Misplaced Pages

#219780

225-420: Unlike the physical sciences where a narrower, more specified system is studied, futures studies concerns a much bigger and more complex world system. The methodology and knowledge are less proven than in natural science and social sciences like sociology and economics. There used to be a debate as to whether this discipline was an art or science, and it was sometimes described as pseudoscience ; Nevertheless,

450-592: A deity or other supernatural entity or entities. Some religions have religious texts which they view as divinely or supernaturally revealed or inspired. For instance, Orthodox Jews , Christians and Muslims believe that the Torah was received from Yahweh on biblical Mount Sinai . Most Christians believe that both the Old Testament and the New Testament were inspired by God. Muslims believe

675-490: A non-physical entity ; such as a ghost , fairy , jinn or angel . The concepts of a person's spirit and soul , often also overlap, as both are either contrasted with or given ontological priority over the body and both are believed to survive bodily death in some religions, and "spirit" can also have the sense of " ghost ", i.e. a manifestation of the spirit of a deceased person. In English Bibles , "the Spirit" (with

900-720: A polytheistic religion)", or anything revered as divine. C. Scott Littleton defines a deity as "a being with powers greater than those of ordinary humans, but who interacts with humans, positively or negatively, in ways that carry humans to new levels of consciousness , beyond the grounded preoccupations of ordinary life." A male deity is a god , while a female deity is a goddess . Religions can be categorized by how many deities they worship. Monotheistic religions accept only one deity (predominantly referred to as God), polytheistic religions accept multiple deities. Henotheistic religions accept one supreme deity without denying other deities, considering them as equivalent aspects of

1125-409: A realist perspective considering the observed phenomena as an external and independent reality is often associated with an emphasis on empirical data collection and a more distanced and objective attitude. Idealists , on the other hand, hold that external reality is not fully independent of the mind and tend, therefore, to include more subjective tendencies in the research process as well. For

1350-458: A research question , which determines what kind of information one intends to acquire. Some theorists prefer an even wider understanding of methodology that involves not just the description, comparison, and evaluation of methods but includes additionally more general philosophical issues. One reason for this wider approach is that discussions of when to use which method often take various background assumptions for granted, for example, concerning

1575-455: A semi-deity or other strange kind of being, such as this discourse examines the notion of. And besides these more absolute acceptions, if I may so call them, of the word nature , it has divers others (more relative), as nature is wont to be set or in opposition or contradistinction to other things, as when we say of a stone when it falls downwards that it does it by a natural motion , but that if it be thrown upwards its motion that way

1800-412: A biologist inserting viral DNA into a bacterium is engaged in a form of experimentation. Pure observation, on the other hand, involves studying independent entities in a passive manner. This is the case, for example, when astronomers observe the orbits of astronomical objects far away. Observation played the main role in ancient science . The scientific revolution in the 16th and 17th century affected

2025-449: A body, especially a living one, as when physicians say that nature is strong or weak or spent, or that in such or such diseases nature left to herself will do the cure . Sometimes we take nature for the universe , or system of the corporeal works of God , as when it is said of a phoenix , or a chimera , that there is no such thing in nature , i.e. in the world. And sometimes too, and that most commonly, we would express by nature

2250-557: A bona fide trend. Trends can also gain confirmation by the existence of other trends perceived as springing from the same branch. Some commentators claim that when 15% to 25% of a given population integrates an innovation, project, belief or action into their daily life then a trend becomes mainstream. Gartner created their Hype cycle to illustrate the phases a technology moves through as it grows from research and development to mainstream adoption. The unrealistic expectations and subsequent disillusionment that virtual reality experienced in

2475-421: A by-product of the doctrine of creation ex nihilo . In process thought, there is no such thing as a realm of the natural in contrast to that which is supernatural. On the other hand, if "the natural" is defined more neutrally as "what is in the nature of things," then process metaphysics characterizes the natural as the creative activity of actual entities. In Whitehead's words, "It lies in the nature of things that

SECTION 10

#1732794356220

2700-632: A capital "S"), specifically denotes the Holy Spirit . Spirit is often used metaphysically to refer to the consciousness or personality . Historically, it was also used to refer to a "subtle" as opposed to "gross" material substance, as in the famous last paragraph of Sir Isaac Newton 's Principia Mathematica . A demon (from Koine Greek δαιμόνιον daimónion ) is a supernatural and often malevolent being prevalent in religion , occultism , literature , fiction , mythology and folklore . In Ancient Near Eastern religions as well as in

2925-432: A coherent perspective by examining and reevaluating all the relevant beliefs and intuitions. Pragmatists focus on the practical consequences of philosophical theories to assess whether they are true or false. Experimental philosophy is a recently developed approach that uses the methodology of social psychology and the cognitive sciences for gathering empirical evidence and justifying philosophical claims. In

3150-405: A complex body of rules and postulates guiding research or as the analysis of such rules and procedures. As a body of rules and postulates, a methodology defines the subject of analysis as well as the conceptual tools used by the analysis and the limits of the analysis. Research projects are usually governed by a structured procedure known as the research process. The goal of this process is given by

3375-425: A comprehensive philosophical system based on them. Phenomenology gives particular importance to how things appear to be. It consists in suspending one's judgments about whether these things actually exist in the external world. This technique is known as epoché and can be used to study appearances independent of assumptions about their causes. The method of conceptual analysis came to particular prominence with

3600-402: A continuum and not as a dichotomy. A lot of qualitative research is concerned with some form of human experience or behavior , in which case it tends to focus on a few individuals and their in-depth understanding of the meaning of the studied phenomena. Examples of the qualitative method are a market researcher conducting a focus group in order to learn how people react to a new product or

3825-439: A fixed set of questions given to each individual. They contrast with unstructured interviews , which are closer to a free-flow conversation and require more improvisation on the side of the interviewer for finding interesting and relevant questions. Semi-structured interviews constitute a middle ground: they include both predetermined questions and questions not planned in advance. Structured interviews make it easier to compare

4050-548: A forerunner of social and technological forecasting. A series of techno-optimistic newspaper articles and books were published between 1890 and 1914 in the US and Europe. After World War I the Italian Futurism movement led by Filippo Tommaso Marinetti glorified modernity . Soviet futurists, such as Vladimir Mayakovsky , David Burliuk , and Vasily Kamensky struggled against official communist cultural policy throughout

4275-436: A limited and subordinate utility but becomes a diversion or even counterproductive by hindering practice when given too much emphasis. Another line of criticism concerns more the general and abstract nature of methodology. It states that the discussion of methods is only useful in concrete and particular cases but not concerning abstract guidelines governing many or all cases. Some anti-methodologists reject methodology based on

4500-592: A master's degree program in 1975 at the University of Houston–Clear Lake . In 1976, the M.A. Program in Public Policy in Alternative Futures at the University of Hawaii at Manoa was established. Alvin & Heidi Toffler 's bestseller Future Shock in 1970 generated mainstream attention for futures studies on the post-industrial economy . It popularized the metaphor of waves to describe

4725-404: A medical researcher performing an unstructured in-depth interview with a participant from a new experimental therapy to assess its potential benefits and drawbacks. It is also used to improve quantitative research, such as informing data collection materials and questionnaire design. Qualitative research is frequently employed in fields where the pre-existing knowledge is inadequate. This way, it

SECTION 20

#1732794356220

4950-446: A medieval scholastic of the 12th century, explored causes beyond nature, questioning how certain phenomena could be attributed solely to God. In his writings, he used the term praeter naturam to describe these occurrences. In the scholastic period, Thomas Aquinas classified miracles into three categories: "above nature", "beyond nature" and "against nature". In doing so, he sharpened the distinction between nature and miracles more than

5175-400: A more social character, usually in a religious context, as seen in traditional African medicine . Fortune-telling, on the other hand, is a more everyday practice for personal purposes. Particular divination methods vary by culture and religion. Divination is dismissed by the scientific community and skeptics as being superstition . In the 2nd century, Lucian devoted a witty essay to

5400-404: A negative form based on falsification. In this regard, positive instances do not confirm a hypothesis but negative instances disconfirm it. Positive indications that the hypothesis is true are only given indirectly if many attempts to find counterexamples have failed. A cornerstone of this approach is the null hypothesis , which assumes that there is no connection (see causality ) between whatever

5625-455: A paradigm change that gave a much more central role to experimentation in the scientific methodology. This is sometimes expressed by stating that modern science actively "puts questions to nature". While the distinction is usually clear in the paradigmatic cases, there are also many intermediate cases where it is not obvious whether they should be characterized as observation or as experimentation. A central discussion in this field concerns

5850-484: A particular case. According to Aleksandr Georgievich Spirkin, "[a] methodology is a system of principles and general ways of organising and structuring theoretical and practical activity, and also the theory of this system". Helen Kara defines methodology as "a contextual framework for research, a coherent and logical scheme based on views, beliefs, and values, that guides the choices researchers make". Ginny E. Garcia and Dudley L. Poston understand methodology either as

6075-404: A physical system by a subject without any known intermediate energy or instrumentation" (1945:305). Views on the "supernatural" vary, for example it may be seen as: Anthropological studies across cultures indicate that people do not hold or use natural and supernatural explanations in a mutually exclusive or dichotomous fashion. Instead, the reconciliation of natural and supernatural explanations

6300-530: A plausible theory of knowledge and instead turned to pluralism . At the 1967 First international Future Research Conference" in Oslo research on urban sprawl , hunger , and education was presented. In 1968 Olaf Helmer of the RAND Corporation conceded "One begins to realize that there is a wealth of possible futures and that these possibilities can be shaped in different ways". Future studies worked on

