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112-458: Other programs under MHA include: The subprime mortgage crisis was triggered by a large decline in home prices after the collapse of a housing bubble , leading to mortgage delinquencies, foreclosures , and the devaluation of housing-related securities . Declines in residential investment preceded the recession and were followed by reductions in household spending and then business investment. Spending reductions were more significant in areas with

224-434: A run on the shadow banking system that began in mid-2007, which adversely affected the functioning of money markets. Examples of vulnerabilities in the private sector included: financial institution dependence on unstable sources of short-term funding such as repurchase agreements or Repos; deficiencies in corporate risk management; excessive use of leverage (borrowing to invest); and inappropriate usage of derivatives as

336-496: A time series of identical cash flows, the cash flow in the present is the most valuable, with each future cash flow becoming less valuable than the previous cash flow. A cash flow today is more valuable than an identical cash flow in the future because a present flow can be invested immediately and begin earning returns, while a future flow cannot. NPV is determined by calculating the costs (negative cash flows) and benefits (positive cash flows) for each period of an investment. After

448-745: A "classic" boom-bust credit cycle was a narrowing of the difference between subprime and prime mortgage interest rates (the "subprime markup") between 2001 and 2007. In addition to considering higher-risk borrowers, lenders had offered progressively riskier loan options and borrowing incentives. In 2005, the median down payment for first-time home buyers was 2%, with 43% of those buyers making no down payment whatsoever. By comparison, China has down payment requirements that exceed 20%, with higher amounts for non-primary residences. To produce more mortgages and more securities, mortgage qualification guidelines became progressively looser. First, "stated income, verified assets" (SIVA) loans replaced proof of income with

560-457: A "statement" of it. Then, "no income, verified assets" (NIVA) loans eliminated proof of employment requirements. Borrowers needed only to show proof of money in their bank accounts. "No Income, No Assets" (NINA) or Ninja loans eliminated the need to prove, or even to state any owned assets. All that was required for a mortgage was a credit score. Types of mortgages became more risky as well. The interest-only adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) allowed

672-414: A "willful disregard" for a borrower's ability to pay. Nearly 25% of all mortgages made in the first half of 2005 were "interest-only" loans. During the same year, 68% of "option ARM" loans originated by Countrywide Financial and Washington Mutual had low- or no-documentation requirements. At least one study has suggested that the decline in standards was driven by a shift of mortgage securitization from

784-453: A balance, up from 6% in 1970. Free cash used by consumers from home equity extraction doubled from $ 627 billion in 2001 to $ 1,428 billion in 2005 as the housing bubble built, a total of nearly $ 5 trillion over the period. U.S. home mortgage debt relative to GDP increased from an average of 46% during the 1990s to 73% during 2008, reaching $ 10.5 (~$ 14.6 trillion in 2023) trillion. From 2001 to 2007, U.S. mortgage debt almost doubled, and

896-424: A building boom and eventually to a surplus of unsold homes, which caused U.S. housing prices to peak and begin declining in mid-2006. Easy credit, and a belief that house prices would continue to appreciate, had encouraged many subprime borrowers to obtain adjustable-rate mortgages . These mortgages enticed borrowers with a below market interest rate for some predetermined period, followed by market interest rates for

1008-486: A cash flow depends on the interval of time between now and the cash flow because of the Time value of money (which includes the annual effective discount rate ). It provides a method for evaluating and comparing capital projects or financial products with cash flows spread over time, as in loans , investments , payouts from insurance contracts plus many other applications. Time value of money dictates that time affects

1120-427: A combination of high household debt and larger housing price declines. The housing bubble preceding the crisis was financed with mortgage-backed securities (MBSes) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), which initially offered higher interest rates (i.e. better returns) than government securities, along with attractive risk ratings from rating agencies . The crisis was caused by the rise in subprime lending and

1232-405: A cost is a negative for outgoing cash flow, thus this cash flow is represented as −100,000. The company assumes the product will provide equal benefits of 10,000 for each of 12 years beginning at  t = 1 . For simplicity, assume the company will have no outgoing cash flows after the initial 100,000 cost. This also makes the simplifying assumption that the net cash received or paid is lumped into

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1344-819: A long-term trend of rising housing prices had encouraged borrowers to assume risky mortgages in the anticipation that they would be able to quickly refinance at easier terms. However, once interest rates began to rise and housing prices started to drop moderately in 2006–2007 in many parts of the U.S., borrowers were unable to refinance. Defaults and foreclosure activity increased dramatically as easy initial terms expired, home prices fell, and adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) interest rates reset higher. As housing prices fell, global investor demand for mortgage-related securities evaporated. This became apparent by July 2007, when investment bank Bear Stearns announced that two of its hedge funds had imploded. These funds had invested in securities that derived their value from mortgages. When

1456-438: A negative NPV results in a loss. The NPV measures the excess or shortfall of cash flows, in present value terms, above the cost of funds. In a theoretical situation of unlimited capital budgeting , a company should pursue every investment with a positive NPV. However, in practical terms a company's capital constraints limit investments to projects with the highest NPV whose cost cash flows, or initial cash investment, do not exceed

