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86-466: The system produced skewed results in the 2004 US presidential election and in the 2016 presidential election . As of 2018, member companies ABC News , CBS News , CNN , and NBC News contracts with Edison Research to conduct exit polling and a quick turnaround of nationwide vote tabulation. Starting in 2020, Reuters has used the NEP for U.S. presidential election results and exit polls. Fox News and

172-513: A large margin . Instead, the tipping-point state that year was Michigan , as it gave Reagan the decisive electoral vote. The difference in Michigan was nineteen percentage points, quite similar to Reagan's national margin of eighteen percent. Michigan would have been more relevant to the election results had the election been closer. Similarly, Barack Obama 's narrow victory in Indiana in

258-409: A paper trail , which would have made results easier to verify. Democrats also criticized various executives at Diebold, Inc. (the parent company of Diebold Election Systems) for their support of Bush's campaign, stating that it constituted a conflict of interest . Following these issues, California banned the use of Diebold's AccuVote TSX voting machines for elections in 2004. The 2004 election

344-458: A Democratic governor despite also voting for Republican Donald Trump . In Maine and Nebraska, the apportionment of electoral votes parallels that for U.S. senators and representatives . Two electoral votes go to the candidate who wins the plurality of the vote statewide, and a candidate gets an additional electoral vote for each congressional district in which they receive a plurality. Both of these states have relatively few electoral votes –

430-401: A higher rate with campaign visits, television advertising, and get out the vote efforts by party organizers and debates. According to Katrina vanden Heuvel, a journalist for The Nation , "four out of five" voters in the national election are "absolutely ignored". Since most states use a winner-takes-all arrangement, in which the candidate with the most votes in that state receives all of

516-644: A month, the forces of a coalition led by the United States entered Afghanistan , which had been sheltering Osama bin Laden , suspected mastermind of the September 11 attacks. The Taliban had been removed by December, although a long reconstruction would follow. The Bush administration then turned its attention to Iraq and argued the need to remove Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq had become urgent. Among

602-470: A more limited impact than Kerry's proposals. Kerry also attacked Bush for his policy on stem cell research . In 2001, the Bush administration restricted embryonic stem cell research to existing stem cell lines . Kerry stated that this restriction was a barrier to conducting important research. In July 2004, Bush announced his support for a Constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage , shortly before

688-496: A pre-election 2016 analysis, the thirteen most competitive states were Wisconsin , Pennsylvania , New Hampshire , Minnesota , Arizona , Georgia , Virginia , Florida , Michigan , Nevada , Colorado , North Carolina , and Maine . Nebraska's 2nd congressional district was (and is still as of 2020) also considered competitive. However, this projection was not specific to any particular election cycle , and assumed similar levels of support for both parties . Ten weeks before

774-580: A segment on 60 Minutes Wednesday , introducing what became known as the Killian documents . These documents were allegedly written by Jerry B. Killian, Bush's squadron commander, and they contained various allegations about Bush's service. Serious doubts about the documents' authenticity quickly emerged, leading CBS to appoint a review panel that eventually resulted in the firing of the news producer and other significant staffing changes. The Killian documents were eventually concluded to be forgeries. Kerry

860-478: A total of 4 and 5, respectively. Nebraska has split its votes since 1992, and Maine has done so since 1972. Each state has split its electoral votes only thrice since implementation: all three times Maine's second district gave one vote to Donald Trump, in 2016, 2020 and 2024; while Obama in 2008, Biden in 2020, and Harris in 2024 obtained the Nebraska's second district vote in their respective races. States where

946-407: A uniform shift among the states. Swing states have generally changed over time. For instance, the swing states of Ohio , Connecticut , Indiana , New Jersey and New York were key to the outcome of the 1888 election . Likewise, Illinois and Texas were key to the outcome of the 1960 election , Florida and New Hampshire were key in deciding the 2000 election , and Ohio was important during

