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59-656: The New Economy refers to the ongoing development of the American economic system. It evolved from the notions of the classical economy via the transition from a manufacturing-based economy to a service-based economy, and has been driven by new technology and innovations. This popular use of the term emerged during the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, where high growth, low inflation, and high employment of this period led to optimistic predictions and flawed business plans. A 1983 cover article in Time , "The New Economy", described

118-436: A general glut in the job market. University enrollment for computer-related degrees dropped noticeably. Aeron chairs , which retailed for $ 1,100 each, were liquidated en masse. As growth in the technology sector stabilized, companies consolidated; some, such as Amazon.com , eBay , Nvidia and Google gained market share and came to dominate their respective fields. The most valuable public companies are now generally in

177-453: A new economy where the old stock valuation rules may no longer apply. This type of thinking helps to further propagate the bubble whereby everyone is investing with the intent of finding a greater fool . Still, some analysts cite the wisdom of crowds and say that price movements really do reflect rational expectations of fundamental returns. Large traders become powerful enough to rock the boat, generating stock market bubbles. To sort out

236-609: A 50-year period in the 2040s. Its innovative basis includes Internet , nanotechnologies , telematics and bionics . In the financial markets, the term has been associated with the Dot-com bubble . This included the emergence of the NASDAQ as a rival to the New York Stock Exchange , a high rate of IPOs , the rise of Dot-com stocks over established firms, and the prevalent use of tools such as stock options . In

295-409: A conservative or contrarian position as a bubble builds results in performance unfavorable to peers. This may cause customers to go elsewhere and can affect the investment manager's own employment or compensation. The typical short-term focus of U.S. equity markets exacerbates the risk for investment managers that do not participate during the building phase of a bubble, particularly one that builds over

354-697: A great deal of overcapacity as many Internet business clients went bust. That, plus ongoing investment in local cell infrastructure kept connectivity charges low, and helped to make high-speed Internet connectivity more affordable. During this time, a handful of companies found success developing business models that helped make the World Wide Web a more compelling experience. These include airline booking sites, Google 's search engine and its profitable approach to keyword-based advertising, as well as eBay 's auction site and Amazon.com 's online department store. The low price of reaching millions worldwide, and

413-494: A limit on volatility. However, once positive feedback takes over, the market, like all systems with positive feedback, enters a state of increasing disequilibrium . This can be seen in financial bubbles where asset prices rapidly spike upwards far beyond what could be considered the rational "economic value", only to fall rapidly afterwards. Investment managers, such as stock mutual fund managers, are compensated and retained in part due to their performance relative to peers. Taking

472-421: A much-hyped company that had backing from Amazon.com, went out of business only nine months after completing its IPO. By that time, most Internet stocks had declined in value by 75% from their highs, wiping out $ 1.755 trillion in value. In January 2001, just three dot-com companies bought advertising spots during Super Bowl XXXV . The September 11 attacks accelerated the stock-market drop. Investor confidence

531-910: A price–earnings ratio of 200, dwarfing the peak price–earnings ratio of 80 for the Japanese Nikkei 225 during the Japanese asset price bubble of 1991. In 1999, shares of Qualcomm rose in value by 2,619%, 12 other large-cap stocks each rose over 1,000% in value, and seven additional large-cap stocks each rose over 900% in value. Even though the Nasdaq Composite rose 85.6% and the S&;P 500 rose 19.5% in 1999, more stocks fell in value than rose in value as investors sold stocks in slower growing companies to invest in Internet stocks. An unprecedented amount of personal investing occurred during

590-478: A profit. But despite this, the Internet continued to grow, driven by commerce, ever greater amounts of online information, knowledge, social networking and access by mobile devices. The 1993 release of Mosaic and subsequent web browsers during the following years gave computer users access to the World Wide Web , popularizing use of the Internet. Internet use increased as a result of the reduction of

649-493: A revenue restatement due to aggressive accounting practices. Its stock price, which had risen from $ 7 per share to as high as $ 333 per share in a year, fell $ 140 per share, or 62%, in a day. The next day, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, leading to an inverted yield curve , although stocks rallied temporarily. Tangentially to all of speculation, Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson issued his conclusions of law in

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708-448: A widely read article that stated: "It's time, at last, to pay attention to the numbers". On Friday, April 14, 2000, the Nasdaq Composite index fell 9%, ending a week in which it fell 25%. Investors were forced to sell stocks ahead of Tax Day , the due date to pay taxes on gains realized in the previous year. By June 2000, dot-com companies were forced to reevaluate their spending on advertising campaigns. On November 9, 2000, Pets.com ,

