Heterodox
122-484: The Eurosystem is the monetary authority of the eurozone , the collective of European Union member states that have adopted the euro as their sole official currency. The European Central Bank (ECB) has, under Article 16 of its Statute, the exclusive right to authorise the issuance of euro banknotes . Member states can issue euro coins , but the amount must be authorised by the ECB beforehand. The Eurosystem consists of
244-693: A fixed exchange rate regime, aligning their currency with one or more foreign currencies, typically the US dollar or the euro . Conventional monetary policy can be ineffective in situations such as a liquidity trap . When nominal interest rates are near zero, central banks cannot loosen monetary policy through conventional means. In that situation, they may use unconventional monetary policy such as quantitative easing to help stabilize output. Quantity easing can be implemented by buying not only government bonds, but also other assets such as corporate bonds, stocks, and other securities. This allows lower interest rates for
366-635: A fixed exchange rate system or even a currency union like the Economic and Monetary Union of the European Union , drawing on the research literature on optimum currency areas . Macroeconomics as a separate field of research and study is generally recognized to start with the publication of John Maynard Keynes ' The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money in 1936. The terms "macrodynamics" and "macroanalysis" were introduced by Ragnar Frisch in 1933, and Lawrence Klein in 1946 used
488-436: A 2% inflation rate just because that has been the average the past few years; they will look at current monetary policy and economic conditions to make an informed forecast. In the new classical models with rational expectations, monetary policy only had a limited impact. Lucas also made an influential critique of Keynesian empirical models. He argued that forecasting models based on empirical relationships would keep producing
610-468: A 3% increase in output would lead to a 1% decrease in unemployment. The structural or natural rate of unemployment is the level of unemployment that will occur in a medium-run equilibrium, i.e. a situation with a cyclical unemployment rate of zero. There may be several reasons why there is some positive unemployment level even in a cyclically neutral situation, which all have their foundation in some kind of market failure : A general price increase across
732-804: A basis for making economic forecasting . Well-known specific theoretical models include short-term models like the Keynesian cross , the IS–LM model and the Mundell–Fleming model , medium-term models like the AD–AS model , building upon a Phillips curve , and long-term growth models like the Solow–Swan model, the Ramsey–Cass–Koopmans model and Peter Diamond 's overlapping generations model . Quantitative models include early large-scale macroeconometric model ,
854-613: A broader class of assets beyond government bonds. A similar strategy is to lower long-term interest rates by buying long-term bonds and selling short-term bonds to create a flat yield curve , known in the US as Operation Twist . Fiscal policy is the use of government's revenue ( taxes ) and expenditure as instruments to influence the economy. For example, if the economy is producing less than potential output , government spending can be used to employ idle resources and boost output, or taxes could be lowered to boost private consumption which has
976-495: A central bank may include: Central banks implement a country's chosen monetary policy . At the most basic level, monetary policy involves establishing what form of currency the country may have, whether a fiat currency , gold-backed currency (disallowed for countries in the International Monetary Fund ), currency board or a currency union . When a country has its own national currency, this involves
1098-560: A central banking role to banks that were effectively or even legally foreign. A seminal case was the Imperial Ottoman Bank established in 1863 as a French-British joint venture, and a particularly egregious one was the Paris-based National Bank of Haiti (est. 1881) which captured significant financial resources from the economically struggling albeit independent nation of Haiti . Other cases include
1220-796: A common central bank. Examples include the Eastern Caribbean Currency Authority , the Central Bank of West African States , and the Bank of Central African States . The concept of supranational central banking took a globally significant dimension with the Economic and Monetary Union of the European Union and the establishment of the European Central Bank (ECB) in 1998. In 2014, the ECB took an additional role of banking supervision as part of
1342-571: A core part of contemporary macroeconomics. The 2007–2008 financial crisis , which led to the Great Recession , led to major reassessment of macroeconomics, which as a field generally had neglected the potential role of financial institutions in the economy. After the crisis, macroeconomic researchers have turned their attention in several new directions: Research in the economics of the determinants behind long-run economic growth has followed its own course. The Harrod-Domar model from
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#17327647187561464-573: A currency union, or indirectly on a currency board. In the latter case, exemplified by the Bulgarian National Bank , Hong Kong and Latvia (until 2014), the local currency is backed at a fixed rate by the central bank's holdings of a foreign currency. Similar to commercial banks, central banks hold assets (government bonds, foreign exchange, gold, and other financial assets) and incur liabilities (currency outstanding). Central banks create money by issuing banknotes and loaning them to
1586-442: A medium-run equilibrium (or "potential") level, the process would be slow at best. Keynes coined the term liquidity preference (his preferred name for what is also known as money demand ) and explained how monetary policy might affect aggregate demand, at the same time offering clear policy recommendations for an active role of fiscal policy in stabilizing aggregate demand and hence output and employment. In addition, he explained how
1708-420: A parallel division of macroeconomic policies into short-run policies aimed at mitigating the harmful consequences of business cycles (known as stabilization policy ) and medium- and long-run policies targeted at improving the structural levels of macroeconomic variables. Stabilization policy is usually implemented through two sets of tools: fiscal and monetary policy. Both forms of policy are used to stabilize
1830-506: A ratio between the gold reserves held by the Bank of England and the notes that the bank could issue. The Act also placed strict curbs on the issuance of notes by the country banks. The Bank of England took over a role of lender of last resort in the 1870s after criticism of its lacklustre response to the failure of Overend, Gurney and Company . The journalist Walter Bagehot wrote on the subject in Lombard Street: A Description of
