A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.
52-1050: Swindon South is a constituency in the Borough of Swindon , Wiltshire , represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament since 2024 by Heidi Alexander of the Labour Party . In the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies , the seat was renamed from South Swindon to Swindon South, first contested at the 2024 general election . 1997–2010 : The Borough of Thamesdown wards of Central , Chiseldon, Dorcan, Eastcott, Freshbrook, Lawns, Park, Ridgeway, Toothill, Walcot, and Wroughton. 2010–2024 : The Borough of Swindon wards of Central , Covingham and Dorcan (part), Eastcott, Liden + Eldene and Park South, Lydiard and Freshbrook, Old Town, Chiseldon and Lawn, Ridgeway, Shaw, Mannington and Western (part), Walcot and Park North, and Wroughton and Wichelstowe. The constituency
104-1055: A bellwether of the national result. Buckland was the Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice between July 2019 and September 2021, and Secretary of State for Wales from July to October 2022. At the 2024 election, the result again aligned with the national result: Heidi Alexander won the seat for Labour with a 16% swing. 51°33′32″N 1°46′55″W / 51.559°N 1.782°W / 51.559; -1.782 List of United Kingdom Parliament constituencies King Charles III [REDACTED] William, Prince of Wales [REDACTED] Charles III ( King-in-Council ) [REDACTED] Starmer ministry ( L ) Keir Starmer ( L ) Angela Rayner ( L ) ( King-in-Parliament ) [REDACTED] Charles III [REDACTED] [REDACTED] [REDACTED] The Lord Reed The Lord Hodge Andrew Bailey Monetary Policy Committee The Parliament of
156-492: A bellwether, Sunderland South (Labour since 1964) was often used in election programming to predict the swing of a general election - principally because it was often the first to declare - though with variable accuracy. Since Greater London formed during 1964–1965, Hammersmith and Fulham London Borough Council elections have matched those of the party who run (usually with the GLA, or more lately Mayor of London and Assembly)
208-514: A geographic region (state, province, etc.) will vote during elections. Bellwethers in the United States typically change every election cycle due to shifts in the electorate. Bellwethers also differ by the type of elections: a midterm bellwether differs from a presidential bellwether or a party primary bellwether. American statistician and political scientist Edward Tufte and his student Richard Sun defined electoral bellwethers (in
260-409: A leading indicator of an economic trend . In the stock market , a 'bellwether' is a company or stock taken to be a leading indicator of the direction in a sector, in an industry or in the market as a whole. Bellwether stocks therefore serve as short-term guides. JPMorgan Chase is a U.S. example of a bellwether. As one of the major banks in the United States, its stock sets the tone for the rest of
312-717: A limited extent. In the Philippines, the winner of the Philippine presidential election has won in Negros Oriental in all instances since 1935 except for 1961 and 2016 , and in Basilan since its creation in December 1973 (first election in 1981 ). After Negros Oriental voted for the runner-up in 2016, Agusan del Norte and Lanao del Sur then had the longest active streak, having its provincial winners be
364-496: A majority of Fianna Fáil TDs in years when Fianna Fáil formed the government, and a majority of Fine Gael and Labour TDs when those parties formed the government. In New Zealand, there are three generally accepted bellwether electorates: Hamilton East and Hamilton West , both based around the city of Hamilton , and Northcote on Auckland 's North Shore. Hamilton West and Northcote missed one election each since they were first contested in 1969 and 1996 respectively —
416-665: A reduction of 13 seats. Primary legislation provides for the independence of the boundary commissions for each of the four parts of the UK, the number of seats for each of the countries, permissible factors to use in departing from any old boundaries, and a strong duty to consult. The Fifth Review was governed by the Parliamentary Constituencies Act of 1986 . Under the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011 , as amended by
468-498: A set length of time Electoral record of the states for presidential elections, 1896–2024: Highest percentage of the current party system , 1980-2024 Smallest deviation from the national average Another way to measure how much a state's results reflect the national average is how far the state deviates from the national results. The states with the least deviation from a two-party presidential vote from 1896 to 2012 include: States that were considered bellwether states from
520-713: A sixth of Scotland, to the densely-populated London constituency of Islington North . As of the 2024 election there are 543 constituencies in England, 32 in Wales, 57 in Scotland and 18 in Northern Ireland. The "Region" of the table refers to the NUTS 1 statistical region of England , which coincides with the former European Parliament constituency in which the constituency was included until 31 January 2020. Following
572-564: Is no smaller than 69,724 and no larger than 77,062. The exceptions to this rule are five 'protected' constituencies for island areas: Orkney and Shetland , Na h-Eileanan an Iar , Ynys Mon , and two constituencies on the Isle of Wight . These consequently have smaller electorates than the lower limit for other constituencies. As the number of electors in each constituency is similar, the constituencies themselves vary considerably in area, ranging in 2019 from Ross, Skye and Lochaber , which occupies
