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44-459: Immediately after the launch, many analysts assumed that a Hwasong-14 had been fired; subsequently, however, the North Korean government released video of the launch showing a completely different missile. North Korea claimed the missile reached an altitude of around 4,475 km and traveled 950 km downrange, flying for a total time of 53 minutes. Based on its trajectory and distance,

88-438: A ballistic missile deploys multiple warheads above a single aimpoint which then drift apart, producing a cluster bomb-like effect. These warheads are not individually targetable. The advantage of an MRV over a single warhead is the increased effectiveness due to the greater coverage; this increases the overall damage produced within the center of the pattern, making it far greater than the damage possible from any single warhead in

132-490: A covert purpose to map mass concentrations and determine local gravity anomalies , in order to improve accuracies of ballistic missiles. Accuracy is expressed as circular error probable (CEP). This is the radius of the circle that the warhead has a 50 percent chance of falling into when aimed at the center. CEP is about 90–100 m for the Trident II and Peacekeeper missiles. A multiple re-entry vehicle (MRV) system for

176-624: A factor of 6 while the Soviets increased theirs by a factor of 10. Furthermore, the US had a much smaller proportion of its nuclear arsenal in ICBMs than the Soviets. Bombers could not be outfitted with MIRVs so their capacity would not be multiplied. Thus the US did not seem to have as much potential for MIRV usage as the Soviets. However, the US had a larger number of submarine-launched ballistic missiles , which could be outfitted with MIRVs, and helped offset

220-501: A fixed launch pad, not from the vehicle. Hwasong-14 The Hwasong-14 ( Korean :  《화성-14》형 ; Hanja :  火星 14型 ; lit.   Mars Type 14), also known under alternative US designation codename KN-20 , is a mobile intercontinental ballistic missile developed by North Korea . It had its maiden flight on 4 July 2017, which coincided with the United States' Independence Day . North Korea

264-530: A larger diameter warhead and reduces re-entry stress and heating at the cost of accuracy. Some analysts think it may be able to carry additional payloads such as decoys or even multiple warheads . The 9-axle Transporter erector launcher (TEL) vehicle is larger compared to the 8-axle TEL vehicle of the Hwasong-14 . However, just like the Hwasong-14, the launch footage indicates the missile was fired from

308-621: A miniaturized physics package and a lower mass re-entry vehicle, both of which are highly advanced technologies. As a result, single-warhead missiles are more attractive for nations with less advanced or less productive nuclear technology. The United States first deployed MRV warheads on the Polaris A-3 SLBM in 1964 on the USS Daniel Webster . The Polaris A-3 missile carried three warheads each having an approximate yield of 200 kilotonnes of TNT (840 TJ). This system

352-459: A new Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile , striking Dnipro . Analysts stated the missile used a multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV), likely marking their first use in combat. The night attack was reported to see six sequential vertical flashes, each comprising a cluster of up to six individual projectiles. Ukraine's air force initially claimed an intercontinental ballistic missile (range greater than 5,500 km)

396-489: A substantially reduced payload. Multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle#MRV A multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle ( MIRV ) is an exoatmospheric ballistic missile payload containing several warheads , each capable of being aimed to hit a different target. The concept is almost invariably associated with intercontinental ballistic missiles carrying thermonuclear warheads , even if not strictly being limited to them. An intermediate case

440-633: A total flight time of approximately 47 minutes. Based on the data from the test flight, if the missile were fired at the optimal efficient trajectory, it is predicted that the maximum effective range would exceed 10,000 km (6,200 mi). If factoring in the rotation of the Earth, which may provide a range boost when travelling eastward, the Hwasong-14’s coverage area would include the US West Coast, Chicago, and possibly even New York, but only with

484-626: Is believed to be capable of weaponizing. The missile is launched from a detachable platform on a concrete pad. This could have several operational ramifications. It may increase the time required to launch the Hwasong-12, and limit the number of launch locations to pre-sited and pre-constructed launch pads. Michael Elleman of IISS and the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists both claim that available evidence clearly indicates that

