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96-561: Herndon proved that the paper contained multiple errors, provoking widespread international interest. The Reinhart–Rogoff paper was frequently cited during the 2012 U.S. presidential election campaign . It was also frequently cited among policymakers in congress, including in the drafting of the Bowles-Simpson report . However, there are differing views on the actual impact the original paper may have had on policy making. The findings have been described as "shocking" and as having rocked

192-2131: A concession speech until Obama's victory was announced. Iraq War Invasion (2003) [REDACTED] Republic of Iraq Coalition forces (2003) 309,000–584,799 [REDACTED]   United States : 192,000–466,985 personnel [REDACTED]   United Kingdom : 45,000 [REDACTED]   Australia : 2,000 [REDACTED]   Poland : 194 [REDACTED] Peshmerga : 70,000 [REDACTED] Coalition forces (2004–09) 176,000 at peak [REDACTED] United States Forces – Iraq (2010–11) 112,000 at activation Security contractors 6,000–7,000 (estimate) Iraqi Security Forces 805,269 [REDACTED] Iraqi Armed Forces : 375,000 [REDACTED] Special Iraqi Republican Guard : 12,000 [REDACTED] Iraqi Republican Guard : 75,000 [REDACTED] Fedayeen Saddam : 30,000 [REDACTED] Sunni Insurgents ≈70,000 (2007) Mahdi Army ≈60,000 (2007) Iraqi Security Forces (post-Saddam) Killed : 17,690 Wounded : 40,000+ Coalition forces Killed : 4,825 (4,507 US, 179 UK, 139 other) Missing/captured (US): 17 (9 died in captivity, 8 rescued) Wounded : 32,776+ (32,292 US, 315 UK, 210+ other ) Injured/diseases/other medical* : 51,139 (47,541 US, 3,598 UK) Contractors Killed : 3,650 Wounded & injured : 43,880 Awakening Councils Killed : 1,002+ Wounded : 500+ (2007), 828 (2008) Iraqi combatant dead (invasion period): 7,600–45,000 Insurgents (post-Saddam) Killed : 26,544+ killed by Coalition and ISF forces (2003–11), excludes inter-insurgent fighting and noncombat losses (4,000 foreign fighters killed by Sep. 2006, all causes) Detainees : 60,000 (US and Iraqi-held, peak in 2007) 12,000 (Iraqi-held, in 2010 only) 119,752 insurgents arrested (2003–2007), of this about 1/3 were imprisoned for longer than four years Documented deaths from violence : Iraq Body Count (2003 – 14 December 2011): 103,160–113,728 civilian deaths recorded and 12,438 new deaths added from

288-459: A sectarian civil war between Iraq's Shia majority and Sunni minority, and contributed to a lengthy insurgency. In response, the US deployed an additional 170,000 troops during the 2007 troop surge , which helped stabilize parts of the country. In 2008, President Bush agreed to withdraw all US combat troops, a process completed in 2011 under President Barack Obama . The primary justifications for

384-437: A combined total of more than $ 2 billion. Super PACs constituted nearly one-fourth of the total financing, with most coming from pro-Romney PACs. Obama raised $ 690 million through online channels, beating his record of $ 500 million in 2008. Most of the advertising in the 2012 presidential campaign was decidedly negative—80% of Obama's ads and 84% of Romney's ads were negative. The tax-exempt non-profit Americans for Prosperity ,

480-403: A majority of the national popular vote more than once, and the first Democrat to do so since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944 . Obama also became only the fifth Democratic president in history to win a second consecutive term after Andrew Jackson , Woodrow Wilson , Franklin D. Roosevelt, and Bill Clinton , as well as the third sitting president in a row (after Clinton and George W. Bush ) to win

576-493: A manufacturer of solar panels that went bankrupt, an advertising campaign described by The Wall Street Journal in November 2011 as "perhaps the biggest attack on Mr. Obama so far". The Commission on Presidential Debates held four debates during the last weeks of the campaign: three presidential and one vice-presidential. The major issues debated were the economy and jobs, the federal budget deficit, taxation and spending,

672-538: A militant known as Abdallah al-Iraqi had been sent to Iraq several times between 1997 and 2000 for help in acquiring poisons and gasses. Abdallah al-Iraqi characterized the relationship he forged with Iraqi officials as successful." As a follow-up to Powell's presentation, the United States, the United Kingdom, Poland, Italy , Australia, Denmark , Japan , and Spain proposed a resolution authorizing

768-497: A million deaths , including more than 100,000 civilians. Many deaths occurred during the insurgency and subsequent civil war. The conflict had lasting geopolitical effects, contributing to the emergence of the 2013–2017 War in Iraq , which caused over 155,000 deaths and displaced millions of Iraqis. The war severely damaged the US' international reputation, and Bush's popularity declined sharply. UK Prime Minister Tony Blair 's support for

