115-607: The Ecologist was a British environmental journal/magazine, published from 1970 to 2009. Founded by Edward Goldsmith , it addressed a wide range of environmental subjects and promoted an ecological systems thinking approach through its news stories, investigations and opinion articles. The Ecologist encouraged its readers to tackle global issues on a local scale. After cessation of its print edition in July 2009, The Ecologist continued as an online magazine. In mid-2012, it merged with Resurgence magazine, edited by Satish Kumar , with
230-445: A Facebook page at ‘The Ecologist – Official Page’ and a Twitter account at ‘the_ecologist’ with over 100,000 followers. Edward Goldsmith Edward René David Goldsmith (8 November 1928 – 21 August 2009), widely known as Teddy Goldsmith , was an Anglo-French environmentalist, writer and philosopher. He was a member of the prominent Goldsmith family , the eldest son of Major Frank Goldsmith , and elder brother of
345-481: A British Intelligence Officer in Hamburg and Berlin , he involved himself unsuccessfully in a number of business ventures and devoted most of his spare time to the study of the subjects that were to preoccupy him for the rest of his life. Throughout the 1960s, he spent time travelling the world with his close friend, John Aspinall , witnessing at first hand the destruction of traditional societies. He concluded that
460-642: A decadal timescale. Other changes are caused by an imbalance of energy from external forcings . Examples of these include changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases , solar luminosity , volcanic eruptions, and variations in the Earth's orbit around the Sun. To determine the human contribution to climate change, unique "fingerprints" for all potential causes are developed and compared with both observed patterns and known internal climate variability . For example, solar forcing—whose fingerprint involves warming
575-610: A go at the Government and at the Conservatives. So I can't both be the editor and a parliamentary candidate." Andrew Wasley, who joined the organisation in 2010, edited The Ecologist' s website and newsletters. Oliver Tickell was appointed as the editor in October 2013. Brendan Montague became the editor in October 2017. Contributors to The Ecologist have included Jonathon Porritt , Mark Lynas , Paul Kingsnorth, who
690-466: A grammar student, and he later graduated with honours in Philosophy, Politics, and Economics at Magdalen College, Oxford (1947–1950). While studying at Oxford, Goldsmith rejected the reductionist and compartmentalised ideas taught at the time, and he sought a more holistic worldview with which to study societies and the problems facing the world at large. After fulfilling his National Service as
805-625: A high degree of social cohesion, physical health, psychological well-being and spiritual fulfilment of their members. The Blueprint was a major inspiration for the embryonic political party called "People" (later to become the Green Party , ) which invited Goldsmith to stand for the Eye constituency in Suffolk as their candidate in the February 1974 general election . The campaign focused on
920-542: A lot of light to being dark after the ice has melted, they start absorbing more heat . Local black carbon deposits on snow and ice also contribute to Arctic warming. Arctic surface temperatures are increasing between three and four times faster than in the rest of the world. Melting of ice sheets near the poles weakens both the Atlantic and the Antarctic limb of thermohaline circulation , which further changes
1035-412: A marked increase in temperature. Ongoing changes in climate have had no precedent for several thousand years. Multiple independent datasets all show worldwide increases in surface temperature, at a rate of around 0.2 °C per decade. The 2014–2023 decade warmed to an average 1.19 °C [1.06–1.30 °C] compared to the pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900). Not every single year was warmer than
1150-616: A party of activists subsequently occupied the main lobby, refusing to move until the Secretary-General, Javier Pérez de Cuéllar , agreed to see them. The group demanded for him to call an extraordinary general meeting of the Security Council to tackle the global crisis of deforestation . Although failing, the campaign managed to organise a meeting in the US Senate with a group of senators, headed by Al Gore , whom
1265-759: A period of isolation from the British scene. Goldsmith was accused of having affiliated himself with the Nouvelle Droite , an intellectual voice of the European "New Right", after addressing a symposium on Green issues organised in Paris by the GRECE (Research and Study Group on European Culture), a school of political thought founded largely on the works of Alain de Benoist . It was the attending of that and another similar event that had led to rising tensions with
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#17328017110601380-408: A physical climate model. These models simulate how population, economic growth , and energy use affect—and interact with—the physical climate. With this information, these models can produce scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions. This is then used as input for physical climate models and carbon cycle models to predict how atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases might change. Depending on
1495-686: A platform for academic writers who were concerned about the world around them. Thirty-nine years later The Ecologist was still a source of information on issues such as climate change, globalisation and sustainable economics. Edward Goldsmith was the editor from its foundation in 1970 until 1990, and then again from 1997 until 1998 whilst supporting his nephew, Zac Goldsmith . Former editors include Nicholas Hildyard, Peter Bunyard, Patrick McCully , Sarah Sexton, Simon Fairlie, Paul Kingsnorth (deputy editor), Malcolm Tait (managing editor), Harry Ram (managing editor), Jeremy Smith and Pat Thomas . When Hildyard left in 1997, Edward Goldsmith’s initial intention
1610-461: A result of climate change. Global sea level is rising as a consequence of thermal expansion and the melting of glaciers and ice sheets . Sea level rise has increased over time, reaching 4.8 cm per decade between 2014 and 2023. Over the 21st century, the IPCC projects 32–62 cm of sea level rise under a low emission scenario, 44–76 cm under an intermediate one and 65–101 cm under
1725-474: A result. The World Health Organization calls climate change one of the biggest threats to global health in the 21st century. Societies and ecosystems will experience more severe risks without action to limit warming . Adapting to climate change through efforts like flood control measures or drought-resistant crops partially reduces climate change risks, although some limits to adaptation have already been reached. Poorer communities are responsible for