767-518: Is an over abundance of IPOs in a bubble market, a large portion of the IPO companies fail completely, never achieve what is promised to the investors, or can even be vehicles for fraud. Emotional and cognitive biases (see behavioral finance ) seem to be the causes of bubbles, but often, when the phenomenon appears, pundits try to find a rationale, so as not to be against the crowd. Thus, sometimes, people will dismiss concerns about overpriced markets by citing

826-567: Is wrong. For closed-end country funds, observers can compare the stock prices to the net asset value per share (the net value of the fund's total holdings divided by the number of shares outstanding). For experimental asset markets, observers can compare the stock prices to the expected returns from holding the stock (which the experimenter determines and communicates to the traders). In both instances, closed-end country funds and experimental markets, stock prices clearly diverge from fundamental values. Nobel laureate Dr. Vernon Smith has illustrated

885-782: The Dulles Technology Corridor in Virginia, governments funded technology infrastructure and created favorable business and tax law to encourage companies to expand. The growth in capacity vastly outstripped the growth in demand. Spectrum auctions for 3G in the United Kingdom in April 2000, led by Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown , raised £22.5 billion. In Germany, in August 2000,

944-400: The quaternary sector of the economy and confidence that the companies would turn future profits created an environment in which many investors were willing to overlook traditional metrics, such as the price–earnings ratio , and base confidence on technological advancements, leading to a stock market bubble . Between 1995 and 2000, the Nasdaq Composite stock market index rose 400%. It reached

1003-541: The " digital divide " and advances in connectivity, uses of the Internet, and computer education. Between 1990 and 1997, the percentage of households in the United States owning computers increased from 15% to 35% as computer ownership progressed from a luxury to a necessity. This marked the shift to the Information Age , an economy based on information technology , and many new companies were founded. At

1062-899: The 17th-century Dutch Republic , the birthplace of the first formal (official) stock exchange and market in history. The Dutch tulip mania , of the 1630s, is generally considered the world's first recorded speculative bubble (or economic bubble ). Two famous early stock market bubbles were the Mississippi Scheme in France and the South Sea bubble in England. Both bubbles came to an abrupt end in 1720, bankrupting thousands of unfortunate investors. Those stories, and many others, are recounted in Charles Mackay 's 1841 popular account, " Extraordinary Popular Delusions and

1121-427: The Federal Reserve , raised interest rates several times; these actions were believed by many to have caused the bursting of the dot-com bubble. According to Paul Krugman , however, "he didn't raise interest rates to curb the market's enthusiasm; he didn't even seek to impose margin requirements on stock market investors. Instead, [it is alleged] he waited until the bubble burst, as it did in 2000, then tried to clean up

1180-507: The IPOs at high premiums. It only took a few months for the premiums in closed-end country funds to fade back to the more typical discounts at which closed-end funds trade. Those who had bought them at premiums had run out of "greater fools". For a while, though, the supply of "greater fools" had been outstanding. A rising price on any share will attract the attention of investors. Not all of those investors are willing or interested in studying

1239-588: The Madness of Crowds ". The two most famous bubbles of the twentieth century, the bubble in American stocks in the 1920s just before the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and the following Great Depression , and the Dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, were based on speculative activity surrounding the development of new technologies. The 1920s saw the widespread introduction of a range of technological innovations including radio , automobiles , aviation and

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1298-507: The Nasdaq fell 2.6%, but the S&P 500 rose 2.4% as investors shifted from strong performing technology stocks to poor performing established stocks. On March 20, 2000, Barron's featured a cover article titled "Burning Up; Warning: Internet companies are running out of cash—fast", which predicted the imminent bankruptcy of many Internet companies. This led many people to rethink their investments. That same day, MicroStrategy announced

1357-484: The Web to be a useful and profitable additional channel for content distribution, and an additional means to generate advertising revenue. The sites that survived and eventually prospered after the bubble burst had two things in common: a sound business plan, and a niche in the marketplace that was, if not unique, particularly well-defined and well-served. In the aftermath of the dot-com bubble, telecommunications companies had

1416-454: The auctions raised £30 billion. A 3G spectrum auction in the United States in 1999 had to be re-run when the winners defaulted on their bids of $ 4 billion. The re-auction netted 10% of the original sales prices. When financing became hard to find as the bubble burst, the high debt ratios of these companies led to bankruptcy . Bond investors recovered just over 20% of their investments. However, several telecom executives sold stock before

1475-511: The boom and stories of people quitting their jobs to trade on the financial market were common. The news media took advantage of the public's desire to invest in the stock market; an article in The Wall Street Journal suggested that investors "re-think" the "quaint idea" of profits, and CNBC reported on the stock market with the same level of suspense as many networks provided to the broadcasting of sports events . At