1568-423: A number of years. Causes proposed include the inability of homeowners to make their mortgage payments (due primarily to adjustable-rate mortgages resetting, borrowers overextending, predatory lending , and speculation), overbuilding during the boom period, risky mortgage products, increased power of mortgage originators, high personal and corporate debt levels, financial products that distributed and perhaps concealed

1680-533: A number that is believed to have risen to 12 million by November 2008. By September 2010, 23% of all U.S. homes were worth less than the mortgage loan. Borrowers in this situation have an incentive to default on their mortgages as a mortgage is typically nonrecourse debt secured against the property. Economist Stan Leibowitz argued in the Wall Street Journal that although only 12% of homes had negative equity, they comprised 47% of foreclosures during

1792-687: A period are assumed to be at the end of each period. For constant cash flow R , the net present value N P V {\displaystyle \mathrm {NPV} } is a finite geometric series and is given by: N P V ( i , N , R ) = R ( 1 − ( 1 1 + i ) N + 1 1 − ( 1 1 + i ) ) , i ≠ 0 {\displaystyle \mathrm {NPV} (i,N,R)=R\left({\frac {1-\left({\frac {1}{1+i}}\right)^{N+1}}{1-\left({\frac {1}{1+i}}\right)}}\right),\quad i\neq 0} Inclusion of

1904-404: A positive NPV could be accepted. This does not necessarily mean that they should be undertaken since NPV at the cost of capital may not account for opportunity cost , i.e., comparison with other available investments. In financial theory , if there is a choice between two mutually exclusive alternatives, the one yielding the higher NPV should be selected. A positive net present value indicates that

2016-503: A project’s size and the cost of capital . The NPV calculation is purely financial and thus does not consider non-financial metrics that may be relevant to an investment decision. Comparing mutually exclusive projects with different investment horizons can be difficult. Since unequal projects are all assumed to have duplicate investment horizons, the NPV approach can be used to compare the optimal duration NPV. The time-discrete formula of

2128-402: A record level of nearly 40% of homes purchased were not intended as primary residences. David Lereah, National Association of Realtors 's chief economist at the time, stated that the 2006 decline in investment buying was expected: "Speculators left the market in 2006, which caused investment sales to fall much faster than the primary market." Housing prices nearly doubled between 2000 and 2006,

2240-420: A specified rate of return. In such cases, that rate of return should be selected as the discount rate for the NPV calculation. In this way, a direct comparison can be made between the profitability of the project and the desired rate of return. To some extent, the selection of the discount rate is dependent on the use to which it will be put. If the intent is simply to determine whether a project will add value to

2352-438: A tightly controlled duopoly to a competitive market in which mortgage originators held the most sway. The worst mortgage vintage years coincided with the periods during which Government Sponsored Enterprises (specifically Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) were at their weakest, and mortgage originators and private label securitizers were at their strongest. In a Peabody Award -winning program, NPR correspondents considered why there

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2464-454: A tool for taking excessive risks. Examples of vulnerabilities in the public sector included: statutory gaps and conflicts between regulators; ineffective use of regulatory authority; and ineffective crisis management capabilities. Bernanke also discussed " Too big to fail " institutions, monetary policy, and trade deficits. During May 2010, Warren Buffett and Paul Volcker separately described questionable assumptions or judgments underlying

2576-672: A vastly different trend from the historical appreciation at roughly the rate of inflation. While homes had not traditionally been treated as investments subject to speculation, this behavior changed during the housing boom. Media widely reported condominiums being purchased while under construction, then being "flipped" (sold) for a profit without the seller ever having lived in them. Some mortgage companies identified risks inherent in this activity as early as 2005, after identifying investors assuming highly leveraged positions in multiple properties. One 2017 NBER study argued that real estate investors (i.e., those owning 2+ homes) were more to blame for

2688-494: A year or two of appreciation. As a result of the depreciating housing prices, borrowers' ability to refinance became more difficult. Borrowers who found themselves unable to escape higher monthly payments by refinancing began to default. As more borrowers stopped making their mortgage payments, foreclosures and the supply of homes for sale increased. This placed downward pressure on housing prices, which further lowered homeowners' equity . The decline in mortgage payments also reduced

2800-488: Is discounted back to its present value (PV). Then all are summed such that NPV is the sum of all terms: P V = R t ( 1 + i ) t {\displaystyle \mathrm {PV} ={\frac {R_{t}}{(1+i)^{t}}}} where: The result of this formula is multiplied with the Annual Net cash in-flows and reduced by Initial Cash outlay the present value, but in cases where

2912-452: Is designed to help financially struggling homeowners avoid foreclosure by modifying loans to a level that is affordable for borrowers now and sustainable over the long term. This is done by interest rate reduction, fixing the interest rate, principal reduction or forbearance, and term extension. The program provides clear and consistent loan modification guidelines and includes incentives for borrowers, servicers and investors. In earlier years,

3024-481: Is down from 83,000 the prior September but well above the 2000–2006 average of 21,000 completed foreclosures per month. Speculative borrowing in residential real estate has been cited as a contributing factor to the subprime mortgage crisis. During 2006, 22% of homes purchased (1.65 million units) were for investment purposes, with an additional 14% (1.07 million units) purchased as vacation homes. During 2005, these figures were 28% and 12%, respectively. In other words,

