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Upward Sun River site

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In statistics , sampling errors are incurred when the statistical characteristics of a population are estimated from a subset, or sample , of that population. Since the sample does not include all members of the population, statistics of the sample (often known as estimators ), such as means and quartiles, generally differ from the statistics of the entire population (known as parameters ). The difference between the sample statistic and population parameter is considered the sampling error . For example, if one measures the height of a thousand individuals from a population of one million, the average height of the thousand is typically not the same as the average height of all one million people in the country.

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49-593: The Upward Sun River site , or Xaasaa Na’ , is a Late Pleistocene archaeological site associated with the Paleo-Arctic tradition , located in the Tanana River Valley, Alaska. Dated to around 11,500 BP , Upward Sun River is the site of the oldest human remains discovered on the American side of Beringia . The site was first discovered in 2006. The layer with the human remains at Upward Sun River

98-423: A 2013 excavation of the site, researchers discovered the remains of two female infants in a layer directly underneath the cremated individual. The two individuals were covered in red ochre and buried together in a pit burial with grave goods, including four decorated antler rods, two lithic dart points and bifaces . The antler rods and dart points were likely part of a weapon system. The two individuals were given

147-536: A change in the use of coastal resources and advancements in marine technology. The reasons for these changes have not been confirmed; various triggering mechanisms have been theorized such as climate change , the arrival of new people, or the struggle for resources. The South American land mammal age , the Lujanian , corresponds with the late Pleistocene. The Lujanian is a geologic period from 0.8 - 0.11Ma specifically for prehistoric South American fauna. There

196-550: A group without bias. Failing to do this correctly will result in a sampling bias , which can dramatically increase the sample error in a systematic way. For example, attempting to measure the average height of the entire human population of the Earth, but measuring a sample only from one country, could result in a large over- or under-estimation. In reality, obtaining an unbiased sample can be difficult as many parameters (in this example, country, age, gender, and so on) may strongly bias

245-409: A larger sample up into smaller ones (potentially with overlap), the spread of the resulting sample statistics can be used to estimate the standard error on the sample. The term "sampling error" has also been used in a related but fundamentally different sense in the field of genetics ; for example in the bottleneck effect or founder effect , when natural disasters or migrations dramatically reduce

294-504: A larger sample. The cost of increasing a sample size may be prohibitive in reality. Since the sample error can often be estimated beforehand as a function of the sample size, various methods of sample size determination are used to weigh the predicted accuracy of an estimator against the predicted cost of taking a larger sample. As discussed, a sample statistic, such as an average or percentage, will generally be subject to sample-to-sample variation. By comparing many samples, or splitting

343-601: A location 600 km (370 mi) away from the Upward Sun River site. Late Pleistocene The Late Pleistocene is an unofficial age in the international geologic timescale in chronostratigraphy , also known as the Upper Pleistocene from a stratigraphic perspective. It is intended to be the fourth division of the Pleistocene Epoch within the ongoing Quaternary Period. It

392-753: A return to glacial conditions until 11.7 ka. Paleoclimatology holds that there was a sequence of stadials and interstadials from about 16 ka until the end of the Pleistocene. These were the Oldest Dryas (stadial), the Bølling oscillation (interstadial), the Older Dryas (stadial), the Allerød oscillation (interstadial) and finally the Younger Dryas. The end of the Younger Dryas marks

441-576: A true domestic dog have been dated to 14,200 years ago. Domestication first happened in Eurasia but could have been anywhere from Western Europe to East Asia. Domestication of other animals such as cattle, goats, pigs, and sheep did not begin until the Holocene when settled farming communities became established in the Near East. The cat was probably not domesticated before c.  7500 BC at

490-503: Is conducive for preserving fossils . Neanderthal hominins ( Homo neanderthalensis ) inhabited Eurasia until becoming extinct between 40 and 30 ka, towards the end of the Pleistocene and possibly into the early Holocene and were replaced with modern humans ( Homo sapiens ) who emerged from East Africa about 195,000 years ago. Neanderthals co-existed with the Homo sapiens until they died out. In Eurasia, extinction happened throughout

539-740: Is currently defined as the time between c. 129,000 and c. 11,700 years ago. The late Pleistocene equates to the proposed Tarantian Age of the geologic time scale , preceded by the officially ratified Chibanian (commonly known as the Middle Pleistocene). The beginning of the Late Pleistocene is the transition between the end of the Penultimate Glacial Period and the beginning of the Last Interglacial around 130,000 years ago (corresponding with

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588-610: Is due to the lack of chronological information. The resemblance of Late Pleistocene species in Northern Africa to modern animals is the same as in Southern Africa but it's extremely difficult to date when these fauna came into place because of the lack of reliable samples from the mid-Pleistocene. Most of the significant fossil records are from the Maghreb because of its geology which helps to create deep caves which