1534-532: The bubble. During the dot-com crash , many online shopping companies, notably Pets.com , Webvan , and Boo.com , as well as several communication companies, such as Worldcom , NorthPoint Communications , and Global Crossing , failed and shut down. Others, like Lastminute.com , MP3.com and PeopleSound remained through its sale and buyers acquisition. Larger companies like Amazon and Cisco Systems lost large portions of their market capitalization, with Cisco losing 80% of its stock value. Historically,

1593-953: The building of the railroads or the automobile or aerospace industry or whatever. And in this case, much of the capital invested was lost, but also much of it was invested in a very high throughput backbone for the Internet, and lots of software that works, and databases and server structure. All that stuff has allowed what we have today, which has changed all our lives... that's what all this speculative mania built. Stock market bubble Behavioral finance theory attributes stock market bubbles to cognitive biases that lead to groupthink and herd behavior . Bubbles occur not only in real-world markets, with their inherent uncertainty and noise, but also in highly predictable experimental markets. Other theoretical explanations of stock market bubbles have suggested that they are rational, intrinsic, and contagious. Historically, early stock market bubbles and crashes have their roots in financial activities of

1652-535: The case of United States v. Microsoft Corp. (2001) and ruled that Microsoft was guilty of monopolization and tying in violation of the Sherman Antitrust Act . This led to a one-day 15% decline in the value of shares in Microsoft and a 350-point, or 8%, drop in the value of the Nasdaq. Many people saw the legal actions as bad for technology in general. That same day, Bloomberg News published

1711-629: The closed-end country fund phenomenon with a chart showing prices and net asset values of the Spain Fund  [ zh ] in 1989 and 1990 in his work on price bubbles. At its peak, the Spain Fund traded near $ 35, nearly triple its Net Asset Value of about $ 12 per share. At the same time the Spain Fund and other closed-end country funds were trading at very substantial premiums, the number of closed-end country funds available exploded thanks to many issuers creating new country funds and selling

1770-422: The competing claims between behavioral finance and efficient markets theorists, observers need to find bubbles that occur when a readily available measure of fundamental value is also observable. The bubble in closed-end country funds in the late 1980s is instructive here, as are the bubbles that occur in experimental asset markets. According to the efficient-market hypothesis , this doesn't happen, and so any data

1829-399: The computer hardware and durable goods manufacturing sectors, which only represent a relatively small segment of the economy. His method relied on applying considerably sized gains in the business cycle to explain aggregate productivity growth. According to the generally unaccepted Kondratiev wave theory of economy growth, the "new economy" is a current Kondratiev wave which will end after

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1888-523: The crash including Philip Anschutz , who reaped $ 1.9 billion, Joseph Nacchio , who reaped $ 248 million, and Gary Winnick , who sold $ 748 million worth of shares. Nearing the turn of the 2000s, spending on technology was volatile as companies prepared for the Year 2000 problem . There were concerns that computer systems would have trouble changing their clock and calendar systems from 1999 to 2000 which might trigger wider social or economic problems, but there

1947-744: The crash; 48% of dot-com companies survived through 2004, albeit at lower valuations. Several companies and their executives, including Bernard Ebbers , Jeffrey Skilling , and Kenneth Lay , were accused or convicted of fraud for misusing shareholders' money, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission levied large fines against investment firms including Citigroup and Merrill Lynch for misleading investors. After suffering losses, retail investors transitioned their investment portfolios to more cautious positions. Popular Internet forums that focused on high tech stocks, such as Silicon Investor , Yahoo! Finance , and The Motley Fool declined in use significantly. Layoffs of programmers resulted in

2006-903: The deployment of electrical power grids . The 1990s was the decade when Internet and e-commerce technologies emerged. Other stock market bubbles of note include the Encilhamento occurred in Brazil during the late 1880s and early 1890s, the Nifty Fifty stocks in the early 1970s, Taiwanese stocks in 1987–89 and Japanese stocks in the late 1980s . Stock market bubbles frequently produce hot markets in initial public offerings , since investment bankers and their clients see opportunities to float new stock issues at inflated prices. These hot IPO markets misallocate investment funds to areas dictated by speculative trends, rather than to enterprises generating longstanding economic value. Typically when there

2065-444: The dot-com boom can be seen as similar to a number of other technology-inspired booms of the past, including railroads in the 1840s, automobiles in the early 20th century, radio in the 1920s, television in the 1940s, transistor electronics in the 1950s, computer time-sharing in the 1960s, and home computers and biotechnology in the 1980s. Low interest rates in 1998–99 facilitated an increase in start-up companies. In 2000,