3136-454: Is given by: This results in the least conservative NPV. The rate used to discount future cash flows to the present value is a key variable of this process. A firm's weighted average cost of capital (after tax) is often used, but many people believe that it is appropriate to use higher discount rates to adjust for risk, opportunity cost, or other factors. A variable discount rate with higher rates applied to cash flows occurring further along

3248-430: Is heavily dependent on knowledge of future cash flows, their timing, the length of a project, the initial investment required, and the discount rate. Hence, it can only be accurate if these input parameters are correct; although, sensitivity analyzes can be undertaken to examine how the NPV changes as the input variables are changed, thus reducing the uncertainty of the NPV. The accuracy of the NPV method relies heavily on

3360-684: Is just that the internal rate of return of the project falls below the required rate of return. NPV is an indicator for project investments, and has several advantages and disadvantages for decision-making. The NPV includes all relevant time and cash flows for the project by considering the time value of money , which is consistent with the goal of wealth maximization by creating the highest wealth for shareholders. The NPV formula accounts for cash flow timing patterns and size differences for each project, and provides an easy, unambiguous dollar value comparison of different investment options. The NPV can be easily calculated using modern spreadsheets, under

3472-404: Is the discount rate for which the NPV is exactly 0. The NPV method can be slightly adjusted to calculate how much money is contributed to a project's investment per dollar invested. This is known as the capital efficiency ratio. The formula for the net present value per dollar investment (NPVI) is given below: where: If the discounted benefits across the life of a project are $ 100 million and

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3584-463: Is the purchase price, the NPV is simply the PV of future cash flows minus the purchase price (which is its own PV). NPV can be described as the "difference amount" between the sums of discounted cash inflows and cash outflows. It compares the present value of money today to the present value of money in the future, taking inflation and returns into account. The NPV of a sequence of cash flows takes as input

3696-443: The R 0 {\displaystyle R_{0}} term is important in the above formulae. A typical capital project involves a large negative R 0 {\displaystyle R_{0}} cashflow (the initial investment) with positive future cashflows (the return on the investment). A key assessment is whether, for a given discount rate, the NPV is positive (profitable) or negative (loss-making). The IRR

3808-574: The 2008 United States presidential election , Presidential candidate Barack Obama promised to help homeowners who were facing foreclosure during the crisis. The Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) is a government program introduced in 2009 to respond to the subprime mortgage crisis . HAMP is part of the Making Home Affordable program (MHA), established in concert with the Hardest Hit Fund program (HHF) under

3920-770: The Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), a part of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 . HHF provides targeted aid to home owners in states hit hardest by the economic crisis and works in tandem with HAMP and most MHA programs. HAMP (and the entire MHA Program) is set to expire December 31, 2016, the last day to submit applications, and the Modification Effective Date must be on or before September 30, 2017. HHF has been extended to 2020. The Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP)

4032-502: The commercial paper markets, which are integral to funding business operations. Governments also bailed out key financial institutions, assuming significant additional financial commitments. The risks to the broader economy created by the housing market downturn and subsequent financial market crisis were primary factors in several decisions by central banks around the world to cut interest rates and governments to implement economic stimulus packages. Effects on global stock markets due to

4144-424: The complex number s describe the oscillating behaviour (compare with the pork cycle , cobweb theorem , and phase shift between commodity price and supply offer) whereas real parts are responsible for representing the effect of compound interest (compare with damping ). A corporation must decide whether to introduce a new product line. The company will have immediate costs of 100,000 at  t = 0 . Recall,

4256-410: The mortgage-backed security (MBS) and collateralized debt obligation (CDO), which were assigned safe ratings by the credit rating agencies. Net present value The net present value ( NPV ) or net present worth ( NPW ) is a way of measuring the value of an asset that has cashflow by adding up the present value of all the future cash flows that asset will generate. The present value of

4368-470: The shadow banking system . These entities were not subject to the same regulations as depository banking. Further, shadow banks were able to mask the extent of their risk taking from investors and regulators through the use of complex, off-balance sheet derivatives and securitizations. Economist Gary Gorton has referred to the 2007–2008 aspects of the crisis as a " run " on the shadow banking system. The complexity of these off-balance sheet arrangements and

4480-553: The 25.9% drop between 1928 and 1933 when the Great Depression occurred. From September 2008 to September 2012, there were approximately 4 million completed foreclosures in the U.S. As of September 2012, approximately 1.4 million homes, or 3.3% of all homes with a mortgage, were in some stage of foreclosure compared to 1.5 million, or 3.5%, in September 2011. During September 2012, 57,000 homes completed foreclosure; this

4592-425: The NPV can also be written as: where: Given the (period, cash inflows, cash outflows) shown by ( t , B t {\displaystyle B_{t}} , C t {\displaystyle C_{t}} ) where N is the total number of periods, the net present value N P V {\displaystyle \mathrm {NPV} } is given by: where: The NPV can be rewritten using

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4704-468: The U.S. and European economies. The U.S. entered a deep recession, with nearly 9 million jobs lost during 2008 and 2009, roughly 6% of the workforce. The number of jobs did not return to the December 2007 pre-crisis peak until May 2014. U.S. household net worth declined by nearly $ 13 trillion (20%) from its Q2 2007 pre-crisis peak, recovering by Q4 2012. U.S. housing prices fell nearly 30% on average and

