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135-425: This is a list of films voted the best in national and international surveys of critics and the public. Some surveys focus on all films, while others focus on a particular genre or country. Voting systems differ, and some surveys suffer from biases such as self-selection or skewed demographics , while others may be susceptible to forms of interference such as vote stacking . Every decade, starting in 1952,

270-828: A fair trial . The English monarchs, through inheritance of substantial territories in France and claims to the French crown, were also heavily involved in conflicts in France, most notably the Hundred Years' War , while the Kings of Scots were in an alliance with the French during this period. Early modern Britain saw religious conflict resulting from the Reformation and the introduction of Protestant state churches in each country. The English Reformation ushered in political, constitutional, social and cultural change in

405-441: A margin of error – usually defined as the radius of a 95% confidence interval for a particular statistic. One example is the percent of people who prefer product A versus product B. When a single, global margin of error is reported for a survey, it refers to the maximum margin of error for all reported percentages using the full sample from the survey. If the statistic is a percentage, this maximum margin of error can be calculated as

540-521: A subpolar oceanic climate . Higher elevations in Scotland experience a continental subarctic climate and the mountains experience a tundra climate . The prevailing wind is from the southwest and bears frequent spells of mild and wet weather from the Atlantic Ocean, although the eastern parts are mostly sheltered from this wind. Since the majority of the rain falls over the western regions,

675-604: A welfare state was established, and a comprehensive, publicly funded healthcare system, the National Health Service , was created. The rise of nationalism in the colonies coincided with Britain's much-diminished economic position, so that a policy of decolonisation was unavoidable. Independence was granted to India and Pakistan in 1947. Over the next three decades, most colonies of the British Empire gained their independence, and many became members of

810-489: A fixed number of the most recent periods, for example the past five days. In this example, the next calculated results will use data for five days counting backwards from the next day, namely the same data as before, but with the data from the next day included, and without the data from the sixth day before that day. However, these polls are sometimes subject to dramatic fluctuations, and so political campaigns and candidates are cautious in analyzing their results. An example of

945-471: A huge role in the supplying of news: 62 percent of US adults get news on social media. This fact makes the issue of fake news on social media more pertinent. Other evidence shows that the most popular fake news stories were more widely shared on Facebook than the most popular mainstream news stories; many people who see fake news stories report that they believe them; and the most discussed fake news stories tended to favor Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton. As

1080-816: A land border with the Republic of Ireland ; otherwise, the United Kingdom is surrounded by the Atlantic Ocean , the North Sea , the English Channel , the Celtic Sea , and the Irish Sea . The United Kingdom had an estimated population of over 68.2 million people in 2023. The capital and largest city of both England and the United Kingdom is London , whose wider metropolitan area is

1215-445: A larger sample, however if a pollster wishes to reduce the margin of error to 1% they would need a sample of around 10,000 people. In practice, pollsters need to balance the cost of a large sample against the reduction in sampling error and a sample size of around 500–1,000 is a typical compromise for political polls. (To get complete responses it may be necessary to include thousands of additional participators.) Another way to reduce

1350-399: A leading role in the movement to abolish slavery worldwide through the blockade of Africa and pressing other nations to end their trade with a series of treaties. In 1800 the parliaments of Great Britain and Ireland each passed an Act of Union, uniting the two kingdoms and creating the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland on 1 January 1801. After the defeat of France at the end of

1485-575: A national survey (partly as a circulation-raising exercise) and correctly predicted Woodrow Wilson 's election as president. Mailing out millions of postcards and simply counting the returns, The Literary Digest also correctly predicted the victories of Warren Harding in 1920, Calvin Coolidge in 1924, Herbert Hoover in 1928, and Franklin Roosevelt in 1932. Then, in 1936 , its survey of 2.3 million voters suggested that Alf Landon would win

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1620-526: A person who is described by the surveyor as one of the "leading candidates". This description is "leading" as it indicates a subtle bias for that candidate, since it implies that the others in the race are not serious contenders. Additionally, leading questions often contain, or lack, certain facts that can sway a respondent's answer. Argumentative Questions can also impact the outcome of a survey. These types of questions, depending on their nature, either positive or negative, influence respondents' answers to reflect

1755-853: A policy of splendid isolation in Europe, and attempted to contain Russian influence in Afghanistan and Persia , in what came to be known as the Great Game . During this time, Canada , Australia and New Zealand were granted self-governing dominion status. At the turn of the century, Britain's industrial dominance became challenged by the German Empire and the United States . The Edwardian era saw social reform and home rule for Ireland become important domestic issues, while

1890-463: A question, with each version presented to half the respondents. The most effective controls, used by attitude researchers, are: These controls are not widely used in the polling industry. . However, as it is important that questions to test the product have a high quality, survey methodologists work on methods to test them. Empirical tests provide insight into the quality of the questionnaire, some may be more complex than others. For instance, testing

2025-407: A questionnaire can be done by: One of the criticisms of opinion polls is that societal assumptions that opinions between which there is no logical link are "correlated attitudes" can push people with one opinion into a group that forces them to pretend to have a supposedly linked but actually unrelated opinion. That, in turn, may cause people who have the first opinion to claim on polls that they have

2160-507: A result of a shortage of workers in the 1950s, the government encouraged immigration from Commonwealth countries . In the following decades, the UK became a more multi-ethnic society. Despite rising living standards in the late 1950s and 1960s, the UK's economic performance was less successful than many of its main competitors such as France, West Germany and Japan. The UK was the first democratic nation to lower its voting age to 18 in 1969. In

2295-642: A result of these facts, some have concluded that if not for these stories, Donald Trump may not have won the election over Hillary Clinton. By providing information about voting intentions, opinion polls can sometimes influence the behavior of electors, and in his book The Broken Compass , Peter Hitchens asserts that opinion polls are actually a device for influencing public opinion. The various theories about how this happens can be split into two groups: bandwagon/underdog effects, and strategic ("tactical") voting. United Kingdom The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland , commonly known as

