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127-580: The origins of the National Meteorological Office (ONM) date back to Algeria's ratification of the World Meteorological Organization's convention on April 4, 1963. The ONM was established by decree no. 75–25 on April 29, 1975. It became a public industrial and commercial institution (EPIC) with a scientific and technical mission through decree no. 98–258 on August 25, 1998. The office was derived from

254-745: A pulse Doppler weather radar is used then wind speed and direction can be determined. These methods, however, leave an in-situ observational gap in the lower atmosphere (from 100 m to 6 km above ground level). To reduce this gap, in the late 1990s weather drones started to be considered for obtaining data from those altitudes. Research has been growing significantly since the 2010s, and weather-drone data may in future be added to numerical weather models. Commerce provides pilot reports along aircraft routes, and ship reports along shipping routes. Research flights using reconnaissance aircraft fly in and around weather systems of interest such as tropical cyclones . Reconnaissance aircraft are also flown over

381-458: A "holy city" where any legitimate ruler of southern Mesopotamia had to be crowned, and the city was also revered by Assyria for these religious reasons. Hammurabi turned what had previously been a minor administrative town into a large, powerful and influential city, extended its rule over the entirety of southern Mesopotamia, and erected a number of buildings. The Amorite-ruled Babylonians, like their predecessor states, engaged in regular trade with

508-420: A 24-hour cable network devoted to national and local weather reports. Some weather channels have started broadcasting on live streaming platforms such as YouTube and Periscope to reach more viewers. The basic idea of numerical weather prediction is to sample the state of the fluid at a given time and use the equations of fluid dynamics and thermodynamics to estimate the state of the fluid at some time in

635-846: A bas-relief temple in Uruk and Kurigalzu I (1415–1390 BC) built a new capital Dur-Kurigalzu named after himself, transferring administrative rule from Babylon. Both of these kings continued to struggle unsuccessfully against the Sealand Dynasty. Karaindash also strengthened diplomatic ties with the Assyrian king Ashur-bel-nisheshu and the Egyptian Pharaoh Thutmose III and protected Babylonian borders with Elam. Kadašman-Ḫarbe I succeeded Karaindash, and briefly invaded Elam before being eventually defeated and ejected by its king Tepti Ahar. He then had to contend with

762-416: A daily average temperature of 65 °F (18 °C). Cooler temperatures force heating degree days (one per degree Fahrenheit), while warmer temperatures force cooling degree days. In winter, severe cold weather can cause a surge in demand as people turn up their heating. Similarly, in summer a surge in demand can be linked with the increased use of air conditioning systems in hot weather. By anticipating

889-470: A difficult technique to use is that there is rarely a perfect analog for an event in the future. Some call this type of forecasting pattern recognition. It remains a useful method of observing rainfall over data voids such as oceans, as well as the forecasting of precipitation amounts and distribution in the future. A similar technique is used in medium range forecasting, which is known as teleconnections, when systems in other locations are used to help pin down

1016-437: A few weather radars to locate precipitation over Algeria's vast territory. Operating these facilities is vital for the safety of the population and the economy . Weather forecasting Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the conditions of the atmosphere for a given location and time. People have attempted to predict the weather informally for millennia and formally since

1143-442: A finite differencing scheme in time and space could be devised, to allow numerical prediction solutions to be found. Richardson envisioned a large auditorium of thousands of people performing the calculations and passing them to others. However, the sheer number of calculations required was too large to be completed without the use of computers, and the size of the grid and time steps led to unrealistic results in deepening systems. It

1270-525: A given day. Since outdoor activities are severely curtailed by heavy rain, snow and wind chill , forecasts can be used to plan activities around these events, and to plan ahead and survive them. Weather forecasting is a part of the economy. For example in 2009, the US spent approximately $ 5.8 billion on it, producing benefits estimated at six times as much. In 650 BC, the Babylonians predicted

1397-408: A line of thunderstorms could indicate the approach of a cold front . Cloud-free skies are indicative of fair weather for the near future. A bar can indicate a coming tropical cyclone. The use of sky cover in weather prediction has led to various weather lore over the centuries. The forecasting of the weather for the following six hours is often referred to as nowcasting. In this time range it

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1524-537: A long history before the emergence of Babylon, with Sumerian civilization emerging in the region c.  5400 BC , and the Akkadian-speakers who would go on to form Akkad, Assyria and Babylonia appearing somewhere between the 35th and 30th century BC. During the 3rd millennium BC, an intimate cultural symbiosis occurred between Sumerian and Akkadian-speakers, which included widespread bilingualism . The influence of Sumerian on Akkadian and vice versa