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1032-492: A vote for president: 56.70% One faithless elector from Minnesota cast an electoral vote for John Edwards (written as John Ewards) for president. In Montana, Karen Sanchirico was listed on the ballot as Nader's running mate, not Camejo. In Alabama, Jan D. Pierce was Nader's running mate. In New York, Nader appeared on two distinct tickets, one with Camejo and one with Pierce. Because Arrin Hawkins , then aged 28,

1118-662: A winner since the current system was put in place. However, to avoid the premature leaking of data, collection is now done in a "Quarantine Room" at an undisclosed location in New York. All participants are stripped of outside communication devices until it is time for information to be released officially. This article about a business, industry, or trade-related organization is a stub . You can help Misplaced Pages by expanding it . 2004 United States presidential election George W. Bush Republican George W. Bush Republican Presidential elections were held in

1204-419: Is Georgia , which is a swing state because it has large populations of Republican-leaning evangelical whites and Democratic-leaning Black voters and urban college-educated professionals, thus campaigns often concentrate on voter turnout. Presidential campaigns and pundits seek to keep track of the shifting electoral landscape. While swing states in past elections can be determined simply by looking at how close

1290-619: Is regularly a swing state. Additionally, campaigns stopped mounting nationwide electoral efforts in the last few months near/at the ends of the blowout 2008 election, but rather targeted only a handful of battlegrounds. This is a chart of swing states using the methodology of Nate Silver for determining tipping point states, but including the other states in close contention in recent elections, ranked by margin of victory. In this method, states and DC are ordered by margin of victory, then tabulating which states were required to get to 270+ electoral votes in margin order. The tipping point state, and

1376-401: Is the last election in which the losing candidate won any of the following states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. This is also the last time a Republican was elected without carrying Maine's 2nd congressional district. This election is the only time in history that every Northeastern state voted Democratic and every former Confederate state voted Republican in the same election. Thus, Bush

1462-456: Is the only candidate to win without carrying any Northeastern electoral votes. Furthermore, this was the last election where both major party tickets consisted entirely of white men. This is also the last election where both parties flipped states and is also the most recent year when an incumbent candidate from either party would flip any states, with Bush taking the two which he did not win in 2000, in both New Mexico and Iowa. Until 2024 , this

1548-516: Is why a select group of states frequently receives a majority of the advertisements and candidate visits. The battlegrounds may change in certain election cycles and may be reflected in overall polling, demographics, and the ideological appeal of the nominees. In United States presidential elections , each state is free to decide the method by which its electors to the Electoral College will be chosen. To increase its voting power in

1634-567: The 2004 Democratic National Convention was held later that month in Boston . Heading into the convention, the Kerry–Edwards ticket unveiled its new slogan: a promise to make America "stronger at home and more respected in the world". Kerry made his Vietnam War experience the convention's prominent theme. The keynote address at the convention was delivered by Illinois state senator and U.S. Senate candidate and future president Barack Obama ;

1720-455: The 2004 election . Ohio has gained its reputation as a regular swing state after 1980, and did not vote against the winner between 1960 and 2020. In the 2024 election , Ohio and Florida had shifted rightward and were considered safe wins for Republicans. In fact, only three people have won the presidential election without winning Ohio since 1900: Franklin D. Roosevelt , John F. Kennedy , and Joe Biden . Areas considered battlegrounds in

1806-608: The 2008 election inaccurately portrays its status as a battleground. Obama lost Indiana by more than ten percentage points in the closer 2012 election , but triumphed anyway as Indiana's electoral votes were not directly needed for a coalition of 270 votes; the same scenario was with Missouri , where John McCain narrowly won by 4,000 votes in the 2008 election , but was won by Mitt Romney by nearly 10 points in 2012 election , indicating its GOP trend. Other lightly Republican leaning states such as North Carolina and Arizona were more plausible Democratic pick-ups in 2012. In 2012,

