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81-460: While economies do undergo a recession after the end of a major conflict as the economy is forced to adjust and retool, a "peace dividend" refers to a potential long-term benefit as budgets for defense spending are assumed to be at least partially redirected to social programs and/or a decrease in taxation rates. The existence of a peace dividend in real economies is still debated, but some research points to its reality. A political discussion about

162-441: A Creative Commons license, allowing reuse without modification. Copyright terms for images are generally listed in the image caption and attribution. Its model has been described as explanatory journalism . Except in "exceptional circumstances", it only publishes articles by "academics employed by, or otherwise formally connected to, accredited institutions, including universities and accredited research bodies". The website

243-521: A pandemic ). There is no official definition of a recession, according to the IMF . In the United States , a recession is defined as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the market, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP , real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales." The European Union has adopted a similar definition. In

324-445: A recession is a business cycle contraction that occurs when there is a period of broad decline in economic activity. Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending (an adverse demand shock ). This may be triggered by various events, such as a financial crisis , an external trade shock, an adverse supply shock , the bursting of an economic bubble , or a large-scale anthropogenic or natural disaster (e.g.

405-459: A December 2023 Wall Street Journal article for the lack of progress on arming themselves since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Examples it gave were Denmark having no heavy artillery or air defence, France only having 90 howitzers and Germany only having 2 days of ammunition stored. Noting that West Germany used to have 7,000 tanks, the article pointed out that now-unified Germany has only 200. Not only that but also military production

486-600: A balance between reader accessibility and academic rigour. Editors who work for the site frequently have past experience working for traditional news outlets. The original authors then review the edited version. Topics include politics, society, health, science, and the environment . Authors are required to disclose conflicts of interest. All articles are published under a Creative Commons Attribution/No derivatives licence. The site often publishes fact-checks that are produced by academics from major universities, then blind peer reviewed by another academic who comments on

567-409: A balance sheet recession would be appropriate. However, Krugman argued that monetary policy could also affect savings behavior, as inflation or credible promises of future inflation (generating negative real interest rates) would encourage less savings. In other words, people would tend to spend more rather than save if they believe inflation is on the horizon. In more technical terms, Krugman argues that

648-513: A comprehensive assessment of the depth and breadth of economic downturns, enabling policymakers to devise more effective strategies for economic stabilization and recovery. Recessions in the United Kingdom are generally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, as measured by the seasonal adjusted quarter-on-quarter figures for real GDP . The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) defines

729-499: A custom publishing and content management system built in Ruby on Rails . This system enables authors and editors to collaborate on articles in real time. Articles link to author profiles—including disclosure statements—and personal dashboards showing authors' engagement with the public. This is intended to encourage authors for the site to become more familiar with social media and their audience. Each edition of The Conversation has

810-522: A federal budget surplus by the end of the decade." In an article based on an opinion piece of Marco Rubio . Highlighting that the US military lacks 41,000 new recruits. Criticizing the US for peace dividend not looking good in the US. While EconoFacts questioned what the current defense budget is spent on, including that the peace dividend has caused a lowering of military spending from 6% of GDP to 3%. Canada needs to spend an additional $ 18.2 billion to meet

891-463: A key demand component of GDP, fell enormously (22% of GDP) between 1990 and its peak decline in 2003. Japanese firms overall became net savers after 1998, as opposed to borrowers. Koo argues that it was massive fiscal stimulus (borrowing and spending by the government) that offset this decline and enabled Japan to maintain its level of GDP. In his view, this avoided a U.S. type Great Depression , in which U.S. GDP fell by 46%. He argued that monetary policy

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972-502: A liquidity trap is expanding the money supply via quantitative easing or other techniques in which money is effectively printed to purchase assets, thereby creating inflationary expectations that cause savers to begin spending again. Government stimulus spending and mercantilist policies to stimulate exports and reduce imports are other techniques to stimulate demand. He estimated in March 2010 that developed countries representing 70% of