1651-519: A matter of debate). From c.  5400 BC until the rise of the Akkadian Empire in the 24th century BC, Mesopotamia had been dominated by largely Sumerian cities and city states, such as Ur , Lagash , Uruk , Kish , Isin , Larsa , Adab , Eridu , Gasur , Assur , Hamazi , Akshak , Arbela and Umma , although Semitic Akkadian names began to appear on the king lists of some of these states (such as Eshnunna and Assyria ) between

1778-420: A much reduced Babylon, Samshu-iluna's successor Abi-Eshuh made a vain attempt to recapture the Sealand Dynasty for Babylon, but met defeat at the hands of king Damqi-ilishu II . By the end of his reign Babylonia had shrunk to the small and relatively weak nation it had been upon its foundation, although the city itself was far larger and opulent than the small town it had been prior to the rise of Hammurabi. He

1905-471: A network of 82 staffed weather stations across 6 regional directions: Algiers , Oran , Constantine , Ouargla , Béchar , and Tamanrasset . The service also includes three technical stations in Ksar Chellala , Tiaret , and Assekrem for greenhouse gas observation, which are part of 28 global stations. Additionally, there are over 300 climatological posts, with over half of them being automatic, and

2032-945: A protracted war with the Old Assyrian Empire for control of Mesopotamia and dominance of the Near East. Assyria had extended control over much of the Hurrian and Hattian parts of southeast Anatolia from the 21st century BC, and from the latter part of the 20th century BC had asserted itself over the northeast Levant and central Mesopotamia. After a protracted struggle over decades with the powerful Assyrian kings Shamshi-Adad I and Ishme-Dagan I , Hammurabi forced their successor Mut-Ashkur to pay tribute to Babylon c.  1751 BC , giving Babylonia control over Assyria's centuries-old Hattian and Hurrian colonies in Anatolia. One of Hammurabi's most important and lasting works

2159-469: A range of two weeks or more cannot definitively predict the state of the atmosphere, owing to the chaotic nature of the fluid dynamics equations involved. In numerical models, extremely small errors in initial values double roughly every five days for variables such as temperature and wind velocity. Essentially, a model is a computer program that produces meteorological information for future times at given locations and altitudes. Within any modern model

2286-649: A series of small kingdoms, while the Assyrians reasserted their independence in the north. The states of the south were unable to stem the Amorite advance, and for a time may have relied on their fellow Akkadians in Assyria for protection. King Ilu-shuma ( c.  2008 –1975 BC) of the Old Assyrian period (2025–1750 BC) in a known inscription describes his exploits to the south as follows: The freedom of

2413-996: A short period of civil war in the Assyrian empire, in the years after the death of Tukulti-Ninurta. Meli-Shipak II (1188–1172 BC) seems to have had a peaceful reign. Despite not being able to regain northern Babylonia from Assyria, no further territory was lost, Elam did not threaten, and the Late Bronze Age collapse now affecting the Levant, Canaan , Egypt , the Caucasus , Anatolia, Mediterranean , North Africa , northern Iran and Balkans seemed (initially) to have little impact on Babylonia (or indeed Assyria and Elam). War resumed under subsequent kings such as Marduk-apla-iddina I (1171–1159 BC) and Zababa-shuma-iddin (1158 BC). The long reigning Assyrian king Ashur-dan I (1179–1133 BC) resumed expansionist policies and conquered further parts of northern Babylonia from both kings, and

2540-399: A short time into the future. The equations are then applied to this new atmospheric state to find new rates of change, which predict the atmosphere at a yet further time into the future. This time stepping procedure is continually repeated until the solution reaches the desired forecast time. The length of the time step chosen within the model is related to the distance between the points on

2667-415: A small nation which controlled very little territory, and was overshadowed by neighbouring kingdoms that were both older, larger, and more powerful, such as; Isin, Larsa, Assyria to the north and Elam to the east in ancient Iran. The Elamites occupied huge swathes of southern Mesopotamia, and the early Amorite rulers were largely held in vassalage to Elam. Babylon remained a minor town in a small state until

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2794-526: A specific Hittite king either, Trevor Bryce concludes that there is no doubt that both sources refer to Mursili I and Samsu-ditana . The Hittites, when sacking Babylon, removed the images of the gods Marduk and his consort Zarpanitu from the Esagil temple and they took them to their kingdom. The later inscription of Agum-kakrime , the Kassite king, claims he returned the images; and another later text,

2921-517: A spring freeze. Orange groves can suffer significant damage during frosts and freezes, regardless of their timing. Forecasting of wind, precipitation and humidity is essential for preventing and controlling wildfires . Indices such as the Forest fire weather index and the Haines Index , have been developed to predict the areas more at risk of fire from natural or human causes. Conditions for