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1892-635: The 2016 election , Hillary Clinton overperformed in educated, suburban states such as Colorado and Virginia compared to past Democratic candidates, while Donald Trump performed above standard Republican expectations in the Rust Belt , such as Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In addition, gradual shifts can occur within states due to changes in demography, geography, or population patterns. For example, many currently Republican states, like Arkansas , Missouri , Tennessee , and West Virginia , had been battlegrounds as recently as 2004. According to

1978-943: The 2020 election were Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine's 2nd congressional district , Michigan, Minnesota , Nebraska's 2nd congressional district , Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin, with Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin constituting the "Big Five" most likely to decide the Electoral College. In the end, Joe Biden won Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, NE-02, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while Donald Trump won ME-02, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas. Campaign strategies are not universal in swing states. Statistical analytics website FiveThirtyEight notes that some swing states, such as New Hampshire , swing because they have many moderate, independent swing voters, and campaigning puts an emphasis on persuading voters. Contrasting this

2064-605: The Associated Press formerly were part of the Pool, but left in 2017 due to plans to conduct their exit polls and other experimental alternatives to gauge voter sentiment. These two networks have since joined AP VoteCast . The organizers of the pool say that the purpose of their quick collection of exit poll data is not to determine if an election is flawed, but rather to project winners of races. Despite past problems, they note that all of their members have correctly called

2150-484: The Electoral College , as Trump, the Republican nominee, won the tipping-point state of Wisconsin by less than 1 percent. In 2020, Joe Biden won the popular vote by over 4 percentage points but won the tipping point state of Pennsylvania by only 1 percent. This shows Donald Trump could win the election even if he lost the popular vote by over 3 percent and would have picked up Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin with

2236-585: The Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary . These wins strengthened Kerry's previously weak campaign. By March 11, Kerry had received enough delegates to win the nomination. Other major candidates included North Carolina senator John Edwards and retired U.S. Army general Wesley Clark . Kerry asked Republican senator John McCain to be his running mate but McCain turned down his offer. On July 6, Kerry selected Edwards as his running mate, shortly before

2322-550: The Media Fund , and America Coming Together . These groups were active throughout the campaign season, spending a record $ 556 million for all elections in 2004. The Stand by Your Ad provision of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act required political advertisements on television to include a verbal disclaimer identifying the organization or campaign responsible for the advertisement. This provision

2408-644: The South , including Alabama , Mississippi , Louisiana , Arkansas , Tennessee , Kentucky , South Carolina , Missouri , Texas , and West Virginia , as well as Alaska . Democrats usually take the Mid-Atlantic states, including New York , New Jersey , Maryland , Virginia , and Delaware , New England , particularly Vermont , Massachusetts , Rhode Island , and Connecticut , the West Coast states of California , Oregon , Washington , Hawaii , and

2494-928: The Southwestern states of Colorado and New Mexico , as well as the Great Lakes states of Illinois and Minnesota . However, some states that consistently vote for one party at the presidential level occasionally elect a governor of the opposite party; this is currently the case in Vermont and Virginia which have Republican governors, as well as in Kentucky and Kansas , which currently have Democratic governors. Even in presidential election years, voters may split presidential and gubernatorial tickets. In 2020, this occurred in Vermont and New Hampshire , which elected Republican governors even as Democrat Joe Biden won both states, while North Carolina elected

2580-598: The United States on November 2, 2004. Incumbent Republican President George W. Bush and his running mate , incumbent Vice President Dick Cheney , were re-elected to a second term. They narrowly defeated the Democratic ticket of John Kerry , a senator from Massachusetts , and his running mate John Edwards , a senator from North Carolina . Bush and Cheney were renominated by their party with no difficulty. Former Vermont governor Howard Dean emerged as

2666-438: The United States budget deficit by capping government spending while ending various tax breaks for businesses. Kerry also supported tax credits for businesses that hire additional workers. Bush attacked Kerry for his economic proposals, stating that they would cause Americans to pay higher taxes. Bush also attacked Kerry for previously supporting tax raises, such as a proposed increase on the federal gas tax . Bush defended

