142-615: The 1997 Asian financial crisis was a period of financial crisis that gripped much of East and Southeast Asia during the late 1990s. The crisis began in Thailand in July 1997 before spreading to several other countries with a ripple effect, raising fears of a worldwide economic meltdown due to financial contagion . However, the recovery in 1998–1999 was rapid, and worries of a meltdown quickly subsided. Originating in Thailand, where it
284-483: A buyer of the ringgit during its fall, having sold it short in 1997. At the 30th ASEAN Ministerial Meeting held in Subang Jaya , Malaysia , the foreign ministers issued a joint declaration on 25 July 1997 expressing serious concern and called for further intensification of ASEAN's cooperation to safeguard and promote ASEAN's interest in this regard. Coincidentally, on that same day, the central bankers of most of
426-513: A challenge to the epistemic norms typically assumed within financial economics and all of empirical finance. The possibility of financial crises being beyond the predictive reach of causality is discussed further within Epistemology of finance . Leverage , which means borrowing to finance investments, is frequently cited as a contributor to financial crises. When a financial institution (or an individual) only invests its own money, it can, in
568-403: A currency of at least 25% but it is also defined as at least a 10% increase in the rate of depreciation. In general, a currency crisis can be defined as a situation when the participants in an exchange market come to recognize that a pegged exchange rate is about to fail, causing speculation against the peg that hastens the failure and forces a devaluation . A speculative bubble (also called
710-419: A devaluation crisis, is normally considered as part of a financial crisis. Kaminsky et al. (1998), for instance, define currency crises as occurring when a weighted average of monthly percentage depreciations in the exchange rate and monthly percentage declines in exchange reserves exceeds its mean by more than three standard deviations. Frankel and Rose (1996) define a currency crisis as a nominal depreciation of
852-399: A few agents encourage others to buy too, not because the true value of the asset increases when many buy (which is called "strategic complementarity"), but because investors come to believe the true asset value is high when they observe others buying. In "herding" models, it is assumed that investors are fully rational, but only have partial information about the economy. In these models, when
994-445: A few investors buy some type of asset, this reveals that they have some positive information about that asset, which increases the rational incentive of others to buy the asset too. Even though this is a fully rational decision, it may sometimes lead to mistakenly high asset values (implying, eventually, a crash) since the first investors may, by chance, have been mistaken. Herding models, based on Complexity Science , indicate that it
1136-402: A financial bubble or an economic bubble) exists in the event of large, sustained overpricing of some class of assets. One factor that frequently contributes to a bubble is the presence of buyers who purchase an asset based solely on the expectation that they can later resell it at a higher price, rather than calculating the income it will generate in the future. If there is a bubble, there is also
1278-404: A financial crisis. To facilitate his analysis, Minsky defines three approaches that financing firms may choose, according to their tolerance of risk. They are hedge finance, speculative finance, and Ponzi finance. Ponzi finance leads to the most fragility. Financial fragility levels move together with the business cycle . After a recession , firms have lost much financing and choose only hedge,
1420-475: A fixed exchange rate may be stable for a long period of time, but will collapse suddenly in an avalanche of currency sales in response to a sufficient deterioration of government finances or underlying economic conditions. According to some theories, positive feedback implies that the economy can have more than one equilibrium . There may be an equilibrium in which market participants invest heavily in asset markets because they expect assets to be valuable. This
1562-579: A further decline in South Korean shares since stock markets were already bearish in November. The Seoul stock exchange fell by 4% on 7 November 1997. On 8 November, it plunged by 7%, its biggest one-day drop to that date. And on 24 November, stocks fell a further 7.2% on fears that the IMF would demand tough reforms. In 1998, Hyundai Motor Company took over Kia Motors. Samsung Motors ' $ 5 billion venture
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#17327732452011704-503: A general loss of demand and confidence throughout the region. Although most of the governments of Asia had seemingly sound fiscal policies , the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stepped in to initiate a $ 40 billion program to stabilize the currencies of South Korea, Thailand, and Indonesia, economies particularly hard hit by the crisis. However, the efforts to stem a global economic crisis did little to stabilize
1846-508: A greater devaluation? This is a relevant tradeoff, but there can be no question that the degree of devaluation in the Asian countries is excessive, both from the viewpoint of the individual countries, and from the viewpoint of the international system. Looking first to the individual country, companies with substantial foreign currency debts, as so many companies in these countries have, stood to suffer far more from… currency (depreciation) than from
1988-425: A high rate of return . As a result, the region's economies received a large inflow of money and experienced a dramatic run-up in asset prices. At the same time, the regional economies of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore and South Korea experienced high growth rates, of 8–12% GDP, in the late 1980s and early 1990s. This achievement was widely acclaimed by financial institutions including IMF and World Bank , and
2130-510: A highly leveraged economic climate, and pushed up asset prices to an unsustainable level, particularly those in non-productive sectors of the economy such as real-estate. These asset prices eventually began to collapse, causing individuals and companies to default on debt obligations. The resulting panic among lenders led to a large withdrawal of credit from the crisis countries, causing a credit crunch and further bankruptcies. In addition, as foreign investors attempted to withdraw their money,
2272-407: A large number of Indonesian corporations had been borrowing in U.S. dollars. This practice had worked well for these corporations during the preceding years, as the rupiah had strengthened respective to the dollar; their effective levels of debt and financing costs had decreased as the local currency's value rose. In July 1997, when Thailand floated the baht, Indonesia's monetary authorities widened
2414-459: A largely uncontrolled manner to certain people only – not necessarily the best suited or most efficient, but those closest to the centers of power. Weak corporate governance also led to inefficient investment and declining profitability. Until 1999, Asia attracted almost half of the total capital inflow into developing countries . The economies of Southeast Asia in particular maintained high interest rates attractive to foreign investors looking for
2556-411: A more competitive market. Examples of barriers to entry include patents , land rights , and certain zoning laws . These barriers allow firms to maintain a large portion of market share due to new entrants being unable to obtain the necessary requirements or pay the initial costs of entry. An oligopoly is a case where barriers are present, but more than one firm is able to maintain the majority of
2698-475: A profit maximizing solution. Another significant factor for profit maximization is market fractionation . A company may sell goods in several regions or in several countries. Profit is maximized by treating each location as a separate market. Rather than matching supply and demand for the entire company the matching is done within each market. Each market has different competitions, different supply constraints (like shipping) and different social factors. When
