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118-587: In March 2020, a group of member organizations of the Open Space Council launched Together Bay Area to replace the former organization. One of the Open Space Council's projects was the Conservation Lands Network, a vision for the region's efforts to preserve biodiversity . Part of a five-year science-based study by over 125 organizations and individuals, the project was tasked to identify the most essential lands needed to sustain

236-489: A 10% increase in biodiversity, which was canceled out by a loss in low-income countries. This is despite the fact that high-income countries use five times the ecological resources of low-income countries, which was explained as a result of a process whereby wealthy nations are outsourcing resource depletion to poorer nations, which are suffering the greatest ecosystem losses. A 2017 study published in PLOS One found that

354-562: A broader sense also includes previous long-term changes to Earth's climate. The current rise in global temperatures is driven by human activities , especially fossil fuel burning since the Industrial Revolution . Fossil fuel use, deforestation , and some agricultural and industrial practices release greenhouse gases . These gases absorb some of the heat that the Earth radiates after it warms from sunlight , warming

472-501: A country, endangered species are initially supported on a national level then internationally. Ecotourism may be utilized to support the economy and encourages tourists to continue to visit and support species and ecosystems they visit, while they enjoy the available amenities provided. International biodiversity impacts global livelihood, food systems, and health. Problematic pollution, over consumption, and climate change can devastate international biodiversity. Nature-based solutions are

590-517: A critical tool for a global resolution. Many species are in danger of becoming extinct and need world leaders to be proactive with the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework . Terrestrial biodiversity is thought to be up to 25 times greater than ocean biodiversity. Forests harbour most of Earth's terrestrial biodiversity. The conservation of the world's biodiversity is thus utterly dependent on

708-590: A decadal timescale. Other changes are caused by an imbalance of energy from external forcings . Examples of these include changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases , solar luminosity , volcanic eruptions, and variations in the Earth's orbit around the Sun. To determine the human contribution to climate change, unique "fingerprints" for all potential causes are developed and compared with both observed patterns and known internal climate variability . For example, solar forcing—whose fingerprint involves warming

826-455: A first-order positive feedback (more ancestors, more descendants) and/or a negative feedback arising from resource limitation. Hyperbolic model implies a second-order positive feedback. Differences in the strength of the second-order feedback due to different intensities of interspecific competition might explain the faster rediversification of ammonoids in comparison to bivalves after the end-Permian extinction . The hyperbolic pattern of

944-460: A limit would also cap the number of species. While records of life in the sea show a logistic pattern of growth, life on land (insects, plants and tetrapods) shows an exponential rise in diversity. As one author states, "Tetrapods have not yet invaded 64 percent of potentially habitable modes and it could be that without human influence the ecological and taxonomic diversity of tetrapods would continue to increase exponentially until most or all of

1062-542: A lot of light to being dark after the ice has melted, they start absorbing more heat . Local black carbon deposits on snow and ice also contribute to Arctic warming. Arctic surface temperatures are increasing between three and four times faster than in the rest of the world. Melting of ice sheets near the poles weakens both the Atlantic and the Antarctic limb of thermohaline circulation , which further changes

1180-412: A marked increase in temperature. Ongoing changes in climate have had no precedent for several thousand years. Multiple independent datasets all show worldwide increases in surface temperature, at a rate of around 0.2 °C per decade. The 2014–2023 decade warmed to an average 1.19 °C [1.06–1.30 °C] compared to the pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900). Not every single year was warmer than

1298-408: A physical climate model. These models simulate how population, economic growth , and energy use affect—and interact with—the physical climate. With this information, these models can produce scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions. This is then used as input for physical climate models and carbon cycle models to predict how atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases might change. Depending on

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1416-405: A report saying that "biodiversity is being destroyed at a rate unprecedented in human history". The report claims that 68% of the population of the examined species were destroyed in the years 1970 – 2016. Of 70,000 monitored species, around 48% are experiencing population declines from human activity (in 2023), whereas only 3% have increasing populations. Rates of decline in biodiversity in

1534-461: A result of climate change. Global sea level is rising as a consequence of thermal expansion and the melting of glaciers and ice sheets . Sea level rise has increased over time, reaching 4.8 cm per decade between 2014 and 2023. Over the 21st century, the IPCC projects 32–62 cm of sea level rise under a low emission scenario, 44–76 cm under an intermediate one and 65–101 cm under

1652-474: A result. The World Health Organization calls climate change one of the biggest threats to global health in the 21st century. Societies and ecosystems will experience more severe risks without action to limit warming . Adapting to climate change through efforts like flood control measures or drought-resistant crops partially reduces climate change risks, although some limits to adaptation have already been reached. Poorer communities are responsible for

1770-417: A small share of global emissions , yet have the least ability to adapt and are most vulnerable to climate change . Many climate change impacts have been observed in the first decades of the 21st century, with 2023 the warmest on record at +1.48 °C (2.66 °F) since regular tracking began in 1850. Additional warming will increase these impacts and can trigger tipping points , such as melting all of

1888-538: A third of the Earth's land mass) and are home to approximately 80% of the world's biodiversity. About 1 billion hectares are covered by primary forests. Over 700 million hectares of the world's woods are officially protected. The biodiversity of forests varies considerably according to factors such as forest type, geography, climate and soils – in addition to human use. Most forest habitats in temperate regions support relatively few animal and plant species and species that tend to have large geographical distributions, while

2006-548: A very high emission scenario. Marine ice sheet instability processes in Antarctica may add substantially to these values, including the possibility of a 2-meter sea level rise by 2100 under high emissions. Climate change has led to decades of shrinking and thinning of the Arctic sea ice . While ice-free summers are expected to be rare at 1.5 °C degrees of warming, they are set to occur once every three to ten years at

