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Fortune-telling

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A prediction ( Latin præ- , "before," and dictum , "something said" ) or forecast is a statement about a future event or about future data . Predictions are often, but not always, based upon experience or knowledge of forecasters. There is no universal agreement about the exact difference between "prediction" and " estimation "; different authors and disciplines ascribe different connotations .

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111-472: Fortune telling is the unproven spiritual practice of predicting information about a person's life. The scope of fortune telling is in principle identical with the practice of divination . The difference is that divination is the term used for predictions considered part of a religious ritual, invoking deities or spirits, while the term fortune telling implies a less serious or formal setting, even one of popular culture , where belief in occult workings behind

222-482: A stock market crash . In contrast to predicting the actual stock return, forecasting of broad economic trends tends to have better accuracy. Such analysis is provided by both non-profit groups as well as by for-profit private institutions. Some correlation has been seen between actual stock market movements and prediction data from large groups in surveys and prediction games. An actuary uses actuarial science to assess and predict future business risk , such that

333-522: A supernatural agency, most often described as an angel or a god though viewed by Christians and Jews as a fallen angel or demon. Fiction (especially fantasy, forecasting and science fiction) often features instances of prediction achieved by unconventional means. Science fiction of the past predicted various modern technologies . In fantasy literature, predictions are often obtained through magic or prophecy , sometimes referring back to old traditions. For example, in J. R. R. Tolkien 's The Lord of

444-441: A belief in paranormal ideas. The percentage was greater among college seniors (31%) and graduate students (34%). The poll showed lower belief in psychic phenomena among science students than social science and education students. Some people also believe that anyone can have psychic abilities which can be activated or enhanced through the study and practice of various disciplines and techniques such as meditation and divination, with

555-581: A commodity within the marketplace". As J. Peder Zane wrote in The New York Times in 1994, referring to the Psychic Friends Network , "Whether it's 3 P.M. or 3 A.M., there's Dionne Warwick and her psychic friends selling advice on love, money and success. In a nation where the power of crystals and the likelihood that angels hover nearby prompt more contemplation than ridicule, it may not be surprising that one million people

666-403: A controlled way. This type of prediction might be perceived as consistent with statistical techniques in the sense that, at minimum, the "data" being used is the predicting expert's cognitive experiences forming an intuitive "probability curve." In statistics , prediction is a part of statistical inference . One particular approach to such inference is known as predictive inference , but

777-634: A controversial figure. His many enthusiasts, as well as the popular press, credit him with predicting many major world events. Interest in his work is still considerable, especially in the media and in popular culture . By contrast, most academic scholars maintain that the associations made between world events and Nostradamus' quatrains are largely the result of misinterpretations or mistranslations (sometimes deliberate) or else are so tenuous as to render them useless as evidence of any genuine predictive power. Englishwoman Mother Shipton demonstrated psychic abilities from her youth and foresaw historical events in

888-723: A day to consult. In 1982, Danny Jorgensen , a professor of Religious Studies at the University of South Florida offered a spiritual explanation for the popularity of fortune telling. He said that people visit psychics or fortune tellers to gain self-understanding, and knowledge which will lead to personal power or success in some aspect of life. In 1995, Ken Feingold offered a different explanation for why people seek out fortune tellers: We desire to know other people's actions and to resolve our own conflicts regarding decisions to be made and our participation in social groups and economies. ... Divination seems to have emerged from our knowing

999-467: A direct result of human decisions and can therefore potentially exhibit consistent error". Unlike other games offered in a casino, prediction in sporting events can be both logical and consistent. Other more advance models include those based on Bayesian networks, which are causal probabilistic models commonly used for risk analysis and decision support. Based on this kind of mathematical modelling, Constantinou et al., have developed models for predicting

1110-575: A few claim graduate degrees. "They attend movies, watch television, work at regular jobs, shop at K-Mart, sometimes eat at McDonald's, and go to the hospital when they are seriously ill." In 1982, the sociologists Danny L., and Lin Jorgensen found that, "when it is reasonable, [fortune tellers] comply with local laws and purchase a business license." However, in the United States , a variety of local and state laws restrict fortune telling, require

1221-423: A mathematician finds out that historical events (up to some detail) can be theoretically modelled using equations, and then spends years trying to put the theory in practice. The new science of psychohistory founded upon his success can simulate history and extrapolate the present into the future. In Frank Herbert 's sequels to 1965's Dune , his characters are dealing with the repercussions of being able to see

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1332-472: A memory test to ascertain if post-test information would affect it, "failed to produce significant effects" and thus "do not support the existence of psychic ability" of this kind. Psychics are sometimes featured in science fiction and fantasy fiction . Examples of fiction featuring characters with psychic powers include the Star Wars franchise, which features " Force -sensitive" beings who can see into

1443-578: A minimum-variance smoother may be used to recover data of interest from noisy measurements. These techniques rely on one-step-ahead predictors (which minimise the variance of the prediction error ). When the generating models are nonlinear then stepwise linearizations may be applied within Extended Kalman Filter and smoother recursions. However, in nonlinear cases, optimum minimum-variance performance guarantees no longer apply. To use regression analysis for prediction, data are collected on