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2752-627: The faithless elector was. It is not even known whether the vote for Edwards was deliberate or unintentional; the Republican Secretary of State and several of the Democratic electors have expressed the opinion that this was an accident. During the campaign and as the results came in on the night of the election, there was much focus on Ohio , Pennsylvania , and Florida . These three swing states were seen as evenly divided, and with each casting 20 electoral votes or more, they had

2838-564: The official Federal Election Commission report . The column labeled "Margin" shows Bush's margin of victory over Kerry (the margin is negative for states and districts won by Kerry). Although Guam has no votes in the Electoral College, it has held a straw poll for its presidential preference since 1980. In 2004, the results were Bush 21,490 (64.1%), Kerry 11,781 (35.1%), Nader 196 (0.58%) and Badnarik 67 (0.2%). Maine and Nebraska each allowed for their electoral votes to be split between candidates. In both states, two electoral votes were awarded to

2924-511: The war on terror and the 2003 invasion of Iraq . Bush presented himself as a decisive leader and attacked Kerry as a " flip-flopper ". Kerry criticized Bush's conduct of the Iraq War , despite having voted for it himself. Domestic issues were debated as well, including the economy and jobs, health care , abortion , same-sex marriage , and embryonic stem cell research. Bush won by a narrow margin of 35 electoral votes and took 50.7% of

3010-803: The 2020 presidential election, statistical analytics website FiveThirtyEight noted that the electoral map is "undergoing a series of changes", with some states moving rightward, other states moving leftward, and two states (Florida, until the 2020 election, and North Carolina ) described as "perennial" swing states. Likewise, an analysis of results of the 2018 midterms indicated that the "battleground states" are changing, with Colorado and Ohio becoming less competitive and more Democratic and Republican, respectively, while Georgia and Arizona were slowly turning into swing states. The Electoral College encourages political campaigners to focus most of their efforts on courting voters in swing states. States in which polling shows no clear favorite are usually targeted at

3096-426: The Electoral College by only 5 votes. In contrast, 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by over 2 percentage points. This meant that Donald Trump would have picked up New Hampshire , Nevada , and Minnesota if the popular vote had been tied, assuming a uniform shift among the battleground states. On the other hand, Clinton would have had to win the popular vote by at least 3 points to win

3182-446: The Electoral College system , every state, with the exceptions of Maine and Nebraska , has adopted a winner-take-all system, where the candidate who wins the most popular votes in a state wins all of that state's electoral votes. The expectation was that the candidates would look after the interests of the states with the most electoral votes. However, in practice, most voters tend not to change party allegiance from one election to

3268-613: The Electoral College. These forecasts use a variety of factors to estimate the likelihood of each candidate winning the Electoral College electors for that state. Most election predictors use the following ratings: Below is a list of states considered by one or more forecast to be competitive; states that are deemed to be "safe" or "solid" by forecasters The Cook Political Report , The New York Times , and CNN . Source (Electoral and Popular Vote): Federal Elections Commission Electoral and Popular Vote Summary Voting age population: 215,664,000 Percent of voting age population casting

3354-617: The Iraq War was a mistake and a diversion from terrorism in other nations such as Afghanistan. After the election, exit polls found that foreign policy concerns were the most important issues for voters. Health savings accounts (HSAs) were introduced in 2004 as part of the Medicare Prescription Drug, Improvement, and Modernization Act , signed by Bush in December 2003. As part of his 2004 campaign, Bush supported

3440-506: The Iraq War, arguing that it was necessary to stop terrorism. He also said that the United States had made progress stopping terrorism in other nations. Bush attacked Kerry for opposing the Iraq War after voting to authorize it in 2002, characterizing the shift as one of many flip-flops by Kerry. Kerry argued that Bush had misled the American public in pursuing the Iraq War, noting that no illegal weapons had been found in Iraq. He said that

3526-543: The Senate voted on the amendment. Although Kerry stated that he opposed same-sex marriage, he also opposed the amendment, saying that the legality of same-sex marriage should be decided by individual states. The Senate vote failed on July 14. During the campaign, Bush was accused of failing to fulfill his required service in the Texas Air National Guard . A scandal occurred at CBS News after they aired