2124-519: A warming level of 2 °C. Higher atmospheric CO 2 concentrations cause more CO 2 to dissolve in the oceans, which is making them more acidic . Because oxygen is less soluble in warmer water, its concentrations in the ocean are decreasing , and dead zones are expanding. Greater degrees of global warming increase the risk of passing through ' tipping points '—thresholds beyond which certain major impacts can no longer be avoided even if temperatures return to their previous state. For instance,

2242-1116: Is 'planned' diversity or 'associated' diversity. This is a functional classification that we impose and not an intrinsic feature of life or diversity. Planned diversity includes the crops which a farmer has encouraged, planted or raised (e.g. crops, covers, symbionts, and livestock, among others), which can be contrasted with the associated diversity that arrives among the crops, uninvited (e.g. herbivores, weed species and pathogens, among others). Associated biodiversity can be damaging or beneficial. The beneficial associated biodiversity include for instance wild pollinators such as wild bees and syrphid flies that pollinate crops and natural enemies and antagonists to pests and pathogens. Beneficial associated biodiversity occurs abundantly in crop fields and provide multiple ecosystem services such as pest control, nutrient cycling and pollination that support crop production. Climate change Present-day climate change includes both global warming —the ongoing increase in global average temperature —and its wider effects on Earth's climate . Climate change in

2360-539: Is a short film that combines social justice, land conservation, human history, and scientific knowledge to tell the story of four partnerships between Native Americans and land conservation organizations. The Open Space Council is building a constituency for land conservation by engaging Bay Area park users in ways to get involved. The program Outdoor Voice is regional throughout all ten Bay Area counties, focusing on action, targeting Bay Area park users, and leveraging social media. Biodiversity Biodiversity

2478-564: Is an estimated total sea level rise of 2.3 metres per degree Celsius (4.2 ft/°F) after 2000 years. Oceanic CO 2 uptake is slow enough that ocean acidification will also continue for hundreds to thousands of years. Deep oceans (below 2,000 metres (6,600 ft)) are also already committed to losing over 10% of their dissolved oxygen by the warming which occurred to date. Further, the West Antarctic ice sheet appears committed to practically irreversible melting, which would increase

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2596-405: Is an increase in biodiversity from the poles to the tropics . Thus localities at lower latitudes have more species than localities at higher latitudes . This is often referred to as the latitudinal gradient in species diversity. Several ecological factors may contribute to the gradient, but the ultimate factor behind many of them is the greater mean temperature at the equator compared to that at

2714-711: Is determined by modelling the carbon cycle and climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases. According to UNEP , global warming can be kept below 1.5 °C with a 50% chance if emissions after 2023 do not exceed 200 gigatonnes of CO 2 . This corresponds to around 4 years of current emissions. To stay under 2.0 °C, the carbon budget is 900 gigatonnes of CO 2 , or 16 years of current emissions. The climate system experiences various cycles on its own which can last for years, decades or even centuries. For example, El Niño events cause short-term spikes in surface temperature while La Niña events cause short term cooling. Their relative frequency can affect global temperature trends on

2832-491: Is estimated at 5.0 x 10 and weighs 50 billion tonnes . In comparison, the total mass of the biosphere has been estimated to be as much as four trillion tons of carbon . In July 2016, scientists reported identifying a set of 355 genes from the last universal common ancestor (LUCA) of all organisms living on Earth. The age of Earth is about 4.54 billion years. The earliest undisputed evidence of life dates at least from 3.7 billion years ago, during

2950-402: Is greater now than at any time in human history, with extinctions occurring at rates hundreds of times higher than background extinction rates. and expected to still grow in the upcoming years. As of 2012, some studies suggest that 25% of all mammal species could be extinct in 20 years. In absolute terms, the planet has lost 58% of its biodiversity since 1970 according to a 2016 study by

3068-399: Is independent of where greenhouse gases are emitted, because the gases persist long enough to diffuse across the planet. Since the pre-industrial period, the average surface temperature over land regions has increased almost twice as fast as the global average surface temperature. This is because oceans lose more heat by evaporation and oceans can store a lot of heat . The thermal energy in

3186-427: Is local biodiversity, which directly impacts daily life, affecting the availability of fresh water, food choices, and fuel sources for humans. Regional biodiversity includes habitats and ecosystems that synergizes and either overlaps or differs on a regional scale. National biodiversity within a country determines the ability for a country to thrive according to its habitats and ecosystems on a national scale. Also, within

3304-458: Is no concrete definition for biodiversity, as its definition continues to be defined. Other definitions include (in chronological order): According to estimates by Mora et al. (2011), there are approximately 8.7 million terrestrial species and 2.2 million oceanic species. The authors note that these estimates are strongest for eukaryotic organisms and likely represent the lower bound of prokaryote diversity. Other estimates include: Since

3422-401: Is possible to build fractal hyper volumes, whose fractal dimension rises to three moving towards the equator . A biodiversity hotspot is a region with a high level of endemic species that have experienced great habitat loss . The term hotspot was introduced in 1988 by Norman Myers . While hotspots are spread all over the world, the majority are forest areas and most are located in

3540-450: Is primarily attributed to sulfate aerosols produced by the combustion of fossil fuels with heavy sulfur concentrations like coal and bunker fuel . Smaller contributions come from black carbon (from combustion of fossil fuels and biomass), and from dust. Globally, aerosols have been declining since 1990 due to pollution controls, meaning that they no longer mask greenhouse gas warming as much. Aerosols also have indirect effects on

3658-444: Is radiating into space. Warming reduces average snow cover and forces the retreat of glaciers . At the same time, warming also causes greater evaporation from the oceans , leading to more atmospheric humidity , more and heavier precipitation . Plants are flowering earlier in spring, and thousands of animal species have been permanently moving to cooler areas. Different regions of the world warm at different rates . The pattern