3048-411: A surge in demand, utility companies can purchase additional supplies of power or natural gas before the price increases, or in some circumstances, supplies are restricted through the use of brownouts and blackouts . Increasingly, private companies pay for weather forecasts tailored to their needs so that they can increase their profits or avoid large losses. For example, supermarket chains may change

3175-585: Is a set of equations, known as the primitive equations, used to predict the future state of the atmosphere. These equations—along with the ideal gas law —are used to evolve the density , pressure , and potential temperature scalar fields and the velocity vector field of the atmosphere through time. Additional transport equations for pollutants and other aerosols are included in some primitive-equation mesoscale models as well. The equations used are nonlinear partial differential equations, which are impossible to solve exactly through analytical methods, with

3302-444: Is a vast variety of end uses for weather forecasts. Weather warnings are important because they are used to protect lives and property. Forecasts based on temperature and precipitation are important to agriculture, and therefore to traders within commodity markets. Temperature forecasts are used by utility companies to estimate demand over coming days. On an everyday basis, many people use weather forecasts to determine what to wear on

3429-406: Is evident in all areas, from lexical borrowing on a massive scale, to syntactic, morphological, and phonological convergence. This has prompted scholars to refer to Sumerian and Akkadian in the third millennium as a sprachbund . Akkadian gradually replaced Sumerian as the spoken language of Mesopotamia somewhere around the turn of the third and the second millennium BC (the precise timeframe being

3556-424: Is known for a Minute-Cast, which is a minute-by-minute precipitation forecast for the next two hours. In the past, human forecasters were responsible for generating the weather forecast based upon available observations. Today, human input is generally confined to choosing a model based on various parameters, such as model biases and performance. Using a consensus of forecast models, as well as ensemble members of

3683-598: Is not clear precisely when Kassite rule of Babylon began, but the Indo-European Hittites from Anatolia did not remain in Babylonia for long after the sacking of the city, and it is likely the Kassites moved in soon afterwards. Agum II took the throne for the Kassites in 1595 BC, and ruled a state that extended from Iran to the middle Euphrates; The new king retained peaceful relations with Erishum III ,

3810-532: Is now in the Louvre . From before 3000 BC until the reign of Hammurabi, the major cultural and religious center of southern Mesopotamia had been the ancient city of Nippur, where the god Enlil was supreme. Hammurabi transferred this dominance to Babylon, making Marduk supreme in the pantheon of southern Mesopotamia (with the god Ashur , and to some degree Ishtar , remaining the long-dominant deity in northern Mesopotamian Assyria). The city of Babylon became known as

3937-399: Is only feasible in dry weather. Prolonged periods of dryness can ruin cotton, wheat, and corn crops. While corn crops can be ruined by drought, their dried remains can be used as a cattle feed substitute in the form of silage . Frosts and freezes play havoc with crops both during the spring and fall. For example, peach trees in full bloom can have their potential peach crop decimated by

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4064-583: Is possible to forecast smaller features such as individual showers and thunderstorms with reasonable accuracy, as well as other features too small to be resolved by a computer model. A human given the latest radar, satellite and observational data will be able to make a better analysis of the small scale features present and so will be able to make a more accurate forecast for the following few hours. However, there are now expert systems using those data and mesoscale numerical model to make better extrapolation, including evolution of those features in time. Accuweather

4191-567: Is run out to 10 days into the future, while the Global Forecast System model run by the Environmental Modeling Center is run 16 days into the future. The visual output produced by a model solution is known as a prognostic chart , or prog . The raw output is often modified before being presented as the forecast. This can be in the form of statistical techniques to remove known biases in

4318-402: Is still required to pick the best possible model to base the forecast upon, which involves pattern recognition skills, teleconnections , knowledge of model performance, and knowledge of model biases. The inaccuracy of forecasting is due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere; the massive computational power required to solve the equations that describe the atmosphere, the land, and the ocean;

4445-632: The Dynasty IV of Babylon, from Isin , with the first native Akkadian-speaking south Mesopotamian dynasty to rule Babylonia, with Marduk-kabit-ahheshu becoming only the second native Mesopotamian to sit on the throne of Babylon, after the Assyrian king Tukulti-Ninurta I . His dynasty was to remain in power for some 125 years. The new king successfully drove out the Elamites and prevented any possible Kassite revival. Later in his reign he went to war with Assyria, and had some initial success, briefly capturing