2430-427: A sample is drawn from a large panel of volunteers, and the results are weighted to reflect the demographics of the population of interest. In contrast, popular web polls draw on whoever wishes to participate rather than a scientific sample of the population, and are therefore not generally considered professional. Statistical learning methods have been proposed in order to exploit social media content (such as posts on

2565-811: A series of connected wars (including the English Civil War ) which led to the temporary overthrow of the monarchy, with the execution of King Charles I , and the establishment of the short-lived unitary republic of the Commonwealth of England , Scotland and Ireland. Although the monarchy was restored , the Interregnum along with the Glorious Revolution of 1688 and the subsequent Bill of Rights 1689 in England and Claim of Right Act 1689 in Scotland ensured that, unlike much of

2700-415: A significant problem if a poll is conducted too early for anyone to know about the potential candidate. A benchmark poll needs to be undertaken when voters are starting to learn more about the possible candidate running for office. A benchmark poll serves a number of purposes for a campaign. First, it gives the candidate a picture of where they stand with the electorate before any campaigning takes place. If

2835-618: A subsidiary in the United Kingdom that was almost alone in correctly predicting Labour's victory in the 1945 general election : virtually all other commentators had expected a victory for the Conservative Party , led by wartime leader Winston Churchill . The Allied occupation powers helped to create survey institutes in all of the Western occupation zones of Germany in 1947 and 1948 to better steer denazification . By

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2970-479: A tracking poll that generated controversy over its accuracy, is one conducted during the 2000 U.S. presidential election, by the Gallup Organization . The results for one day showed Democratic candidate Al Gore with an eleven-point lead over Republican candidate George W. Bush . Then, a subsequent poll conducted just two days later showed Bush ahead of Gore by seven points. It was soon determined that

3105-497: Is a popular medium for the candidates to campaign and for gauging the public reaction to the campaigns. Social media can also be used as an indicator of the voter opinion regarding the poll. Some research studies have shown that predictions made using social media signals can match traditional opinion polls. Regarding the 2016 U.S. presidential election , a major concern has been that of the effect of false stories spread throughout social media . Evidence shows that social media plays

3240-517: Is much more effective than traditional public opinion polling. Unlike traditional public polling, deliberative opinion polls measure what the public believes about issues after being offered information and the ability to discuss them with other voters. Since voters generally do not actively research various issues, they often base their opinions on these issues on what the media and candidates say about them. Scholars argued that these polls can truly reflect voters' feelings about an issue once they are given

3375-485: Is often referred to as the Bradley effect . If the results of surveys are widely publicized this effect may be magnified – a phenomenon commonly referred to as the spiral of silence . Use of the plurality voting system (select only one candidate) in a poll puts an unintentional bias into the poll, since people who favor more than one candidate cannot indicate this. The fact that they must choose only one candidate biases

3510-481: Is only the one specific nominal term 'Great Britain' which invariably excludes Northern Ireland". The BBC historically preferred to use "Britain" as shorthand only for Great Britain, though the present style guide does not take a position except that "Great Britain" excludes Northern Ireland. The adjective "British" is commonly used to refer to matters relating to the United Kingdom and is used in law to refer to United Kingdom citizenship and nationality . People of

3645-491: Is probability sampling and statistical theory that enable one to determine sampling error, confidence levels, and the like and to generalize from the results of the sample to the broader population from which it was selected. Other factors also come into play in making a survey scientific. One must select a sample of sufficient size. If the sampling error is too large or the level of confidence too low, it will be difficult to make reasonably precise statements about characteristics of

3780-538: Is ranked 2nd out of 180 countries in the Environmental Performance Index . A law has been passed that UK greenhouse gas emissions will be net zero by 2050. England accounts for 53 per cent of the UK, covering 50,350 square miles (130,395 km ). Most of the country consists of lowland terrain, with upland and mountainous terrain northwest of the Tees–Exe line which roughly divides

3915-465: Is regarded as one of the most important "greatest ever film" lists. American critic Roger Ebert described it as "by far the most respected of the countless polls of great movies—the only one most serious movie people take seriously." Opinion poll The first known example of an opinion poll was a tally of voter preferences reported by the Raleigh Star and North Carolina State Gazette and

4050-599: Is sometimes used as a loose synonym for the United Kingdom as a whole. The word England is occasionally used incorrectly to refer to the United Kingdom as a whole, a mistake principally made by people from outside the UK. The term "Britain" is used as a synonym for Great Britain , but also sometimes for the United Kingdom. Usage is mixed: the UK Government prefers to use the term "UK" rather than "Britain" or "British" on its website (except when referring to embassies), while acknowledging that both terms refer to

4185-401: Is subject to controversy. Deliberative Opinion Polls combine the aspects of a public opinion poll and a focus group. These polls bring a group of voters and provide information about specific issues. They are then allowed to discuss those issues with the other voters. Once they know more about the issues, they are polled afterward on their thoughts. Many scholars argue that this type of polling

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4320-422: Is that an estimate of a trend is subject to a larger error than an estimate of a level. This is because if one estimates the change, the difference between two numbers X and Y, then one has to contend with errors in both X and Y . A rough guide is that if the change in measurement falls outside the margin of error it is worth attention. Since some people do not answer calls from strangers, or refuse to answer

4455-579: Is the Isle of Wight . Scotland accounts for 32 per cent of the UK, covering 30,410 square miles (78,772 km ). This includes nearly 800 islands , notably the Hebrides , Orkney Islands and Shetland Islands. Scotland is the most mountainous constituent country of the UK, the Highlands to the north and west are the more rugged region containing the majority of Scotland's mountainous land, including

4590-588: The 1884 Reform Act championed by William Gladstone granting suffrage to a majority of males for the first time. The British population increased at a dramatic rate, accompanied by rapid urbanisation , causing significant social and economic stresses. By the late 19th century, the Conservatives under Benjamin Disraeli and Lord Salisbury initiated a period of imperial expansion in Africa , maintained