1952-629: A response to a currency crisis in 1797, Thornton wrote in 1802 An Enquiry into the Nature and Effects of the Paper Credit of Great Britain , in which he argued that the increase in paper credit did not cause the crisis. The book also gives a detailed account of the British monetary system as well as a detailed examination of the ways in which the Bank of England should act to counteract fluctuations in
2074-498: A similar effect. Government spending or tax cuts do not have to make up for the entire output gap . There is a multiplier effect that affects the impact of government spending. For instance, when the government pays for a bridge, the project not only adds the value of the bridge to output, but also allows the bridge workers to increase their consumption and investment, which helps to close the output gap. The effects of fiscal policy can be limited by partial or full crowding out . When
2196-545: A special case of the more general Ramsey growth model , where households' savings rates are not constant as in the Solow model, but derived from an explicit intertemporal utility function . In the 1980s and 1990s endogenous growth theory arose to challenge the neoclassical growth theory of Ramsey and Solow. This group of models explains economic growth through factors such as increasing returns to scale for capital and learning-by-doing that are endogenously determined instead of
2318-499: A unitary central bank. In the second half of the 20th century, the dismantling of colonial systems left some groups of countries using the same currency even though they had achieved national independence. In contrast to the unraveling of Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire after World War I , some of these countries decided to keep using a common currency, thus forming a monetary union , and to entrust its management to
2440-403: A whole intellectural framework - a novel theory of economics that explained why markets might not clear, which would evolve into a school of thought known as Keynesian economics , also called Keynesianism or Keynesian theory. In Keynes' theory, aggregate demand - by Keynes called "effective demand" - was key to determining output. Even if Keynes conceded that output might eventually return to
2562-464: Is a potential measure that could be applied by Central banks to achieve a low-carbon transition. Although there is a historical bias toward high-carbon companies, included in Central banks portfolios due to their high credit ratings, innovative approaches to quantitative easing could invert this trend to favor low-carbon assets. Considering the potential impact of central banks on climate change, it
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#17327647187562684-405: Is a rather recent phenomenon. At the start of the 20th century, approximately two-thirds of sovereign states did not have a central bank. Waves of central bank adoption occurred in the interwar period and in the aftermath of World War II. In the 20th century, central banks were often created with the intent to attract foreign capital, as bankers preferred to lend to countries with a central bank on
2806-547: Is affected. Expansionary monetary policy lowers interest rates, increasing economic activity, whereas contractionary monetary policy raises interest rates. In the case of a fixed exchange rate system, interest rate decisions together with direct intervention by central banks on exchange rate dynamics are major tools to control the exchange rate. In developed countries, most central banks follow inflation targeting , focusing on keeping medium-term inflation close to an explicit target, say 2%, or within an explicit range. This includes
2928-676: Is classified as unintended unemployment. For example, structural unemployment is a form of unintended unemployment resulting from a mismatch between demand in the labour market and the skills and locations of the workers seeking employment. Macroeconomic policy generally aims to reduce unintended unemployment. Keynes labeled any jobs that would be created by a rise in wage-goods (i.e., a decrease in real-wages ) as involuntary unemployment : Economic growth can be enhanced by investment in capital , such as more or better machinery. A low interest rate implies that firms can borrow money to invest in their capital stock and pay less interest for it. Lowering
3050-715: Is distinct from the European System of Central Banks (ESCB), which comprises the ECB and the central banks of all 27 European Union member states, including those that are not part of the eurozone. In accordance with the treaty establishing the European Community and the Statute of the European System of Central Banks and of the European Central Bank , the primary objective of the Eurosystem
3172-468: Is implemented through automatic stabilizers without any active decisions by politicians. Automatic stabilizers do not suffer from the policy lags of discretionary fiscal policy . Automatic stabilizers use conventional fiscal mechanisms, but take effect as soon as the economy takes a downturn: spending on unemployment benefits automatically increases when unemployment rises, and tax revenues decrease, which shelters private income and consumption from part of
3294-546: Is important to consider the mandates of central banks. The mandate of a central bank can be narrow, meaning only a few objectives are given, limiting the ability of a central bank to include climate change in its policies. However, central bank mandates may not necessarily have to be modified to accommodate climate change-related activities. For example, the European Central Bank has incorporated carbon-emissions into its asset purchase criteria, despite its relatively narrow mandate that focuses on price stability. The functions of
3416-409: Is measured by the unemployment rate, i.e. the percentage of persons in the labor force who do not have a job, but who are actively looking for one. People who are retired, pursuing education, or discouraged from seeking work by a lack of job prospects are not part of the labor force and consequently not counted as unemployed, either. Unemployment has a short-run cyclical component which depends on
3538-440: Is not central banks' role to conduct climate policy. China is among the most advanced central banks when it comes to green monetary policy. It has given green bonds preferential status to lower their yield and uses window policy to direct green lending. The implications of potential stranded assets in the economy highlights one example of the embedded transition risk to climate change with potential cascade effects throughout
3660-790: Is now known as a central bank was often referred to as a bank of issue ( French : institut d'émission , German : Notenbank ). The reference to central banking in the current sense only became widespread in the early 20th century. Names of individual central banks include, with references to the date when the bank acquired its current name: In some cases, the local-language name is used in English-language practice, e.g. Sveriges Riksbank (est. 1668, current name in use since 1866), De Nederlandsche Bank (est. 1814), Deutsche Bundesbank (est. 1957), or Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (est. 1993). Some commercial banks have names suggestive of central banks, even if they are not: examples are
