Guessing is the act of drawing a swift conclusion, called a guess , from data directly at hand, which is then held as probable or tentative, while the person making the guess (the guesser ) admittedly lacks material for a greater degree of certainty. A guess is an unstable answer, as it is "always putative, fallible, open to further revision and interpretation, and validated against the horizon of possible meanings by showing that one interpretation is more probable than another in light of what we already know". In many of its uses, "the meaning of guessing is assumed as implicitly understood", and the term is therefore often used without being meticulously defined. Guessing may combine elements of deduction , induction , abduction , and the purely random selection of one choice from a set of given options. Guessing may also involve the intuition of the guesser, who may have a " gut feeling " about which answer is correct without necessarily being able to articulate a reason for having this feeling.
116-449: Philosopher Mark Tschaepe, who has written extensively on the scientific and epistemological role of guessing, has noted that there are often-overlooked "gradations" of guessing — that is, different kinds of guesses susceptible to different levels of confidence. Tschaepe defines guessing as "an initial, deliberate originary activity of imaginatively creating, selecting, or dismissing potential solutions to problems or answers to questions as
232-443: A consequent . P is the assumption in a (possibly counterfactual ) What If question. The adjective hypothetical , meaning "having the nature of a hypothesis", or "being assumed to exist as an immediate consequence of a hypothesis", can refer to any of these meanings of the term "hypothesis". In its ancient usage, hypothesis referred to a summary of the plot of a classical drama . The English word hypothesis comes from
348-538: A century before, were first observed . In 2019, the international collaboration Event Horizon Telescope presented the first direct image of a black hole 's accretion disc . Modern science is commonly divided into three major branches : natural science , social science , and formal science . Each of these branches comprises various specialised yet overlapping scientific disciplines that often possess their own nomenclature and expertise. Both natural and social sciences are empirical sciences , as their knowledge
464-479: A convenient mathematical approach that simplifies cumbersome calculations . Cardinal Bellarmine gave a famous example of this usage in the warning issued to Galileo in the early 17th century: that he must not treat the motion of the Earth as a reality, but merely as a hypothesis. In common usage in the 21st century, a hypothesis refers to a provisional idea whose merit requires evaluation. For proper evaluation,
580-401: A decision must be made, the educated guess of the experts will be the best basis for a decision — an educated guess is better than an uneducated guess." An estimate is one kind of educated guess, although often one that involves making a numerical determination, and using some knowledge of known or observable variables to determine the most likely number or range of numbers. Wild estimation is
696-481: A discipline. Ideas on human nature, society, and economics evolved during the Enlightenment. Hume and other Scottish Enlightenment thinkers developed A Treatise of Human Nature , which was expressed historically in works by authors including James Burnett , Adam Ferguson , John Millar and William Robertson , all of whom merged a scientific study of how humans behaved in ancient and primitive cultures with
812-411: A few of their scientific predecessors – Galileo , Kepler , Boyle , and Newton principally – as the guides to every physical and social field of the day. The 18th century saw significant advancements in the practice of medicine and physics; the development of biological taxonomy by Carl Linnaeus ; a new understanding of magnetism and electricity; and the maturation of chemistry as
928-523: A formative phase. In recent years, philosophers of science have tried to integrate the various approaches to evaluating hypotheses, and the scientific method in general, to form a more complete system that integrates the individual concerns of each approach. Notably, Imre Lakatos and Paul Feyerabend , Karl Popper's colleague and student, respectively, have produced novel attempts at such a synthesis. Concepts in Hempel's deductive-nomological model play
1044-444: A further guess, Tschaepe notes the game of Twenty Questions , which he describes as "similar to guessing a number that the other person is thinking, but unlike guessing a number as a singular action... allows for combining abductive reasoning with deductive and inductive reasoning". An apparently unreasoned guess that turns out to be correct may be called a happy guess , or a lucky guess , and it has been argued that "a 'lucky guess'
1160-423: A greater role in knowledge creation and it was not until the 19th century that many of the institutional and professional features of science began to take shape, along with the changing of "natural philosophy" to "natural science". New knowledge in science is advanced by research from scientists who are motivated by curiosity about the world and a desire to solve problems. Contemporary scientific research
1276-475: A highly stable universe where there could be little loss of resources. However, with the advent of the steam engine and the Industrial Revolution there was an increased understanding that not all forms of energy have the same energy qualities , the ease of conversion to useful work or to another form of energy. This realisation led to the development of the laws of thermodynamics , in which
SECTION 10
#17327902789541392-430: A hypothesis must be falsifiable , and that one cannot regard a proposition or theory as scientific if it does not admit the possibility of being shown to be false. Other philosophers of science have rejected the criterion of falsifiability or supplemented it with other criteria, such as verifiability (e.g., verificationism ) or coherence (e.g., confirmation holism ). The scientific method involves experimentation to test
1508-455: A hypothesis proves unsatisfactory it is modified or discarded. If the hypothesis survives testing, it may become adopted into the framework of a scientific theory , a validly reasoned , self-consistent model or framework for describing the behaviour of certain natural events. A theory typically describes the behaviour of much broader sets of observations than a hypothesis; commonly, a large number of hypotheses can be logically bound together by