864-536: A month later, with Newt Gingrich , Mitt Romney , former Utah governor Jon Huntsman , and Minnesota congresswoman Michele Bachmann participating, and Gary Johnson excluded. A total of thirteen debates were held before the Iowa caucuses. The first major event of the campaign was the Ames Straw Poll , which took place in Iowa on August 13, 2011. Michele Bachmann won the straw poll (this ultimately proved to be

960-746: A policy of containment . This policy involved numerous economic sanctions by the UN Security Council ; the enforcement of Iraqi no-fly zones declared by the US and the UK to protect the Kurds in Iraqi Kurdistan and Shias in the south from aerial attacks by the Iraqi government, and ongoing inspections to ensure Iraq's compliance with United Nations resolutions concerning Iraqi weapons of mass destruction . The inspections were carried out by

1056-441: A second term. As of 2024, this remains the last U.S. presidential election in which an incumbent president won re-election to a second consecutive term and the last U.S. presidential election in which the incumbent White House party won the election. Obama did not hold onto Indiana , North Carolina , or Nebraska's 2nd congressional district , but crucially won all 18 " blue wall " states and defeated Romney in other swing states

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1152-510: A sharp rise in fundraising, including from nominally independent Super PACs . Obama defeated Romney, winning a majority of both the Electoral College and the popular vote . Obama won 332 electoral votes and 51.1% of the popular vote compared to Romney's 206 electoral votes and 47.2%. The results of the electoral vote were certified by Congress on January 4, 2013. Obama was the first president since Ronald Reagan in 1984 to win

1248-492: A so-called "outside group", that is, a political advocacy group that is not a political action committee or super-PAC, ran a television advertising campaign opposing Obama described by The Washington Post as "early and relentless". Americans for Prosperity spent $ 8.4 million in swing states on television advertisements denouncing the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 loan guarantee to Solyndra ,

1344-639: Is Iraqi oil ," and questioning if Bush deliberately undermined the U.N. "because the secretary-general of the United Nations [was] a black man". In February 2003, the US Army's top general, Eric Shinseki , told the Senate Armed Services Committee that it would take "several hundred thousand soldiers" to secure Iraq. Two days later, US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said the post-war troop commitment would be less than

1440-613: Is an accepted version of this page Barack Obama Democratic Barack Obama Democratic Presidential elections were held in the United States on November 6, 2012. Incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate , incumbent Vice President Joe Biden , were elected to a second term. They defeated the Republican ticket of former Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney and U.S. Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin , who later became Speaker of

1536-627: Is negative for every state that Romney won). Maine and Nebraska each allow for their election results votes to be split between candidates. The winner within each congressional district gets one electoral vote for the district. The winner of the statewide vote gets two additional electoral votes. In the 2012 election, all four of Maine's electoral votes were won by Obama and all five of Nebraska's electoral votes were won by Romney. Red denotes states (or congressional districts that contribute an electoral vote) won by Republican Mitt Romney; blue denotes those won by Democrat Barack Obama. State where

1632-687: Is particularly sparse for Iraqi nuclear programs." Similarly, the British government found no evidence that Iraq possessed nuclear weapons or any other weapons of mass destruction and that Iraq posed no threat to the West, a conclusion British diplomats shared with the US government. Key US allies in NATO , such as the United Kingdom, agreed with the US actions, while France and Germany were critical of plans to invade Iraq, arguing instead for continued diplomacy and weapons inspections. After considerable debate,

1728-706: The German Federal Intelligence Service and the British Secret Intelligence Service that the source was untrustworthy, Powell's presentation included information based on the claims of Rafid Ahmed Alwan al-Janabi, codenamed "Curveball" , an Iraqi emigrant living in Germany who also later admitted that his claims had been false. Powell also claimed that Iraq was covertly harbouring and supporting al-Qaeda networks. Additionally, Powell alleged that al-Qaeda

1824-459: The Iraqi army in the north. The battle against Ansar al-Islam, known as Operation Viking Hammer , led to the death of a substantial number of militants and the uncovering of a chemical weapons facility at Sargat. At 5:34 am Baghdad time on 20 March 2003 (9:34 pm, 19 March EST) the surprise military invasion of Iraq began. There was no declaration of war. The 2003 invasion of Iraq

1920-738: The Ohio law , pushing for a petition and statewide referendum to repeal it in time for the 2012 election. In addition, the Pennsylvania legislature proposed a plan to change its representation in the electoral college from the traditional winner-take-all model to a district-by-district model. As the governorship and both houses of its legislature were Republican-controlled, the move was viewed by some as an attempt to reduce Democratic chances. Ultimately they did not do it, leaving their winner take all format intact as of 2020. With an incumbent president running for re-election against token opposition ,