2840-469: A result of the crisis. Following the 1997 Asian financial crisis, income in the northeast, the poorest part of the country, rose by 46 percent from 1998 to 2006. Nationwide poverty fell from 21.3 to 11.3 percent. Thailand's Gini coefficient , a measure of income inequality , fell from .525 in 2000 to .499 in 2004 (it had risen from 1996 to 2000) versus 1997 Asian financial crisis. By 2001, Thailand's economy had recovered. The increasing tax revenues allowed
2982-556: A result of the crisis. In May 1997, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas , the country's central bank, raised interest rates by 1.75 percentage points and again by 2 points on 19 June. Thailand triggered the crisis on 2 July and on 3 July, the Bangko Sentral intervened to defend the peso , raising the overnight rate from 15% to 32% at the onset of the Asian crisis in mid-July 1997. The peso dropped from 26 pesos per dollar at
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#17327732452013124-701: A risk of sovereign default due to fluctuations in exchange rates. Many analyses of financial crises emphasize the role of investment mistakes caused by lack of knowledge or the imperfections of human reasoning. Behavioural finance studies errors in economic and quantitative reasoning. Psychologist Torbjorn K A Eliazon has also analyzed failures of economic reasoning in his concept of 'œcopathy'. Historians, notably Charles P. Kindleberger , have pointed out that crises often follow soon after major financial or technical innovations that present investors with new types of financial opportunities, which he called "displacements" of investors' expectations. Early examples include
3266-490: A risk of a crash in asset prices: market participants will go on buying only as long as they expect others to buy, and when many decide to sell the price will fall. However, it is difficult to predict whether an asset's price actually equals its fundamental value, so it is hard to detect bubbles reliably. Some economists insist that bubbles never or almost never occur. Well-known examples of bubbles (or purported bubbles) and crashes in stock prices and other asset prices include
3408-601: A run renders the bank insolvent, causing customers to lose their deposits, to the extent that they are not covered by deposit insurance. An event in which bank runs are widespread is called a systemic banking crisis or banking panic . Examples of bank runs include the run on the Bank of the United States in 1931 and the run on Northern Rock in 2007. Banking crises generally occur after periods of risky lending and resulting loan defaults. A currency crisis, also called
3550-478: A series of bailouts ("rescue packages") for the most-affected economies to enable them to avoid default , tying the packages to currency, banking and financial system reforms. Due to IMF's involvement in the financial crisis, the term IMF Crisis became a way to refer to the Asian Financial Crisis in countries that were affected. The IMF's support was conditional on a series of economic reforms,
3692-424: A situation where a company generates revenue that is equal to the total costs incurred in its operation, thus allowing it to remain operational in a competitive industry. It is the minimum profit level that a company can achieve to justify its continued operation in the market where there is competition. In order to determine if a company has achieved normal profit, they first have to calculate their economic profit. If
3834-428: A small profit could be made with little or no capital. However, when interest rates changed and the incentive for the flow was removed or reversed sudden changes in capital flows could occur. The subjects of investment might be starved of cash possibly becoming insolvent and creating a credit crunch and the loaning banks would be left with defaulting investors leading to a banking crisis. As Charles Read has pointed out,
3976-493: A temporary rise in domestic interest rates…. Thus, on macroeconomics… monetary policy has to be kept tight to restore confidence in the currency.... From the then IMF managing director Michel Camdessus : To reverse (currency depreciation), countries have to make it more attractive to hold domestic currency, and that means temporarily raising interest rates, even if this (hurts) weak banks and corporations. From 1985 to 1996, Thailand's economy grew at an average of over 9% per year,
4118-399: Is an example for negative externality. Consumer surplus is an economic indicator which measures consumer benefits. The price that consumers pay for a product is not greater than the price they desire to pay, and in this case there will be consumer surplus. For the supply side of economics, the general school of thought is that profit is meant to ensure shareholder yield . While it is
4260-613: Is based on the work of Thomas Tooke , Thomas Attwood , Henry Thornton , William Jevons and a number of bankers opposed to the Bank Charter Act 1844 . Starting at a time when short-term interest rates are low, frustration builds up among investors who search for a better yield in countries and locations with higher rates, leading to increased capital flows to countries with higher rates. Internally, short-term rates rise above long-term rates causing failures where borrowing at short term rates has been used to invest long-term where
4402-459: Is called a currency crisis or balance of payments crisis . When a country fails to pay back its sovereign debt , this is called a sovereign default . While devaluation and default could both be voluntary decisions of the government, they are often perceived to be the involuntary results of a change in investor sentiment that leads to a sudden stop in capital inflows or a sudden increase in capital flight . Several currencies that formed part of
1997 Asian financial crisis - Misplaced Pages Continue
4544-528: Is called a recession . An especially prolonged or severe recession may be called a depression , while a long period of slow but not necessarily negative growth is sometimes called economic stagnation . Some economists argue that many recessions have been caused in large part by financial crises. One important example is the Great Depression , which was preceded in many countries by bank runs and stock market crashes. The subprime mortgage crisis and
4686-540: Is defined as the difference in total revenue and total cost, a firm achieves its maximum profit by operating at the point where the difference between the two is at its greatest. The goal of maximizing profit is also what leads firms to enter markets where economic profit exists, with the main focus being to maximize production without significantly increasing its marginal cost per good. In markets which do not show interdependence , this point can either be found by looking at these two curves directly, or by finding and selecting
4828-399: Is held to be contestable . Normally, a firm that introduces a differentiated product can initially secure temporary market power for a short while (See Monopoly Profit § Persistence ). At this stage, the initial price the consumer must pay for the product is high, and the demand for, as well as the availability of the product in the market , will be limited. In the long run however, when
4970-419: Is less than its price. This allows the firm to set a price which is higher than that which would be found in a similar but more competitive industry, allowing the firms to maintain an economic profit in both the short and long run. The existence of economic profits depends on the prevalence of barriers to entry , which stop other firms from entering into the industry and sapping away profits like they would in
5112-426: Is little consensus and financial crises continue to occur from time to time. It is apparent however that a consistent feature of both economic (and other applied finance disciplines) is the obvious inability to predict and avert financial crises. This realization raises the question as to what is known and also capable of being known (i.e. the epistemology ) within economics and applied finance. It has been argued that