1624-461: A key role in the development and testing of hypotheses. Most formal hypotheses connect concepts by specifying the expected relationships between propositions . When a set of hypotheses are grouped together, they become a type of conceptual framework . When a conceptual framework is complex and incorporates causality or explanation, it is generally referred to as a theory. According to noted philosopher of science Carl Gustav Hempel , Hempel provides
1740-529: A matter of selecting one possible answer from a set with little or no reason. Another kind of guessing is conjecture , particularly as used in mathematics to refer to a conclusion or proposition which appears to be correct based on incomplete information, but for which no proof has been found. Tschaepe notes that "guessing has been indicated as an important part of scientific processes, especially with regard to hypothesis-generation". Regarding scientific hypothesis-generation, Tschaepe has stated that guessing
1856-407: A new non- teleological way. This implied a shift in the view of objects: objects were now considered as having no innate goals. Leibniz assumed that different types of things all work according to the same general laws of nature, with no special formal or final causes. During this time the declared purpose and value of science became producing wealth and inventions that would improve human lives, in
1972-539: A piece of information that one player knows, and the object is to coerce others into guessing that piece of information without actually divulging it in text or spoken word. Charades is probably the most well-known game of this type, and has spawned numerous commercial variants that involve differing rules on the type of communication to be given, such as Catch Phrase , Taboo , Pictionary , and similar. The genre also includes many game shows such as Win, Lose or Draw , Password and $ 25,000 Pyramid . Many of
2088-458: A preference for one outcome over another. Eliminating the bias can be achieved through transparency, careful experimental design , and a thorough peer review process of the experimental results and conclusions. After the results of an experiment are announced or published, it is normal practice for independent researchers to double-check how the research was performed, and to follow up by performing similar experiments to determine how dependable
2204-456: A priori disciplines and because of this, there is disagreement on whether they constitute a science. Nevertheless, the formal sciences play an important role in the empirical sciences. Calculus , for example, was initially invented to understand motion in physics. Natural and social sciences that rely heavily on mathematical applications include mathematical physics , chemistry , biology , finance , and economics . Applied science
2320-560: A proposed new law of nature. In such an investigation, if the tested remedy shows no effect in a few cases, these do not necessarily falsify the hypothesis. Instead, statistical tests are used to determine how likely it is that the overall effect would be observed if the hypothesized relation does not exist. If that likelihood is sufficiently small (e.g., less than 1%), the existence of a relation may be assumed. Otherwise, any observed effect may be due to pure chance. In statistical hypothesis testing, two hypotheses are compared. These are called
2436-535: A random number. Tschaepe examines such guesses at greater length with the instance of guessing a number between 1 and 100, for which Tschaepe notes that the guesser "has to look for clues that are specific to what or whom is ordering them to guess, as well as possible past scenarios that involved guessing numbers", and once these are exhausted, "there comes a point very early in the process wherein no other clue to an answer exists". As an exemplary case of guessing that involves progressively more information from which to make
SECTION 20
#17327902789542552-400: A revolution in information technology and the rise of the global internet and mobile computing , including smartphones . The need for mass systematisation of long, intertwined causal chains and large amounts of data led to the rise of the fields of systems theory and computer-assisted scientific modelling . The Human Genome Project was completed in 2003 by identifying and mapping all of
2668-461: A separate discipline from philosophy when Wilhelm Wundt founded the first laboratory for psychological research in 1879. During the mid-19th century Charles Darwin and Alfred Russel Wallace independently proposed the theory of evolution by natural selection in 1858, which explained how different plants and animals originated and evolved. Their theory was set out in detail in Darwin's book On
2784-592: A separate field because they rely on deductive reasoning instead of the scientific method or empirical evidence as their main methodology. Applied sciences are disciplines that use scientific knowledge for practical purposes, such as engineering and medicine . The history of science spans the majority of the historical record, with the earliest written records of identifiable predecessors to modern science dating to Bronze Age Egypt and Mesopotamia from around 3000 to 1200 BCE . Their contributions to mathematics, astronomy , and medicine entered and shaped
2900-475: A set of basic assumptions that are needed to justify the scientific method: there is an objective reality shared by all rational observers; this objective reality is governed by natural laws ; these laws were discovered by means of systematic observation and experimentation. Mathematics is essential in the formation of hypotheses , theories , and laws, because it is used extensively in quantitative modelling, observing, and collecting measurements . Statistics
3016-463: A set of rules. It includes mathematics, systems theory , and theoretical computer science . The formal sciences share similarities with the other two branches by relying on objective, careful, and systematic study of an area of knowledge. They are, however, different from the empirical sciences as they rely exclusively on deductive reasoning, without the need for empirical evidence, to verify their abstract concepts. The formal sciences are therefore
3132-478: A single theory. Thus, a theory is a hypothesis explaining various other hypotheses. In that vein, theories are formulated according to most of the same scientific principles as hypotheses. Scientists may generate a model , an attempt to describe or depict an observation in terms of a logical, physical or mathematical representation, and to generate new hypotheses that can be tested by experimentation. While performing experiments to test hypotheses, scientists may have