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3612-448: The afternoon of the day after the election, Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell announced that there were roughly 135,000 provisional ballots remaining. Kerry's campaign believed that it was statistically impossible to erase Bush's lead. Faced with this announcement, Kerry conceded defeat. Bush became the first Republican to ever win without carrying New Hampshire, and the first to win the popular vote without Vermont and Illinois. This

3698-550: The aircraft carrier USS  Abraham Lincoln , in a Lockheed S-3 Viking , where he gave a speech announcing the end of "major combat operations" in the Iraq War . Bush was able to ward off any serious challenge to the Republican nomination. Senator Lincoln Chafee from Rhode Island considered challenging Bush on an anti-war platform in New Hampshire but decided not to run after the capture of Saddam Hussein in December 2003. On March 10, 2004, Bush officially attained

3784-528: The beginning, but other major powers including China, France, Germany, and Russia remained unconvinced that Iraq was a threat and refused to allow passage of a UN Security Council resolution to authorize the use of force. Iraq permitted UN weapon inspectors in November 2002, who were continuing their work to assess the WMD claim when the Bush administration decided to proceed with war without UN authorization and told

3870-468: The degree seen in the 2000 presidential election . Bush won Florida by a five-percent margin, a significant improvement over his razor-thin victory margin in the state four years earlier which led to a legal challenge in Bush v. Gore . This was the first presidential election since 1988 where the Republican nominee won the popular vote . As of 2024 , this was the most recent presidential election in which

3956-515: The early front-runner in the 2004 Democratic Party presidential primaries , but Kerry won the first set of primaries in January, and then clinched his party's nomination in March after a series of primary victories. Kerry chose Edwards, who was the runner-up in the primaries, to be his running mate. Foreign policy was the dominant theme throughout the election campaign, particularly Bush's handling of

4042-569: The election has a close result become less meaningful in landslide elections. Instead, states which vote similarly to the national vote proportions are more likely to appear as the closest states. For example, the states in the 1984 election with the tightest results were Minnesota and Massachusetts . A campaign strategy centered on them, however, would not have been meaningful in the Electoral College , as Democratic nominee Walter Mondale required victories in many more states than Massachusetts, and Republican Ronald Reagan still would have won by

4128-471: The election, excerpts of a video of Osama bin Laden addressing the American people were broadcast on al Jazeera . In his remarks, bin Laden mentions the September 11 attacks , and taunted Bush over his response to them. In the days following the video's release, Bush's lead over Kerry increased by several points. Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts of the composition of

4214-428: The expansion of HSAs. He proposed tax cuts to help Americans purchase their own health insurance. He also proposed a plan that would allow small businesses to purchase health insurance in large groups. Kerry's health care proposals included government subsidies for businesses that provide health insurance and the expansion of government-run health care programs. Health policy experts stated that Bush's proposals would have

4300-418: The face of danger." In the final months before the election, Kerry's campaign focused on domestic issues such as the economy and health care. Kerry's campaign managers believed that Kerry had an advantage on domestic issues. Bush's campaign also focused on increasing voter turnout among conservatives. According to one exit poll, people who voted for Bush cited the issues of terrorism and traditional values as

4386-601: The inspectors to leave the country. The United States invaded Iraq on March 20, 2003, along with a " coalition of the willing " that consisted of additional troops from the United Kingdom, and to a lesser extent, from Australia and Poland. Within about three weeks, the invasion caused the collapse of both the Iraqi government and its armed forces ; however, the U.S. and allied forces failed to find any weapon of mass destruction in Iraq. Nevertheless, on May 1, Bush landed on

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4472-500: The losing candidate in the popular vote, as well as the first since 1980 that Maryland did so, and the first since 1948 that Delaware did so. Bush's 2.4% popular vote margin is the smallest ever for a re-elected president surpassing the 1812 election. Bush won three states that have not voted Republican since: Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico. Virginia had voted Republican in every election from 1968 to 2004 but conversely has voted Democratic in every election since 2008. In contrast, this

