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96-505: The Rhino Passive Infrared Defeat System (also known simply as Rhino ) was an early detonation Counter-IED system. It was mounted to the front of a vehicle and used heat to prematurely detonate any hidden improvised explosive devices (IEDs) while the vehicle was at a safe distance away from the blast. It was developed by the Joint Improvised-Threat Defeat Organization (JIEDDO) in 2006 during

192-485: A Chi-squared distribution with one degree of freedom, and the p-value is calculated using the Chi-squared test . For the example data, the log-rank test for difference in survival gives a p-value of p=0.0653, indicating that the treatment groups do not differ significantly in survival, assuming an alpha level of 0.05. The sample size of 23 subjects is modest, so there is little power to detect differences between

288-418: A bazaar, plugged the appliance into his Humvee, and attached it to the end of a long pole that was welded to the front of the vehicle. These and other similar ideas led JIEDDO to develop Rhino in 2006, one of their earliest innovations. The initial design consisted of a glow plug that was placed inside a metal ammunition can, which was then attached to a 10 ft long metal pole with the other end mounted onto

384-464: A comprehensive approach to C-IED potentially involving close cooperation and coordination between the diplomatic, military, economic, and informational levers of power. The complexity of the IED threat network is increased since mobile phones and the internet provide a low-cost and easily accessible medium for information sharing and the swift promulgation of tactical ideas and practices, thereby facilitating

480-450: A continuous covariate, the thickness of the tumor (variable name = "thick"). In the histograms, the thickness values are positively skewed and do not have a Gaussian -like, Symmetric probability distribution . Regression models, including the Cox model, generally give more reliable results with normally-distributed variables. For this example we may use a logarithmic transform. The log of

576-481: A given data set is a reasonable strategy. This example of a survival tree analysis uses the R   package "rpart". The example is based on 146 stage   C prostate cancer patients in the data set stagec in rpart. Rpart and the stagec example are described in Atkinson and Therneau (1997), which is also distributed as a vignette of the rpart package. The variables in stages are: The survival tree produced by

672-482: A great impact on the local population. In some cases local actions against adversaries and reporting of IED related information could be linked to rewards such as development programs. In military efforts, the political and diplomatic channels lead the military approach and all elements of the C-IED approach. Political and diplomatic tools for attack the networks will be based upon the political importance of ensuring there

768-413: A log-rank test for a difference in survival in the maintained versus non-maintained treatment groups in the aml data. The graph shows KM plots for the aml data broken out by treatment group, which is indicated by the variable "x" in the data. The null hypothesis for a log-rank test is that the groups have the same survival. The expected number of subjects surviving at each time point in each is adjusted for

864-523: A mixture of stable and unstable carbon isotopes ; unstable isotopes would decay sooner or later, but the stable isotopes would last indefinitely. Related quantities are defined in terms of the survival function. The lifetime distribution function , conventionally denoted F , is defined as the complement of the survival function, F ( t ) = Pr ( T ≤ t ) = 1 − S ( t ) . {\displaystyle F(t)=\Pr(T\leq t)=1-S(t).} If F

960-421: A model based on the generic core functions (find, fix, strike and exploit) will ensure key areas and points in the adversary system can be identified, enabling power or influence to be applied. Immediate effects can be organized to affect other parts of the system. For example, covertly observing an IED placement without attacking the placement team could lead to a subsequent operation to identify further elements of

1056-437: A period of immersion, developing layering and cross cueing of sensors, an improved clarity and depth of knowledge can be established. Human Intelligence (HUMINT) is a category of intelligence derived from information collected and provided by human sources. Information from the local population and host nation security forces can prove especially valuable not least to establish unusual activity or information about adversaries in

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1152-455: A result, several soldiers on the battlefield ended up improvising their own solutions that took advantage of how the passive infrared sensors on the IEDs reacted to heat signatures. One unnamed soldier proposed mounting a large hair dryer to the front of the vehicle to blow hot air on the road to prematurely set off any hidden IEDs and clear the path. Another soldier supposedly purchased a toaster at

1248-495: A ship's identification from unique characteristics of a specific radar) to the commander. Equipment used in Counter-IED efforts consists of robots, soldier worn protection, specialized counter-IED vehicles, electronic and other countermeasures, detection systems, and unmanned systems intended for counter-IED. EOD elements are always in high demand and there is nearly always a shortage of trained personnel. Additionally there

