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89-458: Industrial civilization has allowed a significant growth both in world population , thanks to mechanised agriculture and advances in modern medicine , and in the standard of living . Such a civilization is mostly dependent on fossil fuel , with efforts underway to find alternatives for energy production . Some areas have exhibited de-industrialization as certain industries go into decline, or are superseded. Industrial civilization refers to

178-403: A 70 percent probability the world population will not stabilize this century. Population, which had sort of fallen off the world's agenda, remains a very important issue." The table below shows historical and predicted regional population figures in millions. The availability of historical population figures varies by region. The following table gives estimates, in millions, of population in

267-515: A basic model from which to make broad population conjectures. The idea became taboo following the United Nations' 1994 International Conference on Population and Development , where framing human population growth as negatively impacting the natural environment became regarded as "anti-human". Toba catastrophe theory The Toba eruption (sometimes called the Toba supereruption or

356-524: A height of 32 km (20 mi). Petrological constraints on sulfur emission yielded a wide range from 1 × 10 to 1 × 10  g , depending on the existence of separate sulfur gas in the Toba magma chamber. The lower end of estimate is due to the low solubility of sulfur in the magma. Ice core records estimate the sulfur emission on the order of 1 × 10  g . Bill Rose and Craig Chesner of Michigan Technological University have estimated that

445-533: A lack of accurate records. Haub (1995) estimates that around 40% of those who have ever lived did not survive beyond their first birthday. Haub also stated that " life expectancy at birth probably averaged only about ten years for most of human history", which is not to be mistaken for the life expectancy after reaching adulthood. The latter equally depended on period, location and social standing, but calculations identify averages from roughly 30 years upward. The National Institute of Corrections estimates that

534-412: A large scale. Asia is the most populous continent, with its 4.64 billion inhabitants accounting for 60% of the world population. The world's two most populated countries, India and China, together constitute about 36% of the world's population. Africa is the second most populated continent, with around 1.34 billion people, or 17% of the world's population. Europe's 747 million people make up 10% of

623-424: A low of 7.4 billion to a high of more than 10.6 billion. Projected figures vary depending on underlying statistical assumptions and the variables used in projection calculations, especially the fertility and mortality variables. Long-range predictions to 2150 range from a population decline to 3.2 billion in the "low scenario", to "high scenarios" of 24.8 billion. One extreme scenario predicted

712-499: A massive increase to 256 billion by 2150, assuming the global fertility rate remained at its 1995 level of 3.04 children per woman; however, by 2010 the global fertility rate had declined to 2.52. There is no estimation for the exact day or month the world's population surpassed one or two billion. The points at which it reached three and four billion were not officially noted, but the International Database of

801-402: A population of over 139 million in 2020. In just one hundred years, the population of Brazil decupled (x10), from about 17 million in 1900, or about 1% of the world population in that year, to about 176 million in 2000, or almost 3% of the global population in the very early 21st century. Mexico's population grew from 13.6 million in 1900 to about 112 million in 2010. Between

890-454: A steady decline in population growth rate; the global population is expected to reach between 8.3 and 10.9 billion by 2050. 2003 UN Population Division population projections for the year 2150 range between 3.2 and 24.8 billion. One of many independent mathematical models supports the lower estimate, while a 2014 estimate forecasts between 9.3 and 12.6 billion in 2100, and continued growth thereafter. The 2019 Revision of

979-677: Is a part of Pleistocene interglacial-glacial cycle driven by variations in the earth's orbit. Ocean temperature cooled by 0.9 °C (1.6 °F). Sea level fell 60 m (200 ft). Northern Hemisphere ice sheets embarked on significant expansion and surpassed the extent of Last Glacial Maximum in eastern Europe , Northeast Asia and the North American Cordillera . Southern Hemisphere glaciation grew to its maximum extent during MIS 4. Australasian region , Africa and Europe were characterized by increasingly cold and arid environment. While Toba eruption occurred in

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1068-400: Is currently (2015–20) 140 million/year, is projected to peak during the period 2040–45 at 141 million/year and thereafter decline slowly to 126 million/year by 2100. The total number of deaths is currently 57 million/year and is projected to grow steadily to 121 million/year by 2100. 2012 United Nations projections show a continued increase in population in the near future with

