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45-581: The Moenave was deposited on an erosion surface on the Chinle Formation following an early Jurassic uplift and unconformity that represents about ten million years of missing sedimentation. Periodic incursions of shallow seas from the north during the Jurassic flooded parts of Wyoming, Montana, and a northeast–southwest trending trough on the Utah/Idaho border. The Moenave was deposited in

90-521: A pandemic ). There is no official definition of a recession, according to the IMF . In the United States , a recession is defined as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the market, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP , real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales." The European Union has adopted a similar definition. In

135-445: A recession is a business cycle contraction that occurs when there is a period of broad decline in economic activity. Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending (an adverse demand shock ). This may be triggered by various events, such as a financial crisis , an external trade shock, an adverse supply shock , the bursting of an economic bubble , or a large-scale anthropogenic or natural disaster (e.g.

180-409: A balance sheet recession would be appropriate. However, Krugman argued that monetary policy could also affect savings behavior, as inflation or credible promises of future inflation (generating negative real interest rates) would encourage less savings. In other words, people would tend to spend more rather than save if they believe inflation is on the horizon. In more technical terms, Krugman argues that

225-513: A comprehensive assessment of the depth and breadth of economic downturns, enabling policymakers to devise more effective strategies for economic stabilization and recovery. Recessions in the United Kingdom are generally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, as measured by the seasonal adjusted quarter-on-quarter figures for real GDP . The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) defines

270-463: A key demand component of GDP, fell enormously (22% of GDP) between 1990 and its peak decline in 2003. Japanese firms overall became net savers after 1998, as opposed to borrowers. Koo argues that it was massive fiscal stimulus (borrowing and spending by the government) that offset this decline and enabled Japan to maintain its level of GDP. In his view, this avoided a U.S. type Great Depression , in which U.S. GDP fell by 46%. He argued that monetary policy

315-502: A liquidity trap is expanding the money supply via quantitative easing or other techniques in which money is effectively printed to purchase assets, thereby creating inflationary expectations that cause savers to begin spending again. Government stimulus spending and mercantilist policies to stimulate exports and reduce imports are other techniques to stimulate demand. He estimated in March 2010 that developed countries representing 70% of

360-833: A recession as a period of at least two years during which the cumulative output gap reaches at least 2% of GDP, and the output gap is at least 1% for at least one year. Recession can be defined as decline of GDP per capita instead of decline of total GDP. A recession encompasses multiple attributes that often occur simultaneously and encompasses declines in component measures of economic activity, such as GDP, including consumption, investment, government spending, and net export activity. These summary measures are indicative of underlying drivers such as employment levels and skills, household savings rates, corporate investment decisions, interest rates, demographics, and government policies (Smith, 2018; Johnson & Thompson, 2020). By examining these factors comprehensively, economists gain insights into

405-493: A recession including the availability heuristic , the money illusion , and normalcy bias . Excessive levels of indebtedness or the bursting of a real estate or financial asset price bubble can cause what is called a "balance sheet recession". This occurs when large numbers of consumers or corporations pay down debt (i.e., save) rather than spend or invest, which slows the economy. The term balance sheet derives from an accounting identity that holds that assets must always equal

450-427: A recession. Economist Hyman Minsky also described a "paradox of deleveraging" as financial institutions that have too much leverage (debt relative to equity) cannot all de-leverage simultaneously without significant declines in the value of their assets. In April 2009, U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen discussed these paradoxes: "Once this massive credit crunch hit, it didn't take long before we were in

495-619: A recession. The recession, in turn, deepened the credit crunch as demand and employment fell, and credit losses of financial institutions surged. Indeed, we have been in the grips of precisely this adverse feedback loop for more than a year. A process of balance sheet deleveraging has spread to nearly every corner of the economy. Consumers are pulling back on purchases, especially durable goods, to build their savings. Businesses are cancelling planned investments and laying off workers to preserve cash. And financial institutions are shrinking assets to bolster capital and improve their chances of weathering

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540-459: A reliable recession predictor. The curve began re-steepening toward positive territory in June 2024, as it had at other points during that inversion; in every previous inversion they examined; Deutsche Bank analysts found the curve had re-steepened before a recession began. The following variables and indicators are used by economists, like e.g. Paul Krugman or Joseph Stiglitz , to try to predict