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3776-516: Is shaped by feedbacks, which either amplify or dampen the change. Self-reinforcing or positive feedbacks increase the response, while balancing or negative feedbacks reduce it. The main reinforcing feedbacks are the water-vapour feedback , the ice–albedo feedback , and the net effect of clouds. The primary balancing mechanism is radiative cooling , as Earth's surface gives off more heat to space in response to rising temperature. In addition to temperature feedbacks, there are feedbacks in

3894-561: Is so full, that that district produces the most variety which is the most examined." Biodiversity is the result of 3.5 billion years of evolution . The origin of life has not been established by science, however, some evidence suggests that life may already have been well-established only a few hundred million years after the formation of the Earth . Until approximately 2.5 billion years ago, all life consisted of microorganisms – archaea , bacteria , and single-celled protozoans and protists . Biodiversity grew fast during

4012-407: Is the major reason why different climate models project different magnitudes of warming for a given amount of emissions. A climate model is a representation of the physical, chemical and biological processes that affect the climate system. Models include natural processes like changes in the Earth's orbit, historical changes in the Sun's activity, and volcanic forcing. Models are used to estimate

4130-479: Is the variability of life on Earth . It can be measured on various levels. There is for example genetic variability , species diversity , ecosystem diversity and phylogenetic diversity. Diversity is not distributed evenly on Earth . It is greater in the tropics as a result of the warm climate and high primary productivity in the region near the equator . Tropical forest ecosystems cover less than one-fifth of Earth's terrestrial area and contain about 50% of

4248-405: Is uncertainty as to how strongly the fossil record is biased by the greater availability and preservation of recent geologic sections. Some scientists believe that corrected for sampling artifacts, modern biodiversity may not be much different from biodiversity 300 million years ago, whereas others consider the fossil record reasonably reflective of the diversification of life. Estimates of

4366-417: Is unclear. A related phenomenon driven by climate change is woody plant encroachment , affecting up to 500 million hectares globally. Climate change has contributed to the expansion of drier climate zones, such as the expansion of deserts in the subtropics . The size and speed of global warming is making abrupt changes in ecosystems more likely. Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in

4484-511: The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and irreversible damage to key ecosystems like the Amazon rainforest and coral reefs can unfold in a matter of decades. The long-term effects of climate change on oceans include further ice melt, ocean warming , sea level rise, ocean acidification and ocean deoxygenation. The timescale of long-term impacts are centuries to millennia due to CO 2 's long atmospheric lifetime. The result

4602-513: The Carboniferous , rainforest collapse may have led to a great loss of plant and animal life. The Permian–Triassic extinction event , 251 million years ago, was the worst; vertebrate recovery took 30 million years. Human activities have led to an ongoing biodiversity loss and an accompanying loss of genetic diversity . This process is often referred to as Holocene extinction , or sixth mass extinction . For example, it

4720-661: The Earth's energy budget . Sulfate aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei and lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets. They also reduce the growth of raindrops , which makes clouds more reflective to incoming sunlight. Indirect effects of aerosols are the largest uncertainty in radiative forcing . While aerosols typically limit global warming by reflecting sunlight, black carbon in soot that falls on snow or ice can contribute to global warming. Not only does this increase

4838-792: The Eoarchean era after a geological crust started to solidify following the earlier molten Hadean eon. There are microbial mat fossils found in 3.48 billion-year-old sandstone discovered in Western Australia . Other early physical evidence of a biogenic substance is graphite in 3.7 billion-year-old meta-sedimentary rocks discovered in Western Greenland .. More recently, in 2015, "remains of biotic life " were found in 4.1 billion-year-old rocks in Western Australia . According to one of

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4956-573: The Greenland ice sheet is already melting, but if global warming reaches levels between 1.7 °C and 2.3 °C, its melting will continue until it fully disappears. If the warming is later reduced to 1.5 °C or less, it will still lose a lot more ice than if the warming was never allowed to reach the threshold in the first place. While the ice sheets would melt over millennia, other tipping points would occur faster and give societies less time to respond. The collapse of major ocean currents like

5074-840: The Greenland ice sheet . Under the 2015 Paris Agreement , nations collectively agreed to keep warming "well under 2 °C". However, with pledges made under the Agreement, global warming would still reach about 2.8 °C (5.0 °F) by the end of the century. Limiting warming to 1.5 °C would require halving emissions by 2030 and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. Fossil fuel use can be phased out by conserving energy and switching to energy sources that do not produce significant carbon pollution. These energy sources include wind , solar , hydro , and nuclear power . Cleanly generated electricity can replace fossil fuels for powering transportation , heating buildings , and running industrial processes. Carbon can also be removed from

5192-635: The Industrial Revolution , naturally-occurring amounts of greenhouse gases caused the air near the surface to be about 33 °C warmer than it would have been in their absence. Human activity since the Industrial Revolution, mainly extracting and burning fossil fuels ( coal , oil , and natural gas ), has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In 2022, the concentrations of CO 2 and methane had increased by about 50% and 164%, respectively, since 1750. These CO 2 levels are higher than they have been at any time during

5310-713: The Phanerozoic (the last 540 million years), especially during the so-called Cambrian explosion —a period during which nearly every phylum of multicellular organisms first appeared. However, recent studies suggest that this diversification had started earlier, at least in the Ediacaran , and that it continued in the Ordovician . Over the next 400 million years or so, invertebrate diversity showed little overall trend and vertebrate diversity shows an overall exponential trend. This dramatic rise in diversity