4572-615: The Egyptian chronology . Possible dates for the sack of Babylon are: Mursili I , the Hittite king, first conquered Aleppo , capital of Yamhad kingdom to avenge the death of his father, but his main geopolitical target was Babylon. The Mesopotamian Chronicle 40 , written after 1500 BC, mentions briefly the sack of Babylon as: "During the time of Samsu-Ditana , the Hittites marched on Akkad." More details can be found in another source,

4699-569: The Marduk Prophesy , written long after the events, mentions that the image of Marduk was in exile around twenty-four years. After the conquest, Mursili I did not attempt to convert the whole region he had occupied from Aleppo to Babylon as a part of his kingdom; he instead made an alliance with the Kassites , and then a Kassite dynasty was established in Babylonia. The Kassite dynasty was founded by Gandash of Mari. The Kassites, like

4826-568: The New Testament , Jesus is quoted as referring to deciphering and understanding local weather patterns, by saying, "When evening comes, you say, 'It will be fair weather, for the sky is red', and in the morning, 'Today it will be stormy, for the sky is red and overcast.' You know how to interpret the appearance of the sky, but you cannot interpret the signs of the times." In 904 AD, Ibn Wahshiyya 's Nabatean Agriculture , translated into Arabic from an earlier Aramaic work, discussed

4953-466: The Suteans , ancient Semitic-speaking peoples from the southeastern Levant who invaded Babylonia and sacked Uruk. He describes having "annihilated their extensive forces", then constructed fortresses in a mountain region called Ḫiḫi , in the desert to the west (modern Syria ) as security outposts, and "he dug wells and settled people on fertile lands, to strengthen the guard". Kurigalzu I succeeded

5080-535: The Telepinu Proclamation , a Hittite text from around 1520 BC, which states: "And then he [Mursili I] marched to Aleppo, and he destroyed Aleppo and brought captives and possessions of Aleppo to Ḫattuša. Then, however, he marched to Babylon, and he destroyed Babylon, and he defeated the Hurrian troops, and he brought captives and possessions of Babylon to Ḫattuša ." The movement of Mursili's troops

5207-481: The 19th century. Weather forecasts are made by collecting quantitative data about the current state of the atmosphere, land, and ocean and using meteorology to project how the atmosphere will change at a given place. Once calculated manually based mainly upon changes in barometric pressure , current weather conditions, and sky conditions or cloud cover, weather forecasting now relies on computer-based models that take many atmospheric factors into account. Human input

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5334-546: The 29th and 25th centuries BC. Traditionally, the major religious center of all Mesopotamia was the city of Nippur where the god Enlil was supreme, and it would remain so until replaced by Babylon during the reign of Hammurabi in the mid-18th century BC. The Akkadian Empire (2334–2154 BC) saw the Akkadian Semites and Sumerians of Mesopotamia unite under one rule, and the Akkadians fully attain ascendancy over

5461-493: The Akkadians and their children I established. I purified their copper. I established their freedom from the border of the marshes and Ur and Nippur, Awal , and Kish, Der of the goddess Ishtar , as far as the City of ( Ashur ). Past scholars originally extrapolated from this text that it means he defeated the invading Amorites to the south and Elamites to the east, but there is no explicit record of that, and some scholars believe

5588-618: The Amorite and Canaanite city-states to the west, with Babylonian officials or troops sometimes passing to the Levant and Canaan, and Amorite merchants operating freely throughout Mesopotamia. The Babylonian monarchy's western connections remained strong for quite some time. Ammi-Ditana , great-grandson of Hammurabi, still titled himself "king of the land of the Amorites". Ammi-Ditana's father and son also bore Amorite names: Abi-Eshuh and Ammi-Saduqa . Southern Mesopotamia had no natural, defensible boundaries, making it vulnerable to attack. After

5715-557: The Amorite rulers who had preceded them, were not originally native to Mesopotamia. Rather, they had first appeared in the Zagros Mountains of what is today northwestern Iran. The ethnic affiliation of the Kassites is unclear. Still, their language was not Semitic or Indo-European , and is thought to have been either a language isolate or possibly related to the Hurro-Urartian language family of Anatolia, although

5842-473: The Assyrian king Tukulti-Ninurta I (1243–1207 BC) routed his armies, sacked and burned Babylon and set himself up as king, ironically becoming the first native Mesopotamian to rule the Mesopotamian populated state, its previous rulers having all been non-Mesopotamian Amorites and Kassites. Kashtiliash himself was taken to Ashur as a prisoner of war. An Assyrian governor/king named Enlil-nadin-shumi

5969-552: The Assyrian king) in 1333 BC, a usurper named Nazi-Bugaš deposed him, enraging Ashur-uballit I , who invaded and sacked Babylon, slew Nazi-Bugaš, annexed Babylonian territory for the Middle Assyrian Empire, and installed Kurigalzu II (1345–1324 BC) as his vassal ruler of Babylonia. Soon after Arik-den-ili succeeded the throne of Assyria in 1327 BC, Kurigalzu II attacked Assyria in an attempt to reassert Babylonian power. After some impressive initial successes he

