Condorcet's jury theorem is a political science theorem about the relative probability of a given group of individuals arriving at a correct decision. The theorem was first expressed by the Marquis de Condorcet in his 1785 work Essay on the Application of Analysis to the Probability of Majority Decisions .
57-535: An organization or organisation ( Commonwealth English ; see spelling differences ), is an entity —such as a company , or corporation or an institution ( formal organization ), or an association —comprising one or more people and having a particular purpose. The word in English is derived from the Spanish organisation, which itself is derived from the medieval Latin organizationem and its root organum
114-399: A certain task can be fulfilled through a system of coordinated division of labor . Economic approaches to organizations also take the division of labor as a starting point. The division of labor allows for (economies of) specialization . Increasing specialization necessitates coordination. From an economic point of view, markets and organizations are alternative coordination mechanisms for
171-480: A collective actor?). By coordinated and planned cooperation of the elements, the organization is able to solve tasks that lie beyond the abilities of the single element. The price paid by the elements is the limitation of the degrees of freedom of the elements. Advantages of organizations are enhancement (more of the same), addition (combination of different features), and extension. Disadvantages can be inertness (through coordination) and loss of interaction . Among
228-490: A correct majority decision P ( n , p ), when the individual probability p is close to 1/2 grows linearly in terms of p − 1/2. For n voters each one having probability p of deciding correctly and for odd n (where there are no possible ties): where and the asymptotic approximation in terms of n is very accurate. The expansion is only in odd powers and c 3 < 0 {\displaystyle c_{3}<0} . In simple terms, this says that when
285-463: A correct vote (however correctness is defined). The problem is that if the average member is subsequently worse than a roll of dice, the committee's decisions grow worse, not better; therefore, staffing is crucial. Parliamentary procedure, such as Robert's Rules of Order , helps prevent committees from engaging in lengthy discussions without reaching decisions. This organizational structure promotes internal competition . Inefficient components of
342-444: A decision by majority vote . One of the two outcomes of the vote is correct , and each voter has an independent probability p of voting for the correct decision. The theorem asks how many voters we should include in the group. The result depends on whether p is greater than or less than 1/2: Since Condorcet, many other researchers have proved various other jury theorems , relaxing some or all of Condorcet's assumptions. To avoid
399-476: A group of peers who decide as a group, perhaps by voting. The difference between a jury and a committee is that the members of the committee are usually assigned to perform or lead further actions after the group comes to a decision, whereas members of a jury come to a decision. In common law countries, legal juries render decisions of guilt, liability, and quantify damages; juries are also used in athletic contests, book awards, and similar activities. Sometimes
456-407: A major portion of his waking hours working for organizations. His need to identify with a community that provides security, protection, maintenance, and a feeling of belonging continues unchanged from prehistoric times. This need is met by the informal organization and its emergent, or unofficial, leaders. Leaders emerge from within the structure of the informal organization. Their personal qualities,
513-416: A manager may be confronted by an emergent leader who can challenge his role in the organization and reduce it to that of a figurehead. However, only the authority of position has the backing of formal sanctions. It follows that whoever wields personal influence and power can legitimize this only by gaining a formal position in the hierarchy, with commensurate authority. An organization that is established as
570-476: A means for achieving defined objectives has been referred to as a formal organization . Its design specifies how goals are subdivided and reflected in subdivisions of the organization. Divisions, departments, sections, positions, jobs , and tasks make up this work structure . Thus, the formal organization is expected to behave impersonally in regard to relationships with clients or with its members. According to Weber's definition, entry and subsequent advancement
627-425: A narrow version of institutions or represent a cluster of institutions; the two are distinct in the sense that organizations contain internal institutions (that govern interactions between the members of the organizations). The study of organizations includes a focus on optimising organizational structure . According to management science , most human organizations fall roughly into four types: These consist of