3782-416: Is referred to as an "environment's source function", and this function is depleted as resources are consumed or pollution contaminates the resources. The "sink function" describes an environment's ability to absorb and render harmless waste and pollution: when waste output exceeds the limit of the sink function, long-term damage occurs. The division into various time frames of macroeconomic research leads to
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3904-464: Is that of an economy's openness, economic theory distinguishing sharply between closed economies and open economies . It is usual to distinguish between three time horizons in macroeconomics, each having its own focus on e.g. the determination of output: National output is the total amount of everything a country produces in a given period of time. Everything that is produced and sold generates an equal amount of income. The total net output of
4026-470: Is the product of two inputs: capital and labor. The Solow model assumes that labor and capital are used at constant rates without the fluctuations in unemployment and capital utilization commonly seen in business cycles. In this model, increases in output, i.e. economic growth, can only occur because of an increase in the capital stock, a larger population, or technological advancements that lead to higher productivity ( total factor productivity ). An increase in
4148-460: Is to maintain price stability. Without prejudice to this objective, the Eurosystem supports the general economic policies in the Community and acts in accordance with the principles of an open market economy. The basic tasks carried out by the Eurosystem are (art. 127 TFEU): In addition, the Eurosystem contributes to the smooth conduct of policies pursued by the competent authorities relating to
4270-604: The Bank of Java (est. 1828 in Batavia ), Banque de l'Algérie (est. 1851 in Algiers ), or Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (est. 1865 in Hong Kong ), operated from the colony itself. Following the generalization of the transcontinental use of the electrical telegraph using submarine communications cable , however, new colonial banks were typically headquartered in the colonial metropolis; prominent examples included
4392-645: The Bank of Spain in 1782. The Russian Assignation Bank , established in 1769 by Catherine the Great , was an outlier from the general pattern of early national central banks in that it was directly owned by the Imperial Russian government, rather than private individual shareholders. In the nascent United States , Alexander Hamilton , as Secretary of the Treasury in the 1790s, set up the First Bank of
4514-576: The Belgium–Luxembourg Economic Union established in 1921, under which Luxembourg had no central bank, but that was managed by a national central bank (in that case the National Bank of Belgium ) rather than a supranational one. The present-day Common Monetary Area of Southern Africa has comparable features. Yet another pattern was set in countries where federated or otherwise sub-sovereign entities had wide policy autonomy that
4636-536: The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank , which are generally considered to follow a strategy very close to inflation targeting, even though they do not officially label themselves as inflation targeters. In practice, an official inflation targeting often leaves room for the central bank to also help stabilize output and employment, a strategy known as "flexible inflation targeting". Most emerging economies focus their monetary policy on maintaining
4758-488: The Hungarian National Bank operated alongside three other major state-owned banks. For earlier periods, what institutions do or do not count as central banks is often not univocal. Correlatively, different scholars have held different views about the timeline of emergence of the first central banks. A widely held view in the second half of the 20th century has been that Stockholms Banco (est. 1657), as
4880-451: The National Bank of Czechoslovakia . Brazil established a central bank in 1945, which was a precursor to the Central Bank of Brazil created twenty years later. After gaining independence, numerous African and Asian countries also established central banks or monetary unions. The Reserve Bank of India , which had been established during British colonial rule as a private company, was nationalized in 1949 following India's independence. By
5002-561: The State Bank of India and Central Bank of India , National Bank of Greece , Banco do Brasil , National Bank of Pakistan , Bank of China , Bank of Cyprus , or Bank of Ireland , as well as Deutsche Bank . Some but not all of these institutions had assumed central banking roles in the past. The leading executive of a central bank is usually known as the Governor , President , or Chair . The widespread adoption of central banking
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5124-577: The United Kingdom and the United States respectively, Montagu Norman and Benjamin Strong , agreed on a definition of central banks that was both positive and normative . Since that time, central banks have been generally distinguishable from other financial institutions, except under Communism in so-called single-tier banking systems such as Hungary's between 1950 and 1987, where
5246-630: The financial system . In response, four broad types of interventions including methodology development, investor encouragement, financial regulation and policy toolkits have been adopted by or suggested for central banks. Achieving the 2°C threshold revolve in part around the development of climate-aligned financial regulations. A significant challenge lies in the lack of awareness among corporations and investors, driven by poor information flow and insufficient disclosure. To address this issue, regulators and central banks are promoting transparency, integrated reporting , and exposure specifications, with
5368-475: The multiplier effect would magnify a small decrease in consumption or investment and cause declines throughout the economy, and noted the role that uncertainty and animal spirits can play in the economy. The generation following Keynes combined the macroeconomics of the General Theory with neoclassical microeconomics to create the neoclassical synthesis . By the 1950s, most economists had accepted
5490-521: The 12th century, a network of professional banks emerged primarily in Southern Europe (including Southern France, with the Cahorsins ). Banks could use book money to create deposits for their customers. Thus, they had the possibility to issue, lend and transfer money autonomously without direct control from political authorities. The Taula de canvi de Barcelona , established in 1401, is
5612-411: The 1940s attempted to build a long-run growth model inspired by Keynesian demand-driven considerations. The Solow–Swan model worked out by Robert Solow and, independently, Trevor Swan in the 1950s achieved more long-lasting success, however, and is still today a common textbook model for explaining economic growth in the long-run. The model operates with a production function where national output
