62-534: The Sheffield Trades and Labour Council , usually known as the Sheffield Trades Council , is a labour organisation uniting trade unionists in Sheffield . The earliest recorded attempt to found an alliance of trade unions in the city is the "Sheffield Mechanical Trades Association", created in 1822 to bring together six cutlery trades. In 1830, a "Trades General Union" was created, with
124-674: A closed shop policy backed by law. Mundella and George Hadfield , the other official Liberal candidate, proved successful. The repercussions of the Outrages left the Association moribund, but in October 1872 the trades council reconstituted itself as the Sheffield Federated Trades Council , with William Rolley as Chairman, James Pryor as Secretary and Edward Memmott as Treasurer. The following year,
186-506: A 1974 article by The New York Times , Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Julius Shiskin suggested that a rough translation of the bureau's qualitative definition of a recession into a quantitative one that almost anyone can use might run like this: Over the years, some commentators dropped most of Shiskin's "recession-spotting" criteria for the simplistic rule-of-thumb of a decline in real GNI for two consecutive quarters. In
248-409: A balance sheet recession would be appropriate. However, Krugman argued that monetary policy could also affect savings behavior, as inflation or credible promises of future inflation (generating negative real interest rates) would encourage less savings. In other words, people would tend to spend more rather than save if they believe inflation is on the horizon. In more technical terms, Krugman argues that
310-513: A comprehensive assessment of the depth and breadth of economic downturns, enabling policymakers to devise more effective strategies for economic stabilization and recovery. Recessions in the United Kingdom are generally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, as measured by the seasonal adjusted quarter-on-quarter figures for real GDP . The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) defines
372-700: A dispute with S. Harrison, owner of the Sheffield Times newspaper, who wished to reduce their wages. When members of the Journeyman Printers' Society refused to accept the reduced terms, Harrison recruited non-union labour from London and attempted to prevent any of his remaining workers belonging to a union. The union branch printed a statement, "The Press Trampling on the Rights of Labour", in response to which, Harrison took up proceedings for libel , claiming £2,000 in damages. Charles Bagshaw,
434-463: A key demand component of GDP, fell enormously (22% of GDP) between 1990 and its peak decline in 2003. Japanese firms overall became net savers after 1998, as opposed to borrowers. Koo argues that it was massive fiscal stimulus (borrowing and spending by the government) that offset this decline and enabled Japan to maintain its level of GDP. In his view, this avoided a U.S. type Great Depression , in which U.S. GDP fell by 46%. He argued that monetary policy
496-502: A liquidity trap is expanding the money supply via quantitative easing or other techniques in which money is effectively printed to purchase assets, thereby creating inflationary expectations that cause savers to begin spending again. Government stimulus spending and mercantilist policies to stimulate exports and reduce imports are other techniques to stimulate demand. He estimated in March 2010 that developed countries representing 70% of
558-875: A local branch of the British Socialist Party , and the ILP reaffiliated the following year. At the start of World War I , both Trades Councils supported Army recruitment campaigns, but from 1916, the Trades and Labour opposed the war. In 1917, it passed a motion congratulating the Russian people on the February Revolution , and in December, another congratulating "the Socialist Proletariat of Russia on their present achievement (i.e.