5254-429: Is making sure institutions have sufficient assets to meet their contractual obligations, through reserve requirements , capital requirements , and other limits on leverage . Some financial crises have been blamed on insufficient regulation, and have led to changes in regulation in order to avoid a repeat. For example, the former Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund , Dominique Strauss-Kahn , has blamed
5396-440: Is no longer available. When this occurs, economic agents outside the industry find no advantage to entering the market, as there is no economic profit to be gained. Then, the supply of the product stops increasing, and the price charged for the product stabilizes, settling into an equilibrium . The same is likewise true of the long run equilibria of monopolistically competitive industries, and more generally any market which
5538-501: Is scarce, potentially aggravating a financial crisis. International regulatory convergence has been interpreted in terms of regulatory herding, deepening market herding (discussed above) and so increasing systemic risk. From this perspective, maintaining diverse regulatory regimes would be a safeguard. Fraud has played a role in the collapse of some financial institutions, when companies have attracted depositors with misleading claims about their investment strategies, or have embezzled
5680-571: Is taxed by government and returned to the mass of people in the form of welfare, family benefits and health and education spending; and secondly, the proportion of the population who are workers rather than investors/business owners. Given the extraordinary capital expenditure required to enter modern economic sectors like airline transport, the military industry, or chemical production, these sectors are extremely difficult for new businesses to enter and are being concentrated in fewer and fewer hands. Empirical and econometric research continues especially in
5822-461: Is the internal structure of the market, not external influences, which is primarily responsible for crashes. In "adaptive learning" or "adaptive expectations" models, investors are assumed to be imperfectly rational, basing their reasoning only on recent experience. In such models, if the price of a given asset rises for some period of time, investors may begin to believe that its price always rises, which increases their tendency to buy and thus drives
1997 Asian financial crisis - Misplaced Pages Continue
5964-658: Is the type of argument underlying Diamond and Dybvig's model of bank runs , in which savers withdraw their assets from the bank because they expect others to withdraw too. Likewise, in Obstfeld's model of currency crises , when economic conditions are neither too bad nor too good, there are two possible outcomes: speculators may or may not decide to attack the currency depending on what they expect other speculators to do. A variety of models have been developed in which asset values may spiral excessively up or down as investors learn from each other. In these models, asset purchases by
6106-412: Is what occurs in a perfectly competitive market. In a perfectly competitive market when long-run economic equilibrium is reached, economic profit would become non-existent, because there is no incentive for firms either to enter or to leave the industry . Companies do not make any economic profits in a perfectly competitive market once it has reached a long run equilibrium. If an economic profit
6248-626: The European Exchange Rate Mechanism suffered crises in 1992–93 and were forced to devalue or withdraw from the mechanism. Another round of currency crises took place in Asia in 1997–98 . Many Latin American countries defaulted on their debt in the early 1980s. The 1998 Russian financial crisis resulted in a devaluation of the ruble and default on Russian government bonds. Negative GDP growth lasting two or more quarters
6390-532: The Jakarta Stock Exchange touched a historic low in September. Moody's eventually downgraded Indonesia's long-term debt to " junk bond ". Although the rupiah crisis began in July and August 1997, it intensified in November when the effects of that summer devaluation showed up on corporate balance sheets. Companies that had borrowed in dollars had to face the higher costs imposed upon them by
6532-615: The Latin American debt crisis . The effects of the SAPs were mixed and their impact controversial. Critics, however, noted the contractionary nature of these policies, arguing that in a recession , the traditional Keynesian response was to increase government spending, prop up major companies, and lower interest rates. The reasoning was that by stimulating the economy and staving off recession , governments could restore confidence while preventing economic loss . They pointed out that
6674-519: The South Sea Bubble and Mississippi Bubble of 1720, which occurred when the notion of investment in shares of company stock was itself new and unfamiliar, and the Crash of 1929 , which followed the introduction of new electrical and transportation technologies. More recently, many financial crises followed changes in the investment environment brought about by financial deregulation , and
6816-433: The bursting of other financial bubbles , currency crises , and sovereign defaults . Financial crises directly result in a loss of paper wealth but do not necessarily result in significant changes in the real economy (for example, the crisis resulting from the famous tulip mania bubble in the 17th century). Many economists have offered theories about how financial crises develop and how they could be prevented. There
6958-428: The exchange market was flooded with the currencies of the crisis countries, putting depreciative pressure on their exchange rates. To prevent currency values collapsing, these countries' governments raised domestic interest rates to exceedingly high levels (to help diminish flight of capital by making lending more attractive to investors) and intervened in the exchange market, buying up any excess domestic currency at
7100-712: The financial crisis of 2007–2008 on 'regulatory failure to guard against excessive risk-taking in the financial system, especially in the US'. Likewise, the New York Times singled out the deregulation of credit default swaps as a cause of the crisis. However, excessive regulation has also been cited as a possible cause of financial crises. In particular, the Basel II Accord has been criticized for requiring banks to increase their capital when risks rise, which might cause them to decrease lending precisely when capital
7242-454: The fixed exchange rate with foreign reserves . Neither of these policy responses could be sustained for long, as several countries had insufficient levels of foreign exchange reserves. Very high interest rates, which can be extremely damaging to a healthy economy, wreaked further havoc on economies in an already fragile state, while the central banks were hemorrhaging foreign reserves, of which they had finite amounts. When it became clear that
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#17327732452017384-478: The stock market (" margin buying ") became increasingly common prior to the Wall Street Crash of 1929 . Another factor believed to contribute to financial crises is asset-liability mismatch , a situation in which the risks associated with an institution's debts and assets are not appropriately aligned. For example, commercial banks offer deposit accounts that can be withdrawn at any time, and they use
7526-422: The world systems theory and in the debate about Nikolai Kondratiev and the so-called 50-years Kondratiev waves . Major figures of world systems theory, like Andre Gunder Frank and Immanuel Wallerstein , consistently warned about the crash that the world economy is now facing. World systems scholars and Kondratiev cycle researchers always implied that Washington Consensus oriented economists never understood
7668-472: The " structural adjustment package" (SAP). The SAPs called on crisis-struck nations to reduce government spending and deficits, allow insolvent banks and financial institutions to fail, and aggressively raise interest rates. The reasoning was that these steps would restore confidence in the nations' fiscal solvency , penalize insolvent companies, and protect currency values. Above all, it was stipulated that IMF-funded capital had to be administered rationally in