1840-410: A small academic journal with an initial circulation of only 400, to one of the world’s leading environmental affairs magazines with monthly sales (including subscriptions and newsstand) of 20,000. As the magazine grew, its coverage became broader and its style more journalistic. The Ecologist covered topics including food, climate change, news, corporate affairs, chain stores, chemicals, pesticides and
1955-417: A small share of global emissions , yet have the least ability to adapt and are most vulnerable to climate change . Many climate change impacts have been observed in the first decades of the 21st century, with 2023 the warmest on record at +1.48 °C (2.66 °F) since regular tracking began in 1850. Additional warming will increase these impacts and can trigger tipping points , such as melting all of
2070-548: A very high emission scenario. Marine ice sheet instability processes in Antarctica may add substantially to these values, including the possibility of a 2-meter sea level rise by 2100 under high emissions. Climate change has led to decades of shrinking and thinning of the Arctic sea ice . While ice-free summers are expected to be rare at 1.5 °C degrees of warming, they are set to occur once every three to ten years at
2185-519: A warming level of 2 °C. Higher atmospheric CO 2 concentrations cause more CO 2 to dissolve in the oceans, which is making them more acidic . Because oxygen is less soluble in warmer water, its concentrations in the ocean are decreasing , and dead zones are expanding. Greater degrees of global warming increase the risk of passing through ' tipping points '—thresholds beyond which certain major impacts can no longer be avoided even if temperatures return to their previous state. For instance,
2300-528: A writer from World Medicine , Peter Bunyard , to found The Ecologist in 1969. After rejecting what he saw as the excessively reductionist and compartmentalised approach of mainstream academia, he spent much of his time researching and developing his own theories for the unification of the sciences. The Theory of a Unified Science was heavily influenced by cybernetics, as well as the General Systems Theory of Ludwig von Bertalanffy ,
2415-564: Is an estimated total sea level rise of 2.3 metres per degree Celsius (4.2 ft/°F) after 2000 years. Oceanic CO 2 uptake is slow enough that ocean acidification will also continue for hundreds to thousands of years. Deep oceans (below 2,000 metres (6,600 ft)) are also already committed to losing over 10% of their dissolved oxygen by the warming which occurred to date. Further, the West Antarctic ice sheet appears committed to practically irreversible melting, which would increase
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#17328017110602530-711: Is determined by modelling the carbon cycle and climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases. According to UNEP , global warming can be kept below 1.5 °C with a 50% chance if emissions after 2023 do not exceed 200 gigatonnes of CO 2 . This corresponds to around 4 years of current emissions. To stay under 2.0 °C, the carbon budget is 900 gigatonnes of CO 2 , or 16 years of current emissions. The climate system experiences various cycles on its own which can last for years, decades or even centuries. For example, El Niño events cause short-term spikes in surface temperature while La Niña events cause short term cooling. Their relative frequency can affect global temperature trends on
2645-428: Is forcing many species to relocate or become extinct . Even if efforts to minimize future warming are successful, some effects will continue for centuries. These include ocean heating , ocean acidification and sea level rise . Climate change threatens people with increased flooding , extreme heat, increased food and water scarcity, more disease, and economic loss . Human migration and conflict can also be
2760-399: Is independent of where greenhouse gases are emitted, because the gases persist long enough to diffuse across the planet. Since the pre-industrial period, the average surface temperature over land regions has increased almost twice as fast as the global average surface temperature. This is because oceans lose more heat by evaporation and oceans can store a lot of heat . The thermal energy in
2875-450: Is primarily attributed to sulfate aerosols produced by the combustion of fossil fuels with heavy sulfur concentrations like coal and bunker fuel . Smaller contributions come from black carbon (from combustion of fossil fuels and biomass), and from dust. Globally, aerosols have been declining since 1990 due to pollution controls, meaning that they no longer mask greenhouse gas warming as much. Aerosols also have indirect effects on
2990-444: Is radiating into space. Warming reduces average snow cover and forces the retreat of glaciers . At the same time, warming also causes greater evaporation from the oceans , leading to more atmospheric humidity , more and heavier precipitation . Plants are flowering earlier in spring, and thousands of animal species have been permanently moving to cooler areas. Different regions of the world warm at different rates . The pattern
3105-516: Is shaped by feedbacks, which either amplify or dampen the change. Self-reinforcing or positive feedbacks increase the response, while balancing or negative feedbacks reduce it. The main reinforcing feedbacks are the water-vapour feedback , the ice–albedo feedback , and the net effect of clouds. The primary balancing mechanism is radiative cooling , as Earth's surface gives off more heat to space in response to rising temperature. In addition to temperature feedbacks, there are feedbacks in
3220-407: Is the major reason why different climate models project different magnitudes of warming for a given amount of emissions. A climate model is a representation of the physical, chemical and biological processes that affect the climate system. Models include natural processes like changes in the Earth's orbit, historical changes in the Sun's activity, and volcanic forcing. Models are used to estimate
3335-462: Is the uncle of Zac Goldsmith , Jemima Khan and Ben Goldsmith . Climate change Present-day climate change includes both global warming —the ongoing increase in global average temperature —and its wider effects on Earth's climate . Climate change in a broader sense also includes previous long-term changes to Earth's climate. The current rise in global temperatures is driven by human activities , especially fossil fuel burning since
