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Human population projections

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Human population projections are attempts to extrapolate how human populations will change in the future. These projections are an important input to forecasts of the population's impact on this planet and humanity's future well-being. Models of population growth take trends in human development and apply projections into the future. These models use trend-based-assumptions about how populations will respond to economic, social and technological forces to understand how they will affect fertility and mortality , and thus population growth .

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75-575: The 2022 projections from the United Nations Population Division (chart #1) show that annual world population growth peaked at 2.3% per year in 1963, has since dropped to 0.9% in 2023, equivalent to about 74 million people each year, and could drop even further to minus 0.1% by 2100. Based on this, the UN projected that the world population, 8 billion as of 2023, would peak around the year 2086 at about 10.4 billion, and then start

150-610: A growth rate of 2.6% p.a. Source: Maddison and others. (University of Groningen). Source: Maddison and others (University of Groningen) and others. Registration of vital events in most of Africa is incomplete. The website Our World in Data prepared the following estimates based on statistics from the Population Department of the United Nations . The Sahara Desert , covering most of North Africa , and

225-675: A 2013 special report issued by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), the number of HIV positive people in Africa receiving anti-retroviral treatment in 2012 was over seven times the number receiving treatment in 2005, with an almost 1 million added in the last year alone. The number of AIDS-related deaths in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2011 was 33 percent less than the number in 2005. The number of new HIV infections in sub-Saharan Africa in 2011

300-546: A United States population estimate as an example of an exponential equation . After stating that the 1820 population of the United States was 9,625,000, the projected 2020 population would be 2,464,000,000 (supposing it to double once every 25 years). Walter Greiling projected in the 1950s that world population would reach a peak of about nine billion in the 21st century and then stop growing after an improvement in public health in less developed countries . In 1992,

375-488: A foundation the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the 17 Sustainable Development Goals ( SDGs ) as adopted by the UN General Assembly on 25 September 2015. In providing a broad range of analytical products, policy advice, and technical assistance, UN DESA effectively translates global commitments in the economic, social and environmental spheres into national policies and actions and continues to play

450-793: A growth rate at that time of -0.1%. This projected growth of population, like all others, depends on assumptions about vital rates. For example, the chart below shows that the UN Population Division assumes that Total fertility rate (TFR), which has been steadily declining since 1963, will continue to decline, at varying paces depending on circumstances in individual regions, to a below-replacement level of 1.8 by 2100. Between now (2020) and 2100, regions with TFR currently below this rate, for example Europe, will see TFR rise. Regions with TFR above this rate will see TFR continue to decline. Other organizations have published different forecasts. Other assumptions can produce other results. Some of

525-464: A hundred linguistic varieties) are spoken by 75 percent, and fifteen by 85 percent, of Africans as a first or additional language. Niger–Congo is the largest phylum of African languages, with more than 500 million speakers (2017); it is dominated by the Bantu branch, spread throughout sub-Saharan Africa in the Bantu expansion , Bantu speakers accounting for about half of Niger–Congo speakers. Arabic

600-625: A key role in monitoring progress towards internationally agreed-upon development goals. It is also a member of the United Nations Development Group . Since 2007, leadership positions in UN DESA have been held by representatives from the People's Republic of China . UN DESA has been used to promote China's Belt and Road Initiative . Demographics of Africa The population of Africa has grown rapidly over

675-520: A minority in many African states, particularly South Africa , Zimbabwe , Namibia and Réunion . South Africa has the largest population of white people in Africa. The Boers or Afrikaners , the British diaspora and the Coloureds ( multiracial ) are the largest European-descended groups in Africa today. European colonization also brought sizable groups of Asians , particularly people from

750-455: A more rapid drop in Africa's birth rate than previous projections had expected. For example, the 2012 report predicted that the population of Nigeria, Africa's most populous country, would rise to 914 million by 2100; the 2022 report lowers that to 546 million, a reduction of 368 million; the 2024 report lowered that further to 477 million, a reduction of 69 million. Jose Rimon of Johns Hopkins University suggested, "We have been underestimating what