3248-435: A small negative score for each wrong answer, so that the average number of correct guesses will be offset by the combined penalty for the average number of incorrect guesses. In such a scenario, a guesser who can eliminate one or two wrong answers can gain overall by guessing from the remaining pool of answers. According to Polanyi , guessing is the end result of a problem, observations of clues, and directedness toward solving
3364-429: A strong awareness of the determining forces of modernity . Modern sociology largely originated from this movement. In 1776, Adam Smith published The Wealth of Nations , which is often considered the first work on modern economics. During the nineteenth century many distinguishing characteristics of contemporary modern science began to take shape. These included the transformation of the life and physical sciences;
3480-438: A unified theory in the early 20th-century when the modern synthesis reconciled Darwinian evolution with classical genetics . Albert Einstein 's theory of relativity and the development of quantum mechanics complement classical mechanics to describe physics in extreme length , time and gravity . Widespread use of integrated circuits in the last quarter of the 20th century combined with communications satellites led to
3596-411: A useful metaphor that describes the relationship between a conceptual framework and the framework as it is observed and perhaps tested (interpreted framework). "The whole system floats, as it were, above the plane of observation and is anchored to it by rules of interpretation. These might be viewed as strings which are not part of the network but link certain points of the latter with specific places in
Guessing - Misplaced Pages Continue
3712-418: A volitional response to those problems or questions when insufficient information is available to make merely a deduction and/or induction to the solution or answer". He objects to definitions that describe guessing as either forming a "random or insufficiently formed opinion", which Tschaepe deems too ambiguous to be helpful, or "to instantaneously happen upon an opinion without reasoning". Tschaepe notes that in
3828-720: A way to avoid talking about distressing issues, so some therapists prefer other kinds of games to facilitate communication. Examples of guessing games include: In software testing , error guessing is a test method in which test cases used to find bugs in programs are established based on experience in prior testing. The scope of test cases usually rely on the software tester involved, who uses past experience and intuition to determine what situations commonly cause software failure, or may cause errors to appear. Typical errors include divide by zero , null pointers , or invalid parameters . Error guessing has no explicit rules for testing; test cases can be designed depending on
3944-424: A working hypothesis is constructed as a statement of expectations, which can be linked to the exploratory research purpose in empirical investigation. Working hypotheses are often used as a conceptual framework in qualitative research. The provisional nature of working hypotheses makes them useful as an organizing device in applied research. Here they act like a useful guide to address problems that are still in
4060-570: Is a paradigm case of a belief that does not count as knowledge". Jane Austen , in Emma , has the titular character respond to a character calling a match that she made a "lucky guess" by saying that "a lucky guess is never merely luck. There is always some talent in it". As Tschaepe notes, William Whewell stated that certain scientific discoveries "are not improperly described as happy Guesses; and that Guesses, in these as in other instances, imply various suppositions made, of which some one turns out to be
4176-417: Is a proposed explanation for a phenomenon . For a hypothesis to be a scientific hypothesis , the scientific method requires that one can test it. Scientists generally base scientific hypotheses on previous observations that cannot satisfactorily be explained with the available scientific theories. Even though the words "hypothesis" and " theory " are often used interchangeably, a scientific hypothesis
4292-487: Is based on empirical observations and is capable of being tested for its validity by other researchers working under the same conditions. Natural science is the study of the physical world. It can be divided into two main branches: life science and physical science . These two branches may be further divided into more specialised disciplines. For example, physical science can be subdivided into physics, chemistry , astronomy , and earth science . Modern natural science
4408-439: Is becoming a central feature of computational contributions to science, for example in agent-based computational economics , random forests , topic modeling and various forms of prediction. However, machines alone rarely advance knowledge as they require human guidance and capacity to reason; and they can introduce bias against certain social groups or sometimes underperform against humans. Interdisciplinary science involves
4524-714: Is considered to be one of the most important publications in medicine and was used until the 18th century. By the eleventh century most of Europe had become Christian, and in 1088, the University of Bologna emerged as the first university in Europe. As such, demand for Latin translation of ancient and scientific texts grew, a major contributor to the Renaissance of the 12th century . Renaissance scholasticism in western Europe flourished, with experiments done by observing, describing, and classifying subjects in nature. In
4640-542: Is highly collaborative and is usually done by teams in academic and research institutions , government agencies, and companies. The practical impact of their work has led to the emergence of science policies that seek to influence the scientific enterprise by prioritising the ethical and moral development of commercial products, armaments, health care, public infrastructure, and environmental protection . The word science has been used in Middle English since
4756-403: Is l/N + l/N - l/N = l/N", meaning that taking a true wild guess is no different from choosing an answer at random. Philosopher David Stove described this process as follows: A paradigm case of guessing is, when captains toss a coin to start a cricket match, and one of them 'calls', say "heads". This cannot be a case of knowledge, scientific knowledge or any other, if it is a case of guessing. If
Guessing - Misplaced Pages Continue