5734-628: The 19th century. The Bank of Finland was founded in 1812, soon after Finland had been taken over from Sweden by Russia to become a grand duchy . Simultaneously, a quasi-central banking role was played by a small group of powerful family-run banking networks, typified by the House of Rothschild , with branches in major cities across Europe, as well as Hottinguer in Switzerland and Oppenheim in Germany. The theory of central banking, even though
5856-419: The ECB and the national central banks (NCB) of the 20 member states that are part of the eurozone. The national central banks apply the monetary policy of the ECB. The primary objective of the Eurosystem is price stability . Secondary objectives are financial stability and financial integration. The mission statement of the Eurosystem says that the ECB and the national central banks jointly contribute to achieving
5978-536: The ESCB to perform its tasks. 2023 2022 2023 2022 ts Monetary authority Heterodox A central bank , reserve bank , national bank , or monetary authority is an institution that manages the currency and monetary policy of a country or monetary union. In contrast to a commercial bank , a central bank possesses a monopoly on increasing the monetary base . Many central banks also have supervisory or regulatory powers to ensure
6100-761: The Financial System (NGFS) to evaluate the way in which central banks can use their regulatory and monetary policy tools to support climate change mitigation . Today more than 70 central banks are part of the NGFS. In January 2020, the European Central Bank has announced it will consider climate considerations when reviewing its monetary policy framework. Proponents of "green monetary policy" are proposing that central banks include climate-related criteria in their collateral eligibility frameworks, when conducting asset purchases and also in their refinancing operations. But critics such as Jens Weidmann are arguing it
6222-499: The Great Depression struck, the reigning economists had difficulty explaining how goods could go unsold and workers could be left unemployed. In the prevailing neoclassical economics paradigm, prices and wages would drop until the market cleared, and all goods and labor were sold. Keynes in his main work, the General Theory , initiated what is known as the Keynesian revolution . He offered a new interpretation of events and
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#17327647187566344-475: The Keynesian school. A central development in new classical thought came when Robert Lucas introduced rational expectations to macroeconomics. Prior to Lucas, economists had generally used adaptive expectations where agents were assumed to look at the recent past to make expectations about the future. Under rational expectations, agents are assumed to be more sophisticated. Consumers will not simply assume
6466-563: The London-based Imperial Bank of Persia , established in 1885, and the Rome-based National Bank of Albania , established in 1925. The State Bank of Morocco was established in 1907 with international shareholding and headquarters functions distributed between Paris and Tangier , a half-decade before the country lost its independence. In other cases, there have been organized currency unions such as
6588-1173: The Lucas critique. Like classical models, new classical models had assumed that prices would be able to adjust perfectly and monetary policy would only lead to price changes. New Keynesian models investigated sources of sticky prices and wages due to imperfect competition , which would not adjust, allowing monetary policy to impact quantities instead of prices. Stanley Fischer and John B. Taylor produced early work in this area by showing that monetary policy could be effective even in models with rational expectations when contracts locked in wages for workers. Other new Keynesian economists, including Olivier Blanchard , Janet Yellen , Julio Rotemberg , Greg Mankiw , David Romer , and Michael Woodford , expanded on this work and demonstrated other cases where various market imperfections caused inflexible prices and wages leading in turn to monetary and fiscal policy having real effects. Other researchers focused on imperferctions in labor markets, developing models of efficiency wages or search and matching (SAM) models, or imperfections in credit markets like Ben Bernanke . By
6710-664: The Money Market , in which he advocated for the bank to officially become a lender of last resort during a credit crunch , sometimes referred to as "Bagehot's dictum". The 19th and early 20th centuries central banks in most of Europe and Japan developed under the international gold standard . Free banking or currency boards were common at the time. Problems with collapses of banks during downturns, however, led to wider support for central banks in those nations which did not as yet possess them, for example in Australia. In
6832-473: The Paris-based Banque de l'Indochine (est. 1875), Banque de l'Afrique Occidentale (est. 1901), and Banque de Madagascar (est. 1925). The Banque de l'Algérie's head office was relocated from Algiers to Paris in 1900. In some cases, independent countries which did not have a strong domestic base of capital accumulation and were critically reliant on foreign funding found advantage in granting
6954-569: The United States despite heavy opposition from Jeffersonian Republicans . Central banks were established in many European countries during the 19th century. Napoleon created the Banque de France in 1800, in order to stabilize and develop the French economy and to improve the financing of his wars. The Bank of France remained the most important Continental European central bank throughout
7076-561: The United States, the role of a central bank had been ended in the so-called Bank War of the 1830s by President Andrew Jackson . In 1913, the U.S. created the Federal Reserve System through the passing of The Federal Reserve Act . Following World War I , the Economic and Financial Organization (EFO) of the League of Nations , influenced by the ideas of Montagu Norman and other leading policymakers and economists of
7198-447: The business cycle, and a more permanent structural component, which can be loosely thought of as the average unemployment rate in an economy over extended periods, and which is often termed the natural or structural rate of unemployment. Cyclical unemployment occurs when growth stagnates. Okun's law represents the empirical relationship between unemployment and short-run GDP growth. The original version of Okun's law states that
7320-459: The case of a very low interest level, the economy may be in a liquidity trap in which monetary policy becomes ineffective, which makes fiscal policy the more potent tool to stabilize the economy. Thirdly, in regimes where monetary policy is tied to fulfilling other targets, in particular fixed exchange rate regimes, the central bank cannot simultaneously adjust its interest rates to mitigate domestic business cycle fluctuations, making fiscal policy