825-452: A negative natural increase (births minus deaths). This section describes near-term population changes, up to the year 2050, and long-term population changes, out to the year 2100. The median scenario of the UN's 2022 World Population Prospects predicts the following populations by region in 2050 compared to population in 2000 and shows the differing growth rates for each over the first half of this century. Projections of population beyond

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900-485: A net outflow of similar proportions. The largest migratory outflows have been in response to demand for workers in other countries (Bangladesh, Nepal, and the Philippines) or to insecurity in the home country (Myanmar, Syria, and Venezuela). Belarus, Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Russia, Serbia, and Ukraine have experienced a net inflow of migrants over the decade, helping to offset population losses caused by

975-407: A period of global population decline. The UN Population Division has calculated the future population of the world's countries, based on current demographic trends. The UN's 2024 report projects world population to be 8.1 billion in 2024, about 9.6 billion in 2050, and about 10.2 billion in 2100. The following table shows the largest 15 countries by population as of 2024, 2050 and 2100 to show how

1050-723: A result of these critiques, the Initiative later transformed to address the increase of accessibility of health services, the enhancement of quality of health services, and the overall improvement of health system management. A comprehensive approach strategy was extended to all areas of health care, with subsequent improvement in the health care indicators and improvement in health care efficiency and cost. The Eastern African , Central African , Western African and Southern African regions experience disproportionate rates of infectious and chronic diseases in comparison to other global regions. Type 2 diabetes persists as an epidemic in

1125-564: A slow decline, assuming a continuing decrease in the global average fertility rate from 2.5 births per woman during the 2015–2020 period to 1.8 by the year 2100 (the medium-variant projection). The UN’s 2024 report has revised the peak population to 10.3 billion in the year 2084. However, estimates outside of the United Nations have put forward alternative models based on additional downward pressure on fertility (such as successful implementation of education and family planning goals in

1200-433: A very limited use of contraceptives . Further factors generally associated with decreased fertility include wealth, education, and female labor participation . Uncontrolled population growth threatens to overwhelm infrastructure development and to cripple economic development. Kenya and Zambia are pursuing programs to promote family planning in an attempt to curb growth rates. The extreme population growth in Africa

1275-409: Is also a factor, as child mortality rates are higher in rural areas in comparison to urban regions. Routine immunization has been introduced to countries within Sub-Saharan Africa in order to prevent measles outbreaks within the region. Neglected tropical diseases such as hookworm infection encompass some of the most common health conditions which affect an estimated 500 million individuals in

1350-616: Is driven by East Africa , Middle Africa and West Africa , which regions are projected to more than quintuple their populations over the 21st century. The most extreme of these is Middle Africa, with an estimated population increase by 681%, from less than 100 million in 2000 to more than 750 million in 2100 (almost half of this figure is driven by the Democratic Republic of the Congo , projected to increase from 47 million in 2000 to 362 million in 2100). Projected population growth

1425-475: Is explosive, with a population under the age of 14 in the exponential growth phase, a difference from almost the rest of the world, which is already in balance ( United States 1966, Europe 1969, Mexico 1990, Latin America 2000, India 2009, Asia 1977). As of 2019, the total population of Africa is estimated at 1.3 billion, representing 16 percent of the world's population. According to UN estimates,

1500-498: Is happening in terms of fertility change in Africa. Africa will probably undergo the same kind of rapid changes as east Asia did." The population of a country or area grows or declines through the interaction of three demographic drivers: fertility, mortality, and migration. Fertility is expressed as the total fertility rate (TFR), a measure of the number of children on average that a woman will bear in her lifetime. With longevity trending towards uniform and stable values worldwide,

1575-579: Is less extreme in Southern Africa and North Africa , which are expected, respectively, to not quite double and triple their populations over the same period. Population estimates by region (in billions): All but two countries in Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2023 and accounted for 27.1% of global livebirths. In September 1987, UNICEF and the World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Committee announced

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1650-826: Is part of the United Nations Secretariat and is responsible for the follow-up to major United Nations Summits and Conferences, as well as services to the United Nations Economic and Social Council and the Second and Third Committees of the United Nations General Assembly . UN DESA assists countries around the world in agenda-setting and decision-making with the goal of meeting their economic, social and environmental challenges. It supports international cooperation to promote sustainable development for all, having as

