An opinion poll , often simply referred to as a survey or a poll (although strictly a poll is an actual election), is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample . Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence intervals . A person who conducts polls is referred to as a pollster .
159-399: Frank Ian Luntz (born February 23, 1962) is an American political and communications consultant and pollster , best known for developing talking points and other messaging for Republican causes . His work has included assistance with messaging for Newt Gingrich 's Contract with America and public relations support for The Israel Project . He advocated use of vocabulary crafted to produce
318-441: A margin of error – usually defined as the radius of a 95% confidence interval for a particular statistic. One example is the percent of people who prefer product A versus product B. When a single, global margin of error is reported for a survey, it refers to the maximum margin of error for all reported percentages using the full sample from the survey. If the statistic is a percentage, this maximum margin of error can be calculated as
477-560: A "less frightening" phrase than the former. Luntz is the author of the 2007 New York Times Best Seller, "Words That Work: It's Not What You Say, It's What People Hear." His second book, "What Americans Really Want ... Really: The Truth About Our Hopes, Dreams and Fears," climbed to #6 on the New York Times Business Best Sellers list. In March 2011, Luntz released his book,"Win: The Key Principles to Take Your Business From Ordinary to Extraordinary". Luntz
636-703: A $ 100 million mortgage on Trump Tower (refinanced in 2022) and the liquidation of over $ 200 million in stocks and bonds. He personally guaranteed $ 421 million in debt, most of which is due by 2024. As of October 2021 , Trump had over $ 1.3 billion in debts, much of which was secured by his assets. In 2020, he owed $ 640 million to banks and trust organizations, including Bank of China , Deutsche Bank , and UBS , and approximately $ 450 million to unknown creditors. The value of his assets exceeds his debt. Trump has produced 19 books under his name. At least some of them have been written or co-written by ghostwriters . His first book, The Art of
795-744: A $ 70 million bank construction loan. The hotel reopened in 1980 as the Grand Hyatt Hotel , and that same year, he obtained rights to develop Trump Tower , a mixed-use skyscraper in Midtown Manhattan. The building houses the headquarters of the Trump Corporation and Trump's PAC and was his primary residence until 2019. In 1988, Trump acquired the Plaza Hotel with a loan from a consortium of sixteen banks. The hotel filed for bankruptcy protection in 1992, and
954-573: A 'tax on death'? Luntz shared his findings with Republicans and included the phrase in the GOP's Contract with America. Luntz went so far as to recommend in a memo to GOP lawmakers that they stage press conferences 'at your local mortuary' to dramatize the issue. 'I believe this backdrop will clearly resonate with your constituents,' he wrote. 'Death is something the American people understand.' Apparently, he's right. Spurred by Luntz, Republicans have employed
1113-466: A 20 percent share, formed All County Building Supply & Maintenance Corp. The company had no offices and is alleged to have been a shell company for paying the vendors providing services and supplies for Trump's rental units, then billing those services and supplies to Trump Management with markups of 20–50 percent and more. The owners shared the proceeds generated by the markups. The increased costs were used to get state approval for increasing
1272-489: A 28-page memo. 'They both lead to dictators and a loss of freedom. ' " In an editorial response, the Wall Street Journal wrote that "PolitiFact's decree is part of a larger journalistic trend that seeks to recast all political debates as matters of lies, misinformation and 'facts,' rather than differences of world view or principles." The editors of PolitiFact announced "We have concluded it is inaccurate to call
1431-495: A candidate." He is also an author of business books dealing with communication strategies and public opinion. Luntz was born and grew up in West Hartford, Connecticut , the son of Phyllys ( née Kelmenson ) and Lester Luntz, who together wrote the first American forensic dentistry textbook. His family is Jewish. He graduated from Hall High School , earned a bachelor of arts degree in history and political science from
1590-735: A company that sold real estate seminars for up to $ 35,000. After New York State authorities notified the company that its use of "university" violated state law (as it was not an academic institution), its name was changed to the Trump Entrepreneur Initiative in 2010. In 2013, the State of New York filed a $ 40 million civil suit against Trump University, alleging that the company made false statements and defrauded consumers. Additionally, two class actions were filed in federal court against Trump and his companies. Internal documents revealed that employees were instructed to use
1749-515: A decision not to use focus groups as part of our debate coverage. This decision had nothing to do with Frank's past work or politics." Luntz disagreed, believing that MSNBC "buckled to political pressure" from activist David Brock . Luntz was awarded the 2010 PolitiFact Lie of the Year award for his promotion of the phrase 'government takeover' to refer to healthcare reform , starting in the spring of 2009. " 'Takeovers are like coups,' Luntz wrote in
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#17327878066711908-560: A degree unprecedented in American politics. After his first term, scholars and historians ranked him as one of the worst presidents in American history. He lost the 2020 presidential election , but did not concede, falsely claiming widespread electoral fraud and attempting to overturn the results , including his involvement in the January ;6 Capitol attack . In 2024, he was found guilty of falsifying business records , making him
2067-526: A desired effect, including use of the term death tax instead of estate tax , and climate change instead of global warming . Luntz has historically frequently contributed to Fox News and CBS News (and since 2021 on CNN) as a commentator and analyst, as well as running focus groups during and after presidential debates on Fox News and CBS News . Luntz describes his specialty as "testing language and finding words that will help his clients sell their product or turn public opinion on an issue or
2226-523: A few others. He's trying to find a legitimate, long-term effective solution to immigration that isn't the traditional Republican approach, and talk radio is killing him. That's what's causing this thing underneath. And too many politicians in Washington are playing coy. After the leak, Luntz announced that he would no longer fund a scholarship to the University of Pennsylvania. The scholarship, which
2385-489: A fixed number of the most recent periods, for example the past five days. In this example, the next calculated results will use data for five days counting backwards from the next day, namely the same data as before, but with the data from the next day included, and without the data from the sixth day before that day. However, these polls are sometimes subject to dramatic fluctuations, and so political campaigns and candidates are cautious in analyzing their results. An example of
2544-412: A hard-sell approach, and former employees testified that Trump University had defrauded or lied to its students. Shortly after he won the 2016 presidential election, he agreed to pay a total of $ 25 million to settle the three cases. The Donald J. Trump Foundation was a private foundation established in 1988. From 1987 to 2006, Trump gave his foundation $ 5.4 million which had been spent by
2703-402: A history of belittling women when speaking to the media and on social media. He made lewd comments, disparaged women's physical appearances, and referred to them using derogatory epithets. At least 25 women publicly accused him of sexual misconduct , including rape, kissing without consent, groping, looking under women's skirts, and walking in on naked teenage pageant contestants. He has denied
2862-600: A hotel and casino, with financing and management help from the Holiday Corporation . It was unprofitable, and he paid Holiday $ 70 million in May 1986 to take sole control. In 1985, he bought the unopened Atlantic City Hilton Hotel and renamed it Trump Castle . Both casinos filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 1992. Trump bought a third Atlantic City venue in 1988, the Trump Taj Mahal . It
3021-471: A huge role in the supplying of news: 62 percent of US adults get news on social media. This fact makes the issue of fake news on social media more pertinent. Other evidence shows that the most popular fake news stories were more widely shared on Facebook than the most popular mainstream news stories; many people who see fake news stories report that they believe them; and the most discussed fake news stories tended to favor Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton. As