1157-541: Is currently 57 million/year and is projected to grow steadily to 121 million/year by 2100. The median age of human beings as of 2020 is 31 years. Estimates of world population by their nature are an aspect of modernity , possible only since the Age of Discovery . Early estimates for the population of the world date to the 17th century: William Petty , in 1682, estimated the world population at 320 million (current estimates ranging close to twice this number); by

1246-428: Is given by the statistician Jorgen Randers, who argues that traditional projections insufficiently take into account the downward impact of global urbanization on fertility. Randers' "most likely scenario" reveals a peak in the world population in the early 2040s at about 8.1 billion people, followed by decline. Adrian Raftery, a University of Washington professor of statistics and of sociology, states that "there's

1335-658: Is known as bipolar seesaw . The start of GS20 cooling event corresponds to the start of Antarctic Isotope Maxima 19 (AIM19) warming event. GS20 was associated with iceberg discharges into the North Atlantic, thus it was also named Heinrich stadial 7a . Heinrich events tend to be longer, colder and with weaker AMOC in the Atlantic ocean than other DO stadials. From 74 to 58 kyr , Earth transitioned from interglacial marine isotope stage (MIS) 5 to glacial MIS 4, experiencing cooling and glacial expansion. This transition

1424-543: Is named Arabian Standstill and may have been caused by the severe cold arid conditions from the onset of MIS 4 and exacerbated by Toba super-eruption. African populations experienced a slightly earlier, milder bottleneck and recovered earlier. Luhya and Maasai people attained their lowest numbers around 70–80 kyr, while Yoruba people reached a nadir around 50 kyr, though the long-term declining trend already started before 200 kyr. The estimated remaining effective population sizes are around 10,000 individuals, larger than

1513-479: Is that as agriculture advances in creating more food, the population consequently increases—the Neolithic Revolution and Green Revolution often specifically provided as examples of such agricultural breakthroughs. Furthermore, certain scientific studies do lend evidence to food availability in particular being the dominant factor within a more recent timeframe. Other studies take it as

1602-642: Is the fact that average global birth rates , as well as mortality rates , are declining rapidly, as the nations of the world progress through the stages of the demographic transition, but both vary greatly between developed countries (where birth rates and mortality rates are often low) and developing countries (where birth and mortality rates typically remain high). Different ethnicities also display varying birth rates. Birth rate and mortality rates can change rapidly due to disease epidemics , wars and other mass catastrophes, or advances in medicine and public health . The UN's first report in 1951 showed that during

1691-573: Is the historical event that ushered in industrial civilization. The modern world has evolved further following development in mass production and information technology (allowing service economy , and information society ). Industrialisation is the process of any individual area being transformed. Industrial civilisation as a whole may have regions that still benefit from industrial societies , without being industrialised themselves, or having specialised in other ways (e.g. service economies ). World population In world demographics ,

1780-465: Is the largest language family by number of speakers. Standard Arabic is a language with no native speakers, but the total number of speakers is estimated at 274 million people. The largest religious categories in the world as of 2020 are estimated as follows: Christianity (31%), Islam (25%), Unaffiliated (16%) and Hinduism (15%). Six of the Earth's seven continents are permanently inhabited on

1869-598: Is thought to have been caused by severe ice age MIS 22 which marked the mid-Pleistocene climate transition with widespread aridity across Africa. Other research has cast doubt on an association between the Toba Caldera Complex and a genetic bottleneck. For example, ancient stone tools at the Jurreru Valley in southern India were found above and below a thick layer of ash from the Toba eruption and were very similar across these layers, suggesting that

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1958-417: Is unlikely that there will be another doubling of the global population in the 21st century. The total number of humans who have ever lived is estimated to be approximately 100 billion . Such estimates can only be rough approximations, as even modern population estimates are subject to uncertainty of around 3% to 5%. Kapitsa (1996) cites estimates ranging between 80 and 150 billion. The PRB puts

2047-593: The Black Death pandemic ; it took 200 years for European population figures to recover. The population of China decreased from 123 million in 1200 to 65 million in 1393, presumably from a combination of Mongol invasions, famine, and plague. Starting in AD 2, the Han dynasty of ancient China kept consistent family registers to properly assess the poll taxes and labor service duties of each household. In that year,