620-542: A low of around 2,400 in 1863. The Association actively supported the London Builders' Strike of 1859–60, which brought about the foundation of the London Trades Council . It also supported a Bill to create courts for compulsory arbitration, working closely with Sheffield's Members of Parliament, George Hadfield and John Arthur Roebuck . In 1864, the grinders' union issued a wage claim. This
682-617: A motion welcoming the Soviet invasion of Poland. This threat was lifted after President C. S. Darvill, who had been expelled from the Labour Party, was removed from office. Communist Party of Great Britain (CPGB) members were then banned from participating on the council, but the ban was finally lifted in 1969. In 1973, the city Labour Party was split from the Trades Council, against the organisation's opposition. Despite this,
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#1732791411637744-833: A recession as a period of at least two years during which the cumulative output gap reaches at least 2% of GDP, and the output gap is at least 1% for at least one year. Recession can be defined as decline of GDP per capita instead of decline of total GDP. A recession encompasses multiple attributes that often occur simultaneously and encompasses declines in component measures of economic activity, such as GDP, including consumption, investment, government spending, and net export activity. These summary measures are indicative of underlying drivers such as employment levels and skills, household savings rates, corporate investment decisions, interest rates, demographics, and government policies (Smith, 2018; Johnson & Thompson, 2020). By examining these factors comprehensively, economists gain insights into
806-493: A recession including the availability heuristic , the money illusion , and normalcy bias . Excessive levels of indebtedness or the bursting of a real estate or financial asset price bubble can cause what is called a "balance sheet recession". This occurs when large numbers of consumers or corporations pay down debt (i.e., save) rather than spend or invest, which slows the economy. The term balance sheet derives from an accounting identity that holds that assets must always equal
868-427: A recession. Economist Hyman Minsky also described a "paradox of deleveraging" as financial institutions that have too much leverage (debt relative to equity) cannot all de-leverage simultaneously without significant declines in the value of their assets. In April 2009, U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen discussed these paradoxes: "Once this massive credit crunch hit, it didn't take long before we were in
930-619: A recession. The recession, in turn, deepened the credit crunch as demand and employment fell, and credit losses of financial institutions surged. Indeed, we have been in the grips of precisely this adverse feedback loop for more than a year. A process of balance sheet deleveraging has spread to nearly every corner of the economy. Consumers are pulling back on purchases, especially durable goods, to build their savings. Businesses are cancelling planned investments and laying off workers to preserve cash. And financial institutions are shrinking assets to bolster capital and improve their chances of weathering
992-459: A reliable recession predictor. The curve began re-steepening toward positive territory in June 2024, as it had at other points during that inversion; in every previous inversion they examined; Deutsche Bank analysts found the curve had re-steepened before a recession began. The following variables and indicators are used by economists, like e.g. Paul Krugman or Joseph Stiglitz , to try to predict
1054-415: A self-reinforcing downward cycle, bringing about or worsening a recession. Consumer confidence is one measure used to evaluate economic sentiment. The term animal spirits has been used to describe the psychological factors underlying economic activity. Keynes, in his The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money , was the first economist to claim that such emotional mindsets significantly affect
1116-519: Is a widespread drop in spending (an adverse demand shock ). This may be triggered by various events, such as a financial crisis , an external trade shock, an adverse supply shock , the bursting of an economic bubble , or a large-scale anthropogenic or natural disaster (e.g. a pandemic ). There is no official definition of a recession, according to the IMF . In the United States , a recession
1178-690: Is defined as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the market, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP , real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales." The European Union has adopted a similar definition. In the United Kingdom and Canada , a recession is defined as negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters. Governments usually respond to recessions by adopting expansionary macroeconomic policies , such as increasing money supply and decreasing interest rates or increasing government spending and decreasing taxation . In
1240-522: Is not an official designation" and that instead, "The designation of a recession is the province of a committee of experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research". The European Union, akin to the NBER's methodology, has embraced a definition of recession that integrates GDP alongside a spectrum of macroeconomic indicators, including employment and various other metrics. This approach allows for
1302-627: Is referred to as an economic depression , although some argue that their causes and cures can be different. As an informal shorthand, economists sometimes refer to different recession shapes , such as V-shaped , U-shaped , L-shaped and W-shaped recessions. The type and shape of recessions are distinctive. In the US, v-shaped, or short-and-sharp contractions followed by rapid and sustained recovery, occurred in 1954 and 1990–1991; U-shaped (prolonged slump) in 1974–1975, and W-shaped, or double-dip recessions in 1949 and 1980–1982. Japan's 1993–1994 recession