3180-445: A larger sample, however if a pollster wishes to reduce the margin of error to 1% they would need a sample of around 10,000 people. In practice, pollsters need to balance the cost of a large sample against the reduction in sampling error and a sample size of around 500–1,000 is a typical compromise for political polls. (To get complete responses it may be necessary to include thousands of additional participators.) Another way to reduce
3339-744: A leading role in the ideological mobilization of the American people in fighting the Nazis and the Japanese in World War II. As part of that effort, they redefined the "American Way of Life" in terms of a commitment to free enterprise. "Advertisers", Lears concludes, "played a crucial hegemonic role in creating the consumer culture that dominated post-World War II American society." Opinion polls for many years were maintained through telecommunications or in person-to-person contact. Methods and techniques vary, though they are widely accepted in most areas. Over
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#17327878066713498-597: A line for them to create language for me. In a 2007 interview on Fresh Air with Terry Gross , Luntz argued that the term " Orwellian " could be considered in a positive sense, saying that if one reads George Orwell 's essay Politics and the English Language , "To be 'Orwellian' is to speak with absolute clarity, to be succinct, to explain what the event is, to talk about what triggers something happening… and to do so without any pejorative whatsoever." Luntz suggested that Orwell would not have approved of many of
3657-444: A long-term perspective, advertising had come under heavy pressure in the early 1930s. The Great Depression forced businesses to drastically cut back on their advertising spending. Layoffs and reductions were common at all agencies. The New Deal furthermore aggressively promoted consumerism, and minimized the value of (or need for) advertising. Historian Jackson Lears argues that "By the late 1930s, though, corporate advertisers had begun
3816-710: A majority in the House of Representatives in the 2014 mid-term elections. As part of his critique Luntz said: And they get great ratings, and they drive the message, and it's really problematic. And this is not on the Democratic side. It's only on the Republican side. ... [Democrats have] got every other source of news on their side. And so that is a lot of what's driving it. If you take—Marco Rubio's getting his ass kicked. Who's my Rubio fan here? We talked about it. He's getting destroyed! By Mark Levin, by Rush Limbaugh, and
3975-526: A person who is described by the surveyor as one of the "leading candidates". This description is "leading" as it indicates a subtle bias for that candidate, since it implies that the others in the race are not serious contenders. Additionally, leading questions often contain, or lack, certain facts that can sway a respondent's answer. Argumentative Questions can also impact the outcome of a survey. These types of questions, depending on their nature, either positive or negative, influence respondents' answers to reflect
4134-456: A primary issue in the debate, and defer to scientists and other experts in the field." In 2010, Luntz announced new research that shows the American people are eager for Congress to act on climate legislation that would promote US energy independence and a healthier environment. "Americans want their leaders to act on climate change—but not necessarily for the reasons you think," Luntz said. "A clear majority of Americans believe climate change
4293-463: A question, with each version presented to half the respondents. The most effective controls, used by attitude researchers, are: These controls are not widely used in the polling industry. . However, as it is important that questions to test the product have a high quality, survey methodologists work on methods to test them. Empirical tests provide insight into the quality of the questionnaire, some may be more complex than others. For instance, testing
4452-407: A questionnaire can be done by: One of the criticisms of opinion polls is that societal assumptions that opinions between which there is no logical link are "correlated attitudes" can push people with one opinion into a group that forces them to pretend to have a supposedly linked but actually unrelated opinion. That, in turn, may cause people who have the first opinion to claim on polls that they have
4611-482: A reorganization plan was approved a month later, with the banks taking control of the property. In 1995, he defaulted on over $ 3 billion of bank loans, and the lenders seized the Plaza Hotel along with most of his other properties in a "vast and humiliating restructuring" that allowed him to avoid personal bankruptcy. The lead bank's attorney said of the banks' decision that they "all agreed that he'd be better alive than dead". In 1996, Trump acquired and renovated
4770-603: A result of these facts, some have concluded that if not for these stories, Donald Trump may not have won the election over Hillary Clinton. By providing information about voting intentions, opinion polls can sometimes influence the behavior of electors, and in his book The Broken Compass , Peter Hitchens asserts that opinion polls are actually a device for influencing public opinion. The various theories about how this happens can be split into two groups: bandwagon/underdog effects, and strategic ("tactical") voting. Donald Trump Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946)
4929-474: A review of state and federal court files conducted by USA Today in 2018, Trump and his businesses had been involved in more than 4,000 state and federal legal actions. While he has not filed for personal bankruptcy , his over-leveraged hotel and casino businesses in Atlantic City and New York filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection six times between 1991 and 2009. They continued to operate while
Frank Luntz - Misplaced Pages Continue
5088-427: A sample is drawn from a large panel of volunteers, and the results are weighted to reflect the demographics of the population of interest. In contrast, popular web polls draw on whoever wishes to participate rather than a scientific sample of the population, and are therefore not generally considered professional. Statistical learning methods have been proposed in order to exploit social media content (such as posts on
5247-685: A scholarship established in 1960 by Sir John R.H. Thouron and Esther du Pont Thouron to strengthen the "special relationship" between the United States and the United Kingdom through educational exchange between British universities and the University of Pennsylvania . Luntz has appeared as a consultant or panel member on a number of television news shows, including The Colbert Report , Capital Gang , Good Morning America , Hannity , Hardball with Chris Matthews , Meet
5406-415: A significant problem if a poll is conducted too early for anyone to know about the potential candidate. A benchmark poll needs to be undertaken when voters are starting to learn more about the possible candidate running for office. A benchmark poll serves a number of purposes for a campaign. First, it gives the candidate a picture of where they stand with the electorate before any campaigning takes place. If
5565-409: A successful counterattack against their critics." They rehabilitated the concept of consumer sovereignty by inventing scientific public opinion polls, and making it the centerpiece of their own market research, as well as the key to understanding politics. George Gallup, the vice president of Young and Rubicam, and numerous other advertising experts, led the way. Moving into the 1940s, the industry played
5724-479: A tracking poll that generated controversy over its accuracy, is one conducted during the 2000 U.S. presidential election, by the Gallup Organization . The results for one day showed Democratic candidate Al Gore with an eleven-point lead over Republican candidate George W. Bush . Then, a subsequent poll conducted just two days later showed Bush ahead of Gore by seven points. It was soon determined that
5883-696: A travel ban targeting Muslims and refugees, funded the Trump wall expanding the U.S.–Mexico border wall, and implemented a family separation policy at that border. He rolled back more than 100 environmental policies and regulations, signed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, and appointed three justices to the Supreme Court. He initiated a trade war with China, withdrew the U.S. from several international agreements, and met with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un without progress on denuclearization. In response to
6042-419: A white woman in the 1989 Central Park jogger case , even after they were exonerated in 2002 when the actual rapist confessed and his DNA matched the evidence. In October 2024, the men sued Trump for defamation after he said in a televised September debate that they had committed the crime and killed the woman. In 2011, when he was reportedly considering a presidential run, Trump became the leading proponent of