585-428: A rock or for different rock types. Rate of rock surface recession can be measured by using reference points or reference planes and measure the distance among those points and plane over the years. Rock surface erosion rate can also be measured using Micro-Erosion Meter(MEM). This triangular instrument is placed on three studs that are permanently fixed into the rock surface to provide a measurement site. The extension of

630-415: A self-reinforcing downward cycle, bringing about or worsening a recession. Consumer confidence is one measure used to evaluate economic sentiment. The term animal spirits has been used to describe the psychological factors underlying economic activity. Keynes, in his The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money , was the first economist to claim that such emotional mindsets significantly affect

675-525: A variety of river, lake, and flood-plain environments, near the ancient Lake Dixie . The oldest beds of this formation belong to the Dinosaur Canyon Member, a reddish, slope-forming rock layer with thin beds of siltstone that are interbedded with mudstone and fine sandstone. The Dinosaur Canyon, with a local thickness of 140 to 375 feet (43 to 114 m), was probably laid down in slow-moving streams, ponds and large lakes. Evidence for this

720-455: Is in cross-bedding of the sediments and large numbers of fish fossils. The upper member of the Moenave is the pale reddish-brown with a thickness of 75 to 150 feet (23 to 46 m) and cliff-forming Springdale Sandstone. It was deposited in swifter, larger, and more voluminous streams than the older Dinosaur Canyon Member. Fossils of large sturgeon -like freshwater fish have been found in

765-522: Is not an official designation" and that instead, "The designation of a recession is the province of a committee of experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research". The European Union, akin to the NBER's methodology, has embraced a definition of recession that integrates GDP alongside a spectrum of macroeconomic indicators, including employment and various other metrics. This approach allows for

810-627: Is referred to as an economic depression , although some argue that their causes and cures can be different. As an informal shorthand, economists sometimes refer to different recession shapes , such as V-shaped , U-shaped , L-shaped and W-shaped recessions. The type and shape of recessions are distinctive. In the US, v-shaped, or short-and-sharp contractions followed by rapid and sustained recovery, occurred in 1954 and 1990–1991; U-shaped (prolonged slump) in 1974–1975, and W-shaped, or double-dip recessions in 1949 and 1980–1982. Japan's 1993–1994 recession

855-541: The (inverted) yield curve appear to be more useful to predict a recession ahead of time than other variables, no single variable has proven to be an always reliable predictor whether recessions will actually (soon) appear, let alone predicting their sharpness and severity in terms of duration. The longest and deepest Treasury yield curve inversion in history began in July 2022, as the Federal Reserve sharply increased

900-469: The Bureau of Labor Statistics Julius Shiskin suggested that a rough translation of the bureau's qualitative definition of a recession into a quantitative one that almost anyone can use might run like this: Over the years, some commentators dropped most of Shiskin's "recession-spotting" criteria for the simplistic rule-of-thumb of a decline in real GNI for two consecutive quarters. In the United States ,

945-462: The United Kingdom and Canada , a recession is defined as negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters. Governments usually respond to recessions by adopting expansionary macroeconomic policies , such as increasing money supply and decreasing interest rates or increasing government spending and decreasing taxation . In a 1974 article by The New York Times , Commissioner of

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990-450: The fed funds rate to combat the 2021–2023 inflation surge . Despite widespread predictions by economists and market analysts of an imminent recession, none had materialized by July 2024, economic growth remained steady, and a Reuters survey of economists that month found they expected the economy to continue growing for the next two years. An earlier survey of bond market strategists found a majority no longer believed an inverted curve to be

1035-608: The private sector as it pays down its debt. For example, economist Richard Koo wrote that Japan's "Great Recession" that began in 1990 was a "balance sheet recession". It was triggered by a collapse in land and stock prices, which caused Japanese firms to have negative equity , meaning their assets were worth less than their liabilities. Despite zero interest rates and expansion of the money supply to encourage borrowing, Japanese corporations in aggregate opted to pay down their debts from their own business earnings rather than borrow to invest as firms typically do. Corporate investment,

