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Fragile States Index

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The Fragile States Index ( FSI ; formerly the Failed States Index ) is an annual report mainly published and supported by the American think tank the Fund for Peace . The FSI is also published by the American magazine Foreign Policy from 2005 to 2018, then by The New Humanitarian since 2019. The list aims to assess states' vulnerability to conflict or collapse, ranking all sovereign states with membership in the United Nations where there is enough data available for analysis. Taiwan , Northern Cyprus , Kosovo and Western Sahara are not ranked, despite being recognized as sovereign by one or more other nations. The Palestinian Territories were ranked together with Israel until 2021. Ranking is based on the sum of scores for 12 indicators (see below). Each indicator is scored on a scale of 0 to 10, with 0 being the lowest intensity (most stable) and 10 being the highest intensity (least stable), creating a scale spanning 0−120.

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55-402: The index's ranks are based on 15 indicators of state vulnerability, grouped by category: Cohesion, Economic, Political, Social. The ranking is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are outweighing a state's capacity to manage those pressures. By highlighting pertinent vulnerabilities which contribute to

110-496: A lazy evaluation , that is, if the value of the expression can be determined from the left hand Boolean expression then they do not evaluate the right hand Boolean expression. As a result, there may be side effects that only occur for one value of the left hand operand. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development ( OECD ; French : Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques, OCDE )

165-588: A combination of the Boolean constants True/Yes or False/No , Boolean-typed variables, Boolean-valued operators, and Boolean-valued functions . Boolean expressions correspond to propositional formulas in logic and are a special case of Boolean circuits . Most programming languages have the Boolean operators OR , AND and NOT ; in C and some languages inspired by it , these are represented by "||" (double pipe character), "&&" (double ampersand ) and "!" ( exclamation point ) respectively, while

220-553: A combination of too many categories and a failure to distinguish between "government" and "state" (sometimes allowing political moves, such as Iran agreeing to negotiations with the West, to positively impact a score) complicates efforts to utilize findings. Several have argued for greater transparency in scoring methods, a reworking of the criteria to give the index predictive value, and a consolidation of indicators into umbrella groups for easier comparison. Furthermore, criticism related to

275-725: A country . The OECD also created agencies such as the OECD Development Centre (1961), International Energy Agency (IEA, 1974), and Financial Action Task Force on Money Laundering . The aims of the OECD are stated in Article 1 of the Convention as: Unlike the United Nations' "Organizations," OECD uses the spelling "Organisation" with an "s" in its name, together with a hyphenated "Co-operation". Following

330-650: A cumbersome task. Following several (occasionally unruly) meetings at the Hotel Majestic in Paris, which began in January 1960, a resolution was reached to create a body that would not only solve European and Atlantic economic issues, but also devise policies that could assist less developed countries. This reconstituted organisation would bring the US and Canada, who were already OEEC observers, on board as full members, and

385-654: A discussion on a broad spectrum of thematic issues relevant to the OECD charter, member countries, and non-member countries. Noteworthy meetings include: Exchanges between OECD governments benefit from the information, analysis, and preparation of the OECD Secretariat. The secretariat collects data, monitors trends, and analyses and forecasts economic developments. Under the direction and guidance of member governments, it also researches social changes or evolving patterns in trade, environment, education, agriculture, technology, taxation and other areas. The secretariat

440-501: A framework for negotiations aimed at setting up a European Free Trade Area , to bring the EEC's Inner Six and other OEEC members together on a multilateral basis. In 1958, a European Nuclear Energy Agency was set up in response to Euratom. By this time, some leading countries felt that the OEEC had outlived its purpose but could be adapted to fulfil a more global mission, which proved to be

495-665: A member of the Organisation through the letter addressed by Romanian Prime Minister Victor Ponta to OECD Secretary-General José Ángel Gurría . In September 2012, the government of Bulgaria confirmed it would apply for membership before the OECD Secretariat. The OECD established a working group headed by ambassador Seiichiro Noboru to work out a plan for the enlargement with non-members. The working group defined four criteria that must be fulfilled: "like-mindedness", "significant player", "mutual benefit" and "global considerations." The working group's recommendations were presented at