4725-494: The 1993 general election predicted the governing National Party would increase its majority. However, the preliminary results on election night showed a hung parliament with National one seat short of a majority, leading to Prime Minister Jim Bolger exclaiming "bugger the pollsters" on live national television. The official count saw National gain Waitaki to hold a one-seat majority and retain government. Social media today

4860-534: The Atlantic slave trade , mainly between 1662 and 1807 when British or British-colonial slave ships transported nearly 3.3 million slaves from Africa. The slaves were taken to work on plantations , principally in the Caribbean but also North America . However, with pressure from the abolitionism movement , Parliament banned the trade in 1807, banned slavery in the British Empire in 1833, and Britain took

4995-650: The Battle of Culloden in 1746, after which the Scottish Highlanders were forcibly assimilated into Scotland by revoking the feudal independence of clan chiefs . The British colonies in North America that broke away in the American War of Independence became the United States . British imperial ambition turned towards Asia, particularly to India . British merchants played a leading part in

5130-715: The Cairngorms , Loch Lomond and The Trossachs and Ben Nevis which at 1,345 metres (4,413 ft) is the highest point in the British Isles. Wales accounts for less than 9 per cent of the UK, covering 8,020 square miles (20,779 km ). Wales is mostly mountainous, though South Wales is less mountainous than North and mid Wales . The highest mountains in Wales are in Snowdonia and include Snowdon ( Welsh : Yr Wyddfa ) which, at 1,085 metres (3,560 ft),

5265-523: The Commonwealth of Nations . The UK was the third country to develop a nuclear weapons arsenal (with its first atomic bomb test, Operation Hurricane , in 1952), but the post-war limits of Britain's international role were illustrated by the Suez Crisis of 1956. The international spread of the English language ensured the continuing international influence of its literature and culture . As

5400-767: The European Convention on Human Rights . The UK remained a great power with global diplomatic and military influence and a leading role in the United Nations and NATO . The UK broadly supported the United States' approach to the " war on terror " in the early 21st century. British troops fought in the War in Afghanistan , but controversy surrounded Britain's military deployment in Iraq , which saw

5535-583: The European Union (EU) in 1992, the UK was one of the 12 founding member states. From the late 1960s, Northern Ireland suffered communal and paramilitary violence (sometimes affecting other parts of the UK) conventionally known as the Troubles . It is usually considered to have ended with the 1998 Belfast "Good Friday" Agreement . Following a period of widespread economic slowdown and industrial strife in

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5670-494: The Falkland Islands , leading to the 10-week Falklands War in which Argentine forces were defeated. The inhabitants of the islands are predominantly descendants of British settlers, and strongly favour British sovereignty, expressed in a 2013 referendum . From 1984, the UK economy was helped by the inflow of substantial North Sea oil revenues. Another British overseas territory, Gibraltar , ceded to Great Britain in

5805-545: The French Revolutionary Wars and Napoleonic Wars (1792–1815), the United Kingdom emerged as the principal naval and imperial power (with London the largest city in the world from about 1830). Unchallenged at sea , British dominance was later described as Pax Britannica ("British Peace"), a period of relative peace among the great powers (1815–1914) during which the British Empire became

5940-662: The Kingdom of England and the Kingdom of Scotland united under the Treaty of Union to create the Kingdom of Great Britain . The Acts of Union 1800 incorporated the Kingdom of Ireland to create the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland in 1801. Most of Ireland seceded from the UK in 1922 as the Irish Free State , and the Royal and Parliamentary Titles Act 1927 created the present United Kingdom. The UK became

6075-650: The Labour Party emerged from an alliance of trade unions and small socialist groups in 1900, and suffragettes campaigned for women's right to vote. Britain was one of the principal Allies that defeated the Central Powers in the First World War (1914–1918). Alongside their French, Russian and (after 1917) American counterparts, British armed forces were engaged across much of the British Empire and in several regions of Europe, particularly on

6210-560: The Nazi extermination of the Jews never happened?" The confusing wording of this question led to inaccurate results which indicated that 22 percent of respondents believed it seemed possible the Holocaust might not have ever happened. When the question was reworded, significantly fewer respondents (only 1 percent) expressed that same sentiment. Thus comparisons between polls often boil down to

6345-647: The Representation of the People Act 1918 . After the war, Britain became a permanent member of the Executive Council of the League of Nations and received a mandate over a number of former German and Ottoman colonies. Under the leadership of David Lloyd George , the British Empire reached its greatest extent, covering a fifth of the world's land surface and a quarter of its population. By

6480-973: The Soviet Union formed in 1941, leading the Allies against the Axis powers . There were eventual hard-fought victories in the Battle of the Atlantic , the North Africa campaign and the Italian campaign . British forces played important roles in the Normandy landings of 1944 and the liberation of Europe . The British Army led the Burma campaign against Japan, and the British Pacific Fleet fought Japan at sea. British scientists contributed to

6615-584: The United Kingdom ( UK ) or Britain , is a country in Northwestern Europe , off the coast of the continental mainland . It comprises England , Scotland , Wales , and Northern Ireland . The UK includes the island of Great Britain , the north-eastern part of the island of Ireland , and most of the smaller islands within the British Isles , making up a total area of 94,354 square miles (244,376 km ). Northern Ireland shares

6750-431: The United States was the prediction that Thomas Dewey would defeat Harry S. Truman in the 1948 US presidential election . Major polling organizations, including Gallup and Roper, had indicated that Dewey would defeat Truman in a landslide; Truman won a narrow victory. There were also substantial polling errors in the presidential elections of 1952, 1980, 1996, 2000, and 2016: while the first three correctly predicted

6885-511: The Western Front . The high fatalities of trench warfare caused the loss of much of a generation of men, with lasting social effects in the nation and a great disruption in the social order. Britain had suffered 2.5 million casualties and finished the war with a huge national debt. The consequences of the war persuaded the government to expand the right to vote in national and local elections to all adult men and most adult women with