2136-852: The Indian Ocean and the Straits of Malacca . The air-fall of this eruption blanketed the Indian subcontinent in a layer of 5 cm (2.0 in) ash, the Arabian Sea in 1 mm (0.039 in), the South China Sea in 3.5 cm (1.4 in), and Central Indian Ocean Basin in 10 cm (3.9 in). Its horizon of ashfall covered an area of more than 38,000,000 km (15,000,000 sq mi) in 1 cm (0.39 in) or more thickness. In Sub-Saharan Africa , microscopic glass shards from this eruption are also discovered on

2225-654: The University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa supported her theory. In 1998, anthropologist Stanley H. Ambrose of the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign hypothesized that the Toba eruption caused a human population crash to only a few thousand surviving individuals, and the subsequent recovery was suppressed by the global glacial condition of MIS 4 until the climate eventually transitioned to the warmer condition of MIS 3 about 60,000 years ago, during which rapid human population expansion occurred. At least two other Homo lineages, H. neanderthalensis and Denisovans , survived

2314-603: The Youngest Toba eruption ) was a supervolcanic eruption that occurred about 74,000 years ago during the Late Pleistocene at the site of present-day Lake Toba in Sumatra , Indonesia . It was the last in a series of at least four caldera -forming eruptions at this location, with the earlier known caldera having formed around 1.2 million years ago. This last eruption had an estimated VEI of 8, making it

2403-651: The developing world have experienced extremely rapid population growth since the early 20th century, due to economic development and improvements in public health. China's population rose from approximately 430 million in 1850 to 580 million in 1953, and now stands at over 1.3 billion. The population of the Indian subcontinent , which was about 125 million in 1750, increased to 389 million in 1941; today, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are collectively home to about 1.63 billion people. Java , an island in Indonesia , had about 5 million inhabitants in 1815; it had

2492-484: The world population is the total number of humans currently alive. It was estimated by the United Nations to have exceeded eight billion in mid-November 2022. It took around 300,000 years of human prehistory and history for the human population to reach a billion and only 218 years more to reach 8 billion. The human population has experienced continuous growth following the Great Famine of 1315–1317 and

2581-602: The 16th century, maize and cassava have similarly replaced traditional African crops as the most important staple food crops grown on the continent. The pre-Columbian population of the Americas is uncertain; historian David Henige called it "the most unanswerable question in the world." By the end of the 20th century, scholarly consensus favored an estimate of roughly 55 million people, but numbers from various sources have ranged from 10 million to 100 million. Encounters between European explorers and populations in

2670-480: The 1920s and 2000s, Kenya's population grew from 2.9 million to 37 million. The UN estimated that the world population reached one billion for the first time in 1804. It was another 123 years before it reached two billion in 1927, but it took only 33 years to reach three billion in 1960. Thereafter, it took 14 years for the global population to reach four billion in 1974, 13 years to reach five billion in 1987, 12 years to reach six billion in 1999 and, according to

2759-616: The 20th century in Imperial Russia and the Soviet Union was marked by a succession of major wars, famines and other disasters which caused large-scale population losses (approximately 60 million excess deaths). After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia's population declined significantly – from 150 million in 1991 to 143 million in 2012 – but by 2013 this decline appeared to have halted. Many countries in

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2848-563: The European Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions , the life expectancy of children increased dramatically. The percentage of the children born in London who died before the age of five decreased from 74.5% in 1730–1749 to 31.8% in 1810–1829. Between 1700 and 1900, Europe's population increased from about 100 million to over 400 million. Altogether, the areas populated by people of European descent comprised 36% of

2937-453: The Toba eruption and subsequent MIS 4 ice age, as their latest presence are dated to ca. 40 kyr, and ca. 55 kyr. Other lineages including H. floresiensis , H. luzonensis , and Penghu 1 may have also survived through the eruption. More recently, reconstructions of human demographic history using whole-genome sequencing and discoveries of archaeological cultures with Toba ash layer add further light to how humans had fared during

3026-588: The UN estimates gives the "medium variant" population as; nearly 8.6 billion in 2030, about 9.7 billion in 2050 and about 10.9 billion in 2100. In December 2019, the German Foundation for World Population projected that the global population will reach 8 billion by 2023 as it increases by 156 every minute. In a modeled future projection by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation ,

