20-811: The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service ( CAMS ) is a service implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), launched in November 11, 2014, that provides continuous data and information on atmospheric composition. CAMS, which is part of the Copernicus Programme , describes the current situation, forecasts the situation a few days ahead, and analyses consistently retrospective data records for recent years. This service has around 10 years of developments, and its current precursor project, MACC-III (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate - Interim Implementation),
40-502: A clearer picture of how the climate has changed. Reanalysis provides a four-dimensional picture of the atmosphere and effectively allows monitoring of the variability and change of global climate, thereby contributing also to the understanding and attribution of climate change. To date, and with support from Europe's National Meteorological Services and the European Commission, ECMWF has conducted several major reanalyses of
60-664: A day per decade, so that a seven-day forecast now (2015) is as accurate as a three-day forecast was four decades ago (1975). ECMWF's monthly and seasonal forecasts provide early predictions of events such as heat waves , cold spells and droughts, as well as their impacts on sectors such as agriculture, energy and health. Since ECMWF runs a wave model, there are also predictions of coastal waves and storm surges in European waters which can be used to provide warnings. Forecasts of severe weather events allow appropriate mitigating action to be taken and contingency plans to be put into place by
80-585: A former tobacco factory, would be redesigned by the architecture firm gmp . During 2020, the Centre arranged to move its Copernicus operations away from Reading and into European Union territory. Following bids from Toulouse, Italy, Austria, Germany, Spain and Ireland, eventually Bonn (Germany) was chosen. The move has been directly attributed to Brexit . ECMWF aims to provide accurate medium-range global weather forecasts out to 15 days and seasonal forecasts out to 12 months. Its products are provided to
100-435: A major contribution to improving the accuracy and utility of NWP forecasts. ECMWF continuously endeavours to improve the use of satellite observations for NWP. ECMWF supports research on climate variability using an approach known as reanalysis . This involves feeding weather observations collected over decades into a NWP system to recreate past atmospheric, sea- and land-surface conditions over specific time periods to obtain
120-499: A weather situation without having to define specific space- and time-dependent thresholds. ECMWF, through its partnerships with EUMETSAT, ESA, the EU and others, exploits satellite data for operational numerical weather prediction and operational seasonal forecasting with coupled atmosphere–ocean–land models. The increasing amount of satellite data and the development of more sophisticated ways of extracting information from that data have made
140-559: Is delivering the pre-operational Copernicus Atmosphere Service. CAMS tracks air pollution, solar energy , greenhouse gases and climate forcing globally. CAMs is one of the six services that are part of the earth observation programme called Copernicus , which is managed and coordinated by the European Commission , the European Space Agency (ESA), along with EU Member States and some EU Agencies. Copernicus
160-653: Is one of the six thematic services provided by the European Union's Copernicus Programme . The Copernicus Programme is managed by the European Commission and the C3S is implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The objective of the Copernicus Climate Change Service is to build an EU knowledge base in support of mitigation and adaptation policies for Climate Change and Global Warming . The goal of
180-670: Is run 51 times in parallel, from slightly different initial conditions to give a spread of likelihood over the range of the forecast. As of 2021, the ECMWF's weather model is generally considered to be the most accurate weather forecasting model. ECMWF comprises 23 European countries: It also has co-operation agreements with other states: Bulgaria , Czech Republic , Georgia , Hungary , Israel , Latvia , Lithuania , North Macedonia , Montenegro , Morocco , Romania and Slovakia . Copernicus Climate Change Service The Copernicus Climate Change Service (abbreviated as C3S )
200-401: Is used to produce an initial state of a computer model of the atmosphere, from which an atmospheric model is used to forecast the weather. These forecasts are typically: Over the past three decades ECMWF's wide-ranging programme of research has played a major role in developing such assimilation and modelling systems. This improves the accuracy and reliability of weather forecasting by about
220-732: The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) and the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). The Centre arranged to move its Copernicus operations away from Reading and into Bonn (Germany). The move has been directly attributed to Brexit . Numerical weather prediction (NWP) requires input of meteorological data, collected by satellites and earth observation systems such as automatic and crewed weather stations , aircraft (including commercial flights ), ships and weather balloons . Assimilation of this data
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#1732782876961240-636: The United States . It also predicted the intensity and track of the November 2012 nor'easter , which impacted the east coast a week after Sandy. ECMWF's Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) was developed as a tool to identify where the EPS (Ensemble Prediction System) forecast distribution differs substantially from that of the model climate . It contains information regarding variability of weather parameters, in location and time and can highlight an abnormality of
260-440: The United States as the "European model") which is run every twelve hours and forecasts out to ten days. It includes both a "deterministic forecast" mode and an ensemble . The deterministic forecast is a single model run that is relatively high in resolution as well as in computational expense. The ensemble is relatively low (about half that of the deterministic) in resolution (and in computational expense), so less accurate. But it
280-468: The authorities and the public. The increased time gained by issuing accurate warnings can save lives, for instance by evacuating people from a storm surge area. Authorities and businesses can plan to maintain services around threats such as high winds, floods or snow. In October 2012 the ECMWF model suggested seven days in advance that Hurricane Sandy was likely to make landfall on the East Coast of
300-683: The dynamics, thermodynamics and composition of the Earth's atmosphere and for interacting parts of the Earth-system. It uses numerical weather prediction methods to prepare forecasts and their initial conditions, and it contributes to monitoring the relevant parts of the Earth system. The centre currently serves as the Entrusted Entity responsible for delivery of two of the Services of the EU's Copernicus Programme . The two services are
320-595: The global atmosphere: the first ECMWF re-analysis (ERA-15) project generated reanalyses from December 1978 to February 1994; the ERA-40 project generated reanalyses from September 1957 to August 2002. The ERA-Interim reanalysis covered the period from 1979 onwards. A reanalysis product (ERA5) with higher spatial resolution (31 km) was released by ECMWF in 2019 as part of the Copernicus Climate Change Service . ECMWF's operational forecasts are produced from its " Integrated Forecast System " (sometimes informally known in
340-488: The national weather services of its member states and co-operating states as a complement to their national short-range and climatological activities, and those national states use ECMWF's products for their own national duties, in particular to give early warning of potentially damaging severe weather. ECMWF's core mission is to: To deliver this core mission, the Centre provides: The Centre develops and operates global atmospheric models and data assimilation systems for
360-489: The nations of Europe. It is based at three sites: Shinfield Park , Reading , United Kingdom ; Bologna , Italy; and Bonn , Germany. It operates one of the largest supercomputer complexes in Europe and the world's largest archive of numerical weather prediction data. ECMWF was established in 1975, in recognition of the need to pool the scientific and technical resources of Europe's meteorological services and institutions for
380-479: The production of weather forecasts for medium-range timescales (up to approximately two weeks) and of the economic and social benefits expected from it. The Centre employs about 350 staff, mostly appointed from across the member states and co-operating states. In 2017, the centre's member states accepted an offer from the Italian Government to move ECMWF's data centre to Bologna , Italy. The new site,
400-407: Was established on April 3, 2014. Prior to Copernicus, the EU had initiated GMES in 2010. This article related to a space programme based in Europe is a stub . You can help Misplaced Pages by expanding it . European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF ) is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by most of
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