5428-461: The Stone Age , species loss has accelerated above the average basal rate, driven by human activity. Estimates of species losses are at a rate 100–10,000 times as fast as is typical in the fossil record. Loss of biodiversity results in the loss of natural capital that supplies ecosystem goods and services . Species today are being wiped out at a rate 100 to 1,000 times higher than baseline, and

5546-518: The World Economic Forum , 14.5 million more deaths are expected due to climate change by 2050. 30% of the global population currently live in areas where extreme heat and humidity are already associated with excess deaths. By 2100, 50% to 75% of the global population would live in such areas. While total crop yields have been increasing in the past 50 years due to agricultural improvements, climate change has already decreased

5664-414: The carbon cycle . While plants on land and in the ocean absorb most excess emissions of CO 2 every year, that CO 2 is returned to the atmosphere when biological matter is digested, burns, or decays. Land-surface carbon sink processes, such as carbon fixation in the soil and photosynthesis, remove about 29% of annual global CO 2 emissions. The ocean has absorbed 20 to 30% of emitted CO 2 over

5782-402: The climate system . Solar irradiance has been measured directly by satellites , and indirect measurements are available from the early 1600s onwards. Since 1880, there has been no upward trend in the amount of the Sun's energy reaching the Earth, in contrast to the warming of the lower atmosphere (the troposphere ). The upper atmosphere (the stratosphere ) would also be warming if the Sun

5900-971: The extinction of many species. The oceans have heated more slowly than the land, but plants and animals in the ocean have migrated towards the colder poles faster than species on land. Just as on land, heat waves in the ocean occur more frequently due to climate change, harming a wide range of organisms such as corals, kelp , and seabirds . Ocean acidification makes it harder for marine calcifying organisms such as mussels , barnacles and corals to produce shells and skeletons ; and heatwaves have bleached coral reefs . Harmful algal blooms enhanced by climate change and eutrophication lower oxygen levels, disrupt food webs and cause great loss of marine life. Coastal ecosystems are under particular stress. Almost half of global wetlands have disappeared due to climate change and other human impacts. Plants have come under increased stress from damage by insects. The effects of climate change are impacting humans everywhere in

6018-432: The socioeconomic scenario and the mitigation scenario, models produce atmospheric CO 2 concentrations that range widely between 380 and 1400 ppm. The environmental effects of climate change are broad and far-reaching, affecting oceans , ice, and weather. Changes may occur gradually or rapidly. Evidence for these effects comes from studying climate change in the past, from modelling, and from modern observations. Since

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6136-504: The tropics . Brazil 's Atlantic Forest is considered one such hotspot, containing roughly 20,000 plant species, 1,350 vertebrates and millions of insects, about half of which occur nowhere else. The island of Madagascar and India are also particularly notable. Colombia is characterized by high biodiversity, with the highest rate of species by area unit worldwide and it has the largest number of endemics (species that are not found naturally anywhere else) of any country. About 10% of

6254-417: The world population growth arises from a second-order positive feedback between the population size and the rate of technological growth. The hyperbolic character of biodiversity growth can be similarly accounted for by a feedback between diversity and community structure complexity. The similarity between the curves of biodiversity and human population probably comes from the fact that both are derived from

6372-405: The 18th century and 1970 there was little net warming, as the warming impact of greenhouse gas emissions was offset by cooling from sulfur dioxide emissions. Sulfur dioxide causes acid rain , but it also produces sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere, which reflect sunlight and cause global dimming . After 1970, the increasing accumulation of greenhouse gases and controls on sulfur pollution led to

6490-612: The 1950s, droughts and heat waves have appeared simultaneously with increasing frequency. Extremely wet or dry events within the monsoon period have increased in India and East Asia. Monsoonal precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere has increased since 1980. The rainfall rate and intensity of hurricanes and typhoons is likely increasing , and the geographic range likely expanding poleward in response to climate warming. Frequency of tropical cyclones has not increased as

6608-500: The 1980s, the terms global warming and climate change became more common, often being used interchangeably. Scientifically, global warming refers only to increased surface warming, while climate change describes both global warming and its effects on Earth's climate system , such as precipitation changes. Climate change can also be used more broadly to include changes to the climate that have happened throughout Earth's history. Global warming —used as early as 1975 —became

6726-440: The Arctic is forcing many species to relocate or become extinct . Even if efforts to minimize future warming are successful, some effects will continue for centuries. These include ocean heating , ocean acidification and sea level rise . Climate change threatens people with increased flooding , extreme heat, increased food and water scarcity, more disease, and economic loss . Human migration and conflict can also be

6844-435: The Arctic is another major feedback, this reduces the reflectivity of the Earth's surface in the region and accelerates Arctic warming . This additional warming also contributes to permafrost thawing, which releases methane and CO 2 into the atmosphere. Around half of human-caused CO 2 emissions have been absorbed by land plants and by the oceans. This fraction is not static and if future CO 2 emissions decrease,

6962-706: The Bay Area. The Council collaborated with Greeninfo Network to develop a GIS database of protected areas in the nine county San Francisco Bay Area called the Bay Area Protected Lands Database (BPAD). In 2010, Santa Cruz County was included for the first time, adding a tenth county to the nine Bay Area counties. The film Here and Now], produced by the Open Space Council with help from the Christensen Fund, Midpeninsula Regional Open Space District , and The Trust for Public Land ,

7080-545: The CO 2 released by the chemical reactions for making cement , steel , aluminum , and fertilizer . Methane emissions come from livestock , manure, rice cultivation , landfills, wastewater, and coal mining , as well as oil and gas extraction . Nitrous oxide emissions largely come from the microbial decomposition of fertilizer . While methane only lasts in the atmosphere for an average of 12 years, CO 2 lasts much longer. The Earth's surface absorbs CO 2 as part of