1725-438: Is projected to decline further to 2.2 in 2045–2050 and to 1.8 in 2095–2100. If the mortality rate is relatively high and the resulting life expectancy is therefore relatively low, changes in mortality can have a material impact on population growth. When the mortality rate is low and life expectancy has therefore risen, a change in mortality has much less of an effect. Because child mortality has declined substantially over

1800-514: Is projected to take place in Africa . Of the additional 1.9 billion people projected between 2020 and 2050, 1.2 billion will be added in Africa, 0.7 billion in Asia and zero in the rest of the world. Africa's share of global population is projected to grow from 17% in 2020 to 25% in 2050 and 38% by 2100, while the share of Asia will fall from 60% in 2020 to 55% in 2050 and 45% in 2100. The strong growth of

1875-404: Is the most widely spoken single language in Africa by far, with a population of Arab Africa of the order of 330 million (2017). Other Afroasiatic languages are spoken by of the order of 100 million speakers in Africa (2017). Nilo-Saharan are spoken by of the order of 100 million speakers (2017). Khoisan groups a number of mostly endangered click languages , the largest being Khoekhoe with of

1950-512: Is variously estimated (depending on the delineation of language vs. dialect ) at between 1,250 and 2,100, and by some counts at "over 3,000", Nigeria alone has over 500 languages (according to the count of SIL Ethnologue ), Around a hundred languages are widely used for inter-ethnic communication. Arabic , Somali , Berber , Amharic , Oromo , Igbo , Swahili , Hausa , Manding , Fulani and Yoruba are spoken by tens of millions of people. Twelve dialect clusters (which may group up to

2025-580: The African Union ratified the Maputo Protocol in July 2003, which pledges to prohibit female genital mutilation . The Sub-Saharan African region alone accounts for about 45% of global infant and child mortalities . Studies have shown a relationship between infant survival and the education of mothers, as years of education positively correlate with infant survival rates. Geographic location

2100-843: The Indian subcontinent , to British colonies. Large Indian communities are found in South Africa, and smaller ones are present in Kenya, Tanzania, and some other southern and East African countries. The large Indian community in Uganda was expelled by the dictator Idi Amin in 1972, though many have since returned. The islands in the Indian Ocean are also populated primarily by people of Asian origin, often mixed with Africans and Europeans. The Malagasy people of Madagascar are Austronesian people and native African people, but those along

2175-1114: The Kalahari Desert of Namibia and Botswana ; There are several other small families and language isolates , as well as languages that have yet to be classified . In addition, the Afroasiatic languages are spread throughout Western Asia , North Africa , the Horn of Africa and parts of the Sahel . The Afroasiatic homeland may be either in Western Asia or in Africa. More recently introduced to Africa are Austronesian languages spoken in Madagascar , as well as Indo-European languages spoken in South Africa and Namibia ( Afrikaans , English , German ), which were used as lingua francas in former European colonies . The total number of languages natively spoken in Africa

2250-601: The Khoikhoi , they form the Khoisan . The San are the pre-Bantu indigenous people of southern Africa, while Pygmies are the pre-Bantu indigenous African peoples of Central Africa. The peoples of West Africa primarily speak Niger–Congo languages belonging mostly, though not exclusively, to its non- Bantu branches, though some Nilo-Saharan and Afroasiatic -speaking groups are also found. The Niger–Congo-speaking Yoruba , Igbo , Fulani , Akan and Wolof ethnic groups are

2325-651: The Oromo and Somali speak languages from the Cushitic branch of Afro-Asiatic. In southern Ethiopia and Eritrea, Nilotic peoples related to those in South Sudan are also found, while Bantu and Khoisan ethnic minorities inhabit parts of southern Somalia near the Kenyan border. Prior to the decolonization movements of the post- World War II era, Europeans were represented in every part of Africa. Decolonisation during