1344-468: A single line, curve, plane, or surface is sufficient to separate groups (alive, dead) or to estimate a quantitative response (survival time). In some cases alternative partitions give more accurate classification or quantitative estimates. One set of alternative methods are tree-structured survival models, including survival random forests. Tree-structured survival models may give more accurate predictions than Cox models. Examining both types of models for

1440-679: A society that may otherwise appear opaque. The view from those that understand the culture and the country best is invaluable in developing understanding. HUMINT is therefore vital to successful CIED. Imagery Intelligence (IMINT) is intelligence derived from imagery acquired by sensors which can be ground-based, seaborne or carried by air or space platforms. For C-IED, imagery allows the physical capture of information for analysis and can be used, for example to: track human movement around suspicious areas; identify locations of interest; demonstrate change in an area or disturbance of terrain; demonstrate physical relationships or networks. IMINT can also provide

1536-586: A survival event density function can be defined as s ( t ) = S ′ ( t ) = d d t S ( t ) = d d t ∫ t ∞ f ( u ) d u = d d t [ 1 − F ( t ) ] = − f ( t ) . {\displaystyle s(t)=S'(t)={\frac {d}{dt}}S(t)={\frac {d}{dt}}\int _{t}^{\infty }f(u)\,du={\frac {d}{dt}}[1-F(t)]=-f(t).} In other fields, such as statistical physics,

1632-407: A t-test of log(thickness) by sex both indicate that there is a significant difference between men and women in the thickness of the tumor when they first see the clinician. The Cox model assumes that the hazards are proportional. The proportional hazard assumption may be tested using the R   function cox.zph(). A p-value which is less than 0.05 indicates that the hazards are not proportional. For

1728-547: A telescoping pole whose length could be adjusted to change the position of the heat decoy. More than 16,000 Rhino II devices were deployed to the U.S. Army and Marines in Iraq by the end of 2008, costing around $ 1,800 each to produce. Before long, the Rhino II was featured on almost every U.S. vehicle in Iraq. However, by 2010, newer IEDs began to use high-powered radio waves from coalition jammers instead of heat signatures to set off

1824-429: A useful means of understanding relationships and the networks within. Counter-IED efforts involve conducting specialized analysis to identify vulnerabilities, inter-dependencies, and cascading effects of the IED threat network Nodal Activity Model. These vulnerability assessments are the foundation of a risk-based implementation of protective programs designed to prevent, deter, and mitigate the risk of an IED attack. HNAT

1920-542: A worldwide series of events around C-IED and CBRNe: the NCT (non conventional threat). The Asian edition NCT eXplosive Asia will be held in 2014 for its 3rd edition in Siemens Reap, Cambodia. Intelligence sources include national military and police agencies (including counterintelligence). The military intelligence component contributes to a C-IED approach in these ways: Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR)

2016-434: Is Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Cox PH models work also with categorical predictor variables, which are encoded as {0,1} indicator or dummy variables. The log-rank test is a special case of a Cox PH analysis, and can be performed using Cox PH software. This example uses the melanoma data set from Dalgaard Chapter 14. Data are in the R package ISwR. The Cox proportional hazards regression using   R gives

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2112-845: Is differentiable then the derivative, which is the density function of the lifetime distribution, is conventionally denoted f , f ( t ) = F ′ ( t ) = d d t F ( t ) . {\displaystyle f(t)=F'(t)={\frac {d}{dt}}F(t).} The function f is sometimes called the event density ; it is the rate of death or failure events per unit time. The survival function can be expressed in terms of probability distribution and probability density functions S ( t ) = Pr ( T > t ) = ∫ t ∞ f ( u ) d u = 1 − F ( t ) . {\displaystyle S(t)=\Pr(T>t)=\int _{t}^{\infty }f(u)\,du=1-F(t).} Similarly,

2208-404: Is a common sense of purpose and agreement as to the desired outcomes between all those cooperating in resolution of the situation. The political tasks should link with wider political strategies for example creating comprehensive programs to tackle the root causes of the problem that has led to adversaries’ use of IEDs. All political activity will need to be coordinated internationally and throughout

2304-712: Is a high level of risk to these personnel. Within EOD, IED Defeat or (IEDD) is the location, identification, rendering safe and final disposal of IEDs. IEDD is a specialist skill requiring specific training and equipment preferably including the use of remote control vehicles. EOD tasks related to C-IED are focused upon the activities of detection, mitigation, IEDD and also exploitation. EOD tasks aim to respond to, identify, render safe and dispose of explosive ordnance, including Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) devices, that threaten/impede maneuver. This also includes destroying captured enemy explosive ordnance and assisting in

