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68-421: Wins Above Replacement or Wins Above Replacement Player , commonly abbreviated to WAR or WARP , is a non-standardized sabermetric baseball statistic developed to sum up "a player's total contributions to his team". A player's WAR value is claimed to be the number of additional wins his team has achieved above the number of expected team wins if that player were substituted with a replacement-level player :

136-431: A 1.0 WAR value for a player signifies a contribution of roughly 10 more runs than a replacement-level player , over a specified period of time. A replacement-level player is defined by FanGraphs as contributing 17.5 runs fewer than a player of league-average performance, over 600 plate appearances. Therefore, a 1.0 WAR player has contributed an estimated −7.5 runs relative to average over the same number of plate appearances,

204-473: A 2.0 WAR player has contributed +2.5 runs, and a 5.0 WAR player has contributed +32.5 runs. For an individual player, WAR values may be calculated for single seasons or parts of seasons, for several seasons, or across the whole career of the player. Collective WAR values for multiple players may also be estimated, for example to determine the contribution a team receives from its outfielders , its relief pitchers or from specific positions such as catcher . It

272-534: A batter can reach base besides a hit – as a batter on base can score runs, and runs, not hits, win ballgames. Even though slugging percentage and an early form of on-base percentage (OBP) – which takes into accounts base on balls ("walks") and hit-by-pitches – date to at least 1941, pre-dating both Bill James (born 1949) and SABR (formed 1971), enhanced focus was put on the relationship of times on base and run scoring by early SABR-era baseball statistical pioneers. SA and OBP were combined to create

340-529: A batter hitting a ground ball are recorded in baseball statistics as GIDP (grounded into double play). This statistic has been tracked since 1933 in the National League and since 1939 in the American League . This statistic does not include line-outs into double plays, for which there is no official statistic for a batter. The double play is a coup for the fielding team and debilitating to

408-418: A double play is referred to as "turning two" or a "twin killing" (a play on "twin billing", a moviehouse offering two features on the same ticket). Double plays are also known as "the pitcher's best friend" because they disrupt offense more than any other play, except for the rare triple play . A force double play made on a ground ball hit to the third baseman, who throws to the second baseman, who then throws to

476-440: A first baseman, +2.5 for a second or third baseman, +7.5 for a shortstop, −7.5 for a left fielder, +2.5 for a center fielder, −7.5 for a right fielder, and −17.5 for a designated hitter. These values are scaled to the number of games played by the player at each position. Baseball-Reference uses two components to calculate WAR for pitchers: runs allowed (both earned and unearned) and innings pitched. These statistics are then used in

544-411: A job he held until 2015, and hired his assistant Paul DePodesta . During the 2002 season, a noted "moneyball" Oakland A's team went on to win 20 games in a row, a term (and approach to the game) which soon gained national recognition when Michael Lewis published Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game (where "unfair" reflected the disparity in resources available to the big market teams versus

612-460: A number of further calculations to better contextualize the numbers. Rather than focus on actual runs allowed, Fangraphs uses fielding independent pitching (FIP) as their main component to calculate WAR as they feel it better reflects the contributions of the pitcher. In 2009, Dave Cameron stated that fWAR does an "impressive job of projecting wins and losses". He found that a team's projected record based on fWAR and that team's actual record has

680-440: A pitcher has a high BABIP, they will often show improvements in the following season, while a pitcher with low BABIP will often show a decline in the following season. This is based on the statistical concept of regression to the mean . Others have created various means of attempting to quantify individual pitches based on characteristics of the pitch, as opposed to runs earned or balls hit. Value over replacement player (VORP)

748-411: A pitcher is likely to put a player on base (either via walk, hit-by-pitch, or base hit) and thus how effective batters are against a particular pitcher in reaching base. A later development was the creation of defense independent pitching statistics (DIPS) system. Voros McCracken has been credited with the development of this system in 1999. Through his research, McCracken was able to show that there

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816-516: A player reflects successful performance, a large quantity of playing time, or both. The basis for a WAR value is the estimated number of runs contributed by a player through offensive actions such as batting and base running , and runs denied to opposition teams by the player through defensive actions like fielding and pitching . Statistics such as weighted on-base average (wOBA), ultimate zone rating (UZR), ultimate base running (UBR), and defense independent pitching statistics (DIPS) measure