3115-532: The USCB asserted that this occurred in March 2012. Since 1951, the UN has issued multiple projections of future world population, based on different assumptions. From 2000 to 2005, the UN consistently revised these projections downward, until the 2006 revision, issued on 14 March 2007, revised the 2050 mid-range estimate upwards by 273 million. Complicating the UN's and others' attempts to project future populations

3204-469: The United Nations reported that the rate of population growth continues to decline due to the ongoing global demographic transition. If this trend continues, the rate of growth may diminish to zero by 2100, concurrent with a world population plateau of 10.9 billion. However, this is only one of many estimates published by the UN; in 2009, UN population projections for 2050 ranged between around 8 billion and 10.5 billion. An alternative scenario

3293-568: The United States Census Bureau placed them in July 1959 and April 1974 respectively. The United Nations did determine, and commemorate, the "Day of 5 Billion" on 11 July 1987, and the "Day of 6 Billion" on 12 October 1999. The Population Division of the United Nations declared the " Day of Seven Billion " to be 31 October 2011. The United Nations marked the birth of the eight billionth person on 15 November 2022. As of 2020,

3382-583: The United States Census Bureau, 13 years to reach seven billion in March 2012. The United Nations, however, estimated that the world population reached seven billion in October 2011. According to the UN, the global population reached eight billion in November 2022, but because the growth rate is slowing, it will take another 15 years to reach around 9 billion by 2037 and 20 years to reach 10 billion by 2057. Alternative scenarios for 2050 range from

3471-407: The age of stone tools above the ash layer is constrained to be no older than 55 kyr. This age gap is suspected to be due to the removal of post-eruption sediments or decimation of the local population until re-occupation at 55 kyr. Additional archaeological evidence from southern and northern India also suggests a lack of evidence for effects of the eruption on local populations, causing the authors of

3560-482: The backdrop of rapid climate transitions of GS20 and MIS 4 triggered by changes in ocean currents and insolation , whether the eruption played any role in accelerating these events is much more debated. South China Sea marine records of climate, sampled at every centennial interval, shows 1 °C (1.8 °F) cooling above Toba ash layer for a thousand years but the authors concede that it may just be GS20. Arabian Sea marine records confirm that Toba ash occurred after

3649-537: The broader state of civilization, which spans multiple societies; industrial society just to specific segments (within the civilization) dependent on manufacturing jobs, whilst industrial civilisation as a whole involves many regions interdependent (via international trade ) specialized in different ways, including information society and service economy . Note that these societies are still dependent on industrial civilization for their goods, and food imports coming from mechanised agriculture. The Industrial Revolution

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3738-512: The carrying capacity → faster population growth → accelerating growth of the number of potential inventors → faster technological advance → hence, the faster growth of the Earth's carrying capacity for people, and so on. The transition from hyperbolic growth to slower rates of growth is related to the demographic transition. According to the Russian demographer Sergey Kapitsa , the world population grew between 67,000 BC and 1965 according to

3827-437: The combined eastern and western Roman Empire in the 4th century AD. The Plague of Justinian caused Europe's population to drop by around 50% between the 6th and 8th centuries AD. The population of Europe was more than 70 million in 1340. From 1340 to 1400, the world's population fell from an estimated 443 million to 350–375 million, with the Indian subcontinent suffering the most tremendous loss and Europe suffering

3916-559: The dust clouds from the eruption did not wipe out this local population. However, another site in India, the Middle Son Valley, exhibits evidence of a major population decline and it has been suggested that the abundant springs of the Jurreru Valley may have offered its inhabitants unique protection. At the Jurreru Valley in southern India, Middle Paleolithic stone tools below the Toba ash layer are dated by OSL to 77±4 kyr, while

4005-630: The earliest mtDNA studies. This severe non-African contraction is consistent with founder effect caused by Out-of-Africa dispersal. As a small group with a size of a few thousand people migrated from the African continent into the Near East, the drastic reduction in numbers imprinted on non-African genomic diversity. Genetic analysis identified 56 selective sweeps related to cold adaptations in non-African populations, of which 31 sweeps occurred during 72–97 kyr. This event of closely timed selections