1053-833: A recession as a period of at least two years during which the cumulative output gap reaches at least 2% of GDP, and the output gap is at least 1% for at least one year. Recession can be defined as decline of GDP per capita instead of decline of total GDP. A recession encompasses multiple attributes that often occur simultaneously and encompasses declines in component measures of economic activity, such as GDP, including consumption, investment, government spending, and net export activity. These summary measures are indicative of underlying drivers such as employment levels and skills, household savings rates, corporate investment decisions, interest rates, demographics, and government policies (Smith, 2018; Johnson & Thompson, 2020). By examining these factors comprehensively, economists gain insights into

1134-493: A recession including the availability heuristic , the money illusion , and normalcy bias . Excessive levels of indebtedness or the bursting of a real estate or financial asset price bubble can cause what is called a "balance sheet recession". This occurs when large numbers of consumers or corporations pay down debt (i.e., save) rather than spend or invest, which slows the economy. The term balance sheet derives from an accounting identity that holds that assets must always equal

1215-427: A recession. Economist Hyman Minsky also described a "paradox of deleveraging" as financial institutions that have too much leverage (debt relative to equity) cannot all de-leverage simultaneously without significant declines in the value of their assets. In April 2009, U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen discussed these paradoxes: "Once this massive credit crunch hit, it didn't take long before we were in

1296-619: A recession. The recession, in turn, deepened the credit crunch as demand and employment fell, and credit losses of financial institutions surged. Indeed, we have been in the grips of precisely this adverse feedback loop for more than a year. A process of balance sheet deleveraging has spread to nearly every corner of the economy. Consumers are pulling back on purchases, especially durable goods, to build their savings. Businesses are cancelling planned investments and laying off workers to preserve cash. And financial institutions are shrinking assets to bolster capital and improve their chances of weathering

1377-490: A regular basis by major news outlets. These have included The New York Times , The Guardian , The Washington Post , and CNN . As of 2015, approximately 80 per cent of the site readership were of a non-academic background. The Conversation has been described in Public Understanding of Science as "a blend of scientific communication , public science communication and science journalism , and

1458-459: A reliable recession predictor. The curve began re-steepening toward positive territory in June 2024, as it had at other points during that inversion; in every previous inversion they examined; Deutsche Bank analysts found the curve had re-steepened before a recession began. The following variables and indicators are used by economists, like e.g. Paul Krugman or Joseph Stiglitz , to try to predict

1539-415: A self-reinforcing downward cycle, bringing about or worsening a recession. Consumer confidence is one measure used to evaluate economic sentiment. The term animal spirits has been used to describe the psychological factors underlying economic activity. Keynes, in his The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money , was the first economist to claim that such emotional mindsets significantly affect

1620-518: A unique content set, editor-in-chief, and board of advisors. From its first Melbourne-headquartered Australian edition, The Conversation has expanded to a global network of eight editions, operating in multiple languages. This has included expansions into the United Kingdom in 2013, United States in 2014, Africa and France in 2015, Canada, Indonesia, and New Zealand in 2017,. Spain in 2018, Europe and Brasil in 2024. The website also has an international staff. As of 2018, 36% of its readership

1701-881: Is 90 per cent funded by partnered universities, with other funding from the Higher Education Funding Council for England and the Wellcome Trust . In 2019, the site became a member of the Independent Monitor for the Press , an independent press regulator. Andrew Jaspan was invited in 2012 to bring The Conversation to the United States. Thomas Fiedler, then dean of the School of Communications at Boston University , offered to host The Conversation U.S. and provide space for

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1782-677: Is Scott White, the former editor-in-chief of The Canadian Press . A French-language Canadian edition, La Conversation Canada , launched in 2018. A French edition of the website launched in September 2015. It is based in Paris, France. Didier Pourquery  [ fr ] was the editor of the French edition at launch. It launched with Fabrice Rousselot as its publication director. He previously worked for Libération . It received initial backing from French academic institutions, including

1863-465: Is a public good—and one of the core tasks of a state" ... "Maintaining an armed force, however, is expensive. Many NATO members must consolidate their budgets and have hardly any leeway for significant increases in expenditure." ... "If higher defense spending means making spending cuts elsewhere or raising taxes or public debt, it will be difficult for them to achieve a majority in parliament and elections, which may tempt some of them to simply announce that