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#1732757163063684-417: A number of disciplines, such as sociology , economics , political science , psychology , management , and organizational communication . The broader analysis of organizations is commonly referred to as organizational structure , organizational studies , organizational behavior , or organization analysis. A number of different perspectives exist, some of which are compatible: Sociology can be defined as
741-465: A selection committee functions like a jury. In the Middle Ages, juries in continental Europe were used to determine the law according to consensus among local notables. Committees are often the most reliable way to make decisions. Condorcet's jury theorem proved that if the average member votes better than a roll of dice, then adding more members increases the number of majorities that can come to
798-640: A sequence ( p i ) i ∈ N {\displaystyle (p_{i})_{i\in \mathbb {N} }} ), will the thesis of the CJT hold? The answer is no. More precisely, if a random sequence of p i {\displaystyle p_{i}} is taken following an unbiased distribution that does not favor competence, p i > 1 / 2 {\displaystyle p_{i}>1/2} , or incompetence, p i < 1 / 2 {\displaystyle p_{i}<1/2} , then
855-509: Is p . The probability of an incorrect decision, q , is the opposite of p , i.e. 1 − p . The power notation, i.e. p x {\displaystyle p^{x}} is a shorthand for x multiplications of p . Committee or jury accuracies can be easily estimated by using this approach in computer spreadsheets or programs. As an example, let us take the simplest case of n = 3, p = 0.8. We need to show that 3 people have higher than 0.8 chance of being right. Indeed: Asymptotics
912-668: Is "functional" and assures that each type of expert in the organization is well-trained, and measured by a boss who is a super-expert in the same field. The other direction is "executive" and tries to get projects completed using the experts. Projects might be organized by products, regions, customer types, or some other schemes. As an example, a company might have an individual with overall responsibility for products X and Y, and another individual with overall responsibility for engineering, quality control, etc. Therefore, subordinates responsible for quality control of project X will have two reporting lines. The United States aerospace industries were
969-427: Is a body that operates in both the public sector and the private sector simultaneously, fulfilling public duties and developing commercial market activities. A voluntary association is an organization consisting of volunteers. Such organizations may be able to operate without legal formalities, depending on jurisdiction, including informal clubs or coordinating bodies with a goal in mind which they may express in
1026-472: Is a stronger form of influence because it reflects a person's ability to enforce action through the control of a means of punishment. As most organizations operate through a mix of formal and informal mechanisms, organization science scholars have paid attention to the type of interplay between formal and informal organizations. On the one hand, some have argued that formal and informal organizations operate as substitutes as one type of organization would decrease
1083-451: Is also used in ensemble learning in the field of machine learning . An ensemble method combines the predictions of many individual classifiers by majority voting. Assuming that each of the individual classifiers predict with slightly greater than 50% accuracy and their predictions are independent, then the ensemble of their predictions will be far greater than their individual predictive scores. Many political theorists and philosophers use
1140-410: Is by merit or seniority. Each employee receives a salary and enjoys a degree of tenure that safeguards him from the arbitrary influence of superiors or of powerful clients. The higher his position in the hierarchy, the greater his presumed expertise in adjudicating problems that may arise in the course of the work carried out at lower levels of the organization. It is this bureaucratic structure that forms
1197-470: Is in the process of developing) its own standards of usage, often under the influence of local languages. These dialects are sometimes referred to as New Englishes (McArthur, p. 36); most of them inherited non-rhoticity from Southern British English. Several dialects of West African English exist, with a lot of regional variation and some influence from indigenous languages. West African English tends to be syllable-timed , and its phoneme inventory
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#17327571630631254-544: Is increasingly being used in the home as the first language. Small communities of native English speakers can be found in Zimbabwe , Botswana , and Namibia ; the dialects spoken are similar to native South African English . Prior to Togo 's admission at the 2022 Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting , Togolese Foreign Minister Robert Dussey said that he expected Commonwealth membership to provide opportunities for Togolese citizens to learn English , and remarked that