884-530: A player who may be added to the team for minimal cost and effort. Individual WAR values are calculated from the number and success rate of on-field actions by a player (in batting , baserunning , fielding , and pitching ), with higher values reflecting larger contributions to a team's success . WAR value also depends on what position a player plays, with more value going to key defensive positions like catcher and shortstop than positions with less defensive importance such as first base. A high WAR value built up by

952-608: A player's career WAR with their seven-year peak WAR (not necessarily consecutive years). The final number is then used to measure the player's worthiness of being inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame by comparing it to the average JAWS of Hall of Fame players at that position. Baseball-Reference 's explanation of JAWS says, "The stated goal is to improve the Hall of Fame's standards, or at least to maintain them rather than erode them, by admitting players who are at least as good as

1020-414: A positional adjustment is applied, resulting in a player's "value added above league average". To this is added a scaled value to reflect the player's value compared to a replacement-level player, which is assumed to be 20 runs below average per 600 plate appearances . All four values are measured in runs. The positional adjustment is a value dependent on the players position: +12.5 for a catcher, −12.5 for

1088-449: A runner on first base with less than two outs. In that context, five example double plays are: Double plays can occur in many ways in addition to these examples, and can involve many combinations of fielders. A double play can include an out resulting from a rare event, such as interference or an appeal play . Per standard baseball positions , the examples given above are recorded, respectively, as: Double plays that are initiated by

1156-443: A strong correlation ( correlation coefficient of 0.83), and that every team was within two standard deviations (σ=6.4 wins). In 2012, Glenn DuPaul conducted a regression analysis comparing the cumulative rWAR of five randomly selected teams per season (from 1996 to 2011) against those teams' realized win totals for those seasons. He found that the two were highly correlated, with a correlation coefficient of 0.91, and that 83% of

1224-586: A team defense adjustment for Baseball-Reference's version. Because the independent WAR frameworks are calculated differently, they do not have the same scale and cannot be used interchangeably in an analytical context. Baseball-Reference uses six components to calculate WAR for position players: The components are batting runs, baserunning runs, runs added or lost due to grounding into double plays in double play situations, fielding runs, positional adjustment runs, and replacement level runs (based on playing time). The first five factors are compared to league average, so

1292-435: A value of 0 represents an average player. The term P r u n s − A r u n s {\displaystyle P_{runs}-A_{runs}} may be calculated from the first five factors, and the other term from the remaining factor. Batting runs depends on weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA), weighted to the offense of the league, and is calculated from wOBA . where Here, "AB"

1360-466: Is a bias favoring players from earlier eras because there was greater variance in skill levels at the time, so "the best players were further from the average than they are now". That is, in modern baseball, it is more difficult for a player to exceed the abilities of his peers than it was in the 1800s and the dead-ball and live-ball eras of the 1900s. James's criticism originates from the evolutionary biologist Stephen Jay Gould who, in 1996, published

1428-430: Is also heavily dependent on the pitcher's team, particularly on the number of runs it scores. Sabermetricians have attempted to find different measures of pitching performance that exclude the performances of the fielders involved. One of the earliest developed, and one of the most popular in use, is walks plus hits per inning pitched (WHIP), which while not completely defense-independent, tends to indicate how many times

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1496-437: Is also possible to extrapolate a future WAR value from a player's past performance data. No clearly established formula exists for WAR. Sources that provide the statistic calculate it differently. These include Baseball Prospectus , Baseball-Reference , and FanGraphs . All of these sources publish the method they use to calculate WAR, and all use similar basic principles to do so. The version published by Baseball Prospectus

1564-583: Is another popular sabermetric statistic for evaluating a player's contributions to his team. Similar to VORP, WAR compares a given player to a replacement-level player in order to determine the number of additional wins the player provides to his team relative to an average ballplayer at his position. WAR, like VORP a cumulative statistic, heavily reflects the amount of a player's playing time. "Static" statistics based on simple ratios of already accumulated data (like batting average) and accumulative tallies (such as pitching wins) do not fully reveal all aspects of