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#1732776456833624-587: The 1993 election for Hamilton West and the 2005 election for Northcote. Hamilton East, first contested in 1972, has missed three elections — 1993, 1999 , and 2005. They were all held by the National Party in the 2017 election although Labour formed the government after the election. Since the National Party was still returned as the largest party in Parliament, however, the two electorates did in fact retain their bellwether status, albeit to
676-418: The 1999 , 2003 and 2007 elections. The American states with the current longest streak of voting for the winners in the electoral college are Michigan , Pennsylvania , and Wisconsin ; their streaks date back to 2008. The American bellwether states can also be determined in different ways (with respect to presidential elections): Highest percentage for varying lengths of time Highest percentage for
728-546: The 2010 general election after proposals made by the boundary commissions for England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (the Fifth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies ) were adopted through statutory instruments . Constituencies in Scotland remained unchanged, as the Boundary Commission for Scotland had completed a review just before the 2005 general election , which had resulted in
780-875: The 2021 German federal election the SPD placed first in 12 out of 16 states, including Schleswig-Holstein and Lower Saxony as well as federally while being led by former First Mayor of Hamburg , Olaf Scholz , the State of Hamburg borders both Lower Saxony and Schleswig-Holstein, but Scholz did not run in Hamburg during that election, instead representing the District Potsdam – Potsdam-Mittelmark II – Teltow-Fläming II in Brandenburg (where he incidentally ran against Annalena Baerbock candidate for chancellor of Alliance 90/The Greens , drawing additional media attention to
832-459: The 2024 general election , the constituency is composed of the following (as they existed on 1 December 2020): The changes included the transfer of the Covingham and Nythe districts from Swindon North ; the adjustment of the boundary around Nythe ensured that the whole of the parish of Nythe, Eldene and Liden falls within the constituency. At the same time, a substantial semi-rural area in
884-438: The House of Commons all see a change at least every few decades to avoid malapportionment , apart from a few island seats. It is possible to dispute any long-term bellwether, citing such changes. However, those below have kept the bulk of their electors in the main, named constituency identified with the place they are named after. Long-running bellwether constituencies Former bellwether constituencies While not strictly
936-462: The Middle English belle-weder , which referred to the practice of placing a bell around the neck of the lead wether (the castrated male sheep). A shepherd could then note the movements of the animals by hearing the bell, even when the flock was not in sight. The word was first used in the above meaning in the 15th century. In the world of economics and finance , a 'bellwether' is
988-645: The Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020 , the number of MPs is now fixed at 650. The Sainte-Laguë formula method is used to form groups of seats split between the four parts of the United Kingdom and the English regions (as defined by the NUTS 1 statistical regions of England ). The table below gives the number of eligible voters broken down by constituent country, including the average constituency size in each country. As of 2023, every recommended constituency must have an electorate as at 2 March 2020 that
1040-573: The Riksdag . While since long having shifted right versus the national results, by 2022 this had further extended. In that election Ljungby was 17 points more to the right than Sweden in general. According to Statistics Sweden , election results in Karlstad were the closest to the national results for three consecutive elections around the turn of the 21st century, a fact often highlighted by media through Gallup Polls showing voting intentions in
1092-563: The District). Two individual seats, Valsad and West Delhi , have successfully voted for the victorious party for the last eleven general elections in India . Furthermore, the party that wins the majority of seats in Delhi has always gone on to form the national government since 1998. The state of Uttar Pradesh is also seen as a bellwether, with the national government having been formed
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#17327764568331144-604: The Roughmoor area and looped back down to incorporate West Swindon , before following the railway east through the town and back to Dorcan. Settlements outside the Swindon built-up area include Wroughton , Chiseldon , Wanborough , and Liddington . 2024–present : Further to the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies , enacted by the Parliamentary Constituencies Order 2023, from
1196-545: The SPD and CDU/CSU respectively. Schleswig-Holstein is also famous for having had several state elections result in a one-seat majority for the winning coalition and Lower Saxony's 1998 election (in which Gerhard Schröder was the SPD candidate) is often seen as a "trial run" for the subsequent federal election (which Schröder also won). Of the first vote constituencies ( Erststimmen ), the constituency of Pinneberg (also located in Schleswig-Holstein) has voted for
1248-579: The Swindon South constituency, swinging in line with the national average in the New Labour landslide , produced a fairly safe majority for the Labour winner. Julia Drown had a majority of more than 5,000 which was extended in 2001 to more than 7,000 but then dropped dramatically on a new candidate's selection, to 1,353 in 2005. In 2010, Robert Buckland , a Conservative, gained South Swindon at
1300-619: The US) into the following categories: In Australian federal elections, the Division of Robertson in New South Wales became the nation's new longest-running bellwether seat, continuously won by the party that also won government since the 1983 federal election . Previously, the electoral division of Eden-Monaro elected its Member of Parliament from the party which won government at every federal election from 1972 until 2016 , when