1311-461: Is much simpler than that of Received Pronunciation ; this sometimes affects mutual intelligibility with native varieties of English. A distinctive North African English , often with significant influences from Bantu languages such as Swahili , is spoken in countries such as Kenya or Tanzania , particularly in Nairobi and other cities where there is an expanding middle class, for whom English
1368-567: Is the product of several waves of immigration and settlement, from Britain, Ireland, France, the United States, and around the world, over a period of more than two centuries. Modern Canadian English has taken significant vocabulary and spelling from the shared political and social institutions of Commonwealth countries. Caribbean English is influenced by the English-based Creole varieties spoken, but they are not one and
1425-425: Is usually framed by formal membership and form (institutional rules). Sociology distinguishes the term organization into planned formal and unplanned informal (i.e. spontaneously formed) organizations. Sociology analyses organizations in the first line from an institutional perspective. In this sense, the organization is an enduring arrangement of elements. These elements and their actions are determined by rules so that
1482-446: Is “The Calculus of Approximations”. It is used to solve hard problems that cannot be solved exactly and to provide simpler forms of complicated results, from early results like Taylor's and Stirling's formulas to the prime number theorem. An important topic in the study of asymptotic is asymptotic distribution which is a probability distribution that is in a sense the "limiting" distribution of a sequence of distributions. The probability of
1539-517: The 18th century, with the colonisation of Australasia and South Africa. Australian English and New Zealand English are closely related to each other and share some similarities with South African English (though it has unique influences from indigenous African languages, and Dutch influences it inherited along with the development of Afrikaans from Dutch). Canadian English contains elements of British English and American English , as well as many Canadianisms and some French influences. It
1596-520: The Commonwealth of Nations The use of the English language in current and former Commonwealth countries was largely inherited from British colonisation , with some exceptions. English serves as the medium of inter-Commonwealth relations and the language forms part of the common culture of the Commonwealth . Commonwealth English refers to English as practised in the Commonwealth;
1653-445: The Commonwealth, although comparatively very few speakers of Indian English are first-language speakers. The same is true of English spoken in other parts of South Asia , e.g. Pakistani English , Sri Lankan English , Bangladeshi English and Myanmar English . South Asian English phonology is highly variable; stress, rhythm and intonation are generally different from those of native varieties. There are also several peculiarities at
1710-671: The Commonwealth. Written English in the current and former Commonwealth generally favours British English spelling as opposed to American English , with some exceptions, particularly in Canada, where there are strong influences from neighbouring American English. Few Commonwealth countries besides Australia, Canada, South Africa, and the United Kingdom have produced their own English dictionaries and style guides , and may rely on those produced in other countries. Southern Hemisphere native varieties of English began to develop during
1767-623: The Condorcet’s Jury Theorem (CJT) to defend democracy, see Brennan and references therein. Nevertheless, it is an empirical question whether the theorem holds in real life or not. Note that the CJT is a double-edged sword : it can either prove that majority rule is an (almost) perfect mechanism to aggregate information, when p > 1 / 2 {\displaystyle p>1/2} , or an (almost) perfect disaster, when p < 1 / 2 {\displaystyle p<1/2} . A disaster would mean that
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1824-508: The Miracle of Aggregation (when p i = 1 / 2 {\displaystyle p_{i}=1/2} for most voters and p i = 1 {\displaystyle p_{i}=1} for a small proportion of them). Then, following a Bayesian approach, the prior probability (in this case, a priori ) of the thesis predicted by the theorem is estimated. That is, if we choose an arbitrary sequence of voters (i.e.,
1881-402: The advantages of using the other one. For instance, if parties trust each other the use of a formal contract is unnecessary or even detrimental to the relationship. On the other hand, other scholars have suggested that formal and informal organizations can complement each other. For instance, formal mechanisms of control can pave the way for the development of relational norms. English in
1938-599: The applicability of the CJT was taken. Instead of considering the homogeneous case, each voter is allowed to have a probability p i ∈ [ 0 , 1 ] {\displaystyle p_{i}\in [0,1]} , possibly different from other voters. This case was previously studied by Daniel Berend and Jacob Paroush and includes the classical theorem of Condorcet (when p i = p ∀ i ∈ N {\displaystyle p_{i}=p~~\forall ~i\in \mathbb {N} } ) and other results, like