637-432: Is evidence of human habitation in mainland Australia , Indonesia , New Guinea and Tasmania from c. 45,000 BC. The finds include rock engravings, stone tools and evidence of cave habitation. In Australia, there are sites which show evidence of pollen records from the Late Pleistocene and they are mostly found in more temperate regions of the continent. Some megafauna decreased in size over time, while others remained

686-857: Is known in Europe as the Würm (Alpine) or Devensian (Great Britain) or Weichselian glaciation (northern Europe); these are broadly equated with the Wisconsin glaciation (North America), though technically that began much later. The Last Glacial Maximum was reached during the later millennia of the Würm/Weichselian, estimated between 26 ka and 19 ka when deglaciation began in the Northern Hemisphere. The Würm/Weichselian endured until 16 ka with Northern Europe, including most of Great Britain , covered by an ice sheet. The glaciers reached

735-627: Is matched by the archaeological evidence, as the Upward Sun River Site and Trail Creek Cave, despite being located over 750 km (466 mi) away from each other, both share similarities in artefact technology. Based on DNA analysis of USR1 , the Ancient Beringians are hypothesized to have split off from East Asians around 36,000 years ago, with continuous gene flow occurring until around 25,000 years ago. The Ancient Beringians are also hypothesized to have diverged from

784-478: Is most similar to the level 6 layer from Ushki Lake, Kamchatka . Both sites are the only Beringian burials found so far from that period. The name of the site, Upward Sun River, is a direct translation of the Middle Tanana name for the site, Xaasaa Na’ . The Middle Tanana name was recorded from the mother of a mother-daughter pair, two of the last remaining speakers of Middle Tanana, during an interview in

833-490: Is not matched by modern Native Americans; this additional Denisovan affinity is likely due to sampling variation from an ancient population with higher levels of heterogenous Denisovan admixture. Nuclear DNA analysis suggests that USR1 and USR2 are closely related, probably somewhere roughly in the range from half-siblings to first cousins. However, mtDNA analysis shows that the two infants are not maternally related. The two infants carry mtDNA lineages that are only found in

882-545: Is still heavily debated what caused the extinctions. Bison occidentalis and Bison antiquus , an extinct subspecies of the smaller present-day bison, survived the late Pleistocene period, between about 12 and 11 ka ago. Clovis people depended on these bison as their major food source. Earlier kills of camels, horses, and muskoxen found at Wally's beach were dated to 13.1–13.3 ka B.P. Over 50 genera (~ 83%) of megafauna in South and North America went extinct during

931-460: The Chibanian ) have been officially defined, the late Pleistocene has yet to be formally defined. Following the brief Last Interglacial warm period (~130–115,000 years ago), where temperatures were comparable to or warmer than the Holocene, the Late Pleistocene was dominated by the cool Last Glacial Period , with temperatures gradually lowering throughout the period, reaching their lowest during

980-727: The Great Lakes in North America. Sea levels fell and two land bridges were temporarily in existence that had significance for human migration : Doggerland , which connected Great Britain to mainland Europe; and the Bering land bridge which joined Alaska to Siberia . The last Ice Age was followed by the Late Glacial Interstadial , a period of global warming to 12.9 ka, and the Younger Dryas ,

1029-693: The Japanese archipelago has been traced to prehistoric times between 40,000 BC and 30,000 BC. The earliest fossils are radiocarbon dated to c. 35,000 BC. An archeological record of Neanderthals has been found in Asia along with records of two other hominin populations, the Denisovans and Homo floresiensis . Japan was once linked to the Asian mainland by land bridges via Hokkaido and Sakhalin Island to

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1078-629: The Last Glacial Maximum around 26-20,000 years ago. Most of the world's large ( megafaunal ) animals became extinct during the Late Pleistocene as part of the Late Pleistocene extinctions , a trend that continued into the Holocene. In palaeoanthropology , the late Pleistocene contains the Upper Palaeolithic stage of human development, including the early human migrations of modern humans outside of Africa, and

1127-535: The Nile Valley as the Sahara was transformed from grassland to desert. The Nazlet Khater skeleton was found in 1980 and has been radiocarbon dated to between 30,360 and 35,100 years ago. Most of the knowledge of the Late Pleistocene is obtained from regions like Morocco , Algeria , Tunisia , some coastal regions of Maghreb , Libya and Egypt . The only issue with interpreting the data from this region

1176-850: The North American land mammal age scale, the Rancholabrean spans the time from c. 240,000 years ago to c. 11,000 years ago. It is named after the Rancho La Brea fossil site in California , characterized by extinct forms of bison in association with other Pleistocene species such as the mammoth . During the Late Pleistocene about 35 genera of megafauna went extinct including species such as mastodons , saber-toothed cats and giant ground sloths . Some other species went extinct in North America but not globally. it