4816-443: The U.S. financial and economic system that contributed to the crisis. These assumptions included: 1) Housing prices would not fall dramatically; 2) Free and open financial markets supported by sophisticated financial engineering would most effectively support market efficiency and stability, directing funds to the most profitable and productive uses; 3) Concepts embedded in mathematics and physics could be directly adapted to markets, in

4928-486: The U.S. stock market fell approximately 50% by early 2009, with stocks regaining their December 2007 level during September 2012. One estimate of lost output and income from the crisis comes to "at least 40% of 2007 gross domestic product ". Europe also continued to struggle with its own economic crisis , with elevated unemployment and severe banking impairments estimated at €940 billion between 2008 and 2012. As of January 2018, U.S. bailout funds had been fully recovered by

5040-424: The alternative. Related to this concept is to use the firm's reinvestment rate. Re-investment rate can be defined as the rate of return for the firm's investments on average. When analyzing projects in a capital constrained environment, it may be appropriate to use the reinvestment rate rather than the firm's weighted average cost of capital as the discount factor. It reflects opportunity cost of investment, rather than

5152-440: The amount of mortgage debt per household rose more than 63%, from $ 91,500 to $ 149,500, with essentially stagnant wages. Economist Tyler Cowen explained that the economy was highly dependent on this home equity extraction: "In the 1993–1997 period, home owners extracted an amount of equity from their homes equivalent to 2.3% to 3.8% GDP. By 2005, this figure had increased to 11.5% GDP." This credit and house price explosion led to

5264-596: The assumption that the discount rate and future cash flows are known. For a firm considering investing in multiple projects, the NPV has the benefit of being additive. That is, the NPVs of different projects may be aggregated to calculate the highest wealth creation, based on the available capital that can be invested by a firm. The NPV method has several disadvantages. The NPV approach does not consider hidden costs and project size. Thus, investment decisions on projects with substantial hidden costs may not be accurate. The NPV

5376-738: The boom period. The use of automated loan approvals allowed loans to be made without appropriate review and documentation. In 2007, 40% of all subprime loans resulted from automated underwriting. The chairman of the Mortgage Bankers Association claimed that mortgage brokers, while profiting from the home loan boom, did not do enough to examine whether borrowers could repay. Mortgage fraud by lenders and borrowers increased enormously. The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission reported in January 2011 that many mortgage lenders took eager borrowers' qualifications on faith, often with

5488-403: The bubble (and declines in the bust) were most pronounced. In these states, investor delinquency rose from around 15% in 2000 to over 35% in 2007 and 2008. Economist Robert Shiller argued that speculative bubbles are fueled by "contagious optimism, seemingly impervious to facts, that often takes hold when prices are rising. Bubbles are primarily social phenomena; until we understand and address

5600-412: The bubble. Further, this greater share of income flowing to the top increased the political power of business interests, who used that power to deregulate or limit regulation of the shadow banking system. According to Robert J. Shiller and other economists, housing price increases beyond the general inflation rate are not sustainable in the long term. From the end of World War II to the beginning of

5712-443: The cash flow for each period is calculated, the present value (PV) of each one is achieved by discounting its future value (see Formula ) at a periodic rate of return (the rate of return dictated by the market). NPV is the sum of all the discounted future cash flows. Because of its simplicity, NPV is a useful tool to determine whether a project or investment will result in a net profit or a loss. A positive NPV results in profit, while

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5824-428: The cash flows and a discount rate or discount curve and outputs a present value, which is the current fair price . The converse process in discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis takes a sequence of cash flows and a price as input and as output the discount rate, or internal rate of return (IRR) which would yield the given price as NPV. This rate, called the yield , is widely used in bond trading. Each cash inflow/outflow

5936-429: The cash flows are not equal in amount, the previous formula will be used to determine the present value of each cash flow separately. Any cash flow within 12 months will not be discounted for NPV purpose, nevertheless the usual initial investments during the first year R 0 are summed up a negative cash flow. The NPV can also be thought of as the difference between the discounted benefits and costs over time. As such,

6048-411: The choice of a discount rate and hence discount factor , representing an i nvestment's true risk premium . The discount rate is assumed to be constant over the life of an investment; however, discount rates can change over time. For example, discount rates can change as the cost of capital changes. There are other drawbacks to the NPV method, such as the fact that it displays a lack of consideration for

6160-421: The company's capital. NPV is a central tool in discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis and is a standard method for using the time value of money to appraise long-term projects. It is widely used throughout economics , financial analysis , and financial accounting . In the case when all future cash flows are positive, or incoming (such as the principal and coupon payment of a bond ) the only outflow of cash

6272-425: The company, using the firm's weighted average cost of capital may be appropriate. If trying to decide between alternative investments in order to maximize the value of the firm, the corporate reinvestment rate would probably be a better choice. Using variable rates over time, or discounting "guaranteed" cash flows differently from "at risk" cash flows, may be a superior methodology but is seldom used in practice. Using

6384-437: The crisis expanded from the housing market to other parts of the economy. Total losses were estimated in the trillions of U.S. dollars globally. While the housing and credit bubbles were growing, a series of factors caused the financial system to become increasingly fragile. Policymakers did not recognize the increasingly important role played by financial institutions such as investment banks and hedge funds , also known as