7810-432: The "General Agreement to Borrow" and the "Emergency Finance Mechanism". The scope and the severity of the collapses led to an urgent need for outside intervention. Since the countries melting down were among the richest in their region, and in the world, and since hundreds of billions of dollars were at stake, any response to the crisis was likely to be cooperative and international. The International Monetary Fund created
7952-614: The 17th century Dutch tulip mania , the 18th century South Sea Bubble , the Wall Street Crash of 1929 , the Japanese property bubble of the 1980s, and the crash of the United States housing bubble during 2006–2008. The 2000s sparked a real estate bubble where housing prices were increasing significantly as an asset good. When a country that maintains a fixed exchange rate is suddenly forced to devalue its currency due to accruing an unsustainable current account deficit, this
8094-471: The 1990s after the implementation of a number of export-oriented reforms. Other economists dispute China's impact, noting that both ASEAN and China experienced simultaneous rapid export growth in the early 1990s. Many economists believe that the Asian crisis was created not by market psychology or technology, but by policies that distorted incentives within the lender–borrower relationship. The resulting large quantities of credit that became available generated
8236-498: The 1990s, hot money flew into the Southeast Asia region through financial hubs , especially Hong Kong. The investors were often ignorant of the actual fundamentals or risk profiles of the respective economies, and once the crisis gripped the region, the political uncertainty regarding the future of Hong Kong as an Asian financial centre led some investors to withdraw from Asia altogether. This shrink in investments only worsened
8378-491: The 2008 subprime mortgage crisis ; government officials stated on 23 September 2008 that the FBI was looking into possible fraud by mortgage financing companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac , Lehman Brothers , and insurer American International Group . Likewise it has been argued that many financial companies failed in the recent crisis because their managers failed to carry out their fiduciary duties. Contagion refers to
8520-557: The IMF, the reserves of Thailand and South Korea were perilously low, and the Indonesian Rupiah was excessively depreciated. Thus, the first order of business was... to restore confidence in the currency. To achieve this, countries have to make it more attractive to hold domestic currency, which in turn, requires increasing interest rates temporarily, even if higher interest costs complicate the situation of weak banks and corporations... Why not operate with lower interest rates and
8662-612: The Philippines dropped to virtually zero. Only Singapore proved relatively insulated from the shock, but nevertheless suffered serious hits in passing, mainly due to its status as a major financial hub and its geographical proximity to Malaysia and Indonesia. By 1999, however, analysts saw signs that the economies of Asia were beginning to recover. After the crisis, economies in East and Southeast Asia worked together toward financial stability and better financial supervision. The causes of
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#17327732452018804-408: The U.S. government had pursued expansionary policies, such as lowering interest rates, increasing government spending, and cutting taxes, when the United States itself entered a recession in 2001, and arguably the same in the fiscal and monetary policies during the 2008–2009 Global Financial Crisis. Many commentators in retrospect criticized the IMF for encouraging the developing economies of Asia down
8946-594: The USD–Baht currency peg, and the Thai government was eventually forced to float the Baht, on 2 July 1997, allowing the value of the Baht to be set by the currency market. This caused a chain reaction of events, eventually culminating into a region-wide crisis. Thailand's booming economy came to a halt amid massive layoffs in finance, real estate, and construction that resulted in huge numbers of workers returning to their villages in
9088-474: The United States a more attractive investment destination relative to Southeast Asia, which had been attracting hot money flows through high short-term interest rates, and raised the value of the U.S. dollar. For the Southeast Asian nations which had currencies pegged to the U.S. dollar, the higher U.S. dollar caused their own exports to become more expensive and less competitive in the global markets. At
9230-415: The actual risks in the economy and stop giving credit so easily. Refinancing becomes impossible for many, and more firms default. If no new money comes into the economy to allow the refinancing process, a real economic crisis begins. During the recession, firms start to hedge again, and the cycle is closed. The Banking School theory of crises describes a continuous cycle driven by varying interest rates. It
9372-583: The affected countries were at the EMEAP (Executive Meeting of East Asia Pacific) meeting in Shanghai, and they failed to make the "New Arrangement to Borrow" operational. A year earlier, the finance ministers of these same countries had attended the 3rd APEC finance ministers meeting in Kyoto , Japan, on 17 March 1996, and according to that joint declaration, they had been unable to double the amounts available under
9514-476: The assumptions of unique, well-defined causal chains being present in economic thinking, models and data, could, in part, explain why financial crises are often inherent and unavoidable. When a bank suffers a sudden rush of withdrawals by depositors, this is called a bank run . Since banks lend out most of the cash they receive in deposits (see fractional-reserve banking ), it is difficult for them to quickly pay back all deposits if these are suddenly demanded, so
9656-537: The best of the points where the gradients of the two curves (marginal revenue and marginal cost respectively) are equal. In the real world, it is not so easy to know exactly firm's marginal revenue and the marginal cost of last goods sold. For example, it is difficult for firms to know the price elasticity of demand for their good – which determines the MR. In interdependent markets, It means firm's profit also depends on how other firms react, game theory must be used to derive
9798-468: The bursting of other real estate bubbles around the world also led to recession in the U.S. and a number of other countries in late 2008 and 2009. Some economists argue that financial crises are caused by recessions instead of the other way around, and that even where a financial crisis is the initial shock that sets off a recession, other factors may be more important in prolonging the recession. In particular, Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz argued that
9940-400: The chain objectives of tightened money supply , discouraged currency speculation , stabilized exchange rate, curbed currency depreciation, and ultimately contained inflation . In the Asian meltdown, highest IMF officials rationalized their prescribed high interest rates as follows: From then IMF First Deputy managing director, Stanley Fischer in 1998: When their governments "approached
10082-628: The circular relationships often evident in social systems between cause and effect – and relates to the property of self-referencing in financial markets. George Soros has been a proponent of the reflexivity paradigm surrounding financial crises. Similarly, John Maynard Keynes compared financial markets to a beauty contest game in which each participant tries to predict which model other participants will consider most beautiful. Furthermore, in many cases, investors have incentives to coordinate their choices. For example, someone who thinks other investors want to heavily buy Japanese yen may expect