6096-482: The Assyrian kings were merely giving preferential trade agreements to the south. These policies, whether military, economic or both, were continued by his successors Erishum I and Ikunum . However, when Sargon I (1920–1881 BC) succeeded as king in Assyria in 1920 BC, he eventually withdrew Assyria from the region, preferring to concentrate on continuing the vigorous expansion of Assyrian colonies in Anatolia at

6223-488: The Elamite capital, the city of Susa, which was sacked. After this a puppet ruler was placed on the Elamite throne, subject to Babylonia. Kurigalzu I maintained friendly relations with Assyria, Egypt and the Hittites throughout his reign. Kadashman-Enlil I (1374–1360 BC) succeeded him, and continued his diplomatic policies. Burna-Buriash II ascended to the throne in 1359 BC, he retained friendly relations with Egypt, but

6350-438: The Elamite ruler Shutruk-Nakhunte eventually conquered most of eastern Babylonia. Enlil-nadin-ahhe (1157–1155 BC) was finally overthrown and the Kassite dynasty ended after Ashur-dan I conquered yet more of northern and central Babylonia, and the equally powerful Shutruk-Nahhunte pushed deep into the heart of Babylonia itself, sacking the city and slaying the king. Poetical works have been found lamenting this disaster. Despite

6477-408: The Elamites from southern Mesopotamia entirely, invading Elam itself. He then systematically conquered southern Mesopotamia, including the cities of Isin, Larsa, Eshnunna, Kish, Lagash , Nippur, Borsippa , Ur, Uruk, Umma, Adab, Sippar , Rapiqum , and Eridu. His conquests gave the region stability after turbulent times, and coalesced the patchwork of small states into a single nation; it is only from

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6604-458: The Hittites under king Mursili I is considered crucial to the various calculations of the early chronology of the ancient Near East , as it is taken as a fixed point in the discussion. Suggestions for its precise date vary by as much as 230 years, corresponding to the uncertainty regarding the length of the "Dark Age" of the much later Late Bronze Age collapse , resulting in the shift of the entire Bronze Age chronology of Mesopotamia with regard to

6731-592: The National Establishment for Meteorological and Aeronautical Exploitation (ENEMA). The mission of the ONM is to collect meteorological data across Algeria and provide short and long-term weather forecasts . It disseminates this information to the general public and specialized users, such as aviation and agriculture , as well as issuing warnings for hazardous conditions. The ONM participates in various international organizations in this field, including

6858-727: The Sumerians and indeed come to dominate much of the ancient Near East . The empire eventually disintegrated due to economic decline, climate change, and civil war, followed by attacks by the language isolate speaking Gutians from the Zagros Mountains to the northeast. Sumer rose up again with the Third Dynasty of Ur ( Neo-Sumerian Empire ) in the late 22nd century BC, and ejected the Gutians from southern Mesopotamia in 2161 BC as suggested by surviving tablets and astronomy simulations. They also seem to have gained ascendancy over much of

6985-518: The WMO. The ONM employs over 1,000 people, including 65% meteorologists and technicians. It is funded through two main sources: the sale of meteorological forecasts to businesses and media, as well as subsidies from the Ministry of Transport. Approximately 85% of the revenues come from aviation forecasts, and the remaining 15% from specialized services or public subsidies. These funds are used to maintain

7112-400: The aviation industry is especially sensitive to the weather, accurate weather forecasting is essential. Fog or exceptionally low ceilings can prevent many aircraft from landing and taking off. Turbulence and icing are also significant in-flight hazards. Thunderstorms are a problem for all aircraft because of severe turbulence due to their updrafts and outflow boundaries , icing due to

7239-542: The city of Babylon in central-southern Mesopotamia (present-day Iraq and parts of Syria and Iran ). It emerged as an Akkadian populated but Amorite -ruled state c.  1894 BC . During the reign of Hammurabi and afterwards, Babylonia was retrospectively called "the country of Akkad" ( māt Akkadī in Akkadian), a deliberate archaism in reference to the previous glory of the Akkadian Empire . It

7366-468: The computational grid, and is chosen to maintain numerical stability . Time steps for global models are on the order of tens of minutes, while time steps for regional models are between one and four minutes. The global models are run at varying times into the future. The Met Office 's Unified Model is run six days into the future, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model