1225-495: The Seward Peninsula . When compared with modern populations, USR1 shows closest genetic affinity to modern Native Americans, then Siberians and East Asians. USR1 does not cluster genetically with any modern Native American population. The genetic distance from USR1 to Mal'ta boy is the same as that from modern Native American populations to Mal'ta boy. USR1 shows additional genetic affinity for Denisovans that

1274-526: The mammoth , mastodon , and Irish elk became extinct. Upper Paleolithic people also made paintings and engravings on walls. Cave paintings have been found at Lascaux in the Dordogne which may be more than 17,000 years old. These are mainly buffalo , deer , and other animals hunted by humans. Later paintings occur in caves throughout the world, including Altamira , Spain, and in India, Australia, and

1323-483: The 1960s. The first excavation at Upward Sun River in 2010 yielded the cremated remains of a 3-year-old individual. The individual had been cremated inside a hearth, which was then filled in, with an abandonment of the site quickly afterwards. This individual was given the name Xaasaa Cheege Ts'eniin (Upward Sun River Mouth Child) by the local Healy Lake Tribe and is referred to by archaeologists as USR3 . Researchers were unable to recover DNA from this individual. In

1372-482: The Alps and interglacials (temperate phase). The evidence of the changes in climatic conditions was from fragmentary sequences in formerly glaciated areas in northern Europe . The only domesticated animal in the Pleistocene was the dog , which evolved from the grey wolf into its many modern breeds . It is believed that the grey wolf became associated with hunter-gatherer tribes around 15 Ka. The earliest remains of

1421-455: The Americas. USR1 , the 6- to 12-week-old infant, comes from C1b . The prenatal infant, USR2 , carries a basal lineage of Haplogroup B2 that is also matched by the individual from Trial Creek Cave; this specific mtDNA lineage is different from the derived B2 lineage generally found in the Americas. Both individuals represent the northernmost discovery of these mtDNA lineages and show that

1470-524: The Americas. All three died during the summer. Their teeth show features most similar to those found in Native Americans and Northeast Asians. In 2015, researchers were able to extract the entire mitochondrial genome from both individuals. In 2018, researchers successfully sequenced the nuclear DNA from the petrous bone of both individuals, yielding around 17-fold coverage from USR1 and low coverage from USR2 . Based on osteological analysis,

1519-603: The Late Pleistocene. Some species which went extinct at the end of the Late Pleistocene in Southern Africa are the giant warthog , long-horn buffalo, Southern springbok , etc. These species were common because their distribution changed in response to climatic influences on vegetation. Carnivores were more widespread due to their varying habitat requirements. In Egypt , the Late (or Upper) Palaeolithic began sometime after 30,000 BC. People in North Africa had relocated to

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1568-673: The Pleistocene but those that happened during the Later Pleistocene were of megafauna and there were no replacements for the extinct species. Some Molluscan species went extinct but not on the same scale as the mammals living during the time. Some examples of species which extinct without replacements include the Straight-tusked elephant ( Palaeoloxodon antiquus ), Giant deer ( Megaloceros giganteus ), cave bear ( Ursus spelaeus ) and woolly rhinoceros ( Coelodonta antiquitatis ). Several large mammalian species including

1617-482: The Pleistocene. most mega mammals (>1000kg) and large mammals (>40kg) went extinct by the end of the Late Pleistocene. During this period there was a major cooling event called the Younger Dryas and the Clovis culture of capturing game became more prominent. Diverse factors such as climate change may have triggered this extinction but it's still in debate what the major factors were. The Late Pleistocene saw

1666-680: The Sahara. Magdalenian hunter-gatherers were widespread in western Europe about 20 -12.500 cal BP years ago until the end of the Pleistocene. An example of this is the antler-working done by the human groups who lived in the Santimamine cave in the Magdalenian. They invented the earliest known harpoons using reindeer horn. Climatic conditions during the Late Pleistocene in Eurasia were predominantly cold with glaciation events happening in northern Europe , northwest Siberia and

1715-407: The ancestors of Native Americans around 22,000 to 18,100 years ago. Phenotypic analysis shows that USR1 does not carry the derived EDAR allele commonly found in modern East Asians and Native Americans. However, USR1 does carry the derived rs174570 FADS2 allele that was targeted by a selective sweep . Around 300 bone fragments from salmonids were recovered at Upward Sun River, representing

1764-660: The beginning of Marine Isotope Stage 5 ). The Late Pleistocene ends with the termination of the Younger Dryas , some 11,700 years ago when the Holocene Epoch began. The term Upper Pleistocene is currently in use as a provisional or "quasi-formal" designation by the International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS). Although the three oldest ages of the Pleistocene (the Gelasian , the Calabrian and