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7020-613: The Wilmington American Watchman and Delaware Advertiser prior to the 1824 presidential election , showing Andrew Jackson leading John Quincy Adams by 335 votes to 169 in the contest for the United States Presidency . Since Jackson won the popular vote in that state and the national popular vote, such straw votes gradually became more popular, but they remained local, usually citywide phenomena. In 1916, The Literary Digest embarked on

7155-471: The coastline paradox . It is connected to continental Europe by the Channel Tunnel , which at 31 miles (50 km) (24 miles (38 km) underwater) is the longest underwater tunnel in the world. The UK contains four terrestrial ecoregions: Celtic broadleaf forests , English Lowlands beech forests , North Atlantic moist mixed forests , and Caledonian conifer forests . The area of woodland in

7290-491: The largest protest in British history in opposition to the government led by Tony Blair . The Great Recession severely affected the UK economy. The Cameron–Clegg coalition government of 2010 introduced austerity measures intended to tackle the substantial public deficits. Studies have suggested that policy led to significant social disruption and suffering. A referendum on Scottish independence in 2014 resulted in

7425-512: The 16th century and established the Church of England . Moreover, it defined a national identity for England and slowly, but profoundly, changed people's religious beliefs. Wales was fully incorporated into the Kingdom of England , and Ireland was constituted as a kingdom in personal union with the English crown. In what was to become Northern Ireland, the lands of the independent Catholic Gaelic nobility were confiscated and given to Protestant settlers from England and Scotland. In 1603,

7560-401: The 1713 Treaty of Utrecht, is a key military base . A referendum in 2002 on shared sovereignty with Spain was rejected by 98.97% of voters in the territory. Around the end of the 20th century, there were major changes to the governance of the UK with the establishment of devolved administrations for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The statutory incorporation followed acceptance of

7695-470: The 1950s, various types of polling had spread to most democracies. Viewed from a long-term perspective, advertising had come under heavy pressure in the early 1930s. The Great Depression forced businesses to drastically cut back on their advertising spending. Layoffs and reductions were common at all agencies. The New Deal furthermore aggressively promoted consumerism, and minimized the value of (or need for) advertising. Historian Jackson Lears argues that "By

7830-406: The 1970s, the Conservative government of the 1980s led by Margaret Thatcher initiated a radical policy of monetarism , deregulation, particularly of the financial sector (for example, the Big Bang in 1986) and labour markets, the sale of state-owned companies (privatisation), and the withdrawal of subsidies to others. In 1982, Argentina invaded the British territories of South Georgia and

7965-456: The 2016 New York primary, where a news organization reports misleading primary results. Government officials argue that since many Americans believe in exit polls more, election results are likely to make voters not think they are impacted electorally and be more doubtful about the credibility of news organizations. Over time, a number of theories and mechanisms have been offered to explain erroneous polling results. Some of these reflect errors on

8100-430: The 2016 U.S. primaries, CNN reported that the Democratic primary in New York was too close to call, and they made this judgment based on exit polls. However, the vote count revealed that these exit polls were misleading, and Hillary Clinton was far ahead of Bernie Sanders in the popular vote, winning the state by 58% to 42% margin. The overreliance on exit polling leads to the second point of how it undermines public trust in

8235-476: The 5th century) united with the Picts to create the Kingdom of Scotland in the 9th century. In 1066, the Normans invaded England from northern France. After conquering England , they seized large parts of Wales , conquered much of Ireland and were invited to settle in Scotland, bringing to each country feudalism on the Northern French model and Norman-French culture. The Anglo-Norman ruling class greatly influenced, but eventually assimilated with,

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8370-474: The British film magazine Sight and Sound asks an international group of film critics to vote for the greatest film of all time. Since 1992, they have invited directors to vote in a separate poll. Sixty-three critics participated in 1952, 70 critics in 1962, 89 critics in 1972, 122 critics in 1982, 132 critics and 101 directors in 1992, 145 critics and 108 directors in 2002, 846 critics and 358 directors in 2012, and 1639 critics and 480 directors in 2022. This poll

8505-464: The Brittonic area mainly to what was to become Wales , Cornwall and, until the latter stages of the Anglo-Saxon settlement, the Hen Ogledd (northern England and parts of southern Scotland). Most of the region settled by the Anglo-Saxons became unified as the Kingdom of England in the 10th century. Meanwhile, Gaelic speakers in north-west Britain (with connections to the north-east of Ireland and traditionally supposed to have migrated from there in

8640-400: The Conservatives neck and neck, when the actual result was a clear Conservative majority. On the other hand, in 2017 , the opposite appears to have occurred. Most polls predicted an increased Conservative majority, even though in reality the election resulted in a hung parliament with a Conservative plurality: some polls correctly predicted this outcome. In New Zealand, the polls leading up to

8775-452: The Manhattan Project whose task was to build an atomic weapon. Once built, it was decided, with British consent, to use the weapon against Japan. The UK was one of the Big Three powers (along with the US and the Soviet Union) who met to plan the post-war world ; it drafted the Declaration by United Nations with the United States and became one of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council . It worked closely with

8910-425: The Name of Great Britain". The term "United Kingdom" has occasionally been used as a description for the former Kingdom of Great Britain , although its official name from 1707 to 1800 was simply "Great Britain". The Acts of Union 1800 formed the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland . Following the partition of Ireland and the independence of the Irish Free State in 1922, which left Northern Ireland as

9045-411: The Normans conquered England . With the end of the Wars of the Roses the English state stabilised and began to grow in power, resulting by the 16th century in the annexation of Wales , the domination of Scotland , and the establishment of the British Empire . Over the course of the 17th century, the role of the British monarchy was reduced, particularly as a result of the English Civil War . In 1707,