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#17327914116371364-541: The (inverted) yield curve appear to be more useful to predict a recession ahead of time than other variables, no single variable has proven to be an always reliable predictor whether recessions will actually (soon) appear, let alone predicting their sharpness and severity in terms of duration. The longest and deepest Treasury yield curve inversion in history began in July 2022, as the Federal Reserve sharply increased
1426-514: The 1868 general election , Dronfield had on behalf of the trades council persuaded Anthony John Mundella to stand in the Sheffield constituency , believing that the Liberal would act in the interests of Labour. However, some dissident trade unionists, including Broadhead, supported John Arthur Roebuck and the Conservative E. P. Price instead, on the grounds that they claimed to support
1488-538: The Bolshevik Revolution ) and wishing them success in their endeavour to build up a real Socialist Commonwealth". A strong shop stewards' movement , with J. T. Murphy a leading figure, and a wave of strikes strengthened the position of the Trades and Labour. In 1920, it protested against the Labour Party's refusal to permit the Communist Party of Great Britain (CPGB) to affiliate. By 1920,
1550-650: The Chartists , although it did actively oppose the Corn Laws . In 1843, the Alliance formed the "United Trades Union", but this undertook little activity and dissolved in 1847 after the Table Knife Hafters Society borrowed £750 of its funds, then withdrew without repaying the loan. The Alliance was re-constituted in 1844 to counter a new employers' organisation. The new group, also known as
1612-651: The Labour Representation Committee , but did not agree to the foundation of a local organisation until 1903. In 1904, this became the "Sheffield Trades Council and Labour Representation Committee", an auxiliary of the Trades Council, with the Building Trades Federation , the ILP and the Sheffield Socialist Society also represented. While this Committee dropped "Trades Council" from its name again
1674-682: The United States , the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is generally seen as the authority for dating US recessions. The NBER, a private economic research organization, defines an economic recession as: "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP , real income , employment, industrial production , and wholesale - retail sales ". The NBER also explains that: "a recession begins when
1736-450: The fed funds rate to combat the 2021–2023 inflation surge . Despite widespread predictions by economists and market analysts of an imminent recession, none had materialized by July 2024, economic growth remained steady, and a Reuters survey of economists that month found they expected the economy to continue growing for the next two years. An earlier survey of bond market strategists found a majority no longer believed an inverted curve to be
1798-608: The private sector as it pays down its debt. For example, economist Richard Koo wrote that Japan's "Great Recession" that began in 1990 was a "balance sheet recession". It was triggered by a collapse in land and stock prices, which caused Japanese firms to have negative equity , meaning their assets were worth less than their liabilities. Despite zero interest rates and expansion of the money supply to encourage borrowing, Japanese corporations in aggregate opted to pay down their debts from their own business earnings rather than borrow to invest as firms typically do. Corporate investment,
1860-696: The "United Trades of Sheffield" elected John Drury , leader of the Razor Grinders as its Secretary. He persuaded Thomas Duncombe to become the President of a new National Association of United Trades for the Protection of Labour , but neither body had proved lasting. A large debt was left following the groups' collapse, and fear of inheriting this discouraged the formation of a replacement organisation for some years. The organisation originated in 1858, when many Sheffield compositors were involved in
1922-517: The 1920s, the Trades Council was prominent in supporting strikers, such as during the engineering lockout of 1922, and measures to benefit the large numbers of unemployed workers. It also published Sheffield Forward , and provided a twenty-four-hour Central Committee to organise the city's workers during the General Strike . The organisation continued to move to the left, and was threatened with disaffiliation by Labour in 1940, after it passed
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1984-598: The Sheffield area, and its executive was the same as that of the Sheffield Association. A series of violent attacks on non-trade unionists by a small minority of unionist, the " Sheffield Outrages ", ran through 1866, so in November, the trades council joined with the London Trades Council to call for a government enquiry. The Association formed a Trade Union Defence Committee, led by George Austin. At
2046-620: The Trades Council drew up an electoral agreement with the Liberal selected, a delegate meeting instead voted to support the Independent Labour Party (ILP) candidate. Membership of the Trades Council reached 16,000 by 1892, and by this point, a majority of its affiliated membership worked in the heavy trades. Hobson and Uttley were elected to the national Industrial Union of Employers and Employed in 1895, but this organisation soon dissolved. The Trades Council affiliated to
2108-627: The Trades and Labour represented almost 60,000 workers. The Federated's membership had not grown, and remained at around 15,000. It also remained a far less radical organisation, and had readily joined the Alliance of Employers and Employees . After many attempts to reunite the two, they finally reunited in July 1920 as the Sheffield Federated Trades and Labour Council , under the Presidency of Gertrude Wilkinson . During
2170-490: The aim of uniting workers and works owners; this dissolved the following year. From the mid-1830s, there were occasional meetings open to all trade unionists in the town. Around 1838, an "Alliance of Organised Trades" was formed, producing the first permanent trades council-style body in Sheffield. This decided not to offer evidence into the Government inquiry into trade unions, and also voted against 20-12 against joining