7493-504: The condition of the sky is one of the more important parameters used to forecast weather in mountainous areas. Thickening of cloud cover or the invasion of a higher cloud deck is indicative of rain in the near future. High thin cirrostratus clouds can create halos around the sun or moon , which indicates an approach of a warm front and its associated rain. Morning fog portends fair conditions, as rainy conditions are preceded by wind or clouds that prevent fog formation. The approach of

7620-444: The conditions to expect en route and at their destination. Additionally, airports often change which runway is being used to take advantage of a headwind . This reduces the distance required for takeoff, and eliminates potential crosswinds . Commercial and recreational use of waterways can be limited significantly by wind direction and speed, wave periodicity and heights, tides, and precipitation. These factors can each influence

7747-577: The death of Hammurabi and reverted to a small kingdom centered around the city of Babylon. Like Assyria , the Babylonian state retained the written Akkadian language (the language of its native populace) for official use, despite its Northwest Semitic -speaking Amorite founders and Kassite successors, who spoke a language isolate , not being native Mesopotamians. It retained the Sumerian language for religious use (as did Assyria which also shared

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7874-557: The death of Hammurabi, his empire began to disintegrate rapidly. Under his successor Samsu-iluna (1749–1712 BC) the far south of Mesopotamia was lost to a native Akkadian-speaking king Ilum-ma-ili who ejected the Amorite-ruled Babylonians. The south became the native Sealand Dynasty , remaining free of Babylon for the next 272 years. Both the Babylonians and their Amorite rulers were driven from Assyria to

8001-481: The depth of the troposphere and well into the stratosphere . Data from weather satellites are used in areas where traditional data sources are not available. Compared with similar data from radiosondes, the satellite data has the advantage of global coverage, but at a lower accuracy and resolution. Meteorological radar provide information on precipitation location and intensity, which can be used to estimate precipitation accumulations over time. Additionally, if

8128-400: The development of harmful insects can also be predicted by forecasting the weather. Electricity and gas companies rely on weather forecasts to anticipate demand, which can be strongly affected by the weather. They use the quantity termed the degree day to determine how strong of a use there will be for heating ( heating degree day ) or cooling (cooling degree day). These quantities are based on

8255-582: The development of programmable electronic computers. The first ever daily weather forecasts were published in The Times on August 1, 1861, and the first weather maps were produced later in the same year. In 1911, the Met Office began issuing the first marine weather forecasts via radio transmission. These included gale and storm warnings for areas around Great Britain. In the United States,

8382-409: The error involved in measuring the initial conditions; and an incomplete understanding of atmospheric and related processes. Hence, forecasts become less accurate as the difference between the current time and the time for which the forecast is being made (the range of the forecast) increases. The use of ensembles and model consensus helps narrow the error and provide confidence in the forecast. There

8509-530: The evidence for its genetic affiliation is meager due to the scarcity of extant texts. That said, several Kassite leaders may have borne Indo-European names , and they may have had an Indo-European elite similar to the Mitanni elite that later ruled over the Hurrians of central and eastern Anatolia, while others had Semitic names. The Kassites renamed Babylon Karduniaš and their rule lasted for 576 years,

8636-420: The exception of a few idealized cases. Therefore, numerical methods obtain approximate solutions. Different models use different solution methods: some global models use spectral methods for the horizontal dimensions and finite difference methods for the vertical dimension, while regional and other global models usually use finite-difference methods in all three dimensions. The simplest method of forecasting

8763-535: The expense of the Hurrians and Hattians and the Amorite inhabited Levant , and eventually southern Mesopotamia fell to the Amorites. During the first centuries of what is called the "Amorite period", the most powerful city-states in the south were Isin , Eshnunna and Larsa , together with Assyria in the north. Around 1894 BC, an Amorite chieftain named Sumu-abum appropriated a tract of land which included

8890-718: The first public radio forecasts were made in 1925 by Edward B. "E.B." Rideout, on WEEI , the Edison Electric Illuminating station in Boston. Rideout came from the U.S. Weather Bureau , as did WBZ weather forecaster G. Harold Noyes in 1931. The world's first televised weather forecasts, including the use of weather maps, were experimentally broadcast by the BBC in November 1936. This was brought into practice in 1949, after World War II . George Cowling gave

9017-821: The first weather forecast while being televised in front of the map in 1954. In America, experimental television forecasts were made by James C. Fidler in Cincinnati in either 1940 or 1947 on the DuMont Television Network . In the late 1970s and early 1980s, John Coleman , the first weatherman for the American Broadcasting Company (ABC)'s Good Morning America , pioneered the use of on-screen weather satellite data and computer graphics for television forecasts. In 1982, Coleman partnered with Landmark Communications CEO Frank Batten to launch The Weather Channel (TWC),