3450-417: Is unclear. A related phenomenon driven by climate change is woody plant encroachment , affecting up to 500 million hectares globally. Climate change has contributed to the expansion of drier climate zones, such as the expansion of deserts in the subtropics . The size and speed of global warming is making abrupt changes in ecosystems more likely. Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in
3565-511: The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and irreversible damage to key ecosystems like the Amazon rainforest and coral reefs can unfold in a matter of decades. The long-term effects of climate change on oceans include further ice melt, ocean warming , sea level rise, ocean acidification and ocean deoxygenation. The timescale of long-term impacts are centuries to millennia due to CO 2 's long atmospheric lifetime. The result
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3680-683: The Central Electricity Generating Board (CEGB) threatened to site a nuclear reactor on farmland in Luxulyan , Cornwall, Goldsmith was among those who organised a continuous sit-in of the land, with local people blocking the entrance and staffing round-the-clock garrisons to prevent CEGB contractors from starting their drilling work. An early example of an environmental protest camp , the High Court of England and Wales eventually awarded in favour of CEGB allowing
3795-556: The Climate Initiatives Fund , Richmond, London; a board member of the International Forum on Globalization , San Francisco, USA; a founder member of Marunui Conservation Ltd. , Mangawhai , New Zealand (1987); and a founder member and vice-president of ECOROPA , a European ecological club and think tank (1975). In 1997, after a political split with the editorial team of The Ecologist, Goldsmith
3910-661: The Earth's energy budget . Sulfate aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei and lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets. They also reduce the growth of raindrops , which makes clouds more reflective to incoming sunlight. Indirect effects of aerosols are the largest uncertainty in radiative forcing . While aerosols typically limit global warming by reflecting sunlight, black carbon in soot that falls on snow or ice can contribute to global warming. Not only does this increase
4025-641: The Green Party ), itself largely inspired by the Blueprint . Goldsmith's more conservative view of environmentalism put him at odds with socialist currents of thought which came to dominate within the Green Party. A deep ecologist and systems theorist , Goldsmith was an early proponent of the Gaia hypothesis , having previously developed a similar cybernetic concept of a self-regulating biosphere . A talented after-dinner speaker and raconteur, Goldsmith
4140-573: The Greenland ice sheet is already melting, but if global warming reaches levels between 1.7 °C and 2.3 °C, its melting will continue until it fully disappears. If the warming is later reduced to 1.5 °C or less, it will still lose a lot more ice than if the warming was never allowed to reach the threshold in the first place. While the ice sheets would melt over millennia, other tipping points would occur faster and give societies less time to respond. The collapse of major ocean currents like
4255-840: The Greenland ice sheet . Under the 2015 Paris Agreement , nations collectively agreed to keep warming "well under 2 °C". However, with pledges made under the Agreement, global warming would still reach about 2.8 °C (5.0 °F) by the end of the century. Limiting warming to 1.5 °C would require halving emissions by 2030 and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. Fossil fuel use can be phased out by conserving energy and switching to energy sources that do not produce significant carbon pollution. These energy sources include wind , solar , hydro , and nuclear power . Cleanly generated electricity can replace fossil fuels for powering transportation , heating buildings , and running industrial processes. Carbon can also be removed from
4370-707: The Industrial Revolution , naturally-occurring amounts of greenhouse gases caused the air near the surface to be about 33 °C warmer than it would have been in their absence. Human activity since the Industrial Revolution, mainly extracting and burning fossil fuels ( coal , oil , and natural gas ), has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In 2022, the concentrations of CO 2 and methane had increased by about 50% and 164%, respectively, since 1750. These CO 2 levels are higher than they have been at any time during
4485-468: The Industrial Revolution . Fossil fuel use, deforestation , and some agricultural and industrial practices release greenhouse gases . These gases absorb some of the heat that the Earth radiates after it warms from sunlight , warming the lower atmosphere. Carbon dioxide , the primary greenhouse gas driving global warming, has grown by about 50% and is at levels not seen for millions of years. Climate change has an increasingly large impact on
4600-518: The World Economic Forum , 14.5 million more deaths are expected due to climate change by 2050. 30% of the global population currently live in areas where extreme heat and humidity are already associated with excess deaths. By 2100, 50% to 75% of the global population would live in such areas. While total crop yields have been increasing in the past 50 years due to agricultural improvements, climate change has already decreased
4715-414: The carbon cycle . While plants on land and in the ocean absorb most excess emissions of CO 2 every year, that CO 2 is returned to the atmosphere when biological matter is digested, burns, or decays. Land-surface carbon sink processes, such as carbon fixation in the soil and photosynthesis, remove about 29% of annual global CO 2 emissions. The ocean has absorbed 20 to 30% of emitted CO 2 over
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4830-402: The climate system . Solar irradiance has been measured directly by satellites , and indirect measurements are available from the early 1600s onwards. Since 1880, there has been no upward trend in the amount of the Sun's energy reaching the Earth, in contrast to the warming of the lower atmosphere (the troposphere ). The upper atmosphere (the stratosphere ) would also be warming if the Sun