2124-642: The dot-com bubble burst, and many dot-com startups went out of business after burning through their venture capital and failing to become profitable . However, many others, particularly online retailers like eBay and Amazon , blossomed and became highly profitable. More conventional retailers found online merchandising to be a profitable additional source of revenue. While some online entertainment and news outlets failed when their seed capital ran out, others persisted and eventually became economically self-sufficient. Traditional media outlets (newspaper publishers, broadcasters and cablecasters in particular) also found

2183-436: The growth rate of output per hour, a measure of labor productivity, had only averaged around one-percent per year. But by the mid 1990s, growth became much faster: 2.65 percent from 1995–99. America also experienced increased employment and decreasing inflation. The economist Robert J. Gordon referred to this as a Goldilocks economy —-the result of five positive "shocks"—–"the two traditional shocks (food-energy and imports) and

2242-670: The height of the boom, it was possible for a promising dot-com company to become a public company via an IPO and raise a substantial amount of money even if it had never made a profit—or, in some cases, realized any material revenue or even have a finished product. People who received employee stock options became instant paper millionaires when their companies executed IPOs; however, most employees were barred from selling shares immediately due to lock-up periods . The most successful entrepreneurs, such as Mark Cuban , sold their shares or entered into hedges to protect their gains. Sir John Templeton successfully shorted many dot-com stocks at

2301-512: The intrinsics of the share and for such people the rising price itself is reason enough to invest. In turn, the additional investment will provide buoyancy to the price, thus completing a positive feedback loop. Like all dynamic systems, financial markets operate in an ever-changing equilibrium, which translates into price volatility . However, a self-adjustment ( negative feedback ) takes place normally: when prices rise more people are encouraged to sell, while fewer are encouraged to buy. This puts

2360-497: The launch of a new product or website, a company would organize an expensive event called a dot-com party . In the five years after the American Telecommunications Act of 1996 went into effect, telecommunications equipment companies invested more than $ 500 billion, mostly financed with debt, into laying fiber optic cable, adding new switches, and building wireless networks. In many areas, such as

2419-481: The mess afterward". Finance author and commentator E. Ray Canterbery agreed with Krugman's criticism. On Friday March 10, 2000, the NASDAQ Composite stock market index peaked at 5,048.62. However, on March 13, 2000, news that Japan had once again entered a recession triggered a global sell off that disproportionately affected technology stocks. Soon after, Yahoo! and eBay ended merger talks and

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2478-468: The mottos "get big fast" and "get large or get lost". These companies offered their services or products for free or at a discount with the expectation that they could build enough brand awareness to charge profitable rates for their services in the future. The "growth over profits" mentality and the aura of " new economy " invincibility led some companies to engage in lavish spending on elaborate business facilities and luxury vacations for employees. Upon

2537-503: The new entrepreneurs had experience in business and economics, the majority were simply people with ideas, and did not manage the capital influx prudently. Additionally, many dot-com business plans were predicated on the assumption that by using the Internet, they would bypass the distribution channels of existing businesses and therefore not have to compete with them; when the established businesses with strong existing brands developed their own Internet presence, these hopes were shattered, and

2596-548: The newcomers were left attempting to break into markets dominated by larger, more established businesses. The dot-com bubble burst in March 2000, with the technology heavy NASDAQ Composite index peaking at 5,048.62 on March 10 (5,132.52 intraday), more than double its value just a year before. By 2001, the bubble's deflation was running full speed. A majority of the dot-coms had ceased trading, after having burnt through their venture capital and IPO capital, often without ever making

2655-440: The old laws of economics did not apply anymore and that new laws had taken their place. They also claimed that improvements in computer hardware and software, would dramatically change the future, and that information is the most important value in the new economy. Some, such as Joseph Stiglitz and Blake Belding, have suggested that a lot of investment in information technology , especially in software and unused fibre optics ,

2714-579: The peak of the bubble during what he called "temporary insanity" and a "once-in-a-lifetime opportunity". He shorted stocks just before the expiration of lockup periods ending six months after initial public offerings, correctly anticipating many dot-com company executives would sell shares as soon as possible, and that large-scale selling would force down share prices. Most dot-com companies incurred net operating losses as they spent heavily on advertising and promotions to harness network effects to build market share or mind share as fast as possible, using

2773-481: The possibility of selling to or hearing from those people at the same moment when they were reached, promised to overturn established business dogma in advertising, mail-order sales, customer relationship management , and many more areas. The web was a new killer app —it could bring together unrelated buyers and sellers in seamless and low-cost ways. Entrepreneurs around the world developed new business models, and ran to their nearest venture capitalist . While some of

