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25-466: Coupled models are computer-based models of the Earth's climate, in which different parts (such as atmosphere, oceans, land, ice) are "coupled" together, and interact in simulations. The Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has been supporting the several CMIP phases by helping WGCM to determine the scope of the project, by maintaining

50-563: A collection of climate model outputs was coordinated and stored by PCMDI. The climate model outputs included simulations of past, present and future climate scenarios. This activity enabled those climate models, outside the major modeling centers to perform research of relevance to climate scientists preparing the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR4). For the CMIP3 a list of 20 different experiments were proposed, and

75-842: A gap widens between an internationally-connected society that contributes to knowledge- and capital-intensive sectors of the global economy, and a fragmented collection of lower-income, poorly educated societies that work in a labor intensive, low-tech economy. Social cohesion degrades and conflict and unrest become increasingly common. Technology development is high in the high-tech economy and sectors. The globally connected energy sector diversifies, with investments in both carbon-intensive fuels like coal and unconventional oil , but also low-carbon energy sources. Environmental policies focus on local issues around middle and high income areas." "This world places increasing faith in competitive markets, innovation and participatory societies to produce rapid technological progress and development of human capital as

100-405: A more sustainable path, emphasizing more inclusive development that respects predicted environmental boundaries. Management of the global commons slowly improves, educational and health investments accelerate the demographic transition, and the emphasis on economic growth shifts toward a broader emphasis on human well-being. Driven by an increasing commitment to achieving development goals, inequality

125-606: A number of model intercomparison projects, including the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP), Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), Seasonal Prediction Model Intercomparison Project (SMIP), Aqua-Planet Experimental Project (APE), and Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). PCMDI is also developing the Cloud-Associated Parameterizations Testbed (CAPT) and

150-779: Is involved with other research and innovations that will help with the diagnosis, tweaking, and intercomparison of models. The model intercomparisons run by PCMDI are used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, such as in Chapter 8 of the Working Group I report for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report . On April 6, 2009, the American Meteorological Society held a meeting in Bethesda, Maryland to celebrate

175-616: Is reduced both across and within countries. Consumption is oriented toward low material growth and lower resource and energy intensity." "The world follows a path in which social, economic, and technological trends do not shift markedly from historical patterns. Development and income growth proceeds unevenly, with some countries making relatively good progress while others fall short of expectations. Global and national institutions work toward but make slow progress in achieving sustainable development goals. Environmental systems experience degradation, although there are some improvements and overall

200-502: The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report on climate change in 2021. They are used to derive greenhouse gas emissions scenarios with different climate policies . The SSPs provide narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments . These storylines are a qualitative description of logic relating elements of the narratives to each other. In terms of quantitative elements, they provide data accompanying

225-748: The United States . It is funded by the Regional and Global Climate Modeling Group (RGCM) and the Atmospheric System Research (ASR) programs of the Climate and Environment Sciences Division of the United States Department of Energy . The main goal of PCMDI is to develop improved methods and tools for the diagnosis and intercomparison of general circulation models (GCMs). PCMDI is the canonical resource for

250-726: The CMIP1 announcement was very successful and up to 18 global coupled models participated in the data collection representing most of the international groups with global coupled GCMs. In consequence, at the September 1996 meeting of the CLIVAR NEG2 numerical experimentation group in Victoria, Canada , it was decided that CMIP2 will be an inter-comparison of 1% per year compound CO 2 increase integrations (80 years in length) where CO 2 doubles at around year 70. During 2005 and 2006,

275-605: The DECK and CMIP historical simulations, therefore their main goal is just to address a wider range of specific questions. This structure will be kept in future CMIP experiments. CMIP6 also aims to be consistent regarding common standards and documentation. To achieve that it includes methods to facilitate a wider distribution and characterization of model outputs, and common standard tools for their analyses. A number of guides has been created for data managers, modelers and users. A set of official/common forcings datasets are available for

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300-612: The IPCC 6th Assessment Report Working Group I is early 2020. The structure of the CMIP6 has been extended with respect to CMIP5 by providing an equivalent framework named CMIP Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK) (klima is Greek for "climate"), together with a set of Endorsed MIPs to improve the description of aspects of climate models beyond the core set of common experiments included in DECK. However, CMIP-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) are still built on

325-465: The PCMDI kept the documentation of all the global climate model involved. Additional information and data-sets are in. The next phase of the project (2010–2014) was CMIP5. CMIP5 included more metadata describing model simulations than previous phases. The METAFOR project created an exhaustive schema describing the scientific, technical, and numerical aspects of CMIP runs which was archived along with