1995-428: The authors, the application of the theorem can translate individual reader scores into a final score in a fashion that is both mathematically sound (by avoiding averaging of ordinal data), mathematically tractable for further analysis, and in a manner that is consistent with the scoring task at hand (based on decisions about the presence or absence of features, a subjective classification task) The Condorcet jury theorem
2052-417: The basis for the appointment of heads or chiefs of administrative subdivisions in the organization and endows them with the authority attached to their position. In contrast to the appointed head or chief of an administrative unit, a leader emerges within the context of the informal organization that underlies the formal structure. The informal organization expresses the personal objectives and goals of
2109-543: The country sought closer ties with the Anglophone world . Hong Kong ceased to be part of the Commonwealth (by virtue of being a British territory) in 1997. Nonetheless, the English language there still enjoys status as an official language. English was introduced into the subcontinent by the British Raj . Among the partitioned post-independent countries, India has the largest English-speaking population in
2166-484: The decision is difficult ( p close to 1/2), the gain by having n voters grows proportionally to n {\displaystyle {\sqrt {n}}} . The Condorcet jury theorem has recently been used to conceptualize score integration when several physician readers (radiologists, endoscopists, etc.) independently evaluate images for disease activity. This task arises in central reading performed during clinical trials and has similarities to voting. According to
2223-404: The demands of the situation, or a combination of these and other factors attract followers who accept their leadership within one or several overlay structures. Instead of the authority of position held by an appointed head or chief, the emergent leader wields influence or power. Influence is the ability of a person to gain cooperation from others by means of persuasion or control over rewards. Power
2280-412: The execution of transactions . An organization is defined by the elements that are part of it (who belongs to the organization and who does not?), its communication (which elements communicate and how do they communicate?), its autonomy (which changes are executed autonomously by the organization or its elements?), and its rules of action compared to outside events (what causes an organization to act as
2337-413: The first to officially use this organizational structure after it emerged in the early 1960s. A hierarchy exemplifies an arrangement with a leader who leads other individual members of the organization. This arrangement is often associated with the basis that there are enough to imagine a real pyramid, if there are not enough stone blocks to hold up the higher ones, gravity would irrevocably bring down
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2394-448: The form of a manifesto , mission statement , or implicitly through the organization's actions. Organizations may also operate secretly or illegally in the case of secret societies , criminal organizations , and resistance movements . And in some cases may have obstacles from other organizations (e.g.: MLK's organization) . What makes an organization recognized by the government is either filling out incorporation or recognition in
2451-628: The form of either societal pressure (e.g.: Advocacy group ), causing concerns (e.g.: Resistance movement ) or being considered the spokesperson of a group of people subject to negotiation (e.g.: the Polisario Front being recognized as the sole representative of the Sahrawi people and forming a partially recognized state .) Compare the concept of social groups , which may include non-organizations. Organizations and institutions can be synonymous, but Jack Knight writes that organizations are
2508-410: The gap, or don't make enough of a difference. So we only care what happens when a single vote (among the first n ) separates a correct from an incorrect majority. Restricting our attention to this case, we can imagine that the first n -1 votes cancel out and that the deciding vote is cast by the n -th voter. In this case the probability of getting a correct majority is just p . Now suppose we send in
2565-442: The individual membership . Their objectives and goals may or may not coincide with those of the formal organization. The informal organization represents an extension of the social structures that generally characterize human life – the spontaneous emergence of groups and organizations as ends in themselves. In prehistoric times, man was preoccupied with his personal security, maintenance, protection, and survival. Now man spends
2622-419: The levels of morphology, syntax and usage, some of which can also be found among educated speakers. Southeast Asian English comprises Singapore English , Malaysian English , and Brunei English ; it features some influence from Malay and Chinese languages, as well as Indian English . Other languages: Condorcet%27s jury theorem The assumptions of the theorem are that a group wishes to reach