1944-492: Is an independent nonprofit or charity funded by various sources such as partnered universities and university systems , governments and other grant awarding bodies, corporate partners, and reader donations. The Conversation was co-founded by Andrew Jaspan and Jack Rejtman, and launched in Australia in March 2011. Jaspan first discussed the concept of The Conversation in 2009 with Glyn Davis , vice chancellor at

2025-414: Is low in volume. EU countries like Germany has for a long while been reducing the military spending. With a NATO average spending in 1989 being 4% of GDP, with the number of tanks and equipment having been slashed alongside spending. In 2014 that same spending had dropped to 1.4%. The Washington Post described Germany as having the most "stunning" turnaround after 2022. The peace dividend also affected

2106-522: Is not an official designation" and that instead, "The designation of a recession is the province of a committee of experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research". The European Union, akin to the NBER's methodology, has embraced a definition of recession that integrates GDP alongside a spectrum of macroeconomic indicators, including employment and various other metrics. This approach allows for

2187-563: Is pipelines and other infrastructure running on the seabed, evidenced by the Nord Stream explosions . The Nord Stream incidents have highlighted similar threats to "critical infrastructure", such as against the energy network or the information network, like undersea cabels. While some countries in Europe, such as Finland , did not abolish its conscription and bought many weapons from the disarming nations, such as M270 and Leopard tanks from

2268-579: Is referred to as an economic depression , although some argue that their causes and cures can be different. As an informal shorthand, economists sometimes refer to different recession shapes , such as V-shaped , U-shaped , L-shaped and W-shaped recessions. The type and shape of recessions are distinctive. In the US, v-shaped, or short-and-sharp contractions followed by rapid and sustained recovery, occurred in 1954 and 1990–1991; U-shaped (prolonged slump) in 1974–1975, and W-shaped, or double-dip recessions in 1949 and 1980–1982. Japan's 1993–1994 recession

2349-493: Is therefore, asserts Chomsky, no interest in the US toward a peace dividend when peace arrives. On contrary, the fall of the USSR allowed the US to look for new external wars to justify the desired military spending at home. Over time from the beginning of the cold war to the present defense aspect has played a smaller or larger part of society, fluctuated according to different conditions. European nations were sharply criticized by

2430-541: The (inverted) yield curve appear to be more useful to predict a recession ahead of time than other variables, no single variable has proven to be an always reliable predictor whether recessions will actually (soon) appear, let alone predicting their sharpness and severity in terms of duration. The longest and deepest Treasury yield curve inversion in history began in July 2022, as the Federal Reserve sharply increased

2511-660: The Australian Federal Government , and the Commonwealth Bank of Australia . In March 2017, Andrew Jaspan resigned as executive director and editor, six months after being placed on enforced leave after complaints from senior staff in Melbourne about his management style and the global direction of the group. Management of the UK, U.S., and Africa offices also wrote a letter of no confidence to

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2592-513: The Battle of Kadesh ; " Ramesses II ’s strategic aims, the standoff and cessation of hostilites did at least allow him to reap a peace dividend. Resources that might have been expended on foreign military adventures could instead be invested in projects at home". With Ramesses also being able to divert resources to building projects. Building projects usually employed significant amounts of workforce. Recession Heterodox In economics ,

2673-469: The Bureau of Labor Statistics Julius Shiskin suggested that a rough translation of the bureau's qualitative definition of a recession into a quantitative one that almost anyone can use might run like this: Over the years, some commentators dropped most of Shiskin's "recession-spotting" criteria for the simplistic rule-of-thumb of a decline in real GNI for two consecutive quarters. In the United States ,

2754-578: The Ethiopian government and TPLF and that peace trieaties would allow African countries to reap peace dividends, such as from good governance. While Viviana García Pinzón highlights the mixed results of peace dividend in Colombia following the Farc peace agreement . Saying that there has been some advances in democracy and shift of public debate to corruption, but that violence has still not ended despite

2835-621: The September 11 attacks , funding conflicts including the War on Terror , the War in Afghanistan and the War in Iraq . US intellectual Noam Chomsky has argued that US military spending was not due to security reasons, but rather a politically consensual mechanism to subsidize technological innovation via massive public military spending to benefit defense corporations and their partners. There