7198-604: The Earth will be able to absorb up to around 70%. If they increase substantially, it'll still absorb more carbon than now, but the overall fraction will decrease to below 40%. This is because climate change increases droughts and heat waves that eventually inhibit plant growth on land, and soils will release more carbon from dead plants when they are warmer . The rate at which oceans absorb atmospheric carbon will be lowered as they become more acidic and experience changes in thermohaline circulation and phytoplankton distribution. Uncertainty over feedbacks, particularly cloud cover,

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7316-606: The IUCN's critically endangered . Numerous scientists and the IPBES Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services assert that human population growth and overconsumption are the primary factors in this decline. However, other scientists have criticized this finding and say that loss of habitat caused by "the growth of commodities for export" is the main driver. Some studies have however pointed out that habitat destruction for

7434-582: The World Wildlife Fund. The Living Planet Report 2014 claims that "the number of mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, and fish across the globe is, on average, about half the size it was 40 years ago". Of that number, 39% accounts for the terrestrial wildlife gone, 39% for the marine wildlife gone and 76% for the freshwater wildlife gone. Biodiversity took the biggest hit in Latin America , plummeting 83 percent. High-income countries showed

7552-441: The absorption of sunlight, it also increases melting and sea-level rise. Limiting new black carbon deposits in the Arctic could reduce global warming by 0.2 °C by 2050. The effect of decreasing sulfur content of fuel oil for ships since 2020 is estimated to cause an additional 0.05 °C increase in global mean temperature by 2050. As the Sun is the Earth's primary energy source, changes in incoming sunlight directly affect

7670-411: The atmosphere , for instance by increasing forest cover and farming with methods that capture carbon in soil . Before the 1980s it was unclear whether the warming effect of increased greenhouse gases was stronger than the cooling effect of airborne particulates in air pollution . Scientists used the term inadvertent climate modification to refer to human impacts on the climate at this time. In

7788-452: The atmosphere. volcanic CO 2 emissions are more persistent, but they are equivalent to less than 1% of current human-caused CO 2 emissions. Volcanic activity still represents the single largest natural impact (forcing) on temperature in the industrial era. Yet, like the other natural forcings, it has had negligible impacts on global temperature trends since the Industrial Revolution. The climate system's response to an initial forcing

7906-461: The available eco-space is filled." It also appears that the diversity continues to increase over time, especially after mass extinctions. On the other hand, changes through the Phanerozoic correlate much better with the hyperbolic model (widely used in population biology , demography and macrosociology , as well as fossil biodiversity) than with exponential and logistic models. The latter models imply that changes in diversity are guided by

8024-454: The biggest threats to global health in the 21st century. Scientists have warned about the irreversible harms it poses. Extreme weather events affect public health, and food and water security . Temperature extremes lead to increased illness and death. Climate change increases the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. It can affect transmission of infectious diseases , such as dengue fever and malaria . According to

8142-553: The biomass of insect life in Germany had declined by three-quarters in the last 25 years. Dave Goulson of Sussex University stated that their study suggested that humans "appear to be making vast tracts of land inhospitable to most forms of life, and are currently on course for ecological Armageddon. If we lose the insects then everything is going to collapse." In 2020 the World Wildlife Foundation published

8260-540: The carbon cycle, such as the fertilizing effect of CO 2 on plant growth. Feedbacks are expected to trend in a positive direction as greenhouse gas emissions continue, raising climate sensitivity. These feedback processes alter the pace of global warming. For instance, warmer air can hold more moisture in the form of water vapour , which is itself a potent greenhouse gas. Warmer air can also make clouds higher and thinner, and therefore more insulating, increasing climate warming. The reduction of snow cover and sea ice in

8378-551: The climate cycled through ice ages . One of the hotter periods was the Last Interglacial , around 125,000 years ago, where temperatures were between 0.5 °C and 1.5 °C warmer than before the start of global warming. This period saw sea levels 5 to 10 metres higher than today. The most recent glacial maximum 20,000 years ago was some 5–7 °C colder. This period has sea levels that were over 125 metres (410 ft) lower than today. Temperatures stabilized in

8496-540: The current sixth mass extinction match or exceed rates of loss in the five previous mass extinction events in the fossil record . Biodiversity loss is in fact "one of the most critical manifestations of the Anthropocene " (since around the 1950s); the continued decline of biodiversity constitutes "an unprecedented threat" to the continued existence of human civilization. The reduction is caused primarily by human impacts , particularly habitat destruction . Since

8614-684: The current interglacial period beginning 11,700 years ago . This period also saw the start of agriculture. Historical patterns of warming and cooling, like the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age , did not occur at the same time across different regions. Temperatures may have reached as high as those of the late 20th century in a limited set of regions. Climate information for that period comes from climate proxies , such as trees and ice cores . Around 1850 thermometer records began to provide global coverage. Between

8732-403: The degree of warming future emissions will cause when accounting for the strength of climate feedbacks . Models also predict the circulation of the oceans, the annual cycle of the seasons, and the flows of carbon between the land surface and the atmosphere. The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate current or past climates. Past models have underestimated

8850-427: The destroyed trees release CO 2 , and are not replaced by new trees, removing that carbon sink . Between 2001 and 2018, 27% of deforestation was from permanent clearing to enable agricultural expansion for crops and livestock. Another 24% has been lost to temporary clearing under the shifting cultivation agricultural systems. 26% was due to logging for wood and derived products, and wildfires have accounted for

8968-401: The distribution of heat and precipitation around the globe. The World Meteorological Organization estimates there is an 80% chance that global temperatures will exceed 1.5 °C warming for at least one year between 2024 and 2028. The chance of the 5-year average being above 1.5 °C is almost half. The IPCC expects the 20-year average global temperature to exceed +1.5 °C in