4872-423: Is not the same as a scientific theory . A working hypothesis is a provisionally accepted hypothesis proposed for further research in a process beginning with an educated guess or thought. A different meaning of the term hypothesis is used in formal logic , to denote the antecedent of a proposition ; thus in the proposition "If P , then Q ", P denotes the hypothesis (or antecedent); Q can be called
4988-543: Is the initial, creative process involved in abductive reasoning wherein new ideas are first suggested. Following the work of Charles S. Peirce, guessing is "a combination of musing and logical analysis." Science is done by making educated guesses about how the world works and then testing those guesses by doing experiments. Such an educated guess is called a hypothesis . People learn to guess at an early age, and there are many guessing games played by children. In practice, children may find themselves in situations where "guessing
5104-515: Is the only strategy they have available to them". In order to cope with these situations, children develop "(1) the ability to recognize situations in which guessing is the only reasonable strategy even though it provides no more than a gross estimate; (2) the ability to recognize that different levels of accuracy are possible and acceptable in different situations". Certain kinds of exams , particularly those that involve multiple choice questions, attempt to penalize exam takers for guessing by giving
5220-447: Is the search for solutions to practical problems using this knowledge. Most understanding comes from basic research, though sometimes applied research targets specific practical problems. This leads to technological advances that were not previously imaginable. Scientific research involves using the scientific method , which seeks to objectively explain the events of nature in a reproducible way. Scientists usually take for granted
5336-533: Is the successor to the natural philosophy that began in Ancient Greece . Galileo , Descartes , Bacon , and Newton debated the benefits of using approaches that were more mathematical and more experimental in a methodical way. Still, philosophical perspectives, conjectures , and presuppositions , often overlooked, remain necessary in natural science. Systematic data collection, including discovery science , succeeded natural history , which emerged in
5452-427: Is the use of the scientific method and knowledge to attain practical goals and includes a broad range of disciplines such as engineering and medicine. Engineering is the use of scientific principles to invent, design and build machines, structures and technologies. Science may contribute to the development of new technologies. Medicine is the practice of caring for patients by maintaining and restoring health through
5568-523: Is typically divided into two or three major branches: the natural sciences (e.g., physics , chemistry , and biology ), which study the physical world ; and the behavioural sciences (e.g., economics , psychology , and sociology ), which study individuals and societies. The formal sciences (e.g., logic , mathematics, and theoretical computer science ), which study formal systems governed by axioms and rules, are sometimes described as being sciences as well; however, they are often regarded as
5684-403: Is used to make falsifiable predictions, which are typically posted before being tested by experimentation. Disproof of a prediction is evidence of progress. Experimentation is especially important in science to help establish causal relationships to avoid the correlation fallacy , though in some sciences such as astronomy or geology, a predicted observation might be more appropriate. When
5800-410: Is used to summarise and analyse data, which allows scientists to assess the reliability of experimental results. In the scientific method an explanatory thought experiment or hypothesis is put forward as an explanation using parsimony principles and is expected to seek consilience – fitting with other accepted facts related to an observation or scientific question. This tentative explanation
5916-632: The Byzantine empire and Arabic translations were done by groups such as the Nestorians and the Monophysites . Under the Caliphate , these Arabic translations were later improved and developed by Arabic scientists. By the 6th and 7th centuries, the neighbouring Sassanid Empire established the medical Academy of Gondeshapur , which is considered by Greek, Syriac, and Persian physicians as
SECTION 50
#17327902789546032-740: The Early Middle Ages (400 to 1000 CE), but in the Medieval renaissances ( Carolingian Renaissance , Ottonian Renaissance and the Renaissance of the 12th century ) scholarship flourished again. Some Greek manuscripts lost in Western Europe were preserved and expanded upon in the Middle East during the Islamic Golden Age , along with the later efforts of Byzantine Greek scholars who brought Greek manuscripts from
6148-609: The Proto-Italic language as * skije- or * skijo- meaning "to know", which may originate from Proto-Indo-European language as *skh 1 -ie , *skh 1 -io , meaning "to incise". The Lexikon der indogermanischen Verben proposed sciō is a back-formation of nescīre , meaning "to not know, be unfamiliar with", which may derive from Proto-Indo-European *sekH- in Latin secāre , or *skh 2 - , from *sḱʰeh2(i)- meaning "to cut". In
6264-401: The ancient Greek word ὑπόθεσις hypothesis whose literal or etymological sense is "putting or placing under" and hence in extended use has many other meanings including "supposition". In Plato 's Meno (86e–87b), Socrates dissects virtue with a method used by mathematicians, that of "investigating from a hypothesis". In this sense, 'hypothesis' refers to a clever idea or to
6380-561: The camera obscura and the telescope . At the start of the Renaissance, Roger Bacon , Vitello , and John Peckham each built up a scholastic ontology upon a causal chain beginning with sensation, perception, and finally apperception of the individual and universal forms of Aristotle. A model of vision later known as perspectivism was exploited and studied by the artists of the Renaissance. This theory uses only three of Aristotle's four causes: formal, material, and final. In
6496-424: The historical method , case studies , and cross-cultural studies . Moreover, if quantitative information is available, social scientists may rely on statistical approaches to better understand social relationships and processes. Formal science is an area of study that generates knowledge using formal systems . A formal system is an abstract structure used for inferring theorems from axioms according to