10224-728: The company's total revenue is equal to its total costs, then its economic profit is equal to zero and the company is in a state of normal profit. Normal profit occurs when resources are being used in the most efficient way at the highest and best use. Normal profit and economic profit are economic considerations while accounting profit refers to the profit a company reports on its financial statements each period. Economic profits arise in markets which are non-competitive and have significant barriers to entry , i.e. monopolies and oligopolies . The inefficiencies and lack of competition in these markets foster an environment where firms can set prices or quantities instead of being price-takers , which
10366-425: The costs of production, receiving an income that is significantly more than its implicit and explicit costs. The existence of uncompetitive markets puts consumers at risk of paying substantially higher prices for lower quality products. When monopolies and oligopolies hold large portions of the market share, less emphasis is placed on consumer demand than there would be in a perfectly competitive market, especially if
10508-477: The country to balance its budget and repay its debts to the IMF in 2003, four years ahead of schedule. The Thai baht continued to appreciate to 29 Baht to the U.S. dollar in October 2010. In June 1997, Indonesia seemed far from crisis. Unlike Thailand, Indonesia had low inflation, a trade surplus of more than $ 900 million, huge foreign exchange reserves of more than $ 20 billion, and a good banking sector. However,
10650-624: The country, many factors arising from all aspects, including sports broadcasting on Indonesian television, including: Additionally, the Indonesian motorcycle Grand Prix , which was held at Sentul , was dropped from the 1998 Superbike and MotoGP calendars. World Rally Championship also dropped the Rally Indonesia from their 1998 calendar . The banking sector was burdened with non-performing loans as its large corporations were funding aggressive expansions. During that time, there
10792-856: The countryside and 600,000 foreign workers being sent back to their home countries. The baht devalued swiftly and lost more than half of its value. The baht reached its lowest point of 56 units to the U.S. dollar in January 1998. The Thai stock market dropped 75%. Finance One, the largest Thai finance company until then, collapsed. On 11 August 1997, the IMF unveiled a rescue package for Thailand with more than $ 17 billion, subject to conditions such as passing laws relating to bankruptcy (reorganizing and restructuring) procedures and establishing strong regulation frameworks for banks and other financial institutions. The IMF approved on 20 August 1997, another bailout package of $ 2.9 billion. Poverty and inequality increased while employment, wages and social welfare all declined as
10934-416: The crash of the dot com bubble in 2001 arguably began with "irrational exuberance" about Internet technology. Unfamiliarity with recent technical and financial innovations may help explain how investors sometimes grossly overestimate asset values. Also, if the first investors in a new class of assets (for example, stock in "dot com" companies) profit from rising asset values as other investors learn about
11076-410: The crisis spread, other Southeast Asian countries and later Japan and South Korea saw slumping currencies, devalued stock markets and other asset prices, and a precipitous rise in private debt . Foreign debt-to-GDP ratios rose from 100% to 167% in the four large Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) economies in 1993–96, then shot up beyond 180% during the worst of the crisis. In South Korea,
11218-401: The current financial system . Profit (economics) In economics, profit is the difference between revenue that an economic entity has received from its outputs and total costs of its inputs, also known as surplus value . It is equal to total revenue minus total cost, including both explicit and implicit costs. It is different from accounting profit , which only relates to
11360-448: The cycle restarts from the beginning. Mathematical approaches to modeling financial crises have emphasized that there is often positive feedback between market participants' decisions (see strategic complementarity ). Positive feedback implies that there may be dramatic changes in asset values in response to small changes in economic fundamentals. For example, some models of currency crises (including that of Paul Krugman ) imply that
11502-413: The dangers and perils, which leading industrial nations will be facing and are now facing at the end of the long economic cycle which began after the oil crisis of 1973. Hyman Minsky has proposed a post-Keynesian explanation that is most applicable to a closed economy. He theorized that financial fragility is a typical feature of any capitalist economy . High fragility leads to a higher risk of
11644-481: The debacle are many and disputed. Thailand's economy developed into an economic bubble fueled by hot money . More and more was required as the size of the bubble grew. The same type of situation happened in Malaysia and Indonesia, which had the added complication of what was called " crony capitalism ". The short-term capital flow was expensive and often highly conditioned for quick profit . Development money went in
11786-641: The domestic situation in Indonesia. After 30 years in power, Indonesian President Suharto was forced to step down on 21 May 1998 in the wake of widespread rioting that followed sharp price increases caused by a drastic devaluation of the rupiah . The effects of the crisis lingered through 1998, where many important stocks fell in Wall Street as a result of a dip in the values of the currencies of Russia and Latin American countries that weakened those countries' "demand for U.S. exports." In 1998, growth in
11928-690: The economic environment. The devaluation of the Chinese renminbi and the Japanese yen , subsequent to the latter's strengthening due to the Plaza Accord of 1985, the raising of U.S. interest rates which led to a strong U.S. dollar, and the sharp decline in semiconductor prices, all adversely affected their growth. As the U.S. economy recovered from a recession in the early 1990s, the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank under Alan Greenspan began to raise U.S. interest rates to head off inflation . This made
12070-552: The economy. These theoretical ideas include the ' financial accelerator ', ' flight to quality ' and ' flight to liquidity ', and the Kiyotaki-Moore model . Some 'third generation' models of currency crises explore how currency crises and banking crises together can cause recessions. Austrian School economists Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek discussed the business cycle starting with Mises' Theory of Money and Credit , published in 1912. Recurrent major depressions in
12212-448: The explicit costs that appear on a firm's financial statements . An accountant measures the firm's accounting profit as the firm's total revenue minus only the firm's explicit costs. An economist includes all costs, both explicit and implicit costs, when analyzing a firm. Therefore, economic profit is smaller than accounting profit. Normal profit is often viewed in conjunction with economic profit. Normal profits in business refer to
12354-524: The financial conditions in Asia (subsequently leading to the depreciation of the Thai baht on 2 July 1997). Several case studies on the topic of the application of network analysis of a financial system help to explain the interconnectivity of financial markets , as well as the significance of the robustness of hubs (or main nodes). Any negative externalities in the hubs creates a ripple effect through
12496-497: The financial system and the economy (as well as any connected economies) as a whole. The foreign ministers of the 10 ASEAN countries believed that the well co-ordinated manipulation of their currencies was a deliberate attempt to destabilize the ASEAN economies. Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad accused George Soros and other currency traders of ruining Malaysia's economy with currency speculation . Soros claims to have been