2400-784: Is a high threat requiring the intimate support of other C-IED enablers. Route clearance teams are often organized as a Route Clearance Package (RCP) within an all-arms grouping and are normally engineer-based. They can be equipped with a mix of general and specialist vehicles, equipment and personnel integrated to conduct route clearance. Their purpose is to eliminate concealment for IEDs, munitions and caches as well as providing systematic detection and deterrence sweeps along cleared routes. A RCP can be used in both general support (e.g. to maintain main supply routes) and in close support (e.g. to provide support to maneuver units on tactical road moves). RCPs can consist of Mechanized and Combat Heavy Engineers and EOD teams. Another method for organizing an RCP

2496-464: Is a superior sensor capable of detecting a wide range of munitions and Home Made Explosives (HME) used to construct IEDs. Tactical use of MWDs can deprive the enemy of explosive caches and components, and disrupt the enemy's ability to attack mounted and dismounted patrols. Effective integration of MWD teams in small unit tactical operations can reduce casualties, increase freedom of movement for dismounted patrols, and instill unit confidence in countering

2592-529: Is an asset used in an environment where Radio Controlled IEDs (RCIED) are a threat. The division of EW known as electronic support measures can search for, identify and intercept, electromagnetic emissions and sometimes locate their sources for the purpose of immediate threat elimination. It provides a source of information required for immediate decisions involving Electronic Counter Measures (ECM), and other tactical actions. The division of EW known as ECM can take action to prevent or reduce an enemy's effective use of

2688-543: Is called reliability theory , reliability analysis or reliability engineering in engineering , duration analysis or duration modelling in economics , and event history analysis in sociology . Survival analysis attempts to answer certain questions, such as what is the proportion of a population which will survive past a certain time? Of those that survive, at what rate will they die or fail? Can multiple causes of death or failure be taken into account? How do particular circumstances or characteristics increase or decrease

2784-430: Is complicated by the combination of public and private influences, the operation of market forces and the complex relationships between global and national rates of growth and economic activity. Defeat the device is a mainly military response made up of proactive and reactive activities as a result of the existence of suspect or emplaced devices. The purpose of these activities is to deliver freedom to operate and achieve

2880-405: Is created. While this concept provides a convenient metaphor to discuss possible targeting methodology, it seldom resembles the facts, because human networks are not directly analogous to a hornet's nest. In other words, not every situation can be resolved by a single kill or capture of the “queen”. Activity is focused on the critical vulnerabilities of the IED threat network, for example, by denying

2976-484: Is defined as S ( t ) = Pr ( T > t ) {\displaystyle S(t)=\Pr(T>t)} where t is some time, T is a random variable denoting the time of death, and "Pr" stands for probability . That is, the survival function is the probability that the time of death is later than some specified time t . The survival function is also called the survivor function or survivorship function in problems of biological survival, and

Rhino Passive Infrared Defeat System - Misplaced Pages Continue

3072-490: Is defined within C-IED as technical, tactical and information actions undertaken to minimize the effects of an IED Event. Mitigation activity will reduce the effect of potentially being compromised as well as reducing the actual IED events if compromised. Mitigation activity will form part of Force Protection (FP) measures and as such will use a framework of measures, both proactive and reactive that are supported by iterative risk management. Risk analysis based upon understanding of

3168-521: Is one tool in the unit's IED defeat tool box, but it is not the only tool. Preparing the force activity is applicable to all military and law enforcement components and involves measures designed to ensure they are prepared for operations and enabled to deliver the C-IED approach and its component capabilities. In order to deliver C-IED capability, coherent and supporting Lines of Development (LoD) are required. Not least C-IED efforts must be appropriately organized, interoperable with other military allies and

3264-662: Is the coordinated and integrated acquisition, processing and provision of timely, accurate, relevant, coherent and assured information and intelligence to support commander's conduct of activities. Land, sea, air and space platforms have critical ISR roles in supporting operations in general. For C-IED air and space platforms can provide valuable input for each of the intelligence disciplines. Land platforms contribute too, through observation posts, reconnaissance and patrolling activity, surveillance of targets as well as static cameras and sensors for monitoring locations, facilities, networks, individuals, routes etc. By massing ISR assets, allowing

3360-428: Is the result for the log-rank test, with p=0.011, the same result as the log-rank test, because the log-rank test is a special case of a Cox PH regression. The Likelihood ratio test has better behavior for small sample sizes, so it is generally preferred. The Cox model extends the log-rank test by allowing the inclusion of additional covariates. This example use the melanoma data set where the predictor variables include