6201-703: A wildfire, the Skirball Fire , threatened and forced him to evacuate his home in 2017. In 2005, Luntz conducted a focus group broadcast on the Conservative leadership race on the BBC current affairs show Newsnight . The focus group's overwhelmingly positive reaction to David Cameron was seen by many as crucial in making him the favorite in a crowded field. Cameron was the eventual victor. In March 2007, Newsnight invited him back to gauge comparative opinions on Cameron, Gordon Brown and Sir Menzies Campbell in
6360-500: Is a more appropriate way to communicate." He went on to say, "if the public says after looking at the pictures, that doesn't look like my definition of drilling—it looks like my definition of exploring—then don't you think we should be calling it what people see it to be, rather than adding a political aspect to it all?" Terry Gross responded, "Should we be calling it what it actually is, as opposed to what somebody thinks it might be? The difference between exploration and actually getting out
6519-497: Is a popular medium for the candidates to campaign and for gauging the public reaction to the campaigns. Social media can also be used as an indicator of the voter opinion regarding the poll. Some research studies have shown that predictions made using social media signals can match traditional opinion polls. Regarding the 2016 U.S. presidential election , a major concern has been that of the effect of false stories spread throughout social media . Evidence shows that social media plays
Frank Luntz - Misplaced Pages Continue
6678-550: Is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021. He won the 2024 presidential election as the nominee of the Republican Party and will be inaugurated as the 47th president on January 20, 2025. Trump graduated with a bachelor's degree in economics from the University of Pennsylvania in 1968. After becoming president of
6837-419: Is closing [against us] ... but not yet closed. There is still a window of opportunity to challenge the science. ... Voters believe that there is no consensus about global warming within the scientific community . Should the public come to believe that the scientific issues are settled, their views about global warming will change accordingly. Therefore, you need to continue to make the lack of scientific certainty
6996-526: Is depleted by exercise. In 2015, his campaign released a letter from his longtime personal physician, Harold Bornstein , stating that he would "be the healthiest individual ever elected to the presidency". In 2018, Bornstein said Trump had dictated the contents of the letter and that three of Trump's agents had seized his medical records in a February 2017 raid on Bornstein’s office. Many of Trump's comments and actions have been described as racist . In national polling, about half of respondents said that he
7155-433: Is happening. This is true of McCain voters and Obama voters alike. And even those that don't still believe it is essential for America to pursue policies that promote energy independence and a cleaner, healthier environment." In reference to recent political events, Luntz added: "People are much more interested in seeing solutions than watching yet another partisan political argument." On July 25, 2019, Luntz spoke in front of
7314-517: Is much more effective than traditional public opinion polling. Unlike traditional public polling, deliberative opinion polls measure what the public believes about issues after being offered information and the ability to discuss them with other voters. Since voters generally do not actively research various issues, they often base their opinions on these issues on what the media and candidates say about them. Scholars argued that these polls can truly reflect voters' feelings about an issue once they are given
7473-574: Is not responsible for what the Bush administration did after that time. Though he now believes humans have contributed to global warming , he maintains that the science was in fact incomplete, and his recommendation sound, at the time he made it. In a 2002 memo to President George W. Bush titled "The Environment: A Cleaner, Safer, Healthier America", obtained by the Environmental Working Group , Luntz wrote: "The scientific debate
7632-485: Is often referred to as the Bradley effect . If the results of surveys are widely publicized this effect may be magnified – a phenomenon commonly referred to as the spiral of silence . Use of the plurality voting system (select only one candidate) in a poll puts an unintentional bias into the poll, since people who favor more than one candidate cannot indicate this. The fact that they must choose only one candidate biases
7791-491: Is probability sampling and statistical theory that enable one to determine sampling error, confidence levels, and the like and to generalize from the results of the sample to the broader population from which it was selected. Other factors also come into play in making a survey scientific. One must select a sample of sufficient size. If the sampling error is too large or the level of confidence too low, it will be difficult to make reasonably precise statements about characteristics of
7950-440: Is racist; a greater proportion believed that he emboldened racists. Several studies and surveys found that racist attitudes fueled his political ascent and were more important than economic factors in determining the allegiance of Trump voters. Racist and Islamophobic attitudes are a powerful indicator of support for Trump. He has also been accused of racism for insisting a group of black and Latino teenagers were guilty of raping
8109-416: Is responsible for the life-threatening health consequences he has endured. Luntz frequently tests word and phrase choices using focus groups and interviews. His stated purpose in this is the goal of causing audiences to react based on emotion: "80 percent of our life is emotion, and only 20 percent is intellect. I am much more interested in how you feel than how you think. ... If I respond to you quietly,
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#17327878066718268-536: Is some sort of 'right way'—'right' as in 'correct'—to think. Resulting in some conservatives who suffer from what might be called a political version of Stockholm Syndrome—where the captives identify with their captors. The article was a response to an April 22, 2013 leaked recording of Luntz at the University of Pennsylvania , where he said conservative radio personalities (specifically Rush Limbaugh and Mark Levin ) were being "problematic" and "destroying" Republicans' ability to connect with more voters, or even maintain
8427-401: Is subject to controversy. Deliberative Opinion Polls combine the aspects of a public opinion poll and a focus group. These polls bring a group of voters and provide information about specific issues. They are then allowed to discuss those issues with the other voters. Once they know more about the issues, they are polled afterward on their thoughts. Many scholars argue that this type of polling
8586-422: Is that an estimate of a trend is subject to a larger error than an estimate of a level. This is because if one estimates the change, the difference between two numbers X and Y, then one has to contend with errors in both X and Y . A rough guide is that if the change in measurement falls outside the margin of error it is worth attention. Since some people do not answer calls from strangers, or refuse to answer
8745-651: The Trump Princess , which had been leased to his casinos and kept docked; and other businesses. In 1995, Trump founded Trump Hotels & Casino Resorts (THCR), which assumed ownership of the Trump Plaza. THCR purchased the Taj Mahal and the Trump Castle in 1996 and went bankrupt in 2004 and 2009, leaving him with 10 percent ownership. He remained chairman until 2009. In 1985, Trump acquired
8904-532: The 1945 general election : virtually all other commentators had expected a victory for the Conservative Party , led by wartime leader Winston Churchill . The Allied occupation powers helped to create survey institutes in all of the Western occupation zones of Germany in 1947 and 1948 to better steer denazification . By the 1950s, various types of polling had spread to most democracies. Viewed from
9063-494: The 1993 general election predicted the governing National Party would increase its majority. However, the preliminary results on election night showed a hung parliament with National one seat short of a majority, leading to Prime Minister Jim Bolger exclaiming "bugger the pollsters" on live national television. The official count saw National gain Waitaki to hold a one-seat majority and retain government. Social media today
9222-493: The Bush administration policy, it was his idea that administration communications reframe global warming as climate change since "climate change" was thought to sound less severe. The term "climate change" was not altogether new, as in 1956, the physicist Gilbert Plass published a seminal study called "The Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climatic Change", and in 1978 the journal Climatic Change debuted. Luntz has since said that he
9381-631: The College Board with legal action if they released his academic records. In 1977, Trump married the Czech model Ivana Zelníčková . They had three children: Donald Jr. (1977–), Ivanka (1981–), and Eric (1984–). The couple divorced in 1990, following his affair with the actress Marla Maples . He and Maples married in 1993 and divorced in 1999. They have one daughter, Tiffany (1993–), whom Maples raised in California. In 2005, he married