1813-470: The boundary between the Pleistocene and Holocene Epochs. Hominids in all parts of the world were still culturally and technologically in the Palaeolithic (Old Stone) Age . Tools and weapons were basic stone or wooden implements. Nomadic tribes followed moving herds. Non-nomadics acquired their food by gathering and hunting . Its present physical geography and climate have changed over time caused by

1862-560: The earliest surviving evidence of salmon eating in North America. DNA analysis types the salmon remains as coming from Oncorhynchus keta ( chum salmon ). Isotopic analysis shows that the salmon were anadromous . An obsidian flake discovered as part of the grave goods found in the infant burial was chemically identified as coming from the Hoodoo Mountain primary source site in Kluane National Park , Yukon, Canada,

1911-682: The earliest, again in the Near East . A butchered brown bear patella found in Alice and Gwendoline Cave in County Clare and dated to 10,860 to 10,641 BC indicates the first known human activity in Ireland . The topography and geography of Asia were subject to frequent changes such as the creation of land bridges when sea levels dropped which helped with the expansion and migration of human populations . The first human habitation in

1960-417: The estimator and it must be ensured that none of these factors play a part in the selection process. Even in a perfect non-biased sample, the sample error will still exist due to the remaining statistical component; consider that measuring only two or three individuals and taking the average would produce a wildly varying result each time. The likely size of the sampling error can generally be reduced by taking

2009-579: The extinction of all archaic human species. Paleolithic Epipalaeolithic Mesolithic Neolithic The proposed beginning of the late Pleistocene is the end of the Penultimate Glacial Period (PGP) 126 ka when the Riß glaciation (Alpine) was being succeeded by the Eemian (Riß-Würm) interglacial period . The Riß-Würm ended 115 ka with the onset of the Last Glacial Period (LGP) which

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2058-408: The movement of tectonic plates and volcanoes but glacial cycles and sea level variation have a more significant effect on the vertebrate communities during the Late Pleistocene. The Late Pleistocene was the time when most animals evolved to resemble modern-day animals and they managed to live through the Late mid-Pleistocene since there were no extinction events of megafauna until the end of

2107-500: The mtDNA diversity in the ancient population is higher than in the modern, lending credence to the Beringia Standstill Hypothesis . USR1 is thought to be representative of a hypothesized ancient population referred to as Ancient Beringian . Ancient Beringian is now considered to be composed of three individuals: USR1 , USR2 and the 9,000 year-old individual from Trail Creek Cave. This genetic clustering

2156-462: The names Xach'itee'aanenh t'eede gaay (Sunrise child-girl) and Yełkaanenh t'eede gaay (Dawn twilight child-girl) by the local people and are referred to by archaeologists as USR1 and USR2 , respectively. One of the individuals ( USR2 ) was a prenatal, possibly stillborn 30-week-old fetus, while the other ( USR1 ) was a 6- to 12-week-old infant. The prenatal individual is the only prenate and youngest Late Pleistocene individual to be recovered in

2205-503: The north but was unconnected at this time when the main islands of Hokkaido, Honshu , Kyushu and Shikoku were all separate entities. Human migrations happened during this time with people coming in from Eurasia . From about 28 ka, there were migrations across the Bering land bridge from Siberia to Alaska . The people became the Native Americans . It is believed that the original tribes subsequently moved down to Central and South America under pressure from later migrations. In

2254-602: The same; however, the fossil record is limited in the exact chronologies of the extinctions. In general, various reasons have been stated to have caused the extinctions during the Late Pleistocene but the topic is still being debated. Sampling variation Since sampling is almost always done to estimate population parameters that are unknown, by definition exact measurement of the sampling errors will not be possible; however they can often be estimated, either by general methods such as bootstrapping , or by specific methods incorporating some assumptions (or guesses) regarding

2303-475: The true population distribution and parameters thereof. The sampling error is the error caused by observing a sample instead of the whole population. The sampling error is the difference between a sample statistic used to estimate a population parameter and the actual but unknown value of the parameter. In statistics , a truly random sample means selecting individuals from a population with an equivalent probability ; in other words, picking individuals from

2352-421: The two infants were thought to be female; this assessment is corroborated by evidence from DNA analysis. When compared with ancient populations, USR1 and USR2 show closest genetic affinity to Shuká Káa from On Your Knees Cave . USR1 shows extra genetic affinity for Siberians and East Asians in a way that is not found in later ancient individuals from the Americas such as Anzick-1 , Kennewick Man , or

2401-608: The woman from the Lucy Islands dated to around 6,000 years ago. USR1 belongs to a population that predates the hypothesized splitting of ancient Native American populations into the Northern Native American and Southern Native American branches and does not cluster genetically with either later population. USR1 forms a distinct clade with the individual from Cave 2 of the Trail Creek Caves on

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