6612-431: The materialistic sense of having more food, clothing, and other things. In Bacon's words , "the real and legitimate goal of sciences is the endowment of human life with new inventions and riches ", and he discouraged scientists from pursuing intangible philosophical or spiritual ideas, which he believed contributed little to human happiness beyond "the fume of subtle, sublime or pleasing [speculation]". Science during
6728-463: The null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis . The null hypothesis is the hypothesis that states that there is no relation between the phenomena whose relation is under investigation, or at least not of the form given by the alternative hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis, as the name suggests, is the alternative to the null hypothesis: it states that there is some kind of relation. The alternative hypothesis may take several forms, depending on
6844-499: The prevention , diagnosis , and treatment of injury or disease. The applied sciences are often contrasted with the basic sciences , which are focused on advancing scientific theories and laws that explain and predict events in the natural world. Computational science applies computing power to simulate real-world situations, enabling a better understanding of scientific problems than formal mathematics alone can achieve. The use of machine learning and artificial intelligence
6960-487: The theory of impetus . His criticism served as an inspiration to medieval scholars and Galileo Galilei, who extensively cited his works ten centuries later. During late antiquity and the early Middle Ages , natural phenomena were mainly examined via the Aristotelian approach. The approach includes Aristotle's four causes : material, formal, moving, and final cause. Many Greek classical texts were preserved by
7076-406: The 13th century, medical teachers and students at Bologna began opening human bodies, leading to the first anatomy textbook based on human dissection by Mondino de Luzzi . New developments in optics played a role in the inception of the Renaissance , both by challenging long-held metaphysical ideas on perception, as well as by contributing to the improvement and development of technology such as
SECTION 60
#17327902789547192-717: The 14th century in the sense of "the state of knowing". The word was borrowed from the Anglo-Norman language as the suffix -cience , which was borrowed from the Latin word scientia , meaning "knowledge, awareness, understanding". It is a noun derivative of the Latin sciens meaning "knowing", and undisputedly derived from the Latin sciō , the present participle scīre , meaning "to know". There are many hypotheses for science ' s ultimate word origin. According to Michiel de Vaan , Dutch linguist and Indo-Europeanist , sciō may have its origin in
7308-444: The 16th century by describing and classifying plants, animals, minerals, and other biotic beings. Today, "natural history" suggests observational descriptions aimed at popular audiences. Social science is the study of human behaviour and the functioning of societies. It has many disciplines that include, but are not limited to anthropology , economics, history, human geography , political science , psychology, and sociology. In
7424-633: The 3rd millennium BCE, the ancient Egyptians developed a decimal numbering system , solved practical problems using geometry , and developed a calendar . Their healing therapies involved drug treatments and the supernatural, such as prayers, incantations , and rituals. The ancient Mesopotamians used knowledge about the properties of various natural chemicals for manufacturing pottery , faience , glass, soap, metals, lime plaster , and waterproofing. They studied animal physiology , anatomy , behaviour , and astrology for divinatory purposes. The Mesopotamians had an intense interest in medicine and
7540-404: The Enlightenment was dominated by scientific societies and academies , which had largely replaced universities as centres of scientific research and development. Societies and academies were the backbones of the maturation of the scientific profession. Another important development was the popularisation of science among an increasingly literate population. Enlightenment philosophers turned to
7656-653: The Greek natural philosophy of classical antiquity , whereby formal attempts were made to provide explanations of events in the physical world based on natural causes, while further advancements, including the introduction of the Hindu–Arabic numeral system , were made during the Golden Age of India . Scientific research deteriorated in these regions after the fall of the Western Roman Empire during
7772-410: The Greek philosopher Leucippus and his student Democritus . Later, Epicurus would develop a full natural cosmology based on atomism, and would adopt a "canon" (ruler, standard) which established physical criteria or standards of scientific truth. The Greek doctor Hippocrates established the tradition of systematic medical science and is known as " The Father of Medicine ". A turning point in
7888-458: The Milesian school, which was founded by Thales of Miletus and later continued by his successors Anaximander and Anaximenes , were the first to attempt to explain natural phenomena without relying on the supernatural . The Pythagoreans developed a complex number philosophy and contributed significantly to the development of mathematical science. The theory of atoms was developed by
8004-555: The Origin of Species , published in 1859. Separately, Gregor Mendel presented his paper, " Experiments on Plant Hybridization " in 1865, which outlined the principles of biological inheritance, serving as the basis for modern genetics. Early in the 19th century John Dalton suggested the modern atomic theory , based on Democritus's original idea of indivisible particles called atoms . The laws of conservation of energy , conservation of momentum and conservation of mass suggested
8120-405: The ability of some hypothesis to adequately answer the question under investigation. In contrast, unfettered observation is not as likely to raise unexplained issues or open questions in science, as would the formulation of a crucial experiment to test the hypothesis. A thought experiment might also be used to test the hypothesis. In framing a hypothesis, the investigator must not currently know
8236-472: The advent of writing systems in early civilisations like Ancient Egypt and Mesopotamia , creating the earliest written records in the history of science in around 3000 to 1200 BCE . Although the words and concepts of "science" and "nature" were not part of the conceptual landscape at the time, the ancient Egyptians and Mesopotamians made contributions that would later find a place in Greek and medieval science: mathematics, astronomy, and medicine. From