9540-537: The Eastern Air Lines Shuttle , financing the purchase with $ 380 million (equivalent to $ 979 million in 2023) in loans from a syndicate of 22 banks. He renamed the airline Trump Shuttle and operated it until 1992. He defaulted on his loans in 1991, and ownership passed to the banks. In 1992, Trump, his siblings Maryanne , Elizabeth, and Robert , and his cousin John W. Walter, each with
9699-560: The Institut Français d'Opinion Publique , as the first European survey institute in Paris. Stoetzel started political polls in summer 1939 with the question " Why die for Danzig? ", looking for popular support or dissent with this question asked by appeasement politician and future collaborationist Marcel Déat . Gallup launched a subsidiary in the United Kingdom that was almost alone in correctly predicting Labour's victory in
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#17327878066719858-568: The Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida. In 1995, he converted the estate into a private club with an initiation fee and annual dues. He continued to use a wing of the house as a private residence. He declared the club his primary residence in 2019. The Trump Organization began building and buying golf courses in 1999. It owns fourteen and manages another three Trump-branded courses worldwide. The Trump Organization has licensed
10017-560: The Nazi extermination of the Jews never happened?" The confusing wording of this question led to inaccurate results which indicated that 22 percent of respondents believed it seemed possible the Holocaust might not have ever happened. When the question was reworded, significantly fewer respondents (only 1 percent) expressed that same sentiment. Thus comparisons between polls often boil down to
10176-773: The New Jersey Generals , a team in the United States Football League . After the 1985 season, the league folded, largely due to his attempt to move to a fall schedule (when it would have competed with the NFL for audience) and trying to force a merger with the NFL by bringing an antitrust suit. Trump and his Plaza Hotel hosted several boxing matches at the Atlantic City Convention Hall . In 1989 and 1990, he lent his name to
10335-749: The New York State Department of Taxation and Finance started an investigation. His investments underperformed the stock and New York property markets. Forbes estimated in October 2018 that his net worth declined from $ 4.5 billion in 2015 to $ 3.1 billion in 2017 and his product-licensing income from $ 23 million to $ 3 million. Trump's tax returns from 1985 to 1994 show net losses totaling $ 1.17 billion. The losses were higher than those of almost every other American taxpayer. The losses in 1990 and 1991, more than $ 250 million each year, were more than double those of
10494-709: The Plaza Hotel in Manhattan, the casinos in Atlantic City, New Jersey , and the Trump Hotels & Casino Resorts company. Trump attracted public attention in 1978 with the launch of his family's first Manhattan venture, the renovation of the derelict Commodore Hotel , adjacent to Grand Central Terminal. The financing was facilitated by a $ 400 million city property tax abatement arranged for him by his father who also, jointly with Hyatt , guaranteed
10653-492: The Reform Party , in 1999; a Democrat in 2001; a Republican in 2009; unaffiliated in 2011; and a Republican in 2012. In 1987, Trump placed full-page advertisements in three major newspapers, expressing his views on foreign policy and how to eliminate the federal budget deficit. In 1988, he approached Lee Atwater , asking to be put into consideration to be Republican nominee George H. W. Bush 's running mate. Bush found
10812-744: The Tour de Trump cycling stage race, an attempt to create an American equivalent of European races such as the Tour de France or the Giro d'Italia . From 1986 to 1988, Trump purchased significant blocks of shares in various public companies while suggesting that he intended to take over the company and then sold his shares for a profit, leading some observers to think he was engaged in greenmail . The New York Times found that he initially made millions of dollars in such stock transactions, but "lost most, if not all, of those gains after investors stopped taking his takeover talk seriously". In 1988, Trump purchased
10971-431: The United States was the prediction that Thomas Dewey would defeat Harry S. Truman in the 1948 US presidential election . Major polling organizations, including Gallup and Roper, had indicated that Dewey would defeat Truman in a landslide; Truman won a narrow victory. There were also substantial polling errors in the presidential elections of 1952, 1980, 1996, 2000, and 2016: while the first three correctly predicted
11130-668: The United States House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis where he shared his advice to people pushing for action on the climate crisis. Furthermore, he stated that "I'm here before you to say that I was wrong in 2001", "That was a lifetime ago", and "I've changed." He promised to help the Democrats on the climate committee, provided that they put "policies ahead of politics" and commit to nonpartisan solutions. He had his change of heart after
11289-418: The University of Pennsylvania , and received a doctorate in politics from Trinity College, Oxford where he was a contemporary of future British Prime Minister Boris Johnson . Luntz's doctoral thesis formed the basis for his first book, Candidates, Consultants, and Campaigns: The Style and Substance of American Electioneering . published in 1988. Luntz's studies at Oxford were funded by The Thouron Award ,
11448-486: The 1982, 1983, and 1984 rankings. Trump has often said he began his career with "a small loan of a million dollars" from his father and that he had to pay it back with interest. He was a millionaire by age eight, borrowed at least $ 60 million from his father, largely failed to repay those loans, and received another $ 413 million (2018 dollars adjusted for inflation) from his father's company. In 2018, he and his family were reported to have committed tax fraud, and
11607-456: The 2016 New York primary, where a news organization reports misleading primary results. Government officials argue that since many Americans believe in exit polls more, election results are likely to make voters not think they are impacted electorally and be more doubtful about the credibility of news organizations. Over time, a number of theories and mechanisms have been offered to explain erroneous polling results. Some of these reflect errors on
11766-486: The 2016 U.S. primaries, CNN reported that the Democratic primary in New York was too close to call, and they made this judgment based on exit polls. However, the vote count revealed that these exit polls were misleading, and Hillary Clinton was far ahead of Bernie Sanders in the popular vote, winning the state by 58% to 42% margin. The overreliance on exit polling leads to the second point of how it undermines public trust in
11925-504: The 2022 midterms, the GOP will have between 233–240 House seats – outdoing their total from 1994. Republicans also will take control of the Senate, but that won’t be clear until Friday. Top issues for 2022 voters: 1. The economy 2. Inflation and rising prices 3. Crime... 6. Abortion... 10. Donald Trump. This year, Democrats ran on abortion and Trump while ignoring Americans' growing economic hardship." Instead, Republicans narrowly won control of
12084-494: The BBC's Daily Politics . Luntz predicted that the next election in 2015 would result in a hung parliament (it ultimately produced a Conservative majority government). In 2012, Luntz conducted a poll that found that sizable majorities of gun owners supported gun control measures such as mandatory criminal background checks, minimum age restrictions, and eligibility requirements for concealed weapon permits. In November 2011, during
12243-637: The COVID-19 pandemic , Trump signed the CARES Act on March 27, 2020. He was impeached in 2019 for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress, and in 2021 for incitement of insurrection; the Senate acquitted him in both cases. Trump's politics and rhetoric led to the creation of Trumpism . Many of his comments and actions have been characterized as racially charged, racist, and misogynistic. He promoted conspiracy theories and made many false and misleading statements during his campaigns and presidency, to
12402-463: The Conservatives neck and neck, when the actual result was a clear Conservative majority. On the other hand, in 2017 , the opposite appears to have occurred. Most polls predicted an increased Conservative majority, even though in reality the election resulted in a hung parliament with a Conservative plurality: some polls correctly predicted this outcome. In New Zealand, the polls leading up to
12561-589: The Deal (1987), was a New York Times Best Seller . While he was credited as co-author, the entire book was written by Tony Schwartz . According to The New Yorker , the book made Trump famous as an "emblem of the successful tycoon". Trump had cameos in many films and television shows from 1985 to 2001. Starting in the 1990s, Trump was a guest about 24 times on the nationally syndicated Howard Stern Show . He had his own short-form talk radio program called Trumped! from 2004 to 2008. From 2011 until 2015, he