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2400-472: The UN's Sustainable Development Goals ) which could result in peak population during the 2060–2070 period rather than later. According to the UN, all of the predicted growth in world population between 2020 and 2050 will come from less developed countries and more than half will come from sub-Saharan Africa . Half of the growth will come from just eight countries, five of which are in Africa. The UN predicts that

2475-472: The United Nations Population Division projected that world population would peak at 9.2 billion in 2075 and then stabilize at a value close to 9 billion out to as far as the year 2300. Jørgen Randers , one of the authors of the seminal 1972 long-term simulations in The Limits to Growth , offered an alternative scenario in a 2012 book, arguing that traditional projections insufficiently take into account

2550-688: The 101 largest cities; these cities are home to 11% of the world's population. By the end of the century, the world population is projected to grow, with estimates ranging from 6.9 billion to 13.1 billion; the percentage of people living in the 101 largest cities is estimated to be 15% to 23%. The following 101 metropolitan areas with the largest population projections for the years 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100, according to professors Daniel Hoornweg and Kevin Pope, are listed below. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs ( UN DESA )

2625-460: The 1960s and 1970s often resulted in the mass emigration of European-descended settlers out of Africa – especially from Algeria and Morocco (1.6 million pieds-noirs in North Africa), Kenya, Congo, Rhodesia, Mozambique and Angola. By the end of 1977, more than one million Portuguese were thought to have returned from Africa. Nevertheless, people in Africa of European descent remain

2700-515: The 2000s decade as the African Decade on African Traditional Medicine in an effort to promote The WHO African Region ’s adopted resolution for institutionalizing traditional medicine in health care systems across the continent. Public policy makers in the region are challenged with consideration of the importance of traditional/indigenous health systems and whether their coexistence with the modern medical and health sub-sector would improve

2775-590: The 20th century, small but economically important communities of Lebanese and Chinese have also developed in the larger coastal cities of West and East Africa, respectively. There are three major linguistic phyla native to Africa: Niger–Congo languages (including Bantu ) in West , Central , Southeast and Southern Africa ; Nilo-Saharan languages (unity debated) spoken from Tanzania to Sudan and from Chad to Mali ; Khoisan languages (probably no phylogenetic unit, see Khoe languages ), concentrated in

2850-417: The 21st century in the developed world. Some researchers, such as Jane N. O'Sullivan, contend that many recent population projections have underestimated population growth. She notes that in the last decades, "support for family planning has waned, and global fertility decline has decelerated as a result." The table below shows that from 2020 to 2050 and beyond to 2100, the bulk of the world's population growth

2925-477: The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) was launched in 1995 with the aim of controlling the disease. Tuberculosis is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality on a global scale, especially in high HIV-prevalent populations in the sub-Saharan African region, with a high case fatality rate . National health systems vary between countries. In Ghana , most health care is provided by

3000-639: The African population will happen regardless of the rate of decrease of fertility, because of the high proportion of young people already living today, who are in, or approaching, their fertile years . For example, the UN projects that the population of Nigeria will surpass that of the United States by about 2050. (bn) 2020–2100 (bn) The population of the More Developed regions is slated to remain mostly unchanged, at 1.2-1.3 billion for

3075-537: The UN predicted that global population would reach 11.2 billion by 2100 and still be growing then at the rate of 0.1% per year. The 2022 revision of the UN's World Population Prospects report represents a departure from the pattern of the previous ten years and expects that a slowing of the population growth rate will lead to a population peak of 10.4 billion in the 2080s, after which it would then begin to slowly fall. This shift from earlier projections of peak population and predicted date of zero population growth comes from

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3150-449: The UN projects that Nigeria will gain about 340 million people, about the present population of the US, to become the third most populous country, and China will lose almost half of its population. Even though the global fertility rate continues to fall, chart #2 shows that because of population momentum the global population will continue to grow, although at a steadily slower rate, until

3225-401: The United Nations published five projections of long-term world population growth. According to their medium projection, the world population would grow to 10.0 billion by 2050, 11.2 billion by 2100, and 11.5 billion by 2150. Estimates published in the early 2000s tended to predict that the population of Earth would stop increasing around 2070. For example in a 2004 long-term prospective report,