1554-442: A non-statistical sense, the term "prediction" is often used to refer to an informed guess or opinion . A prediction of this kind might be informed by a predicting person's abductive reasoning , inductive reasoning , deductive reasoning , and experience ; and may be useful—if the predicting person is a knowledgeable person in the field. The Delphi method is a technique for eliciting such expert-judgement-based predictions in

1665-545: A number of books and websites being dedicated to instruction in these methods. Another popular belief is that psychic ability is hereditary, with a psychic parent passing their abilities on to their children. Psychic abilities are common in science fiction , often under the term " psionics ". They may be depicted as innate and heritable, as in Alfred Bester 's The Demolished Man , A. E. van Vogt 's Slan , Anne McCaffrey 's Talents universe series or setting, and

1776-747: A private investigator who specializes in psychic fraud cases. Palmer had previously written articles about Nygaard and the work he was doing. It's apparently difficult to get cases of psychic fraud prosecuted as a crime. Palmer states "when someone reports to law enforcement that they are a victim of this type of fraud, they are often turned away and told it is a civil matter." Palmer goes on to discuss Thomas John and other famous "psychics" who were proven to be frauds. Investigator Ben Radford states that "scammers use various psychological principles to ensnare their prey". Their state of mind, belief in psychic abilities, unhappiness with something happening in their lives and looking for answers. The psychic will instruct

1887-462: A psychic who went by the name of Maha Dev. Marie Jean reported that Dev claimed she was surrounded by "evil spirits" and that "(her) life could be in danger and (her) sons could lose their lives." The initial payment requested was $ 10,000 to remove the spirits, but in subsequent visits Dev indicated that the spirits were "too strong" and more money was needed. In total, the woman paid $ 46,000 before deciding she had been "duped." After Marie Jean reported

1998-459: A terrestrial scale. However, as one of the first tests of general relativity , the theory predicted that large masses such as stars would bend light, in contradiction to accepted theory; this was observed in a 1919 eclipse. Predictive medicine is a field of medicine that entails predicting the probability of disease and instituting preventive measures in order to either prevent the disease altogether or significantly decrease its impact upon

2109-439: A year call Ms. Warwick's friends." In 1994, the psychic counsellor Rosanna Rogers of Cleveland , Ohio, explained to J. Peder Zane that a wide variety of people consulted her: " Couch potatoes aren't the only people seeking the counsel of psychics and astrologers. Clairvoyants have a booming business advising Philadelphia bankers, Hollywood lawyers and CEO 's of Fortune 500 companies... If people knew how many people, especially

2220-417: Is a medical term for predicting the likelihood or expected development of a disease, including whether the signs and symptoms will improve or worsen (and how quickly) or remain stable over time; expectations of quality of life, such as the ability to carry out daily activities; the potential for complications and associated health issues; and the likelihood of survival (including life expectancy). A prognosis

2331-410: Is a person who claims to use powers rooted in parapsychology , such as extrasensory perception (ESP), to identify information hidden from the normal senses , particularly involving telepathy or clairvoyance ; or who performs acts that are apparently inexplicable by natural laws, such as psychokinesis or teleportation . Although many people believe in psychic abilities , the scientific consensus

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2442-505: Is also possible to predict the life time of a material with a mathematical model. In medical science predictive and prognostic biomarkers can be used to predict patient outcomes in response to various treatment or the probability of a clinical event. Established science makes useful predictions which are often extremely reliable and accurate; for example, eclipses are routinely predicted. New theories make predictions which allow them to be disproved by reality. For example, predicting

2553-399: Is asked to find the donkeys of the future king Saul . The role of prophet appeared perennially in ancient cultures. In Egypt , the priests of the sun deity Ra at Memphis acted as seers. In ancient Assyria seers were referred to as nabu , meaning "to call" or "announce". The Delphic Oracle is one of the earliest stories in classical antiquity of prophetic abilities. The Pythia ,

2664-400: Is best known for his book Les Propheties , the first edition of which appeared in 1555. Taken together, his written works are known to have contained at least 6,338 quatrains or prophecies, as well as at least eleven annual calendars. Most of the quatrains deal with disasters, such as plagues, earthquakes, wars, floods, invasions, murders, droughts, and battles – all undated. Nostradamus is

2775-563: Is dismissed by skeptics as being based on pseudoscience , magical thinking and superstition . Common methods used for fortune telling in Europe and the Americas include astromancy , horary astrology , pendulum reading, spirit board reading, tasseography (reading tea leaves in a cup), cartomancy (fortune telling with cards), tarot card reading , crystallomancy (reading of a crystal sphere), and chiromancy (palmistry, reading of

2886-553: Is done through repeatable experiments or observational studies. A scientific theory whose predictions are contradicted by observations and evidence will be rejected. New theories that generate many new predictions can more easily be supported or falsified (see predictive power ). Notions that make no testable predictions are usually considered not to be part of science ( protoscience or nescience ) until testable predictions can be made. Mathematical equations and models , and computer models , are frequently used to describe

2997-445: Is easily dismissed by critics as magical thinking and superstition . Skeptic Bergen Evans suggested that fortune telling is the result of a "naïve selection of something that have happened from a mass of things that haven't, the clever interpretation of ambiguities, or a brazen announcement of the inevitable." Other skeptics claim that fortune telling is nothing more than cold reading . A large amount of fraud has been proven in