2016-489: The Republican National Convention officially named Romney the party's presidential nominee. Romney formally accepted the delegates' nomination on August 30, 2012. [REDACTED] Four other parties nominated candidates that had ballot access or write-in access to at least 270 electoral votes, the minimum number of votes needed in the 2012 election to win the presidency through a majority of

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2112-568: The Second Gulf War , was a prolonged conflict in Iraq lasting from 2003 to 2011. It began with the invasion by a United States-led coalition , which resulted in the overthrow of the Ba'athist government of Saddam Hussein . The conflict persisted as an insurgency arose against coalition forces and the newly established Iraqi government. US forces were officially withdrawn in 2011. In 2014,

2208-634: The United Nations , declared the invasion illegal under international law, as it violated the UN Charter . The 2016 Chilcot Report , a British inquiry, concluded the war was unnecessary, as peaceful alternatives had not been fully explored. In 2005, Iraq held multi-party elections , and Nouri al-Maliki became Prime Minister in 2006, a position he held until 2014. His government's policies alienated Iraq's Sunni minority, exacerbating sectarian tensions. The war led to an estimated 150,000 to over

2304-676: The United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM). UNSCOM, in cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency , worked to ensure that Iraq destroyed its chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons and facilities. In the decade following the Gulf War, the United Nations passed 16 Security Council resolutions calling for the complete elimination of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. Member states communicated their frustration over

2400-603: The al-Faw Peninsula to secure the oil fields there and the important ports, supported by warships of the Royal Navy , Polish Navy , and Royal Australian Navy . The United States Marine Corps ' 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit , attached to 3 Commando Brigade and the Polish Special Forces unit GROM , attacked the port of Umm Qasr , while the British Army 's 16 Air Assault Brigade secured

2496-487: The conservative primary electorate found him to be too moderate for their political views. As a result, a number of potential "anti-Romney" candidates were put forward, including future president Donald Trump , former Alaska governor and 2008 vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin , New Jersey governor Chris Christie , and Texas governor Rick Perry , the last of whom decided to run in August 2011. Perry did poorly in

2592-585: The poll tax and all the Jim Crow burdens on voting, the determined effort to limit the franchise that we see today". He was referring to Jim Crow laws passed in southern states near the turn of the twentieth century that disenfranchised most blacks from voting and excluded them from the political process for more than six decades. Clinton said the moves would effectively disenfranchise core voter blocs that trend liberal, including college students, black people , and Latinos . The Obama campaign fought against

2688-522: The " Iraq Resolution ", which authorized the President to "use any means necessary" against Iraq. Americans polled in January 2003 widely favored further diplomacy over an invasion. Later that year, however, Americans began to agree with Bush's plan (see popular opinion in the United States on the invasion of Iraq ). The US government engaged in an elaborate domestic public relations campaign to promote

2784-507: The Bush administration's national security team actively debated an invasion of Iraq. On the day of the attacks, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld asked his aides for: "best info fast. Judge whether good enough hit Saddam Hussein at the same time. Not only Osama bin Laden ." President Bush spoke with Rumsfeld on 21 November and instructed him to conduct a confidential review of OPLAN 1003 ,

2880-508: The Charter point of view, it was illegal." The first Central Intelligence Agency team entered Iraq on 10 July 2002. This team was composed of members of the CIA's Special Activities Division and was later joined by members of the US military's elite Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC). Together, they prepared for an invasion by conventional forces. These efforts consisted of persuading

2976-607: The House and Georgia Congressman Newt Gingrich , and Texas congressman Ron Paul , among other candidates. The campaigns focused heavily on domestic issues, and debate centered largely around sound responses to the Great Recession . Other issues included long-term federal budget issues, the future of social insurance programs , and the Affordable Care Act , Obama's marquee legislative program. Foreign policy

Thomas Herndon - Misplaced Pages Continue

3072-562: The House of Representatives. As the incumbent President , Obama secured the Democratic nomination without serious opposition. The Republicans experienced a competitive primary . Romney was consistently competitive in the polls and won the support of many party leaders, but he faced challenges from a number of more conservative contenders. Romney secured his party's nomination in May, defeating former senator Rick Santorum , former Speaker of

3168-525: The IAEA "found no evidence or plausible indication of the revival of a nuclear weapons program in Iraq"; the IAEA concluded that certain items which could have been used in nuclear enrichment centrifuges, such as aluminum tubes, were in fact intended for other uses. In March 2003, Blix said progress had been made in inspections, and no evidence of WMD had been found. In October 2002, the US Congress passed

3264-860: The Iraq War Logs Associated Press (March 2003 – April 2009): 110,600 Iraqi deaths in total Statistical estimates Lancet survey ** (March 2003 – July 2006): 654,965 (95% CI: 392,979–942,636) Iraq Family Health Survey *** (March 2003 – July 2006): 151,000 (95% CI: 104,000–223,000) Opinion Research Business ** : (March 2003 – August 2007): 1,033,000 (95% CI: 946,258–1,120,000) PLOS Medicine Study** : (March 2003 – June 2011): 405,000 (60% violent) (95% CI: 48,000–751,000) Invasion (2003) Post-invasion insurgency (2003–2006) Civil war (2006–2008) Insurgency (2008–2011) The Iraq War ( Arabic : حرب العراق , romanized :  ḥarb al-ʿirāq ), also referred to as