4945-971: The extinction of many species. The oceans have heated more slowly than the land, but plants and animals in the ocean have migrated towards the colder poles faster than species on land. Just as on land, heat waves in the ocean occur more frequently due to climate change, harming a wide range of organisms such as corals, kelp , and seabirds . Ocean acidification makes it harder for marine calcifying organisms such as mussels , barnacles and corals to produce shells and skeletons ; and heatwaves have bleached coral reefs . Harmful algal blooms enhanced by climate change and eutrophication lower oxygen levels, disrupt food webs and cause great loss of marine life. Coastal ecosystems are under particular stress. Almost half of global wetlands have disappeared due to climate change and other human impacts. Plants have come under increased stress from damage by insects. The effects of climate change are impacting humans everywhere in
5060-422: The holism of the early academic ecologists, and the functionalism employed by many anthropologists. His theory would later be published, in its final form, as The Way: An Ecological World View. ( see below ) Early on, Goldsmith had formulated a concept of the biosphere as an integrated cybernetic entity, the self-regulating parts (in which he included tribal societies) co-operating, largely unconsciously, for
5175-432: The socioeconomic scenario and the mitigation scenario, models produce atmospheric CO 2 concentrations that range widely between 380 and 1400 ppm. The environmental effects of climate change are broad and far-reaching, affecting oceans , ice, and weather. Changes may occur gradually or rapidly. Evidence for these effects comes from studying climate change in the past, from modelling, and from modern observations. Since
5290-625: The 10 years that Zac Goldsmith was editor, he developed The Ecologist into a more conventional-looking publication that could compete visually with other current affairs titles, while still maintaining its diverse content. In 2005 he became advisor to Conservative leader David Cameron 's Quality of Life Policy Group , and in 2010 became Member of Parliament for Richmond . His influence continued in supporting The Ecologist financially but Goldsmith stepped down as editor in June 2007, saying, "The magazine has to remain impartial and feel free to have
5405-426: The 14,000 copies of the edition. The issue was ultimately printed by a small London printer and went on to become the most-sold issue of The Ecologist ever. Edward Goldsmith, founder of The Ecologist , was born in 1928 in Paris and was the first major influence on the publication. With the inheritance left to him by his father, Major Frank Goldsmith , Edward fulfilled his idea of creating a magazine which doubled as
5520-405: The 18th century and 1970 there was little net warming, as the warming impact of greenhouse gas emissions was offset by cooling from sulfur dioxide emissions. Sulfur dioxide causes acid rain , but it also produces sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere, which reflect sunlight and cause global dimming . After 1970, the increasing accumulation of greenhouse gases and controls on sulfur pollution led to
5635-612: The 1950s, droughts and heat waves have appeared simultaneously with increasing frequency. Extremely wet or dry events within the monsoon period have increased in India and East Asia. Monsoonal precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere has increased since 1980. The rainfall rate and intensity of hurricanes and typhoons is likely increasing , and the geographic range likely expanding poleward in response to climate warming. Frequency of tropical cyclones has not increased as
5750-500: The 1980s, the terms global warming and climate change became more common, often being used interchangeably. Scientifically, global warming refers only to increased surface warming, while climate change describes both global warming and its effects on Earth's climate system , such as precipitation changes. Climate change can also be used more broadly to include changes to the climate that have happened throughout Earth's history. Global warming —used as early as 1975 —became
5865-435: The Arctic is another major feedback, this reduces the reflectivity of the Earth's surface in the region and accelerates Arctic warming . This additional warming also contributes to permafrost thawing, which releases methane and CO 2 into the atmosphere. Around half of human-caused CO 2 emissions have been absorbed by land plants and by the oceans. This fraction is not static and if future CO 2 emissions decrease,
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#17328017110605980-545: The CO 2 released by the chemical reactions for making cement , steel , aluminum , and fertilizer . Methane emissions come from livestock , manure, rice cultivation , landfills, wastewater, and coal mining , as well as oil and gas extraction . Nitrous oxide emissions largely come from the microbial decomposition of fertilizer . While methane only lasts in the atmosphere for an average of 12 years, CO 2 lasts much longer. The Earth's surface absorbs CO 2 as part of
6095-604: The Earth will be able to absorb up to around 70%. If they increase substantially, it'll still absorb more carbon than now, but the overall fraction will decrease to below 40%. This is because climate change increases droughts and heat waves that eventually inhibit plant growth on land, and soils will release more carbon from dead plants when they are warmer . The rate at which oceans absorb atmospheric carbon will be lowered as they become more acidic and experience changes in thermohaline circulation and phytoplankton distribution. Uncertainty over feedbacks, particularly cloud cover,
6210-468: The Human Environment at Stockholm in 1972. This period also saw the establishment of leading environmental organisations such as Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth . The Ecologist was created in 1970 by Edward Goldsmith as a forum for himself and other academics to publish papers that were deemed too radical to be published in other magazines or the mainstream press. It progressed from
6325-763: The May 2012 issue. In June 2012 The Ecologist merged with Resurgence Magazine . A new, merged Resurgence & Ecologist print publication appeared in September 2012. The Ecologist continues to publish online with new articles added daily. As global concern and campaigning around climate change has increased, The Ecologist has focused more firmly on climate change and its consequences, becoming more 'activist' in its approach and orienting its content towards campaigners for climate justice. Its 2023-6 Strategy document outlines: The environment movement has, because of climate breakdown, become increasingly aware and concerned about
6440-441: The absorption of sunlight, it also increases melting and sea-level rise. Limiting new black carbon deposits in the Arctic could reduce global warming by 0.2 °C by 2050. The effect of decreasing sulfur content of fuel oil for ships since 2020 is estimated to cause an additional 0.05 °C increase in global mean temperature by 2050. As the Sun is the Earth's primary energy source, changes in incoming sunlight directly affect