550-461: A member on 28 April 2020. On 15 May 2020, the OECD decided to extend a formal invitation for Costa Rica to join the OECD, which joined as a member on 25 May 2021. Other countries that have expressed interest in OECD membership are Argentina , Brazil , Croatia , Malaysia and Peru . In January 2022, the OECD reported that membership talks were underway with Argentina , Brazil , Bulgaria , Croatia , Peru and Romania . In March 2022,

605-536: A membership option for these countries. As a result of this, Poland , Hungary , the Czech Republic and Slovakia , as well as South Korea and Mexico , became members of the OECD between 1996 and 2000. East Germany joined on 3 October 1990 through reunification with West Germany. In the 1990s, several European countries, now members of the European Union, expressed their willingness to join

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660-406: A very high Human Development Index . As of 2024 their collective population is 1.38 billion people with an average life expectancy of 80 years and a median age of 40, against a global average of 30. As of 2017 , OECD Member countries collectively comprised 62.2% of global nominal GDP ( USD 49.6 trillion) and 42.8% of global GDP ( Int$ 54.2 trillion) at purchasing power parity . The OECD

715-536: Is an intergovernmental organization with 38 member countries, founded in 1961 to stimulate economic progress and world trade . It is a forum whose member countries describe themselves as committed to democracy and the market economy , providing a platform to compare policy experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practices, and coordinate domestic and international policies of its members. The majority of OECD members are generally regarded as developed countries , with high-income economies , and

770-588: Is an official United Nations observer . OECD nations have strong social security systems ; their average social welfare spending stood at roughly 21% of GDP. The OECD's headquarters are at the Château de la Muette in Paris , France, which housed its predecessor organization, the Organization for European Economic Co-operation. The OECD is funded by contributions from member countries at varying rates and

825-691: Is organised in directorates: The head of the OECD Secretariat and chair of the OECD Council is the Secretary-General. Secretary-General selections are made by consensus , meaning all member states must agree on a candidate. Representatives of member and observer countries meet in specialised committees on specific policy areas, such as economics, trade, science, employment, education, development assistance or financial markets. There are about 200 committees, working groups and expert groups. Committees discuss policies and review progress in

880-556: Is recognised as a highly influential publisher of mostly economic data through publications as well as annual evaluations and rankings of member countries. The OECD is the successor organization to the Organisation for European Economic Co-operation (OEEC) , established in April 1948 among the European recipients of Marshall Plan aid for the reconstruction of Europe after World War II . Only Western European states were members of

935-687: Is the list of indicators used both in the CAST framework and also in the Fragile States Index. Years of controversy over the "failed state" terminology in the index's name contributed to change in 2014, with a shift from the Failed States Index to the Fragile States Index. Critics had argued that the term established a false binary division, or false dichotomy , between states that were salvageable and those that were beyond recovery. Krista Hendry, FFP's executive director, explained

990-683: The Revolutions of 1989 , the OECD began assisting countries in and Eastern Europe (especially the Visegrád Group ) to prepare market economy reforms. In 1990, the Centre for Co-operation with European Economies in Transition (now succeeded by the Centre for Cooperation with Non-Members) was established, and in 1991, the programme, "Partners in Transition", was launched to offer a partnership to Czechoslovakia , Hungary and Poland, including

1045-716: The 1960s to the end of the 1990s was also described in the memoirs titled “the Bank of Japan and the OECD: Recollections and Reflections”, written in Japanese by Kumiharu Shigehara and published in December 2019. In his letter of 5 February 2019, Donald Johnston, OECD Secretary-General (1996-2006), noted that Shigehara's "book is very important for the OECD where there is little living institutional memory". The English edition of Shigehara's memoirs titled The Bank of Japan,

1100-617: The Declaration. The OECD publishes books, reports, statistics, working papers, and reference materials. All titles and databases published since 1998 can be accessed via OECD iLibrary . The OECD Library & Archives collection dates from 1947, including records from the Committee for European Economic Co-operation (CEEC) and the Organisation for European Economic Co-operation (OEEC), predecessors of today's OECD. External researchers can consult OECD publications and archival material on