3360-636: The Iraqi government became official US foreign policy with the enactment of the Iraq Liberation Act . The act provided $ 97 million for Iraqi "democratic opposition organizations" to "establish a program to support a transition to democracy in Iraq." This legislation contrasted with the terms set out in United Nations Security Council Resolution 687 , which focused on weapons and weapons programs and made no mention of regime change. One month after

3456-555: The Republicans had won in 2000 and 2004 , most notably Colorado , Florida , Nevada , Ohio , and Virginia . Ultimately, of the nine swing states identified by The Washington Post in the 2012 election, Obama won eight, losing only North Carolina. This is the most recent presidential election in which the Democratic candidate won the states of Iowa , Ohio , and Florida , along with Maine's 2nd congressional district ,

3552-497: The Senate voted in favor of it. Only one Republican Senator, Lincoln Chafee , voted against it. The Senate's lone Independent, Jim Jeffords , voted against it. Retired US Marine, former Navy Secretary and future US senator Jim Webb wrote shortly before the vote, "Those who are pushing for a unilateral war in Iraq know full well that there is no exit strategy if we invade." In the same period, Pope John Paul II publicly condemned

3648-553: The UK at a Labour Party conference he said: "As a preemptive action today, however well-justified, may come back with unwelcome consequences in the future... I don't care how precise your bombs and your weapons are when you set them off, innocent people will die." Of 209 House Democrats in Congress, 126 voted against the Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq Resolution of 2002 , although 29 of 50 Democrats in

3744-472: The UN Security Council adopted a compromise resolution, UN Security Council Resolution 1441 , which authorized the resumption of weapons inspections and promised "serious consequences" for non-compliance. Security Council members France and Russia made clear that they did not consider these consequences to include the use of force to overthrow the Iraqi government. The US and UK ambassadors to

3840-550: The UN publicly confirmed this reading of the resolution. Resolution 1441 set up inspections by the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) and the International Atomic Energy Agency . Saddam accepted the resolution on 13 November and inspectors returned to Iraq under the direction of UNMOVIC chairman Hans Blix and IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei . As of February 2003,

3936-635: The US became re-engaged in Iraq, leading a new coalition under Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve , as the conflict evolved into the ongoing insurgency . The Iraq invasion was part of the Bush administration 's broader war on terror , launched in response to the September 11 attacks . In October 2002, the US Congress passed a resolution granting Bush the authority to use military force against Iraq. The war began on March 20, 2003, when

Thomas Herndon - Misplaced Pages Continue

4032-501: The US moved towards a more aggressive Iraq policy. The Republican Party 's campaign platform in the 2000 election called for "full implementation" of the Iraq Liberation Act as "a starting point" in a plan to "remove" Saddam. Little formal movement towards an invasion occurred until the September 11 attacks , although plans were drafted and meetings were held from the first days of his administration. Following 9/11,

4128-408: The US, British and other forces expected. The Iraqi regime had prepared to fight both a conventional and irregular, asymmetric warfare at the same time, conceding territory when faced with superior conventional forces, largely armored, but launching smaller-scale attacks in the rear using fighters dressed in civilian and paramilitary clothes. Coalition troops launched air and amphibious assaults on

4224-606: The US, joined by the UK , Australia , and Poland , initiated a " shock and awe " bombing campaign. Following the bombings, coalition forces launched a ground invasion, defeating Iraqi forces and toppling the Ba'athist regime. Saddam Hussein was captured in 2003 and executed in 2006. The fall of Saddam's regime created a power vacuum, which, along with the Coalition Provisional Authority 's mismanagement, fueled

4320-521: The United States' knowledge on different aspects of the Iraqi WMD program ranged from essentially zero to about 75%, and that knowledge was particularly weak on aspects of a possible nuclear weapons program: "Our knowledge of the Iraqi nuclear weapons program is based largely – perhaps 90% – on analysis of imprecise intelligence," they concluded. "Our assessments rely heavily on analytic assumptions and judgment rather than hard evidence. The evidentiary base

4416-691: The United States, 45,000 British soldiers, 2,000 Australian soldiers and 194 Polish soldiers from Special Forces unit GROM sent to Kuwait for the invasion. The invasion force was also supported by Iraqi Kurdish militia troops , estimated to number upwards of 70,000. According to General Franks, there were eight objectives of the invasion: "First, ending the regime of Saddam Hussein. Second, to identify, isolate, and eliminate Iraq's weapons of mass destruction. Third, to search for, to capture, and to drive out terrorists from that country. Fourth, to collect such intelligence as we can relate to terrorist networks. Fifth, to collect such intelligence as we can relate to