2916-523: The US helped win the Cold War with a high defense spending. Defense spending has decreased since the end of the cold war, in comparison with total federal spending. Stating: "This assessment proved to be accurate, as defense outlays as a share of total federal spending declined thereafter. The decade of the 1990s, in turn, was marked by above-average economic growth of more than 3.5% per annum, low inflation and

2997-462: The United Kingdom and Canada , a recession is defined as negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters. Governments usually respond to recessions by adopting expansionary macroeconomic policies , such as increasing money supply and decreasing interest rates or increasing government spending and decreasing taxation . In a 1974 article by The New York Times , Commissioner of

3078-907: The University of Lorraine , France's Conference of University Presidents, Paris Sciences et Lettres University , and the Institut Universitaire de France . It began with a budget of €1 million. Andrew Jaspan secured seed funding to develop the case to launch The Conversation into the UK in 2012. It launched in the UK on 16 May 2013 with Jonathan Hyams as chief executive, Stephen Khan as editor, and Max Landry as chief operating officer, alongside co-founder, Andrew Jaspan. It had 13 founder members, including City, University of London . City's president, professor Sir Paul Curran chaired its board of trustees. Landry took over from Hyams as chief executive shortly after launch. By February 2014,

3159-511: The University of Melbourne . Jaspan wrote a report for the university communications department on the university's engagement with the public, envisioning the university as "a giant newsroom", with academics and researchers collaboratively providing expert, informed content that engaged with the news cycle and major current affairs issues. This vision became the blueprint for The Conversation . Jaspan and Rejtman were provided support by Melbourne University in mid-2009 that allowed time to incubate

3240-838: The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation , and four other foundations. Maria Balinska became editor in 2015, before she moved to the US-UK Fulbright Commission . She was succeeded by Beth Daley , who became editor and general manager in 2019. The U.S. edition of The Conversation was originally based at Boston University, and that was its first partnered university. It later opened offices in Atlanta and New York. Other partnered institutions include Harvard University and MIT . Articles originally published in The Conversation have received republication on

3321-450: The fed funds rate to combat the 2021–2023 inflation surge . Despite widespread predictions by economists and market analysts of an imminent recession, none had materialized by July 2024, economic growth remained steady, and a Reuters survey of economists that month found they expected the economy to continue growing for the next two years. An earlier survey of bond market strategists found a majority no longer believed an inverted curve to be

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3402-608: The private sector as it pays down its debt. For example, economist Richard Koo wrote that Japan's "Great Recession" that began in 1990 was a "balance sheet recession". It was triggered by a collapse in land and stock prices, which caused Japanese firms to have negative equity , meaning their assets were worth less than their liabilities. Despite zero interest rates and expansion of the money supply to encourage borrowing, Japanese corporations in aggregate opted to pay down their debts from their own business earnings rather than borrow to invest as firms typically do. Corporate investment,

3483-459: The 2% target will be reached sometime in the future." Though also stating in its conclusions that however; "Clearly, Europe’s peace dividend has come to an end." In 2024 some countries in Europe, such as Germany and United Kingdom have started to debate conscription. Should they remain on a 'career' army path or go to some form of conscription. In Germany there is debate on emulating the "Swedish Model" of limited conscription mentioned above. While

3564-522: The 30 members (plus Sweden) above the 2% level. Poland became the biggest spender per capita and issued the biggest increase to its budget as well. The report noted there is an East to West divide, countries closest to Russia increasing spending the most in general. While some countries reduced their spending during the same 2021-2023 per capita such as Portugal , the United States and Croatia . Explaining that "Protection against external threats

3645-532: The Australian Defence Force is in a position similar to that of a decade ago, with little progress made in the way of new capabilities being delivered to the ADF " and highlighting the changing times and that Australia should do more in the defense space. The African Union said its newsletter, linking the term strongly with peace negotiations . The AU highlighted peace efforts like the one between

3726-661: The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is generally seen as the authority for dating US recessions. The NBER, a private economic research organization, defines an economic recession as: "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP , real income , employment, industrial production , and wholesale - retail sales ". The NBER also explains that: "a recession begins when