12720-587: The House, but failed to win control of the Senate. In 1997, the American Association for Public Opinion Research , of which Luntz was not a member, criticized Luntz for refusing to release poll data to support his claimed results "because of client confidentiality". Diane Colasanto, who was president of the AAPOR at the time, said It is simply wanting to know, How many people did you question? What were
12879-464: The New York attorney general determined the foundation to be in violation of state law, for soliciting donations without submitting to required annual external audits, and ordered it to cease its fundraising activities in New York immediately. Trump's team announced in December 2016 that the foundation would be dissolved. In June 2018, the New York attorney general's office filed a civil suit against
13038-569: The Pew Research Center in the US, in 2007, concluded that "cell-only respondents are different from landline respondents in important ways, (but) they were neither numerous enough nor different enough on the questions we examined to produce a significant change in overall general population survey estimates when included with the landline samples and weighted according to US Census parameters on basic demographic characteristics." This issue
13197-487: The Press , PBS NewsHour , Nightline , The O'Reilly Factor , Real Time with Bill Maher , and The Today Show . He has written op-eds for publications such as The Financial Times , The Los Angeles Times , The New York Times , The Wall Street Journal , and The Washington Post . In addition to his work in the United States, Luntz also provides analysis for British news programmes such as Newsnight . He
13356-415: The Republican Party were, to which he responded, "You know, I don’t have a history of dodging questions. But I don’t know how to answer that. There is no consistent philosophy. You can’t say it’s about making America great again at a time of Covid and economic distress and social unrest . It’s just not credible." On election day in 2022, Nov. 8, Luntz tweeted his prediction: "When the dust settles from
13515-477: The Slovenian model Melania Knauss . They have one son, Barron (2006–). Trump says he has never drunk alcohol, smoked cigarettes, or used drugs. He sleeps about four or five hours a night. He has called golfing his "primary form of exercise", but usually does not walk the course. He considers exercise a waste of energy because he believes the body is "like a battery, with a finite amount of energy", which
13674-479: The Trump name for consumer products and services, including foodstuffs, apparel, learning courses, and home furnishings. According to The Washington Post , there are more than 50 licensing or management deals involving his name, and they have generated at least $ 59 million in revenue for his companies. By 2018, only two consumer goods companies continued to license his name. In September 1983, Trump purchased
13833-489: The United States (because the phone's owner may be charged for taking a call ), these individuals are typically excluded from polling samples. There is concern that, if the subset of the population without cell phones differs markedly from the rest of the population, these differences can skew the results of the poll. Polling organizations have developed many weighting techniques to help overcome these deficiencies, with varying degrees of success. Studies of mobile phone users by
13992-422: The actual sample is a biased version of the universe the pollster wants to analyze. In these cases, bias introduces new errors, one way or the other, that are in addition to errors caused by sample size. Error due to bias does not become smaller with larger sample sizes, because taking a larger sample size simply repeats the same mistake on a larger scale. If the people who refuse to answer, or are never reached, have
14151-399: The allegations. In October 2016, a 2005 " hot mic " recording surfaced in which Trump bragged about kissing and groping women without their consent, saying that "when you're a star, they let you do it. You can do anything. ... Grab 'em by the pussy ." The incident's widespread media exposure led to Trump's first public apology during his 2016 presidential campaign and caused outrage across
14310-449: The answers given by respondents do not reflect their true beliefs. This may be deliberately engineered by unscrupulous pollsters in order to generate a certain result or please their clients, but more often is a result of the detailed wording or ordering of questions (see below). Respondents may deliberately try to manipulate the outcome of a poll by e.g. advocating a more extreme position than they actually hold in order to boost their side of
14469-424: The argument or give rapid and ill-considered answers in order to hasten the end of their questioning. Respondents may also feel under social pressure not to give an unpopular answer. For example, respondents might be unwilling to admit to unpopular attitudes like racism or sexism , and thus polls might not reflect the true incidence of these attitudes in the population. In American political parlance, this phenomenon
14628-584: The assumption that opinion polls show actual links between opinions is considered important. Another source of error is the use of samples that are not representative of the population as a consequence of the methodology used, as was the experience of The Literary Digest in 1936. For example, telephone sampling has a built-in error because in many times and places, those with telephones have generally been richer than those without. In some places many people have only mobile telephones . Because pollsters cannot use automated dialing machines to call mobile phones in
14787-417: The banks restructured debt and reduced his shares in the properties. During the 1980s, more than 70 banks had lent Trump $ 4 billion. After his corporate bankruptcies of the early 1990s, most major banks, with the exception of Deutsche Bank, declined to lend to him. After the January 6 Capitol attack , the bank decided not to do business with him or his company in the future. In 1982, Trump made
14946-445: The breakdown of the US population by party identification has not changed since the previous presidential election, you may underestimate a victory or a defeat of a particular party candidate that saw a surge or decline in its party registration relative to the previous presidential election cycle. Sample Techniques are also used and recommended to reduce sample errors and errors of margin. In chapter four of author Herb Asher he says,"it
15105-425: The campaign know which voters are persuadable so they can spend their limited resources in the most effective manner. Second, it can give them an idea of what messages, ideas, or slogans are the strongest with the electorate. In a tracking poll responses are obtained in a number of consecutive periods, for instance daily, and then results are calculated using a moving average of the responses that were gathered over
15264-518: The city of Birmingham . Luntz led a focus group telecast with the Irish state broadcaster RTÉ to gather the opinions of the Irish people before the May 24, 2007 general elections. RTÉ hoped to show viewers some of the campaign techniques the political parties were using without their knowledge. Another focus group of swing voters was analysed by Luntz in the lead-up to the November 2007 poll between
15423-416: The contention and argumentation of voters after the 2012 presidential election and, at the time of the interview for the article, was in psychological turmoil: "Something in his psyche has broken, and he does not know if he can recover." As a result, in 2014, after Obama won, he sold the majority of shares of his polling business, LuntzGlobal. In August 2020, Luntz was asked what the defining principles of
15582-535: The contest for the United States Presidency . Since Jackson won the popular vote in that state and the national popular vote, such straw votes gradually became more popular, but they remained local, usually citywide phenomena. In 1916, The Literary Digest embarked on a national survey (partly as a circulation-raising exercise) and correctly predicted Woodrow Wilson 's election as president. Mailing out millions of postcards and simply counting
15741-609: The country, allowing for a comparative analysis between specific regions. For example, in the United States, exit polls are beneficial in accurately determining how the state voters cast their ballot instead of relying on a national survey. Third, exit polls can give journalists and social scientists a greater understanding of why voters voted the way they did and what factors contributed to their vote. Exit polling has several disadvantages that can cause controversy depending on its use. First, these polls are not always accurate and can sometimes mislead election reporting. For instance, during