4512-464: The acme of her campaign). Pawlenty withdrew from the race after a poor showing in the straw poll, as did Thaddeus McCotter , the only candidate among those who qualified for the ballot who was refused entrance into the debate. It became clear at around this point in the nomination process that while Romney was considered to be the likely nominee by the Republican establishment, a large segment of

4608-798: The caucuses would eventually lead to Ron Paul earning 22 of the 28 Iowa delegates to the Republican National Convention. Newt Gingrich won South Carolina by a surprisingly large margin, and Romney won only in New Hampshire. A number of candidates dropped out at this point in the nomination process. Bachmann withdrew after finishing sixth in the Iowa caucuses, Huntsman withdrew after coming in third in New Hampshire, and Perry withdrew when polls showed him drawing low numbers in South Carolina. Santorum, who had previously run an essentially one-state campaign in Iowa,

4704-485: The commanders of several Iraqi military divisions to surrender rather than oppose the invasion, and identifying all the initial leadership targets during very high risk reconnaissance missions. Most importantly, their efforts organized the Kurdish Peshmerga to become the northern front of the invasion. Together this force defeated Ansar al-Islam in Iraqi Kurdistan before the invasion and then defeated

4800-468: The day of the election, spread betting firm Spreadex were offering an Obama Electoral College Votes spread of 296–300 to Romney's 239–243. In reality Obama's victory over Romney was far greater, winning 332 electoral votes to Romney's 206. Romney lost all but one of nine battleground states , and received 47 percent of the nationwide popular vote to Obama's 51 percent. Of the 3,154 counties/districts/independent cities making returns, Romney won

4896-584: The debates, however, and Herman Cain and then Newt Gingrich came to the fore in October and November. Due to a number of scandals, Cain withdrew just before the end of the year, after having ballot placement in several states. Around the same time, Johnson, who had been able to get into only one other debate, withdrew to seek the Libertarian Party nomination. For the first time in modern Republican Party history, three different candidates won

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4992-511: The detail of the original spreadsheet and found several issues: The basic conclusion that countries with indebtedness rates above 90% of GDP have lower growth rates still held, but the most spectacular results disappeared, the relationship was much gentler and there were numerous exceptions to the rule. These results were published on 15 April 2013 as a draft working paper, and in 2014 in the peer-reviewed Cambridge Journal of Economics . 2012 United States presidential election This

5088-458: The economics world. Publications such as The Washington Post had for several years taken the conclusions of the Reinhart–Rogoff paper as an "economic consensus view." New York magazine wrote that Herndon "just used part of his spring semester to shake the intellectual foundation of the global austerity movement." During his graduate studies in a class with Professor Michael Ash, Herndon

5184-714: The election. On November 30, 2012, it was revealed that shortly before the election, internal polling done by the Romney campaign had shown Romney ahead in Colorado and New Hampshire, tied in Iowa, and within a few points of Obama in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Ohio. In addition, the Romney campaign had assumed that they would win Florida, North Carolina and Virginia. The polls had made Romney and his campaign team so confident of their victory that Romney did not write

5280-443: The electoral college. Candidates in bold were on ballots representing 270 electoral votes. All other candidates were on the ballots of fewer than 10 states, 100 electors, and less than 20% of voters nationwide. The United States presidential election of 2012 broke new records in financing, fundraising, and negative campaigning . Through grassroots campaign contributions, online donations, and Super PACs , Obama and Romney raised

5376-433: The end of February. The Super Tuesday primaries took place on March 6. Romney carried six states, Santorum carried three, and Gingrich won only in his home state of Georgia. Throughout the rest of March, 266 delegates were allocated in 12 events, including the territorial contests and the first local conventions that allocated delegates (Wyoming's county conventions). Santorum won Kansas and three Southern primaries, but he

5472-517: The fact that the Bush administration knew that Iraq had no nuclear weapons and had no information about whether Iraq had biological weapons. He began formally making his case to the international community for an invasion of Iraq in his 12 September 2002 address to the UN Security Council . However, a 5 September 2002 report from Major General Glen Shaffer revealed that the Joint Chiefs of Staff 's J2 Intelligence Directorate had concluded that

5568-487: The first three state contests in January (the Iowa caucuses, the New Hampshire primary, and the South Carolina primary). Although Romney had been expected to win in at least Iowa and New Hampshire, Rick Santorum won the non-binding poll at caucus sites in Iowa by 34 votes, as near as could be determined from the incomplete tally, earning him a declaration as winner by state party leaders, although vote totals were missing from eight precincts. The election of county delegates at