9086-444: The dominant direct influence on temperature from land use change. Thus, land use change to date is estimated to have a slight cooling effect. Air pollution, in the form of aerosols, affects the climate on a large scale. Aerosols scatter and absorb solar radiation. From 1961 to 1990, a gradual reduction in the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface was observed. This phenomenon is popularly known as global dimming , and

9204-610: The early 2030s. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (2021) included projections that by 2100 global warming is very likely to reach 1.0–1.8 °C under a scenario with very low emissions of greenhouse gases , 2.1–3.5 °C under an intermediate emissions scenario , or 3.3–5.7 °C under a very high emissions scenario . The warming will continue past 2100 in the intermediate and high emission scenarios, with future projections of global surface temperatures by year 2300 being similar to millions of years ago. The remaining carbon budget for staying beneath certain temperature increases

9322-512: The end of the Maastrichtian , just before that extinction event. However, many other taxa were affected by this crisis, which affected even marine taxa, such as ammonites , which also became extinct around that time. The biodiversity of the past is called Paleobiodiversity. The fossil record suggests that the last few million years featured the greatest biodiversity in history . However, not all scientists support this view, since there

9440-481: The end of the last ice age partly resulted from overhunting. Biologists most often define biodiversity as the "totality of genes , species and ecosystems of a region". An advantage of this definition is that it presents a unified view of the traditional types of biological variety previously identified: Biodiversity is most commonly used to replace the more clearly-defined and long-established terms, species diversity and species richness . However, there

9558-430: The entire atmosphere—is ruled out because only the lower atmosphere has warmed. Atmospheric aerosols produce a smaller, cooling effect. Other drivers, such as changes in albedo , are less impactful. Greenhouse gases are transparent to sunlight , and thus allow it to pass through the atmosphere to heat the Earth's surface. The Earth radiates it as heat , and greenhouse gases absorb a portion of it. This absorption slows

9676-451: The estimated global value of ecosystem services (not captured in traditional markets) at an average of $ 33 trillion annually. With regards to provisioning services, greater species diversity has the following benefits: With regards to regulating services, greater species diversity has the following benefits: Greater species diversity Agricultural diversity can be divided into two categories: intraspecific diversity , which includes

9794-428: The expansion of agriculture and the overexploitation of wildlife are the more significant drivers of contemporary biodiversity loss, not climate change . Biodiversity is not evenly distributed, rather it varies greatly across the globe as well as within regions and seasons. Among other factors, the diversity of all living things ( biota ) depends on temperature , precipitation , altitude , soils , geography and

9912-491: The genetic variation within a single species, like the potato ( Solanum tuberosum ) that is composed of many different forms and types (e.g. in the U.S. they might compare russet potatoes with new potatoes or purple potatoes, all different, but all part of the same species, S. tuberosum ). The other category of agricultural diversity is called interspecific diversity and refers to the number and types of different species. Agricultural diversity can also be divided by whether it

10030-604: The global climate system has grown with only brief pauses since at least 1970, and over 90% of this extra energy has been stored in the ocean . The rest has heated the atmosphere , melted ice, and warmed the continents. The Northern Hemisphere and the North Pole have warmed much faster than the South Pole and Southern Hemisphere . The Northern Hemisphere not only has much more land, but also more seasonal snow cover and sea ice . As these surfaces flip from reflecting

10148-596: The interactions between other species. The study of the spatial distribution of organisms , species and ecosystems , is the science of biogeography . Diversity consistently measures higher in the tropics and in other localized regions such as the Cape Floristic Region and lower in polar regions generally. Rain forests that have had wet climates for a long time, such as Yasuní National Park in Ecuador , have particularly high biodiversity. There

10266-737: The interference of the hyperbolic trend with cyclical and stochastic dynamics. Most biologists agree however that the period since human emergence is part of a new mass extinction, named the Holocene extinction event , caused primarily by the impact humans are having on the environment. It has been argued that the present rate of extinction is sufficient to eliminate most species on the planet Earth within 100 years. New species are regularly discovered (on average between 5–10,000 new species each year, most of them insects ) and many, though discovered, are not yet classified (estimates are that nearly 90% of all arthropods are not yet classified). Most of

10384-572: The last 14 million years. Concentrations of methane are far higher than they were over the last 800,000 years. Global human-caused greenhouse gas emissions in 2019 were equivalent to 59 billion tonnes of CO 2 . Of these emissions, 75% was CO 2 , 18% was methane , 4% was nitrous oxide, and 2% was fluorinated gases . CO 2 emissions primarily come from burning fossil fuels to provide energy for transport , manufacturing, heating , and electricity. Additional CO 2 emissions come from deforestation and industrial processes , which include

10502-436: The last two decades. CO 2 is only removed from the atmosphere for the long term when it is stored in the Earth's crust, which is a process that can take millions of years to complete. Around 30% of Earth's land area is largely unusable for humans ( glaciers , deserts , etc.), 26% is forests , 10% is shrubland and 34% is agricultural land . Deforestation is the main land use change contributor to global warming, as

10620-441: The last: internal climate variability processes can make any year 0.2 °C warmer or colder than the average. From 1998 to 2013, negative phases of two such processes, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) caused a short slower period of warming called the " global warming hiatus ". After the "hiatus", the opposite occurred, with years like 2023 exhibiting temperatures well above even

10738-608: The lower atmosphere. Carbon dioxide , the primary greenhouse gas driving global warming, has grown by about 50% and is at levels not seen for millions of years. Climate change has an increasingly large impact on the environment . Deserts are expanding , while heat waves and wildfires are becoming more common. Amplified warming in the Arctic has contributed to thawing permafrost , retreat of glaciers and sea ice decline . Higher temperatures are also causing more intense storms , droughts, and other weather extremes . Rapid environmental change in mountains , coral reefs , and