9180-450: The Pew Research Center in the US, in 2007, concluded that "cell-only respondents are different from landline respondents in important ways, (but) they were neither numerous enough nor different enough on the questions we examined to produce a significant change in overall general population survey estimates when included with the landline samples and weighted according to US Census parameters on basic demographic characteristics." This issue

9315-495: The Scottish electorate voting by 55.3 to 44.7% to remain part of the United Kingdom. In 2016, 51.9 per cent of voters in the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union . The UK left the EU in 2020. On 1 May 2021, the EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement came into force. The COVID-19 pandemic had a severe impact on the UK's economy , caused major disruptions to education and had far-reaching impacts on society and politics in 2020 and 2021. The United Kingdom

9450-489: The Second World War damaged Britain's economic power and a global wave of decolonisation led to the independence of most British colonies. The United Kingdom is a constitutional monarchy and parliamentary democracy . The UK has three distinct jurisdictions: England and Wales , Scotland , and Northern Ireland . Since 1999, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have their own governments and parliaments which control various devolved matters. A developed country ,

9585-430: The UK has the world's sixth-largest economy by nominal gross domestic product (GDP). It is a nuclear state , and is ranked fifth globally in military expenditure . The UK has been a permanent member of the UN Security Council since its first session in 1946. It is a member of the Commonwealth of Nations , Council of Europe , G7 , OECD , NATO , Five Eyes , AUKUS and CPTPP . British influence can be observed in

9720-484: The UK in 2023 is estimated to be 3.25 million hectares, which represents 13% of the total land area in the UK. Most of the United Kingdom has a temperate climate, with generally cool temperatures and plentiful rainfall all year round. The temperature varies with the seasons seldom dropping below 0  °C (32  °F ) or rising above 30 °C (86 °F). Some parts, away from the coast, of upland England, Wales, Northern Ireland and most of Scotland, experience

9855-961: The UK into lowland and upland areas. Lowland areas include Cornwall , the New Forest , the South Downs and the Norfolk Broads . Upland areas include the Lake District , the Pennines , the Yorkshire Dales , Exmoor , and Dartmoor . The main rivers and estuaries are the Thames , Severn , and the Humber . England's highest mountain is Scafell Pike , at 978 metres (3,209 ft) in the Lake District; its largest island

9990-402: The United Kingdom and that elsewhere "British government" is used at least as frequently as "United Kingdom government". The UK Permanent Committee on Geographical Names recognises "United Kingdom", "UK" and "U.K." as shortened and abbreviated geopolitical terms for the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland in its toponymic guidelines; it does not list "Britain" but notes that "it

10125-411: The United Kingdom is 1339.7 hours, which is just under 30% of the maximum possible. The hours of sunshine vary from 1200 to about 1580 hours per year, and since 1996 the UK has been and still is receiving above the 1981 to 2010 average hours of sunshine. Climate change has a serious impact on the country. A third of food price rise in 2023 is attributed to climate change. As of 2022, the United Kingdom

10260-436: The United Kingdom use several different terms to describe their national identity and may identify themselves as being British , English , Scottish , Welsh , Northern Irish , or Irish ; or as having a combination of different national identities. Settlement by Cro-Magnons of what was to become the United Kingdom occurred in waves beginning by about 30,000 years ago. The island has been continuously inhabited only since

10395-685: The United Kingdom. The 1928 Equal Franchise Act gave women electoral equality with men in national elections. Strikes in the mid-1920s culminated in the General Strike of 1926 . Britain had still not recovered from the effects of the First World War when the Great Depression (1929–1932) led to considerable unemployment and hardship in the old industrial areas, as well as political and social unrest with rising membership in communist and socialist parties. A coalition government

10530-489: The United States (because the phone's owner may be charged for taking a call ), these individuals are typically excluded from polling samples. There is concern that, if the subset of the population without cell phones differs markedly from the rest of the population, these differences can skew the results of the poll. Polling organizations have developed many weighting techniques to help overcome these deficiencies, with varying degrees of success. Studies of mobile phone users by

10665-640: The United States to establish the IMF , World Bank and NATO . The war left the UK severely weakened and financially dependent on the Marshall Plan , but it was spared the total war that devastated eastern Europe. In the immediate post-war years, the Labour government under Clement Attlee initiated a radical programme of reforms, which significantly impacted British society in the following decades . Major industries and public utilities were nationalised ,

10800-576: The acquisition and settlement of overseas colonies , particularly in North America and the Caribbean. Though previous attempts at uniting the two kingdoms within Great Britain in 1606, 1667, and 1689 had proved unsuccessful, the attempt initiated in 1705 led to the Treaty of Union of 1706 being agreed and ratified by both parliaments. On 1 May 1707, the Kingdom of Great Britain was formed,

10935-422: The actual sample is a biased version of the universe the pollster wants to analyze. In these cases, bias introduces new errors, one way or the other, that are in addition to errors caused by sample size. Error due to bias does not become smaller with larger sample sizes, because taking a larger sample size simply repeats the same mistake on a larger scale. If the people who refuse to answer, or are never reached, have

11070-449: The answers given by respondents do not reflect their true beliefs. This may be deliberately engineered by unscrupulous pollsters in order to generate a certain result or please their clients, but more often is a result of the detailed wording or ordering of questions (see below). Respondents may deliberately try to manipulate the outcome of a poll by e.g. advocating a more extreme position than they actually hold in order to boost their side of

11205-424: The argument or give rapid and ill-considered answers in order to hasten the end of their questioning. Respondents may also feel under social pressure not to give an unpopular answer. For example, respondents might be unwilling to admit to unpopular attitudes like racism or sexism , and thus polls might not reflect the true incidence of these attitudes in the population. In American political parlance, this phenomenon

11340-584: The assumption that opinion polls show actual links between opinions is considered important. Another source of error is the use of samples that are not representative of the population as a consequence of the methodology used, as was the experience of The Literary Digest in 1936. For example, telephone sampling has a built-in error because in many times and places, those with telephones have generally been richer than those without. In some places many people have only mobile telephones . Because pollsters cannot use automated dialing machines to call mobile phones in