4094-672: The end of the Black Death in 1350, when it was nearly 370,000,000. The highest global population growth rates , with increases of over 1.8% per year, occurred between 1955 and 1975, peaking at 2.1% between 1965 and 1970. The growth rate declined to 1.1% between 2015 and 2020 and is projected to decline further in the 21st century. The global population is still increasing, but there is significant uncertainty about its long-term trajectory due to changing fertility and mortality rates. The UN Department of Economics and Social Affairs projects between 9 and 10 billion people by 2050 and gives an 80% confidence interval of 10–12 billion by

4183-430: The end of the 21st century, with a growth rate by then of zero. Other demographers predict that the human population will begin to decline in the second half of the 21st century. The total number of births globally is currently (2015–2020) 140 million/year, which is projected to peak during the period 2040–2045 at 141 million/year and then decline slowly to 126 million/year by 2100. The total number of deaths

4272-441: The entire human genome has shown that the effective human population size was less than 26,000 at 1.2 million years ago; possible explanations for the low population size of human ancestors may include repeated population crashes or periodic replacement events from competing Homo subspecies. Whole-genome analysis similarly recovers very low African population sizes around 1 million years ago. This 1 million year old bottleneck

4361-604: The environmental effects of the eruption were mild and limited to less than a decade in East Africa, but these studies are questioned due to sediment mixing which would have diminished the cooling signal. Environmental records from a Middle Stone Age site in Ethiopia, however, shows that a severe drought occurred concurrently with Toba ash layer which altered early human foraging behaviours . No Toba ash has been identified in ice core records, but four sulfate events within

4450-475: The eruption and the following GS20 and MIS 4 ice age. Recent analyses apply Markov models to the complete set of genetic material to infer human population history. In non-African populations, studies recover a long-term steep decline in numbers starting 200 kyr and reaching the lowest point around 40–60 kyr. During this bottleneck non-African populations experienced 5- to 15-fold reduction, with only 1,000–3,000 remaining individuals at 50 kyr, consistent with

4539-430: The eruption caused a severe global volcanic winter of six to ten years and contributed to a 1,000-year-long cooling episode, resulting in a genetic bottleneck in humans . However, some physical evidence disputes the association with the millennium-long cold event and genetic bottleneck, and some consider the theory disproven. In 1972, an analysis of human hemoglobins found very few variants, and to account for

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4628-407: The eruption to 73,880 ± 320 and 73,700 ± 300 years ago. Five distinct magma bodies were activated within a few centuries before the eruption. The eruption commenced with small and limited air-fall and was directly followed by the main phase of ignimbrite flows. The ignimbrite phase is characterized by low eruption fountain, but co-ignimbrite column developed on top of pyroclastic flows reached

4717-468: The estimated non-African size during their bottleneck. Unlike the non-African populations, there is no consensus as to the cause of African bottleneck. Proposed causes include climatic deterioration (from MIS 5, Toba eruption, GS20 and/or MIS 4), reduction in substructure across African populations, and founder effects from the dispersal within Africa. Earlier genetic analysis of Alu sequences across

4806-483: The figure at 117 billion as of 2020, estimating that the current world population is 6.7% of all the humans who have ever lived. Haub (1995) prepared another figure, updated in 2002 and 2011; the 2011 figure was approximately 107 billion. Haub characterized this figure as an estimate that required "selecting population sizes for different points from antiquity to the present and applying assumed birth rates to each period". Robust population data only exist for

4895-418: The following formula: where According to linear interpolation and extrapolation of UNDESA population estimates , the world population has doubled, or will double, in the years listed in the tables below (with two different starting points). During the 2nd millennium , each doubling took roughly half as long as the previous doubling, fitting the hyperbolic growth model mentioned above. However, after 2024, it

4984-460: The global fertility rate was estimated at 2.44 children per woman. In June 2012, British researchers calculated the total weight of Earth's human population as approximately 287 million tonnes (630 billion pounds), with the average person weighing around 62 kilograms (137 lb). The IMF estimated nominal 2021 gross world product at US$ 94.94 trillion, giving an annual global per capita figure of around US$ 12,290. Around 9.3% of

5073-587: The global sex ratio is approximately 1.01 males to 1 female. Approximately 24.7% of the global population is aged under 15, while 65.2% is aged 15–64 and 10.1% is aged 65 or over. The median age of the world's population is estimated to be 31 years in 2020, and is expected to rise to 37.9 years by 2050. According to the World Health Organization , the global average life expectancy is 73.3 years as of 2020, with women living an average of 75.9 years and men approximately 70.8 years. In 2010,

