict conditional can be used to capture context-dependence. The strict conditional analysis encounters many known problems, notably monotonicity. In the classical relational framework, when using a standard notion of entailment, the strict conditional is monotonic, i.e. it validates Antecedent Strengthening . To see why, observe that if P → Q {\displaystyle P\rightarrow Q} holds at every world accessible from w {\displaystyle w} ,

1960-560: The analysis, 54% (of participants overall) were less likely to reoffend and 58% less likely to go back to prison in the following 12 months. In the UK , drug courts are currently being tested in various places. In December 2005, the United Kingdom began a pilot scheme of dedicated drug courts. Family Drug and Alcohol Court are in operation in various locations throughout the country, including London, Gloucestershire and Milton Keynes where

2030-433: The antecedent and consequent are actually true is not sufficient to determine whether the counterfactual itself is true. Counterfactuals are context dependent and vague . For example, either of the following statements can be reasonably held true, though not at the same time: Counterfactuals are non-monotonic in the sense that their truth values can be changed by adding extra material to their antecedents. This fact

2100-417: The chain has a limit : a possible world where A is true that is closer to the actual worlds than all worlds in the chain. (The uniqueness assumption entails the limit assumption, but the limit assumption does not entail the uniqueness assumption.) On Stalnaker's account, A > C is non-vacuously true if and only if, at the closest world where A is true, C is true. So, the above example is true just in case at

2170-511: The characteristic grammatical form of a counterfactual conditional, but does not convey that its antecedent is false or unlikely. Such conditionals are also widely referred to as subjunctive conditionals , though this term is likewise acknowledged as a misnomer even by those who use it. Many languages do not have a morphological subjunctive (e.g. Danish and Dutch ) and many that do have it do not use it for this sort of conditional (e.g. French , Swahili , all Indo-Aryan languages that have

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2240-400: The country. One finding was that the longer drug court judges worked with addicts, and the more experience they had in the court (key component #7), the better the success rates were for participants. The authors of the study concluded that "this model provides clear support that drug court does reduce criminal recidivism". Another important factor in determining a drug court's effectiveness is

2310-708: The court for nonviolent offenders to receive treatment . In the United States , according to the National Association of Drug Court Professionals , as of December 31, 2014, there are 3,057 drug courts representing all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Guam, Puerto Rico, Northern Mariana Islands, and various tribal regions. There are many variations to drug courts and more recently some have opened up to deal specifically with women drug users. Some even treat women who engage in prostitution because of their drug addiction. A research study has shown how addiction can be

2380-422: The first 12 months). The authors noted that "the research on long-term outcomes was less definitive". Another way of measuring the effectiveness of drug courts is to compare them with 'business as usual' or a variety of counterfactuals . One counterfactual is that drug addicted offenders would likely be sent to prison if a drug court was not available. Recidivism rates vary from one country to another depending on

2450-506: The first edition of the standards has been retracted or found to be erroneous in subsequent studies. The Adult Treatment Court Best Practice Standards: All Rise annually convenes the preeminent conference on the intersection of substance use, mental health, and justice reform. RISE23 was attended by over 6,000 justice and treatment professionals. RISE24 will be held in Anaheim, California from May 22-25, 2024. While Karen Freeman-Wilson

2520-400: The forefront of justice system transformation for nearly three decades. As the leader of the treatment court movement, All Rise helps prove that a combination of evidence-based treatment and accountability is the most effective justice system response to individuals with substance use and mental health disorders. All Rise has trained over 800,000 public health and public safety professionals, and

2590-422: The form "were", generally referred to as the irrealis or subjunctive form. Past perfect and irrealis counterfactuals can undergo conditional inversion : The term counterfactual conditional is widely used as an umbrella term for the kinds of sentences shown above. However, not all conditionals of this sort express contrary-to-fact meanings. For instance, the classic example known as the "Anderson Case" has

2660-522: The justice system identifies, assesses, and treats our veterans. The Center for Advancing Justice empowers emerging justice system innovations to address substance use and mental health and promote recovery. In 2013 and 2015, NADCP released volumes I and II of the Adult Drug Court Best Practice Standards. Representing 25 years of empirical study on addiction, pharmacology, behavioral health, and criminal justice,