6525-602: A process together with familiarity with the fundamental attributes of most commonly used methods. Futurology is sometimes described by scientists as a pseudoscience , as it often deals with speculative scenarios and long-term predictions that can be difficult to test using traditional scientific methods. Futurists use a diverse range of forecasting and foresight methods including: Futurists use scenarios—alternative possible futures—as an important tool. To some extent, people can determine what they consider probable or desirable using qualitative and quantitative methods. By looking at

6750-434: A profound basis. A fad operates in the short term, shows the vagaries of fashion, affects particular societal groups, and spreads quickly but superficially. Futurists have a decidedly mixed reputation and a patchy track record at successful prediction. Many 1950s futurists predicted commonplace space tourism by 2000, but ignored the possibilities of ubiquitous, cheap computers. On the other hand, many forecasts have portrayed

6975-445: A querent should proceed by reading signs, events, or omens , or through alleged contact with a supernatural agency. Divination can be seen as a systematic method with which to organize what appear to be disjointed, random facets of existence such that they provide insight into a problem at hand. If a distinction is to be made between divination and fortune-telling , divination has a more formal or ritualistic element and often contains

Futures studies - Misplaced Pages Continue

7200-634: A range of possibilities can enhance the recognition of opportunities and threats. Every successful and unsuccessful business engages in futuring to some degree—for example in research and development, innovation and market research, anticipating competitor behavior and so on. Role-playing is another way that possible futures can be collectively explored, as in the research larp Civilisation's Waiting Room . In futures research "weak signals" may be understood as advanced, noisy and socially situated indicators of change in trends and systems that constitute raw informational material for enabling anticipatory action. There

7425-502: A research project. In this sense, methodologies include various theoretical commitments about the intended outcomes of the investigation. The term "methodology" is sometimes used as a synonym for the term "method". A method is a way of reaching some predefined goal. It is a planned and structured procedure for solving a theoretical or practical problem . In this regard, methods stand in contrast to free and unstructured approaches to problem-solving. For example, descriptive statistics

7650-609: A research question and helps the researchers decide what methods to use in the process. For example, methodology should assist the researcher in deciding why one method of sampling is preferable to another in a particular case or which form of data analysis is likely to bring the best results. Methodology achieves this by explaining, evaluating and justifying methods. Just as there are different methods, there are also different methodologies. Different methodologies provide different approaches to how methods are evaluated and explained and may thus make different suggestions on what method to use in

7875-491: A sequence of repeatable instructions. The goal of following the steps of a method is to bring about the result promised by it. In the context of inquiry, methods may be defined as systems of rules and procedures to discover regularities of nature , society , and thought . In this sense, methodology can refer to procedures used to arrive at new knowledge or to techniques of verifying and falsifying pre-existing knowledge claims. This encompasses various issues pertaining both to

8100-486: A single researcher or a single discipline but are in need of collaborative efforts from many fields. Such interdisciplinary undertakings profit a lot from methodological advances, both concerning the ability to understand the methods of the respective fields and in relation to developing more homogeneous methods equally used by all of them. Most criticism of methodology is directed at one specific form or understanding of it. In such cases, one particular methodological theory

8325-407: A spiritual entity that may be conjured and controlled. Magic or sorcery is the use of rituals , symbols , actions, gestures , or language with the aim of utilizing supernatural forces. Belief in and practice of magic has been present since the earliest human cultures and continues to have an important spiritual, religious and medicinal role in many cultures today. The term magic has

8550-450: A stone let fall in the air is by nature carried towards the centre of the earth , and, on the contrary, that fire or flame does naturally move upwards toward firmament . Sometimes we understand by nature the established course of things, as when we say that nature makes the night succeed the day , nature hath made respiration necessary to the life of men. Sometimes we take nature for an aggregate of powers belonging to

8775-404: A supernatural entity reported as being present during the event is called a vision . Direct conversations between the recipient and the supernatural entity, or physical marks such as stigmata , have been reported. In rare cases, such as that of Saint Juan Diego , physical artifacts accompany the revelation. The Roman Catholic concept of interior locution includes just an inner voice heard by

9000-523: A time, until the solution to the initial problem is found. An important advantage of the synthetic method is its clear and short logical exposition. One disadvantage is that it is usually not obvious in the beginning that the steps taken lead to the intended conclusion. This may then come as a surprise to the reader since it is not explained how the mathematician knew in the beginning which steps to take. The analytic method often reflects better how mathematicians actually make their discoveries. For this reason, it

9225-480: A trend and was about to be a topic of mainstream awareness. "Wild cards" refer to low-probability and high-impact events "that happen quickly" and "have huge sweeping consequences", and materialize too quickly for social systems to effectively respond. Elina Hiltunen notes that wild cards are not new, though they have become more prevalent. One reason for this may be the increasingly fast pace of change. Oliver Markley proposed four types of wild cards: He posits that it

Futures studies - Misplaced Pages Continue

9450-438: A variety of meanings, and there is no widely agreed upon definition of what it is. Scholars of religion have defined magic in different ways. One approach, associated with the anthropologists Edward Tylor and James G. Frazer , suggests that magic and science are opposites. An alternative approach, associated with the sociologists Marcel Mauss and Emile Durkheim , argues that magic takes place in private, while religion

9675-479: A variety of possibilities one comes closer to shaping the future, rather than predicting it. Shaping alternative futures starts by establishing a number of scenarios. Setting up scenarios takes place as a process with many stages, and can take place in an evidence-based manner. Scenarios can also study unlikely and improbable developments that would otherwise be ignored. However, for credibility, they should not be entirely utopian or dystopian. One of those stages involves

9900-503: A variety of ways – masculine, feminine, androgynous and gender neutral. Historically, many ancient cultures – such as Ancient India , Ancient Iraq , Ancient Egyptian , Ancient Greek , Ancient Roman , Nordic and Asian culture – personified natural phenomena , variously as either their conscious causes or simply their effects, respectively. Some Avestan and Vedic deities were viewed as ethical concepts. In Indian religions , deities have been envisioned as manifesting within

10125-447: A very similar method: it approaches philosophical questions by looking at how the corresponding terms are used in ordinary language . Many methods in philosophy rely on some form of intuition . They are used, for example, to evaluate thought experiments , which involve imagining situations to assess their possible consequences in order to confirm or refute philosophical theories. The method of reflective equilibrium tries to form

10350-488: A way of mastering it. On the theoretical side, this concerns ways of forming true beliefs and solving problems. On the practical side, this concerns skills of influencing nature and dealing with each other. These different methods are usually passed down from one generation to the next. Spirkin holds that the interest in methodology on a more abstract level arose in attempts to formalize these techniques to improve them as well as to make it easier to use them and pass them on. In

10575-453: Is violent . So chemists distinguish vitriol into natural and fictitious , or made by art, i.e. by the intervention of human power or skill; so it is said that water , kept suspended in a sucking pump, is not in its natural place, as that is which is stagnant in the well. We say also that wicked men are still in the state of nature , but the regenerate in a state of grace ; that cures wrought by medicines are natural operations; but

10800-433: Is a combination of extensive evidence of something not occurring , combined with an underlying scientific theory , very successful in making predictions, whose assumptions lead logically to the conclusion that something is impossible. While an impossibility assertion in natural science can never be absolutely proved, it could be refuted by the observation of a single counterexample . Such a counterexample would require that

11025-491: Is a communal and organised activity. Many scholars of religion have rejected the utility of the term magic and it has become increasingly unpopular within scholarship since the 1990s. The term magic comes from the Old Persian magu , a word that applied to a form of religious functionary about which little is known. During the late sixth and early fifth centuries BC, this term was adopted into Ancient Greek , where it

11250-435: Is a method of data analysis , radiocarbon dating is a method of determining the age of organic objects, sautéing is a method of cooking, and project-based learning is an educational method. The term "technique" is often used as a synonym both in the academic and the everyday discourse. Methods usually involve a clearly defined series of decisions and actions to be used under certain circumstances, usually expressable as

11475-407: Is a school of thought influenced by the metaphysical process philosophy of Alfred North Whitehead (1861–1947) and further developed by Charles Hartshorne (1897–2000). It is not possible, in process metaphysics, to conceive divine activity as a "supernatural" intervention into the "natural" order of events. Process theists usually regard the distinction between the supernatural and the natural as

SECTION 50

#1732794356220

11700-407: Is a structured procedure for bringing about a certain goal, like acquiring knowledge or verifying knowledge claims. This normally involves various steps, like choosing a sample , collecting data from this sample, and interpreting the data. The study of methods concerns a detailed description and analysis of these processes. It includes evaluative aspects by comparing different methods. This way, it

11925-494: Is adequate when applied to the social domain. A few theorists reject methodology as a discipline in general. For example, some argue that it is useless since methods should be used rather than studied. Others hold that it is harmful because it restricts the freedom and creativity of researchers. Methodologists often respond to these objections by claiming that a good methodology helps researchers arrive at reliable theories in an efficient way. The choice of method often matters since

12150-614: Is already Here . Fred L. Polak published Images of the Future in 1961, it has become a classic text on imagining alternative futures. In the 1960s, human-centered methods of future studies were developed in Europe by Bertrand de Jouvenel and Johan Galtung . The positivist idea of a single future was challenged by scientists such as Thomas Kuhn , Karl Popper , and Jürgen Habermas . Future studies established itself as an academic field when social scientists began to question positivism as

12375-481: Is an interdisciplinary field that aggregates and analyzes trends, with both lay and professional methods, to compose possible futures. It includes analyzing the sources, patterns, and causes of change and stability in an attempt to develop foresight. Around the world the field is variously referred to as futures studies , futures research, strategic foresight , futuristics , futures thinking , futuring , and futurology . Futures studies and strategic foresight are

