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20-570: The Global Forecast System ( GFS ) is a global numerical weather prediction system containing a global computer model and variational analysis run by the United States' National Weather Service (NWS). The mathematical model is run four times a day, and produces forecasts for up to 16 days in advance, but with decreased spatial resolution after 10 days. The forecast skill generally decreases with time (as with any numerical weather prediction model) and for longer term forecasts, only

40-597: A NCEP's Global Wave Model using the Unified Forecast System (UFS) community model. GFSv16 was implemented on March 22, 2021. On 23 September 2020, the first global UFS application at NCEP was implemented in the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS v12) . The components of this upgrade include: This implementation is the first global-scale coupled system at NCEP, and replaces the previous standalone Global Wave Ensemble and

60-632: A new dynamical core, the GFDL Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core (FV3) , which uses the finite volume method instead of the spectral method used by earlier versions of the GFS. The resulting model, initially developed under the name FV3GFS, inherited the GFS moniker, with the legacy GFS continuing to be run until September 2019. Initial testing of the FV3-based GFS showed promise, improving upon

80-411: A next-generation experimental seasonal-to-decadal prediction system. Current head: Thomas Knutson This divisions goal is to develop innovative physical and dynamical components for the next generation of earth system models, with special emphasis on high resolution (1–25 km) atmospheric model development. We aim to explore the frontiers of weather and climate modeling and analysis, and to improve

100-443: Is engaged in comprehensive long-lead-time research to expand our scientific understanding of the physical and chemical processes that govern the behavior of the atmosphere and the oceans as complex fluid systems . These systems can be modeled mathematically and their phenomenology can be studied by computer simulation methods. GFDL's accomplishments include the development of the first climate models to study global warming ,

120-505: Is referred to as the "Global Ensemble Forecast System" (GEFS). The GFS ensemble is combined with Canada's Global Environmental Multiscale Model ensemble to form the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS). As with most works of the U.S. government, GFS data is not copyrighted and is available for free in the public domain under provisions of U.S. law . Because of this, the model serves as

140-603: Is to develop and use the GFDL’s earth system models to create a more comprehensive understanding of the interactions between physical, chemical, and ecological drivers and feedbacks on the earth system. Current head: Rong Zhang This divisions goal is to conduct leading research to understand ocean and cryosphere changes and variability; their interactions with weather, climate, sea level, and ecosystems; and advance prediction and projection of future changes. To support this goal, we are developing state-of-the-science numerical models for

160-579: The GFS's resolution from 64 to 127 vertical levels, while extending the WaveWatch III forecasting window from 10 to 16 days. This left some meteorologists hopeful that the GFSv16 upgrade would be enough to close the accuracy gap with the ECMWF's model, which was considered to be the most accurate global weather model at the time. On June 12, 2019, after several years of testing, NOAA upgraded the GFS with

180-614: The GFS. In 2019, a major upgrade was held for the GFS, converting it from the GSM (Global Spectral Model) to the new FV3 dycore. Horizontal and vertical resolution remained the same but this set the foundation for what is now known as the UFS (Unified Forecast System). On March 22, 2021, the NOAA upgraded the GFS model, coupling it with the WaveWatch III global wave model , which will increase

200-934: The NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) systems. More details can be found at the EMC Model Evaluation Group’s GEFS v12 web site , the EMC GEFS web page, and the EMC GEFS-Aerosol web page. Numerical weather prediction Too Many Requests If you report this error to the Wikimedia System Administrators, please include the details below. Request from 172.68.168.226 via cp1108 cp1108, Varnish XID 185887946 Upstream caches: cp1108 int Error: 429, Too Many Requests at Thu, 28 Nov 2024 07:53:41 GMT Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory GFDL

220-498: The basis for the forecasts of numerous private, commercial, and foreign weather companies. By 2015, the GFS model had fallen behind the accuracy of other global weather models. This was most notable in the GFS model incorrectly predicting Hurricane Sandy turning out to sea until four days before landfall, while the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ' model predicted landfall correctly at 7 days. Much of this

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240-413: The first 120 hours, three hourly through day 10, and 12 hourly through day 16. The output from the GFS is also used to produce model output statistics . In addition to the main model, the GFS is also the basis of a lower-resolution 30-member (31, counting the control and operational members) ensemble that runs concurrently with the operational GFS and is available on the same time scales. This ensemble

260-475: The first comprehensive ocean prediction codes, and the first dynamical models with significant skill in hurricane track and intensity predictions. Much current research within the laboratory is focused around the development of Earth System Models for assessment of natural and human-induced climate change. The GFDL has a diverse community of about 300 researchers, collaborators and staff, with many from Britain, India, China, Japan, France, and other countries around

280-422: The large-scale prediction skill and hurricane track accuracy of the legacy GFS. With the initial operational implementation of FV3GFS now accomplished, NOAA's Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) global modeling focus has turned towards development of the next GFS (v16) upgrade, which will include doubled vertical resolution (64 to 127 layers), more advanced physics, data assimilation system upgrades, and coupling to

300-425: The larger scales retain significant accuracy. It is one of the predominant synoptic scale medium-range models in general use. The GFS model has a finite volume cubed sphere (FV3) dynamical core with an approximate horizontal resolution of 13 km for the days 0-16 days. In the vertical, the model is divided into 127 layers and extends to the mesopause (roughly ~80 km). It produces forecast output every hour for

320-400: The ocean, sea ice, land ice, and fully coupled models. Current head: Thomas L. Delworth This divisions goal is to improve our understanding of climate variability, predictability and change on time scales ranging from seasonal to multidecadal. This includes internal variability of the coupled climate system, and the response to changing radiative forcing. We are actively working to develop

340-537: The predictions of high-impact events such as hurricanes, floods, severe storms, and droughts, from weather to seasonal and interannual (2 year) time-scales. The GFDL is located at Princeton University 's Forrestal Campus in Princeton, NJ. Since March 2011, the GFDL no longer possesses an on-site supercomputer . They instead utilize a massively parallel Cray supercomputer with over 140,000 processor cores which

360-580: The previous version. This version accounts more accurately for variables such as the Madden–Julian oscillation and the Saharan Air Layer . In 2018, the processing power was increased again to 8.4 petaflops, The agency also tested a potential replacement model with different mechanics, the flow-following, finite-volume icosahedral model (FIM), in the early 2010s; it abandoned that model around 2016, after it did not show substantial improvement over

380-788: The world. The laboratory is currently organized into several scientific divisions (listed alphabetically below). There is also a large group of scientific programmers known as the Modeling Systems Division, as well as a large computer support group. Current head: Venkatachalam Ramaswamy This divisions goal is to employ numerical models and observations of the Earth System to characterize and quantify atmospheric physical processes, particularly those involving greenhouse gases, aerosols, water vapor, and clouds, and their roles in atmospheric general circulation, weather and climate. Current head: John P. Dunne This divisions goal

400-532: Was suggested to be due to limits in computational resources within the National Weather Service. In response, the NWS purchased new supercomputers, increasing processing power from 776 teraflops to 5.78 petaflops. As of the 12z run on 19 July 2017, the GFS model has been upgraded. Unlike the recently-upgraded ECMWF , the new GFS behaves a bit differently in the tropics and in other regions compared to

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