3456-434: Is the systematic collection and processing of information and dissemination of intelligence obtained as a result of tactical questioning, interrogation and the extraction of data from recovered materiel. It is a multi-source, responsive process that aims to maximize the intelligence value of captured personnel and recovered materiel. MPE activity may be supported by a dedicated intelligence exploitation facility which may include

3552-705: Is to form 5 elements within the team responsible for command and control, detection, security, improvement, and EOD. Military search is the management and application of systematic procedures and appropriate equipment to locate specified targets in support of military operations. Specified targets may include people, information and material resources employed by an adversary. The techniques of military search can be applied to all manner of search tasks to include combinations of personnel, buildings, venues, areas, routes, vehicles, vessels and aircraft. Military working dogs (MWD) are C-IED enablers and are often integral to search activities. The MWD, with its enhanced sense of smell,

3648-413: Is used to interdict, neutralize, and isolate threat networks. It primarily consists of advanced intelligence analytic procedures and techniques, such as Social Network Analysis (SNA) , Link , Pattern, and Associative Analysis. It is enabled by tools such as network analysis software , target development , and nomination processes. Further network analysis can be conducted using other models that look at

3744-424: The reliability function in mechanical survival problems. In the latter case, the reliability function is denoted R ( t ). Usually one assumes S (0) = 1, although it could be less than 1   if there is the possibility of immediate death or failure. The survival function must be non-increasing: S ( u ) ≤ S ( t ) if u ≥ t . This property follows directly because T > u implies T > t . This reflects

3840-453: The "street smarts" developed by law enforcement who work in the cities. Inert IED Training Devices are typically designed and constructed by current and former Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) and Public Safety Bomb Technicians who draw from their real-world experience with live IEDs and other explosive threats to ensure that the training devices are accurate, current and realistic. Various Counter-IED training workshops are provided by

3936-437: The "survival" package in R. The data set is from Miller (1997) and the question is whether the standard course of chemotherapy should be extended ('maintained') for additional cycles. The aml data set sorted by survival time is shown in the box. (weeks) The last observation (11), at 161 weeks, is censored. Censoring indicates that the patient did not have an event (no recurrence of aml cancer). Another subject, observation 3,

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4032-510: The EFP as a countermeasure against Rhino II. As of June 2018, more than 34,000 Rhino gadgets have been deployed to U.S. troops overseas. Counter-IED efforts This IED threat network requires multiple actions and resources in order to stage an IED Event. The IED threat network may be either hierarchical or non-hierarchical but it will contain nodes such as personnel, resources and other actions that are linked. The importance of these nodes and

4128-480: The IED threat as a weapon of strategic influence. The Joint Center of Excellence is JIEDDO's lead organization for the train-the-force line of operation and is responsible for development of training capabilities that enable the services' and combatant commanders' mission of preparing U.S. forces to defeat this threat. Combat Hunter Training teaches how to track the emplacer by combined hunter and tracker skills and with determining group dynamics - as an example - using

4224-399: The IED threat network, for example a bomb maker or a cache. By the same process, observing the bomb maker may lead to identifying a supply chain for IED components used for a large number of teams, adding a much higher value to the outcome. The model used to describe this approach is called find, fix, finish, exploit and analyze or F3EA: Nodal activity modelling within an IED threat network is

4320-559: The IED threat. The MWD team can be thought of as a reconnaissance sensor. Like many sensors, the team can passively collect information all the time and teams are useful in this role. But by planning when and where an MWD team will search, units give themselves the greatest advantage of MWD teams. Units assign specific searches to MWD teams and can develop these collection requirements (searches for MWD teams) at critical times and places in their operations by analyzing historic IED data and threat Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTPs). MWD use

4416-432: The ability to process captured persons. When MPE produces intelligence for C-IED it can directly feed into understanding of the IED threat networks. The following disciplines/processes are the main components of MPE: Multiple source fusion is the synthesis of information and intelligence from a limited number of sources, normally controlled by the same agency. Intelligence staff should fuse the output of multiple sources from

4512-407: The above will contribute to attack the networks within the C-IED approach. Within the C-IED approach use of the legal process can disrupt international support, seize funds, bring prosecutions, change laws within the host nation (for example to make the sale, purchase, ownership or transportation of IED components illegal) or to proscribe membership of a specific group. Legal protocols also underscore