4558-485: The most important factors in their decision. Kerry supporters cited the war in Iraq, the economy and jobs, and health care. Tax cuts were passed in 2001 and 2003 under the Bush administration with Bush's support. Kerry voted against these tax cuts. During the 2004 campaign, Bush praised these tax cuts, stating that they helped to grow the economy. On the other hand, Kerry attacked Bush for failing to create jobs under his presidency. Kerry stated that he wanted to reduce

4644-412: The nation. Had the election come out closer, Romney's path to victory would probably have involved also winning Wisconsin , Nevada , New Hampshire , or Iowa , as these states had comparable margins to Colorado, and had been battlegrounds during the election. As many mathematical analysts have noted, however, the state voting in a fashion most similar to that of the nation as a whole is not necessarily

4730-416: The national popular vote. In addition, this was also the most recent presidential election where a candidate from either party would win fewer than 20 states, until the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris (like John Kerry) was held to winning only 19 in 2024 . This was also the last presidential election in which the winning ticket did not have either Joe Biden or Donald Trump on it. George W. Bush won

4816-425: The next 10 states with close margins on each side, are shown as the swing states in retrospect, along with the "bias" which is the difference between the final margin in the tipping point state and final popular vote margin. This takes into account inherent electoral college advantages; for example, Michigan was the closest state in 2016 by result, and Nevada was the closest state to the national popular vote result, but

4902-439: The next, leading presidential candidates to concentrate their limited time and resources campaigning in those states that they believe they can swing towards them or stop states from swinging away from them, and not to spend time or resources in states they expect to win or lose. Because of the electoral system, the campaigns are less concerned with increasing a candidate's national popular vote, tending instead to concentrate on

4988-533: The number of delegates needed to be nominated at the 2004 Republican National Convention in New York City . He accepted the nomination on September 2, 2004, and retained Vice President Dick Cheney as his running mate . During the convention and throughout the campaign, Bush focused on two themes: defending America against terrorism and building an ownership society . The ownership society included allowing people to invest some of their Social Security in

5074-502: The other was 2000, when Bush was first elected. Swing state In United States politics , a swing state (also known as battleground state , toss-up state , or purple state ) is any state that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican candidate in a statewide election, most often referring to presidential elections , by a swing in votes. These states are usually targeted by both major-party campaigns , especially in competitive elections. Meanwhile,

5160-494: The popular vote only in those states which will provide the electoral votes it needs to win the election, as many successful candidates have lost the popular vote but won the electoral college. In past electoral results, Republican candidates would have expected to easily win most of the mountain states and Great Plains , such as Idaho , Wyoming , the Dakotas , Montana , Utah , Kansas , Oklahoma , and Nebraska , most of

5246-406: The popular vote. Bush is the seventh Republican to have won re-election to a consecutive term, along with Abraham Lincoln , Ulysses S. Grant , William McKinley , Dwight D. Eisenhower , Richard Nixon , and Ronald Reagan . The 2004 election had the highest turnout rate among eligible voters since 1968 . This is one of only four U.S. presidential elections in which the winner did not carry any of

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5332-517: The popular vote. Bush swept the South and the mountain states and took the crucial swing states of Ohio , Iowa , and New Mexico , the last two flipping Republican. Although Kerry flipped New Hampshire , Bush won both more electoral votes and states than in 2000. Ohio was the tipping-point state , and was considered to be the state that allowed Bush to win reelection. Some aspects of the election process were subject to controversy , although not to

5418-516: The power to decide the election. As the final results came in, Kerry took Pennsylvania and then Bush took Florida, focusing all attention on Ohio. The morning after the election, the winner was still undetermined. The result in Ohio would decide the winner, although the results in New Mexico and Iowa were also undetermined. Bush led in Ohio, but the state was still counting provisional ballots. In