1155-472: The FSI sends a message that the solution to problems in the developing world is "more state-building ", when in fact state-building could be viewed as a cause of instability or fragility. Claire Leigh, writing for The Guardian in 2012, condemned the index as a "useless policy tool" which focused only on the symptoms of struggling states, ignoring causes or potential cures. Critics have also identified flaws with

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1210-456: The FSI's measurement criteria, as well as the lack of transparency surrounding its base data analysis. For example, indicators related to refugees and human flight have allowed North Korea's score to improve as human emigration has declined; while this may indicate a stronger security apparatus in the state, it should not necessarily be recognized as an improvement. Additionally, analysis of the indicators has led several commentators to conclude that

1265-510: The FSI, as well as on data from the World Bank (which publishes its own lists of fragile states), since 2005. On a monthly basis, International Crisis Group (ICG) , a transnational non-governmental organization (NGO) , publishes CrisisWatch, a bulletin designed to inform readers about the development of state-based conflict across the globe. The reports indicate whether or not situations have improved, deteriorated, or remained unchanged from

1320-577: The Fund for Peace's Conflict Assessment Systems Tool (CAST), which utilizes specific filters and search parameters to sort data based on Boolean phrases linked to indicators, and assigns scores based on algorithms. Following CAST analysis, quantitative data from sources such as the United Nations (UN), World Health Organization (WHO), World Factbook , Transparency International , World Bank , and Freedom House are incorporated, which then leads to

1375-507: The G20. It is not certain when the proposals will be implemented. All the major economies agreed to pass national laws that would require corporations to pay at least 15% income tax in the countries they operate. This new policy would end the practice of locating world headquarters in small countries with very low taxation rates. Governments hope to recoup some of the lost revenue, estimated at $ 100 billion to $ 240 billion each year. The new system

1430-466: The OECD Convention after September 1961, but are nevertheless considered founding members. The official founding members are the following: Japan became a member in 1964, and over the following decade, Finland , Australia , and New Zealand also joined the organisation. Yugoslavia had observer status in the organisation, starting with the establishment of the OECD, until its dissolution as

1485-584: The OECD Ministerial Council Meeting on 13 May 2004, and on 16 May 2007, the OECD Ministerial Council decided to open accession discussions with Chile , Estonia , Israel , Russia , and Slovenia , and to strengthen cooperation with Brazil , China , India , Indonesia , and South Africa through a process of enhanced engagement. Chile, Slovenia, Israel, and Estonia all became members in 2010. In March 2014,

1540-549: The OECD Transfer Pricing Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises and Tax Administrations, a Model Tax Convention and country-by-country reporting rules. The OECD publishes and updates a model tax convention that serves as a template for allocating taxation rights between countries. This model is accompanied by a set of commentaries that reflect OECD-level interpretation of the content of the model convention provisions. In general, this model allocates

1595-476: The OECD announced that it "has transitioned to [an] open-access information model" and that Creative Commons CC‑BY‑4.0 attribution licenses will be used on all data and publications. There are 15 working papers series published by the various directorates of the OECD Secretariat. They are available on iLibrary, as well as on many specialised portals. The OECD is responsible for the OECD Guidelines for

1650-415: The OECD halted membership talks with Russia in response to its role in the 2014 Annexation of Crimea . In 2013, the OECD decided to open membership talks with Colombia and Latvia . In 2015, the Organisation opened talks with Costa Rica and Lithuania . Latvia became a member on 1 July 2016, and Lithuania soon followed on 5 July 2018. Colombia signed the accession agreement on 30 May 2018 and became

1705-473: The OECD premises by appointment. The OECD releases about 600 books and over 400 papers yearly on topics spanning public policy. The publications are updated to the OECD iLibrary. Most books are published in English and French. The OECD flagship titles include: All OECD books are available on the OECD iLibrary, the online bookshop or OECD Library & Archives. OECD Observer , an award-winning magazine,

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1760-514: The OECD suspended the participation of Russia and Belarus due to the ongoing 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine . In June 2022, during the annual OECD Ministerial Council Meeting, the Roadmaps for the Accession to the OECD Convention for Brazil , Bulgaria , Croatia , Peru and Romania were adopted. The OECD sets the rules governing international taxation for multinationals through