5162-490: The global population was projected to peak in 2064 at 9.73 billion people and decline to 8.79 billion in 2100. Some analysts have questioned the sustainability of further world population growth, highlighting the growing pressures on the environment , global food supplies, and energy resources. In 1975, Sebastian von Hoerner proposed a formula for population growth which represented hyperbolic growth with an infinite population in 2025. The hyperbolic growth of

5251-549: The higher emission. Strong decrease in precipitation occurs in high emission. Negative temperature anomalies return to less than 1 °C (1.8 °F) within 3 and 6 years for each emission scenario after the eruption. But so far no model can simulate aerosol microphysical processes with sufficient accuracy, empirical constraints from historical eruptions suggest that aerosol size may substantially reduce magnitude of cooling to less than 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) no matter how much sulfur emitted. The Toba catastrophe theory holds that

5340-426: The ice strata have been proposed to possibly represent the deposition of aerosols from Toba eruption. One sulfate event at 73.75–74.16 kyr, which has all the characteristics of the Toba eruption, is among the largest sulfate loadings that have ever been identified. In the ice core records, GS20 cooling was already underway by the time of sulfate deposition, nonetheless a 110-year period of accelerated cooling followed

5429-648: The largest-known explosive volcanic eruption in the Quaternary , and one of the largest known explosive eruptions in the Earth's history . The exact date of the eruption is unknown, but the pattern of ash deposits suggests that it occurred during the northern summer because only the summer monsoon could have deposited Toba ashfall in the South China Sea. The eruption lasted perhaps 9 to 14 days. The most recent two high-precision argon–argon datings dated

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5518-670: The last two or three centuries. Until the late 18th century, few governments had ever performed an accurate census. In many early attempts, such as in Ancient Egypt and the Persian Empire , the focus was on counting merely a subset of the population for purposes of taxation or military service. Thus, there is a significant margin of error when estimating ancient global populations. Pre-modern infant mortality rates are another critical factor for such an estimate; these rates are very difficult to estimate for ancient times due to

5607-480: The late 18th century, estimates ranged close to one billion (consistent with current estimates). More refined estimates, broken down by continents, were published in the first half of the 19th century, at 600 million to 1 billion in the early 1800s and 800 million to 1 billion in the 1840s. It is difficult for estimates to be better than rough approximations, as even current population estimates are fraught with uncertainties from 3% to 5%. Estimates of

5696-486: The lessening of the mortality rate in many countries by improved sanitation and medical advances , and a massive increase in agricultural productivity attributed to the Green Revolution . By 2000, there were approximately ten times as many people on Earth as there had been in 1700. However, this rapid growth did not last. During the period 2000–2005, the United Nations estimates that the world's population

5785-425: The long-standing trend on all inhabited continents, as well as in most individual states. During the 20th century, the global population saw its greatest increase in known history, rising from about 1.6 billion in 1900 to over 6 billion in 2000 as the whole world entered the early phases of what has come to be called the " demographic transition ". Some of the key factors contributing to this increase included

5874-484: The low frequency of variation human population must have been as low as a few thousand until very recently. More genetic studies confirmed an effective population on the order of 10,000 for much of human history. Subsequent research on the differences in human mitochondrial DNA sequences dated a rapid growth from a small effective population size of 1,000 to 10,000, sometime between 35 and 65 kyr. In 1993, science journalist Ann Gibbons posited that population growth

5963-573: The north Atlantic ocean that started around the time of Toba eruption. The timing of the initiation of GS20 is dated to 74.0–74.2 kyr, and the entire event lasted about 1,500 years. It is the stadial part of Dansgaard–Oeschger event 20 (DO20), commonly explained by an abrupt reduction in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Weaker AMOC caused warming in Southern Ocean and Antarctica , and this asynchrony

6052-491: The number of people who have ever lived will rise to 121 billion by 2050, 4 billion more than their 2021 estimate. Individuals from a wide range of academic fields and political backgrounds have proposed that, like all other animal populations, any human population (and, by extension, the world population) predictably grows and shrinks according to available food supply, growing during an abundance of food and shrinking in times of scarcity. This idea may run counter to