11475-493: The breakdown of the US population by party identification has not changed since the previous presidential election, you may underestimate a victory or a defeat of a particular party candidate that saw a surge or decline in its party registration relative to the previous presidential election cycle. Sample Techniques are also used and recommended to reduce sample errors and errors of margin. In chapter four of author Herb Asher he says,"it

11610-425: The campaign know which voters are persuadable so they can spend their limited resources in the most effective manner. Second, it can give them an idea of what messages, ideas, or slogans are the strongest with the electorate. In a tracking poll responses are obtained in a number of consecutive periods, for instance daily, and then results are calculated using a moving average of the responses that were gathered over

11745-609: The country, allowing for a comparative analysis between specific regions. For example, in the United States, exit polls are beneficial in accurately determining how the state voters cast their ballot instead of relying on a national survey. Third, exit polls can give journalists and social scientists a greater understanding of why voters voted the way they did and what factors contributed to their vote. Exit polling has several disadvantages that can cause controversy depending on its use. First, these polls are not always accurate and can sometimes mislead election reporting. For instance, during

11880-736: The decades-long process of European integration , the UK was a founding member of the Western European Union , established with the London and Paris Conferences in 1954. In 1960 the UK was one of the seven founding members of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), but in 1973 it left to join the European Communities (EC). In a 1975 referendum 67% voted to stay in it. When the EC became

12015-483: The eastern parts are the driest. Atlantic currents, warmed by the Gulf Stream , bring mild winters, especially in the west where winters are wet and even more so over high ground. Summers are warmest in the southeast of England and coolest in the north. Heavy snowfall can occur in winter and early spring on high ground, and occasionally settles to great depth away from the hills. The average total annual sunshine in

12150-404: The factors that impact the results of opinion polls are the wording and order of the questions being posed by the surveyor. Questions that intentionally affect a respondents answer are referred to as leading questions . Individuals and/or groups use these types of questions in surveys to elicit responses favorable to their interests. For instance, the public is more likely to indicate support for

12285-693: The field of public opinion since 1947 when he joined the Elmo Roper firm, then later became partner. In September 1938, Jean Stoetzel , after having met Gallup, created IFOP, the Institut Français d'Opinion Publique , as the first European survey institute in Paris. Stoetzel started political polls in summer 1939 with the question " Why die for Danzig? ", looking for popular support or dissent with this question asked by appeasement politician and future collaborationist Marcel Déat . Gallup launched

12420-404: The first industrialised country and was the world's foremost power for the majority of the 19th and early 20th centuries, particularly during the " Pax Britannica " between 1815 and 1914. At its height in the 1920s, the British Empire encompassed almost a quarter of the world's landmass and population, and was the largest empire in history . However, its involvement in the First World War and

12555-594: The first year, Britain and its Empire continued the war against Germany. Churchill engaged industry, scientists and engineers to support the government and the military in the prosecution of the war effort. In 1940, the Royal Air Force defeated the German Luftwaffe in the Battle of Britain . Urban areas suffered heavy bombing during the Blitz . The Grand Alliance of Britain, the United States and

12690-587: The formal control it exerted over its own colonies, British dominance of much of world trade meant that it effectively controlled the economies of regions such as East Asia and Latin America . Throughout the Victorian era , political attitudes favoured free trade and laissez-faire policies. Beginning with the Great Reform Act in 1832, Parliament gradually widened the voting franchise , with

12825-762: The global hegemon and adopted the role of global policeman. From 1853 to 1856, Britain took part in the Crimean War , allied with the Ottoman Empire against Tsarist Russia , participating in the naval battles of the Baltic Sea known as the Åland War in the Gulf of Bothnia and the Gulf of Finland , among others. Following the Indian Rebellion in 1857 , the British government led by Lord Palmerston assumed direct rule over India . Alongside

12960-403: The kingdoms of England, Scotland and Ireland were united in a personal union when James VI, King of Scots , inherited the crowns of England and Ireland and moved his court from Edinburgh to London; each country nevertheless remained a separate political entity and retained its separate political, legal, and religious institutions. In the mid-17th century, all three kingdoms were involved in

13095-581: The largest in Western Europe , with a population of 14.9 million. The cities of Edinburgh , Cardiff , and Belfast are the national capitals of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, respectively. The lands of the UK have been inhabited continuously since the Neolithic . In AD 43 the Roman conquest of Britain began; the Roman departure was followed by Anglo-Saxon settlement . In 1066,

13230-408: The last retreat of the ice around 11,500 years ago. By the end of the region's prehistoric period , the population is thought to have belonged largely to a culture termed Insular Celtic , comprising Brittonic Britain and Gaelic Ireland . The Roman conquest , beginning in 43 AD, and the 400-year rule of southern Britain , was followed by an invasion by Germanic Anglo-Saxon settlers, reducing

13365-413: The late 1930s, though, corporate advertisers had begun a successful counterattack against their critics." They rehabilitated the concept of consumer sovereignty by inventing scientific public opinion polls, and making it the centerpiece of their own market research, as well as the key to understanding politics. George Gallup, the vice president of Young and Rubicam, and numerous other advertising experts, led

13500-409: The legal and political systems of many of its former colonies , and British culture remains globally influential, particularly in language , literature , music and sport . English is the world's most widely spoken language and the third-most spoken native language . The Acts of Union 1707 declared that the Kingdom of England and Kingdom of Scotland were "United into One Kingdom by

13635-530: The local cultures. Subsequent medieval English kings completed the conquest of Wales and tried unsuccessfully to annex Scotland . Asserting its independence in the 1320 Declaration of Arbroath , Scotland maintained its independence thereafter, albeit in near-constant conflict with England . In 1215 the Magna Carta was the first document to state that no government was above the law, that citizens have rights protecting them and that they were entitled to