1632-574: Is at least one baserunner and fewer than two outs. In Major League Baseball (MLB), the double play is defined in the Official Rules in the Definitions of Terms , and for the official scorer in Rule 9.11. During the 2023 Major League Baseball season , teams completed an average 132 double plays per 162 games played during the regular season . The simplest scenario for a double play is

1700-570: Is little to no difference between pitchers in the number of hits they allow on balls put into play – regardless of their skill level. Some examples of these statistics are defense-independent ERA , fielding independent pitching, and defense-independent component ERA . Other sabermetricians have furthered the work in DIPS, such as Tom Tango who runs the Tango on Baseball sabermetrics website. Baseball Prospectus created another statistics called

1768-430: Is named WARP, that by Baseball-Reference is named bWAR or rWAR ("r" derives from Rally or RallyMonkey, a nickname for Sean Smith, who implemented that site's version of the statistic) and that for Fangraphs is named fWAR. Compared to rWAR, the calculation of fWAR places greater emphasis on peripheral statistics. WAR values are scaled equally for pitchers and batters; that is, pitchers and position players will have roughly

1836-410: Is the earned run average (ERA). It is calculated as earned runs allowed per nine innings. Earned run average does not separate the ability of the pitcher from the abilities of the fielders that he plays with. Another classic measure for pitching is a pitcher's winning percentage . Winning percentage is calculated by dividing wins by the total number of decisions (wins plus losses). Winning percentage

1904-424: Is the number of at bats , "BB" the number of base on balls ("uBB" is unintentional base on balls and "IBB" is intentional base on balls ), HBP the number of times hit by pitch , "SF" the number of sacrifice flies , "SH" the number of sacrifice hits , "1B" the number of singles , "2B" the number of doubles , "3B" the number of triples , "HR" the number of home runs , "SB" the number of stolen bases , and "CS"

1972-451: Is the sum of the positional adjustment for each position played by the player scaled to the number of games played by the player at that position, normalized to 1,350 innings. The FanGraphs formula for position players involves offense, defense, and base running. These are measured using weighted Runs Above Average, Ultimate zone rating (UZR), and Ultimate base running (UBR), respectively. These values are adjusted using park factors , and

2040-646: The 2017 Major League Baseball season , there was debate similar to 2012 regarding who should be the recipient of the American League Most Valuable Player Award: Jose Altuve or Aaron Judge . Judge outranked Altuve in FanGraphs' calculation of WAR that season, finishing first with a WAR of 8.2, to Altuve's 7.5. Based on Baseball-Reference's calculation, Altuve had the edge, 8.3 to 8.1. However, in James's words,

2108-586: The American League . The two candidates considered by most writers were Miguel Cabrera , who won the Triple Crown , and Mike Trout , who led Major League Baseball in WAR. The debate focused on the use of traditional baseball statistics , such as RBIs and home runs , compared with sabermetric statistics such as WAR. Cabrera led the American League in batting average , home runs, and RBIs, but Trout

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2176-740: The Baseball Writers' Association of America . He and Trout posted similar seasons in 2013; Cabrera again won the MVP. Dave Cameron disagreed, in a FanGraphs article: Over the last two years, we have seen two of the very best seasons in baseball history, and they've gone essentially unrecognized by the organization that has been tasked with recording history. We have been lucky enough to see an in-his-prime Mickey Mantle in modern times, and instead of celebrating that, we’ve spent Novembers explaining why his teammates' inferiority should keep him from winning an individual award. Bill James states that there

2244-759: The Chicago Cubs between 1902 and 1912. Their double play against the New York Giants in a 1910 game inspired Giants fan Franklin Pierce Adams to write the short poem Baseball's Sad Lexicon , otherwise known as Tinker to Evers to Chance , which immortalized the trio. All three players were part of the Cubs team that won the National League pennant in 1906, 1907, 1908, and 1910, and the World Series in 1907 and 1908, turning 491 double plays on

2312-678: The New York Mets in 1984, he arranged for a team employee to write a dBASE II application to compile and store advanced metrics on team statistics. Craig R. Wright was another employee in MLB, working with the Texas Rangers in the early 1980s. During his time with the Rangers, he became known as the first front office employee in MLB history to work under the title "sabermetrician". David Smith founded Retrosheet in 1989, with