6555-530: The activists called upon to end their support of the World Bank. In 1991, with the financial support of his brother James, Goldsmith established the Goldsmith (JMG) Foundation supporting a diverse range of non-governmental organisations campaigning against environmentally destructive activities, along with organisations providing sustainable alternatives. In 1990, urged on by Arne Næss , Goldsmith left
6670-411: The atmosphere , for instance by increasing forest cover and farming with methods that capture carbon in soil . Before the 1980s it was unclear whether the warming effect of increased greenhouse gases was stronger than the cooling effect of airborne particulates in air pollution . Scientists used the term inadvertent climate modification to refer to human impacts on the climate at this time. In
6785-452: The atmosphere. volcanic CO 2 emissions are more persistent, but they are equivalent to less than 1% of current human-caused CO 2 emissions. Volcanic activity still represents the single largest natural impact (forcing) on temperature in the industrial era. Yet, like the other natural forcings, it has had negligible impacts on global temperature trends since the Industrial Revolution. The climate system's response to an initial forcing
6900-454: The biggest threats to global health in the 21st century. Scientists have warned about the irreversible harms it poses. Extreme weather events affect public health, and food and water security . Temperature extremes lead to increased illness and death. Climate change increases the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. It can affect transmission of infectious diseases , such as dengue fever and malaria . According to
7015-540: The carbon cycle, such as the fertilizing effect of CO 2 on plant growth. Feedbacks are expected to trend in a positive direction as greenhouse gas emissions continue, raising climate sensitivity. These feedback processes alter the pace of global warming. For instance, warmer air can hold more moisture in the form of water vapour , which is itself a potent greenhouse gas. Warmer air can also make clouds higher and thinner, and therefore more insulating, increasing climate warming. The reduction of snow cover and sea ice in
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#17328017110607130-551: The climate cycled through ice ages . One of the hotter periods was the Last Interglacial , around 125,000 years ago, where temperatures were between 0.5 °C and 1.5 °C warmer than before the start of global warming. This period saw sea levels 5 to 10 metres higher than today. The most recent glacial maximum 20,000 years ago was some 5–7 °C colder. This period has sea levels that were over 125 metres (410 ft) lower than today. Temperatures stabilized in
7245-403: The concerns taken up by today's Transition Movement . Goldsmith and Allen argued that rather than devise imaginary utopias , as did Marxist and liberal political theorists of the time, they should instead look to the example of existing tribal peoples , who, the authors claimed, were real-life working models of societies perfectly adapted to both their long-term survival needs and the needs of
7360-503: The controversial casino owner and conservationist John Aspinall, along with his anti- modernist stance and support for indigenous peoples , ensured that Goldsmith had many detractors throughout his life. Still, Goldsmith received affectionate support and respect from across the full spectrum of the environmental movement and from many of the people whose views and preoccupations were the focus of his theoretical and philosophical critique. Goldsmith's message continued to be sponsored around
7475-483: The corporatisation of the mass media. It was accused of being both left and right wing in its agenda, but did not follow the doctrine of any specific movement. It claimed to help readers ‘rethink basic assumptions’ about the world. On 8 April 2009, The Ecologist announced that it was relaunching solely online and that the July issue would be its last print edition. The website launched on 19 June 2009. Publication of The Ecologist's online, monthly newsletters ceased with
7590-684: The current interglacial period beginning 11,700 years ago . This period also saw the start of agriculture. Historical patterns of warming and cooling, like the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age , did not occur at the same time across different regions. Temperatures may have reached as high as those of the late 20th century in a limited set of regions. Climate information for that period comes from climate proxies , such as trees and ice cores . Around 1850 thermometer records began to provide global coverage. Between
7705-403: The degree of warming future emissions will cause when accounting for the strength of climate feedbacks . Models also predict the circulation of the oceans, the annual cycle of the seasons, and the flows of carbon between the land surface and the atmosphere. The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate current or past climates. Past models have underestimated
7820-427: The destroyed trees release CO 2 , and are not replaced by new trees, removing that carbon sink . Between 2001 and 2018, 27% of deforestation was from permanent clearing to enable agricultural expansion for crops and livestock. Another 24% has been lost to temporary clearing under the shifting cultivation agricultural systems. 26% was due to logging for wood and derived products, and wildfires have accounted for
7935-516: The destruction of the planet. In one episode, Goldsmith wrote an open letter to the then President of the World Bank, Alden W. Clausen , demanding that the bank "stop financing the destruction of the tropical world, the devastation of its remaining forests, the extermination of its wildlife and the impoverishment and starvation of its human inhabitants". At the time, the connection between large-scale development projects and social and environmental destruction had not been widely recognised, even within
8050-401: The distribution of heat and precipitation around the globe. The World Meteorological Organization estimates there is an 80% chance that global temperatures will exceed 1.5 °C warming for at least one year between 2024 and 2028. The chance of the 5-year average being above 1.5 °C is almost half. The IPCC expects the 20-year average global temperature to exceed +1.5 °C in
8165-444: The dominant direct influence on temperature from land use change. Thus, land use change to date is estimated to have a slight cooling effect. Air pollution, in the form of aerosols, affects the climate on a large scale. Aerosols scatter and absorb solar radiation. From 1961 to 1990, a gradual reduction in the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface was observed. This phenomenon is popularly known as global dimming , and