1352-549: The United Kingdom currently has 650 parliamentary constituencies across the constituent countries ( England , Scotland , Wales , and Northern Ireland ), each electing a single member of parliament (MP) to the House of Commons by the plurality ( first-past-the-post ) voting system, ordinarily every five years. Voting last took place in all 650 of those constituencies at the United Kingdom general election on 4 July 2024 . The number of seats rose from 646 to 650 at
1404-544: The abandonment of the Sixth Periodic Review (the 2018 review), the Boundary Commissions formally launched the 2023 Review on 5 January 2021 and published their final proposals on 28 June 2023. See 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies and List of United Kingdom Parliament constituencies (2024–present) by region for further details. Bellwether In politics ,
1456-459: The area. Karlstad swung to the left in the 2010s and by 2022 was seven points to the left of Sweden. Therefore, Karlstad is no longer a proper bellwether town. By 2022, the status of bellwethers in Sweden often moved to post-industrial towns for differences between the various municipalities, but also some commuter towns being candidates. This status shifted rapidly due to the big cities moving to
1508-460: The banking industry. JPMorgan Chase also has contracts with companies in other industries, so its performance is reflected in other sectors of the market. Tata Consultancy Services is similarly a bellwether for technology stocks in the Indian markets, BSE and NSE . Similarly, a bellwether bond is "a government bond whose changes in interest rate are believed to show the future direction of
1560-447: The constituencies of Almond Valley , Dundee City West , Edinburgh Eastern , Glasgow Southside , Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley and Mid Fife and Glenrothes each elected an MSP from the largest party in the 2011 and 2016 elections. This continues the trend that their predecessor constituencies ( Livingston , Dundee West , Edinburgh East & Musselburgh , Glasgow Govan , Kilmarnock & Loudoun and Fife Central ) achieved in
1612-500: The elected president since the 1969 election . Lanao del Sur then voted for the loser in 2022, giving Agusan del Norte the longest streak. For vice presidential elections, Pangasinan has voted for the winner in all elections save for 1986 and 2016 . In every general election to the Portuguese National Assembly since the restoration of democracy in 1975, the electoral district of Braga has voted for
Swindon South (UK Parliament constituency) - Misplaced Pages Continue
1664-469: The general election with a majority of just over 3,500. In 2015, the Conservative majority increased to 5,785; in 2017, the Conservative majority fell to 2,464 on a 3.5% swing to Labour. In 2019, Buckland's majority rose to 6,625 (13%) and 52% of the vote, with a swing of 4.1% to Conservative. These patterns suggest a seat that is more marginal than its neighbour Swindon North, and one which has acted as
1716-418: The highest percentage in the elections. Presidential elections The counties that voted in the first round for the winning candidate: The expression " Som Ljungby röstar röstar Sverige " ('As Ljungby votes, Sweden votes') was coined in the early-1970s, but more recently (in 2006) voting results in Karlstad , Kalmar , and Halmstad more closely resembled the result of the whole nation in elections to
1768-418: The largest population of any Australian state or territory, could also be considered a "bellwether", as, until the 2016 federal election the party which wins government has won the majority of House of Representatives seats in that state at every election since 1963 . Unlike many bellwethers, these are cited by analysts solely for their record and are not usually attributed to demographic factors that reflect
1820-456: The left and smaller towns to the right. Among sizeable municipalities that came within half a point of the national average in 2022 included Alingsås , Borlänge , Gävle and Karlskoga . These municipalites were won by the right coalition with narrow margins. In addition, several smaller municipalities came close to the national coalition differential, although no locations closely mirrored exact party results. United Kingdom constituencies of
1872-510: The majority of times by the party that won the most seats in the state. Ireland has a proportional representation electoral system, in which politicians are elected by the single transferable vote . Bellwethers here can only be measured by the number of candidates from each side elected to Ireland's multiple-seat constituencies that elect an odd number of members. Between the 1981 general election and 2011 general election , Meath and its successors, Meath East and Meath West , have elected
1924-467: The median of Australia. Below are seats that have been classified as bellwether seats won by the party forming government at least once at one of the past 10 elections. Below the winning party is the two-party-preferred vote . In the Canadian province of Ontario , Sarnia—Lambton (and its predecessor ridings) voted for the winning party in every federal election from 1963 until 2011 . This streak
1976-459: The most London authorities except went its "miss" to Labour's majority of London councils in 2010 (which has endured since) and the reverse miss in 1978 and 1982. In the latter two results no overall control was the local result. The constituencies of Cunninghame North , Stirling and Na h-Eileanan an Iar have all elected MSPs from the party which won the plurality of seats in the election overall for every Scottish Parliament election . Also,