3300-492: The authors of the 2004 UN report assumed that life expectancy would rise slowly and continuously. The projections in the report assume this with no upper limit, though at a slowing pace depending on circumstances in individual countries. By 2100, the report assumed life expectancy to be from 66 to 97 years, and by 2300 from 87 to 106 years, depending on the country. Based on that assumption, they expect that rising life expectancy will produce small but continuing population growth by

3375-644: The centuries have variously intermixed with migrants from the Arabian peninsula. Small communities of Afro-Asiatic-speaking Beja nomads can also be found in Egypt and Sudan. In the Horn of Africa , Afro-Asiatic -speaking groups predominate. Ethiopian and Eritrean groups like the Amhara and Tigrayans (collectively known as Habesha ) speak languages from the Semitic branch of Afro-Asiatic language family, while

3450-550: The coast are generally mixed with Bantu, Arab, Indian and European origins. Malay and Indian ancestries are also important components in the group of people known in South Africa as Cape Coloureds (people with origins in two or more races and continents). Beginning with the 21st century many Hispanics , primarily Mexicans , Central Americans , Chileans , Peruvians , and Colombians , have immigrated to Africa. Around 500,000 Hispanics have immigrated to Africa, most of whom live in South Africa, Kenya, Nigeria, Uganda, and Ghana. During

3525-438: The downward impact of global urbanization on fertility. Randers' "most likely scenario" predicted a peak in world population in the early 2040s at about 8.1 billion people, followed by decline. In 2012, the UN changed its prediction to the effect that no maximum would likely be reached in the 21st century, and that by the year 2100 world population would increase to somewhere in the range 9.6 to 12.3 billion with 10.9 billion being

3600-453: The end of the projections, ranging from 0.03 to 0.07 percent annually. The hypothetical feasibility (and wide availability) of life extension by technological means would further contribute to long term (beyond 2100) population growth. Evolutionary biology also suggests the demographic transition may reverse itself and global population may continue to grow in the long term. In addition, recent evidence suggests birth rates may be rising in

3675-583: The equitability and accessibility of health care distribution, the health status of populations, and the social-economic development of nations within sub-Saharan Africa. Speakers of Bantu languages (part of the Niger–Congo family) predominate in southern, central and southeast Africa. The Bantu farmers from West Africa's inland savanna progressively expanded over most of Africa. But there are also several Nilotic groups in South Sudan and East Africa,

3750-618: The government and largely administered by the Ministry of Health and Ghana Health Services . The healthcare system has five levels of providers: health posts which are first level primary care for rural areas, health centers and clinics, district hospitals, regional hospitals and tertiary hospitals. These programs are funded by the government of Ghana, financial credits, Internally Generated Fund (IGF), and Donors-pooled Health Fund. A shortage of health professionals compounded by migration of health workers from sub-Saharan Africa to other parts of

3825-610: The largest and most influential. In the central Sahara, Mandinka or Mande groups are most significant. Chadic -speaking groups, including the Hausa , are found in the more northerly parts of the region nearest to the Sahara and Nilo-Saharan communities such as the Kanuri , Zarma and Songhai are present in eastern parts of West Africa bordering Central Africa . The peoples of North Africa comprise three main groups: Berbers in

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3900-433: The last several decades, global life expectancy at birth, has risen from 48 years in 1950–1955 to 67 years in 2000–2005, is expected to keep rising to reach 77 years in 2045–2050 and 83 years in 2095–2100. In the more developed regions, the projected increase is from 76 years during the period 2000–2005 to 84 years during the period 2045–2050 and 90 in 2095–2100. Among the less developed countries, where life expectancy during

3975-591: The launching of the Bamako Initiative — chartered in response to financial issues occurring in the region during the 1980s, and with the aim of increasing access to vital medications through community involvement in revolving drug funds. The 1987 Bamako Initiative conference, organized by the WHO was held in Bamako , the capital of Mali , and helped reshape the health policy of sub-Saharan Africa. The meeting