1080-775: The stratigraphic record are known as unconformities , but not all unconformities are buried erosion surfaces. Erosion surfaces vary in scale and can be formed on a mountain range or a rock. Particularly large and flat erosion surfaces receive the names of peneplain , paleoplain , planation surface or pediplain . An example of erosion surface is road surface erosion which is caused by natural and anthropogenic factors. Erosion surface can be measured through direct, contact measurement methods and indirect, non-contact measurement methods. Just like mountains and rocks, erosion can also occur on unsealed roads due to natural and anthropogenic factors. Road surface erosion could be caused by snowfall, rainfall and wind. The material and hydraulic of

1125-661: The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is generally seen as the authority for dating US recessions. The NBER, a private economic research organization, defines an economic recession as: "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP , real income , employment, industrial production , and wholesale - retail sales ". The NBER also explains that: "a recession begins when

1170-759: The beds of the Springdale Sandstone. The next member in the Moenave Formation is the thin-bedded Whitmore Point, which is made of mudstone and shale . The lower red cliffs visible from the Zion Human History Museum (until 2000 the Zion Canyon Visitor Center) and the St. George Dinosaur Discovery Site , discovered on February 26, 2000, are accessible examples of this formation. Dinosaur remains are among

1215-480: The complex dynamics that contribute to economic downturns and can formulate effective strategies for mitigating their impact (Anderson, 2019; Patel, 2017). Economist Richard C. Koo wrote that under ideal conditions, a country's economy should have the household sector as net savers and the corporate sector as net borrowers, with the government budget nearly balanced and net exports near zero. A severe (GDP down by 10%) or prolonged (three or four years) recession

1260-410: The current storm. Once again, Minsky understood this dynamic. He spoke of the paradox of deleveraging, in which precautions that may be smart for individuals and firms—and indeed essential to return the economy to a normal state—nevertheless magnify the distress of the economy as a whole." There are many reasons why recessions happen. One overall reason can be lack of demand due to sharp developments in

1305-510: The decline in property values experienced during the subprime mortgage crisis. Further, reduced consumption due to higher household leverage can account for a significant decline in employment levels. Policies that help reduce mortgage debt or household leverage could therefore have stimulative effects (Smith & Johnson, 2012). A liquidity trap is a Keynesian theory that a situation can develop in which interest rates reach near zero ( zero interest-rate policy ) yet do not effectively stimulate

1350-486: The economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its through." The NBER is considered the official arbiter of recession start and end dates for the United States. The Bureau of Economic Analysis , an independent federal agency that provides official macroeconomic and industry statistics, says "the often-cited identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth

1395-442: The economy. Economist Robert J. Shiller wrote that the term "refers also to the sense of trust we have in each other, our sense of fairness in economic dealings, and our sense of the extent of corruption and bad faith. When animal spirits are on ebb, consumers do not want to spend and businesses do not want to make capital expenditures or hire people." Behavioral economics has also explained many psychological biases that may trigger

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1440-475: The economy. In theory, near-zero interest rates should encourage firms and consumers to borrow and spend. However, if too many individuals or corporations focus on saving or paying down debt rather than spending, lower interest rates have less effect on investment and consumption behavior; increasing the money supply is like " pushing on a string ". Economist Paul Krugman described the U.S. 2009 recession and Japan's lost decade as liquidity traps. One remedy to

1485-558: The following are considered possible predictors: Manufacturing: Industrial Production: Chemical Activity: Transportation: Corporate Profits: Employment: Personal Income: Household Savings and Consumer Debt: Retail Sales, Consumer Confidence and Consumer Expenditures: Housing and non-residential construction: Credit Markets: Business Expectations: Margin of stock market traders: Asset Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Unorthodox Recession Indicators: Overview of recession indicators: Sahm Recession Indicator signals

1530-449: The following categories: Economic factors: Financial factors: External shocks Summary: Why recessions happen is a complex phenomena often resulting from a interplay of various factors. While these factors can individually contribute to a recession, the cumulative impact of several occurring simultaneously can significantly amplify the negative effect on the economy. Recessions are very challenging to predict. While some variables like