15900-539: The end of 2006. After donating a total of $ 65,000 in 2007–2008, he stopped donating any personal funds to the charity, which received millions from other donors, including $ 5 million from Vince McMahon . The foundation gave to health- and sports-related charities, conservative groups, and charities that held events at Trump properties. In 2016, The Washington Post reported that the charity committed several potential legal and ethical violations, including alleged self-dealing and possible tax evasion . Also in 2016,
16059-404: The factors that impact the results of opinion polls are the wording and order of the questions being posed by the surveyor. Questions that intentionally affect a respondents answer are referred to as leading questions . Individuals and/or groups use these types of questions in surveys to elicit responses favorable to their interests. For instance, the public is more likely to indicate support for
16218-632: The family real estate business in 1971, he renamed it the Trump Organization . Trump launched side ventures following a series of bankruptcies in the 1990s, mostly by licensing the Trump name. From 2004 to 2015, he produced and hosted the reality television series The Apprentice . In 2015, Trump launched a presidential campaign that led to the Trumpism movement. Trump won the 2016 presidential election . His election and policies sparked numerous protests . In his first term , he ordered
16377-595: The first U.S. president to be convicted of a felony. He faced more felony indictments related to his interference in the 2020 election and his handling of classified documents , which were dismissed following his reelection in 2024. Trump was born on June 14, 1946, at Jamaica Hospital in Queens , New York City, the fourth child of Fred Trump and Mary Anne MacLeod Trump . He is of German and Scottish descent. He grew up with his older siblings, Maryanne , Fred Jr. , and Elizabeth, and his younger brother, Robert , in
16536-409: The foundation, Trump, and his adult children, seeking $ 2.8 million in restitution and additional penalties. In December 2018, the foundation ceased operation and disbursed its assets to other charities. In November 2019, a New York state judge ordered Trump to pay $ 2 million to a group of charities for misusing the foundation's funds, in part to finance his presidential campaign. Roy Cohn
16695-681: The height of the Occupy Wall Street movement, Luntz had a meeting with the Republican Governors Association to discuss how to respond to the Occupy movement. He was quoted as saying: "I'm so scared of this anti-Wall Street effort. I'm frightened to death. They're having an impact on what the American people think of capitalism." According to a 2014 article in The Atlantic , Luntz became frustrated with
16854-768: The initial Forbes list of wealthy people for holding a share of his family's estimated $ 200 million net worth (equivalent to $ 631 million in 2023). His losses in the 1980s dropped him from the list between 1990 and 1995. After filing the mandatory financial disclosure report with the FEC in July 2015, he announced a net worth of about $ 10 billion. Records released by the FEC showed at least $ 1.4 billion in assets and $ 265 million in liabilities. Forbes estimated his net worth dropped by $ 1.4 billion between 2015 and 2018. In their 2024 billionaires ranking, his net worth
17013-403: The international community. For example, when discussing the contours of a two-state solution , the report advised describing Palestinian negotiating points as "demands" because Americans dislike people who make "demands." The report was marked "not for distribution or publication", but it was leaked to Newsweek shortly after it was written. Although Luntz later tried to distance himself from
17172-594: The leader just barely scraped in, Bertie Ahern, because the economy was so good. But the big difference there was the opposition leader was not as good as Kevin Rudd." Luntz was brought in to conduct his research in a collaborative effort by Sky News Australia and The Australian newspaper. During the 2010 UK general election, Luntz led focus groups during the Prime Ministerial debates between Gordon Brown , David Cameron and Nick Clegg , and also appeared on
17331-409: The margin of error is to rely on poll averages . This makes the assumption that the procedure is similar enough between many different polls and uses the sample size of each poll to create a polling average. Another source of error stems from faulty demographic models by pollsters who weigh their samples by particular variables such as party identification in an election. For example, if you assume that
17490-425: The media and the electoral process. In the U.S., Congress and state governments have criticized the use of exit polling because Americans tend to believe more in the accuracy of exit polls. If an exit poll shows that American voters were leaning toward a particular candidate, most would assume that the candidate would win. However, as mentioned earlier, an exit poll can sometimes be inaccurate and lead to situations like
17649-467: The micro-blogging platform Twitter ) for modelling and predicting voting intention polls. A benchmark poll is generally the first poll taken in a campaign. It is often taken before a candidate announces their bid for office, but sometimes it happens immediately following that announcement after they have had some opportunity to raise funds. This is generally a short and simple survey of likely voters. Benchmark polling often relies on timing, which can be
17808-443: The most powerful force known to mankind." Additionally in his 2007 interview on Fresh Air , Luntz discussed his use of the term "energy exploration" to refer to oil drilling. His research on the matter involved showing people a picture of current oil drilling and asking if in the picture it "looks like exploration or drilling." He said that 90 percent of the people he spoke to said it looked like exploring. "Therefore I'd argue that it
17967-638: The mostly vacant 71-story skyscraper at 40 Wall Street , later rebranded as the Trump Building. In the early 1990s, he won the right to develop a 70-acre (28 ha) tract in the Lincoln Square neighborhood near the Hudson River. Struggling with debt from other ventures in 1994, he sold most of his interest in the project to Asian investors, who financed the project's completion, Riverside South . Trump's last major construction project
18126-605: The nearest taxpayers. In 1995, his reported losses were $ 915.7 million (equivalent to $ 1.83 billion in 2023). In 2020, The New York Times obtained Trump's tax information extending over two decades. Its reporters found that he reported losses of hundreds of millions of dollars. Since 2010 he had also failed to pay back $ 287 million in loans. During the 15 years prior to 2020, using tax credits for business losses, he paid no income taxes in 10 of those years and $ 750 each in 2016 and 2017. He balanced his businesses' losses by selling and borrowing against assets, including
18285-429: The necessary information to learn more about it. Despite this, there are two issues with deliberative opinion polls. First, they are expensive and challenging to perform since they require a representative sample of voters, and the information given on specific issues must be fair and balanced. Second, the results of deliberative opinion polls generally do not reflect the opinions of most voters since most voters do not take
18444-445: The oil—they're two different things, aren't they?" James L. Martin, chairman of the conservative 60 Plus Association , described Luntz's role as being that of pollster and popularizer of the phrase "death tax." Martin gained an important ally in GOP pollster Frank Luntz, whose polling revealed that 'death tax' sparked voter resentment in a way that 'inheritance tax' and 'estate tax' couldn't match. After all, who wouldn't be opposed to
18603-545: The part of the pollsters; many of them are statistical in nature. Some blame respondents for not providing genuine answers to pollsters, a phenomenon known as social desirability-bias (also referred to as the Bradley effect or the Shy Tory Factor ); these terms can be quite controversial. Polls based on samples of populations are subject to sampling error which reflects the effects of chance and uncertainty in
18762-427: The plan a government takeover." On April 25, 2013, The American Spectator , a conservative news outlet, published a scathing article about Luntz titled "The Problematic Frank Luntz's Stockholm Syndrome ". In fact, what Luntz has done is simply reveal the kind of thinking that goes on in the minds of too many on the right who, whether they realize it or not, have been intellectually and culturally bullied that there
18921-728: The political spectrum. Starting in 1968, Trump was employed at his father's real estate company, Trump Management, which owned racially segregated middle-class rental housing in New York City's outer boroughs. In 1971, his father made him president of the company and he began using the Trump Organization as an umbrella brand . In 1975, Trump settled a 1973 Department of Justice civil rights lawsuit alleging housing discrimination against black renters by consenting to desegregate. Between 1991 and 2009, he filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection for six of his businesses:
19080-403: The poll is done prior to announcing for office the candidate may use the poll to decide whether or not they should even run for office. Secondly, it shows them where their weaknesses and strengths are in two main areas. The first is the electorate. A benchmark poll shows them what types of voters they are sure to win, those they are sure to lose, and everyone in-between these two extremes. This lets
19239-611: The poll, causing it to favor the candidate most different from the others while it disfavors candidates who are similar to other candidates. The plurality voting system also biases elections in the same way. Some people responding may not understand the words being used, but may wish to avoid the embarrassment of admitting this, or the poll mechanism may not allow clarification, so they may make an arbitrary choice. Some percentage of people also answer whimsically or out of annoyance at being polled. This results in perhaps 4% of Americans reporting they have personally been decapitated . Among
19398-434: The poll, poll samples may not be representative samples from a population due to a non-response bias . Response rates have been declining, and are down to about 10% in recent years. Various pollsters have attributed this to an increased skepticism and lack of interest in polling. Because of this selection bias , the characteristics of those who agree to be interviewed may be markedly different from those who decline. That is,
19557-504: The population of interest to the pollster. A scientific poll not only will have a sufficiently large sample, it will also be sensitive to response rates. Very low response rates will raise questions about how representative and accurate the results are. Are there systematic differences between those who participated in the survey and those who, for whatever reason, did not participate? Sampling methods, sample size, and response rates will all be discussed in this chapter" (Asher 2017). A caution
19716-570: The questions are then worded in a way that limit the possible answers, typically to yes or no. Another type of question that can produce inaccurate results are " Double-Negative Questions". These are more often the result of human error, rather than intentional manipulation. One such example is a survey done in 1992 by the Roper Organization , concerning the Holocaust . The question read "Does it seem possible or impossible to you that
19875-580: The questions? We understand the need for confidentiality, but once a pollster makes results public, the information needs to be public. People need to be able to evaluate whether it was sound research. In 2000 he was censured by the National Council on Public Polls "for allegedly mischaracterizing on MSNBC the results of focus groups he conducted during the [2000] Republican Convention." In September 2004, MSNBC dropped Luntz from its planned coverage of that year's presidential debate, saying "[W]e made
20034-523: The racist "birther" conspiracy theory , alleging that Barack Obama, the first black U.S. president, was not born in the U.S. In April, he claimed credit for pressuring the White House to publish the "long-form" birth certificate, which he considered fraudulent, and later said this made him "very popular". In September 2016, amid pressure, he acknowledged that Obama was born in the U.S. In 2017, he reportedly expressed birther views privately. Trump has
20193-455: The radius of the confidence interval for a reported percentage of 50%. Others suggest that a poll with a random sample of 1,000 people has margin of sampling error of ±3% for the estimated percentage of the whole population. A 3% margin of error means that if the same procedure is used a large number of times, 95% of the time the true population average will be within the sample estimate plus or minus 3%. The margin of error can be reduced by using
20352-529: The related licensing agreements, they earned him more than $ 400 million. In February 2021, Trump, who had been a member of SAG-AFTRA since 1989, resigned to avoid a disciplinary hearing regarding the January ;6 attack. Two days later, the union permanently barred him. Trump registered as a Republican in 1987; a member of the Independence Party , the New York state affiliate of
20511-632: The rents of his rent-stabilized units. From 1996 to 2015, Trump owned all or part of the Miss Universe pageants, including Miss USA and Miss Teen USA . Due to disagreements with CBS about scheduling, he took both pageants to NBC in 2002. In 2007, he received a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame for his work as producer of Miss Universe. NBC and Univision dropped the pageants in June 2015. In 2004, Trump co-founded Trump University ,
20670-688: The request "strange and unbelievable". Trump was a candidate in the 2000 Reform Party presidential primaries for three months, but withdrew from the race in February 2000. In 2011, Trump speculated about running against President Barack Obama in the 2012 election , making his first speaking appearance at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in February and giving speeches in early primary states. In May, he announced he would not run. His presidential ambitions were generally not taken seriously at
20829-465: The result. The Literary Digest soon went out of business, while polling started to take off. Roper went on to correctly predict the two subsequent reelections of President Franklin D. Roosevelt. Louis Harris had been in the field of public opinion since 1947 when he joined the Elmo Roper firm, then later became partner. In September 1938, Jean Stoetzel , after having met Gallup, created IFOP,
20988-520: The returns, The Literary Digest also correctly predicted the victories of Warren Harding in 1920, Calvin Coolidge in 1924, Herbert Hoover in 1928, and Franklin Roosevelt in 1932. Then, in 1936 , its survey of 2.3 million voters suggested that Alf Landon would win the presidential election, but Roosevelt was instead re-elected by a landslide. George Gallup 's research found that the error
21147-536: The ruling Coalition and the opposition Labor party. Luntz noted that, like the Irish scenario, the Coalition was well established, presiding over the country for 11 years and overseeing continued economic growth for much of that period; and that unlike the lead-up to the Irish elections, Australia had a stronger and more popular opposition leader in Kevin Rudd : "This is much closer to the Irish election where
21306-416: The same characteristics as the people who do answer, then the final results should be unbiased. If the people who do not answer have different opinions then there is bias in the results. In terms of election polls, studies suggest that bias effects are small, but each polling firm has its own techniques for adjusting weights to minimize selection bias. Survey results may be affected by response bias , where
21465-408: The sampling process. Sampling polls rely on the law of large numbers to measure the opinions of the whole population based only on a subset, and for this purpose the absolute size of the sample is important, but the percentage of the whole population is not important (unless it happens to be close to the sample size). The possible difference between the sample and whole population is often expressed as
21624-776: The second opinion without having it, causing opinion polls to become part of self-fulfilling prophecy problems. It has been suggested that attempts to counteract unethical opinions by condemning supposedly linked opinions may favor the groups that promote the actually unethical opinions by forcing people with supposedly linked opinions into them by ostracism elsewhere in society making such efforts counterproductive, that not being sent between groups that assume ulterior motives from each other and not being allowed to express consistent critical thought anywhere may create psychological stress because humans are sapient, and that discussion spaces free from assumptions of ulterior motives behind specific opinions should be created. In this context, rejection of
21783-410: The successful mayoral campaigns of Rudolph Giuliani in New York City. In December 2008 to January 2009, Luntz wrote a report titled " The Israel Project's 2009 Global Language Dictionary ". It was commissioned by The Israel Project and meant to advise media spokespeople to use specific language that Luntz believed would create a more favorable impression of Israel in the United States and the rest of
21942-412: The term 'death tax' so aggressively that it has entered the popular lexicon. Nonpartisan venues like newspapers and magazines have begun to use it in a neutral context—a coup for abolitionists like Martin. In a confidential memo to the Republican party, Luntz is credited with advising the Bush administration that the phrase "global warming" should be abandoned in favour of "climate change", which he called
22101-466: The time to research issues the way an academic researches issues. Exit polls interview voters just as they are leaving polling places. Unlike general public opinion polls, these are polls of people who voted in the election. Exit polls provide a more accurate picture of which candidates the public prefers in an election because people participating in the poll did vote in the election. Second, these polls are conducted across multiple voting locations across