5664-809: The future of Social Security , Medicare , and Medicaid , healthcare reform , education, social issues, immigration, and foreign policy. Debate schedule: An independent presidential debate featuring minor party candidates took place on Tuesday, October 23 at the Hilton Hotel in Chicago , Illinois. The debate was moderated by Larry King and organized by the Free & Equal Elections Foundation . The participants were Gary Johnson ( Libertarian ), Jill Stein ( Green ), Virgil Goode ( Constitution ), and Rocky Anderson ( Justice ). A second debate between Stein and Johnson took place on Sunday, November 4, and

5760-472: The global network of illicit weapons of mass destruction. Sixth, to end sanctions and to immediately deliver humanitarian support to the displaced and to many needy Iraqi citizens. Seventh, to secure Iraq's oil fields and resources, which belong to the Iraqi people. And last, to help the Iraqi people create conditions for a transition to representative self-government." The invasion was a quick and decisive operation encountering major resistance, though not what

5856-627: The history of the Blair government , as the number of government MPs who rebelled against the vote was the greatest since the repeal of the Corn Laws in 1846. Three government ministers resigned in protest at the war, John Denham , Lord Hunt of Kings Heath , and the then Leader of the House of Commons Robin Cook . In October 2002, former US President Bill Clinton warned about the possible dangers of pre-emptive military action against Iraq. Speaking in

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5952-626: The idea that democracy will suddenly blossom is something that I can't share. … Are Americans ready for this?" There were serious legal questions surrounding the launching of the war against Iraq and the Bush Doctrine of preemptive war in general. On 16 September 2004, Kofi Annan , the Secretary-General of the United Nations, said of the invasion "...was not in conformity with the UN ;Charter . From our point of view, from

6048-409: The invasion centered around claims Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) and that Saddam Hussein was supporting al-Qaeda . However, the 9/11 Commission concluded in 2004 that there was no credible evidence linking Saddam to al-Qaeda, and no WMD stockpiles were ever found in Iraq. These false claims faced widespread criticism , in the US and abroad. Kofi Annan , then Secretary-General of

6144-401: The invasion of Iraq with a host of public relations and military moves. In an address to the nation on 17 March 2003, Bush demanded that Saddam and his two sons, Uday and Qusay , surrender and leave Iraq, giving them a 48-hour deadline. The UK House of Commons held a debate on going to war on 18 March 2003 where the government motion was approved 412 to 149 . The vote was a key moment in

6240-453: The margin of victory was under 1% (29 electoral votes): States where the margin of victory was under 5% (46 electoral votes): States/districts where the margin of victory was between 5% and 10% (120 electoral votes): Counties with highest percent of vote (Democratic) Counties with highest percent of vote (Republican) After the networks called Ohio (the state that was arguably the most critical for Romney, as no Republican had ever won

6336-415: The military intervention. During a private meeting, he also said directly to George W. Bush: "Mr. President, you know my opinion about the war in Iraq. Let's talk about something else. Every violence, against one or a million, is a blasphemy addressed to the image and likeness of God." On 20 January 2003, French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin declared "we believe that military intervention would be

6432-559: The most popular votes in 2,447 (77.58%) while Obama carried 707 (22.42%). Popular vote totals are from the Federal Election Commission report. The table below displays the official vote tallies by each state's Electoral College voting method. The source for the results of all states, except those that amended their official results, is the official Federal Election Commission report. The column labeled "Margin" shows Obama's margin of victory over Romney (the margin

6528-412: The most recent in which neither major party's ticket included a woman, and the most recent in which Donald Trump was not the Republican nominee. All four major candidates for president and vice president went on to hold significant public office after this election. Obama served his second term as president, while Biden also served his second term as vice president and initially retired from politics but

6624-590: The nomination without counting unpledged delegates, making the June 26 Utah Primary, the last contest of the cycle, purely symbolic. CNN's final delegate estimate, released on July 27, 2012, put Romney at 1,462 pledged delegates and 62 unpledged delegates, for a total estimate of 1,524 delegates. No other candidate had unpledged delegates. The delegate estimates for the other candidates were Santorum at 261 delegates, Paul at 154, Gingrich at 142, Bachmann at 1, Huntsman at 1, and all others at 0. On August 28, 2012, delegates at

6720-532: The number of troops required to win the war, and that "the idea that it would take several hundred thousand US forces is far from the mark." Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz said Shinseki's estimate was "way off the mark," because other countries would take part in an occupying force. Germany's Foreign Secretary Joschka Fischer , although having been in favor of stationing German troops in Afghanistan , advised Federal Chancellor Schröder not to join

6816-429: The oil fields in southern Iraq. The heavy armor of the US 3rd Infantry Division moved westward and then northward through the western desert toward Baghdad, while the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force moved more easterly along Highway 1 through the center of the country, and 1 (UK) Armoured Division moved northward through the eastern marshland. The American 1st Marine Division fought through Nasiriyah in