2232-480: The complex dynamics that contribute to economic downturns and can formulate effective strategies for mitigating their impact (Anderson, 2019; Patel, 2017). Economist Richard C. Koo wrote that under ideal conditions, a country's economy should have the household sector as net savers and the corporate sector as net borrowers, with the government budget nearly balanced and net exports near zero. A severe (GDP down by 10%) or prolonged (three or four years) recession
2294-548: The compositors' leader William Dronfield was elected as the trades council's first Secretary, a post he held until 1867; Charles Bagshaw became the first President, and William Broadhead the Treasurer. Robert Applegarth , George Austin and Joseph Rolley were also elected to the Executive. The new organisation declared itself dedicated to "the establishment and perpetuation of a more intimate relation between all branches of
2356-643: The country, and having received some, it agreed a proposal from the Wolverhampton Trades Council to hold a national conference. The strike was lost in June, but the conference went ahead. Dronfield invited delegates from across Britain to Sheffield on 17 July 1866. 138 attended, representing around 200,000 members. The meeting resolved to found a national organisation of trade unions, the United Kingdom Alliance of Organised Trades . Most of its Executive Council came from
2418-410: The current storm. Once again, Minsky understood this dynamic. He spoke of the paradox of deleveraging, in which precautions that may be smart for individuals and firms—and indeed essential to return the economy to a normal state—nevertheless magnify the distress of the economy as a whole." There are many reasons why recessions happen. One overall reason can be lack of demand due to sharp developments in
2480-510: The decline in property values experienced during the subprime mortgage crisis. Further, reduced consumption due to higher household leverage can account for a significant decline in employment levels. Policies that help reduce mortgage debt or household leverage could therefore have stimulative effects (Smith & Johnson, 2012). A liquidity trap is a Keynesian theory that a situation can develop in which interest rates reach near zero ( zero interest-rate policy ) yet do not effectively stimulate
2542-400: The details below. Request from 172.68.168.226 via cp1108 cp1108, Varnish XID 258125397 Upstream caches: cp1108 int Error: 429, Too Many Requests at Thu, 28 Nov 2024 10:56:51 GMT Recession Heterodox In economics , a recession is a business cycle contraction that occurs when there is a period of broad decline in economic activity. Recessions generally occur when there
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2604-486: The economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its through." The NBER is considered the official arbiter of recession start and end dates for the United States. The Bureau of Economic Analysis , an independent federal agency that provides official macroeconomic and industry statistics, says "the often-cited identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth
2666-442: The economy. Economist Robert J. Shiller wrote that the term "refers also to the sense of trust we have in each other, our sense of fairness in economic dealings, and our sense of the extent of corruption and bad faith. When animal spirits are on ebb, consumers do not want to spend and businesses do not want to make capital expenditures or hire people." Behavioral economics has also explained many psychological biases that may trigger
2728-475: The economy. In theory, near-zero interest rates should encourage firms and consumers to borrow and spend. However, if too many individuals or corporations focus on saving or paying down debt rather than spending, lower interest rates have less effect on investment and consumption behavior; increasing the money supply is like " pushing on a string ". Economist Paul Krugman described the U.S. 2009 recession and Japan's lost decade as liquidity traps. One remedy to
2790-558: The following are considered possible predictors: Manufacturing: Industrial Production: Chemical Activity: Transportation: Corporate Profits: Employment: Personal Income: Household Savings and Consumer Debt: Retail Sales, Consumer Confidence and Consumer Expenditures: Housing and non-residential construction: Credit Markets: Business Expectations: Margin of stock market traders: Asset Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Unorthodox Recession Indicators: Overview of recession indicators: Sahm Recession Indicator signals
2852-449: The following categories: Economic factors: Financial factors: External shocks Summary: Why recessions happen is a complex phenomena often resulting from a interplay of various factors. While these factors can individually contribute to a recession, the cumulative impact of several occurring simultaneously can significantly amplify the negative effect on the economy. Recessions are very challenging to predict. While some variables like
2914-620: The following year, its promotion of labour candidates independent from the Liberal Party increasingly brought it into conflict with the Federated Trades Council. The Committee became the Sheffield Trades and Labour Council in June 1908, severing all links with the Federated Trades Council. Many of the lighter trades remained with the Federated Trades Council, the heavier trades mostly affiliated solely to
2976-565: The leaders of the Trades Council formed the Sheffield Labour Association to campaign for the election of workers to public bodies as members of the Liberal Party. Memmott, Uttley, Charles Hobson and William F. Wardley were all elected to Sheffield Town Council as Lib-Labs . However, Hobson was rejected as a Lib-Lab candidate for the Sheffield Attercliffe by-election, 1894 . Although the Executive of
3038-464: The local secretary of the Razor Smiths' Union, attempted to bring the parties together for conciliation , but Harrison refused this. In response to his threat of litigation, a meeting of local trade unions was held in Sheffield's Town Hall on 10 November 1858. The meeting, chaired by George Calvert Holland , passed a resolution calling for the foundation of a local trades council. A committee