9144-566: The future. The main inputs from country-based weather services are surface observations from automated weather stations at ground level over land and from weather buoys at sea. The World Meteorological Organization acts to standardize the instrumentation, observing practices and timing of these observations worldwide. Stations either report hourly in METAR reports, or every six hours in SYNOP reports. Sites launch radiosondes , which rise through

9271-428: The generations to produce weather lore . However, not all of these predictions prove reliable, and many of them have since been found not to stand up to rigorous statistical testing. It was not until the invention of the electric telegraph in 1835 that the modern age of weather forecasting began. Before that, the fastest that distant weather reports could travel was around 160 kilometres per day (100 mi/d), but

9398-646: The globe, to provide accurate and timely weather and oceanographic information to submarines, ships and Fleet Air Arm aircraft. A mobile unit in the Royal Air Force , working with the Met Office, forecasts the weather for regions in which British and allied armed forces are deployed. A group based at Camp Bastion used to provide forecasts for the British armed forces in Afghanistan . Similar to

9525-417: The heavy precipitation, as well as large hail , strong winds, and lightning, all of which can cause severe damage to an aircraft in flight. Volcanic ash is also a significant problem for aviation, as aircraft can lose engine power within ash clouds. On a day-to-day basis airliners are routed to take advantage of the jet stream tailwind to improve fuel efficiency. Aircrews are briefed prior to takeoff on

9652-568: The intensity changes of such storms relative to physics-based models. Such models use no physics-based atmosphere modeling or large language models . Instead, they learn purely from data such as ERA5. These models typically require far less compute than physics-based models. Microsoft 's Aurora system offers global 10-day weather and 5-day air pollution ( CO 2 , NO , NO 2 , SO 2 , O 3 , and particulates) forecasts with claimed accuracy similar to physics-based models, but at orders-of-magnitude lower cost. Aurora

9779-629: The location of another system within the surrounding regime. An example of teleconnections are by using El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related phenomena. Initial attempts to use artificial intelligence began in the 2010s. Huawei 's Pangu-Weather model, Google 's GraphCast, WindBorne's WeatherMesh model, Nvidia 's FourCastNet, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ' Artificial Intelligence/Integrated Forecasting System, or AIFS all appeared in 2022–2023. In 2024, AIFS started to publish real-time forecasts, showing specific skill at predicting hurricane tracks, but lower-performing on

9906-489: The longest dynasty in Babylonian history. This new foreign dominion offers a striking analogy to the roughly contemporary rule of the Semitic Hyksos in ancient Egypt . Most divine attributes ascribed to the Amorite kings of Babylonia disappeared at this time; the title "god" was never given to a Kassite sovereign. Babylon continued to be the capital of the kingdom and one of the holy cities of western Asia, where

10033-593: The loss of territory, general military weakness, and evident reduction in literacy and culture, the Kassite dynasty was the longest-lived dynasty of Babylon, lasting until 1155 BC, when Babylon was conquered by Shutruk-Nakhunte of Elam, and reconquered a few years later by the Nebuchadnezzar I , part of the larger Late Bronze Age collapse. The Elamites did not remain in control of Babylonia long, instead entering into an ultimately unsuccessful war with Assyria, allowing Marduk-kabit-ahheshu (1155–1139 BC) to establish

10160-538: The loss of the Royal Charter inspired FitzRoy to develop charts to allow predictions to be made, which he called "forecasting the weather" , thus coining the term "weather forecast". Fifteen land stations were established to use the telegraph to transmit to him daily reports of weather at set times leading to the first gale warning service. His warning service for shipping was initiated in February 1861, with

10287-616: The media, including radio, using emergency systems as the Emergency Alert System , which break into regular programming. The low temperature forecast for the current day is calculated using the lowest temperature found between 7   pm that evening through 7   am the following morning. So, in short, today's forecasted low is most likely tomorrow's low temperature. There are a number of sectors with their own specific needs for weather forecasts and specialist services are provided to these users as given below: Because

10414-431: The mentioned military branches have their initial enlisted meteorology technical training at Keesler Air Force Base . Military and civilian forecasters actively cooperate in analyzing, creating and critiquing weather forecast products. Babylonia Babylonia ( / ˌ b æ b ɪ ˈ l oʊ n i ə / ; Akkadian : 𒆳𒆍𒀭𒊏𒆠 , māt Akkadī ) was an ancient Akkadian-speaking state and cultural area based in

10541-442: The model to add information to the forecast. While increasing accuracy of forecasting models implies that humans may no longer be needed in the forecasting process at some point in the future, there is currently still a need for human intervention. The analog technique is a complex way of making a forecast, requiring the forecaster to remember a previous weather event that is expected to be mimicked by an upcoming event. What makes it