6912-571: The party's presumptive nominee . Ron Paul officially remained in the race, but he stopped campaigning on May 14 to focus on state conventions. On May 29, after winning the Texas primary, Romney had received a sufficient number of delegates to clinch the party's nomination with the inclusion of unpledged delegates. After winning the June 5 primaries in California and several other states, Romney had received more than enough pledged delegates to clinch

7008-419: The passage of the Iraq Liberation Act, the US and UK launched a bombardment campaign of Iraq called Operation Desert Fox . The campaign's express rationale was to hamper Saddam Hussein's government's ability to produce chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons, but US intelligence personnel also hoped it would help weaken Saddam's grip on power. Following the election of George W. Bush as president in 2000 ,

7104-689: The presidency without carrying it) for Obama at around 11:15 pm EST on Election Day, Romney was ready to concede the race, but hesitated when Karl Rove strenuously objected on Fox News to the network's decision to make that call. However, after Colorado and Nevada were called for the President (giving Obama enough electoral votes to win even if Ohio were to leave his column), in tandem with Obama's apparent lead in Florida and Virginia (both were eventually called for Obama), Romney acknowledged that he had lost and conceded at around 1:00 am EST on November 7. Despite public polling showing Romney behind Obama in

7200-421: The president's vote total in individual counties in several of the seven contested primaries, though none made a significant impact in the delegate count. Running unopposed everywhere else, Obama cemented his status as the Democratic presumptive nominee on April 3, 2012, by securing the minimum number of pledged delegates needed to obtain the nomination. Candidates with considerable name recognition who entered

7296-504: The public groundwork for an invasion of Iraq in January 2002 State of the Union address, calling Iraq a member of the Axis of Evil , and saying "The United States of America will not permit the world's most dangerous regimes to threaten us with the world's most destructive weapons." Bush said this and made many other dire allegations about the threat of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction despite

7392-473: The race for the Democratic nomination was largely uneventful. The nomination process consisted of primaries and caucuses , held by the 50 states, as well as Guam , Puerto Rico , Washington, D.C. , U.S. Virgin Islands , American Samoa , and Democrats Abroad . Additionally, high-ranking party members known as superdelegates each received one vote in the convention. A few of the primary challengers surpassed

7488-814: The race for the Republican presidential nomination in the early stages of the primary campaign included U.S. representative and former Libertarian nominee Ron Paul , former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty , who co-chaired John McCain's campaign in 2008 , former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney , the runner-up for the nomination in the 2008 cycle, and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich . The first debate took place on May 5, 2011, in Greenville, South Carolina , with businessman Herman Cain , former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson , Ron Paul , Tim Pawlenty , and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum participating. Another debate took place

7584-943: The stated purpose of combating voter fraud ; the laws were attacked, however, by the Democratic Party as attempts to suppress voting among its supporters and to improve the Republican Party's presidential prospects. Florida , Georgia , Ohio , Tennessee , and West Virginia 's state legislatures approved measures to shorten early voting periods. Florida and Iowa barred all felons from voting. Kansas , South Carolina , Tennessee , Texas , and Wisconsin state legislatures passed laws requiring voters to have government-issued IDs before they could cast their ballots. This meant, typically, that people without driver's licenses or passports had to gain new forms of ID. Former president Bill Clinton denounced them, saying, "There has never been in my lifetime, since we got rid of

7680-481: The swing states of Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, and New Hampshire, tied with Obama in Virginia, and just barely ahead of Obama in Florida, the Romney campaign said they were genuinely surprised by the loss, having believed that public polling was oversampling Democrats. The Romney campaign had already set up a transition website, and had scheduled and purchased a fireworks display to celebrate in case he won

7776-435: The use of force in Iraq, but NATO members like Canada , France, and Germany, together with Russia, strongly urged continued diplomacy. Facing a losing vote as well as a likely veto from France and Russia, the US, the UK, Poland, Spain, Denmark, Italy, Japan, and Australia eventually withdrew their resolution. In March 2003, the United States, the United Kingdom, Poland, Australia, Spain, Denmark, and Italy began preparing for

7872-576: The war diminished his standing, contributing to his resignation in 2007. Strong international opposition to the Saddam Hussein regime began following Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990. The international community condemned the invasion, and in 1991 a military coalition led by the United States launched the Gulf War to expel Iraqi forces from Kuwait . Following the Gulf War, the US and its allies tried to keep Saddam Hussein in check with

7968-440: The war in Iraq. Fischer famously confronted United States Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld at the 39th Munich Security Conference in 2003 on the secretary's purported evidence for Iraq's possession of weapons of mass destruction : "Excuse me, I am not convinced!" Fischer also cautioned the United States against assuming that democracy would easily take root post-invasion; "You're going to have to occupy Iraq for years and years,