2028-417: The party of the subsequently chosen Chancellor in all elections except for 1949. Both the 1949 and the 1969 elections were rather narrow, the former resulting in a one-vote majority in the election for chancellor and the latter resulting in a 12-seat majority that had broken down due to defections by 1972. In 2005 SPD and CDU/CSU were only separated by one percentage point and four seats in the final tally. In
2080-467: The party of the subsequently chosen Chancellor the most times is Schleswig-Holstein (with two misses: 1969 and 2005 ), followed by the state of Lower Saxony (with misses in 1949 , 1969 and 2005). Both states lie in the North of the country, neither containing many large industrial cities (the biggest being Kiel and Hannover respectively), nor large rural Catholic populations, the traditional base of
2132-587: The party or coalition that has won the most seats in the election. (Note that following the elections of 2015 , a minority government was eventually formed by the second-largest party in the Assembly.) In every general, European Union , mayoral (except 2009), or presidential elections since the Carnation Revolution , the Portuguese capital of Lisbon voted for the party or coalition that won
Swindon South (UK Parliament constituency) - Misplaced Pages Continue
2184-511: The provincial electoral district Peace River has elected only three opposition MLAs since the province was founded in 1905. In Manitoba , the federal district of Winnipeg South has voted for the winning party in each election since it was re-formed in 1988 ; a previous version of the same riding, which elected MPs from 1917 until 1974 inclusive, voted against the national winner only three times, most recently in 1965 . Also in Manitoba,
2236-496: The provincial riding of Rossmere , which has existed since 1969 , has voted for the candidate from the governing party in every general election since it was first contested except for that of 1977 ; it also elected opposition MLAs at by-elections in 1979 and 1993. Since the creation of the Federal Republic of Germany (then West Germany ) in 1949, the state where the leading party list vote ( Zweitstimmen ) matched
2288-632: The record was broken after Labor won the seat, while the Coalition won government. The Division of Lindsay in NSW, has elected its Member of Parliament from the party which won government in every Federal election since its creation in 1984 until 2016. Both Lindsay and Eden-Monaro lost their bellwether status at the 2016 federal election , both electing Labor MPs, despite a narrow Coalition win nationwide. The Division of Makin in South Australia
2340-524: The rest of the bond market ." The quarterly Bellwether Report , published by the Institute of Practitioners in Advertising (IPA), monitors trends in expenditure in the UK advertising and marketing industry. In politics , the term bellwether often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that
2392-407: The result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. In a Westminster -style election, for example, a constituency , the control of which tends frequently to change, can have a popular vote that mirrors the result on a national scale. An electoral bellwether can be a ward , precinct , town , county , or other district that accurately reflects how
2444-631: The south, namely the Chiseldon and Wroughton districts, was transferred to the new constituency of East Wiltshire ; this involved the parishes of Bishopstone , Chiseldon, Liddington , Wanborough and Wroughton. Swindon is a railway town , and until the latter part of the 20th century the related works were the primary employer. Today, Swindon is the home of a number of large companies: examples specific to South Swindon include Intel 's European headquarters, Nationwide 's headquarters and Zurich Financial Services ' UK headquarters. Created in 1997,
2496-498: The term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. In economics , a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend . Sociologists apply the term in the active sense to a person or group of people who tend to create, influence, or set trends . The term derives from
2548-483: The winning party since 1984 . Also in Ontario, Peterborough—Kawartha (called Peterborough until 2015) has consistently elected the party which has won the provincial election since 1977 . In federal politics, the coterminous federal electoral district Peterborough—Kawartha (also called Peterborough until 2015) elected a member of the winning party from 1965 to 1979 and 1984 until 2021 , inclusive. In Alberta ,
2600-487: Was a bellwether division from 1984 to 2010, although ceased its bellwether record in 2013, when Makin stayed Labor as the Coalition regained power nationwide. Also, in terms of nationwide two party preferred vote, Eden-Monaro , Lindsay , Robertson and Makin have bucked the bellwether trend in the past by voting Liberal at the 1998 federal election . In purely statistical terms, the state of New South Wales , which has
2652-580: Was broken in 2015 , when the Conservative Party held the district while the Liberal Party won government, and the riding has become reliably Conservative since. Toronto—St. Paul's has only elected three opposition MPs since it contested its first election, as St. Paul's, in 1935 , although it has become reliably Liberal in recent years. Burlington and St. Catharines currently share the longest active streak, having elected an MP from
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#17327764568332704-519: Was created in 1997 from parts of the Swindon and Devizes seats. It covered the southern half of the town as well as farms, villages and hamlets to the immediate south and east of Swindon . There were slightly amended boundaries for the 2010 election, which saw it lose South Marston to North Swindon . The boundary ran from Dorcan across to Bishopstone and then down to Russley Park before turning west to Barbury Castle . From there it ran north to
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