12600-501: Is an inborn natural tendency in children to develop in a certain way. For them, pedagogy is about how to help this process happen by ensuring that the required external conditions are set up. Herbartianism identifies five essential components of teaching: preparation, presentation, association, generalization, and application. They correspond to different phases of the educational process: getting ready for it, showing new ideas, bringing these ideas in relation to known ideas, understanding

12825-516: Is assessed what advantages and disadvantages they have and for what research goals they may be used. These descriptions and evaluations depend on philosophical background assumptions. Examples are how to conceptualize the studied phenomena and what constitutes evidence for or against them. When understood in the widest sense, methodology also includes the discussion of these more abstract issues. Methodologies are traditionally divided into quantitative and qualitative research . Quantitative research

13050-405: Is being observed. It is up to the researcher to do all they can to disprove their own hypothesis through relevant methods or techniques, documented in a clear and replicable process. If they fail to do so, it can be concluded that the null hypothesis is false, which provides support for their own hypothesis about the relation between the observed phenomena. Significantly more methodological variety

13275-418: Is called "proceduralism". According to it, the goal of methodology is to boil down the research process to a simple set of rules or a recipe that automatically leads to good research if followed precisely. However, it has been argued that, while this ideal may be acceptable for some forms of quantitative research, it fails for qualitative research. One argument for this position is based on the claim that research

13500-403: Is central to both approaches how the group of individuals used for the data collection is selected. This process is known as sampling . It involves the selection of a subset of individuals or phenomena to be measured. Important in this regard is that the selected samples are representative of the whole population, i.e. that no significant biases were involved when choosing. If this is not the case,

13725-540: Is closely associated with the natural sciences . It is based on precise numerical measurements, which are then used to arrive at exact general laws. This precision is also reflected in the goal of making predictions that can later be verified by other researchers. Examples of quantitative research include physicists at the Large Hadron Collider measuring the mass of newly created particles and positive psychologists conducting an online survey to determine

SECTION 60

#1732794356220

13950-500: Is defined in the Journal of Parapsychology as "personal factors or processes in nature which transcend accepted laws" (1948: 311) and "which are non-physical in nature" (1962:310), and it is used to cover both extrasensory perception (ESP), an "awareness of or response to an external event or influence not apprehended by sensory means" (1962:309) or inferred from sensory knowledge, and psychokinesis (PK), "the direct influence exerted on

14175-489: Is found in many ancient cultures, and a belief in rebirth/ metempsychosis was held by Greek historic figures, such as Pythagoras , Socrates and Plato . It is also a common belief of various ancient and modern religions such as Spiritism , Theosophy and Eckankar and as an esoteric belief in many streams of Orthodox Judaism . It is found as well in many tribal societies around the world, in places such as Australia , East Asia , Siberia and South America . Although

14400-413: Is found in the social sciences , where both quantitative and qualitative approaches are used. They employ various forms of data collection, such as surveys , interviews, focus groups, and the nominal group technique. Surveys belong to quantitative research and usually involve some form of questionnaire given to a large group of individuals. It is paramount that the questions are easily understandable by

14625-432: Is important so that other researchers are able to repeat the experiments to confirm or disconfirm the initial study. For this reason, various factors and variables of the situation often have to be controlled to avoid distorting influences and to ensure that subsequent measurements by other researchers yield the same results. The scientific method is a quantitative approach that aims at obtaining numerical data. This data

14850-455: Is important to track the emergence of "Type II Wild Cards" that have a high probability of occurring, but low credibility that it will happen. This focus is especially important to note because it is often difficult to persuade people to accept something they do not believe is happening, until they see the wild card. An example is climate change. This hypothesis has gone from Type I (high impact and high credibility, but low probability where science

15075-491: Is initially a blank slate . Learning is a form of developing the mind by helping it establish the right associations. Behaviorism is a more externally oriented learning theory. It identifies learning with classical conditioning , in which the learner's behavior is shaped by presenting them with a stimulus with the goal of evoking and solidifying the desired response pattern to this stimulus . Supernatural Supernatural refers to phenomena or entities that are beyond

15300-414: Is known as " angelology ". In fine art , angels are usually depicted as having the shape of human beings of extraordinary beauty; they are often identified using the symbols of bird wings , halos and light . Prophecy involves a process in which messages are communicated by a god to a prophet . Such messages typically involve inspiration, interpretation, or revelation of divine will concerning

15525-515: Is natural or ordinary; unnaturally or extraordinarily great; abnormal, extraordinary". Obsolete uses include "of, relating to, or dealing with metaphysics ". As a noun, the term can mean "a supernatural being", with a particularly strong history of employment in relation to entities from the mythologies of the indigenous peoples of the Americas . The ancient world had no word that resembled "supernatural". Dialogues from Neoplatonic philosophy in

15750-412: Is no one single scientific method. In this regard, the expression "scientific method" refers not to one specific procedure but to different general or abstract methodological aspects characteristic of all the aforementioned fields. Important features are that the problem is formulated in a clear manner and that the evidence presented for or against a theory is public, reliable, and replicable. The last point

15975-471: Is normal and pervasive across cultures. Cross cultural studies indicate that there is coexistence of natural and supernatural explanations in both adults and children for explaining numerous things about the world, such as illness, death, and origins. Context and cultural input play a large role in determining when and how individuals incorporate natural and supernatural explanations. The coexistence of natural and supernatural explanations in individuals may be

16200-436: Is not a technique but a craft that cannot be achieved by blindly following a method. In this regard, research depends on forms of creativity and improvisation to amount to good science. Other types include inductive, deductive, and transcendental methods. Inductive methods are common in the empirical sciences and proceed through inductive reasoning from many particular observations to arrive at general conclusions, often in

16425-578: Is not just a waste of time but actually has negative side effects. Such an argument may be defended by analogy to other skills that work best when the agent focuses only on employing them. In this regard, reflection may interfere with the process and lead to avoidable mistakes. According to an example by Gilbert Ryle , "[w]e run, as a rule, worse, not better, if we think a lot about our feet". A less severe version of this criticism does not reject methodology per se but denies its importance and rejects an intense focus on it. In this regard, methodology has still

16650-560: Is offered at the University of Turku , Finland. The University of Stellenbosch Business School in South Africa offers a PGDip in Future Studies as well as a MPhil in Future Studies degree. Methodology In its most common sense, methodology is the study of research methods. However, the term can also refer to the methods themselves or to the philosophical discussion of associated background assumptions. A method

16875-509: Is often argued that the paradigm of the natural sciences is a one-sided development of reason , which is not equally well suited to all areas of inquiry. The divide between quantitative and qualitative methods in the social sciences is one consequence of this criticism. Which method is more appropriate often depends on the goal of the research. For example, quantitative methods usually excel for evaluating preconceived hypotheses that can be clearly formulated and measured. Qualitative methods, on

17100-407: Is often broken down into several steps. In a typical case, the procedure starts with regular observation and the collection of information. These findings then lead the scientist to formulate a hypothesis describing and explaining the observed phenomena. The next step consists in conducting an experiment designed for this specific hypothesis. The actual results of the experiment are then compared to

17325-441: Is often described using mathematical formulas. The goal is usually to arrive at some universal generalizations that apply not just to the artificial situation of the experiment but to the world at large. Some data can only be acquired using advanced measurement instruments. In cases where the data is very complex, it is often necessary to employ sophisticated statistical techniques to draw conclusions from it. The scientific method

17550-427: Is often seen as the better method for teaching mathematics. It starts with the intended conclusion and tries to find another formula from which it can be deduced. It then goes on to apply the same process to this new formula until it has traced back all the way to already proven theorems. The difference between the two methods concerns primarily how mathematicians think and present their proofs . The two are equivalent in

17775-402: Is possible to get a first impression of the field and potential theories, thus paving the way for investigating the issue in further studies. Quantitative methods dominate in the natural sciences but both methodologies are used in the social sciences. Some social scientists focus mostly on one method while others try to investigate the same phenomenon using a variety of different methods. It

18000-402: Is possible within the boundaries of the laws of physics. Epistemologically , the relationship between the supernatural and the natural is indistinct in terms of natural phenomena that, ex hypothesi, violate the laws of nature, in so far as such laws are realistically accountable . Parapsychologists use the term psi to refer to an assumed unitary force underlying the phenomena they study. Psi

18225-445: Is rejected but not methodology at large when understood as a field of research comprising many different theories. In this regard, many objections to methodology focus on the quantitative approach, specifically when it is treated as the only viable approach. Nonetheless, there are also more fundamental criticisms of methodology in general. They are often based on the idea that there is little value to abstract discussions of methods and

18450-415: Is rejected by interpretivists . Max Weber , for example, argues that the method of the natural sciences is inadequate for the social sciences. Instead, more importance is placed on meaning and how people create and maintain their social worlds. The critical methodology in social science is associated with Karl Marx and Sigmund Freud . It is based on the assumption that many of the phenomena studied using

18675-480: Is similar but the interaction between the participants is more structured. The goal is to determine how much agreement there is among the experts on the different issues. The initial responses are often given in written form by each participant without a prior conversation between them. In this manner, group effects potentially influencing the expressed opinions are minimized. In later steps, the different responses and comments may be discussed and compared to each other by

18900-429: Is some confusion about the definition of weak signal by various researchers and consultants. Sometimes it is referred as future oriented information, sometimes more like emerging issues. The confusion has been partly clarified with the concept 'the future sign', by separating signal, issue and interpretation of the future sign. A weak signal can be an early indicator of coming change, and an example might also help clarify

19125-430: Is termed a "procedure". A similar but less complex characterization is sometimes found in the field of language teaching , where the teaching process may be described through a three-level conceptualization based on "approach", "method", and "technique". One question concerning the definition of methodology is whether it should be understood as a descriptive or a normative discipline. The key difference in this regard