22260-445: The tone of the question(s) and generate a certain response or reaction, rather than gauge sentiment in an unbiased manner. In opinion polling, there are also " loaded questions ", otherwise known as " trick questions ". This type of leading question may concern an uncomfortable or controversial issue, and/or automatically assume the subject of the question is related to the respondent(s) or that they are knowledgeable about it. Likewise,
22419-413: The uses of the term, given that his essay derides the use of cliché and dying metaphors. Luntz's description of his job revolves around exploiting the emotional content of language. "It's all emotion. But there's nothing wrong with emotion. When we are in love, we are not rational; we are emotional. ... my job is to look for the words that trigger the emotion. ... We know that words and emotion together are
22578-532: The viewer at home is going to have a different reaction than if I respond to you with emotion and with passion and I wave my arms around. Somebody like this is an intellectual; somebody like this is a freak." In an article in The New Yorker Luntz said, The way my words are created is by taking the words of others.... I've moderated an average of a hundred plus focus groups a year over five years... I show them language that I've created. Then I leave
22737-534: The volatility of the results was at least in part due to an uneven distribution of Democratic and Republican affiliated voters in the samples. Though the Gallup Organization argued the volatility in the poll was a genuine representation of the electorate, other polling organizations took steps to reduce such wide variations in their results. One such step included manipulating the proportion of Democrats and Republicans in any given sample, but this method
22896-545: The wealthy Jamaica Estates neighborhood of Queens. He attended the private Kew-Forest School through seventh grade and New York Military Academy , a private boarding school, from eighth through twelfth grade. In 1964, Trump enrolled at Fordham University . Two years later, he transferred to the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania , graduating in May 1968 with a Bachelor of Science in economics. In 2015, he threatened his high school, colleges, and
23055-653: The winner (albeit not the extent of their winning margin), with the last two correctly predicting the winner of the popular vote (but not the Electoral College). In the United Kingdom, most polls failed to predict the Conservative election victories of 1970 and 1992 , and Labour's victory in February 1974 . In the 2015 election , virtually every poll predicted a hung parliament with Labour and
23214-440: The wording of the question. On some issues, question wording can result in quite pronounced differences between surveys. This can also, however, be a result of legitimately conflicted feelings or evolving attitudes, rather than a poorly constructed survey. A common technique to control for this bias is to rotate the order in which questions are asked. Many pollsters also split-sample. This involves having two different versions of
23373-461: The years, technological innovations have also influenced survey methods such as the availability of electronic clipboards and Internet based polling. Opinion polling developed into popular applications through popular thought, although response rates for some surveys declined. Also, the following has also led to differentiating results: Some polling organizations, such as Angus Reid Public Opinion , YouGov and Zogby use Internet surveys, where
23532-639: Was Pat Buchanan 's pollster during the 1992 U.S. Republican presidential primary , and later that year served as Ross Perot 's pollster in the general election . Luntz also served as Newt Gingrich 's pollster in the mid-1990s for the Contract with America . During that time, he helped Gingrich produce a GOPAC memo that encouraged Republicans to "speak like Newt" by describing Democrats and Democratic policies using words such as "corrupt," "devour," "greed," "hypocrisy," "liberal," "sick," and "traitors." In 1993 and 1997 Luntz served as pollster and strategist for
23691-415: Was Trump's fixer , lawyer, and mentor for 13 years in the 1970s and 1980s. According to Trump, Cohn sometimes waived fees due to their friendship. In 1973, Cohn helped Trump countersue the U.S. government for $ 100 million (equivalent to $ 686 million in 2023) over its charges that Trump's properties had racial discriminatory practices. Trump's counterclaims were dismissed, and the government's case
23850-430: Was a clear tendency for polls which included mobile phones in their samples to show a much larger lead for Obama , than polls that did not. The potential sources of bias are: Some polling companies have attempted to get around that problem by including a "cellphone supplement". There are a number of problems with including cellphones in a telephone poll: A widely publicized failure of opinion polling to date in
24009-479: Was a guest commentator on Fox & Friends . From 2004 to 2015, Trump was co-producer and host of reality shows The Apprentice and The Celebrity Apprentice . On the shows, he was a superrich and successful chief executive who eliminated contestants with the catchphrase "you're fired". The New York Times called his portrayal a "highly flattering, highly fictionalized version of Mr. Trump". The shows remade his image for millions of viewers nationwide. With
24168-626: Was an adjunct professor at the University of Pennsylvania from 1989 until 1996 and also taught at George Washington University and Harvard University as well as NYU Abu Dhabi campus for January terms. Luntz has experienced multiple strokes, which he has openly discussed in several interviews. The first occurred on January 10, 2020, followed by a second on April 17, 2023. Despite these challenges, he has consistently recovered and remained active in public analysis and media appearances. He has stated that he believes that stress over not forcefully speaking out enough against president elect Donald Trump
24327-596: Was estimated to be $ 2.3 billion (1,438th in the world). In 2018, journalist Jonathan Greenberg reported that Trump had called him in 1984 pretending to be a fictional Trump Organization official named " John Barron ". Greenberg said that, to get a higher ranking on the Forbes 400 list of wealthy Americans, Trump, speaking as "Barron", falsely asserted that Donald Trump owned more than 90 percent of his father's business. Greenberg also wrote that Forbes had vastly overestimated Trump's wealth and wrongly included him on
24486-518: Was financed with $ 675 million in junk bonds and completed for $ 1.1 billion, opening in April 1990. He filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 1991. Under the provisions of the restructuring agreement, he gave up half his initial stake and personally guaranteed future performance. To reduce his $ 900 million of personal debt, he sold the Trump Shuttle airline; his megayacht,
24645-573: Was first identified in 2004, but came to prominence only during the 2008 US presidential election . In previous elections, the proportion of the general population using cell phones was small, but as this proportion has increased, there is concern that polling only landlines is no longer representative of the general population. In 2003, only 2.9% of households were wireless (cellphones only), compared to 12.8% in 2006. This results in " coverage error ". Many polling organisations select their sample by dialling random telephone numbers; however, in 2008, there
24804-555: Was in his father's name, supported student trips to Washington, D.C. Pollster The first known example of an opinion poll was a tally of voter preferences reported by the Raleigh Star and North Carolina State Gazette and the Wilmington American Watchman and Delaware Advertiser prior to the 1824 presidential election , showing Andrew Jackson leading John Quincy Adams by 335 votes to 169 in
24963-483: Was mainly caused by participation bias ; those who favored Landon were more enthusiastic about returning their postcards. Furthermore, the postcards were sent to a target audience who were more affluent than the American population as a whole, and therefore more likely to have Republican sympathies. At the same time, Gallup, Archibald Crossley and Elmo Roper conducted surveys that were far smaller but more scientifically based, and all three managed to correctly predict
25122-535: Was settled with the Trumps signing a consent decree agreeing to desegregate. In 1975, an agreement was struck requiring Trump's properties to furnish the New York Urban League with a list of all apartment vacancies, every week for two years, among other things. Cohn introduced political consultant Roger Stone to Trump, who enlisted Stone's services to deal with the federal government. According to
25281-590: Was the 92-story mixed-use Trump International Hotel and Tower (Chicago) which opened in 2008. In 2024, the New York Times and ProPublica reported that the Internal Revenue Service was investigating whether he had twice written off losses incurred through construction cost overruns and lagging sales of residential units in the building he had declared to be worthless on his 2008 tax return. In 1984, Trump opened Harrah's at Trump Plaza ,
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