2380-418: The peripheral ERA . This measure of a pitcher's performance takes hits, walks, home runs allowed, and strikeouts while adjusting for ballpark factors. Each ballpark has different dimensions when it comes to the outfield wall so a pitcher should not be measured the same for each of these parks. Batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is another useful measurement for determining pitchers’ performance. When

2448-406: The variance in wins was explained by fWAR ( R =0.83). The standard deviation was 2.91 wins. The regression equation was: which was close to the expected equation: in which a team of replacement-level players is expected to have a .320 winning percentage , or 52 wins in a 162-game season. To test fWAR as a predictive tool, DuPaul executed a regression between a team's cumulative player WAR from

2516-502: The 2012 season, the Toronto Blue Jays employed an infield shift against some left-handed batters, such as David Ortiz or Carlos Peña , in which third baseman Brett Lawrie would be assigned to shallow right field. This resulted in a very high Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) total for Lawrie, and hence a high rWAR, which uses DRS as a component. Ben Jedlovec, an analyst for DRS creator Baseball Info Solutions, said that Lawrie

2584-584: The Baseball-Reference version of WAR on its own statistics pages for position players and pitchers. The importance of WAR compared to typical statistical categories has been the subject of ongoing debate. For example, nearing the end of the 2012 Major League Baseball season and afterward, there was much debate about which player should win the Major League Baseball Most Valuable Player Award for

2652-1015: The Week and MVP). Those which are most useful in evaluating past performance and predicting future outcomes are valuable in determining a player's contributions to his team, potential trades, contract negotiations, and arbitration. Recently, sabermetrics has been expanded to examining ballplayer minor league performance in AA and AAA ball in a manner similar to evaluating it at the Major League level, known as Minor-League Equivalency. Machine learning and other forms of artificial intelligence (AI) can be applied to predicting future outcomes in baseball modeling, in-game strategy, personnel handling, and roster-building and contract negotiations. Bill James' two books, The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract (1985) and Win Shares (2002) have continued to advance

2720-400: The average Hall of Famer at the position, using a means via which longevity isn't the sole determinant of worthiness." For example, as of November 30, 2021, retired third baseman Adrián Beltré has accumulated 93.5 career WAR, and 48.7 WAR from his best seven seasons combined. Averaged together, these numbers give Beltré a JAWS of 71.1. Sabermetrics The term moneyball is used for

2788-399: The batting team. The fielding team can select pitches to induce a double play — such as a sinker , which is more likely to be hit as a ground ball — and can position fielders to make a ground ball more likely to be turned into a double play. The batting team may take action — such as a hit and run play — to reduce the chance of grounding into a force double play. In baseball slang , making

Wins Above Replacement - Misplaced Pages Continue

2856-439: The book Full House which argued the same point with respect to batting averages. The bias mentioned by Gould and James was confirmed in a statistical study which showed that ranking lists based on WAR do in fact include too many players from the earlier eras. This study challenges the stance that WAR properly adjusts for era differences. James's criticism has also stemmed from the application and usage of WAR in recent years. In

2924-481: The early 1970s Baltimore Orioles of Major League Baseball (MLB), used an IBM System/360 at team owner Jerold Hoffberger 's brewery to write a FORTRAN -based baseball computer simulation . In spite of his results, he was unable to persuade his manager Earl Weaver that he should bat second in the lineup. He wrote IBM BASIC programs to help him manage the Tidewater Tides , and after becoming manager of

2992-415: The effectiveness of a player at creating and saving runs for their team, on a per- plate appearance or per- inning basis. These statistics can be multiplied by the playing time of a player to give an estimate of the number of offensive and defensive runs contributed to their team. Additional runs contributed to a team lead to additional wins, with 10 runs estimated to be equal to roughly one win. Therefore,

3060-423: The field of sabermetrics. The work of his former assistant Rob Neyer , who later became a senior writer at ESPN.com and national baseball editor of SBNation, also contributed to popularizing sabermetrics since the mid-1980s. Nate Silver , a former writer and managing partner of Baseball Prospectus , invented PECOTA ( Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm ) in 2002–2003, introducing it to