19350-405: Is that "[m]ethodology is too important to be left to methodologists". Alan Bryman has rejected this negative outlook on methodology. He holds that Becker's criticism can be avoided by understanding methodology as an inclusive inquiry into all kinds of methods and not as a mere doctrine for converting non-believers to one's preferred method. Part of the importance of methodology is reflected in

19575-626: Is that the different paradigms are incommensurable . This means that there is no overarching framework to assess the conflicting theoretical and methodological assumptions. This critique puts into question various presumptions of the quantitative approach associated with scientific progress based on the steady accumulation of data. Other discussions of abstract theoretical issues in the philosophy of science are also sometimes included. This can involve questions like how and whether scientific research differs from fictional writing as well as whether research studies objective facts rather than constructing

19800-473: Is that there is disagreement about the definition of "natural" and the limits of naturalism . Concepts in the supernatural domain are closely related to concepts in religious spirituality and occultism or spiritualism . For sometimes we use the word nature for that Author of nature whom the schoolmen , harshly enough, call natura naturans , as when it is said that nature hath made man partly corporeal and partly immaterial . Sometimes we mean by

20025-470: Is the philosophical or religious concept that an aspect of a living being starts a new life in a different physical body or form after each biological death . It is also called rebirth or transmigration , and is a part of the Saṃsāra doctrine of cyclic existence. It is a central tenet of all major Indian religions , namely Jainism , Hinduism , Buddhism and Sikhism . The idea of reincarnation

20250-509: Is the adherence to the supernatural (beliefs, and not violations of causality and the physical laws). Occurring as both an adjective and a noun , antecedents of the modern English compound supernatural enter the language from two sources: via Middle French ( supernaturel ) and directly from the Middle French's term's ancestor, post- Classical Latin ( supernaturalis ). Post-classical Latin supernaturalis first occurs in

20475-592: Is the main idea of the project, or what the outcome of the project seeks to determine. Domains can have a strategic or exploratory focus and must narrow down the scope of the research. It examines what will, and more importantly, will not be discussed in the research. Futures practitioners study trends focusing on STEEP (Social, Technological, Economic, Environments and Political) baselines. Baseline exploration examine current STEEP environments to determine normal trends, called baselines. Next, practitioners use scenarios to explore different futures outcomes. Scenarios examine how

20700-416: Is the main methodology of the natural sciences . It uses precise numerical measurements . Its goal is usually to find universal laws used to make predictions about future events. The dominant methodology in the natural sciences is called the scientific method . It includes steps like observation and the formulation of a hypothesis . Further steps are to test the hypothesis using an experiment, to compare

20925-480: Is the most general term. It can be defined as "a way or direction used to address a problem based on a set of assumptions". An example is the difference between hierarchical approaches, which consider one task at a time in a hierarchical manner, and concurrent approaches, which consider them all simultaneously. Methodologies are a little more specific. They are general strategies needed to realize an approach and may be understood as guidelines for how to make choices. Often

21150-406: Is then argued that the observed phenomena can only exist if their conditions of possibility are fulfilled. This way, the researcher may draw general psychological or metaphysical conclusions based on the claim that the phenomenon would not be observable otherwise. It has been argued that a proper understanding of methodology is important for various issues in the field of research. They include both

21375-401: Is to what extent they can be applied to other fields, like the social sciences and history . The success of the natural sciences was often seen as an indication of the superiority of the quantitative methodology and used as an argument to apply this approach to other fields as well. However, this outlook has been put into question in the more recent methodological discourse. In this regard, it

21600-425: Is usually difficult to use these insights to discern more general patterns true for a wider public. One advantage of focus groups is that they can help the researcher identify a wide range of distinct perspectives on the issue in a short time. The group interaction may also help clarify and expand interesting contributions. One disadvantage is due to the moderator's personality and group effects , which may influence

21825-622: Is whether methodology just provides a value-neutral description of methods or what scientists actually do. Many methodologists practice their craft in a normative sense, meaning that they express clear opinions about the advantages and disadvantages of different methods. In this regard, methodology is not just about what researchers actually do but about what they ought to do or how to perform good research. Theorists often distinguish various general types or approaches to methodology. The most influential classification contrasts quantitative and qualitative methodology . Quantitative research

22050-458: The Abrahamic traditions , including ancient and medieval Christian demonology , a demon is considered a harmful spiritual entity, below the heavenly planes which may cause demonic possession , calling for an exorcism . In Western occultism and Renaissance magic , which grew out of an amalgamation of Greco-Roman magic , Jewish Aggadah and Christian demonology , a demon is believed to be

22275-552: The Quran was revealed by God to Muhammad word by word through the angel Gabriel ( Jibril ). In Hinduism , some Vedas are considered apauruṣeya , "not human compositions", and are supposed to have been directly revealed, and thus are called śruti , "what is heard". Aleister Crowley stated that The Book of the Law had been revealed to him through a higher being that called itself Aiwass . A revelation communicated by

22500-621: The Roman era as well as the Indian religions, have been the subject of recent scholarly research. Unity Church and its founder Charles Fillmore teaches reincarnation. In recent decades, many Europeans and North Americans have developed an interest in reincarnation, and many contemporary works mention it. Karma ( / ˈ k ɑːr m ə / ; Sanskrit : कर्म , romanized :  karma , IPA: [ˈkɐɽmɐ] ; Pali : kamma ) means action, work or deed; it also refers to

22725-613: The Tableau Economique , so that future production could be planned. Meanwhile, Anne Robert Jacques Turgot first articulated the law of diminishing returns . In 1793 the Chinese bureaucrat Hong Liangji forecasted future population growth . The Industrial Revolution was on the verge of spreading across the European continent, when in 1798 Thomas Malthus published An essay on the principle of Population as it affects

22950-489: The afterlife , or in exceptional cases enter heaven alive . Heaven is often described as a "higher place", the holiest place, a Paradise , in contrast to hell or the Underworld or the "low places" and universally or conditionally accessible by earthly beings according to various standards of divinity , goodness , piety , faith , or other virtues or right beliefs or simply the will of God . Some believe in

23175-547: The laws of nature . The term is derived from Medieval Latin supernaturalis , from Latin super- (above, beyond, or outside of) + natura (nature). Although the corollary term "nature" has had multiple meanings since the ancient world, the term "supernatural" emerged in the Middle Ages and did not exist in the ancient world. The supernatural is featured in folklore and religious contexts, but can also feature as an explanation in more secular contexts, as in

23400-503: The miraculous ones wrought by Christ and his apostles were supernatural . Nomological possibility is possibility under the actual laws of nature . Most philosophers since David Hume have held that the laws of nature are metaphysically contingent—that there could have been different natural laws than the ones that actually obtain. If so, then it would not be logically or metaphysically impossible, for example, for you to travel to Alpha Centauri in one day; it would just have to be

23625-433: The nature of a thing the essence , or that which the schoolmen scruple not to call the quiddity of a thing, namely, the attribute or attributes on whose score it is what it is, whether the thing be corporeal or not, as when we attempt to define the nature of an angle , or of a triangle , or of a fluid body, as such. Sometimes we take nature for an internal principle of motion , as when we say that

23850-416: The nominal group technique . They differ from each other concerning their sample size, the types of questions asked, and the general setting. In recent decades, many social scientists have started using mixed-methods research , which combines quantitative and qualitative methodologies. Many discussions in methodology concern the question of whether the quantitative approach is superior, especially whether it

24075-440: The palaeolithic period to the present provides an example. Megatrends are likely to produce greater change than any previous one, because technology is causing trends to unfold at an accelerating pace. The concept was popularized by the 1982 book Megatrends by futurist John Naisbitt . Possible new trends grow from innovations, projects, beliefs or actions and activism that have the potential to grow and eventually go mainstream in

24300-419: The quantitative approach , philosophical debates in methodology include the distinction between the inductive and the hypothetico-deductive interpretation of the scientific method. For qualitative research , many basic assumptions are tied to philosophical positions such as hermeneutics , pragmatism , Marxism , critical theory , and postmodernism . According to Kuhn, an important factor in such debates

24525-429: The skills , knowledge, and practical guidance needed to conduct scientific research in an efficient manner. It acts as a guideline for various decisions researchers need to take in the scientific process. Methodology can be understood as the middle ground between concrete particular methods and the abstract and general issues discussed by the philosophy of science . In this regard, methodology comes after formulating

24750-461: The 17th century prompted attempts to calculate statistical and probabilistic concepts. Objectivity became linked to knowledge that could be expressed in numerical data. In 18th century Britain, investors established mathematical formulas to assess the future value of an asset . In 1758 the French economist François Quesnay proceeded to establish a quantitative model of the entire economy, known as

24975-574: The 1990s and early 2000s is an example of the middle phases encountered before a technology can begin to be integrated into society. Education in the field of futures studies has taken place for some time. Beginning in the United States in the 1960s, it has since developed in many different countries. Futures education encourages the use of concepts, tools and processes that allow students to think long-term, consequentially, and imaginatively. It generally helps students to: Thorough documentation of

25200-488: The 1990s large technology foresight programs were launched which informed national and regional strategies on science, technology and innovation . Prior to the 1990s foresight was rarely used to describe future studies, futurology or forecasting . Foresight prognosis relied in part on the methodologies developed by the French pioneers of prospectives research, including Bertrand de Jouvenel . Foresight practitioners attempted to gather and evaluate evidence based insights for

25425-452: The 20th century. In Japan, futurists gained traction after World War I by denouncing the Meiji era and glorifying speed and technological progress. With the end of World War I interest in statistical forecasting intensified. In statistics, a forecast is a calculation of a future event's magnitude or probability . Forecasting calculates the future, while an estimate attempts to establish