7442-409: The consequences of international trade in goods , financial assets and possibly factor markets like labor migration and international relocation of firms (physical capital). It explores what determines import , export , the balance of trade and over longer horizons the accumulation of net foreign assets . An important topic is the role of exchange rates and the pros and cons of maintaining
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#17327647187567564-404: The development of the macroeconomic research mainstream . Macroeconomics encompasses a variety of concepts and variables, but above all the three central macroeconomic variables are output, unemployment, and inflation. Besides, the time horizon varies for different types of macroeconomic topics, and this distinction is crucial for many research and policy debates. A further important dimension
7686-678: The difference may be considerable. Economists interested in long-run increases in output study economic growth. Advances in technology, accumulation of machinery and other capital , and better education and human capital , are all factors that lead to increased economic output over time. However, output does not always increase consistently over time. Business cycles can cause short-term drops in output called recessions . Economists look for macroeconomic policies that prevent economies from slipping into either recessions or overheating and that lead to higher productivity levels and standards of living . The amount of unemployment in an economy
7808-560: The early 17th century in leading northwestern European commercial centers, namely the Bank of Amsterdam in 1609 and the Hamburger Bank in 1619. These institutions offered a public infrastructure for cashless international payments. They aimed to increase the efficiency of international trade and to safeguard monetary stability. These municipal public banks thus fulfilled comparable functions to modern central banks. The Swedish central bank, known since 1866 as Sveriges Riksbank ,
7930-422: The early 21st century, most of the world's countries had a national central bank set up as a public sector institution, albeit with widely varying degrees of independence. Before the near-generalized adoption of the model of national public-sector central banks, a number of economies relied on a central bank that was effectively or legally run from outside their territory. The first colonial central banks, such as
8052-440: The economic system is dependant upon the environment. In this case, the circular flow of income diagram may be replaced by a more complex flow diagram reflecting the input of solar energy, which sustains natural inputs and environmental services which are then used as units of production . Once consumed, natural inputs pass out of the economy as pollution and waste. The potential of an environment to provide services and materials
8174-529: The economy , i.e. limiting the effects of the business cycle by conducting expansive policy when the economy is in a recession or contractive policy in the case of overheating . Structural policies may be labor market policies which aim to change the structural unemployment rate or policies which affect long-run propensities to save, invest, or engage in education or research and development. Central banks conduct monetary policy mainly by adjusting short-term interest rates . The actual method through which
8296-454: The economy is usually measured as gross domestic product (GDP). Adding net factor incomes from abroad to GDP produces gross national income (GNI), which measures total income of all residents in the economy. In most countries, the difference between GDP and GNI are modest so that GDP can approximately be treated as total income of all the inhabitants as well, but in some countries, e.g. countries with very large net foreign assets (or debt),
8418-502: The economy was sufficient to explain the Great Depression , and that aggregate demand oriented explanations were not necessary. Friedman also argued that monetary policy was more effective than fiscal policy; however, Friedman doubted the government's ability to "fine-tune" the economy with monetary policy. He generally favored a policy of steady growth in money supply instead of frequent intervention. Friedman also challenged
8540-463: The economy, could hardly generate the large short-run output fluctuations that we observe. In addition, there is strong empirical evidence that monetary policy does affect real economic activity, and the idea that technological regress can explain recent recessions seems implausible. Despite criticism of the realism in the RBC models, they have been very influential in economic methodology by providing
8662-601: The entire economy is called inflation . When prices decrease, there is deflation . Economists measure these changes in prices with price indexes . Inflation will increase when an economy becomes overheated and grows too quickly. Similarly, a declining economy can lead to decreasing inflation and even in some cases deflation. Central bankers conducting monetary policy usually have as a main priority to avoid too high inflation, typically by adjusting interest rates. High inflation as well as deflation can lead to increased uncertainty and other negative consequences, in particular when
8784-466: The exogenous technological improvement used to explain growth in Solow's model. Another type of endogenous growth models endogenized the process of technological progress by modelling research and development activities by profit-maximizing firms explicitly within the growth models themselves. Since the 1970s, various environmental problems have been integrated into growth and other macroeconomic models to study their implications more thoroughly. During
8906-405: The fall in market income. There is a general consensus that both monetary and fiscal instruments may affect demand and activity in the short run (i.e. over the business cycle). Economists usually favor monetary over fiscal policy to mitigate moderate fluctuations, however, because it has two major advantages. First, monetary policy is generally implemented by independent central banks instead of
9028-588: The first example of municipal, mostly public banks which pioneered central banking on a limited scale. It was soon emulated by the Bank of Saint George in the Republic of Genoa , first established in 1407, and significantly later by the Banco del Giro in the Republic of Venice and by a network of institutions in Naples that later consolidated into Banco di Napoli . Notable municipal central banks were established in
9150-478: The first examples of general equilibrium models based on microeconomic foundations and a specification of underlying shocks that aim to explain the main features of macroeconomic fluctuations, not only qualitatively, but also quantitatively. In this way, they were forerunners of the later DSGE models. New Keynesian economists responded to the new classical school by adopting rational expectations and focusing on developing micro-founded models that were immune to
9272-521: The foreign exchange market. Goals frequently cannot be separated from each other and often conflict. Costs must therefore be carefully weighed before policy implementation. In the aftermath of the Paris agreement on climate change , a debate is now underway on whether central banks should also pursue environmental goals as part of their activities. In 2017, eight central banks formed the Network for Greening