10856-877: The montane forests of Africa, South America and Southeast Asia and lowland forests of Australia, coastal Brazil, the Caribbean islands, Central America and insular Southeast Asia have many species with small geographical distributions. Areas with dense human populations and intense agricultural land use, such as Europe , parts of Bangladesh, China, India and North America, are less intact in terms of their biodiversity. Northern Africa, southern Australia, coastal Brazil, Madagascar and South Africa, are also identified as areas with striking losses in biodiversity intactness. European forests in EU and non-EU nations comprise more than 30% of Europe's land mass (around 227 million hectares), representing an almost 10% growth since 1990. Generally, there

10974-413: The more popular term after NASA climate scientist James Hansen used it in his 1988 testimony in the U.S. Senate . Since the 2000s, climate change has increased usage. Various scientists, politicians and media may use the terms climate crisis or climate emergency to talk about climate change, and may use the term global heating instead of global warming . Over the last few million years

11092-571: The natural infrastructure of the region. The Conservation Land Network studied over 4.3 million acres (17,000 km) and over 1,000 variables, such as redwood forests and California red legged frog habitats. Along with the Subtidal Habitat Goals Project and the Baylands Ecosystem Goals Project , this project is part of a science-based, regional approach to protecting biodiversity of

11210-468: The planet's species went extinct prior to the evolution of humans. Estimates on the number of Earth's current species range from 10 million to 14 million, of which about 1.2 million have been documented and over 86% have not yet been described. However, a May 2016 scientific report estimates that 1 trillion species are currently on Earth, with only one-thousandth of one percent described. The total amount of related DNA base pairs on Earth

11328-546: The poles. Even though terrestrial biodiversity declines from the equator to the poles, some studies claim that this characteristic is unverified in aquatic ecosystems , especially in marine ecosystems . The latitudinal distribution of parasites does not appear to follow this rule. Also, in terrestrial ecosystems the soil bacterial diversity has been shown to be highest in temperate climatic zones, and has been attributed to carbon inputs and habitat connectivity. In 2016, an alternative hypothesis ("the fractal biodiversity")

11446-412: The present global macroscopic species diversity vary from 2 million to 100 million, with a best estimate of somewhere near 9 million, the vast majority arthropods . Diversity appears to increase continually in the absence of natural selection. The existence of a global carrying capacity , limiting the amount of life that can live at once, is debated, as is the question of whether such

11564-619: The rate at which heat escapes into space, trapping heat near the Earth's surface and warming it over time. While water vapour (≈50%) and clouds (≈25%) are the biggest contributors to the greenhouse effect, they primarily change as a function of temperature and are therefore mostly considered to be feedbacks that change climate sensitivity . On the other hand, concentrations of gases such as CO 2 (≈20%), tropospheric ozone , CFCs and nitrous oxide are added or removed independently from temperature, and are therefore considered to be external forcings that change global temperatures. Before

11682-522: The rate of Arctic shrinkage and underestimated the rate of precipitation increase. Sea level rise since 1990 was underestimated in older models, but more recent models agree well with observations. The 2017 United States-published National Climate Assessment notes that "climate models may still be underestimating or missing relevant feedback processes". Additionally, climate models may be unable to adequately predict short-term regional climatic shifts. A subset of climate models add societal factors to

11800-729: The rate of extinction has increased, many extant species may become extinct before they are described. Not surprisingly, in the animalia the most studied groups are birds and mammals , whereas fishes and arthropods are the least studied animals groups. During the last century, decreases in biodiversity have been increasingly observed. It was estimated in 2007 that up to 30% of all species will be extinct by 2050. Of these, about one eighth of known plant species are threatened with extinction . Estimates reach as high as 140,000 species per year (based on Species-area theory ). This figure indicates unsustainable ecological practices, because few species emerge each year. The rate of species loss

11918-584: The rate of extinctions is increasing. This process destroys the resilience and adaptability of life on Earth. In 2006, many species were formally classified as rare or endangered or threatened ; moreover, scientists have estimated that millions more species are at risk which have not been formally recognized. About 40 percent of the 40,177 species assessed using the IUCN Red List criteria are now listed as threatened with extinction —a total of 16,119. As of late 2022 9251 species were considered part of

12036-622: The rate of yield growth . Fisheries have been negatively affected in multiple regions. While agricultural productivity has been positively affected in some high latitude areas, mid- and low-latitude areas have been negatively affected. According to the World Economic Forum, an increase in drought in certain regions could cause 3.2 million deaths from malnutrition by 2050 and stunting in children. With 2 °C warming, global livestock headcounts could decline by 7–10% by 2050, as less animal feed will be available. If

12154-405: The recent average. This is why the temperature change is defined in terms of a 20-year average, which reduces the noise of hot and cold years and decadal climate patterns, and detects the long-term signal. A wide range of other observations reinforce the evidence of warming. The upper atmosphere is cooling, because greenhouse gases are trapping heat near the Earth's surface, and so less heat

12272-411: The release of chemical compounds that influence clouds, and by changing wind patterns. In tropic and temperate areas the net effect is to produce significant warming, and forest restoration can make local temperatures cooler. At latitudes closer to the poles, there is a cooling effect as forest is replaced by snow-covered (and more reflective) plains. Globally, these increases in surface albedo have been

12390-476: The remaining 23%. Some forests have not been fully cleared, but were already degraded by these impacts. Restoring these forests also recovers their potential as a carbon sink. Local vegetation cover impacts how much of the sunlight gets reflected back into space ( albedo ), and how much heat is lost by evaporation . For instance, the change from a dark forest to grassland makes the surface lighter, causing it to reflect more sunlight. Deforestation can also modify