3108-418: Is guilty of fortune telling when, for a fee or compensation which he directly or indirectly solicits or receives, he claims or pretends to tell fortunes, or holds himself out as being able, by claimed or pretended use of occult powers, to answer questions or give advice on personal matters or to exercise, influence or affect evil spirits or curses; except that this section does not apply to a person who engages in

3219-506: Is made on the basis of the normal course of the diagnosed disease, the individual's physical and mental condition, the available treatments, and additional factors. A complete prognosis includes the expected duration, function, and description of the course of the disease, such as progressive decline, intermittent crisis, or sudden, unpredictable crisis. A clinical prediction rule or clinical probability assessment specifies how to use medical signs , symptoms , and other findings to estimate

3330-551: Is not predicted, and most of what is predicted does not happen.” The Project confirmed that even when considering the margin of error, it is difficult to come to any other conclusion except that people who claim to see into the future cannot do so with a rate of success better than that of educated guesswork, chance, or luck. In an article reported by Pat Foran in CTV News-Toronto , an Ontario woman, known as Marie Jean, depressed after having to sell her home, began seeing

3441-433: Is related by an individual in a sermon or other public forum. Divination is the attempt to gain insight into a question or situation by way of an occultic standardized process or ritual. It is an integral part of witchcraft and has been used in various forms for thousands of years. Diviners ascertain their interpretations of how a querent should proceed by reading signs, events, or omens , or through alleged contact with

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3552-479: Is some way the fit of the function, thus parameterized, to the data. That is the estimation step. For the prediction step, explanatory variable values that are deemed relevant to future (or current but not yet observed) values of the dependent variable are input to the parameterized function to generate predictions for the dependent variable. An unbiased performance estimate of a model can be obtained on hold-out test sets . The predictions can visually be compared to

3663-416: Is that in the social sciences, "predictors are part of the social context about which they are trying to make a prediction and may influence that context in the process". As a consequence, societal predictions can become self-destructing. For example, a forecast that a large percentage of a population will become HIV infected based on existing trends may cause more people to avoid risky behavior and thus reduce

3774-864: Is that there is no proof of the existence of such powers, and describes the practice as pseudoscience . Psychics encompass people in a variety of roles. Some are theatrical performers, such as stage magicians , who use various techniques, e.g. prestidigitation , cold reading , and hot reading , to produce the appearance of such abilities for entertainment purposes. A large industry and network exist whereby people advertised as psychics provide advice and counsel to clients . Some famous psychics include Edgar Cayce , Ingo Swann , Peter Hurkos , Janet Lee , Miss Cleo , John Edward , Sylvia Browne , and Tyler Henry . Psychic powers are asserted by psychic detectives and in practices such as psychic archaeology and even psychic surgery . Critics attribute psychic powers to intentional trickery or to self- delusion . In 1988

3885-688: Is then combined with historical facts to provide a revised prediction for future match outcomes. The initial results based on these modelling practices are encouraging since they have demonstrated consistent profitability against published market odds. Nowadays sport betting is a huge business; there are many websites (systems) alongside betting sites, which give tips or predictions for future games. Some of these prediction websites (tipsters) are based on human predictions, but others on computer software sometimes called prediction robots or bots. Prediction bots can use different amount of data and algorithms and because of that their accuracy may vary. These days, with

3996-879: Is to teach and practice spiritual freedom, which means you have your own spiritual guidance, which I can help you get in touch with." In the African American community, where many people practice a form of folk magic called hoodoo or rootworking, a fortune-telling session or "reading" for a client may be followed by practical guidance in spell-casting and Christian prayer , through a process called "magical coaching". In addition to sharing and explaining their visions, fortune tellers can also act like counselors by discussing and offering advice about their clients' problems. They want their clients to exercise their own willpower. Some fortune tellers support themselves entirely on their divination business; others hold down one or more jobs, and their second jobs may or may not relate to

4107-493: The Assyrians , they lost respect and reverence during the rise of Reason in the 17th and 18th centuries. With the rise of commercialism, "the sale of occult practices [adapted to survive] in the larger society," according to sociologists Danny L. and Lin Jorgensen. Ken Feingold , writer of "Interactive Art as Divination as a Vending Machine," stated that with the invention of money, fortune telling became "a private service,

4218-745: The Sea Life Aquarium at Oberhausen used to predict the outcome of matches played by the Germany national football team . There is opposition to fortune telling in Christianity , Islam , Baháʼísm and Judaism based on scriptural prohibitions against divination. Terms for one who claims to see into the future include fortune teller , crystal-gazer , spaewife , seer , soothsayer , sibyl , clairvoyant , and prophet ; related terms which might include this among other abilities are oracle , augur , and visionary . Fortune telling

4329-421: The U.S. National Academy of Sciences gave a report on the subject and concluded there is "no scientific justification from research conducted over a period of 130 years for the existence of parapsychological phenomena ". A study attempted to repeat recently reported parapsychological experiments that appeared to support the existence of precognition . Attempts to repeat the results, which involved performance on