5504-503: The presidency in 2000 after the U.S. Supreme Court 's decision in Bush v. Gore remanded the case to the Florida Supreme Court , which declared there was not sufficient time to hold a recount without violating the U.S. Constitution . Just eight months into his presidency, the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 , suddenly transformed Bush into a wartime president. Bush's approval ratings surged to near 90%. Within

5590-773: The speech was well received, and it elevated Obama's status within the Democratic Party. There were four other presidential tickets on the ballot in a number of states totaling enough electoral votes to have a theoretical possibility of winning a majority in the Electoral College . They were: Ahead of the 2004 election, some states implemented electronic voting systems. Critics raised several issues about voting machines, particularly those made by Diebold Election Systems . Cybersecurity professionals found security vulnerabilities in Diebold machines. Voting machines made by several companies were also criticized for their lack of

5676-544: The state cast ballots for Edwards for vice president (Edwards's name was spelled correctly on all ballots for vice president). This was the first time in U.S. history that an elector had cast a vote for the same person to be both president and vice president. Electoral balloting in Minnesota was performed by secret ballot, and none of the electors admitted to casting the Edwards vote for president, so it may never be known who

5762-445: The state's electoral votes, there is a clear incentive to focus almost exclusively on only a few undecided states. In contrast, many states with large populations such as California, Texas and New York have in recent elections been considered "safe" for a particular party, and therefore not a priority for campaign visits and money. Meanwhile, twelve of the thirteen smallest states are thought of as safe for either party – only New Hampshire

5848-460: The stated reasons were that Saddam's regime had tried to acquire nuclear material and had not properly accounted for biological and chemical material it was known to have previously possessed. Both the possession of these weapons of mass destruction (WMD), and the failure to account for them, would violate the UN sanctions . The assertion about WMD was hotly advanced by the Bush administration from

5934-409: The states of North Carolina, Florida, Ohio , and Virginia were decided by a margin of less than five percent. However, none of them were considered the tipping-point state, as Romney would not have been able to defeat Obama even if he had emerged victorious in all of them. Virginia was most in-step with the rest of the country. Virginians voted for Obama by just under 4 points, almost the exact same as

6020-519: The states that regularly lean to a single party are known as "safe states" (or more specifically as "red states" and "blue states" depending on the partisan leaning), as it is generally assumed that one candidate has a base of support from which a sufficient share of the electorate can be drawn without significant investment or effort by the campaign. Due to the winner-take-all method that most states use to determine their presidential electors , candidates often campaign only in competitive states, which

6106-510: The stock market, increasing home and stock ownership, and encouraging more people to buy their own health insurance . The 2004 Democratic Party presidential primaries took place from January 14 to June 8, 2004, to select the Democratic Party 's nominee for president. Before the primaries, Vermont governor Howard Dean was a favorite to win the nomination; however, Massachusetts senator John Kerry won victories in two early races:

6192-476: The three Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; the others were 2000, 1916 and 1884. Source: CNN exit poll ( 13,660 surveyed ) This is one of only two U.S. presidential elections, held since the Democrats and Republicans became the two major parties in U.S. politics, in which the winner did not carry any of the three Rust Belt states of Michigan , Pennsylvania , and Wisconsin ;

6278-406: The time, Bush also received the most popular votes in history, a record which would be broken in the 2008 presidential election . Bush also became the only incumbent president to win reelection after previously losing the popular vote. This is also the last time that a male Democratic presidential candidate lost an election, as well as the only election between 1992 and 2020 where a Republican won

6364-457: The tipping-point state. The presidential election in 2016 was a notable example, as it featured one of the largest historical disparities between the Electoral College and popular vote. Additionally, this "split" in votes was much larger in both directions than in previous elections, such as the 2000 election . In that election, Vice President Al Gore won the popular vote by less than 1 percent, while incoming president George W. Bush won

6450-404: The tipping-point. For example, if a candidate wins only a few states but does so by a wide margin, while the other candidate's victories are much closer, the popular vote would likely favor the former. However, although the vast majority of the states leaned to the latter candidate in comparison to the entire country, many of them would end up having voted for the loser in greater numbers than did