8352-436: The author's intention is beyond our reach". Because the reader can never put themselves in exactly the situation the author was in when the text was written, to construe the meaning of the text "is to make a guess". A guessing game is a game in which the object is to use guessing to discover some kind of information, such as a word, a phrase, a title, or the identity or location of an object. A guessing game has as its core
8468-422: The captain knows that the coin will fall heads, it is just logically impossible for him also to guess that it will. More than that, however: guessing, at least in such a paradigm case, does not even belong on what may be called the epistemic scale. That is, if the captain, when he calls "heads", is guessing, he is not, in virtue of that, believing, or inclining to think, or conjecturing, or anything of that sort, that
8584-419: The coin will fall heads. And in fact, of course, he normally is not doing any of these things when he guesses. He just calls. And this is guessing, whatever else is. In such an instance, there not only is no reason for favoring "heads" or "tails", but everyone knows this to be the case. Tschaepe also addresses the guess made in a coin flip, contending that it merely represents an extremely limited case of guessing
8700-398: The combination of two or more disciplines into one, such as bioinformatics , a combination of biology and computer science or cognitive sciences . The concept has existed since the ancient Greek period and it became popular again in the 20th century. Scientific research can be labelled as either basic or applied research. Basic research is the search for knowledge and applied research
8816-610: The course of tens of thousands of years, taking different forms around the world, and few details are known about the very earliest developments. Women likely played a central role in prehistoric science, as did religious rituals . Some scholars use the term " protoscience " to label activities in the past that resemble modern science in some but not all features; however, this label has also been criticised as denigrating, or too suggestive of presentism , thinking about those activities only in relation to modern categories. Direct evidence for scientific processes becomes clearer with
8932-400: The description given by William Whewell , who says that this process "goes on so rapidly that we cannot trace it in its successive steps". A guess that "is merely a hunch or is groundless... is arbitrary and of little consequence epistemologically ". A guess made with no factual basis for its correctness may be called a wild guess . Jonathan Baron has said that "[t]he value of a wild guess
9048-505: The discovery of radioactivity by Henri Becquerel and Marie Curie in 1896, Marie Curie then became the first person to win two Nobel Prizes . In the next year came the discovery of the first subatomic particle, the electron . In the first half of the century the development of antibiotics and artificial fertilisers improved human living standards globally. Harmful environmental issues such as ozone depletion , ocean acidification , eutrophication , and climate change came to
9164-526: The dying Byzantine Empire to Western Europe at the start of the Renaissance . The recovery and assimilation of Greek works and Islamic inquiries into Western Europe from the 10th to 13th century revived " natural philosophy ", which was later transformed by the Scientific Revolution that began in the 16th century as new ideas and discoveries departed from previous Greek conceptions and traditions. The scientific method soon played
9280-596: The earliest medical prescriptions appeared in Sumerian during the Third Dynasty of Ur . They seem to have studied scientific subjects which had practical or religious applications and had little interest in satisfying curiosity. In classical antiquity , there is no real ancient analogue of a modern scientist. Instead, well-educated, usually upper-class, and almost universally male individuals performed various investigations into nature whenever they could afford
9396-484: The framer of a hypothesis needs to define specifics in operational terms. A hypothesis requires more work by the researcher in order to either confirm or disprove it. In due course, a confirmed hypothesis may become part of a theory or occasionally may grow to become a theory itself. Normally, scientific hypotheses have the form of a mathematical model . Sometimes, but not always, one can also formulate them as existential statements , stating that some particular instance of
9512-462: The free energy of the universe is seen as constantly declining: the entropy of a closed universe increases over time. The electromagnetic theory was established in the 19th century by the works of Hans Christian Ørsted , André-Marie Ampère , Michael Faraday , James Clerk Maxwell , Oliver Heaviside , and Heinrich Hertz . The new theory raised questions that could not easily be answered using Newton's framework. The discovery of X-rays inspired
9628-425: The frequent use of precision instruments; the emergence of terms such as "biologist", "physicist", and "scientist"; an increased professionalisation of those studying nature; scientists gaining cultural authority over many dimensions of society; the industrialisation of numerous countries; the thriving of popular science writings; and the emergence of science journals. During the late 19th century, psychology emerged as
9744-474: The games are played co-operatively. In some games some player (s) know the answer, but cannot tell the other(s), instead they must help them to guess it. Guessing games are "readily adaptable for classroom use", as such a game "creates just enough tension to remain exciting, challenging, and competitive" for children, so long as the teacher designs effective rules "to eliminate unruly or unsportsmanship behavior". Children in therapy may initiate guessing games as
9860-530: The genes of the human genome . The first induced pluripotent human stem cells were made in 2006, allowing adult cells to be transformed into stem cells and turn into any cell type found in the body. With the affirmation of the Higgs boson discovery in 2013, the last particle predicted by the Standard Model of particle physics was found. In 2015, gravitational waves , predicted by general relativity
9976-431: The heliocentric model. The printing press was widely used to publish scholarly arguments, including some that disagreed widely with contemporary ideas of nature. Francis Bacon and René Descartes published philosophical arguments in favour of a new type of non-Aristotelian science. Bacon emphasised the importance of experiment over contemplation, questioned the Aristotelian concepts of formal and final cause, promoted