6141-525: The onset of GS20 but also that GS20 is not colder than GS21 in the records, from which authors conclude that the eruption did not intensify GS20 cooling. Dense sampling of environmental records, at every 6 – 9 year interval, in Lake Malawi, show no cooling-induced change in lake ecology and in grassy woodlands after the deposition of Toba ash, but cooling-forced aridity killed high elevation afromontane forests . The Lake Malawi studies concluded that

6230-513: The past. The data for 1750 to 1900 are from the UN report "The World at Six Billion" whereas the data from 1950 to 2015 are from a UN data sheet. Using the above figures, the change in population from 2010 to 2015 was: Long-term global population growth is difficult to predict. The United Nations and the US Census Bureau both give different estimates – according to the UN, the world population reached seven billion in late 2011, while

6319-443: The period 1950–55 the crude birth rate was 36.9/1,000 population and the crude death rate was 19.1/1,000.  By the period 2015–20, both numbers had dropped significantly to 18.5/1,000 for the crude birth rate and 7.5/1,000 for the crude death rate. UN projections for 2100 show a further decline in the crude birth rate to 11.6/1,000 and an increase in the crude death rate to 11.2/1,000. The total number of births globally

6408-820: The popular thinking that, as population grows, food supply must also be increased to support the growing population; instead, the claim here is that growing population is the result of a growing food supply. Notable proponents of this notion include: agronomist and insect ecologist David Pimentel , behavioral scientist Russell Hopfenberg (the former two publishing a study on the topic in 2001), anthropologist and activist Virginia Abernethy , ecologist Garrett Hardin , science writer and anthropologist Peter Farb , journalist Richard Manning , environmental biologist Alan D. Thornhill, cultural critic and writer Daniel Quinn , and anarcho-primitivist John Zerzan . Scientists generally acknowledge that at least one significant factor contributing to population growth (or overpopulation)

6497-507: The population of Western Han was recorded as 57,671,400 individuals in 12,366,470 households, decreasing to 47,566,772 individuals in 9,348,227 households by AD 146, towards the end of the Han dynasty . From 200 to 400, the world population fell from an estimated 257 million to 206 million, with China suffering the greatest loss. At the founding of the Ming dynasty in 1368, China's population

6586-421: The population of the world at the time agriculture emerged in around 10,000 BC have ranged between 1 million and 15 million. Even earlier, genetic evidence suggests humans may have gone through a population bottleneck of between 1,000 and 10,000 people about 70,000 BC, according to the now largely discredited Toba catastrophe theory . By contrast, it is estimated that around 50–60 million people lived in

6675-505: The range of natural variability 5 years after the eruption. An initiation of 1,000-year cold period or ice age is not supported by the model. Two other emission scenarios, 1 × 10  g and 1 × 10  g , are investigated using state-of-art simulations provided by the Community Earth System Model . Maximum global mean cooling is 2.3 °C (4.1 °F) for the lower emission and 4.1 °C (7.4 °F) for

6764-611: The rest of the world often introduced local epidemics of extraordinary virulence. According to the most extreme scholarly claims, as many as 90% of the Native American population of the New World died of Old World diseases such as smallpox , measles , and influenza . Over the centuries, the Europeans had developed high degrees of immunity to these diseases, while the indigenous peoples had no such immunity. During

6853-599: The south coast of South Africa , in the lowlands of northwest Ethiopia , in Lake Malawi , and in Lake Chala . In South China , Toba tephras is found in Huguangyan Maar Lake . The subsequent collapse formed a caldera that filled with water, creating Lake Toba. The island in the center of the lake is formed by a resurgent dome . Greenland stadial 20 (GS20) is a millennium-long cold event in

6942-641: The study to conclude, "many forms of life survived the supereruption, contrary to other research which has suggested significant animal extinctions and genetic bottlenecks". However, some researchers have questioned the techniques utilized to date artifacts to the period subsequent to the Toba supervolcano. The Toba Catastrophe also coincides with the disappearance of the Skhul and Qafzeh hominins . Evidence from pollen analysis has suggested prolonged deforestation in South Asia, and some researchers have suggested that