2730-566: The level of supervision falls away. Evaluations of individual drug courts where compliance with the ten key components is monitored, tend to show better results. One such study of a mature drug court which has been operating for over ten years found that over the entire period, the re-arrest rate declined by nearly 30%. This was the Multnomah County Drug Court in Portland, Oregon , which is the second oldest drug court in

2800-405: The literature, with accounts such as Willer (2019) arguing that a strict conditional account can cover these exceptions as well. In the variably strict approach, the semantics of a conditional A > B is given by some function on the relative closeness of worlds where A is true and B is true, on the one hand, and worlds where A is true but B is not, on the other. On Lewis's account, A > C

2870-497: The market, including dynamic variants of the strict conditional analysis originally dismissed by Lewis. The strict conditional analysis treats natural language counterfactuals as being equivalent to the modal logic formula ◻ ( P → Q ) {\displaystyle \Box (P\rightarrow Q)} . In this formula, ◻ {\displaystyle \Box } expresses necessity and → {\displaystyle \rightarrow }

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2940-430: The maximal sets of these formulae that are consistent with A , and adding A to each. The rationale is that each of these maximal sets represents a possible state of belief in which A is true that is as similar as possible to the original one. The conditional statement A > B therefore holds if and only if B is true in all such sets. Languages use different strategies for expressing counterfactuality. Some have

3010-473: The metric of 'closeness' to be simply our ordinary notion of overall similarity . Example: On Lewis's account, the truth of this statement consists in the fact that, among possible worlds where he ate more for breakfast, there is at least one world where he is not hungry at 11 am and which is closer to our world than any world where he ate more for breakfast but is still hungry at 11 am. Stalnaker's account differs from Lewis's most notably in his acceptance of

3080-465: The monotonicity of the material conditional guarantees that P ∧ R → Q {\displaystyle P\land R\rightarrow Q} will be too. Thus, we will have that ◻ ( P → Q ) ⊨ ◻ ( P ∧ R → Q ) {\displaystyle \Box (P\rightarrow Q)\models \Box (P\land R\rightarrow Q)} . This fact led to widespread abandonment of

3150-552: The more likely participants are to relapse and reoffend. Results almost always look better if the follow-up period is only 12 months, while participants are often still engaged in the treatment program ordered by the court. As a result of these methodological issues, meta-studies which have been conducted over the years describe quite variable results. Few studies have found drug courts which reduce reoffending by more than 20%. Studies which have found more positive results may not have taken confounding issues into account which undermine

3220-689: The most studied phenomena in philosophical logic , formal semantics , and philosophy of language . They were first discussed as a problem for the material conditional analysis of conditionals, which treats them all as trivially true. Starting in the 1960s, philosophers and linguists developed the now-classic possible world approach, in which a counterfactual's truth hinges on its consequent holding at certain possible worlds where its antecedent holds. More recent formal analyses have treated them using tools such as causal models and dynamic semantics . Other research has addressed their metaphysical, psychological, and grammatical underpinnings, while applying some of

3290-434: The natural and social sciences, since each structural equation in those domains corresponds to a familiar causal mechanism that can be meaningfully reasoned about by investigators. This approach was developed by Judea Pearl (2000) as a means of encoding fine-grained intuitions about causal relations which are difficult to capture in other proposed systems. In the belief revision framework, counterfactuals are treated using

3360-506: The needs of children. One research study on juvenile drug courts stated that many previous research studies have inconsistent results due to different methodological problems making the results hard to generalize to the population. This research study done over ten randomized different jurisdictions shows promising results. The results show that juvenile drug courts reduced marijuana use rates, increased accessibility to resources, and overall reduced rearrest rates also known as recidivism. However,

3430-521: The number of treatment courts in the United States has grown to more than 4,000, helping more than 1.5 million people access treatment. All Rise operates its training and technical support services through four divisions: The Treatment Court Institute leads training, technical assistance, and research dissemination for more than 4,000 treatment court programs. Impaired Driving Solutions uplifts communities by delivering curated solutions to eliminate impaired driving. Justice for Vets transforms how