4050-421: The main driver of future population growth will be the evolution of the fertility rate. Where fertility is high, demographers generally assume that fertility will decline and eventually stabilize at about two children per woman. During the period 2015–2020, the average world fertility rate was 2.5 children per woman, about half the level in 1950–1955 (5 children per woman). In the medium variant, global fertility

4125-482: The mid 2080s (the median line). The main driver of long-term future population growth on this planet is projected to be the continuing evolution of fertility and mortality . Projections of global human population are generally based on birth rates and death rates, and since these are difficult to predict very far into the future, forecasts of global population numbers and growth rates have changed over time. In 1831, president of Yale college Jeremiah Day included

4200-435: The midpoint of that range. The main reason for the revision was a recognition that the high fertility rate in Africa was not declining as fast as had been previously assumed. Another 2014 paper by demographers from several universities, using data from the UN's 2014 report and their own statistical methods, forecast that the world's population would reach about 10.9 billion in 2100 and continue growing thereafter. In 2017

4275-548: The mixed Swahili people on the Swahili Coast , and a few remaining indigenous Khoisan ( San and Khoikhoi ) and Pygmy peoples in southern and central Africa, respectively. Native Bantu -speaking Africans also predominate in Gabon and Equatorial Guinea , and are found in parts of southern Cameroon. In the Kalahari Desert of Southern Africa , the distinct people known as the "San" have long been present. Together with

4350-1077: The northwest, Egyptians and Libyans in northeast, and Nilo-Saharan -speaking peoples in the east. The non-native Muslim settlers who arrived in the 7th century introduced the Arabic language and Islam to the region, initiating a process of linguistic Arabization of the region's inhabitants. The Semitic Phoenicians (who founded Carthage ) and Hyksos , the Indo-Iranian Alans , the Indo-European Greeks , Romans and Vandals settled in North Africa as well. Berber -speaking populations still make significant communities within Morocco and Algeria and are still also present in smaller numbers in Tunisia and Libya . The Berber-speaking Tuareg and other often- nomadic peoples are

4425-456: The past century and consequently shows a large youth bulge , further reinforced by increasing life expectancy in most African countries. Total population as of 2024 is about 1.5 billion, with a growth rate of about 100 million every three years. The total fertility rate (births per woman) for Africa is 4.1 as of 2024, the highest in the world. The most populous African country is Nigeria with over 206 million inhabitants as of 2020 and

4500-463: The period 2000–2005 was just under 66 years, it is expected to be 76 years in 2045–2050 and 81 years by 2100. Migration can have a significant effect on population change. Global south–south migration accounts for 38% of total migration, and global south–north for 34%. For example, the United Nations reports that during the period 2010–2020, fourteen countries will have seen a net inflow of more than one million migrants, while ten countries will have seen

4575-445: The population of Africa may reach 2.49 billion by 2050 (about 26% of the world's total) and 4.28 billion by 2100 (about 39% of the world's total). The number of babies born in Africa compared to the rest of the world is expected to reach approximately 37% in the year 2050. The population of Africa first surpassed one billion in 2009, with a doubling time of 27 years (growth rate 2.6% p.a.). Population growth has continued at almost

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4650-455: The population of sub-Saharan Africa will double by 2050. The Pew Research Center observes that 50% of births in the year 2100 will be in Africa. Other organizations project lower levels of population growth in Africa, based particularly on improvement in women's education and successful implementation of family planning. During the remainder of this century, some countries will see population growth and some will see population decline. For example,

4725-571: The principal inhabitants of the Saharan interior of North Africa. In Mauritania, there is a small Berber community and Niger–Congo-speaking peoples in the South, though in both regions Arabic and Arab culture predominates. In Sudan, although Arabic and Arab culture predominates, it is also inhabited by originally Nilo-Saharan -speaking groups such as the Nubians , Fur , Masalit and Zaghawa who over

4800-538: The rankings will change between now and the end of this century. From 2024 to 2050, the eight highlighted countries are expected to account for about half of the world's projected population increase: India , Nigeria , the Democratic Republic of the Congo , Pakistan , Ethiopia , Tanzania , Egypt , and Indonesia . Large urban areas are hubs of economic development and innovation, with larger cities underpinning regional economies and local and global sustainability initiatives. Currently, 757 million humans live in