12508-913: The researchers, "If life arose relatively quickly on Earth...then it could be common in the universe ." There have been many claims about biodiversity's effect on the ecosystem services , especially provisioning and regulating services . Some of those claims have been validated, some are incorrect and some lack enough evidence to draw definitive conclusions. Ecosystem services have been grouped in three types: Experiments with controlled environments have shown that humans cannot easily build ecosystems to support human needs; for example insect pollination cannot be mimicked, though there have been attempts to create artificial pollinators using unmanned aerial vehicles . The economic activity of pollination alone represented between $ 2.1–14.6 billion in 2003. Other sources have reported somewhat conflicting results and in 1997 Robert Costanza and his colleagues reported

12626-583: The sea levels by at least 3.3 m (10 ft 10 in) over approximately 2000 years. Recent warming has driven many terrestrial and freshwater species poleward and towards higher altitudes . For instance, the range of hundreds of North American birds has shifted northward at an average rate of 1.5 km/year over the past 55 years. Higher atmospheric CO 2 levels and an extended growing season have resulted in global greening. However, heatwaves and drought have reduced ecosystem productivity in some regions. The future balance of these opposing effects

12744-693: The species of the Earth can be found in Colombia, including over 1,900 species of bird, more than in Europe and North America combined, Colombia has 10% of the world's mammals species, 14% of the amphibian species and 18% of the bird species of the world. Madagascar dry deciduous forests and lowland rainforests possess a high ratio of endemism . Since the island separated from mainland Africa 66 million years ago, many species and ecosystems have evolved independently. Indonesia 's 17,000 islands cover 735,355 square miles (1,904,560 km ) and contain 10% of

12862-419: The terrestrial diversity is found in tropical forests and in general, the land has more species than the ocean; some 8.7 million species may exist on Earth, of which some 2.1 million live in the ocean. It is estimated that 5 to 50 billion species have existed on the planet. Assuming that there may be a maximum of about 50 million species currently alive, it stands to reason that greater than 99% of

12980-773: The way in which we interact with and use the world's forests. A new method used in 2011, put the total number of species on Earth at 8.7 million, of which 2.1 million were estimated to live in the ocean. However, this estimate seems to under-represent the diversity of microorganisms. Forests provide habitats for 80 percent of amphibian species , 75 percent of bird species and 68 percent of mammal species. About 60 percent of all vascular plants are found in tropical forests. Mangroves provide breeding grounds and nurseries for numerous species of fish and shellfish and help trap sediments that might otherwise adversely affect seagrass beds and coral reefs, which are habitats for many more marine species. Forests span around 4 billion acres (nearly

13098-630: The world's flowering plants , 12% of mammals and 17% of reptiles , amphibians and birds —along with nearly 240 million people. Many regions of high biodiversity and/or endemism arise from specialized habitats which require unusual adaptations, for example, alpine environments in high mountains , or Northern European peat bogs . Accurately measuring differences in biodiversity can be difficult. Selection bias amongst researchers may contribute to biased empirical research for modern estimates of biodiversity. In 1768, Rev. Gilbert White succinctly observed of his Selborne, Hampshire "all nature

13216-652: The world's species. There are latitudinal gradients in species diversity for both marine and terrestrial taxa. Since life began on Earth , six major mass extinctions and several minor events have led to large and sudden drops in biodiversity. The Phanerozoic aeon (the last 540 million years) marked a rapid growth in biodiversity via the Cambrian explosion . In this period, the majority of multicellular phyla first appeared. The next 400 million years included repeated, massive biodiversity losses. Those events have been classified as mass extinction events. In

13334-438: The world. Impacts can be observed on all continents and ocean regions, with low-latitude, less developed areas facing the greatest risk. Continued warming has potentially "severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts" for people and ecosystems. The risks are unevenly distributed, but are generally greater for disadvantaged people in developing and developed countries. The World Health Organization calls climate change one of

13452-507: Was estimated in 2007 that up to 30% of all species will be extinct by 2050. Destroying habitats for farming is a key reason why biodiversity is decreasing today. Climate change also plays a role. This can be seen for example in the effects of climate change on biomes . This anthropogenic extinction may have started toward the end of the Pleistocene , as some studies suggest that the megafaunal extinction event that took place around

13570-483: Was marked by periodic, massive losses of diversity classified as mass extinction events. A significant loss occurred in anamniotic limbed vertebrates when rainforests collapsed in the Carboniferous , but amniotes seem to have been little affected by this event; their diversification slowed down later, around the Asselian / Sakmarian boundary, in the early Cisuralian (Early Permian ), about 293 Ma ago. The worst

13688-401: Was proposed to explain the biodiversity latitudinal gradient. In this study, the species pool size and the fractal nature of ecosystems were combined to clarify some general patterns of this gradient. This hypothesis considers temperature , moisture , and net primary production (NPP) as the main variables of an ecosystem niche and as the axis of the ecological hypervolume . In this way, it

13806-524: Was sending more energy to Earth, but instead, it has been cooling. This is consistent with greenhouse gases preventing heat from leaving the Earth's atmosphere. Explosive volcanic eruptions can release gases, dust and ash that partially block sunlight and reduce temperatures, or they can send water vapour into the atmosphere, which adds to greenhouse gases and increases temperatures. These impacts on temperature only last for several years, because both water vapour and volcanic material have low persistence in

13924-567: Was the Permian-Triassic extinction event , 251 million years ago. Vertebrates took 30 million years to recover from this event. The most recent major mass extinction event, the Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event , occurred 66 million years ago. This period has attracted more attention than others because it resulted in the extinction of the non-avian dinosaurs , which were represented by many lineages at

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