10092-562: The history of early philosophical science was Socrates ' example of applying philosophy to the study of human matters, including human nature, the nature of political communities, and human knowledge itself. The Socratic method as documented by Plato 's dialogues is a dialectic method of hypothesis elimination: better hypotheses are found by steadily identifying and eliminating those that lead to contradictions. The Socratic method searches for general commonly-held truths that shape beliefs and scrutinises them for consistency. Socrates criticised
10208-475: The hypothesis is proven to be either "true" or "false" through a verifiability - or falsifiability -oriented experiment . Any useful hypothesis will enable predictions by reasoning (including deductive reasoning ). It might predict the outcome of an experiment in a laboratory setting or the observation of a phenomenon in nature . The prediction may also invoke statistics and only talk about probabilities. Karl Popper , following others, has argued that
10324-557: The idea that science should study the laws of nature and the improvement of all human life. Descartes emphasised individual thought and argued that mathematics rather than geometry should be used to study nature. At the start of the Age of Enlightenment , Isaac Newton formed the foundation of classical mechanics by his Philosophiæ Naturalis Principia Mathematica , greatly influencing future physicists. Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz incorporated terms from Aristotelian physics , now used in
10440-514: The late 20th century active recruitment of women and elimination of sex discrimination greatly increased the number of women scientists, but large gender disparities remained in some fields. The discovery of the cosmic microwave background in 1964 led to a rejection of the steady-state model of the universe in favour of the Big Bang theory of Georges Lemaître . The century saw fundamental changes within science disciplines. Evolution became
10556-421: The latter case, the guess might appear to occur without reasoning, when in fact a reasoning process may be occurring so quickly in the mind of the guesser that it does not register as a process. This reflects the observation made centuries before by Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz , that "when I turn one way rather than another, it is often because of a series of tiny impressions of which I am not aware". Tschaepe quotes
10672-626: The most important medical center of the ancient world. The House of Wisdom was established in Abbasid -era Baghdad , Iraq , where the Islamic study of Aristotelianism flourished until the Mongol invasions in the 13th century. Ibn al-Haytham , better known as Alhazen, used controlled experiments in his optical study. Avicenna 's compilation of the Canon of Medicine , a medical encyclopaedia,
10788-440: The nature of the hypothesized relation; in particular, it can be two-sided (for example: there is some effect, in a yet unknown direction) or one-sided (the direction of the hypothesized relation, positive or negative, is fixed in advance). Conventional significance levels for testing hypotheses (acceptable probabilities of wrongly rejecting a true null hypothesis) are .10, .05, and .01. The significance level for deciding whether
10904-672: The notion that the only function of the eye is perception, and shifted the main focus in optics from the eye to the propagation of light. Kepler is best known, however, for improving Copernicus' heliocentric model through the discovery of Kepler's laws of planetary motion . Kepler did not reject Aristotelian metaphysics and described his work as a search for the Harmony of the Spheres . Galileo had made significant contributions to astronomy, physics and engineering. However, he became persecuted after Pope Urban VIII sentenced him for writing about
11020-430: The null hypothesis is rejected and the alternative hypothesis is accepted must be determined in advance, before the observations are collected or inspected. If these criteria are determined later, when the data to be tested are already known, the test is invalid. The above procedure is actually dependent on the number of the participants (units or sample size ) that are included in the study. For instance, to avoid having
11136-450: The older type of study of physics as too purely speculative and lacking in self-criticism . Aristotle in the 4th century BCE created a systematic program of teleological philosophy. In the 3rd century BCE, Greek astronomer Aristarchus of Samos was the first to propose a heliocentric model of the universe, with the Sun at the centre and all the planets orbiting it. Aristarchus's model
11252-400: The outcome of a test or that it remains reasonably under continuing investigation. Only in such cases does the experiment, test or study potentially increase the probability of showing the truth of a hypothesis. If the researcher already knows the outcome, it counts as a "consequence" — and the researcher should have already considered this while formulating the hypothesis. If one cannot assess
11368-611: The past, science was a synonym for "knowledge" or "study", in keeping with its Latin origin. A person who conducted scientific research was called a "natural philosopher" or "man of science". In 1834, William Whewell introduced the term scientist in a review of Mary Somerville 's book On the Connexion of the Physical Sciences , crediting it to "some ingenious gentleman" (possibly himself). Science has no single origin. Rather, systematic methods emerged gradually over
11484-402: The phenomenon under examination has some characteristic and causal explanations, which have the general form of universal statements , stating that every instance of the phenomenon has a particular characteristic. In entrepreneurial setting, a hypothesis is used to formulate provisional ideas about the attributes of products or business models. The formulated hypothesis is then evaluated, where
11600-414: The plane of observation. By virtue of those interpretative connections, the network can function as a scientific theory." Hypotheses with concepts anchored in the plane of observation are ready to be tested. In "actual scientific practice the process of framing a theoretical structure and of interpreting it are not always sharply separated, since the intended interpretation usually guides the construction of