4440-401: The failure mechanism causing the failure. Accurate prediction and forecasting are very difficult in some areas, such as natural disasters , pandemics , demography , population dynamics and meteorology . For example, it is possible to predict the occurrence of solar cycles , but their exact timing and magnitude is much more difficult (see picture to right). In materials engineering it

4551-466: The 16th century. In addition to the belief that some historical figures were endowed with a predisposition to psychic experiences, some psychic abilities were thought to be available to everyone on occasion. For example, the belief in prophetic dreams was common and persistent in many ancient cultures. In the mid-nineteenth century, Modern Spiritualism became prominent in the United States and

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4662-509: The 19th and 20th century, methods of divination from non-Western cultures, such as the I Ching , were also adopted as methods of fortune telling in western popular culture. An example of divination or fortune telling as purely an item of pop culture, with little or no vestiges of belief in the occult, would be the Magic 8-Ball sold as a toy by Mattel , or Paul the Octopus , an octopus at

4773-546: The Greek , were believed to have access to information that gave them an edge. Information ranged from personal issues, such as gambling or drinking to undisclosed injuries; anything that may affect the performance of a player on the field. Recent times have changed the way sports are predicted. Predictions now typically consist of two distinct approaches: Situational plays and statistical based models. Situational plays are much more difficult to measure because they usually involve

4884-460: The HIV infection rate, invalidating the forecast (which might have remained correct if it had not been publicly known). Or, a prediction that cybersecurity will become a major issue may cause organizations to implement more security cybersecurity measures, thus limiting the issue. In politics it is common to attempt to predict the outcome of elections via political forecasting techniques (or assess

4995-569: The Pythia's state of inspiration. One of the most enduring historical references to what some consider to be psychic ability is the prophecies of Michel de Nostredame (1503–1566), often Latinized to Nostradamus, published during the French Renaissance period. Nostradamus was a French apothecary and seer who wrote collections of prophecies that have since become famous worldwide and have rarely been out of print since his death. He

5106-460: The Rings , many of the characters possess an awareness of events extending into the future, sometimes as prophecies, sometimes as more-or-less vague 'feelings'. The character Galadriel , in addition, employs a water "mirror" to show images, sometimes of possible future events. In some of Philip K. Dick 's stories, mutant humans called precogs can foresee the future (ranging from days to years). In

5217-554: The U.S. government to investigate remote viewing . Critics such as Ed J. Gracely say that this evidence is not sufficient for acceptance, partly because the intrinsic probability of psychic phenomena is very small. Critics such as Ray Hyman and the National Science Foundation suggest that parapsychology has methodological flaws that can explain the experimental results that parapsychologists attribute to paranormal explanations, and various critics have classed

5328-549: The United Kingdom. The movement's distinguishing feature was the belief that the spirits of the dead could be contacted by mediums to lend insight to the living. The movement was fueled in part by anecdotes of psychic powers. One such person believed to have extraordinary abilities was Daniel Dunglas Home , who gained fame during the Victorian period for his reported ability to levitate to various heights and speak to

5439-408: The aforedescribed conduct as part of a show or exhibition solely for the purpose of entertainment or amusement. Lawmakers who wrote this statute acknowledged that fortune tellers do not restrict themselves to "a show or exhibition solely for the purpose of entertainment or amusement" and that people will continue to seek out fortune tellers even though fortune tellers operate in violation of the law. In

5550-637: The analysis of the predictions found that psychics were correct 11% of the time, wrong 35% of the time, and that some predictions were too vague to characterize (19%) or the predicted outcome was so obvious it was to be expected (15%). Two percent of the predictions were unable to be categorized. The main conclusions of the Great Australian Psychic Prediction Project were: “Psychics are appallingly bad at predicting future events.” “Most predictions were too vague, expected, or simply wrong.” “Most of what happens

5661-548: The ancients, prediction, prophesy, and poetry were often intertwined. Prophecies were given in verse, and a word for poet in Latin is “vates” or prophet. Both poets and prophets claimed to be inspired by forces outside themselves. In contemporary cultures, theological revelation and poetry are typically seen as distinct and often even as opposed to each other. Yet the two still are often understood together as symbiotic in their origins, aims, and purposes. Psychic A psychic

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5772-429: The audience to be non-responsive. Magicians such as James Randi , Ian Rowland and Derren Brown have demonstrated techniques and results similar to those of popular psychics, but they present physical and psychological explanations as opposed to paranormal ones. In January 2008 the results of a study using neuroimaging were published. To provide what are purported to be the most favorable experimental conditions,

5883-436: The cards have significant meanings on their lives. However, there is a lack of evidence to support why such things, such as the stars, would have any implications on our lives. Additionally, fortune-telling readings and predictions made by horoscopes, for example, are often general enough to apply to anyone. In cold reading, for example, readers often begin by stating general descriptions and continuing to make specifics based on

5994-477: The client not to tell their friends or family as they know they may be warned away from the psychic. With curse removal, the psychic may say that the magic will not work or get worse if they do tell anyone about their involvement with the psychic. The con games from psychics, according to Radford, can "play out over the course of weeks, months, or even years." The psychic is playing the long game and looking to extract as much money as possible. Radford claims that when