4608-404: The analysis is shown in the figure. Each branch in the tree indicates a split on the value of a variable. For example, the root of the tree splits subjects with grade < 2.5 versus subjects with grade 2.5 or greater. The terminal nodes indicate the number of subjects in the node, the number of subjects who have events, and the relative event rate compared to the root. In the node on the far left,

4704-462: The costs associated with the IED threat network may come from charitable organizations , donations , fundraising , illicit activities like extortion , and money laundering, or may be concealed within the payment of religious tithes or local taxes or foreign government support . Money transfer may be occurring through recognized international channels or an alternative system like hawala brokers. Irregular activity can be inexpensive relative to

4800-418: The costs of countering it. Work must be done comprehensively to identify the physical and virtual networks for raising, moving and hiding money, identify the physical links and break them, and attack the links between illicit activity that generates revenue and adversaries that use it. Counter-threat finance is usually part of a broader effort to administer sanctions regimes, combat terrorist finance , combat

4896-571: The creation of an international and multi-functional framework to share information on these networks as well as collaborative multinational countermeasures. Attack the network (AtN) is the principal pillar requiring this joint, inter-agency and multinational approach. Attack the network operations are defined as actions, kinetic or non-kinetic, used to disrupt, destroy, or reduce an enemy's capacity to mount terror operations, specifically groups that use IEDs. It consists of largely offensive and proactive activities, driven by intelligence that may go beyond

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4992-529: The data, and average the trees to predict survival. This is the method underlying the survival random forest models. Survival random forest analysis is available in the R   package "randomForestSRC". The randomForestSRC package includes an example survival random forest analysis using the data set pbc. This data is from the Mayo Clinic Primary Biliary Cirrhosis (PBC) trial of the liver conducted between 1974 and 1984. In

5088-481: The disposal of unserviceable national and foreign explosive ordnance. Unexploded Ordnance (UXO), rendering safe of IEDs. Route search and route check are categories of search that involve identifying vulnerable points or vulnerable areas and using 3 categories of search in increasing levels of threat or required assuredness: Route checks are conducted by patrol-search trained troops: intermediate route search using trained search teams; and advanced route search where there

5184-413: The efficient operation of these diverse systems. IED network members also have the ability to operate part-time and can blend back into the civilian population when their actions are completed. Such systems can be extremely resilient, invariably hard to target and are, therefore, survivable . Also, adversary targets can range from the specific such as host nation security force bases and recruiting events to

5280-724: The electromagnetic spectrum that degrade, neutralize, or destroy friendly combat capability. Electronic Support (ES) is the subdivision of EW involving actions tasked by, or under direct control of, an operational commander to search for, intercept, identify, and locate or localize sources of intentional and unintentional radiated EM energy for the purpose of immediate threat recognition, targeting, planning, and conduct of future operations. These measures begin with systems designed and operators trained to make Electronic Intercepts (ELINT) and then classification and analysis broadly known as Signals intelligence (SIGINT) from such detection's to return information and perhaps actionable intelligence (e.g.

5376-579: The electromagnetic spectrum through the use of electromagnetic energy. Electronic warfare includes three major subdivisions: Electronic Attack (EA), Electronic Protection (EP), and Electronic Support (ES). Electronic Attack (EA) involves the use of EM energy, directed energy, or anti-radiation weapons to attack personnel, facilities, or equipment with the intent of degrading, neutralizing, or destroying enemy combat capability. Electronic Protection (EP) involves actions taken to protect personnel, facilities, and equipment from any effects of friendly or enemy use of

5472-579: The example, the random forest survival model gives more accurate predictions of survival than the Cox PH model. The prediction errors are estimated by bootstrap re-sampling . Recent advancements in deep representation learning have been extended to survival estimation. The DeepSurv model proposes to replace the log-linear parameterization of the CoxPH model with a multi-layer perceptron. Further extensions like Deep Survival Machines and Deep Cox Mixtures involve

5568-642: The favorable outcome of the Rhino’s initial run, insurgents soon began making modifications to the IEDs to account for this countermeasure. Within six weeks, the aim of the EFP was adjusted so that the slug was fired 10 feet back from the Rhino to hit the vehicle. In response, JIEDDO and researchers at the Army Research Laboratory in Adelphi, Maryland designed and developed the Rhino II, which came with

5664-427: The front of a vehicle. The glow plug acted as a heat decoy, which triggered any nearby IED’s infrared sensor prematurely and fired the copper explosively formed penetrator (EFP) slug at the Rhino instead of the vehicle behind it. The countermeasure proved to be a success at the time as U.S. forces found that the Rhino could not only take the impact of an EFP but also, in rare cases, continue working afterwards. Despite