350-652: The expense of broader-based development. Investments in education and technological development decline. Economic development is slow, consumption is material-intensive, and inequalities persist or worsen over time. Population growth is low in industrialized and high in developing countries. A low international priority for addressing environmental concerns leads to strong environmental degradation in some regions." "Highly unequal investments in human capital , combined with increasing disparities in economic opportunity and political power, lead to increasing inequalities and stratification both across and within countries. Over time,

375-559: The framework of the SSPs. The names of these scenarios consist of the SSP on which they are based (SSP1-SSP5), combined with the expected level of radiative forcing in the year 2100 (1.9 to 8.5 W/m ). This results in scenario names SSPx-y.z as listed below. The IPCC Sixth report did not estimate the likelihoods of the scenarios but a 2020 commentary described SSP5–8.5 as highly unlikely, SSP3–7.0 as unlikely, and SSP2–4.5 as likely. However,

400-736: The future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) which have replaced the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) from prior models. Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison The Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison ( PCMDI ) is a program at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in Livermore, California . Livermore is in the San Francisco Bay Area in

425-412: The global economy, while global population peaks and declines in the 21st century. Local environmental problems like air pollution are successfully managed. There is faith in the ability to effectively manage social and ecological systems, including by geo-engineering if necessary." The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report assessed the projected temperature outcomes of a set of five scenarios that are based on

450-644: The intensity of resource and energy use declines. Global population growth is moderate and levels off in the second half of the century. Income inequality persists or improves only slowly and challenges to reducing vulnerability to societal and environmental changes remain." "A resurgent nationalism, concerns about competitiveness and security, and regional conflicts push countries to increasingly focus on domestic or, at most, regional issues. Policies shift over time to become increasingly oriented toward national and regional security issues. Countries focus on achieving energy and food security goals within their own regions at

475-530: The output data. A main objective of the CMIP5 experiments was to address outstanding scientific questions that arose as part of the IPCC AR4 process, improve understanding of climate, and to provide estimates of future climate change that will be useful to those considering its possible consequences. The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report summarizes information of CMIP5 experiments, while the CMIP5 experimental protocol

500-441: The path to sustainable development. Global markets are increasingly integrated. There are also strong investments in health, education, and institutions to enhance human and social capital. At the same time, the push for economic and social development is coupled with the exploitation of abundant fossil fuel resources and the adoption of resource and energy intensive lifestyles around the world. All these factors lead to rapid growth of

525-515: The project's data base and by participating in data analysis. CMIP has received model output from the pre-industrial climate simulations ("control runs") and 1% per year increasing-CO 2 simulations of about 30 coupled GCMs. More recent phases of the project, including 20th Century Climate in Coupled Models (20C3M), include more realistic scenarios of climate forcing for both historical, paleoclimate and future scenarios. The response to

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550-594: The scenarios on national population, urbanization and GDP (per capita). The SSPs can be quantified with various Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to explore possible future pathways both with regards to socioeconomic and climate pathways. The five scenarios are: There are also ongoing efforts to downscaling European shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) for agricultural and food systems, combined with representative concentration pathways (RCP) to regionally specific, alternative socioeconomic and climate scenarios. "The world shifts gradually, but pervasively, toward

575-408: The studies under DECK, as well as several MIPS. That allows for more sensible comparisons on the model ensemble created under the CMIP6 umbrella. These common dataset forcings are stored and coordinated by input4MIPS (input datasets for Model Intercomparison Projects). Beyond these historical forcings, CMIP6 also has a common set of future scenarios comprising land use and emissions as required for

600-626: The twentieth anniversary of the operation of the PCMDI. The meeting summary was published in the Journal of the American Meteorological Society in May 2011. This climatology -related article is a stub . You can help Misplaced Pages by expanding it . Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Shared Socioeconomic Pathways ( SSPs ) are climate change scenarios of projected socioeconomic global changes up to 2100 as defined in

625-544: Was endorsed by the 12th Session of the WCRP Working on this Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM). Additional information and data-sets are in. Planning meetings for Phase 6 began in 2013, and an overview of the design and organization was published in 2016. By 2018 CMIP6 had endorsed 23 Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) involving 33 modeling groups in 16 countries. A small number of common experiments were also planned. The deadline for submission of papers to contribute to

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