6105-429: The course of 12 years, Saunders and then Saunders and his international team of skeptics - Michelle Bijkersma, Kelly Burke, Susan Gerbic , Adrienne Hill, Louis Hillman, Wendy Hughes, Paula Lauterbach, Dr. Angie Mattke, Rob Palmer, and Leonard Tramiel - searched through Australian published media for individuals making psychic or otherwise paranormal predictions. The goal of the Great Australian Psychic Prediction Project

6216-399: The cultural expectations of their clientele. In the United States and Canada, among clients of European ancestry, palmistry is popular and, as with astrology and tarot card reading, advice is generally given about specific problems besetting the client. Non-religious spiritual guidance may also be offered. An American clairvoyant by the name of Catherine Adams has written, "My philosophy

6327-594: The dead. As the Spiritualist movement grew, other comparable groups arose, including the Theosophical Society , which was co-founded in 1875 by Helena Blavatsky (1831–1891). Theosophy coupled spiritualist elements with Eastern mysticism and was influential in the early 20th century, later influencing the New Age movement during the 1970s. Blavatsky herself claimed numerous psychic powers. By

6438-572: The descendants of the Oracle of Delphi , their visions also contrast their personalities (Cara is a Goth that sees only positive visions, while Sara is always in a good mood despite only seeing negative visions). Parapsychological research has attempted to use random number generators to test for psychokinesis , mild sensory deprivation in the Ganzfeld experiment to test for extrasensory perception , and research trials conducted under contract by

6549-400: The development of artificial intelligence, it has become possible to create more consistent predictions using statistics. Especially in the field of sports competitions, the impact of artificial intelligence has created a noticeable consistency rate. On the science of AI soccer predictions , an initiative called soccerseer.com, one of the most successful systems in this sense, manages to predict

6660-505: The field as pseudoscience . This has largely been due to a lack of replication of results by independent experimenters. The evidence presented for psychic phenomena is not sufficiently verified for scientific acceptance, and there exist many non-paranormal alternative explanations for claimed instances of psychic events. Parapsychologists , who generally believe that there is some evidence for psychic ability, disagree with critics who believe that no psychic ability exists and that many of

6771-424: The field is known as predictive analytics . In many applications, such as time series analysis, it is possible to estimate the models that generate the observations. If models can be expressed as transfer functions or in terms of state-space parameters then smoothed, filtered and predicted data estimates can be calculated. If the underlying generating models are linear then a minimum-variance Kalman filter and

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6882-461: The future and move objects telekinetically, along with Dungeons & Dragons and some of the works of Stephen King , amongst many others. The word "psychic" is derived from the Greek word psychikos ("of the mind" or "mental"), and refers in part to the human mind or psyche (ex. "psychic turmoil"). The Greek word also means "soul". In Greek mythology , the maiden Psyche was the deification of

6993-413: The future. These people were known as seers or prophets , and in later times as clairvoyants (French word meaning "clear sight" or "clear seeing") and psychics. Seers formed a functionary role in early civilization, often serving as advisors, priests, and judges. A number of examples are included in biblical accounts. The book of 1 Samuel (Chapter 9) illustrates one such functionary task when Samuel

7104-497: The future. These means of prediction have not been proven by scientific experiments. In literature, vision and prophecy are literary devices used to present a possible timeline of future events. They can be distinguished by vision referring to what an individual sees happen. The book of Revelation , in the New Testament , thus uses vision as a literary device in this regard. It is also prophecy or prophetic literature when it

7215-520: The ground truth in a parity plot . In science, a prediction is a rigorous, often quantitative, statement, forecasting what would be observed under specific conditions; for example, according to theories of gravity , if an apple fell from a tree it would be seen to move towards the center of the Earth with a specified and constant acceleration . The scientific method is built on testing statements that are logical consequences of scientific theories. This

7326-529: The human soul . The word derivation of the Latin psȳchē is from the Greek psȳchḗ , literally "breath", derivative of psȳ́chein , to breathe or to blow (hence, to live). French astronomer and spiritualist Camille Flammarion is credited as having first used the word psychic, while it was later introduced to the English language by Edward William Cox in the 1870s. Elaborate systems of divination and fortune-telling date back to ancient times. Perhaps

7437-421: The incident to CTV News, CTV News contacted the psychic. While Dev did not admit to knowing the woman, the money was refunded in full the next day. Falling for a psychic scam can result in a loss of one's entire life savings. In an example given in an article by Rob Palmer a woman gave a psychic $ 41,642 over a period of 10 weeks. The woman had contacted Palmer for help, who put her in contact with Bob Nygaard ,

7548-547: The inevitability of death. The idea is clear—we know that our time is limited and that we want things in our lives to happen in accord with our wishes. Realizing that our wishes have little power, we have sought technologies for gaining knowledge of the future... gain power over our own [lives]. Ultimately, the reasons a person consults a diviner or fortune teller depend on cultural and personal expectations. Traditional fortune tellers vary in methodology, generally using techniques long established in their cultures and thus meeting

7659-416: The instances of more popular psychic phenomena such as mediumism , can be attributed to non-paranormal techniques such as cold reading , hot reading , or even self- delusion . Cold reading techniques would include psychics using flattery, intentionally making descriptions, statements or predictions about a person vague and ambiguous, and surreptitiously moving on to another prediction when the psychic deems