5760-476: The government and non-government agencies which will require a political and diplomatic lead and policy to support it. Key areas to address include: the need for a common narrative; rules for military operations within: and, if necessary, outside of the JOA, other political tasks will lead the reform of the host nation security and justice sectors including: military forces, intelligence services, militia and police,

5856-677: The host nation law enforcement, manned, equipped, sustained, educated in doctrine, and trained in tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) to the level required for their operational role. This capability is developed from a mix of the military commander's guidance, the outputs of the residual experience in the operational area, the lessons process, and technology and contributions from the other C-IED pillars. Commanders ideally ensure that intelligence on IEDs and related adversary TTPs are quickly disseminated and that friendly TTPs can be modified to be as up-to-date, appropriate and effective as possible. Education and Individual Training (E&IT) comprises

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5952-689: The indiscriminate such as concentrations of people in public places. However, IEDs are not only found within the land environment; other targets may include maritime choke points and ships alongside, as well as aircraft in flight or on the ground. The first organization to tackle IED's on a large scale was the Joint IED Defeat Organization or JIEDDO of the U.S. Department of Defense on 14 February 2006. NATO later adopted JIEDDO's tactics, techniques and procedures. The C-IED approach used by NATO involves three mutually supporting and complementary pillars of activity which are: attack

6048-468: The instructional activities that provide skills, knowledge and attitudes required in the performance of assigned duties, and upon which information can be correctly interpreted and sound judgement exercised. E&IT focuses on preparation for a task in order to meet operational requirements and specific needs. The emergence of the IED threat has been a significant change to the historic threat faced by military and law enforcement communities and continues to be

6144-411: The latter then seeks to identify activities which take place within the functional node. Center of gravity analysis provides a model for systemically identifying critical vulnerabilities. There are four steps in analyzing the center of gravity of an IED threat network: Financial efforts involve seizure of assets and anti- money laundering efforts, for example. The means and methods used to underwrite

6240-469: The linkages between them will vary. Identifying the critical vulnerabilities within the IED threat network is an important C-IED activity. Some IED threat networks may be part of large, international terrorist organizations and some may be state sponsored. Some may work completely independently, while others may extend from theater down to village level. This span of possibilities increases the complexity of military and law enforcement operations and requires

6336-434: The melanoma data we obtain p=0.222. Hence, we cannot reject the null hypothesis of the hazards being proportional. Additional tests and graphs for examining a Cox model are described in the textbooks cited. Cox models can be extended to deal with variations on the simple analysis. The Cox PH regression model is a linear model. It is similar to linear regression and logistic regression. Specifically, these methods assume that

6432-546: The necessary proof required for analysis leading to effective targeting and successful prosecution. Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) is a category that includes communications intelligence and electronic intelligence when there is no requirement to differentiate between these two types of intelligence, useful especially when the two have fused together. For C-IED, the analysis of intercepted communications enables hostile plans to be disrupted and to identify hostile personnel and their networks. Materiel and Personnel Exploitation (MPE)

6528-445: The need for the collection and proper handling of evidence to ensure that individuals can be successfully dealt with by appropriate courts. Overseas investment, international flows of capital and trade, and development assistance provide scope for the exercise of economic influence. Economic power can provide a range of incentives, boycotts, tariffs, pricing structures and sanctions to influence decisions and affect behavior. Their impact

6624-552: The network , defeat the device , and prepare the force . These are all underpinned by understanding and intelligence . (Counter-IED efforts can also be broken up into six key operational activities: predict, prevent, detect, neutralize, mitigate, and exploit.) A growing danger to the international community consists of highly complex adversary networks with international span that employ criminal financing as well as terror attacks and other destructive capabilities. Effectively countering these dynamic and violent illicit networks requires

6720-451: The notion that survival to a later age is possible only if all younger ages are attained. Given this property, the lifetime distribution function and event density ( F and f below) are well-defined. The survival function is usually assumed to approach zero as age increases without bound (i.e., S ( t ) → 0 as t → ∞), although the limit could be greater than zero if eternal life is possible. For instance, we could apply survival analysis to

6816-410: The number of events and the proportion surviving at each event time point. The life table for the aml data, created using the R   software, is shown. The life table summarizes the events and the proportion surviving at each event time point. The columns in the life table have the following interpretation: The log-rank test compares the survival times of two or more groups. This example uses