1575-584: The fossils that have been recovered from the formation, with only one species-level taxon, Protosuchus richardsoni , based on body fossils . The 4 members of the Glen Canyon Group , from youngest (top member) to oldest (bottom member), are: Erosion surface In geology and geomorphology , an erosion surface is a surface of rock or regolith that was formed by erosion and not by construction (e.g. lava flows, sediment deposition ) nor fault displacement . Erosional surfaces within

1620-507: The possibility of a recession: Except for the above, there are no known completely reliable predictors. Analysis by Prakash Loungani of the International Monetary Fund found that only two of the sixty recessions around the world during the 1990s had been predicted by a consensus of economists one year earlier, while there were zero consensus predictions one year earlier for the 49 recessions during 2009. However,

1665-419: The prices of the inputs used in producing goods and services. Another main reason can be problems e.g. in financial markets. Because recessions have many likely explanations, it is demanding to predict them. Some variables might at first glance be the causes of recessions, but they could also be the results of a recession, which means they are endogenous to recessions. One can summarize the causes of recessions in

1710-484: The private sector savings curve is elastic even during a balance sheet recession (responsive to changes in real interest rates), disagreeing with Koo's view that it is inelastic (non-responsive to changes in real interest rates). A July 2012 survey of balance sheet recession research reported that consumer demand and employment are affected by household leverage levels. Both durable and non-durable goods consumption declined as households moved from low to high leverage with

1755-473: The probe is then used to measure erosion. Indirect, non-contact measurement methods include laser scanning and digital photogrammetry . While laser scanning requires many specialist and expensive equipment, repeat photography and digital photogrammetry can also be used to obtain data for researchers with a much smaller budget. This erosion article is a stub . You can help Misplaced Pages by expanding it . Recession Heterodox In economics ,

1800-500: The road erosion rates. The friction caused by moving vehicles could potentially lead to crushing and abrasion , thus break down the coarse particles on the road surface. Slope steepness is another important factor in surface erosion--steeper roads tend to have higher erosion rates. There are two types of methods to measure the rate of surface change: direct, contact measurement methods and indirect, non-contact measurement methods. These measurement could be taken for different components of

1845-481: The road surface, road slope, traffic, construction, and maintenance could also potentially affect road surface erosion rate. During winter, snow cover slows down erosion rate by preventing direct contact between the raindrop and the road surface. For example, in the mountains of Idaho , U.S., snowfall caused less than 10% while rainfall caused 90% of total annual sediment production on the road surface. In addition to natural factors, high traffic volume can also speed up

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1890-556: The sum of liabilities plus equity. If asset prices fall below the value of the debt incurred to purchase them, then the equity must be negative, meaning the consumer or corporation is insolvent. Economist Paul Krugman wrote in 2014 that "the best working hypothesis seems to be that the financial crisis was only one manifestation of a broader problem of excessive debt—that it was a so-called "balance sheet recession". In Krugman's view, such crises require debt reduction strategies combined with higher government spending to offset declines from

1935-421: The world's GDP were caught in a liquidity trap. Behavior that may be optimal for an individual (e.g., saving more during adverse economic conditions) can be detrimental if too many individuals pursue the same behavior, as ultimately, one person's consumption is another person's income. Too many consumers attempting to save (or pay down debt) simultaneously is called the paradox of thrift and can cause or deepen

1980-489: Was U-shaped and its 8-out-of-9 quarters of contraction in 1997–1999 can be described as L-shaped. Korea , Hong Kong and South-east Asia experienced U-shaped recessions in 1997–1998, although Thailand 's eight consecutive quarters of decline should be termed L-shaped. Recessions have psychological and confidence aspects. For example, if companies expect economic activity to slow, they may reduce employment levels and save money rather than invest. Such expectations can create

2025-438: Was ineffective because there was limited demand for funds while firms paid down their liabilities. In a balance sheet recession, GDP declines by the amount of debt repayment and un-borrowed individual savings, leaving government stimulus spending as the primary remedy. Krugman discussed the balance sheet recession concept in 2010, agreeing with Koo's situation assessment and view that sustained deficit spending when faced with

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