7770-547: The late twentieth century, psychics were commonly associated with New Age culture. Psychic readings and advertising for psychics were common from the 1960s on, as readings were offered for a fee and given in settings such as over the phone, in a home, or at psychic fairs. In a 1990 survey of members of the National Academy of Sciences, only 2% of the respondents thought that extrasensory perception had been scientifically demonstrated, with another 2% thinking that

7881-404: The licensing or bonding of fortune tellers, or make necessary the use of terminology that avoids the term "fortune teller" in favor of terms such as "spiritual advisor" or "psychic consultant." There are also laws that outright forbid the practice in certain districts. For instance, fortune telling is a class B misdemeanor in the state of New York . Under New York State law, S 165.35: A person

7992-436: The most widely known system of early civilization fortune-telling was astrology , where practitioners believed the relative positions of celestial bodies could lend insight into people's lives and even predict their future circumstances. Some fortune-tellers were said to be able to make predictions without the use of these elaborate systems (or in conjunction with them), through some sort of direct apprehension or vision of

8103-441: The motivation of a team. Dan Gordon, noted handicapper, wrote "Without an emotional edge in a game in addition to value in a line, I won't put my money on it". These types of plays consist of: Betting on the home underdog, betting against Monday Night winners if they are a favorite next week, betting the underdog in "look ahead" games etc. As situational plays become more widely known they become less useful because they will impact

8214-418: The occupation of divining. In 1982, Danny L., and Lin Jorgensen found that "while there is considerable variation among [these secondary] occupations, [part-time fortune tellers] are over-represented in human service fields: counseling, social work, teaching, health care." The same authors, making a limited survey of North American diviners, found that the majority of fortune tellers are married with children, and

8325-412: The order of 1) of relevant past data points from which to project the future. In addition, it is generally believed that stock market prices already take into account all the information available to predict the future, and subsequent movements must therefore be the result of unforeseen events. Consequently, it is extremely difficult for a stock investor to anticipate or predict a stock market boom , or

8436-436: The outcome of association football matches. What makes these models interesting is that, apart from taking into consideration relevant historical data, they also incorporate all these vague subjective factors, like availability of key players, team fatigue, team motivation and so on. They provide the user with the ability to include their best guesses about things that there are no hard facts available. This additional information

8547-670: The palms). The last three have traditional associations in the popular mind with the Roma and Sinti people. Another form of fortune telling, sometimes called "reading" or "spiritual consultation", does not rely on specific devices or methods, but rather the practitioner gives the client advice and predictions which are said to have come from spirits or in visions: Western fortune tellers typically attempt predictions on matters such as future romantic, financial, and childbearing prospects. Many fortune tellers will also give "character readings". These may use numerology , graphology , palmistry (if

8658-414: The past and future behaviour of a process within the boundaries of that model. In some cases the probability of an outcome, rather than a specific outcome, can be predicted, for example in much of quantum physics . In microprocessors , branch prediction permits avoidance of pipeline emptying at branch instructions . In engineering , possible failure modes are predicted and avoided by correcting

8769-491: The patient (such as by preventing mortality or limiting morbidity ). While different prediction methodologies exist, such as genomics , proteomics , and cytomics , the most fundamental way to predict future disease is based on genetics. Although proteomics and cytomics allow for the early detection of disease, much of the time those detect biological markers that exist because a disease process has already started. However, comprehensive genetic testing (such as through

8880-993: The phenomena happened sometimes. Asked about research in the field, 22% thought that it should be discouraged, 63% that it should be allowed but not encouraged, and 10% that it should be encouraged; neuroscientists were the most hostile to parapsychology of all the specialties. A survey of the beliefs of the general United States population about paranormal topics was conducted by The Gallup Organization in 2005. The survey found that 41 percent of those polled believed in extrasensory perception and 26 percent believed in clairvoyance . 31 percent of those surveyed indicated that they believe in telepathy or psychic communication. A poll of 439 college students conducted in 2006 by researchers Bryan Farha of Oklahoma City University and Gary Steward of University of Central Oklahoma , suggested that college seniors and graduate students were more likely to believe in psychic phenomena than college freshmen. Twenty-three percent of college freshmen expressed

8991-555: The popularity of politicians ) through the use of opinion polls . Prediction games have been used by many corporations and governments to learn about the most likely outcome of future events. Predictions have often been made, from antiquity until the present, by using paranormal or supernatural means such as prophecy or by observing omens . Methods including water divining , astrology , numerology , fortune telling , interpretation of dreams , and many other forms of divination , have been used for millennia to attempt to predict

9102-417: The possible futures and select amongst them. Herbert sees this as a trap of stagnation, and his characters follow a so-called " Golden Path " out of the trap. In Ursula K. Le Guin 's The Left Hand of Darkness , the humanoid inhabitants of planet Gethen have mastered the art of prophecy and routinely produce data on past, present or future events on request. In this story, this was a minor plot device. For

9213-441: The practice of fortune telling. Fortune telling and how it works raises many critical questions. For example, fortune-telling occurs through various methods such as psychic readings and tarot cards. Similarly, these methods are largely based on random phenomena. For example, astrologers believe that the movement of stars in the sky can have implications on one's life. In the case of tarot cards, people believe that images displayed on