3500-546: The others is because it refers solely to reduced offending by graduates – those who completed the programme. The other drug courts in this analysis appear less successful because their results include defendants who dropped out of treatment and reoffended. A meta-study in the Journal of Criminal Justice looked at 154 independent drug court evaluations. It claimed that participation in one of these courts led to "a drop in recidivism" between 38% and 50%. However, these studies used

3570-602: The parameters for other pre-court services Drug treatment courts (DTCs) are a recent phenomenon in the Canadian criminal justice system. The first Canadian DTC commenced in Toronto in 1998. The Federal Government currently supports Edmonton (December 2005), Winnipeg (January 2006), Ottawa (March 2006), Regina (October 2006), Toronto (1998), and Vancouver (2001). Hamilton, Calgary and Durham have also recently initiated DTCs. A five-year pilot Alcohol and Other Drug Treatment Court

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3640-459: The past tense do not convey their typical temporal meaning, they are called fake past or fake tense . English is one language which uses fake past to mark counterfactuality, as shown in the following minimal pair . In the indicative example, the bolded words are present tense forms. In the counterfactual example, both words take their past tense form. This use of the past tense cannot have its ordinary temporal meaning, since it can be used with

3710-470: The positive effects observed were small to moderate. The effects in this study were discovered to be more beneficial for high-risk youth. Drug courts have had many successful graduates. They have bi-partisan support in the political arena. National Association of Drug Court Professionals The National Association of Drug Court Professionals ( NADCP ) is the former name of All Rise, an American 501(c)(3) non-profit organization devoted to furthering

3780-553: The reliability of their conclusions. For instance, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) study from 2005, which assessed 27 different drug courts, found that 24 of them reduced recidivism by between 1% and 13%. But one court in this study reported a reduction of 35%, which appeared to make it one of the best performing drug courts in the United States. However, this result was based on a follow-up period of only 12 months. Another study which suggested

3850-407: The resultant insights to fields including history, marketing, and epidemiology. An example of the difference between indicative and counterfactual conditionals is the following English minimal pair : These conditionals differ in both form and meaning. The indicative conditional uses the present tense form "owns" and therefore conveys that the speaker is agnostic about whether Sally in fact owns

3920-420: The results of mental illness derived from interpersonal violence. This shows that crime that results from drug addiction can be tied to trauma that is a result of interpersonal violence. This indicates a societal problem that must be dealt with treatment instead of incarceration. Drug courts also exist to treat juveniles with substance abuse issues. They work similarly to adult drug courts but are tailored to meet

3990-554: The retention and graduation rate. For instance, the King's County DTAP programme attributes its 35% reduction in re-arrests to its excellent retention rate of 71% in the first 12 months of the programme. But over the following four years, its graduation rate falls to 41%. A review conducted in 2001 for the National Drug Court Institute Program found that graduation rates nationally were around 47% (in

4060-413: The sentence " Y would be y had X been x " (formally, X = x > Y = y ) is defined as the assertion: If we replace the equation currently determining X with a constant X = x , and solve the set of equations for variable Y , the solution obtained will be Y = y . This definition has been shown to be compatible with the axioms of possible world semantics and forms the basis for causal inference in

4130-488: The sequence proceeds. In his system, a counterfactual like "If Hannah had drunk coffee, she would be happy" would normally be evaluated using a model where Hannah's coffee is gasoline-free in all accessible worlds. If this same model were used to evaluate a subsequent utterance of "If Hannah had drunk coffee and the coffee had gasoline in it...", this second conditional would come out as trivially true, since there are no accessible worlds where its antecedent holds. Warmbrōd's idea

4200-730: The service is run by the Tavistock and Portman NHS Foundation Trust . In February 2015 it was announced that more would open in East Sussex, Kent and Medway, Plymouth, Torbay and Exeter, and West Yorkshire. The first drug court in the US took shape in Miami-Dade County, Florida in 1989 as a response to the growing crack cocaine problem plaguing the city. Chief Judge Gerald Wetherington, Judge Herbert Klein, then State Attorney Janet Reno , and Public Defender Bennett Brummer designed