3807-502: The Conversation Media Group asking that Jaspan not have an active role in the future. Articles are written by academic researchers in their respective areas of expertise. They either pitch topics or are specifically commissioned to write on a topic in which they are a subject-matter expert , including for articles about current events . The Conversation 's core staff then edits these articles, ensuring

3888-707: The NATO two percent of GDP spending goal, this in addition of the already planned increases. Commenting that Canadas spending where among the lower spenders on defence in the Alliance. In Australia the term has been linked to the Voice Referendum . That the down voting of said proposal could now increase culture wars . While other opinions stay more true to the original definition and express worry about; "This reprioritisation of government spending could hurt Western living standards, including Australia’s. The absence of

3969-571: The Netherlands . Thus Finland is amongst the better armed nations in Europe today, while the Netherlands receive criticism for not having tanks any longer. Although, even though these aspects, Finland too had its defense budget go under 2% in the post-cold war period. While Sweden abolished its conscription and re-established it again after Russian annexation in Crimea and has since the 2022 invasion reinforced it further. Bruegel estimates that

4050-535: The UK is considering a "citizen army" of either conscription or national service. While in 2017 when Sweden re-introduced conscription, they modelled their initial model on that of Norway . While the Swedish conscription law originally enacted 1901, while in 2009 conscription was de-activated during peacetime, while the old law were still left in force. The current conscription model means that both men and women may have to serve, such as soldiers. According to Forbes ,

4131-577: The accuracy of the fact check. In 2016, the fact-check unit of The Conversation became accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network , an alliance of fact-checkers hosted at the Poynter Institute in the U.S. The assessment criteria require non-partisanship , fairness, transparency of funding, sources, and methods, as well as a commitment to open and honest corrections. The Conversation uses

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4212-524: The agreement. That in this way Colombia is in a middle state between fully gaining a dividends from peace and the previous levels in violence. Toby Wilkinson in his book on Ancient Egypt states that Thutmose IV had the opportunity to get economic benefits for Egypt by signing peace with the Mitanni . Which the Pharaoh then could put into construction projects. While further commenting on the aftermath of

4293-539: The business model. By February 2010, they had developed their model, branding, and business identity that they launched to potential support partners by way of an Information Memorandum in February 2010. The founders secured $ 10m in funding from four universities ( Melbourne , Monash , Australian National University , University of Western Australia ), CSIRO , the Victorian State Government ,

4374-480: The complex dynamics that contribute to economic downturns and can formulate effective strategies for mitigating their impact (Anderson, 2019; Patel, 2017). Economist Richard C. Koo wrote that under ideal conditions, a country's economy should have the household sector as net savers and the corporate sector as net borrowers, with the government budget nearly balanced and net exports near zero. A severe (GDP down by 10%) or prolonged (three or four years) recession

4455-410: The current storm. Once again, Minsky understood this dynamic. He spoke of the paradox of deleveraging, in which precautions that may be smart for individuals and firms—and indeed essential to return the economy to a normal state—nevertheless magnify the distress of the economy as a whole." There are many reasons why recessions happen. One overall reason can be lack of demand due to sharp developments in

4536-510: The decline in property values experienced during the subprime mortgage crisis. Further, reduced consumption due to higher household leverage can account for a significant decline in employment levels. Policies that help reduce mortgage debt or household leverage could therefore have stimulative effects (Smith & Johnson, 2012). A liquidity trap is a Keynesian theory that a situation can develop in which interest rates reach near zero ( zero interest-rate policy ) yet do not effectively stimulate

4617-423: The economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its through." The NBER is considered the official arbiter of recession start and end dates for the United States. The Bureau of Economic Analysis , an independent federal agency that provides official macroeconomic and industry statistics, says "the often-cited identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth

4698-442: The economy. Economist Robert J. Shiller wrote that the term "refers also to the sense of trust we have in each other, our sense of fairness in economic dealings, and our sense of the extent of corruption and bad faith. When animal spirits are on ebb, consumers do not want to spend and businesses do not want to make capital expenditures or hire people." Behavioral economics has also explained many psychological biases that may trigger