9324-424: The prediction can be undertaken within any of the several approaches to statistical inference. Indeed, one possible description of statistics is that it provides a means of transferring knowledge about a sample of a population to the whole population, and to other related populations, which is not necessarily the same as prediction over time. When information is transferred across time, often to specific points in time,

9435-588: The prediction is less prominent than the concept of suggestion , spiritual or practical advisory or affirmation . Historically, Pliny the Elder describes use of the crystal ball in the 1st century CE by soothsayers ( "crystallum orbis" , later written in Medieval Latin by scribes as orbuculum ). Contemporary Western images of fortune telling grow out of folkloristic reception of Renaissance magic , specifically associated with Romani people. During

9546-481: The priestess presiding over the Oracle of Apollo at Delphi , was believed to be able to deliver prophecies inspired by Apollo during rituals beginning in the 8th century BC. It is often said that the Pythia delivered oracles in a frenzied state induced by vapors rising from the ground, and that she spoke gibberish, believed to be the voice of Apollo, which priests reshaped into the enigmatic prophecies preserved in Greek literature. Other scholars believe records from

9657-441: The probability of a specific disease or clinical outcome. Mathematical models of stock market behaviour (and economic behaviour in general) are also unreliable in predicting future behaviour. Among other reasons, this is because economic events may span several years, and the world is changing over a similar time frame, thus invalidating the relevance of past observations to the present. Thus there are an extremely small number (of

9768-618: The process is known as forecasting . Forecasting usually requires time series methods, while prediction is often performed on cross-sectional data . Statistical techniques used for prediction include regression and its various sub-categories such as linear regression , generalized linear models ( logistic regression , Poisson regression , Probit regression ), etc. In case of forecasting, autoregressive moving average models and vector autoregression models can be utilized. When these and/or related, generalized set of regression or machine learning methods are deployed in commercial usage,

9879-761: The proper mental discipline , known as kything in the former work. Popular movies include The Initiation of Sarah . Psychic characters are also common in superhero comics , for instance Jean Grey , Professor X and Emma Frost as well as many others from the Marvel Comics' X-Men . More characters include the characters Raven Baxter and Booker Baxter from the Disney Channel Original Series That's So Raven and its spin-off Raven's Home . The Disney Channel Original Series American Dragon: Jake Long features recurring characters Cara and Sara, who are twin psychics claimed to be

9990-527: The reactions they receive from the person whose life they are predicting. The tendency for people to deem general descriptions as being representative to themselves has been termed the Barnum effect and has been studied by psychologists for many years. Nonetheless, even with a lack of evidence supporting the various methods of fortune-telling and the many frauds that have occurred by psychic readers, amongst others, fortune-telling continues to become popular around

10101-436: The results of football competitions with up to 75% accuracy with artificial intelligence. Prediction in the non-economic social sciences differs from the natural sciences and includes multiple alternative methods such as trend projection, forecasting, scenario-building and Delphi surveys. The oil company Shell is particularly well known for its scenario-building activities. One reason for the peculiarity of societal prediction

10212-519: The risk(s) can be mitigated . For example, in insurance an actuary would use a life table (which incorporates the historical experience of mortality rates and sometimes an estimate of future trends) to project life expectancy . Predicting the outcome of sporting events is a business which has grown in popularity in recent years. Handicappers predict the outcome of games using a variety of mathematical formulas, simulation models or qualitative analysis . Early, well known sports bettors, such as Jimmy

10323-468: The role of fortune telling in society, Ronald H. Isaacs, an American rabbi and author, opined, "Since time immemorial humans have longed to learn that which the future holds for them. Thus, in ancient civilization, and even today with fortune telling as a true profession, humankind continues to be curious about its future, both out of sheer curiosity as well as out of desire to better prepare for it." Although 5000 years ago, soothsayers were prized advisers to

10434-561: The states of Minnesota , North Carolina , Oklahoma , Pennsylvania , and Wisconsin , all forms of fortune-telling are illegal. In Australia , fortune-telling is illegal in South Australia and the Northern Territory . Saudi Arabia also bans the practice outright, considering fortune telling to be sorcery and thus contrary to Islamic teaching and jurisprudence . It has been punishable by death. Fortune telling

10545-491: The story called The Golden Man , an exceptional mutant can predict the future to an indefinite range (presumably up to his death), and thus becomes completely non-human, an animal that follows the predicted paths automatically. Precogs also play an essential role in another of Dick's stories, The Minority Report , which was turned into a film by Steven Spielberg in 2002. In the Foundation series by Isaac Asimov ,

10656-406: The strongest evidence yet obtained against the existence of paranormal mental phenomena." James Alcock had cautioned the researchers against the wording of said statement. A detailed study of Sylvia Browne predictions about missing persons and murder cases found that despite her repeated claims to be more than 85% correct, "Browne has not even been mostly correct in a single case". Concerning

10767-517: The structure of crystals at the atomic level is a current research challenge. In the early 20th century the scientific consensus was that there existed an absolute frame of reference , which was given the name luminiferous ether . The existence of this absolute frame was deemed necessary for consistency with the established idea that the speed of light is constant. The famous Michelson–Morley experiment demonstrated that predictions deduced from this concept were not borne out in reality, thus disproving