9394-523: The form of gold and silver coins . The mere issuance of paper currency or other types of financial money by a government is not the same as central banking. The difference is that government-issued financial money, as present e.g. in China during the Yuan dynasty in the form of paper currency, is typically not freely convertible and thus of inferior quality, occasionally leading to hyperinflation . From
9516-576: The global economy, the US Federal Reserve plays an outsized role in the international monetary market. Being the main supplier and rate adjusted for US dollars, the Federal Reserve implements a set of requirements to control inflation and unemployment in the US. Frictional unemployment is the time period between jobs when a worker is searching for, or transitioning from one job to another. Unemployment beyond frictional unemployment
9638-464: The goal of promoting long-term, low-carbon emission goals, rather than short-term financial objectives. These regulations aim to assess risk comprehensively, identifying carbon-intensive assets and increasing their capital requirements. This should result in high-carbon assets becoming less attractive while favoring low-carbon assets, which have historically been perceived as high-risk, and low volatility investment vehicles . Quantitative easing
9760-518: The gold standard. The use of money as a unit of account predates history. Government control of money is documented in the ancient Egyptian economy (2750–2150 BCE). The Egyptians measured the value of goods with a central unit called shat . Like many other currencies, the shat was linked to gold . The value of a shat in terms of goods was defined by government administrations. Other cultures in Asia Minor later materialized their currencies in
9882-408: The government in exchange for interest-bearing assets such as government bonds. When central banks decide to increase the money supply by an amount which is greater than the amount their national governments decide to borrow, the central banks may purchase private bonds or assets denominated in foreign currencies. Macroeconomic policy Macroeconomics is a branch of economics that deals with
10004-429: The government takes on spending projects, it limits the amount of resources available for the private sector to use. Full crowding out occurs in the extreme case when government spending simply replaces private sector output instead of adding additional output to the economy. A crowding out effect may also occur if government spending should lead to higher interest rates, which would limit investment. Some fiscal policy
10126-525: The highest quality. Under that definition, municipal banks of the late medieval and early modern periods, such as the Taula de canvi de Barcelona (est. 1401) or Bank of Amsterdam (est. 1609), issued central bank money and count as early central banks. There is no universal terminology for the name of a central bank. Early central banks were often the only or principal formal financial institution in their jurisdiction, and were consequently often named "bank of"
10248-498: The inflation (or deflation) is unexpected. Consequently, most central banks aim for a positive, but stable and not very high inflation level. Changes in the inflation level may be the result of several factors. Too much aggregate demand in the economy will cause an overheating , raising inflation rates via the Phillips curve because of a tight labor market leading to large wage increases which will be transmitted to increases in
10370-409: The interest is therefore considered to encourage economic growth and is often used to alleviate times of low economic growth. On the other hand, raising the interest rate is often used in times of high economic growth as a contra-cyclical device to keep the economy from overheating and avoid market bubbles. Further goals of monetary policy are stability of interest rates, of the financial market, and of
10492-538: The interest rate is changed differs from central bank to central bank, but typically the implementation happens either directly via administratively changing the central bank's own offered interest rates or indirectly via open market operations . Via the monetary transmission mechanism , interest rate changes affect investment , consumption , asset prices like stock prices and house prices , and through exchange rate reactions export and import . In this way aggregate demand , employment and ultimately inflation
10614-440: The issue of some form of standardized currency, which is essentially a form of promissory note : "money" under certain circumstances. Historically, this was often a promise to exchange the money for precious metals in some fixed amount. Now, when many currencies are fiat money , the "promise to pay" consists of the promise to accept that currency to pay for taxes. A central bank may use another country's currency either directly in
10736-466: The late 1990s, economists had reached a rough consensus. The market imperfections and nominal rigidities of new Keynesian theory was combined with rational expectations and the RBC methodology to produce a new and popular type of models called dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. The fusion of elements from different schools of thought has been dubbed the new neoclassical synthesis . These models are now used by many central banks and are
10858-417: The macro economy. RBC models were created by combining fundamental equations from neo-classical microeconomics to make quantitative models. In order to generate macroeconomic fluctuations, RBC models explained recessions and unemployment with changes in technology instead of changes in the markets for goods or money. Critics of RBC models argue that technological changes, which typically diffuse slowly throughout
10980-434: The macro/micro divide is institutionalized in the field of economics. Most economists identify as either macro- or micro-economists. Macroeconomics is traditionally divided into topics along different time frames: the analysis of short-term fluctuations over the business cycle , the determination of structural levels of variables like inflation and unemployment in the medium (i.e. unaffected by short-term deviations) term, and
11102-466: The name was not yet widely used, evolved in the 19th century. Henry Thornton , an opponent of the real bills doctrine , was a defender of the bullionist position and a significant figure in monetary theory. Thornton's process of monetary expansion anticipated the theories of Knut Wicksell regarding the "cumulative process which restates the Quantity Theory in a theoretically coherent form". As
11224-420: The new classical real business cycle models , microfounded computable general equilibrium (CGE) models used for medium-term (structural) questions like international trade or tax reforms, Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models used to analyze business cycles, not least in many central banks, or integrated assessment models like DICE . The IS–LM model, invented by John Hicks in 1936, gives