8280-778: The drilling to go ahead. The CEGB never went on to develop the site, however. In 1974, Goldsmith spent four months with the Gandhi Peace Foundation in New Delhi, comparing the Gandhian ( Sarvodaya ) movement with the Ecology movement in Europe. This led Goldsmith to forge close links with Indian environmental activists, in particular with the Chipko movement, including Sunderlal Bahuguna and Vandana Shiva . That
8395-610: The early 2030s. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (2021) included projections that by 2100 global warming is very likely to reach 1.0–1.8 °C under a scenario with very low emissions of greenhouse gases , 2.1–3.5 °C under an intermediate emissions scenario , or 3.3–5.7 °C under a very high emissions scenario . The warming will continue past 2100 in the intermediate and high emission scenarios, with future projections of global surface temperatures by year 2300 being similar to millions of years ago. The remaining carbon budget for staying beneath certain temperature increases
8510-536: The editorial team at The Ecologist. The title of Goldsmith's contribution in Paris being simply "Une société écologique: la seule alternative" ( An Ecological Society: The Only Alternative ). Later, in a controversial article for the Guardian newspaper, entitled "Black Shirts in Green Trousers", George Monbiot (a cofounder of the left-wing political party Respect ) accused Goldsmith of having "advocated
8625-423: The editorship of The Ecologist to Nicholas Hildyard, while taking time off to write his philosophical magnum opus The Way: an ecological worldview . The Way (1992) was the culmination and synthesis of more than four decades of theoretical development, embodying a "coherent worldview" by which Goldsmith would attempt to explain the self-inflicted problems facing the world and to propose a way out of them. Much of
8740-568: The enforced separation of Tutsis and Hutus in Rwanda and Protestants and Catholics in Ulster, on the grounds that they constitute 'distinct ethnic groups' and are thus culturally incapable of co-habitation" (a point rejected by Goldsmith ). That, along with other attacks, eventually led Goldsmith to counter his critics with his indepth rebuttal My Answer . Goldsmith's close association with his brother, Sir James Goldsmith, his lifelong friendship with
8855-430: The entire atmosphere—is ruled out because only the lower atmosphere has warmed. Atmospheric aerosols produce a smaller, cooling effect. Other drivers, such as changes in albedo , are less impactful. Greenhouse gases are transparent to sunlight , and thus allow it to pass through the atmosphere to heat the Earth's surface. The Earth radiates it as heat , and greenhouse gases absorb a portion of it. This absorption slows
8970-400: The environment . Deserts are expanding , while heat waves and wildfires are becoming more common. Amplified warming in the Arctic has contributed to thawing permafrost , retreat of glaciers and sea ice decline . Higher temperatures are also causing more intense storms , droughts, and other weather extremes . Rapid environmental change in mountains , coral reefs , and the Arctic
9085-516: The environmental movement. In 1989, Goldsmith helped to organise an international campaign calling for an immediate end to the destruction of the world's remaining forests with its detrimental effects on indigenous cultures , biodiversity and global climate . The campaign raised over 3 million signatures, which were taken in wheelbarrows to the UN's headquarters in New York City. Goldsmith and
9200-436: The financier James Goldsmith . Edward Goldsmith was also the founding editor and publisher of The Ecologist . Known for his outspoken views opposing industrial society and economic development, he expressed a strong sympathy for the ways and values of traditional peoples . He co-authored the influential A Blueprint for Survival with Robert Allen , becoming a founding member of the political party "People" (later renamed
9315-469: The first issue of the new Resurgence & Ecologist appearing in print in September 2012. The Ecologist was based in London. The Ecologist emerged from the first wave of environmental awareness that followed the seminal book Silent Spring by Rachel Carson , which highlighted the dangers of bio-accumulative pesticides within food chains, and that culminated in the first United Nations Conference on
9430-604: The global climate system has grown with only brief pauses since at least 1970, and over 90% of this extra energy has been stored in the ocean . The rest has heated the atmosphere , melted ice, and warmed the continents. The Northern Hemisphere and the North Pole have warmed much faster than the South Pole and Southern Hemisphere . The Northern Hemisphere not only has much more land, but also more seasonal snow cover and sea ice . As these surfaces flip from reflecting
9545-479: The impacts of the fossil fuel economy on society and on nature. The Ecologist provides information that is vital to all the campaigns attempting to end the fossil fuel economy and usher in an era of renewable energy and regenerative alternatives from degrowth policies to Green New Deals. It has also developed a more explicit anti-capitalist line than under Goldsmith's leadership, with its 2023-6 Strategy document arguing: "the impacts of unregulated capitalist economies on
9660-572: The last 14 million years. Concentrations of methane are far higher than they were over the last 800,000 years. Global human-caused greenhouse gas emissions in 2019 were equivalent to 59 billion tonnes of CO 2 . Of these emissions, 75% was CO 2 , 18% was methane , 4% was nitrous oxide, and 2% was fluorinated gases . CO 2 emissions primarily come from burning fossil fuels to provide energy for transport , manufacturing, heating , and electricity. Additional CO 2 emissions come from deforestation and industrial processes , which include
9775-436: The last two decades. CO 2 is only removed from the atmosphere for the long term when it is stored in the Earth's crust, which is a process that can take millions of years to complete. Around 30% of Earth's land area is largely unusable for humans ( glaciers , deserts , etc.), 26% is forests , 10% is shrubland and 34% is agricultural land . Deforestation is the main land use change contributor to global warming, as
9890-441: The last: internal climate variability processes can make any year 0.2 °C warmer or colder than the average. From 1998 to 2013, negative phases of two such processes, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) caused a short slower period of warming called the " global warming hiatus ". After the "hiatus", the opposite occurred, with years like 2023 exhibiting temperatures well above even