3100-481: The new organisation. A few groups remained affiliated to both Trades Councils; for example, Hobson remained President of the Federated, but also held membership of the Trades and Labour. The ILP disaffiliated from the Trades and Labour in 1910, after local ILP leader Alf Barton proposed to stand as a local election candidate without the sanction of the Trades Council. However, Barton left the ILP soon after to form
3162-610: The operative classes, and giving increased efficiency to the operation of trade societies." In the first instance, it saw itself as an impartial arbiter of industrial relations, and where arbitration failed, as a supporter of its branches. The arbitration saw successes in various trades, in Sheffield, Rotherham and Hathersage . The membership was mostly of unions based in the cutlery trade. On formation, there were 17 branches, with 3,100 members, while by February 1860, twenty-two societies had joined, representing 3,536 workers. A recession hit trade from 1861, and membership then fell, to
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#17327914116373224-543: The organisation sent delegates to the national Trades Union Congress , and in 1874 it hosted the event at Sheffield's Temperance Hotel. For the remainder of the century, the organisation focussed on promoting itself as an arbitrator in trade disputes and preventing wares being falsely stamped. While it had limited success in arbitration, Stuart Uttley 's campaigns on stamping brought about the Merchandise Marks Act 1887 ( 50 & 51 Vict. c. 28). In 1885,
3286-507: The possibility of a recession: Except for the above, there are no known completely reliable predictors. Analysis by Prakash Loungani of the International Monetary Fund found that only two of the sixty recessions around the world during the 1990s had been predicted by a consensus of economists one year earlier, while there were zero consensus predictions one year earlier for the 49 recessions during 2009. However,
3348-419: The prices of the inputs used in producing goods and services. Another main reason can be problems e.g. in financial markets. Because recessions have many likely explanations, it is demanding to predict them. Some variables might at first glance be the causes of recessions, but they could also be the results of a recession, which means they are endogenous to recessions. One can summarize the causes of recessions in
3410-484: The private sector savings curve is elastic even during a balance sheet recession (responsive to changes in real interest rates), disagreeing with Koo's view that it is inelastic (non-responsive to changes in real interest rates). A July 2012 survey of balance sheet recession research reported that consumer demand and employment are affected by household leverage levels. Both durable and non-durable goods consumption declined as households moved from low to high leverage with
3472-556: The sum of liabilities plus equity. If asset prices fall below the value of the debt incurred to purchase them, then the equity must be negative, meaning the consumer or corporation is insolvent. Economist Paul Krugman wrote in 2014 that "the best working hypothesis seems to be that the financial crisis was only one manifestation of a broader problem of excessive debt—that it was a so-called "balance sheet recession". In Krugman's view, such crises require debt reduction strategies combined with higher government spending to offset declines from
3534-561: The two continued to print a joint annual report, shared a president and staff, and worked closely together. Two years later, the Trades Council affiliated to the Labour Party. As of 2017, Sheffield Trades and Labour Council's Secretary was Martin Mayer and its President was Bob Jeffery. Labour organisation Too Many Requests If you report this error to the Wikimedia System Administrators, please include
3596-421: The world's GDP were caught in a liquidity trap. Behavior that may be optimal for an individual (e.g., saving more during adverse economic conditions) can be detrimental if too many individuals pursue the same behavior, as ultimately, one person's consumption is another person's income. Too many consumers attempting to save (or pay down debt) simultaneously is called the paradox of thrift and can cause or deepen
3658-489: Was U-shaped and its 8-out-of-9 quarters of contraction in 1997–1999 can be described as L-shaped. Korea , Hong Kong and South-east Asia experienced U-shaped recessions in 1997–1998, although Thailand 's eight consecutive quarters of decline should be termed L-shaped. Recessions have psychological and confidence aspects. For example, if companies expect economic activity to slow, they may reduce employment levels and save money rather than invest. Such expectations can create
3720-415: Was appointed to this end, which also managed to get Harrison to withdraw the charges against the printers. The committee called a series of further meetings, which finally agreed its rules and the title of Association of Organised Trades of Sheffield and Neighbourhood on 22 June 1859. Although not the first trades council , only Glasgow Trades Council can claim a longer continuous history. In September,
3782-484: Was ignored, and when a new claim the following year was also passed over, they joined with the smiths' union, the largest in the town, in calling a strike in February 1866. Some large employers retaliated by installing file cutting machines. The Association's attempt to mediate failed, and the employers rejected a compromise. In order to bolster the strike, the Association appealed for funds from trades in other areas of
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#17327914116373844-438: Was ineffective because there was limited demand for funds while firms paid down their liabilities. In a balance sheet recession, GDP declines by the amount of debt repayment and un-borrowed individual savings, leaving government stimulus spending as the primary remedy. Krugman discussed the balance sheet recession concept in 2010, agreeing with Koo's situation assessment and view that sustained deficit spending when faced with
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