11346-437: The newly established policy of European banking union . The primary role of central banks is usually to maintain price stability, as defined as a specific level of inflation. Inflation is defined either as the devaluation of a currency or equivalently the rise of prices relative to a currency. Most central banks currently have an inflation target close to 2%. Since inflation lowers real wages , Keynesians view inflation as
11468-496: The objectives. The Eurosystem is independent. When performing Eurosystem-related tasks, neither the ECB, nor an NCB, nor any member of their decision-making bodies may seek or take instructions from any external body. The Community institutions and bodies and the governments of the member states may not seek to influence the members of the decision-making bodies of the ECB or of the NCBs in the performance of their tasks. The Eurosystem
11590-564: The oil crises of the 1970s when scarcity problems of natural resources were high on the public agenda, economists like Joseph Stiglitz and Robert Solow introduced non-renewable resources into neoclassical growth models to study the possibilities of maintaining growth in living standards under these conditions. More recently, the issue of climate change and the possibilities of a sustainable development are examined in so-called integrated assessment models , pioneered by William Nordhaus . In macroeconomic models in environmental economics ,
11712-606: The only usable tool for such countries. Macroeconomic teaching, research and informed debates normally evolve around formal ( diagrammatic or equational ) macroeconomic models to clarify assumptions and show their consequences in a precise way. Models include simple theoretical models, often containing only a few equations, used in teaching and research to highlight key basic principles, and larger applied quantitative models used by e.g. governments, central banks, think tanks and international organisations to predict effects of changes in economic policy or other exogenous factors or as
11834-642: The original issuer of banknotes , counted as the oldest central bank, and that consequently its successor the Sveriges Riksbank was the oldest central bank in continuous operation, with the Bank of England as second-oldest and direct or indirect model for all subsequent central banks. That view has persisted in some early-21st-century publications. In more recent scholarship, however, the issuance of banknotes has often been viewed as just one of several techniques to provide central bank money , defined as financial money (in contrast to commodity money ) of
11956-480: The original simple Phillips curve relationship between inflation and unemployment. Friedman and Edmund Phelps (who was not a monetarist) proposed an "augmented" version of the Phillips curve that excluded the possibility of a stable, long-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. When the oil shocks of the 1970s created a high unemployment and high inflation, Friedman and Phelps were vindicated. Monetarism
12078-471: The performance, structure, behavior, and decision-making of an economy as a whole. This includes regional, national, and global economies . Macroeconomists study topics such as output / GDP (gross domestic product) and national income , unemployment (including unemployment rates ), price indices and inflation , consumption , saving , investment , energy , international trade , and international finance . Macroeconomics and microeconomics are
12200-465: The political institutions that control fiscal policy. Independent central banks are less likely to be subject to political pressures for overly expansionary policies. Second, monetary policy may suffer shorter inside lags and outside lags than fiscal policy. There are some exceptions, however: Firstly, in the case of a major shock, monetary stabilization policy may not be sufficient and should be supplemented by active fiscal stabilization. Secondly, in
12322-423: The premises of macroeconomic policies ( monetary and fiscal policy ) of the state are a focus of contention and criticism by some policymakers, researchers and specialized business, economics and finance media. The notion of central banks as a separate category from other banks has emerged gradually, and only fully coalesced in the 20th century. In the aftermath of World War I , leading central bankers of
12444-449: The price level are directly caused by changes in the money supply . Whereas there is empirical evidence that there is a long-run positive correlation between the growth rate of the money stock and the rate of inflation, the quantity theory has proved unreliable in the short- and medium-run time horizon relevant to monetary policy and is abandoned as a practical guideline by most central banks today. Open economy macroeconomics deals with
12566-518: The price of the products of employers. Too little aggregate demand will have the opposite effect of creating more unemployment and lower wages, thereby decreasing inflation. Aggregate supply shocks will also affect inflation, e.g. the oil crises of the 1970s and the 2021–2023 global energy crisis . Changes in inflation may also impact the formation of inflation expectations , creating a self-fulfilling inflationary or deflationary spiral. The monetarist quantity theory of money holds that changes in
12688-470: The prudential supervision of credit institutions and the stability of the financial system . The ECB has an advisory role vis-à-vis the Community and national authorities on matters within its field of competence, particularly where Community or national legislation is concerned. The ECB, assisted by the NCBs, has the task of collecting the necessary statistical information either from the competent national authorities or directly from economic agents to enable
12810-484: The relevant city's or country's name, e.g. the Bank of Amsterdam , Bank of Hamburg , Bank of England , or Wiener Stadtbank . Naming practices subsequently evolved as more central banks were established. The expression "central bank" itself only appeared in the early 19th century, but at that time it referred to the head office of a multi- branched bank, and was still used in that sense by Walter Bagehot in his seminal 1873 essay Lombard Street . During that era, what
12932-416: The same predictions even as the underlying model generating the data changed. He advocated models based on fundamental economic theory (i.e. having an explicit microeconomic foundation ) that would, in principle, be structurally accurate as economies changed. Following Lucas's critique, new classical economists, led by Edward C. Prescott and Finn E. Kydland , created real business cycle (RBC) models of
13054-494: The savings rate leads to a temporary increase as the economy creates more capital, which adds to output. However, eventually the depreciation rate will limit the expansion of capital: savings will be used up replacing depreciated capital, and no savings will remain to pay for an additional expansion in capital. Solow's model suggests that economic growth in terms of output per capita depends solely on technological advances that enhance productivity. The Solow model can be interpreted as