6536-491: The vote was in each state, determining states likely to be swing states in future elections requires estimation and projection based on previous election results, opinion polling, political trends, recent developments since the previous election, and any strengths or weaknesses of the particular candidate involved. The swing-state "map" transforms between each election cycle, depending on the candidates and their policies, sometimes dramatically and sometimes subtly. For example, in

6622-428: The winner of the statewide race and one electoral vote was awarded to the winner of each congressional district. Red font color denotes those won by Republican President George W. Bush; blue denotes states won by Democrat John Kerry. States where margin of victory was under 1% (22 electoral votes): States where margin of victory was more than 1% but less than 5% (93 electoral votes): States where margin of victory

6708-406: The winning candidate won fewer than 300 electoral votes. It is also the most recent in which the Republican candidate won Colorado , New Mexico , or Virginia . This remains the most recent presidential election in which both major party candidates flipped at least one state and the only presidential election since 1984 in which the incumbent Republican president won a second consecutive term. At

6794-424: Was constitutionally ineligible to serve as vice president, Margaret Trowe replaced her on the ballot in some states. James Harris replaced Calero on certain other states' ballots. Of the 3,154 counties/districts/independent cities making returns, Bush won the most popular votes in 2,568 (81.42%) while Kerry carried 586 (18.58%). The following table records the official vote tallies for each state as reported by

6880-535: Was accused by the Swift Vets and POWs for Truth of distorting his military service in Vietnam. The group challenged the legitimacy of each of the combat medals awarded to Kerry by the U.S. Navy , and the disposition of his discharge. The organization spent $ 22.4 million in advertisements against Kerry. After the election, political analysts described their advertising campaign as effective. The term swiftboating

6966-489: Was intended to force campaigns to take responsibility for negative advertisements . Campaign strategists criticized this requirement, stating that it would waste time and cause voters to be confused. Bush focused his campaign on national security, presenting himself as a decisive leader and contrasted Kerry as a " flip-flopper ." This strategy was designed to convey to American voters the idea that Bush could be trusted to be tough on terrorism while Kerry would be "uncertain in

7052-484: Was more than 5% but less than 10% (149 electoral votes): Counties with highest percent of vote (Republican) Counties with highest percent of vote (Democratic) Money spent Source: FEC One elector in Minnesota cast a ballot for president with the name of "John Ewards" [ sic ] written on it. The Electoral College officials certified this ballot as a vote for Edwards for president. The remaining nine electors cast ballots for Kerry. All ten electors in

7138-730: Was the first to be affected by the campaign finance reforms mandated by the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002. The act created restrictions on fundraising by political parties and candidates. A large number of independent 527 groups were created to bypass these restrictions. Named for a section of the Internal Revenue Code , these groups were able to raise large amounts of money for various political causes as long as they did not coordinate their activities with political campaigns. Examples of 527s include Swift Boat Veterans for Truth , MoveOn.org ,

7224-410: Was the last time Nevada voted for the Republican presidential candidate, and the only presidential election since 1988 in which the Republican nominee won the popular vote, and it remains the only presidential election since 1984 in which the incumbent Republican president won a second consecutive term. Bush also became the only incumbent president to win immediate re-election after previously losing

7310-464: Was the last time a president was re-elected to a consecutive term with a higher share of the electoral vote. Bush carried Colorado despite the state being Kerry's birth state. Bush simultaneously lost his own birth state of Connecticut, making this the only election since 1864 where neither candidate carried their birth state. This election was the first time since 1976 that New Jersey, Connecticut, Vermont, Maine, Illinois, Michigan, and California voted for

7396-509: Was used during the campaign to describe the organization's negative advertising, which Democrats saw as unfair. It was also used after the campaign to generally describe a harsh attack by a political opponent that is dishonest, personal and unfair. Three presidential debates and one vice presidential debate were organized by the Commission on Presidential Debates , and held in the autumn of 2004. (Millions) On October 29, four days before

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