10005-424: The living world on which they depended. The tribal peoples alone, the authors argued, had demonstrated a viable means by which the most pressing problems facing humanity could be answered successfully. Such societies were characterised by their small, human-scale communities, low-impact technologies, successful population controls, sustainable resource management, holistic and ecologically integrated worldviews and
10120-538: The magazine financially afloat for years." A recommendation of the Blueprint led directly to the creation of the PEOPLE Party which became the Ecology Party and then the Green Party (UK) . A Blueprint for Survival follows through the consequences of what happens when humans disrupt the ecosystems in which they exist. It explains that when these systems are disrupted, they alter other ecosystems all over
10235-603: The media's attention and highlighted the issues. He again stood for the now-renamed Ecology Party at the European elections in 1979 , now winning a more respectable portion of the vote . In 1973, buoyed by the success of the Blueprint and a sudden rise in public awareness of ecological issues, partly brought about by the Stockholm Conference and the publication of the Club of Rome 's The Limits to Growth in
10350-413: The more popular term after NASA climate scientist James Hansen used it in his 1988 testimony in the U.S. Senate . Since the 2000s, climate change has increased usage. Various scientists, politicians and media may use the terms climate crisis or climate emergency to talk about climate change, and may use the term global heating instead of global warming . Over the last few million years
10465-535: The mutual benefit of the whole, a view that anticipated aspects of the Gaia thesis, of which he was to become a leading proponent. Goldsmith was also a critic of neo-Darwinism . He claimed that it is a reductionist theory and that if you understand evolution , it is necessary to "abandon the reductionistic and mechanistic paradigm of science". Having established The Ecologist in 1969 with founding editors Robert Allen, Jean Liedloff , and Peter Bunyard, Goldsmith
10580-476: The natural environment globally are devastating, representing an existential threat to human societies and life itself in the medium to long term." In 1972, The Ecologist published A Blueprint for Survival (1972), to which an entire issue was dedicated. Writing in the Guardian newspaper , former contributor Fred Pearce described it as "a radical green manifesto that went on to sell 750,000 copies and kept
10695-619: The rate at which heat escapes into space, trapping heat near the Earth's surface and warming it over time. While water vapour (≈50%) and clouds (≈25%) are the biggest contributors to the greenhouse effect, they primarily change as a function of temperature and are therefore mostly considered to be feedbacks that change climate sensitivity . On the other hand, concentrations of gases such as CO 2 (≈20%), tropospheric ozone , CFCs and nitrous oxide are added or removed independently from temperature, and are therefore considered to be external forcings that change global temperatures. Before
10810-522: The rate of Arctic shrinkage and underestimated the rate of precipitation increase. Sea level rise since 1990 was underestimated in older models, but more recent models agree well with observations. The 2017 United States-published National Climate Assessment notes that "climate models may still be underestimating or missing relevant feedback processes". Additionally, climate models may be unable to adequately predict short-term regional climatic shifts. A subset of climate models add societal factors to
10925-622: The rate of yield growth . Fisheries have been negatively affected in multiple regions. While agricultural productivity has been positively affected in some high latitude areas, mid- and low-latitude areas have been negatively affected. According to the World Economic Forum, an increase in drought in certain regions could cause 3.2 million deaths from malnutrition by 2050 and stunting in children. With 2 °C warming, global livestock headcounts could decline by 7–10% by 2050, as less animal feed will be available. If
11040-405: The recent average. This is why the temperature change is defined in terms of a 20-year average, which reduces the noise of hot and cold years and decadal climate patterns, and detects the long-term signal. A wide range of other observations reinforce the evidence of warming. The upper atmosphere is cooling, because greenhouse gases are trapping heat near the Earth's surface, and so less heat
11155-411: The release of chemical compounds that influence clouds, and by changing wind patterns. In tropic and temperate areas the net effect is to produce significant warming, and forest restoration can make local temperatures cooler. At latitudes closer to the poles, there is a cooling effect as forest is replaced by snow-covered (and more reflective) plains. Globally, these increases in surface albedo have been
11270-476: The remaining 23%. Some forests have not been fully cleared, but were already degraded by these impacts. Restoring these forests also recovers their potential as a carbon sink. Local vegetation cover impacts how much of the sunlight gets reflected back into space ( albedo ), and how much heat is lost by evaporation . For instance, the change from a dark forest to grassland makes the surface lighter, causing it to reflect more sunlight. Deforestation can also modify
11385-421: The same year. Goldsmith and his editorial team moved from their offices in London to relocate to rural Cornwall, in the far west of England. Goldsmith and his colleagues bought themselves farms, and for the following 17 years, they attempted to form a small-scale, relatively self-sufficient community of their own, and The Ecologist continued to be produced on-site, in between their other chores. In 1977, when
11500-583: The sea levels by at least 3.3 m (10 ft 10 in) over approximately 2000 years. Recent warming has driven many terrestrial and freshwater species poleward and towards higher altitudes . For instance, the range of hundreds of North American birds has shifted northward at an average rate of 1.5 km/year over the past 55 years. Higher atmospheric CO 2 levels and an extended growing season have resulted in global greening. However, heatwaves and drought have reduced ecosystem productivity in some regions. The future balance of these opposing effects
