4-570: The Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) is a conflict early warning operation within the African Peace and Security architecture (APSA) of the African Union . Its continued development was supported by United Nations Security Council Resolution 1809 . This Africa -related article is a stub . You can help Misplaced Pages by expanding it . Conflict early warning The field of conflict early warning seeks to forecast
8-887: Is the approach taken by the International Crisis Group , for example. In contrast, quantitative methodologies quantify conflict trends and use mathematical techniques to forecast future trends or "events of interest" (EOIs) such as the onset of conflicts. For example, the Integrated Conflict Early Warning System (ICEWS) project at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) takes this approach. Some approaches to conflict early warning combine both qualitative and quantitative methodologies, such as Swisspeace 's formerly operational project called FAST. The unanticipated events of
12-798: The Yom Kippur War in 1973 and that of the Falklands War in 1982 provoked a series of debates over the lack of early warning. The incident over the Falklands had taken the United Nations completely by surprise and it is said "no map of the islands was available in the Secretariat when the invasion began". The initial drivers, however, were humanitarian agencies "driven by the need for accurate and timely predictions of refugee flows to enable effective contingency planning". After
16-675: The outbreak of armed conflict , or, at minimum, to detect the early escalation of violence, with the objective of preventing the outbreak or the further escalation of violence in order to save lives. Initial conceptions of conflict early warning materialized in the 1970s and 1980s but the field really emerged on the international policy agenda after the end of the Cold War . Both qualitative and quantitative approaches have been developed for conflict forecasting and conflict monitoring. Qualitative methodologies typically draw on local area experts with extensive knowledge on one country or region. This
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