4779-475: The economy. In theory, near-zero interest rates should encourage firms and consumers to borrow and spend. However, if too many individuals or corporations focus on saving or paying down debt rather than spending, lower interest rates have less effect on investment and consumption behavior; increasing the money supply is like " pushing on a string ". Economist Paul Krugman described the U.S. 2009 recession and Japan's lost decade as liquidity traps. One remedy to

4860-468: The field of journalism at the University of British Columbia . Launch funding was partly provided in the form of a $ 200,000 grant from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council . The project was joined by Universities Canada as a strategic sponsor, and it partnered with a number of Canadian universities such as the University of Toronto . The founding editor of The Conversation Canada

4941-529: The first newsroom. With a university base established, he was able to raise the $ 2.3M launch funding. The U.S. edition of The Conversation was first published on 21 October 2014, initially led by Jaspan as U.S. CEO, Margaret Drain as editor, and Bruce Wilson leading development and university relations. The U.S. pilot was supported by the Howard Hughes Medical Institute , Alfred P. Sloan Foundation , Robert Wood Johnson Foundation ,

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5022-558: The following are considered possible predictors: Manufacturing: Industrial Production: Chemical Activity: Transportation: Corporate Profits: Employment: Personal Income: Household Savings and Consumer Debt: Retail Sales, Consumer Confidence and Consumer Expenditures: Housing and non-residential construction: Credit Markets: Business Expectations: Margin of stock market traders: Asset Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Unorthodox Recession Indicators: Overview of recession indicators: Sahm Recession Indicator signals

5103-449: The following categories: Economic factors: Financial factors: External shocks Summary: Why recessions happen is a complex phenomena often resulting from a interplay of various factors. While these factors can individually contribute to a recession, the cumulative impact of several occurring simultaneously can significantly amplify the negative effect on the economy. Recessions are very challenging to predict. While some variables like

5184-522: The mid-1950s, the UK spent almost 8% of GDP on defence. That fell to about 4% in 1980, 3% in 1990, and around 2% today. At the same time, spending on the health service has grown from around 3% of GDP in the mid-1950s to more than 7% on the eve of the pandemic." While the peace dividend was somewhat criticized earlier in the 1990s, with a war launched by Russia the peace dividend came to the fore of societal discussion and countries' spending on preventing threats started to increase. Not everyone has criticized

5265-466: The peace dividend as a negative; "This study found that the results varied according to national characteristics and regional environmental characteristics. However, peace dividends generally had a significant impact on national productivity." - according to one research paper According to a 2023 Econpol report, NATO defense spending increased as a result of Russia's invasion, from an overall pre-war level of 1.7% of GDP to 1.9% in 2023, and 11 nations out of

5346-581: The peace dividend could hit the funding of education, health, lower taxes, the transition to a greener economy, housing and so on, as pressing needs other than defence are pushed to the side." With others being worried about the peace dividend being to strong in Australia in light of recent world events following the Dissolution of the Soviet Union . Stating: "Indeed, it is now well recognised that

5427-574: The peace dividend has benefited Europe by 4,200 billion € over a 30-year period. The logic behind not spending money on threats like these outlined, is thought to spur economic growth, by freeing up the spending onto other things. The Conversation states that the peace dividend helped finance the British welfare state , stating; "The UK currently spends slightly over 2% of GDP on defence each year, amounting to some £45 billion in 2021, or about £660 per person. This has fallen substantially over time. In

5508-551: The peace dividend resulting from the end of the Cold War involves a debate about which countries have actually scaled back military spending and which have not. The scale back in defense spending was mainly noticeable in Western Europe and in the Russian Federation . Although United States military spending rapidly fell between 1985 and 1993 and remained flat between 1993 and 1999, it increased strongly after

5589-507: The possibility of a recession: Except for the above, there are no known completely reliable predictors. Analysis by Prakash Loungani of the International Monetary Fund found that only two of the sixty recessions around the world during the 1990s had been predicted by a consensus of economists one year earlier, while there were zero consensus predictions one year earlier for the 49 recessions during 2009. However,

5670-419: The prices of the inputs used in producing goods and services. Another main reason can be problems e.g. in financial markets. Because recessions have many likely explanations, it is demanding to predict them. Some variables might at first glance be the causes of recessions, but they could also be the results of a recession, which means they are endogenous to recessions. One can summarize the causes of recessions in