12638-408: The form of wages) than the value of the goods produced by those workers (i.e. the amount of money the products are sold for). This profit first goes towards covering the initial investment in the business. In the long-run, however, when one considers the combined economic activity of all successfully-operating business, it is clear that less money (in the form of wages) is being returned to the mass of
12780-511: The funds cannot be liquidated quickly (a similar mechanism was implicated in the March 2023 failure of SVB Bank ). Internationally, arbitrage and the need to stop capital flows, which caused bullion drains in the gold standard of the nineteenth century and drains of foreign capital later, bring interest rates in the low-rate country up to equal those in the country which is the subject of investment. The capital flows reverse or cease suddenly causing
12922-496: The future, with no favored parties receiving funds by preference. In at least one of the affected countries the restrictions on foreign ownership were greatly reduced. There were to be adequate government controls set up to supervise all financial activities, ones that were to be independent, in theory, of private interest. Insolvent institutions had to be closed, and insolvency itself had to be clearly defined. In addition, financial systems were to become "transparent", that is, provide
13064-603: The good provided has an inelastic demand. Government intervention in the form of restrictions and subsidies can also create uncompetitive markets. Governments can also intervene in uncompetitive markets in an attempt to raise the number of firms in the industry, but these firms cannot support the needs of consumers as if they were born out of a profit generated on a competitive market basis. Competition laws were created to prevent powerful firms from using their economic power to artificially create barriers to entry in an attempt to protect their economic profits. This includes
13206-403: The highest economic growth rate of any country at the time. Inflation was kept reasonably low within a range of 3.4–5.7%. The baht was pegged at 25 to the U.S. dollar. On 14 and 15 May 1997, the Thai baht was hit by massive speculative attacks. On 30 June 1997, Prime Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh said that he would not devalue the baht. However, Thailand lacked the foreign reserves to support
13348-442: The idea that financial crises may spread from one institution to another, as when a bank run spreads from a few banks to many others, or from one country to another, as when currency crises, sovereign defaults, or stock market crashes spread across countries. When the failure of one particular financial institution threatens the stability of many other institutions, this is called systemic risk . One widely cited example of contagion
13490-423: The incumbent firms within the industry face losing their existing customers to the new entrants, they are also forced to reduce their prices. Therefore, increased competition reduces price and cost to the minimum of the long run average costs. At this point, price equals both the marginal cost and the average total cost for each good production. Once this has occurred a perfect competition exists and economic profit
13632-506: The initial economic decline associated with the crash of 1929 and the bank panics of the 1930s would not have turned into a prolonged depression if it had not been reinforced by monetary policy mistakes on the part of the Federal Reserve, a position supported by Ben Bernanke . It is often observed that successful investment requires each investor in a financial market to guess what other investors will do. Reflexivity refers to
13774-504: The innovation (in our example, as others learn about the potential of the Internet), then still more others may follow their example, driving the price even higher as they rush to buy in hopes of similar profits. If such " herd behaviour " causes prices to spiral up far above the true value of the assets, a crash may become inevitable. If for any reason the price briefly falls, so that investors realize that further gains are not assured, then
13916-463: The international financial community. Later that year, in July, South Korea's third-largest car maker, Kia Motors , asked for emergency loans. The domino effect of collapsing large South Korean companies drove the interest rates up and international investors away. In the wake of the Asian market downturn, Moody's lowered the credit rating of South Korea from A1 to A3, on 28 November 1997, and downgraded again to B2 on 11 December. That contributed to
14058-450: The kind of financial information used in the West to make financial decisions. As countries fell into crisis, many local businesses and governments that had taken out loans in US dollars, which suddenly became much more expensive relative to the local currency which formed their earned income, found themselves unable to pay their creditors. The dynamics of the situation were similar to that of
14200-427: The market again, making the long run equilibrium much more like that of a competitive industry, with no economic profit for firms and more reasonable prices for consumers. On the other hand, if a government feels it is impractical to have a competitive market—such as in the case of a natural monopoly —it will allow a monopolistic market to occur. The government will regulate the existing uncompetitive market and control
14342-512: The market share. In an oligopoly, firms are able to collude and limit production, thereby restricting supply and maintaining a constant economic profit. An extreme case of an uncompetitive market is a monopoly, where only one firm has the ability to supply a good which has no close substitutes . In this case, the monopolist can set its price at any level it desires, maintaining a substantial economic profit. In both scenarios, firms are able to maintain an economic profit by setting prices well above
14484-408: The market-set price. Economic profit is much more prevalent in uncompetitive markets such as in a perfect monopoly or oligopoly situation, where few substitutes exit. In these scenarios, individual firms have some element of market power . Although monopolists are constrained by consumer demand , they are not price takers, but instead either price or quantity setters. Due to the output effect and
14626-518: The modern equivalent of this process involves the Carry Trade, see Carry (investment) . Some financial crises have little effect outside of the financial sector, like the Wall Street crash of 1987 , but other crises are believed to have played a role in decreasing growth in the rest of the economy. There are many theories why a financial crisis could have a recessionary effect on the rest of
14768-428: The money they lend. Therefore, they are ready to lend to firms without full guarantees of success. Lenders know that such firms will have problems repaying. Still, they believe these firms will refinance from elsewhere as their expected profits rise. This is Ponzi financing. In this way, the economy has taken on much risky credit. Now it is only a question of time before some big firm actually defaults. Lenders understand
14910-435: The monopoly's application for a higher price. Though a regulated firm will not have an economic profit as large as it would in an unregulated situation, it can still make profits well above a competitive firm in a truly competitive market. It is a standard economic assumption (although not necessarily a perfect one in the real world) that, other things being equal, a firm will attempt to maximize its profits. Given that profit
15052-442: The path of "fast-track capitalism", meaning liberalization of the financial sector (elimination of restrictions on capital flows), maintenance of high domestic interest rates to attract portfolio investment and bank capital, and pegging of the national currency to the dollar to reassure foreign investors against currency risk. The conventional high-interest-rate economic strategy is normally employed by monetary authorities to attain