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528-409: Is crucial because doubling the accuracy decreases the needed warhead energy by a factor of four for radiation damage and by a factor of eight for blast damage. Navigation system accuracy and the available geophysical information limits the warhead target accuracy. Some writers believe that government-supported geophysical mapping initiatives and ocean satellite altitude systems such as Seasat may have

572-596: Is similar to the upper stages designed for the Iranian space launch vehicles". The first publicly announced flight test was on 4 July 2017, to coincide with the US Independence Day celebrations. This flight had a claimed range of 933 kilometres (580 miles) eastwards into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea) and reached an altitude of 2,802 kilometres (9,193,000 ft) during a 39-minute flight. This range

616-578: Is the multiple reentry vehicle (MRV) missile which carries several warheads which are dispersed but not individually aimed. All nuclear-weapon states except Pakistan and North Korea are currently confirmed to have deployed MIRV missile systems. The first true MIRV design was the Minuteman III , first successfully tested in 1968 and introduced into actual use in 1970. The Minuteman III held three smaller W62 warheads, with yields of about 170 kilotons of TNT (710 TJ) each in place of

660-594: Is the only known operator of this missile. The Hwasong-14 is likely a two-staged version of the Hwasong-12 first tested in May 2017. The second stage appears to have increased its range. The first stage engine appears very similar to the Hwasong-12. With a single liquid fuel engine, it has four Vernier thrusters for stability and guidance. A detailed analysis by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists claims that

704-462: The Caribbean , and the majority of Antarctica . The different densities of different casing materials and explosive mechanisms ( e.g. metallic-based conventional explosives tend to be several times heavier than a corresponding volume of organic explosives) make accurately estimating warhead payload based on images alone very difficult, if not impossible. Based on the limited information available,

748-621: The State Space Agency of Ukraine claimed that the rocket engine used during 28 July 2017 North Korea's missile test was RD-250 made at a Ukrainian factory, but solely for use in Tsyklon space rockets supplied to Russia. The space agency chief said that according to Ukrainian information, “Russia today has between 7 and 20” of the Tsyklon rockets...They have these engines, they have the documentation. They can supply these engines from

792-636: The 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in order to avoid a massive arms race . In June 2017 the United States finished converting its Minuteman III missiles back to using a single reentry vehicle system, as part of its obligations under the New START treaty. The military purpose of a MIRV is fourfold: MIRV land-based ICBMs were considered destabilizing because they tended to put a premium on striking first . The world's first MIRV—US Minuteman III missile of 1970—threatened to rapidly increase

836-415: The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists claimed the payload would need to be lighter at 300 kg (660 lb) to be able to reach Seattle. The July 2017 tests were conducted with a 200 kg (440 lb) reentry vehicle , giving the missile its maximum range of 10,400 km (6,500 mi), enough to reach New York City but not Washington D.C. , although such a payload is much lighter than North Korea

880-516: The Earth’s rotation. If true, then this brings the U.S. states of Alaska and Hawaii within the missile's range. Preparations for a second test flight were detected by US intelligence as early as 20 July. On 28 July, the missile was fired at 11:41 p.m local time, the first time which a night time launch was carried out. The missile was fired at a lofted trajectory with apogee of 3,700 km (2,300 mi), landing 998 km (620 mi) away with

924-626: The ICBM disadvantage. It is because of their first-strike capability that land-based MIRVs were banned under the START II agreement. START II was ratified by the Russian Duma on 14 April 2000, but Russia withdrew from the treaty in 2002 after the US withdrew from the ABM treaty . In a MIRV, the main rocket motor (or booster ) pushes a "bus" into a free-flight suborbital ballistic flight path. After

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968-501: The MRV cluster; this makes for an efficient area-attack weapon and makes interception by anti-ballistic missiles more challenging due to the number of warheads being deployed at once. Improved warhead designs allow smaller warheads for a given yield, while better electronics and guidance systems allow greater accuracy. As a result, MIRV technology has proven more attractive than MRV for advanced nations. Multiple-warhead missiles require both