1815-579: The OECD, and Beyond was published by Palgrave Macmillan in September 2024. The OECD is known as a statistical agency , as it publishes comparable statistics on numerous subjects. In July 2014, the OECD publicly released its main statistical databases through the OECD Data Portal, an online platform that allows visitors to create custom charts based on official OECD indicators. OECD statistics are available in several forms: In July 2024,

1870-520: The OEEC would set to work straight away on convincing Japan to join the organisation. The Convention on the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development was signed on 14 December 1960, and the OECD officially superseded the OEEC in September 1961, consisting of the European founder countries of the OEEC, with the additions of the United States and Canada. Three countries, (Netherlands, Luxembourg, and Italy)—all OEEC members—ratified

1925-624: The OEEC, whose primary function was the allocation of American aid. Its Secretaries-General were the Frenchmen Robert Marjolin (1948–1955) and René Sergent (1955–1960). It was headquartered in the Château de la Muette in Paris. Following the end of Marshall aid in 1952, the OEEC focused on economic issues. Its coordinating role was challenged after the 1957 Rome Treaties establishing the European Economic Community and Euratom . The OEEC provided

1980-541: The Organisation. In 1995, Cyprus applied for membership, but according to the Cypriot government, it was vetoed by Turkey . In 1996, Estonia , Latvia , and Lithuania signed a Joint Declaration expressing willingness to become members of the OECD, and Slovenia also applied for membership that same year. In 2005, Malta applied to join the Organisation. The EU is lobbying for the admission of all EU member states . Romania reaffirmed in 2012 its intention to become

2035-628: The Testing of Chemicals , a continuously updated document that is a de facto standard (i.e., soft law). It published the OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030 in March 2008, which argues that tackling key environmental problems—including climate change , biodiversity loss , water scarcity , and the health impacts of pollution —is both achievable and affordable. In 2020, the inaugural University Press Redux Sustainability Award

2090-401: The change in part as a reaction to the debate the term failed state had generated, noting that "the name was negatively impacting our ability to get the right kind of attention for the FSI". Several academics and journalists have also criticized the FSI for a lack of utility and its measurement criteria. Authors writing for The National Interest and The Washington Post have argued that

2145-435: The corresponding bitwise operations are represented by "|", "&" and "~" (tilde). In the mathematical literature the symbols used are often "+" ( plus ), " · " ( dot ) and overbar , or "∨" ( vel ), "∧" ( et ) and "¬" ( not ) or "′" (prime). Some languages, e.g., Perl and Ruby , have two sets of Boolean operators, with identical functions but different precedence. Typically these languages use and , or and not for

2200-435: The cost borne by the member countries, such as sending their officials to OECD meetings and maintaining permanent delegations, is equivalent to the cost of running the secretariat. This ratio is unique among inter-governmental organisations. In other words, the OECD is more a persistent forum or network of officials and experts than an administration. The OECD regularly holds minister-level meetings and forums as platforms for

2255-549: The final phase of qualitative reviews of each indicator for each country. Considered together in the index, the indicators are a way of assessing a state's vulnerability to collapse or conflict, ranking states on a spectrum of categories labeled sustainable , stable , warning , and alert . Within each bracket, scores are also subdivided by severity. The score breakdown is as follows: High: 100–109.9 Alert: 90–99.9 Warning: 70–79.9 Low: 60–69.9 Stable: 40–49.9 More stable: 30–39.9 Very sustainable: 0–19.9 All countries in

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2310-562: The first time in Kumiharu Shigehara, “Multilateral Surveillance: What the OECD can offer?” (the 1996 Global Finance Lecture, the University of Birmingham, 1996; OECD publication, Paris, 1996) at a time when Shigehara was OECD Chief Economist and Head of Economics Department (1992–1997); he was subsequently OECD Deputy Secretary-General (1997–1999). It was also discussed in: The history of OECD multilateral surveillance from

2365-429: The given policy area. OECD has a number of specialised bodies: OECD decisions are made through voting, which requires unanimity among all of those voting. Each member country has one vote. However, dissenting members which do not wish to block a decision but merely to signal their disapproval can abstain from voting. 22 of the OECD member countries are also EU member states. As of May 2021 there are 38 members of