10878-508: The study included appropriate emotional stimuli and had participants who are biologically or emotionally related, such as twins. The experiment was designed to produce positive results if telepathy , clairvoyance or precognition occurred, but despite this, no distinguishable neuronal responses were found between psychic stimuli and non-psychic stimuli, while variations in the same stimuli showed anticipated effects on patterns of brain activation. The researchers concluded that "These findings are

10989-499: The subject is present), and astrology . In contemporary Western culture , it appears that women consult fortune tellers more than men. Some women have maintained long relationships with their personal readers. Telephone consultations with psychics grew in popularity through the 1990s, and by the 2010s additional contact methods such as email and videoconferencing also became available, but none of these have completely replaced traditional in-person methods of consultation. Discussing

11100-445: The television psychics, James Underdown states that testing psychics in a studio setting is difficult as there are too many areas to control: the psychic could be getting help from anyone on the set. The editor controls everything; they can make a psychic look superior or ridiculous depending on direction from the producer. In an Independent Investigations Group exposé of John Edward and James Van Praagh they discovered that what

11211-701: The television series Babylon 5 . Another recurring trope is the conveyance of psychic power through psychoactive drugs , as in the Dune novels and indirectly in the Scanners films, as well as the ghosts in the StarCraft franchise. Somewhat differently, in Madeleine L'Engle 's A Wind in the Door and Robert A. Heinlein 's Stranger in a Strange Land , psychic abilities may be achieved by any human who learns

11322-403: The theory of an absolute frame of reference. The special theory of relativity was proposed by Einstein as an explanation for the seeming inconsistency between the constancy of the speed of light and the non-existence of a special, preferred or absolute frame of reference. Albert Einstein 's theory of general relativity could not easily be tested as it did not produce any effects observable on

11433-423: The time indicate that the Pythia spoke intelligibly, and gave prophecies in her own voice. The Pythia was a position served by a succession of women probably selected from amongst a guild of priestesses of the temple. The last recorded response was given in 393 AD, when the emperor Theodosius I ordered pagan temples to cease operation. Recent geological investigations raise the possibility that ethylene gas caused

11544-490: The use of DNA arrays or full genome sequencing ) allows for the estimation of disease risk years to decades before any disease even exists, or even whether a healthy fetus is at higher risk for developing a disease in adolescence or adulthood. Individuals who are more susceptible to disease in the future can be offered lifestyle advice or medication with the aim of preventing the predicted illness. Prognosis ( Greek : πρόγνωσις "fore-knowing, foreseeing"; pl. : prognoses)

11655-559: The use of his Winval system, which evaluates free agents. Brian Burke , a former Navy fighter pilot turned sports statistician, has published his results of using regression analysis to predict the outcome of NFL games. Ken Pomeroy is widely accepted as a leading authority on college basketball statistics. His website includes his College Basketball Ratings, a tempo based statistics system. Some statisticians have become very famous for having successful prediction systems. Dare wrote "the effective odds for sports betting and horse racing are

11766-422: The variable that is to be predicted, called the dependent variable or response variable, and on one or more variables whose values are hypothesized to influence it, called independent variables or explanatory variables. A functional form , often linear, is hypothesized for the postulated causal relationship, and the parameters of the function are estimated from the data—that is, are chosen so as to optimize

11877-505: The very rich and powerful ones, went to psychics, their jaws would drop through the floor." Rogers "claims to have 4,000 names in her rolodex ." Janet Lee , also known as the Greenwich psychic, claims that her clientele often included Wall Street brokers who were looking for any advantage they could get. Her usual fee was around $ 150 for a session but some clients would pay between $ 2,000 and $ 9,000 per month to have her available 24 hours

11988-559: The way the line is set. The widespread use of technology has brought with it more modern sports betting systems . These systems are typically algorithms and simulation models based on regression analysis . Jeff Sagarin , a sports statistician, has brought attention to sports by having the results of his models published in USA Today. He is currently paid as a consultant by the Dallas Mavericks for his advice on lineups and

12099-422: The world. There are many reasons for the appealing nature of fortune-telling such as that people often experience stress when there is uncertainty and thus seek to gain deeper insight into their lives. Prediction Future events are necessarily uncertain , so guaranteed accurate information about the future is impossible. Prediction can be useful to assist in making plans about possible developments. In

12210-669: Was actually said on the tape day, and what was broadcast to the public were "substantially different in the accuracy. They're getting rid of the wrong guesses... Once you pull back the curtain and see how it's done, it's not impressive at all." Richard Saunders , Chief Investigator for the Australian Skeptics , and producer and presenter of The Skeptic Zone podcast sought to answer the question “Can self-proclaimed psychics predict unlikely future events with any greater accuracy than chance?” To answer that question he launched "The Great Australian Psychic Prediction Project". Over

12321-485: Was to collect and then vet the accuracy of every published psychic prediction in Australia since the year 2000. The team analyzed over 3800 predictions made by 207 psychics over the years 2000 to 2020. While a few of the psychic predictions were about events outside of Australia, the predictions primarily focused on celebrities, scandals, natural disasters, weather patterns, sports, and real estate trends. The results of

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