2679-488: The monumental structure. So one can imagine that if the leader does not have the support of his subordinates, the entire structure will collapse. Hierarchies were satirized in The Peter Principle (1969), a book that introduced hierarchiology and the saying that "in a hierarchy, every employee tends to rise to his level of incompetence." In the social sciences, organizations are the object of analysis for
2736-433: The need for a tie-breaking rule, we assume n is odd. Essentially the same argument works for even n if ties are broken by adding a single voter. Now suppose we start with n voters, and let m of these voters vote correctly. Consider what happens when we add two more voters (to keep the total number odd). The majority vote changes in only two cases: The rest of the time, either the new votes cancel out, only increase
2793-736: The organization starve, while effective ones get more work. Everybody is paid for what they actually do, and so runs a tiny business that has to show a profit , or they are fired. Companies that utilize this organization type reflect a rather one-sided view of what goes on in ecology . It is also the case that a natural ecosystem has a natural border – ecoregions do not, in general, compete with one another in any way, but are very autonomous. The pharmaceutical company GlaxoSmithKline talks about functioning as this type of organization in this external article from The Guardian . By:Bastian Batac De Leon. This organizational type assigns each worker two bosses in two different hierarchies. One hierarchy
2850-710: The same. There is a great deal of variation in the way English is spoken, with a "Standard English" at one end of a bipolar linguistic continuum and Creole languages at the other. These dialects have roots in 17th-century British and Irish English , and African languages , plus localised influences from other colonial languages including French, Spanish, and Dutch; unlike most native varieties of English, West Indian dialects often tend to be syllable-timed rather than stress-timed . Second-language varieties of English in Africa and Asia have often undergone " indigenisation "; that is, each English-speaking community has developed (or
2907-410: The science of the institutions of modernity ; specific institutions serve a function , akin to the individual organs of a coherent body. In the social and political sciences in general, an "organization" may be more loosely understood as the planned, coordinated, and purposeful action of human beings working through collective action to reach a common goal or construct a tangible product . This action
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#17327571630632964-449: The sum multiplies the number of combinations of a majority by the probability of that majority. Each majority is counted using a combination , n items taken k at a time, where n is the jury size, and k is the size of the majority. Probabilities range from 0 (= the vote is always wrong) to 1 (= always right). Each person decides independently, so the probabilities of their decisions multiply. The probability of each correct decision
3021-432: The term is most often interchangeable with British English , but is also used to distinguish between British English and that in the rest of the Commonwealth. English in the Commonwealth is diverse, and many regions have developed their own local varieties of the language. In Cyprus , it does not have official status but is widely used as a lingua franca . English is spoken as a first or second language in most of
3078-423: The theories that are or have been influential are: A leader in a formal, hierarchical organization , is appointed to a managerial position and has the right to command and enforce obedience by virtue of the authority of his position. However, he must possess adequate personal attributes to match his authority, because authority is only potentially available to him. In the absence of sufficient personal competence,
3135-413: The two extra voters. The probability that they change an incorrect majority to a correct majority is (1- p ) p , while the probability that they change a correct majority to an incorrect majority is p (1- p ) . The first of these probabilities is greater than the second if and only if p > 1/2, proving the theorem. This proof is direct; it just sums up the probabilities of the majorities. Each term of
3192-418: The wrong option is chosen systematically. Some authors have argued that we are in the latter scenario. For instance, Bryan Caplan has extensively argued that voters' knowledge is systematically biased toward (probably) wrong options. In the CJT setup, this could be interpreted as evidence for p < 1 / 2 {\displaystyle p<1/2} . Recently, another approach to study
3249-540: Was borrowed whole from the Latin word organon , which means tool or instrument, musical instrument, and organ . There are a variety of legal types of organizations, including corporations , governments , non-governmental organizations , political organizations , international organizations , religious organizations , armed forces , charities , not-for-profit corporations , partnerships , cooperatives , and educational institutions , etc. A hybrid organization
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