3128-461: The first baseman, is referred to as an "around the horn" double play. The ability to "make the pivot" on a force double play – receiving a throw from the third base side, then quickly turning and throwing to first base – is a key skill for a second baseman. The most famous double play trio—although they never set any records—were Joe Tinker , Johnny Evers and Frank Chance , who were the shortstop, second baseman and first baseman, respectively, for

3196-524: The game represented in their numeric totals. Advanced metrics are increasingly developed and targeted to addressing in-game activities (such as when a team should attempt to steal a base, and when to bring closers in). Sabermetrics are commonly used for everything from sportswriting to baseball Hall of Fame consideration, selecting player match-ups and evaluating in-game strategic options. Advanced statistical measures may be utilized in determining in-season and end-of-the-season awards (such as Player of

3264-418: The game, including batting, pitching, baserunning, and fielding. A ballplayer's batting average (BA) (simply hits divided by at-bats ) was the historic measure of a player's offensive performance, enhanced by slugging percentage (SA) which incorporated their ability to hit for power. Bill James, along with other early sabermetricians, was concerned that batting average did not incorporate other ways

3332-420: The late innings of close games, and that WAR does not properly take this into account. Other advanced statistics such as RE24 suggest the opposite, with Judge at 50.91 and Altuve at 38.76. Some sabermetricians "have been distancing themselves from the importance of single-season WAR values" because some of the defensive metrics incorporated into WAR calculations have significant variability . For example, during

3400-677: The modern statistic on-base plus slugging (OPS). OPS is the sum of the on-base percentage and the slugging percentage. This modern statistic has become useful in comparing players and is a powerful method of predicting runs scored by any given player. An enhanced version of OPS, "OPS+", incorporates OPS, historic statistics, ballpark considerations, and defensive position weightings to attempt to allow player performance from different eras to be compared. Some other advanced metrics used to evaluate batting performance are weighted on-base average , secondary average , runs created , and equivalent average . The traditional measure of pitching performance

3468-422: The number of caught stealing . α 1 {\displaystyle \alpha _{1}} to α 8 {\displaystyle \alpha _{8}} represent weighting coefficients . Baseball-Reference eliminates pitcher batting results from its data, computes linear weights and wOBA coefficients for each league, then scales the values for each league and season. As of 2024,

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3536-541: The objective of computerizing the box score of every major league baseball game ever played, in order to more accurately collect and compare the statistics of the game. The Oakland Athletics began to use a more quantitative approach to baseball by focusing on sabermetric principles in the 1990s. This initially began with Sandy Alderson as the general manager of the team when he used the principles toward obtaining relatively undervalued players. His ideas were continued when Billy Beane took over as general manager in 1997,

3604-409: The plate, location, and angle (if any) of a break. FanGraphs is a website that utilizes this information and other play-by-play data to publish advanced baseball statistics and graphics. Double play In baseball and softball , a double play (denoted as DP in baseball statistics ) is the act of making two outs during the same continuous play. Double plays can occur any time there

3672-422: The positional adjustment is a value dependent on the player's position: +9 for a catcher , −9.5 for a first baseman , +3 for a second baseman , +2 for a third baseman , +7 for a shortstop , −7 for a left fielder , +2.5 for a center fielder , −7 for a right fielder , and −15 for a designated hitter . These values are set assuming 1,350 innings played (150 games of 9 innings). A player's positional adjustment

3740-474: The practice of using metrics to identify "undervalued players" and sign them to what ideally will become "below market value" contracts, which debuted in the efforts of small market teams to compete with the much greater resources of big market ones. English-American sportswriter Henry Chadwick developed the box score in New York City in 1858. This was the first way statisticians were able to describe

3808-508: The previous year to the team's realized wins for that year. The resultant regression equation was: which has a statistically significant correlation of 0.59, meaning that 35% (the square of 0.59) of the variance in team wins could be accounted for by the cumulative fWAR of its players from the previous season. WAR is recognized as an official stat by Major League Baseball and by the Elias Sports Bureau , and ESPN publishes

3876-470: The public in the book Baseball Prospectus in 2003. It assumes that the careers of similar players will follow a similar trajectory. Beginning in the 2007 baseball season, MLB started looking at technology to record detailed information regarding each pitch that is thrown in a game. This became known as the PITCHf/x system, which uses video cameras to record pitch speed at its release point and crossing