13770-618: The major part of the British Isles archipelago and includes the island of Great Britain, the north-eastern one-sixth of the island of Ireland and some smaller surrounding islands. It lies between the North Atlantic Ocean and the North Sea with the southeast coast coming within 22 miles (35 km) of the coast of northern France, from which it is separated by the English Channel . The Royal Greenwich Observatory in London

13905-409: The margin of error is to rely on poll averages . This makes the assumption that the procedure is similar enough between many different polls and uses the sample size of each poll to create a polling average. Another source of error stems from faulty demographic models by pollsters who weigh their samples by particular variables such as party identification in an election. For example, if you assume that

14040-425: The media and the electoral process. In the U.S., Congress and state governments have criticized the use of exit polling because Americans tend to believe more in the accuracy of exit polls. If an exit poll shows that American voters were leaning toward a particular candidate, most would assume that the candidate would win. However, as mentioned earlier, an exit poll can sometimes be inaccurate and lead to situations like

14175-467: The micro-blogging platform Twitter ) for modelling and predicting voting intention polls. A benchmark poll is generally the first poll taken in a campaign. It is often taken before a candidate announces their bid for office, but sometimes it happens immediately following that announcement after they have had some opportunity to raise funds. This is generally a short and simple survey of likely voters. Benchmark polling often relies on timing, which can be

14310-674: The mid-1920s, most of the British population could listen to BBC radio programmes. Experimental television broadcasts began in 1929 and the first scheduled BBC Television Service commenced in 1936. The rise of Irish nationalism , and disputes within Ireland over the terms of Irish Home Rule , led eventually to the partition of the island in 1921. A period of conflict in what is now Northern Ireland occurred from June 1920 until June 1922. The Irish Free State became independent, initially with Dominion status in 1922, and unambiguously independent in 1931 . Northern Ireland remained part of

14445-429: The necessary information to learn more about it. Despite this, there are two issues with deliberative opinion polls. First, they are expensive and challenging to perform since they require a representative sample of voters, and the information given on specific issues must be fair and balanced. Second, the results of deliberative opinion polls generally do not reflect the opinions of most voters since most voters do not take

14580-463: The only part of the island of Ireland within the United Kingdom, the name was changed in 1927 to the "United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland". Although the United Kingdom is a sovereign country, England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are also widely referred to as countries . The UK Prime Minister's website has used the phrase "countries within a country" to describe the United Kingdom. Some statistical summaries, such as those for

14715-545: The part of the pollsters; many of them are statistical in nature. Some blame respondents for not providing genuine answers to pollsters, a phenomenon known as social desirability-bias (also referred to as the Bradley effect or the Shy Tory Factor ); these terms can be quite controversial. Polls based on samples of populations are subject to sampling error which reflects the effects of chance and uncertainty in

14850-403: The poll is done prior to announcing for office the candidate may use the poll to decide whether or not they should even run for office. Secondly, it shows them where their weaknesses and strengths are in two main areas. The first is the electorate. A benchmark poll shows them what types of voters they are sure to win, those they are sure to lose, and everyone in-between these two extremes. This lets

14985-611: The poll, causing it to favor the candidate most different from the others while it disfavors candidates who are similar to other candidates. The plurality voting system also biases elections in the same way. Some people responding may not understand the words being used, but may wish to avoid the embarrassment of admitting this, or the poll mechanism may not allow clarification, so they may make an arbitrary choice. Some percentage of people also answer whimsically or out of annoyance at being polled. This results in perhaps 4% of Americans reporting they have personally been decapitated . Among

15120-434: The poll, poll samples may not be representative samples from a population due to a non-response bias . Response rates have been declining, and are down to about 10% in recent years. Various pollsters have attributed this to an increased skepticism and lack of interest in polling. Because of this selection bias , the characteristics of those who agree to be interviewed may be markedly different from those who decline. That is,

15255-504: The population of interest to the pollster. A scientific poll not only will have a sufficiently large sample, it will also be sensitive to response rates. Very low response rates will raise questions about how representative and accurate the results are. Are there systematic differences between those who participated in the survey and those who, for whatever reason, did not participate? Sampling methods, sample size, and response rates will all be discussed in this chapter" (Asher 2017). A caution

15390-492: The presidential election, but Roosevelt was instead re-elected by a landslide. George Gallup 's research found that the error was mainly caused by participation bias ; those who favored Landon were more enthusiastic about returning their postcards. Furthermore, the postcards were sent to a target audience who were more affluent than the American population as a whole, and therefore more likely to have Republican sympathies. At

15525-570: The questions are then worded in a way that limit the possible answers, typically to yes or no. Another type of question that can produce inaccurate results are " Double-Negative Questions". These are more often the result of human error, rather than intentional manipulation. One such example is a survey done in 1992 by the Roper Organization , concerning the Holocaust . The question read "Does it seem possible or impossible to you that

15660-455: The radius of the confidence interval for a reported percentage of 50%. Others suggest that a poll with a random sample of 1,000 people has margin of sampling error of ±3% for the estimated percentage of the whole population. A 3% margin of error means that if the same procedure is used a large number of times, 95% of the time the true population average will be within the sample estimate plus or minus 3%. The margin of error can be reduced by using

15795-504: The rest of Europe, royal absolutism would not prevail, and a professed Catholic could never accede to the throne. The British constitution would develop on the basis of constitutional monarchy and the parliamentary system . With the founding of the Royal Society in 1660, science was greatly encouraged. During this period, particularly in England, the development of naval power and the interest in voyages of discovery led to

15930-587: The result of the Acts of Union 1707 between the Kingdom of England and Kingdom of Scotland . In the 18th century, cabinet government developed under Robert Walpole , in practice the first prime minister (1721–1742). A series of Jacobite uprisings sought to remove the Protestant House of Hanover from the throne and restore the Catholic House of Stuart . The Jacobites were finally defeated at

16065-416: The same characteristics as the people who do answer, then the final results should be unbiased. If the people who do not answer have different opinions then there is bias in the results. In terms of election polls, studies suggest that bias effects are small, but each polling firm has its own techniques for adjusting weights to minimize selection bias. Survey results may be affected by response bias , where