13176-512: The sole authorized distributor of banknotes, or to function as a lender of last resort to banks suffering a liquidity crisis . In the early 18th century, a major experiment in national central banking failed in France with John Law 's Banque Royale in 1720–1721. Later in the century, France had other attempts with the Caisse d'Escompte first created in 1767, and King Charles III established
13298-401: The solution to involuntary unemployment. However, "unanticipated" inflation leads to lender losses as the real interest rate will be lower than expected. Thus, Keynesian monetary policy aims for a steady rate of inflation. Central banks as monetary authorities in representative states are intertwined through globalized financial markets. As a regulator of one of the most widespread currencies in
13420-821: The stability of commercial banks in their jurisdiction, to prevent bank runs , and in some cases also to enforce policies on financial consumer protection and against bank fraud , money laundering , or terrorism financing . Central banks play a crucial role in macroeconomic forecasting, which is essential for guiding monetary policy decisions, especially during times of economic turbulence. Central banks in most developed nations are usually set up to be institutionally independent from political interference, even though governments typically have governance rights over them, legislative bodies exercise scrutiny, and central banks frequently do show responsiveness to politics. Issues like central bank independence, central bank policies and rhetoric in central bank governors discourse or
13542-749: The study of long-term economic growth. It also studies the consequences of policies targeted at mitigating fluctuations like fiscal or monetary policy , using taxation and government expenditure or interest rates, respectively, and of policies that can affect living standards in the long term, e.g. by affecting growth rates. Macroeconomics as a separate field of research and study is generally recognized to start in 1936, when John Maynard Keynes published his The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money , but its intellectual predecessors are much older. Since World War II, various macroeconomic schools of thought like Keynesians , monetarists , new classical and new Keynesian economists have made contributions to
13664-414: The synthesis view of the macroeconomy. Economists like Paul Samuelson , Franco Modigliani , James Tobin , and Robert Solow developed formal Keynesian models and contributed formal theories of consumption, investment, and money demand that fleshed out the Keynesian framework. Milton Friedman updated the quantity theory of money to include a role for money demand. He argued that the role of money in
13786-755: The time, took an active role to promote the independence of central banks, a key component of the economic orthodoxy the EFO fostered at the Brussels Conference (1920) . The EFO thus directed the creation of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank in Austria , Hungarian National Bank , Bank of Danzig , and Bank of Greece , as well as comprehensive reforms of the Bulgarian National Bank and Bank of Estonia . Similar ideas were emulated in other newly independent European countries, e.g. for
13908-505: The two most general fields in economics. The focus of macroeconomics is often on a country (or larger entities like the whole world) and how its markets interact to produce large-scale phenomena that economists refer to as aggregate variables. In microeconomics the focus of analysis is often a single market, such as whether changes in supply or demand are to blame for price increases in the oil and automotive sectors. From introductory classes in "principles of economics" through doctoral studies,
14030-419: The underpinnings of aggregate demand (itself discussed below). It answers the question "At any given price level, what is the quantity of goods demanded?" The graphic model shows combinations of interest rates and output that ensure equilibrium in both the goods and money markets under the model's assumptions. The goods market is modeled as giving equality between investment and public and private saving (IS), and
14152-584: The value of the pound. In the United Kingdom until the mid-nineteenth century, commercial banks were able to issue their own banknotes, and notes issued by provincial banking companies were commonly in circulation. Many consider the origins of the central bank to lie with the passage of the Bank Charter Act 1844 . Under the 1844 Act, bullionism was institutionalized in Britain, creating
14274-402: The word "macroeconomics" itself in a journal title in 1946. but naturally several of the themes which are central to macroeconomic research had been discussed by thoughtful economists and other writers long before 1936. In particular, macroeconomic questions before Keynes were the topic of the two long-standing traditions of business cycle theory and monetary theory . William Stanley Jevons
14396-519: Was echoed to varying degrees in the organization of the central bank itself. These included, for example, the Austro-Hungarian Bank from 1878 to 1918, the U.S. Federal Reserve in its first two decades, the Bank deutscher Länder between 1948 and 1957, or the National Bank of Yugoslavia between 1972 and 1993. Conversely, some countries that are politically organized as federations, such as today's Canada, Mexico, or Switzerland, rely on
14518-627: Was founded in Stockholm in 1664 from the remains of the failed Stockholms Banco and answered to the Riksdag of the Estates , Sweden's early modern parliament. One role of the Swedish central bank was lending money to the government. The establishment of the Bank of England was devised by Charles Montagu, 1st Earl of Halifax , following a 1691 proposal by William Paterson . A royal charter
14640-466: Was granted on 27 July 1694 through the passage of the Tonnage Act . The bank was given exclusive possession of the government's balances, and was the only limited-liability corporation allowed to issue banknotes . The early modern Bank of England, however, did not have all the functions of a today's central banks, e.g. to regulate the value of the national currency, to finance the government, to be
14762-468: Was one of the pioneers of the first tradition, whereas the quantity theory of money , labelled the oldest surviving theory in economics, as an example of the second was described already in the 16th century by Martín de Azpilcueta and later discussed by personalities like John Locke and David Hume . In the first decades of the 20th century monetary theory was dominated by the eminent economists Alfred Marshall , Knut Wicksell and Irving Fisher . When
14884-416: Was particularly influential in the early 1980s, but fell out of favor when central banks found the results disappointing when trying to target money supply instead of interest rates as monetarists recommended, concluding that the relationships between money growth, inflation and real GDP growth are too unstable to be useful in practical monetary policy making. New classical macroeconomics further challenged
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