25650-506: The 6th century, composed of the Latin prefix super- and nātūrālis (see nature ). The earliest known appearance of the word in the English language occurs in a Middle English translation of Catherine of Siena 's Dialogue ( orcherd of Syon , around 1425; Þei haue not þanne þe supernaturel lyȝt ne þe liȝt of kunnynge, bycause þei vndirstoden it not ). The semantic value of

25875-575: The Future Improvement of Society . Malthus questioned optimistic utopias and theories of progress . Malthus' fear about the survival of the human race is regarded as an early European dystopia . Starting in the 1830s, Auguste Comte developed theories of social evolution and claimed that metapatterns could be discerned in social change. In the 1870s Herbert Spencer blended Compte's theories with Charles Darwin 's biological evolution theory . Social Darwinism became popular in Europe and

26100-538: The Graduate Institute of Futures Studies is an MA Program. Only ten students are accepted annually in the program. Associated with the program is the Journal of Futures Studies . The longest running Future Studies program in North America was established in 1975 at the University of Houston–Clear Lake . It moved to the University of Houston in 2007 and renamed the degree to Foresight. The program

26325-576: The Interfuture group at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Club of Rome . The Club of Rome challenged the political status quo in 1972 with the report The Limits to Growth by putting computer simulations of economic growth alongside projections of population growth . The 1972 report The Limits to Growth established environmental degradation firmly on

26550-614: The Middle Ages, although in the early modern period Italian humanists reinterpreted the term in a positive sense to establish the idea of natural magic . Both negative and positive understandings of the term were retained in Western culture over the following centuries, with the former largely influencing early academic usages of the word. Throughout history, there have been examples of individuals who practiced magic and referred to themselves as magicians. This trend has proliferated in

26775-586: The STEEP categories of Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political. Third, futures studies challenges and unpacks the assumptions behind dominant and contending views of the future. The future thus is not empty but fraught with hidden assumptions. For example, many people expect the collapse of the Earth's ecosystem in the near future, while others believe the current ecosystem will survive indefinitely. A foresight approach would seek to analyze and highlight

27000-523: The USA. By the late 19th century, the belief in human progress and the triumph of scientific invention prevailed and science fiction became a popular future narrative. In 1888 William Morris published News from Nowhere , in which he theorized about how working time could be reduced. The British H. G. Wells established the genre of "true science fiction" at the turn of the century. Well's works were supposedly based on sound scientific knowledge. Wells became

27225-511: The academic field's most commonly used terms in the English-speaking world. Foresight was the original term and was first used in this sense by H. G. Wells in 1932. "Futurology" is a term common in encyclopedias, though it is used almost exclusively by nonpractitioners today, at least in the English-speaking world. "Futurology" is defined as the "study of the future". The term was coined by German professor Ossip K. Flechtheim in

27450-442: The advent of analytic philosophy . It studies concepts by breaking them down into their most fundamental constituents to clarify their meaning. Common sense philosophy uses common and widely accepted beliefs as a philosophical tool. They are used to draw interesting conclusions. This is often employed in a negative sense to discredit radical philosophical positions that go against common sense . Ordinary language philosophy has

27675-479: The assumptions underlying the theory that implied the impossibility be re-examined. Some philosophers, such as Sydney Shoemaker , have argued that the laws of nature are in fact necessary, not contingent; if so, then nomological possibility is equivalent to metaphysical possibility. The term supernatural is often used interchangeably with paranormal or preternatural —the latter typically limited to an adjective for describing abilities which appear to exceed what

27900-416: The assumptions underpinning such views. As a field, futures studies expands on the research component, by emphasizing the communication of a strategy and the actionable steps needed to implement the plan or plans leading to the preferable future. It is in this regard, that futures studies evolves from an academic exercise to a more traditional business-like practice, looking to better prepare organizations for

28125-456: The basis that a multitude of possible futures could be estimated, forecast, and manipulated. Futures studies was developed as an empirical research field. Inspired by Herman Kahn 's publications, future studies employed techniques such as scenario planning , game theory , and computer simulations . Historians, political scientists and sociologists who engaged in critical futures studies, such as Ossip K. Flechtheim , and Johan Galtung , laid

28350-425: The case that you could travel faster than the speed of light. But of course there is an important sense in which this is not nomologically possible; given that the laws of nature are what they are. In the philosophy of natural science , impossibility assertions come to be widely accepted as overwhelmingly probable rather than considered proved to the point of being unchallengeable. The basis for this strong acceptance

28575-512: The cases of superstitions or belief in the paranormal . The term is attributed to non-physical entities , such as angels , demons , gods and spirits . It also includes claimed abilities embodied in or provided by such beings, including magic , telekinesis , levitation , precognition and extrasensory perception . The supernatural is hypernymic to religion . Religions are standardized supernaturalist worldviews, or at least more complete than single supernaturalist views. Supernaturalism

28800-475: The choice of methodology may have a severe impact on a research project. The reason is that very different and sometimes even opposite conclusions may follow from the same factual material based on the chosen methodology. Aleksandr Georgievich Spirkin argues that methodology, when understood in a wide sense, is of great importance since the world presents us with innumerable entities and relations between them. Methods are needed to simplify this complexity and find

29025-722: The claim that researchers need freedom to do their work effectively. But this freedom may be constrained and stifled by "inflexible and inappropriate guidelines". For example, according to Kerry Chamberlain , a good interpretation needs creativity to be provocative and insightful, which is prohibited by a strictly codified approach. Chamberlain uses the neologism "methodolatry" to refer to this alleged overemphasis on methodology. Similar arguments are given in Paul Feyerabend 's book " Against Method ". However, these criticisms of methodology in general are not always accepted. Many methodologists defend their craft by pointing out how

29250-421: The collection of data and their analysis. Concerning the collection, it involves the problem of sampling and of how to go about the data collection itself, like surveys, interviews, or observation. There are also numerous methods of how the collected data can be analyzed using statistics or other ways of interpreting it to extract interesting conclusions. However, many theorists emphasize the differences between

29475-439: The concept of the soul of the deceased making its own journey to the underworld, with the dead needing to be taken across a defining obstacle such as a lake or a river to reach this destination. Imagery of such journeys can be found in both ancient and modern art. The descent to the underworld has been described as "the single most important myth for Modernist authors". A spirit is a supernatural being, often but not exclusively

29700-517: The confusion. On May 27, 2012, hundreds of people gathered for a "Take the Flour Back" demonstration at Rothamsted Research in Harpenden, UK, to oppose a publicly funded trial of genetically modified wheat. This was a weak signal for a broader shift in consumer sentiment against genetically modified foods. When Whole Foods mandated the labeling of GMOs in 2013, this non-GMO idea had already become

29925-408: The context of regular schools . But in its widest sense, it encompasses all forms of education, both inside and outside schools. In this wide sense, pedagogy is concerned with "any conscious activity by one person designed to enhance learning in another". The teaching happening this way is a process taking place between two parties: teachers and learners. Pedagogy investigates how the teacher can help

30150-469: The correlation between income and self-assessed well-being . Qualitative research is characterized in various ways in the academic literature but there are very few precise definitions of the term. It is often used in contrast to quantitative research for forms of study that do not quantify their subject matter numerically. However, the distinction between these two types is not always obvious and various theorists have argued that it should be understood as

30375-785: The course of the next year. Evidently, some of these predictions may come true as the year unfolds, though many fail. When predicted events fail to take place, the authors of the predictions may state that misinterpretation of the "signs" and portents may explain the failure of the prediction. Marketers have increasingly started to embrace futures studies, in an effort to benefit from an increasingly competitive marketplace with fast production cycles, using such techniques as trendspotting as popularized by Faith Popcorn . Trends come in different sizes. A megatrend extends over many generations, and in cases of climate, megatrends can cover periods prior to human existence. They describe complex interactions between many factors. The increase in population from

30600-522: The creatures cannot do, in traditional theism, in comparison to what they can do in process metaphysics (that is, to be part creators of the world with God). Heaven , or the heavens , is a common religious, cosmological , or transcendent place where beings such as gods , angels , spirits, saints , or venerated ancestors are said to originate, be enthroned , or live. According to the beliefs of some religions, heavenly beings can descend to Earth or incarnate , and earthly beings can ascend to heaven in

30825-447: The data at hand. It tries to summarize the most salient features and present them in insightful ways. This can happen, for example, by visualizing its distribution or by calculating indices such as the mean or the standard deviation . Inferential statistics, on the other hand, uses this data based on a sample to draw inferences about the population at large. That can take the form of making generalizations and predictions or by assessing

31050-500: The data collected does not reflect what the population as a whole is like. This affects generalizations and predictions drawn from the biased data. The number of individuals selected is called the sample size . For qualitative research, the sample size is usually rather small, while quantitative research tends to focus on big groups and collecting a lot of data. After the collection, the data needs to be analyzed and interpreted to arrive at interesting conclusions that pertain directly to

31275-460: The data is misinterpreted to defend conclusions that are not directly supported by the measurements themselves. In recent decades, many researchers in the social sciences have started combining both methodologies. This is known as mixed-methods research . A central motivation for this is that the two approaches can complement each other in various ways: some issues are ignored or too difficult to study with one methodology and are better approached with

31500-529: The discovery of new methods, like methodological skepticism and the phenomenological method , has had important impacts on the philosophical discourse. A great variety of methods has been employed throughout the history of philosophy. Methodological skepticism gives special importance to the role of systematic doubt. This way, philosophers try to discover absolutely certain first principles that are indubitable. The geometric method starts from such first principles and employs deductive reasoning to construct

31725-417: The distinction between the inductive and the hypothetico-deductive methodology . The core disagreement between these two approaches concerns their understanding of the confirmation of scientific theories. The inductive approach holds that a theory is confirmed or supported by all its positive instances, i.e. by all the observations that exemplify it. For example, the observations of many white swans confirm