1012-504: The RD-250 engine along with other evidence, suggests the transfers occurred in 2015–2017. Ukraine rejected this theory claiming it was "most likely provoked by Russian secret services to cover their own crimes." Other US experts have questioned whether the evidence for Elleman's theory is strong enough to back up his claims. Engine maker Yuzhnoye Design Office denied that the engines were supplied to North Korea by Ukraine. In August 2017

1056-611: The US's deployable nuclear arsenal and thus the possibility that it would have enough bombs to destroy virtually all of the Soviet Union's nuclear weapons and negate any significant retaliation. Later on the US feared the Soviet's MIRVs because Soviet missiles had a greater throw-weight and could thus put more warheads on each missile than the US could. For example, the US MIRVs might have increased their warhead per missile count by

1100-566: The Union of Concerned Scientists did conclude that equipping the missile with a normal-sized payload would likely reduce the overall range. It was the first launch after a 10-week break. According to a statement by Japanese Minister of Defence Itsunori Onodera , the missile's re-entry vehicle failed to successfully re-enter the Earth's atmosphere, breaking apart and crashing into waters within Japan 's exclusive economic zone . Later assessments from

1144-602: The Union of Concerned Scientists, however, raised questions as to whether the object Onodera described may have been the missile's detached first stage, not its re-entry vehicle. KCTV reported that the test was conducted on 18 February at Pyongyang International Airport under a sudden order by the Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Workers' Party of Korea which was issued at 8:00 AM on

1188-409: The United States phased out the use of MIRVs in ICBMs in 2014 to comply with New START , Russia continues to develop new ICBM designs using the technology. The introduction of MIRV led to a major change in the strategic balance. Previously, with one warhead per missile, it was conceivable that one could build a defense that used missiles to attack individual warheads. Any increase in missile fleet by

1232-426: The United States with the rocket tested on 3 July and 28 July. A first-generation North Korean nuclear missile warhead is estimated to weigh 500–600 kg (1,100–1,300 lb). Calculations of the range of the Hwasong-14 carrying such a payload vary from 6,000 km (3,700 mi), enough to reach Anchorage, to as much as 8,000 km (5,000 mi), enough to reach Honolulu, Hawaii and Seattle, Washington ;

1276-461: The assessment. According to international weapons analysts, the Hwasong-15 first stage has a gimbaled two-chambered main engine system, as opposed to the Hwasong-12 and Hwasong-14 which have one fixed main chamber and four gimbaled steering vernier thruster chambers. The second-stage engine for the Hwasong-15 was test-fired on June 23, 2017. According to missile specialist Norbert Brügge,

1320-547: The boost phase, the bus maneuvers using small on-board rocket motors and a computerized inertial guidance system . It takes up a ballistic trajectory that will deliver a re-entry vehicle containing a warhead to a target and then releases a warhead on that trajectory. It then maneuvers to a different trajectory, releasing another warhead, and repeats the process for all warheads. The precise technical details are closely guarded military secrets , to hinder any development of enemy counter-measures. The bus's on-board propellant limits

1364-417: The current variant of the Hwasong-14 may not even be capable of delivering a first-generation nuclear warhead to Anchorage, Alaska . But even if North Korea is now capable of fabricating a relatively light-weight, "miniaturized" atomic bomb that can survive the extreme reentry environments of long-range rocket delivery, it will, with certainty, not be able to deliver such an atomic bomb to the lower 48 states of

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1408-469: The distances between targets of individual warheads to perhaps a few hundred kilometers. Some warheads may use small hypersonic airfoils during the descent to gain additional cross-range distance. Additionally, some buses (e.g. the British Chevaline system) can release decoys to confuse interception devices and radars , such as aluminized balloons or electronic noisemakers. Accuracy

1452-452: The enemy could be countered by a similar increase in interceptors. With MIRV, a single new enemy missile meant that multiple interceptors would have to be built, meaning that it was much less expensive to increase the attack than the defense. This cost-exchange ratio was so heavily biased towards the attacker that the concept of mutual assured destruction became the leading concept in strategic planning and ABM systems were severely limited in

1496-573: The engine is based on the Soviet RD-250 family of engines for the R-36 missile, and has been modified to operate as the boosting force for the Hwasong-12 and -14. According to his theory an unknown number of these engines were probably acquired through illicit channels operating in Russia and/or Ukraine . North Korea’s need for an alternative to the failing Musudan and the recent appearance of