5751-484: The private sector savings curve is elastic even during a balance sheet recession (responsive to changes in real interest rates), disagreeing with Koo's view that it is inelastic (non-responsive to changes in real interest rates). A July 2012 survey of balance sheet recession research reported that consumer demand and employment are affected by household leverage levels. Both durable and non-durable goods consumption declined as households moved from low to high leverage with

5832-617: The project. It has offices in Kenya , Senegal , Nigeria , South Africa , and Ghana . As of 2021, most of the authors who published content in The Conversation Africa were affiliated with South African universities, and the website content initially focused on South Africa. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation provided $ 3m funding. The Canadian edition of The Conversation was co-founded on 26 June 2017 by Alfred Hermida and Mary Lynn Young, associate professors in

5913-623: The site had attained additional funding from academic research institutions including Research Councils UK and SAGE Publishing . They then hired six additional editors and expanded the UK edition's topical coverage. By August 2014, the UK branch published articles written by approximately 3,000 academics. Membership grew to more than 80 universities in the UK and Europe, including Cambridge , Oxford , and Trinity College Dublin . By 2019, it had published 24,000 articles written by 14,000 academics. In April 2018, it appointed former BBC and AP executive Chris Waiting as its new CEO. The Conversation UK

5994-456: The start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months. The Conversation (website) The Conversation is a network of nonprofit media outlets publishing news stories and research reports online, with accompanying expert opinion and analysis. Articles are written by academics and researchers under

6075-499: The structure of Europe's militaries. Many European countries abolished conscription and moved to professional armies. The peace dividend does not only show in the military sphere, but also in the economic. When the Russian 2022 invasion of Ukraine began, it was laid bare how unprepared and dependent some European countries were on Russian energy and raw materials. Germany had to scramble to build new LNG terminals. Another vulnerability

6156-556: The sum of liabilities plus equity. If asset prices fall below the value of the debt incurred to purchase them, then the equity must be negative, meaning the consumer or corporation is insolvent. Economist Paul Krugman wrote in 2014 that "the best working hypothesis seems to be that the financial crisis was only one manifestation of a broader problem of excessive debt—that it was a so-called "balance sheet recession". In Krugman's view, such crises require debt reduction strategies combined with higher government spending to offset declines from

6237-421: The world's GDP were caught in a liquidity trap. Behavior that may be optimal for an individual (e.g., saving more during adverse economic conditions) can be detrimental if too many individuals pursue the same behavior, as ultimately, one person's consumption is another person's income. Too many consumers attempting to save (or pay down debt) simultaneously is called the paradox of thrift and can cause or deepen

6318-489: Was U-shaped and its 8-out-of-9 quarters of contraction in 1997–1999 can be described as L-shaped. Korea , Hong Kong and South-east Asia experienced U-shaped recessions in 1997–1998, although Thailand 's eight consecutive quarters of decline should be termed L-shaped. Recessions have psychological and confidence aspects. For example, if companies expect economic activity to slow, they may reduce employment levels and save money rather than invest. Such expectations can create

6399-628: Was in Australia, 29% was in the United States, 7% in the United Kingdom, 4% in Canada, and 24% elsewhere. Across the whole network, stories commissioned by The Conversation are now republished in 90 countries, in 23 languages, and read more than 40m times a month. The Conversation launched an African edition in May 2015. It launched in Johannesburg . Within its first year, it was endorsed by 21 African universities and had 240 academics contribute to

6480-438: Was ineffective because there was limited demand for funds while firms paid down their liabilities. In a balance sheet recession, GDP declines by the amount of debt repayment and un-borrowed individual savings, leaving government stimulus spending as the primary remedy. Krugman discussed the balance sheet recession concept in 2010, agreeing with Koo's situation assessment and view that sustained deficit spending when faced with

6561-444: Was launched in Australia in March 2011. The network has since expanded globally with a variety of local editions originating from around the world. In September 2019, The Conversation reported a monthly online audience of 10.7 million users, and a combined reach of 40 million people when including republication. The site employed more than 150 full-time staff as of 2020. Each regional or national edition of The Conversation

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