31950-409: The early Church Fathers had done. As a result, he had created a dichotomy of sorts of the natural and supernatural. Though the phrase "supra naturam" was used since the 4th century AD, it was in the 1200s that Thomas Aquinas used the term "supernaturalis". Despite this, the term had to wait until the end of the medieval period before it became more popularly used. The discussions on "nature" from

32175-438: The economic and social changes the United States was experiencing. The authors identified the first wave as agricultural society , the second wave as industrial society and the nascent third wave as information society . In the 1970s, future studies focused less on Cold War scenarios and instead grappled on the impact of accelerated globalization . Pioneers of global future studies include Pierre Wack of Royal Dutch Shell ,

32400-426: The efficiency and reliability of research can be improved through a proper understanding of methodology. A criticism of more specific forms of methodology is found in the works of the sociologist Howard S. Becker . He is quite critical of methodologists based on the claim that they usually act as advocates of one particular method usually associated with quantitative research. An often-cited quotation in this regard

32625-454: The expected results based on one's hypothesis. The findings may then be interpreted and published, either as a confirmation or disconfirmation of the initial hypothesis. Two central aspects of the scientific method are observation and experimentation . This distinction is based on the idea that experimentation involves some form of manipulation or intervention. This way, the studied phenomena are actively created or shaped. For example,

32850-509: The field of mathematics , various methods can be distinguished, such as synthetic, analytic, deductive, inductive, and heuristic methods. For example, the difference between synthetic and analytic methods is that the former start from the known and proceed to the unknown while the latter seek to find a path from the unknown to the known. Geometry textbooks often proceed using the synthetic method. They start by listing known definitions and axioms and proceed by taking inferential steps , one at

33075-439: The field of research, for example, the goal of this process is to find reliable means to acquire knowledge in contrast to mere opinions acquired by unreliable means. In this regard, "methodology is a way of obtaining and building up ... knowledge". Various theorists have observed that the interest in methodology has risen significantly in the 20th century. This increased interest is reflected not just in academic publications on

33300-438: The field. Learning about medium and long-term developments may at times be observed from their early signs. As a rule, futures studies is generally concerned with changes of transformative impact, rather than those of an incremental or narrow scope. The futures field also excludes those who make future predictions through professed supernatural means. To complete a futures study, a domain is selected for examination. The domain

33525-468: The form of universal laws. Deductive methods, also referred to as axiomatic methods, are often found in formal sciences , such as geometry . They start from a set of self-evident axioms or first principles and use deduction to infer interesting conclusions from these axioms. Transcendental methods are common in Kantian and post-Kantian philosophy. They start with certain particular observations. It

33750-543: The foundations of peace and conflict studies as an academic discipline. The international academic dialogue on futures studies became institutionalized in the form of the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF), founded in 1967. The first doctoral program on the Study of the Future, was founded in 1969 at the University of Massachusetts by Christopher Dede and Billy Rojas. Dede also founded

33975-405: The future can be different. 1. Collapse Scenarios seek to answer: What happens if the STEEP baselines fall into ruin and no longer exist? How will that impact STEEP categories? 2. Transformation Scenarios: explore futures with the baseline of society transiting to a "new" state. How are the STEEP categories effected if society has a whole new structure? 3. New Equilibrium: examines an entire change to

34200-527: The future with some degree of accuracy. Sample predicted futures range from predicted ecological catastrophes , through a utopian future where the poorest human being lives in what present-day observers would regard as wealth and comfort, through the transformation of humanity into a posthuman life-form, to the destruction of all life on Earth in, say, a nanotechnological disaster . For reasons of convenience, futurists have often extrapolated present technical and societal trends and assumed they will develop at

34425-449: The future". There is no single set of methods that are appropriate for all futures research. Different futures researchers intentionally or unintentionally promote use of favored techniques over a more structured approach. Selection of methods for use on futures research projects has so far been dominated by the intuition and insight of practitioners; but can better identify a balanced selection of techniques via acknowledgement of foresight as

34650-462: The future. Futures studies does not generally focus on short term predictions such as interest rates over the next business cycle , or of managers or investors with short-term time horizons. Most strategic planning, which develops goals and objectives with time horizons of one to three years, is also not considered futures. Plans and strategies with longer time horizons that specifically attempt to anticipate possible future events are definitely part of

34875-654: The future. Very often, trends relate to one another the same way as a tree-trunk relates to branches and twigs. For example, a well-documented movement toward equality between men and women might represent a branch trend. The trend toward reducing differences in the salaries of men and women in the Western world could form a twig on that branch. Understanding the technology adoption cycle helps futurists monitor trend development. Trends start as weak signals by small mentions in fringe media outlets, discussion conversations or blog posts, often by innovators. As these ideas, projects, beliefs or technologies gain acceptance, they move into

35100-746: The future. Foresight research output focused on identifying challenges and opportunities, which was presented as intelligence at a strategic level. Practitioners tended to focus on particular companies or economic regions, while making no attempt to plan for specific problems. In the 1990s several future studies practitioners attempted to synthesize a coherent framework for the futures studies research field, including Wendell Bell 's two-volume work, The Foundations of Futures Studies , and Ziauddin Sardar 's Rescuing all of our Futures . Futures techniques or methodologies may be viewed as "frameworks for making sense of data generated by structured processes to think about

35325-402: The general principle behind their instances, and putting what one has learned into practice. Learning theories focus primarily on how learning takes place and formulate the proper methods of teaching based on these insights. One of them is apperception or association theory , which understands the mind primarily in terms of associations between ideas and experiences. On this view, the mind

35550-436: The goal and nature of research. These assumptions can at times play an important role concerning which method to choose and how to follow it. For example, Thomas Kuhn argues in his The Structure of Scientific Revolutions that sciences operate within a framework or a paradigm that determines which questions are asked and what counts as good science. This concerns philosophical disagreements both about how to conceptualize

35775-411: The group as a whole. Most of these forms of data collection involve some type of observation . Observation can take place either in a natural setting, i.e. the field , or in a controlled setting such as a laboratory. Controlled settings carry with them the risk of distorting the results due to their artificiality. Their advantage lies in precisely controlling the relevant factors, which can help make

36000-663: The history of futures education exists, for example in the work of Richard A. Slaughter (2004), David Hicks, Ivana Milojević to name a few. While futures studies remains a relatively new academic tradition, numerous tertiary institutions around the world teach it. These vary from small programs, or universities with just one or two classes, to programs that offer certificates and incorporate futures studies into other degrees, (for example in planning , business, environmental studies, economics, development studies, science and technology studies). Various formal Masters-level programs exist on six continents. Finally, doctoral dissertations around

36225-425: The idea of rebirth in many schools of Indian religions (particularly Hinduism , Buddhism , Jainism and Sikhism ) as well as Taoism . In these schools, karma in the present affects one's future in the current life, as well as the nature and quality of future lives – one's saṃsāra . In Catholic theology , the supernatural order is, according to New Advent , defined as "the ensemble of effects exceeding

36450-421: The interactions and responses of the participants. The interview often starts by asking the participants about their opinions on the topic under investigation, which may, in turn, lead to a free exchange in which the group members express and discuss their personal views. An important advantage of focus groups is that they can provide insight into how ideas and understanding operate in a cultural context. However, it

36675-465: The learner undergo experiences that promote their understanding of the subject matter in question. Various influential pedagogical theories have been proposed. Mental-discipline theories were already common in ancient Greek and state that the main goal of teaching is to train intellectual capacities. They are usually based on a certain ideal of the capacities, attitudes, and values possessed by educated people. According to naturalistic theories, there

36900-671: The majority of denominations within Christianity and Islam do not believe that individuals reincarnate, particular groups within these religions do refer to reincarnation; these groups include the mainstream historical and contemporary followers of Cathars , Alawites , the Druze and the Rosicrucians . The historical relations between these sects and the beliefs about reincarnation that were characteristic of Neoplatonism , Orphism , Hermeticism , Manicheanism and Gnosticism of

37125-429: The many enter into complex unity" (Whitehead 1978, 21). It is tempting to emphasize process theism's denial of the supernatural and thereby highlight that the processed God cannot do in comparison what the traditional God could do (that is, to bring something from nothing). In fairness, however, equal stress should be placed on process theism's denial of the natural (as traditionally conceived) so that one may highlight what

37350-418: The measurements to the expected results, and to publish the findings. Qualitative research is more characteristic of the social sciences and gives less prominence to exact numerical measurements. It aims more at an in-depth understanding of the meaning of the studied phenomena and less at universal and predictive laws. Common methods found in the social sciences are surveys , interviews , focus groups , and

37575-424: The methods instead of researching them. This ambiguous attitude towards methodology is sometimes even exemplified in the same person. Max Weber , for example, criticized the focus on methodology during his time while making significant contributions to it himself. Spirkin believes that one important reason for this development is that contemporary society faces many global problems. These problems cannot be solved by

37800-468: The mid-1940s, who proposed it as a new branch of knowledge that would include a new science of probability . This term has fallen from favor in recent decades because modern practitioners stress the importance of alternative, plausible, preferable and plural futures, rather than one monolithic future, and the limitations of prediction and probability, versus the creation of possible and preferable futures. Three factors usually distinguish futures studies from

38025-521: The modern period, with a growing number of magicians appearing within the esoteric milieu. British esotericist Aleister Crowley described magic as the art of effecting change in accordance with will. Divination (from Latin divinare "to foresee, to be inspired by a god", related to divinus , divine ) is the attempt to gain insight into a question or situation by way of an occultic , standardized process or ritual. Used in various forms throughout history, diviners ascertain their interpretations of how