1540-641: The finished rockets to whoever they want.” The agency also claimed that a total of 223 Tsyklon-2 and Tsyklon-3 rockets were supplied to Russia. Furthermore, he stated that North Korea cannot produce the fuel for the RD-250 ( N 2 O 4 and UDMH ), and that it must have been produced either in China or in Ukraine. According to South Korean intelligence, North Korea received 20 to 40 RD-251 engines from Russia in 2016. Arms expert Jeffrey Lewis claimed that "The second stage of North Korea's Hwasong-14 missile

1584-420: The maximum estimate of payload from 150 kg to 1,000 kg (2,200 lb) at a range of 13,000 km. He noted major differences in the design of the actual Hwasong-15 and the missile he visualized the day before, from the dimensions to two nozzles/engine instead of one, such as on the Hwasong-14. Analysts have noted that the re-entry vehicle has a blunter nose than previous designs, which can accommodate

1628-420: The missile uses the ‘Paektusan, 백두산’, the first stage of the two-stage missile uses an RD-250 clone liquid propulsion system developed by Pyongyang, comprising two combustors fed by common turbopump to increase takeoff thrust. The new propulsion is estimated to have 170 percent increase in thrust, compared to the Hwasong-14. On November 29, 2017, Michael Elleman wrote for 38 North that at 13,000 km,

1672-557: The missile would have a range of more than 13,000 km (8,100 miles) – more than enough to reach Washington D.C. and the rest of the United States, albeit, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists , probably with a reduced payload. Several important US allies, including the United Kingdom , France and Australia , also lie within the missile's theoretical range, which covers most of Earth's land masses except South America ,

1716-403: The payload would be around 150 kg (330 lb), based on flight data of the test and conjectured it was a reconfigured Hwasong-14 and on November 30, after release of the images and video of launch, he wrote a subsequent article on 38th North in which he stated that he first visualized the design of the missile based solely on flight data. After seeing the images and video, Elleman increased

1760-431: The same day. Also, the test was conducted by 1st red flag hero company affiliated with Missile General Bureau which has rich launching experience among the units operating ICBMs. It was reported that the missile traveled up to a maximum altitude of 5,768.5 km and flew 989 km for nearly 67 minutes before striking at its target in open waters of the Sea of Japan . The country rated this test as "Excellent" in

1804-603: The single 1.2 megatons of TNT (5.0 PJ) W56 used on the Minuteman II. From 1970 to 1975, the United States would remove approximately 550 earlier versions of the Minuteman ICBM in the Strategic Air Command 's (SAC) arsenal and replace them with the new Minuteman IIIs outfitted with a MIRV payload, increasing their overall effectiveness. The smaller power of the warheads used (W62, W78 and W87)

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1848-799: Was also used by the Royal Navy who also retained MRV with the Chevaline upgrade, though the number of warheads in Chevaline was reduced to two due to the ABM counter-measures carried. The Soviet Union deployed 3 MRVs on the R-27U SLBM and 3 MRVs on the R-36P ICBM. Refer to atmospheric re-entry for more details. On November 21, 2024, as part of the Russian invasion of Ukraine , Russia launched

1892-490: Was deliberately shortened, to avoid encroaching on other nations' territory, by 'lofting' the missile: firing it on a trajectory that was inefficiently high, rather than optimised for range. This allows the missile's performance to be tested and demonstrated, without requiring a huge test range. A prediction for the possible range, following an optimum trajectory, has been given at 6,700 kilometres (4,200 miles) or as much as 10,400 kilometres (6,500 miles) not taking into account

1936-527: Was offset by increasing the accuracy of the system, allowing it to attack the same hard targets as the larger, less accurate, W56. The MMIII was introduced specifically to address the Soviet construction of an anti-ballistic missile (ABM) system around Moscow; MIRV allowed the US to overwhelm any conceivable ABM system without increasing the size of their own missile fleet. The Soviets responded by adding MIRV to their R-36 design, first with three warheads in 1975, and eventually up to ten in later versions. While

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