6496-566: The crisis first became more visible during 2007, several major financial institutions collapsed in late 2008, with significant disruption in the flow of credit to businesses and consumers and the onset of a severe global recession. Most notably, Lehman Brothers , a major mortgage lender, declared bankruptcy in September 2008 . There were many causes of the crisis, with commentators assigning different levels of blame to financial institutions, regulators, credit agencies, government housing policies, and consumers, among others. Two proximate causes were

6608-450: The crisis than subprime borrowers: "The rise in mortgage defaults during the crisis was concentrated in the middle of the credit score distribution, and mostly attributable to real estate investors" and that "credit growth between 2001 and 2007 was concentrated in the prime segment, and debt to high-risk [subprime] borrowers was virtually constant for all debt categories during this period." The authors argued that this investor-driven narrative

6720-400: The crisis was financed with mortgage-backed securities (MBSes) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), which initially offered higher interest rates (i.e. better returns) than government securities, along with attractive risk ratings from rating agencies . Despite being highly rated, most of these financial instruments were made up of high-risk subprime mortgages . While elements of

6832-405: The crisis were dramatic. Between January 1 and October 11, 2008, owners of stocks in U.S. corporations suffered about $ 8 trillion in losses, as their holdings declined in value from $ 20 trillion to $ 12 trillion. Losses in other countries averaged about 40%. Losses in the stock markets and housing value declines place further downward pressure on consumer spending, a key economic engine. Leaders of

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6944-501: The crisis, lacking a full understanding of the financial system they oversaw; and systemic breaches in accountability and ethics at all levels." There are several "narratives" attempting to place the causes of the crisis into context, with overlapping elements. Five such narratives include: Underlying narratives #1-3 is a hypothesis that growing income inequality and wage stagnation encouraged families to increase their household debt to maintain their desired living standard, fueling

7056-429: The discount rate to adjust for risk is often difficult to do in practice (especially internationally) and is difficult to do well. An alternative to using discount factor to adjust for risk is to explicitly correct the cash flows for the risk elements using risk-adjusted net present value ( rNPV ) or a similar method, then discount at the firm's rate. NPV is an indicator of how much value an investment or project adds to

7168-456: The discounted net costs across the life of a project are $ 60 million then the NPVI is: That is for every dollar invested in the project, a contribution of $ 0.6667 is made to the project's NPV. The NPV formula assumes that the benefits and costs occur at the end of each period, resulting in a more conservative NPV. However, it may be that the cash inflows and outflows occur at the beginning of

7280-424: The end of 2007. When U.S. home prices declined steeply after peaking in mid-2006, it became more difficult for borrowers to refinance their loans. As adjustable-rate mortgages began to reset at higher interest rates (causing higher monthly payments), mortgage delinquencies soared. Securities backed with mortgages, including subprime mortgages, widely held by financial firms globally, lost most of their value. During

7392-607: The end of 2016 will provide real relief for borrowers who continue to face challenges either paying their mortgage or refinancing their loan. " Once the first loan is modified under HAMP, if the second loan is eligible (and in most cases it is), it too is either modified or partially or fully extinguished. This program expired on December 31, 2016. In his book Bailout: How Washington Abandoned Main Street While Rescuing Wall Street , Neil Barofsky argues that Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner never had

7504-519: The finance industry's opaque faulty risk pricing methodology. Among the important catalysts of the subprime crisis were the influx of money from the private sector, the banks entering into the mortgage bond market, government policies aimed at expanding homeownership, speculation by many home buyers, and the predatory lending practices of the mortgage lenders, specifically the adjustable-rate mortgage, 2–28 loan , that mortgage lenders sold directly or indirectly via mortgage brokers. On Wall Street and in

7616-596: The financial industry, moral hazard lay at the core of many of the causes. In its "Declaration of the Summit on Financial Markets and the World Economy," dated November 15, 2008, leaders of the Group of 20 cited the following causes: During a period of strong global growth, growing capital flows, and prolonged stability earlier this decade, market participants sought higher yields without an adequate appreciation of

7728-561: The financial system, including the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) and the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA). The collapse of the United States housing bubble and high interest rates led to unprecedented numbers of borrowers missing mortgage repayments and becoming delinquent. This ultimately led to mass foreclosures and the devaluation of housing-related securities . The housing bubble preceding

7840-404: The firm. With a particular project, if R t {\displaystyle R_{t}} is a positive value, the project is in the status of positive cash inflow in the time of  t . If R t {\displaystyle R_{t}} is a negative value, the project is in the status of discounted cash outflow in the time of  t . Appropriately risked projects with

7952-875: The form of various financial models used to evaluate credit risk; 4) Economic imbalances, such as large trade deficits and low savings rates indicative of over-consumption, were sustainable; and 5) Stronger regulation of the shadow banking system and derivatives markets was not needed. Economists surveyed by the University of Chicago during 2017 rated the factors that caused the crisis in order of importance: 1) Flawed financial sector regulation and supervision; 2) Underestimating risks in financial engineering (e.g., CDOs); 3) Mortgage fraud and bad incentives; 4) Short-term funding decisions and corresponding runs in those markets (e.g., repo); and 5) Credit rating agency failures. The U.S. Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission reported its findings in January 2011. It concluded that "the crisis