6912-399: The number of subjects at risk in the groups at each event time. The log-rank test determines if the observed number of events in each group is significantly different from the expected number. The formal test is based on a chi-squared statistic. When the log-rank statistic is large, it is evidence for a difference in the survival times between the groups. The log-rank statistic approximately has

7008-507: The organism or mechanism is dead or broken. Recurring event or repeated event models relax that assumption. The study of recurring events is relevant in systems reliability , and in many areas of social sciences and medical research. Survival analysis is used in several ways: The following terms are commonly used in survival analyses: This example uses the Acute Myelogenous Leukemia survival data set "aml" from

7104-510: The primary casualty-producing weapon and tactic against military forces. To address this significant concern, the Counter-IED community has responded and developed a number of training activities to better prepare themselves for operations in a high threat IED environment. Train the Force , one of three mutually supporting lines of operation, is a critical component of the JIEDDO mission to defeat

7200-515: The private sector for government agencies and international corporations to help manage and reduce their risks from acts of terrorism , protect their assets, and adapt to ever-changing operational needs. These workshops include training courses on applications, security protocols, and various types of screening equipment. NATO holds an annual Counter-IED conference in cooperation with the C-IED Centre of Excellence. IB Consultancy organizes

7296-454: The probability of survival ? To answer such questions, it is necessary to define "lifetime". In the case of biological survival, death is unambiguous, but for mechanical reliability, failure may not be well-defined, for there may well be mechanical systems in which failure is partial, a matter of degree, or not otherwise localized in time . Even in biological problems, some events (for example, heart attack or other organ failure) may have

7392-424: The relationships between and within links and nodes. One of these is component analysis with 2 subsets: individual component analysis looking at the detail of each component part, and nodal component analysis looking at the relationship between nodes. Nodal component analysis has 2 further subsets functional analysis and nodal activity analysis. The former identifies and links the nodes in terms of their function,

7488-512: The results shown in the box. The Cox regression results are interpreted as follows. The summary output also gives upper and lower 95% confidence intervals for the hazard ratio: lower 95% bound = 1.15; upper 95% bound = 3.26. Finally, the output gives p-values for three alternative tests for overall significance of the model: These three tests are asymptotically equivalent. For large enough N, they will give similar results. For small N, they may differ somewhat. The last row, "Score (logrank) test"

7584-435: The same ambiguity. The theory outlined below assumes well-defined events at specific times; other cases may be better treated by models which explicitly account for ambiguous events. More generally, survival analysis involves the modelling of time to event data; in this context, death or failure is considered an "event" in the survival analysis literature – traditionally only a single event occurs for each subject, after which

7680-472: The security sector includes judicial and penal systems, oversight bodies, the Executive, parliamentary committees, government ministries, legislative frameworks, customary or traditional authorities, financial and regulatory bodies. The political lead will determine at the outset levels of military support for the host nation and at a subsequent time agreements involving the reintegration of adversaries. All of

7776-534: The single source collection environment, and the translation of that single source information into a format useful to the non-specialist. The single source processing capability should be able to re-task collection activity according to priorities; it should also be collocated with collection assets. Survival analysis Survival analysis is a branch of statistics for analyzing the expected duration of time until one event occurs, such as death in biological organisms and failure in mechanical systems. This topic

7872-570: The study. The question of interest is whether recurrence occurs later in maintained patients than in non-maintained patients. The survival function S ( t ), is the probability that a subject survives longer than time t . S ( t ) is theoretically a smooth curve, but it is usually estimated using the Kaplan–Meier (KM) curve. The graph shows the KM plot for the aml data and can be interpreted as follows: A life table summarizes survival data in terms of

7968-469: The supply of components, finance, leaders, specialists and recruits and adversary exploitation and isolating the adversary from the local population. AtN/CTN seeks to 1) shape and influence IED networks, 2) disrupt their operations, and 3) undermine their financiers and supply chains. Exploitation is a vital component of the attack the networks activity. Information gained provides a picture of adversary capabilities and intentions, perpetrator relationships and

8064-449: The technical construction of the device. This enables the prediction of forthcoming IED activity, informs the targeting process, and enables follow up activities to further disrupt the IED threat network. Intelligence gained from exploitation also feeds into the other C-IED pillars. To execute the intelligence cycle, a model is required that it is able to treat the enemy or adversary as a system. Operational experience has shown that by using

8160-408: The theater of operations, designed to disrupt the networks of the adversary's IED threat network. Counter-network operations usually focus on leadership targeting of an organization, which follows the logic that by catching the right hornet, the whole colony dies. What is often overlooked in this approach, however, is that if just a worker bee is killed, the nest is aggravated and a much bigger problem