4270-403: The single, closest world where he ate more breakfast, he does not feel hungry at 11 am. Although it is controversial, Lewis rejected the limit assumption (and therefore the uniqueness assumption) because it rules out the possibility that there might be worlds that get closer and closer to the actual world without limit. For example, there might be an infinite series of worlds, each with a coffee cup

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4340-616: The standards are the foundation upon which all adult drug courts should operate. In 2023, All Rise released the second edition of the standards, now named Adult Treatment Court Best Practice Standards. The second edition incorporates best practices discerned over the past decade in a range of adult treatment court models, addresses frequently asked questions from the field, builds on the experiences and observations of All Rise faculty and audiences, and provides in-depth commentary and practical tips to help programs implement best practices in their day-to-day operations. Importantly, no provision from

4410-443: The strict conditional comes from Irene Heim's observation that Sobel Sequences are generally infelicitous (i.e. sound strange) in reverse. Sarah Moss (2012) and Karen Lewis (2018) have responded to these arguments, showing that a version of the variably strict analysis can account for these patterns, and arguing that such an account is preferable since it can also account for apparent exceptions. As of 2020, this debate continues in

4480-416: The strict conditional, in particular in favor of Lewis's variably strict analysis . However, subsequent work has revived the strict conditional analysis by appealing to context sensitivity. This approach was pioneered by Warmbrōd (1981), who argued that Sobel sequences do not demand a non-monotonic logic, but in fact can rather be explained by speakers switching to more permissive accessibility relations as

4550-705: The treatment court model and criminal justice reform worldwide. In 2023, NADCP announced it was rebranding to All Rise. All Rise is the leading training, membership, and advocacy organization for advancing justice system responses to individuals with substance use and mental health disorders. All Rise impacts every stage of the justice system, from first contact with law enforcement to corrections and reentry, and works with public health leaders to improve treatment outcomes for justice-involved individuals. Through its four divisions—the Treatment Court Institute, Impaired Driving Solutions, Justice for Vets, and

4620-426: The world. However, in the 1960s and 1970s, work by Robert Stalnaker and David Lewis showed that these problems are surmountable given an appropriate intensional logical framework. Work since then in formal semantics , philosophical logic , philosophy of language , and cognitive science has built on this insight, taking it in a variety of different directions. According to the material conditional analysis,

4690-453: Was CEO of NADCP she helped get a trial of Gabasync (Prometa), a combination of flumazenil , hydroxyzine , and the psychoactive drug gabapentin , promoted as treatment for methamphetamine addiction, launched in the Gary, Indiana drug court despite not having clinical trials or FDA approval. She then took a job offer to be on the board of directors at Hythiam, the company marketing Prometa that

4760-593: Was opened in Auckland , New Zealand, in 2012, the first of its type for the country. Since the pilot was established, 46% of participants have graduated. According to the New Zealand Drug Foundation, this rate is six times higher than that achieved by most ‘voluntary’ rehabilitation programmes. Graduates were 62% less likely to reoffend and 71% less likely to return to prison in the first 12 months after treatment. When non-graduates were included in

4830-934: Was owned by convicted fraudster Terren Peizer . Hythiam charged up to $ 15,000 for treatment that was split between Hythiam and physicians. Clinical trials funded by Hythiam and performed by the UCLA found Gabasync to be ineffective for the treatment of addictions. Counterfactual Counterfactual conditionals (also contrafactual , subjunctive or X-marked ) are conditional sentences which discuss what would have been true under different circumstances, e.g. "If Peter believed in ghosts, he would be afraid to be here." Counterfactuals are contrasted with indicatives , which are generally restricted to discussing open possibilities. Counterfactuals are characterized grammatically by their use of fake tense morphology , which some languages use in combination with other kinds of morphology including aspect and mood . Counterfactuals are one of

4900-503: Was that speakers will switch to a model with a more permissive accessibility relation in order to avoid this triviality. Subsequent work by Kai von Fintel (2001), Thony Gillies (2007), and Malte Willer (2019) has formalized this idea in the framework of dynamic semantics , and given a number of linguistic arguments in favor. One argument is that conditional antecedents license negative polarity items , which are thought to be licensed only by monotonic operators. Another argument in favor of

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