8064-562: The government, when interest on loans is taken into consideration. A total of $ 626B was invested, loaned, or granted due to various bailout measures, while $ 390B had been returned to the Treasury. The Treasury had earned another $ 323B in interest on bailout loans, resulting in an $ 109B profit as of January 2021. The immediate cause of the crisis was the bursting of the United States housing bubble which peaked in approximately 2006. An increase in loan incentives such as easy initial terms and

8176-500: The homeowner to pay only the interest (not principal) of the mortgage during an initial "teaser" period. Even looser was the "payment option" loan, in which the homeowner has the option to make monthly payments that do not even cover the interest for the first two- or three-year initial period of the loan. Nearly one in 10 mortgage borrowers in 2005 and 2006 took out these "option ARM" loans, and an estimated one-third of ARMs originated between 2004 and 2006 had "teaser" rates below 4%. After

8288-572: The housing and credit booms, the number of financial agreements called mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which derive their value from mortgage payments and housing prices, greatly increased. Such financial innovation enabled institutions and investors around the world to invest in the U.S. housing market. As housing prices declined, major global financial institutions that had borrowed and invested heavily in MBS reported significant losses. Defaults and losses on other loan types also increased significantly as

8400-463: The housing bubble in 1997, housing prices in the US remained relatively stable. The bubble was characterized by higher rates of household debt and lower savings rates, slightly higher rates of home ownership, and of course higher housing prices. It was fueled by low interest rates and large inflows of foreign funds that created easy credit conditions. Between 1997 and 2006 (the peak of the housing bubble),

8512-405: The increase in housing speculation. The percentage of lower-quality subprime mortgages originated during a given year rose from the historical 8% or lower range to approximately 20% from 2004 to 2006, with much higher ratios in some parts of the U.S. A high percentage of these subprime mortgages, over 90% in 2006 for example, were adjustable-rate mortgages . Housing speculation also increased, with

8624-505: The initial period, monthly payments might double or even triple. The proportion of subprime ARM loans made to people with credit scores high enough to qualify for conventional mortgages with better terms increased from 41% in 2000 to 61% by 2006. In addition, mortgage brokers in some cases received incentives from lenders to offer subprime ARMs even to those with credit ratings that merited a conforming (i.e., non-subprime) loan. Mortgage underwriting standards declined precipitously during

8736-421: The intention to utilize the program as intended by Congress . Instead of providing relief for homeowners to avoid foreclosures, it was Geithner's plan that the bank should proceed with foreclosures. Geithner "estimates" that the banks "can handle ten million foreclosures, over time", and that HAMP "will help foam the runway for them" by "keeping the full flush of foreclosures from hitting the financial system all at

8848-825: The investor will make more money by modifying the mortgage rather than foreclosing. HAMP abides by the following eligibility and verification criteria: At the Greenlining Institute 22nd Annual Economic Summit on May 8, 2015, Mel Watt announced that the program would cease end of year 2016. The Director of the FHFA had this to say regarding the program: " Although the number of new borrowers entering these two programs continues to decline, in part because many eligible borrowers have already taken advantage of them and in part because of recovering house prices, lenders and servicers are continuing to approve new HAMP modifications and HARP refinances. Extending HAMP and HARP through

8960-658: The larger developed and emerging nations met in November 2008 and March 2009 to formulate strategies for addressing the crisis. A variety of solutions have been proposed by government officials, central bankers, economists, and business executives. In the U.S., the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act was signed into law in July 2010 to address some of the causes of the crisis. The crisis can be attributed to several factors, which emerged over

9072-516: The loans described above and did not have a financial cushion sufficient to absorb large loan defaults or MBS losses. The losses experienced by financial institutions on their mortgage-related securities impacted their ability to lend, slowing economic activity. Interbank lending dried-up initially and then loans to non-financial firms were affected. Concerns regarding the stability of key financial institutions drove central banks to take action to provide funds to encourage lending and to restore faith in

9184-690: The net cash flow ( R t ) {\displaystyle (R_{t})} in each time period as: N P V ( i , N ) = ∑ t = 0 N R t ( 1 + i ) t {\displaystyle \mathrm {NPV} (i,N)=\sum _{t=0}^{N}{\frac {R_{t}}{(1+i)^{t}}}} By convention, the initial period occurs at time t = 0 {\displaystyle t=0} , where cash flows in successive periods are then discounted from t = 1 , 2 , 3... {\displaystyle t=1,2,3...} and so on. Furthermore, all future cash flows during

9296-475: The net present value can also be written in a continuous variation where Net present value can be regarded as Laplace- respectively Z-transformed cash flow with the integral operator including the complex number s which resembles to the interest rate i from the real number space or more precisely s  = ln(1 +  i ). From this follow simplifications known from cybernetics , control theory and system dynamics . Imaginary parts of

9408-483: The period or in the middle of the period. The NPV formula for mid period discounting is given by: Over a project's lifecycle, cash flows are typically spread across each period (for example spread across each year), and as such the middle of the year represents the average point in time in which these cash flows occur. Hence mid period discounting typically provides a more accurate, although less conservative NPV. ЧикЙ The NPV formula using beginning of period discounting

9520-466: The possibly lower cost of capital. An NPV calculated using variable discount rates (if they are known for the duration of the investment) may better reflect the situation than one calculated from a constant discount rate for the entire investment duration. Refer to the tutorial article written by Samuel Baker for more detailed relationship between the NPV and the discount rate. For some professional investors, their investment funds are committed to target