8256-520: The thickness of the tumor and increased risk of death. By contrast, the p-value for sex is now p=0.088. The hazard ratio HR = exp(coef) = 1.58, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.934 to 2.68. Because the confidence interval for HR includes 1, these results indicate that sex makes a smaller contribution to the difference in the HR after controlling for the thickness of the tumor, and only trend toward significance. Examination of graphs of log(thickness) by sex and

8352-411: The thickness of the tumor looks to be more normally distributed, so the Cox models will use log thickness. The Cox PH analysis gives the results in the box. The p-value for all three overall tests (likelihood, Wald, and score) are significant, indicating that the model is significant. The p-value for log(thick) is 6.9e-07, with a hazard ratio HR = exp(coef) = 2.18, indicating a strong relationship between

8448-443: The threats is required to form management measures for mitigation. Calculating this involves complex variables including the environment, the adversary, the population, the characteristics of the threat posed (including IEDs) and military forces. This complexity makes it impossible to model with any certainty and in turn this places heavy demands on the commander's skill and judgement for decision-making. Electronic Warfare (EW) support

8544-590: The treatment groups. The chi-squared test is based on asymptotic approximation, so the p-value should be regarded with caution for small sample sizes . Kaplan–Meier curves and log-rank tests are most useful when the predictor variable is categorical (e.g., drug vs. placebo), or takes a small number of values (e.g., drug doses 0, 20, 50, and 100 mg/day) that can be treated as categorical. The log-rank test and KM curves don't work easily with quantitative predictors such as gene expression, white blood count, or age. For quantitative predictor variables, an alternative method

8640-665: The use of conflict diamonds and conflict minerals to finance rebellions against legitimate governments, or disrupt and dismantle the financial networks of the Somali pirate enterprise. Diplomatic efforts involve convincing cooperating nations to restrict the sales of precursors, for example. IED networks are ideally attacked through regional and local politics and diplomacy. The subject of IEDs can deliberately be considered as an issue of negotiations within local government as well as other regional and local agendas. Political agreement may be reached that IEDs are often indiscriminate and have

8736-442: The use of latent variable mixture models to model the time-to-event distribution as a mixture of parametric or semi-parametric distributions while jointly learning representations of the input covariates. Deep learning approaches have shown superior performance especially on complex input data modalities such as images and clinical time-series. The object of primary interest is the survival function , conventionally denoted S , which

8832-403: The values 1/33 indicate that one of the 33 subjects in the node had an event, and that the relative event rate is 0.122. In the node on the far right bottom, the values 11/15 indicate that 11 of 15 subjects in the node had an event, and the relative event rate is 2.7. An alternative to building a single survival tree is to build many survival trees, where each tree is constructed using a sample of

8928-459: The various natures of intelligence. Multiple source fusion activity should be collocated with collection assets. Fusion cells will produce IED trend reporting and intelligence reports to feed current operations or prosecuting follow-on activities as well as intelligence summaries to support future activities for example involving DNA or finger print matches. Single source processing is the identification of patterns and intelligence start points within

9024-559: The war in Iraq to counter the rise of IED-related deaths. During the Iraq War , the rising number of troops killed and wounded by underbelly IEDs buried by insurgents in the middle of the road prompted the U.S. military to funnel billions of dollars into the development of several countermeasures to either detect the explosive or minimize the damage. However, the frequent delays in producing and delivering these countermeasures to Iraq lead to shortages in effective IED-defeating technology. As

9120-516: The wider aims of the operation. Measures taken here to mitigate, detect and neutralize IEDs have an immediate effect and directly save lives. Defeat the device protects the population and delivers physical security to military forces by means of tactical and technical measures as well as information activities. Intelligence from exploitation delivers new understanding and permits the development of new tactical and technical solutions to detect and neutralize devices and to mitigate their effects. Mitigation

9216-607: Was censored at 13 weeks (indicated by status=0). This subject was in the study for only 13 weeks, and the aml cancer did not recur during those 13 weeks. It is possible that this patient was enrolled near the end of the study, so that they could be observed for only 13 weeks. It is also possible that the patient was enrolled early in the study, but was lost to follow up or withdrew from the study. The table shows that other subjects were censored at 16, 28, and 45 weeks (observations 17, 6, and   9 with status=0). The remaining subjects all experienced events (recurrence of aml cancer) while in

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