38250-472: The most often cited examples of a wild card event in recent history is 9/11. Nothing had happened in the past that could point to such a possibility and yet it had a huge impact on everyday life in the United States, from simple tasks like how to travel via airplane to deeper cultural values. Wild card events might also be natural disasters, such as Hurricane Katrina , which can force the relocation of huge populations and wipe out entire crops or completely disrupt

38475-467: The natural sciences do. Positivists agree with this characterization, in contrast to interpretive and critical perspectives on the social sciences. According to William Neumann, positivism can be defined as "an organized method for combining deductive logic with precise empirical observations of individual behavior in order to discover and confirm a set of probabilistic causal laws that can be used to predict general patterns of human activity". This view

38700-517: The number of fields to which it is relevant. They include the natural sciences and the social sciences as well as philosophy and mathematics. The dominant methodology in the natural sciences (like astronomy , biology , chemistry , geoscience , and physics ) is called the scientific method . Its main cognitive aim is usually seen as the creation of knowledge , but various closely related aims have also been proposed, like understanding, explanation, or predictive success. Strictly speaking, there

38925-450: The observations more reliable and repeatable. Non-participatory observation involves a distanced or external approach. In this case, the researcher focuses on describing and recording the observed phenomena without causing or changing them, in contrast to participatory observation . An important methodological debate in the field of social sciences concerns the question of whether they deal with hard, objective, and value-neutral facts, as

39150-402: The opinions stated by the participants. When applied to cross-cultural settings, cultural and linguistic adaptations and group composition considerations are important to encourage greater participation in the group discussion. The nominal group technique is similar to focus groups with a few important differences. The group often consists of experts in the field in question. The group size

39375-586: The other approaches are mere distortions or surface illusions. It seeks to uncover deeper structures of the material world hidden behind these distortions. This approach is often guided by the goal of helping people effect social changes and improvements. Philosophical methodology is the metaphilosophical field of inquiry studying the methods used in philosophy . These methods structure how philosophers conduct their research, acquire knowledge, and select between competing theories. It concerns both descriptive issues of what methods have been used by philosophers in

39600-425: The other hand, are based on a variety of studies and try to arrive at more general principles applying to different fields. They may also give particular prominence to the analysis of the language of science and the formal structure of scientific explanation. A closely related classification distinguishes between philosophical, general scientific, and special scientific methods. One type of methodological outlook

39825-444: The other hand, can be used to study complex individual issues, often with the goal of formulating new hypotheses. This is especially relevant when the existing knowledge of the subject is inadequate. Important advantages of quantitative methods include precision and reliability. However, they have often difficulties in studying very complex phenomena that are commonly of interest to the social sciences. Additional problems can arise when

40050-453: The other. In other cases, both approaches are applied to the same issue to produce more comprehensive and well-rounded results. Qualitative and quantitative research are often associated with different research paradigms and background assumptions. Qualitative researchers often use an interpretive or critical approach while quantitative researchers tend to prefer a positivistic approach. Important disagreements between these approaches concern

40275-478: The outcomes two distinct cognitive domains: one concerned with the physical-mechanical relations and another with social relations. Studies on indigenous groups have allowed for insights on how such coexistence of explanations may function. A deity ( / ˈ d iː ə t i / or / ˈ d eɪ . ə t i / ) is a supernatural being considered divine or sacred . The Oxford Dictionary of English defines deity as "a god or goddess (in

40500-419: The participants since the answers might not have much value otherwise. Surveys normally restrict themselves to closed questions in order to avoid various problems that come with the interpretation of answers to open questions . They contrast in this regard to interviews, which put more emphasis on the individual participant and often involve open questions. Structured interviews are planned in advance and have

40725-569: The past and normative issues of which methods should be used. Many philosophers emphasize that these methods differ significantly from the methods found in the natural sciences in that they usually do not rely on experimental data obtained through measuring equipment . Which method one follows can have wide implications for how philosophical theories are constructed, what theses are defended, and what arguments are cited in favor or against. In this regard, many philosophical disagreements have their source in methodological disagreements. Historically,

40950-509: The phase of early adopters. In the beginning of a trend's development, it is difficult to tell if it will become a significant trend that creates changes or merely a trendy fad that fades into forgotten history. Trends will emerge as initially unconnected dots but eventually coalesce into persistent change. Some trends emerge when enough confirmation occurs in the various media, surveys or questionnaires to show that it has an increasingly accepted value, behavior or technology, it becomes accepted as

41175-413: The phenomena in a new light. In this regard, a methodology is similar to a paradigm. A similar view is defended by Spirkin, who holds that a central aspect of every methodology is the world view that comes with it. The discussion of background assumptions can include metaphysical and ontological issues in cases where they have important implications for the proper research methodology. For example,

41400-535: The phenomena it claims to study. In the latter sense, some methodologists have even claimed that the goal of science is less to represent a pre-existing reality and more to bring about some kind of social change in favor of repressed groups in society. Viknesh Andiappan and Yoke Kin Wan use the field of process systems engineering to distinguish the term "methodology" from the closely related terms "approach", "method", "procedure", and "technique". On their view, "approach"

41625-399: The phenomena studied, what constitutes evidence for and against them, and what the general goal of researching them is. So in this wider sense, methodology overlaps with philosophy by making these assumptions explicit and presenting arguments for and against them. According to C. S. Herrman, a good methodology clarifies the structure of the data to be analyzed and helps the researchers see

41850-463: The political agenda. The environmental movement demanded of industry and policymakers to consider long-term implications when planning and investing in power plants and infrastructure. The 1990s saw a surge in futures studies in preparation for the United Nations' Millennium Development Goals , which were adopted in 2000 as international development goals for the year 2015. Throughout

42075-493: The possibility of a heaven on Earth in a world to come . Another belief is in an axis mundi or world tree which connects the heavens, the terrestrial world and the underworld . In Indian religions , heaven is considered as Svarga loka , and the soul is again subjected to rebirth in different living forms according to its karma . This cycle can be broken after a soul achieves Moksha or Nirvana . Any place of existence, either of humans, souls or deities, outside

42300-404: The powers of the created universe and gratuitously produced by God for the purpose of raising the rational creature above its native sphere to a God-like life and destiny." The Modern Catholic Dictionary defines it as "the sum total of heavenly destiny and all the divinely established means of reaching that destiny, which surpass the mere powers and capacities of human nature." Process theology

42525-424: The probability of a concrete hypothesis. Pedagogy can be defined as the study or science of teaching methods . In this regard, it is the methodology of education : it investigates the methods and practices that can be applied to fulfill the aims of education . These aims include the transmission of knowledge as well as fostering skills and character traits . Its main focus is on teaching methods in

42750-432: The problem of conducting efficient and reliable research as well as being able to validate knowledge claims by others. Method is often seen as one of the main factors of scientific progress . This is especially true for the natural sciences where the developments of experimental methods in the 16th and 17th century are often seen as the driving force behind the success and prominence of the natural sciences. In some cases,

42975-436: The prophet's social world and events to come (compare divine knowledge ). Prophecy is not limited to any one culture. It is a common property to all known ancient societies around the world, some more than others. Many systems and rules about prophecy have been proposed over several millennia. In religion and theology , revelation is the revealing or disclosing of some form of truth or knowledge through communication with

43200-430: The purposes of data collection. Some researcher employ the go-along method by conducting interviews while they and the participants navigate through and engage with their environment. Focus groups are a qualitative research method often used in market research . They constitute a form of group interview involving a small number of demographically similar people. Researchers can use this method to collect data based on

43425-485: The reasons cited for and against them. In this regard, it may be argued that what matters is the correct employment of methods and not their meticulous study. Sigmund Freud , for example, compared methodologists to "people who clean their glasses so thoroughly that they never have time to look through them". According to C. Wright Mills , the practice of methodology often degenerates into a "fetishism of method and technique". Some even hold that methodological reflection

43650-488: The recipient. In the Abrahamic religions , the term is used to refer to the process by which God reveals knowledge of himself, his will and his divine providence to the world of human beings. In secondary usage, revelation refers to the resulting human knowledge about God, prophecy and other divine things. Revelation from a supernatural source plays a less important role in some other religious traditions such as Buddhism , Confucianism and Taoism . Reincarnation

43875-434: The research conducted by other disciplines (although all of these disciplines overlap, to differing degrees). First, futures studies often examines trends to compose possible, probable, and preferable futures along with the role "wild cards" can play on future scenarios. Second, futures studies typically attempts to gain a holistic or systemic view based on insights from a range of different disciplines, generally focusing on

44100-443: The research question. This way, the wealth of information obtained is summarized and thus made more accessible to others. Especially in the case of quantitative research, this often involves the application of some form of statistics to make sense of the numerous individual measurements. Many discussions in the history of methodology center around the quantitative methods used by the natural sciences. A central question in this regard

44325-455: The responses of the different participants and to draw general conclusions. However, they also limit what may be discovered and thus constrain the investigation in many ways. Depending on the type and depth of the interview, this method belongs either to quantitative or to qualitative research. The terms research conversation and muddy interview have been used to describe interviews conducted in informal settings which may not occur purely for

44550-481: The role of objectivity and hard empirical data as well as the research goal of predictive success rather than in-depth understanding or social change. Various other classifications have been proposed. One distinguishes between substantive and formal methodologies. Substantive methodologies tend to focus on one specific area of inquiry. The findings are initially restricted to this specific field but may be transferrable to other areas of inquiry. Formal methodologies, on

44775-560: The same divine principle; and nontheistic religions deny any supreme eternal creator deity but accept a pantheon of deities which live, die and are reborn just like any other being. Various cultures have conceptualized a deity differently than a monotheistic God . A deity need not be omnipotent , omnipresent , omniscient , omnibenevolent or eternal , The monotheistic God, however, does have these attributes . Monotheistic religions typically refer to God in masculine terms, while other religions refer to their deities in