2420-450: The lower precedence operators. Some programming languages derived from PL/I have a bit string type and use BIT(1) rather than a separate Boolean type. In those languages the same operators serve for Boolean operations and bitwise operations. The languages represent OR, AND, NOT and EXCLUSIVE OR by "|", "&", "¬" (infix) and "¬" (prefix). Some programming languages, e.g., Ada , have short-circuit Boolean operators. These operators use

2475-562: The other (such as between OECD and non-OECD pairings). Additionally, the OECD has published and updated the Transfer Pricing Guidelines since 1995. The Transfer Pricing Guidelines serve as a template for the profit allocation of inter-company transactions to countries. The latest version, of July 2017, incorporates the approved Actions developed under the Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) project initiated by

2530-412: The previous month, and seek to highlight where there may be risks of new/escalated (or opportunities for resolution of) conflicts in the coming month. Boolean expression In computer science , a Boolean expression is an expression used in programming languages that produces a Boolean value when evaluated. A Boolean value is either true or false . A Boolean expression may be composed of

2585-423: The primary right to tax to the country from which capital investment originates (i.e., the home, or resident country) rather than the country in which the investment is made (the host, or source country). As a result, it is most effective between two countries with reciprocal investment flows (such as among the OECD member countries), but can be unbalanced when one of the signatory countries is economically weaker than

2640-415: The red zone, though fragile, may exhibit positive signs of recovery or be deteriorating slowly, giving them time to adopt mitigating strategies. Twelve conflict risk indicators are used to measure the condition of a state at any given moment. The indicators provide a snapshot in time that can be measured against other snapshots in a time series to determine whether conditions are improving or worsening. Below

2695-567: The risk of state fragility, the Index — and the social science framework and data analysis tools upon which it is built — makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large. Scores are obtained via a process involving content analysis, quantitative data, and qualitative review. In the content analysis phase, millions of documents from over 100,000 English-language or translated sources (social media are excluded) are scanned and filtered through

2750-475: The top three categories display features that make their societies and institutions vulnerable to failure. However, the FSI is not intended as a tool to predict when states may experience violence or collapse, as it does not measure direction or pace of change. It is possible for a state sorted into the 'stable' zone to be deteriorating at a faster rate than those in the more fragile 'warning' or 'alert' zones, and could experience violence sooner. Conversely, states in

2805-692: The way the ranking is put together since it was first published seventeen years ago in Foreign Policy magazine, seems to be disappearing as the ranking is focused on trends and rate-of-change. In addition, it is worth mentioning that the ranking focuses on measuring a country's performance over time against itself rather than against other countries' performance. The attention is then paid to a country’s individual indicator scores instead of only its total composite score. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has based its annual Fragile States Report, now named 'States of Fragility', on

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2860-745: Was given to OECD by the Association of Learned and Professional Society Publishers (ALPSP) and Cambridge University Press . The award recognized the development of the SDG Pathfinder, an open-access digital discovery tool for finding content and data relating to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The OECD's structure consists of three main elements: Delegates from the member countries attend committee and other meetings. Former Deputy Secretary-General Pierre Vinde  [ sv ] estimated in 1997 that

2915-457: Was introduced in Q2 2013. The OECD Observer was last issued in the fourth quarter of 2019, with a double edition looking ahead at artificial intelligence, and a cover leading on why statistical offices should hire a comedian. The OECD Observer website closed in the first quarter of 2021; the archive can be consulted at www.oecd.org. The OECD's multilateral surveillance was systematically reviewed for

2970-478: Was launched in 1962. The magazine appeared six times a year until 2010, and became quarterly in 2011 with the introduction of the OECD Yearbook , launched for the 50th anniversary of the organisation. The online and mobile editions contained news, analysis, reviews, commentaries and data on global economic, social and environmental challenges and listings of the latest OECD books. An OECD Observer Crossword

3025-752: Was promoted by the Biden Administration in the United States and the OECD. Secretary-General Mathias Cormann of the OECD said, "This historic package will ensure that large multinational companies pay their fair share of tax everywhere." The OECD Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises are a set of legally non-binding guidelines attached as an annex to the OECD Declaration on International Investment and Multinational Enterprises. They are recommendations providing principles and standards for responsible business conduct for multinational corporations operating in or from countries adhering to

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