9632-446: The price of the typical American house increased by 124%. Many research articles confirmed the timeline of the U.S. housing bubble (emerged in 2002 and collapsed in 2006–2007) before the collapse of the subprime mortgage industry. From 1980 to 2001, the ratio of median home prices to median household income (a measure of ability to buy a house) fluctuated from 2.9 to 3.1. In 2004 it rose to 4.0, and by 2006 it hit 4.6. The housing bubble

9744-414: The program. Subprime mortgage crisis The American subprime mortgage crisis was a multinational financial crisis that occurred between 2007 and 2010 that contributed to the 2007–2008 global financial crisis . The crisis led to a severe economic recession , with millions losing their jobs and many businesses going bankrupt . The U.S. government intervened with a series of measures to stabilize

9856-486: The projected earnings generated by a project or investment (in present dollars) exceeds the anticipated costs (also in present dollars). This concept is the basis for the Net Present Value Rule, which dictates that the only investments that should be made are those with positive NPVs. An investment with a positive NPV is profitable, but one with a negative NPV will not necessarily result in a net loss: it

9968-443: The property with the loan to be modified had to be your primary residence. In June 2012, HAMP was significantly revised to expand the scope of the program and clarify some troubling issues. A Tier 2 modification program was initiated permitting modifications for loans on properties not owner occupied and also allowing multiple loans on multiple properties to be modified. Pre-existing rules for owner occupied properties now come under

10080-550: The psychology that fuels them, they're going to keep forming." Keynesian economist Hyman Minsky described how speculative borrowing contributed to rising debt and an eventual collapse of asset values. Warren Buffett testified to the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission : "There was the greatest bubble I've ever seen in my life...The entire American public eventually was caught up in a belief that housing prices could not fall dramatically." In

10192-465: The remainder of the mortgage's term. The US home ownership rate increased from 64% in 1994 (about where it had been since 1980) to an all-time high of 69.2% in 2004. Subprime lending was a major contributor to this increase in home ownership rates and in the overall demand for housing, which drove prices higher. Borrowers who would not be able to make the higher payments once the initial grace period ended, were planning to refinance their mortgages after

10304-439: The rise in subprime lending and the increase in housing speculation. Investors, even those with "prime", or low-risk, credit ratings, were much more likely to default than non-investors when prices fell. These changes were part of a broader trend of lowered lending standards and higher-risk mortgage products, which contributed to U.S. households becoming increasingly indebted. The crisis had severe, long-lasting consequences for

10416-629: The risk of mortgage default, monetary and housing policies that encouraged risk-taking and more debt, international trade imbalances , and inappropriate government regulation. Excessive consumer housing debt was in turn caused by the mortgage-backed security , credit default swap , and collateralized debt obligation sub-sectors of the finance industry , which were offering irrationally low interest rates and irrationally high levels of approval to subprime mortgage consumers due in part to faulty financial models. Debt consumers were acting in their rational self-interest, because they were unable to audit

10528-487: The risks and failed to exercise proper due diligence. At the same time, weak underwriting standards, unsound risk management practices, increasingly complex and opaque financial products, and consequent excessive leverage combined to create vulnerabilities in the system. Policy-makers, regulators and supervisors, in some advanced countries, did not adequately appreciate and address the risks building up in financial markets, keep pace with financial innovation, or take into account

10640-411: The same time." As such, "banks participating in the program have rejected four million borrowers’ requests for help, or 72 percent of their applications, since the process began". Citimortgage and JPMorgan Chase were among the banks that refused the most HAMP claims. As such, the program only helped 887,001 people out of the over 4 Million people that were originally estimated to be able to benefit from

10752-409: The second half of 2008. He concluded that the extent of equity in the home was the key factor in foreclosure, rather than the type of loan, credit worthiness of the borrower, or ability to pay. Increasing foreclosure rates increases the inventory of houses offered for sale. The number of new homes sold in 2007 was 26.4% less than in the preceding year. By January 2008, the inventory of unsold new homes

10864-520: The securities held, as well as the interconnection between larger financial institutions, made it virtually impossible to re-organize them via bankruptcy, which contributed to the need for government bailouts. Some experts believe these shadow institutions had become as important as commercial (depository) banks in providing credit to the U.S. economy, but they were not subject to the same regulations. These institutions as well as certain regulated banks had also assumed significant debt burdens while providing

10976-446: The share of mortgage originations to investors (i.e. those owning homes other than primary residences) rising significantly from around 20% in 2000 to around 35% in 2006–2007. These changes were part of a broader trend of lowered lending standards and higher-risk mortgage products, which contributed to U.S. households becoming increasingly indebted. The ratio of household debt to disposable personal income rose from 77% in 1990 to 127% by

11088-481: The systemic ramifications of domestic regulatory actions. Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke testified in September 2010 regarding the causes of the crisis. He wrote that there were shocks or triggers (i.e., particular events that touched off the crisis) and vulnerabilities (i.e., structural weaknesses in the financial system, regulation and supervision) that amplified the shocks. Examples of triggers included: losses on subprime mortgage securities that began in 2007 and