11615-473: The spread of economic development and its accompanying industrialisation, far from being progressive as claimed, was actually the root cause of social and environmental destruction. In London, at meetings of the Primitive People's Fund (the committee that founded Survival International ), Goldsmith teamed up with the fund's treasurer Robert Prescott-Allen , the explorer Jean Liedloff , and
11730-564: The threat of desertification from the intensive farming practised in the area, which Goldsmith emphasised with the help of a Bactrian camel supplied by Aspinall. Goldsmith was in turn accompanied by bearded supporters dressed in the garb of Arab sheiks, the implication being that if modern oil-intensive farming practises were allowed to continue, the camel would be the only viable means of transport left in Suffolk . Goldsmith lost his deposit , but his unorthodox campaign succeeded in attracting
11845-642: The usual gamut of articles examining pollution, overpopulation, deforestation, soil erosion, corporate power, large dams, and, not least, the World Bank 's alleged role in "financing the destruction of our planet". Signed by over thirty of the leading scientists of the day, including Sir Julian Huxley , Sir Frank Fraser Darling , Sir Peter Medawar , Sir Peter Scott , and C. H. Waddington , Goldsmith and his fellow editor Robert Allen made headlines in January 1972 with A Blueprint for Survival . The Blueprint
11960-480: The work was already mature in Goldsmith's mind by the time that he published the first issues of The Ecologist in 1970. In addition to the UK Ecologist , Goldsmith later helped to found and support The Ecologist as independent enterprises in many parts of the world: He continued to attend key meetings around the world and involved himself with a variety of campaign organisations by becoming President of
12075-507: The world, in particular through his work with the International Forum on Globalization (IFG). With his first wife, Gillian Marion Pretty (later wife of "Comte" Jean-Baptiste de Monpezat , brother of Prince Consort Henrik of Denmark ), he had two daughters and a son: With his second wife, Katherine Victoria James, he had two sons: Benedict Goldsmith and Zeno Goldsmith. He had a brother, James Goldsmith , through whom he
12190-438: The world. Impacts can be observed on all continents and ocean regions, with low-latitude, less developed areas facing the greatest risk. Continued warming has potentially "severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts" for people and ecosystems. The risks are unevenly distributed, but are generally greater for disadvantaged people in developing and developed countries. The World Health Organization calls climate change one of
12305-464: The world. Written in an age before climate change was understood, A Blueprint for Survival stands as one of the earliest forecasts of many of the environmental problems the world faces today. In the ' Monsanto ' issue of September 1998, The Ecologist assembled a selection of articles critical of agri-business giant Monsanto’s environmental record. The Ecologist's printing firm at the time, Penwells, feared libel litigation from Monsanto and pulped
12420-428: Was a far reaching proposal for a radical transition to a largely decentralised and deindustrialised society, an attempt to prevent what the authors referred to as " the breakdown of society and the irreversible disruption of the life-support systems on this planet". It became a key text for the early Green movement, selling over half a million copies, and it was translated into 16 languages. In many ways, it anticipated
12535-523: Was an articulate spokesman and campaigner, receiving a number of awards for his work protecting the natural world and highlighting the importance and plight of indigenous peoples , including an honorary Right Livelihood Award and the Chevalier de la Legion d'Honneur . Goldsmith (widely known as Teddy) was born in Paris in 1928 to a German Jewish father, Frank Goldsmith , and French mother, Marcelle Mouiller. He entered Millfield School , Somerset, as
12650-533: Was left to run the magazine on his own. Having been absent for some years, he brought in the International Society for Ecology and Culture (ISEC) to act as the editorial team. His nephew Zac , who was then working for ISEC, eventually took over the editorship on their behalf. The split led to a period of often-bitter criticism from some members of the political left in the environmental movement, which, compounded with failing health, resulted in
12765-524: Was sending more energy to Earth, but instead, it has been cooling. This is consistent with greenhouse gases preventing heat from leaving the Earth's atmosphere. Explosive volcanic eruptions can release gases, dust and ash that partially block sunlight and reduce temperatures, or they can send water vapour into the atmosphere, which adds to greenhouse gases and increases temperatures. These impacts on temperature only last for several years, because both water vapour and volcanic material have low persistence in
12880-454: Was that the Board of the International Society for Ecology and Culture (ISEC), directed by Helena Norberg-Hodge , should manage The Ecologist . Instead, Zac Goldsmith, who was then working for ISEC, became editor, as the other members of ISEC were occupied with other projects. Zac Goldsmith, born in 1975, joined at 22 years old as an intern before becoming editor of The Ecologist . In
12995-408: Was the magazine's deputy editor from 1999 to 2001, Tom Hodgkinson , Joss Garman , Chris Busby and Georgina Downs . In its magazine format, The Ecologist had an average circulation of 20,000 per issue. In its online incarnation, in addition to the website there was a weekly e-newsletter and a monthly subscriber PDF newsletter, the last issue of which was published in May 2012. The Ecologist has
13110-541: Was to have a major influence on Goldsmith's approach to environmental activism and led to a special issue of The Ecologist on the subject. In 1984, together with his colleague Nicholas Hildyard , Goldsmith authored a multi-volume report on the destructive effects of large-scale, hydroelectric dams. It was the beginning of a long attack against the International Monetary Fund and World Bank , which Goldsmith and his colleagues accused of financing
13225-472: Was to use the journal as a platform for his theoretical concerns with regular articles appearing under the heading "Towards a Unified Science". The journal also became an important forum for the early green movement , with articles focusing on the relevance and survival of hunter-gatherer societies, alternative technology and organic farming, together with prescient articles about climate change, resource depletion, and nuclear accidents. They were accompanied by
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