3944-403: The same WAR if their contribution to their team is deemed similar. However, the values are calculated differently for pitchers and position players: position players are evaluated using statistics for fielding, base running, and hitting, while pitchers are evaluated using statistics related to the opposing batters' hits, walks, and strikeouts in FanGraphs' version and runs allowed per 9 innings with

4012-586: The small) in 2003 to detail Beane's use of advanced metrics. In 2011, a film based on Lewis' book – also called Moneyball – was released and gave broad exposure to the techniques used in the Oakland Athletics' front office. Sabermetrics reflected a desire by a handful of baseball enthusiasts to expand their understanding of the game by revealing new insights that may have been hidden in its traditional statistics. Their early efforts ultimately evolved into evaluating players in every aspect of

4080-441: The sport of baseball by numerically tracking various aspects of game play. The creation of the box score has given baseball statisticians a summary of the individual and team performances for a given game. What would become the earliest Sabermetrics research in the 1970s and 1980s began in the middle of the 20th century with the writings of Earnshaw Cook , one of the earliest baseball analysts. Cook's 1964 book Percentage Baseball

4148-499: The usage of WAR in this particular MVP argument was "...nonsense. Aaron Judge was nowhere near as valuable as Jose Altuve….  It is not close. The belief that it is close is fueled by bad statistical analysis.” He goes on to say that WAR,“...is dead wrong because the creators of that statistic have severed the connection between performance statistics and wins, thus undermining their analysis.” He goes on to point out that Judge performed worse than Altuve in critical situations, such as

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4216-608: The way. They were elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame in 1946. Source: Jim Rice : 36 (Boston Red Sox, 1984) Albert Pujols : 426 The team record for a single game is seven GIDPs, set by the San Francisco Giants on May 4, 1969, in a 3–1 loss to the Houston Astros. The Pittsburgh Pirates suffered seven double plays (only six GIDPs) on August 17, 2018, in a 1–0 loss to

4284-599: Was "making plays in places where very few third basemen are making those plays" because of the "optimal positioning by the Blue Jays". Another fielding metric, Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), uses the DRS data but excludes runs saved as a result of a shift. Jay Jaffe, a writer for Baseball Prospectus and a member of the Baseball Writers' Association of America , adapted WAR for a statistic he developed in 2004 called " Jaffe Wins Above Replacement Score ," or JAWS. The metric averages

4352-695: Was a widespread misunderstanding about how the game of baseball was played, claiming the sport was not defined by its rules but actually, as summarized by engineering professor Richard J. Puerzer, "defined by the conditions under which the game is played – specifically, the ballparks but also the players, the ethics, the strategies, the equipment, and the expectations of the public." Early Sabermetricians – sometimes considered baseball statisticians – began trying to enhance such fundamental baseball statistics as batting average (simply at-bats divided by hits) with advanced mathematical formulations. The correlation between team batting average and runs scored

4420-403: Was also examined, as runs – not hits – win ballgames. Thus, a good measure of a player's worth would be his ability to help his team score runs, which was observed to be highly correlated with his number of times on base – leading to the development of a new stat, "on-base percentage". Before Bill James popularized sabermetrics, Davey Johnson , then a second baseman playing for

4488-423: Was considered a more complete player by some. Relative to the average player, Cabrera contributed an extra 53.1 runs through batting, but −8.2 through defense and −2.9 through baserunning, while Trout contributed 50.1 batting runs, 13.0 defensive runs, and 12.0 baserunning runs. Cabrera, the only one of the two players whose team entered the postseason, won the award in a landslide, with 22 of 28 first-place votes from

4556-403: Was once considered a popular sabermetric statistic. This statistic attempts to demonstrate how much a player contributes to his team in comparison to a hypothetical player performing at the minimum level needed to hold a roster position on a major league team. It was invented by Keith Woolner, a former writer for the sabermetric group/website Baseball Prospectus . Wins above replacement (WAR)

4624-402: Was one of the first of its kind. At first, most organized baseball teams and professionals dismissed Cook's work as meaningless. The idea of a science of baseball statistics began to achieve legitimacy in 1977 when Bill James began releasing Baseball Abstracts , his annual compendium of baseball data. However, James's ideas were slow to find widespread acceptance. Bill James believed there

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