15194-410: The population (the workers) than is available to them to buy all of these goods being produced. Furthermore, the expansion of businesses in the process of competing for markets leads to an abundance of goods and a general fall in their prices, further exacerbating the tendency for the rate of profit to fall . The viability of this theory depends upon two main factors: firstly, the degree to which profit
15336-399: The price effect, marginal revenue for uncompetitive markets is very different from marginal revenue for competitive firms. In the output effect, more output is sold, quantity sold is higher. In the price effect, this reduces the prices firms charge for every unit they sell, and cut in price reduces revenue on the units it was already selling. Therefore, in uncompetitive market, marginal revenue
15478-436: The price of goods in each market area is set by each market then overall profit is maximized. The social profit from a firm's activities is the accounting profit plus or minus any externalities or consumer surpluses that occur in its activity. An externality including positive externality and negative externality is an effect that production/consumption of a specific good exerts on people who are not involved. Pollution
15620-408: The price the firms charge for their product. For example, the old AT&T (regulated) monopoly, which existed before the courts ordered its breakup , had to get government approval to raise its prices. The government examined the monopoly's costs, and determined whether or not the monopoly should be able raise its price. If the government felt that the cost did not justify a higher price, it rejected
15762-549: The price up further. Likewise, observing a few price decreases may give rise to a downward price spiral, so in models of this type, large fluctuations in asset prices may occur. Agent-based models of financial markets often assume investors act on the basis of adaptive learning or adaptive expectations. As the most recent and most damaging financial crisis event, the Global financial crisis, deserves special attention, as its causes, effects, response, and lessons are most applicable to
15904-402: The proceeds to make long-term loans to businesses and homeowners. The mismatch between the banks' short-term liabilities (its deposits) and its long-term assets (its loans) is seen as one of the reasons bank runs occur (when depositors panic and decide to withdraw their funds more quickly than the bank can get back the proceeds of its loans). Likewise, Bear Stearns failed in 2007–08 because it
16046-416: The product disappears, and the initial monopoly turns into a competitive industry. In the case of contestable markets, the cycle is often ended with the departure of the former "hit and run" entrants to the market, returning the industry to its previous state, just with a lower price and no economic profit for the incumbent firms. Economic profit can, however, occur in competitive and contestable markets in
16188-405: The profitability of the product is well established, and because there are few barriers to entry , the number of firms that produce this product will increase. Eventually, the supply of the product will become relatively large, and the price of the product will reduce to the level of the average cost of production. When this finally occurs, all economic profit associated with producing and selling
16330-536: The program, 787 insolvent financial institutions were closed or merged by June 2003. The number of financial institutions in which foreign investors invested has increased rapidly. Examples include New Bridge Capital's takeover of Korea First Bank. The South Korean won , meanwhile, weakened to more than 1,700 per U.S. dollar from around 800, but later managed to recover. However, like the chaebol, South Korea's government did not escape unscathed. Its national debt -to-GDP ratio more than doubled (approximately 13% to 30%) as
16472-463: The rate was almost exactly 8,000 to 1 U.S. dollar. Indonesia lost 13.5% of its GDP that year. In February 1998, President Suharto sacked the incumbent Bank Indonesia governor, J. Soedradjad Djiwandono , but this proved insufficient. Amidst widespread rioting in May 1998 , Suharto resigned under public pressure and Vice President B. J. Habibie replaced him. As a result of the financial crisis that hit
16614-562: The ratios rose from 13% to 21% and then as high as 40%, while the other northern newly industrialized countries fared much better. Only in Thailand and South Korea did debt service-to-exports ratios rise. South Korea , Indonesia and Thailand were the countries most affected by the crisis. Hong Kong , Laos , Malaysia and the Philippines were also hurt by the slump. Brunei , mainland China , Japan , Singapore , Taiwan , and Vietnam were less affected, although all suffered from
16756-678: The resulting income. Examples include Charles Ponzi 's scam in early 20th century Boston, the collapse of the MMM investment fund in Russia in 1994, the scams that led to the Albanian Lottery Uprising of 1997, and the collapse of Madoff Investment Securities in 2008. Many rogue traders that have caused large losses at financial institutions have been accused of acting fraudulently in order to hide their trades. Fraud in mortgage financing has also been cited as one possible cause of
16898-404: The role of asymmetric information in the financial markets that led to a " herd mentality " among investors that magnified a small risk in the real economy. The crisis has thus attracted attention from behavioral economists interested in market psychology . Another possible cause of the sudden risk shock may also be attributable to the handover of Hong Kong sovereignty on 1 July 1997 . During
17040-408: The role of the real economy in the crisis compared to the financial markets. The rapidity with which the crisis happened has prompted Sachs and others to compare it to a classic bank run prompted by a sudden risk shock. Sachs pointed to strict monetary and contractionary fiscal policies implemented by the governments on the advice of the IMF in the wake of the crisis, while Frederic Mishkin points to
17182-550: The rupiah currency trading band from 8% to 12%. As a result, the rupiah suddenly came under severe attack in August. Therefore, on the 14th of the month, the managed floating exchange regime was replaced by a free-floating exchange rate arrangement. The rupiah dropped further due to the shift. The IMF came forward with a rescue package of $ 23 billion, but the rupiah was sinking further amid fears over corporate debts, massive selling of rupiah, and strong demand for dollars. The rupiah and
17324-457: The rupiah's decline, and many reacted by buying dollars through selling rupiah, undermining the value of the latter further. Before the crisis, the exchange rate between the rupiah and the dollar was roughly 2,600 rupiah to 1 U.S. dollar. The rate plunged to over 11,000 rupiah to 1 U.S. dollar on 9 January 1998, with spot rates over 14,000 during 23–26 January and trading again over 14,000 for about six weeks during June–July 1998. On 31 December 1998,
17466-471: The safest. As the economy grows and expected profits rise, firms tend to believe that they can allow themselves to take on speculative financing. In this case, they know that profits will not cover all the interest all the time. Firms, however, believe that profits will rise and the loans will eventually be repaid without much trouble. More loans lead to more investment, and the economy grows further. Then lenders also start believing that they will get back all
17608-425: The same thing they expect others to do, then self-fulfilling prophecies may occur. For example, if investors expect the value of the yen to rise, this may cause its value to rise; if depositors expect a bank to fail this may cause it to fail. Therefore, financial crises are sometimes viewed as a vicious circle in which investors shun some institution or asset because they expect others to do so. Reflexivity poses
17750-447: The same time, Southeast Asia's export growth slowed dramatically in the spring of 1996, deteriorating their current account position. Some economists have advanced the growing exports of China as a factor contributing to ASEAN nations' export growth slowdown, though these economists maintain the main cause of their crises was excessive real estate speculation. China had begun to compete effectively with other Asian exporters particularly in