11716-410: The predictions by observation or by experience , the hypothesis needs to be tested by others providing observations. For example, a new technology or theory might make the necessary experiments feasible. A trial solution to a problem is commonly referred to as a hypothesis—or, often, as an " educated guess " —because it provides a suggested outcome based on the evidence. However, some scientists reject
11832-457: The problem. Guessing is the action that brings about "a definite solution" (139). here is a definite process to guessing in Polanyi's account, although he does tend towards Whewell and Hempel in the comparison he makes between discovering hypotheses and Gestalt perception (144). Guessing has been asserted to be necessary in literary theory , where "we have to guess the meaning of the text because
11948-573: The public's attention and caused the onset of environmental studies . During this period scientific experimentation became increasingly larger in scale and funding . The extensive technological innovation stimulated by World War I , World War II , and the Cold War led to competitions between global powers , such as the Space Race and nuclear arms race . Substantial international collaborations were also made, despite armed conflicts. In
12064-404: The results might be. Taken in its entirety, the scientific method allows for highly creative problem solving while minimising the effects of subjective and confirmation bias . Intersubjective verifiability , the ability to reach a consensus and reproduce results, is fundamental to the creation of all scientific knowledge. Scientific hypothesis A hypothesis ( pl. : hypotheses )
12180-426: The right one". By contrast, a guess made using prior knowledge to eliminate clearly wrong possibilities may be called an informed guess or an educated guess . Uninformed guesses can be distinguished from the kind of informed guesses that lead to the development of a scientific hypothesis . Tschaepe notes: "This process of guessing is distinct from that of a coin toss or picking a number." Daniel Wueste wrote: "When
12296-576: The sample size be too small to reject a null hypothesis, it is recommended that one specify a sufficient sample size from the beginning. It is advisable to define a small, medium and large effect size for each of a number of important statistical tests which are used to test the hypotheses. Mount Hypothesis in Antarctica is named in appreciation of the role of hypothesis in scientific research. Several hypotheses have been put forth, in different subject areas: hypothesis [...]— Working hypothesis ,
12412-404: The score they had received on a test were happier when another person who did not know the score guessed a lower number; the lower guess gave the student the positive feeling of having exceeded expectations. Science Science is a systematic discipline that builds and organises knowledge in the form of testable hypotheses and predictions about the universe. Modern science
12528-453: The seminal encyclopaedia Natural History . Positional notation for representing numbers likely emerged between the 3rd and 5th centuries CE along Indian trade routes. This numeral system made efficient arithmetic operations more accessible and would eventually become standard for mathematics worldwide. Due to the collapse of the Western Roman Empire , the 5th century saw an intellectual decline and knowledge of Greek conceptions of
12644-434: The situation, either drawing from functional documents or when an unexpected/undocumented error is found while testing operations. A study of guessing in social situations (for example, guessing someone's test score or potential salary) determined that there are situations where it is beneficial to intentionally either overguess (guess a higher amount) or underguess (guess a lower amount). The study noted that students who knew
12760-525: The sixteenth century Nicolaus Copernicus formulated a heliocentric model of the Solar System, stating that the planets revolve around the Sun, instead of the geocentric model where the planets and the Sun revolve around the Earth. This was based on a theorem that the orbital periods of the planets are longer as their orbs are farther from the centre of motion, which he found not to agree with Ptolemy's model. Johannes Kepler and others challenged
12876-405: The social sciences, there are many competing theoretical perspectives, many of which are extended through competing research programs such as the functionalists , conflict theorists , and interactionists in sociology. Due to the limitations of conducting controlled experiments involving large groups of individuals or complex situations, social scientists may adopt other research methods such as
12992-451: The term "educated guess" as incorrect. Experimenters may test and reject several hypotheses before solving the problem. According to Schick and Vaughn, researchers weighing up alternative hypotheses may take into consideration: A working hypothesis is a hypothesis that is provisionally accepted as a basis for further research in the hope that a tenable theory will be produced, even if the hypothesis ultimately fails. Like all hypotheses,
13108-399: The theoretician". It is, however, "possible and indeed desirable, for the purposes of logical clarification, to separate the two steps conceptually". When a possible correlation or similar relation between phenomena is investigated, such as whether a proposed remedy is effective in treating a disease, the hypothesis that a relation exists cannot be examined the same way one might examine
13224-476: The time. Before the invention or discovery of the concept of phusis or nature by the pre-Socratic philosophers , the same words tend to be used to describe the natural "way" in which a plant grows, and the "way" in which, for example, one tribe worships a particular god. For this reason, it is claimed that these men were the first philosophers in the strict sense and the first to clearly distinguish "nature" and "convention". The early Greek philosophers of
13340-484: The world deteriorated in Western Europe. During the period, Latin encyclopaedists such as Isidore of Seville preserved the majority of general ancient knowledge. In contrast, because the Byzantine Empire resisted attacks from invaders, they were able to preserve and improve prior learning. John Philoponus , a Byzantine scholar in the 500s, started to question Aristotle's teaching of physics, introducing
13456-511: Was widely rejected because it was believed to violate the laws of physics, while Ptolemy's Almagest , which contains a geocentric description of the Solar System , was accepted through the early Renaissance instead. The inventor and mathematician Archimedes of Syracuse made major contributions to the beginnings of calculus . Pliny the Elder was a Roman writer and polymath, who wrote
#953046