7031-441: The sulfate event, and the authors interpret this acceleration as AMOC weakened by the Toba eruption. The modeled climate effects of the Toba eruption hinges on the mass of sulfurous gases and aerosol microphysical processes. Modeling on an emission of 8.5 × 10  g of sulfur, which is 100 times the 1991 Pinatubo sulphur , volcanic winter has a maximum global mean cooling of 3.5 °C (6.3 °F) and returns gradually within

7120-487: The total amount of material released in the eruption was at least 2,800 km (670 cu mi) —about 2,000 km (480 cu mi) of ignimbrite that flowed over the ground, and approximately 800 km (190 cu mi) that fell as ash mostly to the west. However, as more outcrops become available, the most recent estimate of eruptive volume is 3,800 km (910 cu mi) dense-rock equivalent (DRE), of which 1,800 km (430 cu mi)

7209-684: The world population live in extreme poverty , subsisting on less than US$ 1.9 per day; around 8.9% are malnourished . 87% of the world's over-15s are considered literate . As of January 2024, there were about 5 billion global Internet users, constituting 66% of the world population. The Han Chinese are the world's largest single ethnic group, constituting over 19% of the global population in 2011. The world's most-spoken languages are English (1.132B), Mandarin Chinese (1.117B), Hindi (615M), Spanish (534M) and French (280M). More than three billion people speak an Indo-European language, which

7298-420: The world population observed until the 1970s was later correlated to a non-linear second-order positive feedback between demographic growth and technological development. This feedback can be described as follows: technological advance → increase in the carrying capacity of land for people → demographic growth → more people → more potential inventors → acceleration of technological advance → accelerating growth of

7387-676: The world's population as of 2020,while the Latin American and Caribbean regions are home to around 653 million (8%). Northern America, primarily consisting of the United States and Canada, has a population of around 368 million (5%), and Oceania, the least populated region, has about 42 million inhabitants (0.5%). Antarctica only has a very small, fluctuating population of about 1200 people based mainly in polar science stations . Approximately 4.6 billion people live in these ten countries, representing around 57% of

7476-531: The world's population as of July 2023. The UN estimates that by 2023 India will have overtaken China in having the largest population. The tables below list the world's most densely populated countries, both in absolute terms and in comparison to their total populations, as of November 2022. All areas and populations are from The World Factbook , unless otherwise noted. [REDACTED]   Palestine Population size fluctuates at differing rates in differing regions. Nonetheless, population growth has been

7565-660: The world's population in 1900. Population growth in the Western world became more rapid after the introduction of vaccination and other improvements in medicine and sanitation . Improved material conditions led to the population of Britain increasing from 10 million to 40 million in the 19th century. The population of the United Kingdom reached 60 million in 2006. The United States saw its population grow from around 5.3 million in 1800 to 106 million in 1920, exceeding 307 million in 2010. The first half of

7654-547: Was deposited as ash fall and 2,000 km (480 cu mi) as ignimbrite , making this eruption the largest during the Quaternary period. Previous volume estimates have ranged from 2,000 km (480 cu mi) to 6,000 km (1,400 cu mi). Inside the caldera, the maximum thickness of pyroclastic flows is over 600 m (2,000 ft). The outflow sheet originally covered an area of 20,000–30,000 km (7,700–11,600 sq mi) with thickness nearly 100 m (330 ft), likely reaching into

7743-561: Was growing at an annual rate of 1.3% (equivalent to around 80 million people), down from a peak of 2.1% during the period 1965–1970. Globally, although the population growth rate has been steadily declining from its peak in 1968, growth still remains high in Sub-Saharan Africa . In fact, during the 2010s, Japan and some countries in Europe began to reduce in population , due to sub-replacement fertility rates. In 2019,

7832-475: Was reported to be close to 60 million; toward the end of the dynasty in 1644, it may have approached 150 million. England's population reached an estimated 5.6 million in 1650, up from an estimated 2.6 million in 1500. New crops that were brought to Asia and Europe from the Americas by Portuguese and Spanish colonists in the 16th century are believed to have contributed to population growth. Since their introduction to Africa by Portuguese traders in

7921-403: Was suppressed by the cold climate of the last Pleistocene Ice Age, possibly exacerbated by the Toba super-eruption which at the time was dated to between 73 and 75 kyr near the beginning of glacial period MIS 4. The subsequent explosive human expansion was believed to be the result of the end of the ice age. Geologist Michael R. Rampino of New York University and volcanologist Stephen Self of

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