45000-706: The same factual material can lead to different conclusions depending on one's method. Interest in methodology has risen in the 20th century due to the increased importance of interdisciplinary work and the obstacles hindering efficient cooperation. The term "methodology" is associated with a variety of meanings. In its most common usage, it refers either to a method, to the field of inquiry studying methods, or to philosophical discussions of background assumptions involved in these processes. Some researchers distinguish methods from methodologies by holding that methods are modes of data collection while methodologies are more general research strategies that determine how to conduct

45225-714: The same rate into the future; but technical progress and social upheavals, in reality, take place in fits and starts and in different areas at different rates. Therefore, to some degree, the field has aimed to move away from prediction. Current futurists often present multiple scenarios that help their audience envision what "may" occur instead of "predicting the future". They claim that understanding potential scenarios helps individuals and organizations prepare with flexibility. Many corporations use futurists as part of their risk management strategy, for horizon scanning and emerging issues analysis, and to identify wild cards —low probability, potentially high-impact risks. Understanding

45450-435: The scholastic period were diverse and unsettled with some postulating that even miracles are natural and that natural magic was a natural part of the world. The metaphysical considerations of the existence of the supernatural can be difficult to approach as an exercise in philosophy or theology because any dependencies on its antithesis, the natural , will ultimately have to be inverted or rejected. One complicating factor

45675-584: The sense that the same proof may be presented either way. Statistics investigates the analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data . It plays a central role in many forms of quantitative research that have to deal with the data of many observations and measurements. In such cases, data analysis is used to cleanse , transform , and model the data to arrive at practically useful conclusions. There are numerous methods of data analysis. They are usually divided into descriptive statistics and inferential statistics . Descriptive statistics restricts itself to

45900-641: The seven meters estimated rise. This concept may be embedded in standard foresight projects and introduced into anticipatory decision-making activity in order to increase the ability of social groups adapt to surprises arising in turbulent business environments. Such sudden and unique incidents might constitute turning points in the evolution of a certain trend or system. Wild cards may or may not be announced by weak signals, which are incomplete and fragmented data from which relevant foresight information might be inferred. Sometimes, mistakenly, wild cards and weak signals are considered as synonyms, which they are not. One of

46125-406: The spiritual principle of cause and effect where intent and actions of an individual (cause) influence the future of that individual (effect). Good intent and good deeds contribute to good karma and future happiness, while bad intent and bad deeds contribute to bad karma and future suffering. With origins in ancient India 's Vedic civilization , the philosophy of karma is closely associated with

46350-444: The structure of the domain. What happens if the baseline changes to a "new" baseline within the same structure of society? Johan Galtung and Sohail Inayatullah argue that the search for grand patterns goes all the way back to Sima Qian (145–90 BC) and Ibn Khaldun (1332–1406). Early western examples include Sir Thomas More 's Utopia (1516) in which a future society has overcome poverty and misery. Advances in mathematics in

46575-433: The study of emerging issues, such as megatrends , trends and weak signals . Megatrends illustrate major, long-term phenomena that change slowly, are often interlinked and cannot be transformed in an instant. Trends express an increase or a decrease in a phenomenon, and there are many ways to spot trends. Some argue that a trend persists long-term and long-range; affects many societal groups; grows slowly; and appears to have

46800-692: The study of the future as an academic discipline gradually gained ground, and parallel to this development, corporations and governments began employing people trained in this field. This resulted in, for example, the Association of Professional Futurists being formed in 2002, developing a Foresight Competency Model in 2017, and it is now possible to study it academically, for example at the FU Berlin in their master's course. To encourage inclusive and cross-disciplinary discussions about futures studies, UNESCO declared December 2 as World Futures Day. Futurology

47025-424: The subject but also in the institutionalized establishment of training programs focusing specifically on methodology. This phenomenon can be interpreted in different ways. Some see it as a positive indication of the topic's theoretical and practical importance. Others interpret this interest in methodology as an excessive preoccupation that draws time and energy away from doing research on concrete subjects by applying

47250-578: The supply chain of many businesses. Although wild card events cannot be predicted, after they occur it is often easy to reflect back and convincingly explain why they happened. A long-running tradition in various cultures, and especially in the media, involves various spokespersons making predictions for the upcoming year at the beginning of the year. These predictions are thought-provokers, which sometimes base themselves on current trends in culture (music, movies, fashion, politics); sometimes they make hopeful guesses as to what major events might take place over

47475-475: The tangible world (Heaven, Hell, or other) is referred to as otherworld . The underworld is the supernatural world of the dead in various religious traditions, located below the world of the living. Chthonic is the technical adjective for things of the underworld. The concept of an underworld is found in almost every civilization and "may be as old as humanity itself". Common features of underworld myths are accounts of living people making journeys to

47700-1135: The temple of every living being's body, as sensory organs and mind. Deities have also been envisioned as a form of existence ( Saṃsāra ) after rebirth , for human beings who gain merit through an ethical life, where they become guardian deities and live blissfully in heaven , but are also subject to death when their merit runs out. An angel is generally a supernatural being found in various religions and mythologies . In Abrahamic religions and Zoroastrianism , angels are often depicted as benevolent celestial beings who act as intermediaries between God or Heaven and Earth . Other roles of angels include protecting and guiding human beings and carrying out God's tasks. Within Abrahamic religions, angels are often organized into hierarchies , although such rankings may vary between sects in each religion, and are given specific names or titles, such as Gabriel or " Destroying angel ." The term "angel" has also been expanded to various notions of spirits or figures found in other religious traditions. The theological study of angels

47925-410: The term "framework" is used as a synonym. A method is a still more specific way of practically implementing the approach. Methodologies provide the guidelines that help researchers decide which method to follow. The method itself may be understood as a sequence of techniques. A technique is a step taken that can be observed and measured. Each technique has some immediate result. The whole sequence of steps

48150-423: The term has shifted over the history of its use. Originally the term referred exclusively to Christian understandings of the world. For example, as an adjective, the term can mean "belonging to a realm or system that transcends nature, as that of divine, magical, or ghostly beings; attributed to or thought to reveal some force beyond scientific understanding or the laws of nature; occult, paranormal" or "more than what

48375-677: The terms "method" and "methodology". In this regard, methodology may be defined as "the study or description of methods" or as "the analysis of the principles of methods, rules, and postulates employed by a discipline". This study or analysis involves uncovering assumptions and practices associated with the different methods and a detailed description of research designs and hypothesis testing . It also includes evaluative aspects: forms of data collection, measurement strategies, and ways to analyze data are compared and their advantages and disadvantages relative to different research goals and situations are assessed. In this regard, methodology provides

48600-460: The third century AD influenced the development of the concept of the supernatural, which later evolved through Christian theology . The term nature had existed since antiquity, with Latin authors like Augustine using the word and its cognates at least 600 times in City of God . In the medieval period, "nature" had ten different meanings and "natural" had eleven different meanings. Peter Lombard ,

48825-448: The underworld , often for some heroic purpose. Other myths reinforce traditions that entrance of souls to the underworld requires a proper observation of ceremony, such as the ancient Greek story of the recently dead Patroclus haunting Achilles until his body could be properly buried for this purpose. Persons having social status were dressed and equipped in order to better navigate the underworld. A number of mythologies incorporate

49050-411: The universal hypothesis that "all swans are white". The hypothetico-deductive approach, on the other hand, focuses not on positive instances but on deductive consequences of the theory. This way, the researcher uses deduction before conducting an experiment to infer what observations they expect. These expectations are then compared to the observations they actually make. This approach often takes

49275-449: The value of an existing quantity . In the United States, President Hoover established a Research Committee on Social Trends in 1929 headed by William F. Ogburn . Past statistics were used to chart trends and project those trends into the future. Planning became part of the political decision-making process after World War II as capitalist and communist governments across the globe produced predictive forecasts. The RAND Corporation

49500-425: The world have incorporated futures studies (see e.g. Rohrbeck, 2010; von der Gracht, 2008; Hines, 2012). A recent survey documented approximately 50 cases of futures studies at the tertiary level. A Futures Studies program is offered at Tamkang University , Taiwan. Futures Studies is a required course at the undergraduate level, with between three and five thousand students taking classes on an annual basis. Housed in

49725-500: The world were delivering one or more courses in futures studies. The World Futures Studies Federation has a comprehensive survey of global futures programs and courses. The Acceleration Studies Foundation maintains an annotated list of primary and secondary graduate futures studies programs. A MA Program in Futures Studies has been offered at Free University of Berlin since 2010. A MSocSc and PhD program in Futures Studies

49950-459: Was accepted and thought unlikely to happen) to Type II (high probability, high impact, but low credibility as policy makers and lobbyists push back against the science), to Type III (high probability, high impact, disputed credibility) — at least for most people: There are still some who probably will not accept the science until the Greenland ice sheet has completely melted and sea-level has risen

50175-436: Was established on the belief that if history is studied and taught in an academic setting, then so should the future. Its mission is to prepare professional futurists. The curriculum incorporates a blend of the essential theory, a framework and methods for doing the work, and a focus on application for clients in business, government, nonprofits, and society in general. As of 2003, over 40 tertiary education establishments around

50400-462: Was founded in 1945 to assist the US military with post-war planning. The long-term planning of military and industrial Cold War efforts peaked in the 1960s when peace research emerged as a counter-movement and the positivist idea of "the one predictable future" was called into question. In 1954 Robert Jungk published a critique of the US and the supposed colonization of the future in Tomorrow

50625-409: Was used with negative connotations, to apply to religious rites that were regarded as fraudulent, unconventional and dangerous. This meaning of the term was then adopted by Latin in the first century BC. The concept was then incorporated into Christian theology during the first century AD, where magic was associated with demons and thus defined against religion. This concept was pervasive throughout

#219780