17892-500: The short run, since short run economic profits attract new competitors and prices fall. Economic loss forces firms out of the industry and prices rise till marginal revenue equals marginal cost, then reach long run equilibrium. As a result of firms jostling for market position. Once risk is accounted for, long-lasting economic profit in a competitive market is thus viewed as the result of constant cost-cutting and performance improvement ahead of industry competitors, allowing costs to be below
18034-425: The spiral may go into reverse, with price decreases causing a rush of sales, reinforcing the decrease in prices. Governments have attempted to eliminate or mitigate financial crises by regulating the financial sector. One major goal of regulation is transparency : making institutions' financial situations publicly known by requiring regular reporting under standardized accounting procedures. Another goal of regulation
18176-508: The start of the crisis to 46.50 pesos in early 1998 to 53 pesos as in July 2001. Financial crisis Heterodox A financial crisis is any of a broad variety of situations in which some financial assets suddenly lose a large part of their nominal value. In the 19th and early 20th centuries, many financial crises were associated with banking panics , and many recessions coincided with these panics. Other situations that are often called financial crises include stock market crashes and
18318-456: The subject of investment to be starved of funds and the remaining investors (often those who are least knowledgeable) to be left with devalued assets. Bankruptcies, defaults and bank failures follow as rates are pushed high. After the crisis governments push short-term interest rates low again to diminish the cost of servicing government borrowing which has been used to overcome the crisis. Funds build up again looking for investment opportunities and
18460-575: The tendency for the rate of profit to fall borrowed many features of the presentation of John Stuart Mill 's discussion Of the Tendency of Profits to a Minimum (Principles of Political Economy Book IV Chapter IV). The theory is a corollary of the Tendency towards the Centralization of Profits . In a capitalist system, successfully-operating businesses return less money to their workers (in
18602-465: The tide of capital fleeing these countries was not to be stopped, the authorities ceased defending their fixed exchange rates and allowed their currencies to float . The resulting depreciated value of those currencies meant that foreign currency-denominated liabilities grew substantially in domestic currency terms, causing more bankruptcies and further deepening the crisis. Other economists, including Joseph Stiglitz and Jeffrey Sachs , have downplayed
18744-697: The use of predatory pricing toward smaller competitors. For example, in the United States, Microsoft Corporation was initially convicted of breaking Anti-Trust Law and engaging in anti-competitive behaviour in order to form one such barrier in United States v. Microsoft . After a successful appeal on technical grounds, Microsoft agreed to a settlement with the Department of Justice in which they were faced with stringent oversight procedures and explicit requirements designed to prevent this predatory behaviour. With lower barriers, new firms can enter into
18886-515: The very worst case, lose its own money. But when it borrows in order to invest more, it can potentially earn more from its investment, but it can also lose more than all it has. Therefore, leverage magnifies the potential returns from investment, but also creates a risk of bankruptcy . Since bankruptcy means that a firm fails to honor all its promised payments to other firms, it may spread financial troubles from one firm to another (see 'Contagion' below). For example, borrowing to finance investment in
19028-399: The world economy at the pace of 20 and 50 years have been the subject of studies since Jean Charles Léonard de Sismondi (1773–1842) provided the first theory of crisis in a critique of classical political economy's assumption of equilibrium between supply and demand. Developing an economic crisis theory became the central recurring concept throughout Karl Marx 's mature work. Marx's law of
19170-485: The yen to rise in value, and therefore has an incentive to buy yen, too. Likewise, a depositor in IndyMac Bank who expects other depositors to withdraw their funds may expect the bank to fail, and therefore has an incentive to withdraw, too. Economists call an incentive to mimic the strategies of others strategic complementarity . It has been argued that if people or firms have a sufficiently strong incentive to do
19312-574: Was a haste to build great conglomerates to compete on the world stage. Many businesses ultimately failed to ensure returns and profitability. The chaebol , South Korean conglomerates, simply absorbed more and more capital investment. Eventually, excess debt led to major failures and takeovers. Amongst other stimuli, the crisis resulted in the bankruptcy of major Korean companies, provoking not only corporations, but also government officials towards corruption. The Hanbo scandal of early 1997 exposed South Korea's economic weaknesses and corruption problems to
19454-449: Was available, there would be an incentive for new firms to enter the industry, aided by a lack of barriers to entry , until it no longer existed. When new firms enter the market, the overall supply increases. Furthermore, these intruders are forced to offer their product at a lower price to entice consumers to buy the additional supply they have created and to compete with the incumbent firms (see Monopoly profit § Persistence ). As
19596-502: Was dissolved due to the crisis, and eventually Daewoo Motors was sold to the American company General Motors (GM). The International Monetary Fund (IMF) provided US$ 58.4 billion as a bailout package. In return, Korea was required to take restructuring measures. The ceiling on foreign investment in Korean companies was raised from 26 percent to 100 percent. In addition, the Korean government started financial sector reform program. Under
19738-402: Was known as part of the " Asian economic miracle ". In the mid-1990s, Thailand , Indonesia and South Korea had large private current account deficits, and the maintenance of fixed exchange rates encouraged external borrowing and led to excessive exposure to foreign exchange risk in both the financial and corporate sectors. In the mid-1990s, a series of external shocks began to change
19880-487: Was known as the Tom Yum Kung crisis ( Thai : วิกฤตต้มยำกุ้ง ) on 2 July, it followed the financial collapse of the Thai baht after the Thai government was forced to float the baht due to lack of foreign currency to support its currency peg to the U.S. dollar . Capital flight ensued almost immediately, beginning an international chain reaction. At the time, Thailand had acquired a burden of foreign debt . As
20022-684: Was the spread of the Thai crisis in 1997 to other countries like South Korea . However, economists often debate whether observing crises in many countries around the same time is truly caused by contagion from one market to another, or whether it is instead caused by similar underlying problems that would have affected each country individually even in the absence of international linkages. The nineteenth century Banking School theory of crises suggested that crises were caused by flows of investment capital between areas with different rates of interest. Capital could be borrowed in areas with low interest rates and invested in areas of high interest. Using this method
20164-449: Was unable to renew the short-term debt it used to finance long-term investments in mortgage securities. In an international context, many emerging market governments are unable to sell bonds denominated in their own currencies, and therefore sell bonds denominated in US dollars instead. This generates a mismatch between the currency denomination of their liabilities (their bonds) and their assets (their local tax revenues), so that they run
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