4875-501: The region posing a public health and socioeconomic crisis for Sub-Saharan Africa. Scarcity of data for pathogenesis and subtypes for diabetes in Sub-Saharan African communities has led to gaps in documenting epidemiology for the disease. High rates of undiagnosed diabetes in many countries leaves individuals at a high risk of chronic health complications, thus, posing a high risk of diabetes-related morbidity and mortality in

4950-492: The region. In 2011, Africa was home to 69% of all people living with HIV/AIDS worldwide. In response, a number of initiatives have been launched to educate the public on HIV/AIDS. Among these are combination prevention programmes, considered to be the most effective initiative, the abstinence, be faithful, use a condom campaign, and the Desmond Tutu HIV Foundation 's outreach programs. According to

5025-478: The remainder of the 21st century. All population growth comes from the Less Developed regions. The table below breaks out the UN's future population growth predictions by region (%/yr) (%/yr) (%/yr) The UN projects that between 2020 and 2100 there will be declines in population growth in all six regions, that by 2100 three of them will be undergoing population decline, and the world will have entered

5100-451: The same pace, and total population is expected to surpass 2 billion by 2038 (doubling time 29 years, 2.4% p.a.). Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to make more than half of the global population increase projected through 2050. The reason for the uncontrolled population growth since the mid 20th century is the decrease of infant mortality and general increase of life expectancy without a corresponding reduction in fertility rate , due to

5175-683: The smaller Kalahari Desert in Southern Africa , are very sparsely populated. Heavily populated areas include the Mediterranean Sea coast, the Nile River valley and delta, Nigeria and vicinity and the southern coast of West Africa , Ethiopia , the greater East African Rift area, Madagascar , coastal and urban South Africa , and the Middle Africa megacities of Kinshasa and Luanda . The increase in population

5250-468: The sub-Saharan African region. Results of Global Burden of Disease studies reveal that the age-standardized death rates of non-communicable diseases in at least four Sub-Saharan countries including South Africa , Democratic Republic of Congo , Nigeria , and Ethiopia supersede that of identified high-income countries. Improvement in statistics systems and increase in epidemiological studies with in-depth analysis of disease risk factors could improve

5325-452: The understanding of non-communicable diseases (i.e.: diabetes , hypertension , cancer , cardiovascular disease , obesity , etc.) in sub-Saharan Africa as well as better inform decisions surrounding healthcare policy in the region. Onchocerciasis ("river blindness"), a common cause of blindness , is also endemic to parts of the region. More than 99% of people affected by the illness worldwide live in 31 countries therein. In response,

5400-492: The world (namely English-speaking nations such as the United States and the United Kingdom ) has negatively impacted productivity and efficacy of the region's health systems. More than 85% of individuals in Africa use traditional medicine as an alternative to often expensive allopathic medical health care and costly pharmaceutical products. The Organization of African Unity (OAU) Heads of State and Government declared

5475-425: The year 2050 tend to vary depending on the organization making them because each make their own assumptions of the drivers of population change: fertility, mortality and migration. The UN Population Division report of 2022 projects world population to continue growing after 2050, although at a steadily decreasing rate, to peak at 10.4 billion in 2086, and then to start a slow decline to about 10.3 billion in 2100 with

5550-432: Was 25 percent less than the number in 2001. Malaria is an endemic illness in Sub-Saharan Africa, where the majority of malaria cases and deaths worldwide occur. Studies show that more than half of the world's maternal deaths occur in Sub-Saharan Africa. However progress has been made in this area, as maternal mortality rates have decreased for multiple countries in the region by about half since 1990. Additionally,

5625-575: Was attended by African Ministers of Health who advocated for improvement of healthcare access through the revitalization of primary healthcare. The new strategy substantially increased accessibility through community-based healthcare reform , resulting in more efficient and equitable provision of services. The public health community within the region raised issues in response to the initiative, of which included: equity, access, affordability, integration issues, relative importance given to medications, management, dependency, logistics, and sustainability. As

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