16200-402: The same time, Gallup, Archibald Crossley and Elmo Roper conducted surveys that were far smaller but more scientifically based, and all three managed to correctly predict the result. The Literary Digest soon went out of business, while polling started to take off. Roper went on to correctly predict the two subsequent reelections of President Franklin D. Roosevelt. Louis Harris had been in

16335-408: The sampling process. Sampling polls rely on the law of large numbers to measure the opinions of the whole population based only on a subset, and for this purpose the absolute size of the sample is important, but the percentage of the whole population is not important (unless it happens to be close to the sample size). The possible difference between the sample and whole population is often expressed as

16470-776: The second opinion without having it, causing opinion polls to become part of self-fulfilling prophecy problems. It has been suggested that attempts to counteract unethical opinions by condemning supposedly linked opinions may favor the groups that promote the actually unethical opinions by forcing people with supposedly linked opinions into them by ostracism elsewhere in society making such efforts counterproductive, that not being sent between groups that assume ulterior motives from each other and not being allowed to express consistent critical thought anywhere may create psychological stress because humans are sapient, and that discussion spaces free from assumptions of ulterior motives behind specific opinions should be created. In this context, rejection of

16605-466: The time to research issues the way an academic researches issues. Exit polls interview voters just as they are leaving polling places. Unlike general public opinion polls, these are polls of people who voted in the election. Exit polls provide a more accurate picture of which candidates the public prefers in an election because people participating in the poll did vote in the election. Second, these polls are conducted across multiple voting locations across

16740-445: The tone of the question(s) and generate a certain response or reaction, rather than gauge sentiment in an unbiased manner. In opinion polling, there are also " loaded questions ", otherwise known as " trick questions ". This type of leading question may concern an uncomfortable or controversial issue, and/or automatically assume the subject of the question is related to the respondent(s) or that they are knowledgeable about it. Likewise,

16875-436: The twelve NUTS 1 regions , refer to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland as "regions". Northern Ireland is also referred to as a "province". With regard to Northern Ireland, the descriptive name used "can be controversial, with the choice often revealing one's political preferences". The term "Great Britain" conventionally refers to the island of Great Britain, or politically to England, Scotland and Wales in combination. It

17010-534: The volatility of the results was at least in part due to an uneven distribution of Democratic and Republican affiliated voters in the samples. Though the Gallup Organization argued the volatility in the poll was a genuine representation of the electorate, other polling organizations took steps to reduce such wide variations in their results. One such step included manipulating the proportion of Democrats and Republicans in any given sample, but this method

17145-796: The way. Moving into the 1940s, the industry played a leading role in the ideological mobilization of the American people in fighting the Nazis and the Japanese in World War II. As part of that effort, they redefined the "American Way of Life" in terms of a commitment to free enterprise. "Advertisers", Lears concludes, "played a crucial hegemonic role in creating the consumer culture that dominated post-World War II American society." Opinion polls for many years were maintained through telecommunications or in person-to-person contact. Methods and techniques vary, though they are widely accepted in most areas. Over

17280-589: The winner (albeit not the extent of their winning margin), with the last two correctly predicting the winner of the popular vote (but not the Electoral College). In the United Kingdom, most polls failed to predict the Conservative election victories of 1970 and 1992 , and Labour's victory in February 1974 . In the 2015 election , virtually every poll predicted a hung parliament with Labour and

17415-440: The wording of the question. On some issues, question wording can result in quite pronounced differences between surveys. This can also, however, be a result of legitimately conflicted feelings or evolving attitudes, rather than a poorly constructed survey. A common technique to control for this bias is to rotate the order in which questions are asked. Many pollsters also split-sample. This involves having two different versions of

17550-461: The years, technological innovations have also influenced survey methods such as the availability of electronic clipboards and Internet based polling. Opinion polling developed into popular applications through popular thought, although response rates for some surveys declined. Also, the following has also led to differentiating results: Some polling organizations, such as Angus Reid Public Opinion , YouGov and Zogby use Internet surveys, where

17685-430: Was a clear tendency for polls which included mobile phones in their samples to show a much larger lead for Obama , than polls that did not. The potential sources of bias are: Some polling companies have attempted to get around that problem by including a "cellphone supplement". There are a number of problems with including cellphones in a telephone poll: A widely publicized failure of opinion polling to date in

17820-623: Was chosen as the defining point of the Prime Meridian at the International Meridian Conference in 1884. The United Kingdom lies between latitudes 49° and 61° N , and longitudes 9° W and 2° E . Northern Ireland shares a 224-mile (360 km) land boundary with the Republic of Ireland. The coastline of Great Britain is 11,073 miles (17,820 km) long, though measurements can vary greatly due to

17955-573: Was first identified in 2004, but came to prominence only during the 2008 US presidential election . In previous elections, the proportion of the general population using cell phones was small, but as this proportion has increased, there is concern that polling only landlines is no longer representative of the general population. In 2003, only 2.9% of households were wireless (cellphones only), compared to 12.8% in 2006. This results in " coverage error ". Many polling organisations select their sample by dialling random telephone numbers; however, in 2008, there

18090-470: Was formed in 1931. Nonetheless, "Britain was a very wealthy country, formidable in arms, ruthless in pursuit of its interests and sitting at the heart of a global production system." After Nazi Germany invaded Poland in 1939, Britain entered the Second World War . Winston Churchill became prime minister and head of a coalition government in 1940. Despite the defeat of its European allies in

18225-432: Was the first country in the world to use an approved COVID-19 vaccine , developing its own vaccine through a collaboration between Oxford University and AstraZeneca , which allowed the UK's vaccine rollout to be among the fastest in the world. The total area of the United Kingdom is approximately 94,354 square miles (244,376 km ), with a land area of 93,723 square miles (242,741 km ). The country occupies

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