8064-448: The war plan for invading Iraq. Rumsfeld met with General Tommy Franks , the commander of US Central Command , on 27 November to go over the plans. A record of the meeting includes the question "How start?", listing multiple possible justifications for a US–Iraq War. The rationale for invading Iraq as a response to 9/11 has been refuted, as there was no cooperation between Saddam Hussein and al-Qaeda . President Bush began laying

8160-507: The war to its citizens. Americans overwhelmingly believed Saddam did have weapons of mass destruction: 85% said so, even though the inspectors had not uncovered those weapons. By February 2003, 64% of Americans supported taking military action to remove Saddam from power. On 5 February 2003, Secretary of State Colin Powell appeared before the UN to present evidence that Iraq was hiding unconventional weapons. However, despite warnings from

8256-430: The worst solution". Meanwhile, anti-war groups across the world organized public protests. According to French academic Dominique Reynié , between 3 January and 12 April 2003, 36 million people across the globe took part in almost 3,000 protests against the war in Iraq, with demonstrations on 15 February 2003 being the largest. Nelson Mandela voiced his opposition in late January, stating "All that (Mr. Bush) wants

8352-421: The years that Iraq was impeding the work of the special commission and failing to take seriously its disarmament obligations. Iraqi officials harassed the inspectors and obstructed their work, and in August 1998, the Iraqi government suspended cooperation with the inspectors completely, alleging that the inspectors were spying for the US. The spying allegations were later substantiated. In October 1998, removing

8448-554: Was "the last conservative standing" in the campaign for the nomination. After disappointing results in the April 24 primaries (finishing second in one state, third in three, and fourth in one), Gingrich dropped out on May 2 in a move that was seen as an effective end to the contest for the nomination. After Gingrich's spokesman announced his upcoming withdrawal, the Republican National Committee declared Romney

8544-535: Was able to organize a national campaign after his surprising victory there. He unexpectedly carried three states in a row on February 7 and overtook Romney in nationwide opinion polls, becoming the only candidate in the race to effectively challenge the notion that Romney was the inevitable nominee. However, Romney won all of the other contests between South Carolina and the Super Tuesday primaries , and regained his first-place status in nationwide opinion polls by

8640-517: Was also discussed, including the end of the Iraq War in 2011, military spending, the Iranian nuclear program , and appropriate counteractions to terrorism . Romney attacked Obama's domestic policies as ineffective and financially insolvent while Obama's campaign sought to characterize Romney as a plutocratic businessman who was out of touch with the average American. The campaign was marked by

8736-470: Was assigned to pick an economics paper and try to replicate the results. He chose "Growth in a Time of Debt", and throughout the semester his attempts to replicate the results proved unsuccessful. After further consultation with his professors Michael Ash and Robert Pollin , Herndon was encouraged to contact the authors Reinhart and Rogoff at Harvard. They provided him with the actual working spreadsheet they had used to obtain their results. Herndon looked into

8832-633: Was attempting to acquire weapons of mass destruction from Iraq: " Al-Qaida continues to have a deep interest in acquiring weapons of mass destruction . As with the story of Zarqawi and his network, I can trace the story of a senior terrorist operative telling how Iraq provided training in these weapons to al-Qaida. Fortunately, this operative is now detained and he has told his story. ... The support that this detainee describes included Iraq offering chemical or biological weapons training for two al-Qaida associates beginning in December 2000. He says that

8928-596: Was later elected president in 2020 , defeating Obama's successor, then-incumbent Donald Trump. This is the most recent election in which two major party nominees would go on to become president. Romney moved to Utah in 2014 and was elected to the Senate there in 2018 , succeeding Orrin Hatch . Ryan served three more terms in the House and eventually became Speaker from 2015 until his retirement from politics in 2019. In 2011, several state legislatures passed new voting laws, especially pertaining to voter identification, with

9024-555: Was led by US Army General Tommy Franks , under the code-name Operation Iraqi Freedom , the UK code-name Operation Telic , and the Australian code-name Operation Falconer . Coalition forces also cooperated with Kurdish Peshmerga forces in the north. Approximately forty other governments, the " Coalition of the Willing ", participated by providing troops, equipment, services, security, and special forces, with 248,000 soldiers from

9120-633: Was moderated by Ralph Nader. Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts of the composition of the Electoral College. These forecasts use a variety of factors to estimate the likelihood of each candidate winning the Electoral College electors for that state. Most election predictors use the following ratings: Below is a list of states considered by one or more forecast to be competitive; states that are deemed to be "safe" or "solid" by forecasters RealClearPolitics , Sabato's Crystal Ball , and FiveThirtyEight . On

9216-513: Was unable to make any substantial gain on Romney, who became a formidable frontrunner after securing more than half of the delegates allocated in March. On April 10, Santorum suspended his campaign due to a variety of reasons, such as a low delegate count, unfavorable polls in his home state of Pennsylvania, and his daughter's health, leaving Mitt Romney as the undisputed front-runner for the presidential nomination and allowing Gingrich to claim that he

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