2832-448: The same time, a decline in interest rates increased the availability of capital. The Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 , which lowered the top marginal capital gains tax in the United States , also made people more willing to make more speculative investments. Alan Greenspan , then- Chair of the Federal Reserve , allegedly fueled investments in the stock market by putting a positive spin on stock valuations. The Telecommunications Act of 1996

2891-412: The technology sector. In a 2015 book, venture capitalist Fred Wilson , who funded many dot-com companies and lost 90% of his net worth when the bubble burst, said about the dot-com bubble: A friend of mine has a great line. He says "Nothing important has ever been built without irrational exuberance ." Meaning that you need some of this mania to cause investors to open up their pocketbooks and finance

2950-439: The three new shocks (computers, medical care, and measurement)" Other economists pointed to the ripening benefits of the computer age, being realized after a delay much like that associated with the delayed benefits of electricity shortly after the turn of the twentieth century. Gordon contended in 2000, that the benefits of computers were marginal or even negative for the majority of firms, with their benefits being consolidated in

3009-407: The transition from heavy industry to a new technology based economy. By 1997, Newsweek was referring to the "new economy" in many of its articles. After a nearly 25-year period of unprecedented growth, the United States experienced a much discussed economic slowdown beginning in 1972. However, around 1995, U.S. economic growth accelerated, driven by faster productivity growth. From 1972 to 1995,

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3068-464: The wider economy the term has been associated with practices such as outsourcing , business process outsourcing and business process re-engineering . At the same time, there was a lot of investment in companies in the technology sector . Stock shares rose dramatically. A lot of start-ups were created and the stock value was very high where floated. Newspapers and business leaders were starting to talk of new business models . Some even claimed that

3127-632: Was a stock market bubble that ballooned during the late-1990s and peaked on Friday, March 10, 2000. This period of market growth coincided with the widespread adoption of the World Wide Web and the Internet , resulting in a dispensation of available venture capital and the rapid growth of valuations in new dot-com startups . Between 1995 and its peak in March 2000, investments in the NASDAQ composite stock market index rose by 800%, only to fall 78% from its peak by October 2002, giving up all its gains during

3186-602: Was expected to result in many new technologies from which many people wanted to profit. As a result of these factors, many investors were eager to invest, at any valuation, in any dot-com company , especially if it had one of the Internet-related prefixes or a " .com " suffix in its name. Venture capital was easy to raise. Investment banks , which profited significantly from initial public offerings (IPO), fueled speculation and encouraged investment in technology. A combination of rapidly increasing stock prices in

3245-896: Was further eroded by several accounting scandals and the resulting bankruptcies, including the Enron scandal in October 2001, the WorldCom scandal in June 2002, and the Adelphia Communications Corporation scandal in July 2002. By the end of the stock market downturn of 2002 , stocks had lost $ 5 trillion in market capitalization since the peak. At its trough on October 9, 2002, the NASDAQ-100 had dropped to 1,114, down 78% from its peak. After venture capital

3304-442: Was no longer available, the operational mentality of executives and investors completely changed. A dot-com company's lifespan was measured by its burn rate , the rate at which it spent its existing capital. Many dot-com companies ran out of capital and went through liquidation . Supporting industries, such as advertising and shipping, scaled back their operations as demand for services fell. However, many companies were able to endure

3363-400: Was the largest to date and was questioned by many analysts. Then, on January 30, 2000, 12 ads of the 61 ads for Super Bowl XXXIV were purchased by dot-coms (sources state ranges from 12 up to 19 companies depending on the definition of dot-com company ). At that time, the cost for a 30-second commercial was between $ 1.9 million and $ 2.2 million. Meanwhile, Alan Greenspan , then Chair of

3422-689: Was useless. However, this may be too harsh a judgment, given that U.S. investment in information technology has remained relatively strong since 2002. While there may have been some overinvestment, productivity research shows that much of the investment has been useful in raising output. The recession of 2001 disproved many of the more extreme predictions made during the boom years, and gave credence to Gordon's minimization of computers' contributions. However, subsequent research strongly suggests that productivity growth has been stimulated by heavy investment in information and communication technology. Dot-com bubble The dot-com bubble (or dot-com boom )

3481-439: Was virtually no impact or disruption due to adequate preparation. Spending on marketing also reached new heights for the sector: Two dot-com companies purchased ad spots for Super Bowl XXXIII , and 17 dot-com companies bought ad spots the following year for Super Bowl XXXIV . On January 10, 2000, America Online , led by Steve Case and Ted Leonsis , announced a merger with Time Warner , led by Gerald M. Levin . The merger

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