11200-438: The time span might be used to reflect the yield curve premium for long-term debt. Another approach to choosing the discount rate factor is to decide the rate which the capital needed for the project could return if invested in an alternative venture. If, for example, the capital required for Project A can earn 5% elsewhere, use this discount rate in the NPV calculation to allow a direct comparison to be made between Project A and

11312-478: The umbrella of Tier 1 modifications. The MHA Handbook is a consolidated reference guide outlining the requirements and guidelines for the Making Home Affordable (MHA) Program and particularly HAMP, its most popular component. A complex calculation called the net present value (NPV) test is the foundation of the HAMP program. Tier 1 and Tier 2 have their own NPV test. The NPV test predicates modification on whether

11424-444: The value of cash flows. For example, a lender may offer 99 cents for the promise of receiving $ 1.00 a month from now, but the promise to receive that same dollar 20 years in the future would be worth much less today to that same person (lender), even if the payback in both cases was equally certain. This decrease in the current value of future cash flows is based on a chosen rate of return (or discount rate). If for example there exists

11536-552: The value of mortgage-backed securities, which eroded the net worth and financial health of banks. This vicious cycle was at the heart of the crisis. By September 2008, average U.S. housing prices had declined by over 20% from their mid-2006 peak. This major and unexpected decline in house prices means that many borrowers have zero or negative equity in their homes, meaning their homes were worth less than their mortgages. As of March 2008, an estimated 8.8 million borrowers – 10.8% of all homeowners – had negative equity in their homes,

11648-478: The value of these securities dropped, investors demanded that these hedge funds provide additional collateral. This created a cascade of selling in these securities, which lowered their value further. Economist Mark Zandi wrote that this 2007 event was "arguably the proximate catalyst" for the financial market disruption that followed. Several other factors set the stage for the rise and fall of housing prices, and related securities widely held by financial firms. In

11760-635: The years before the crisis, the behavior of lenders changed dramatically. Lenders offered more and more loans to higher-risk borrowers. Lending standards deteriorated particularly between 2004 and 2007, as the government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) mortgage market share (i.e. the share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac , which specialized in conventional, conforming , non-subprime mortgages) declined and private securitizers share grew, rising to more than half of mortgage securitizations. Subprime mortgages grew from 5% of total originations ($ 35 billion) in 1994, to 20% ($ 600 billion) in 2006. Another indicator of

11872-522: The years leading up to the crisis, the U.S. received large amounts of foreign money from fast-growing economies in Asia and oil-producing/exporting countries. This inflow of funds combined with low U.S. interest rates from 2002 to 2004 contributed to easy credit conditions, which fueled both housing and credit bubbles . Loans of various types (e.g., mortgage, credit card, and auto) were easy to obtain and consumers assumed an unprecedented debt load. As part of

11984-458: Was 127% at the end of 2007, versus 77% in 1990. While housing prices were increasing, consumers were saving less and both borrowing and spending more. Household debt grew from $ 705 billion at year end 1974, 60% of disposable personal income, to $ 7.4 trillion at yearend 2000, and finally to $ 14.5 trillion in midyear 2008, 134% of disposable personal income. During 2008, the typical US household owned 13 credit cards, with 40% of households carrying

12096-648: Was 9.8 times the December 2007 sales volume, the highest value of this ratio since 1981. Furthermore, nearly four million existing homes were for sale, of which roughly 2.2 million were vacant. This overhang of unsold homes lowered house prices. As prices declined, more homeowners were at risk of default or foreclosure. House prices are expected to continue declining until this inventory of unsold homes (an instance of excess supply) declines to normal levels. A report in January 2011 stated that U.S. home values dropped by 26% from their peak in June 2006 to November 2010, more than

12208-507: Was a market for low-quality private label securitizations. They argued that a "Giant Pool of Money" (represented by $ 70 trillion in worldwide fixed income investments) sought higher yields than those offered by U.S. Treasury bonds early in the decade. Further, this pool of money had roughly doubled in size from 2000 to 2007, yet the supply of relatively safe, income-generating investments had not grown as quickly. Investment banks on Wall Street answered this demand with financial innovation such as

12320-524: Was avoidable and was caused by: Widespread failures in financial regulation, including the Federal Reserve's failure to stem the tide of toxic mortgages; Dramatic breakdowns in corporate governance including too many financial firms acting recklessly and taking on too much risk; An explosive mix of excessive borrowing and risk by households and Wall Street that put the financial system on a collision course with crisis; Key policy makers ill prepared for

12432-631: Was more accurate than blaming the crisis on lower-income, subprime borrowers. A 2011 Fed study had a similar finding: "In states that experienced the largest housing booms and busts, at the peak of the market almost half of purchase mortgage originations were associated with investors. In part by apparently misreporting their intentions to occupy the property, investors took on more leverage, contributing to higher rates of default." The Fed study reported that mortgage originations to investors rose from 25% in 2000 to 45% in 2006, for Arizona, California, Florida, and Nevada overall, where housing price increases during

12544-409: Was more pronounced in coastal areas where the ability to build new housing was restricted by geography or land use restrictions. This housing bubble resulted in quite a few homeowners refinancing their homes at lower interest rates, or financing consumer spending by taking out second mortgages secured by the price appreciation. US household debt as a percentage of annual disposable personal income

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