10668-404: The model's mathematical algorithms (usually an evenly spaced grid). The data are then used in the model as the starting point for a forecast. Commonly, the set of equations used to predict the physics and dynamics of the atmosphere are called primitive equations . These are initialized from the analysis data and rates of change are determined. The rates of change predict the state of the atmosphere

10795-452: The model, or of adjustment to take into account consensus among other numerical weather forecasts. MOS or model output statistics is a technique used to interpret numerical model output and produce site-specific guidance. This guidance is presented in coded numerical form, and can be obtained for nearly all National Weather Service reporting stations in the United States. As proposed by Edward Lorenz in 1963, long range forecasts, those made at

10922-443: The more rapid dissemination of warnings, a national observational network was developed, which could then be used to provide synoptic analyses. To shorten detailed weather reports into more affordable telegrams, senders encoded weather information in telegraphic code , such as the one developed by the U.S. Army Signal Corps . Instruments to continuously record variations in meteorological parameters using photography were supplied to

11049-477: The mountains of what is today northwest Iran. Babylon was then attacked by the Indo-European-speaking , Anatolia-based Hittites in 1595 BC. Shamshu-Ditana was overthrown following the "sack of Babylon" by the Hittite king Mursili I . The Hittites did not remain for long, but the destruction wrought by them finally enabled their Kassite allies to gain control. The date of the sack of Babylon by

11176-474: The national weather services issue in the case that severe or hazardous weather is expected. This is done to protect life and property. Some of the most commonly known of severe weather advisories are the severe thunderstorm and tornado warning , as well as the severe thunderstorm and tornado watch . Other forms of these advisories include winter weather, high wind, flood , tropical cyclone , and fog. Severe weather advisories and alerts are broadcast through

11303-647: The native Mesopotamian king of Assyria, but successfully went to war with the Hittite Empire , and twenty-four years after, the Hittites took the sacred statue of Marduk , he recovered it and declared the god equal to the Kassite deity Shuqamuna . Burnaburiash I succeeded him and drew up a peace treaty with the Assyrian king Puzur-Ashur III , and had a largely uneventful reign, as did his successor Kashtiliash III . The Sealand Dynasty of southern Mesopotamia remained independent of Babylonia and like Assyria

11430-428: The north by an Assyrian-Akkadian governor named Puzur-Sin c.  1740 BC , who regarded king Mut-Ashkur as both a foreign Amorite and a former lackey of Babylon. After six years of civil war in Assyria, a native king named Adasi seized power c.  1735 BC , and went on to appropriate former Babylonian and Amorite territory in central Mesopotamia, as did his successor Bel-bani . Amorite rule survived in

11557-516: The observing stations from Kew Observatory – these cameras had been invented by Francis Ronalds in 1845 and his barograph had earlier been used by FitzRoy. To convey accurate information, it soon became necessary to have a standard vocabulary describing clouds; this was achieved by means of a series of classifications first achieved by Luke Howard in 1802, and standardized in the International Cloud Atlas of 1896. It

11684-439: The open oceans during the cold season into systems that cause significant uncertainty in forecast guidance, or are expected to be of high impact three–seven days into the future over the downstream continent. Models are initialized using this observed data. The irregularly spaced observations are processed by data assimilation and objective analysis methods, which perform quality control and obtain values at locations usable by

11811-639: The press at the time, their work gained scientific credence, was accepted by the Royal Navy, and formed the basis for all of today's weather forecasting knowledge. Beaufort developed the Wind Force Scale and Weather Notation coding, which he was to use in his journals for the remainder of his life. He also promoted the development of reliable tide tables around British shores, and with his friend William Whewell , expanded weather record-keeping at 200 British coast guard stations. Robert FitzRoy

11938-499: The pressure tendency (the change of pressure over time) have been used in forecasting since the late 19th century. The larger the change in pressure, especially if more than 3.5  hPa (2.6  mmHg ), the larger the change in weather can be expected. If the pressure drop is rapid, a low pressure system is approaching, and there is a greater chance of rain. Rapid pressure rises are associated with improving weather conditions, such as clearing skies. Along with pressure tendency,

12065-407: The priests of the ancient Mesopotamian religion were all-powerful, and the only place where the right to inheritance of the short lived old Babylonian empire could be conferred. Babylonia experienced short periods of relative power, but in general proved to be relatively weak under the long rule of the Kassites, and spent long periods under Assyrian and Elamite domination and interference. It

12192-400: The primary outlets for presenting weather forecast information to the public. In addition, some cities had weather beacons . Increasingly, the internet is being used due to the vast amount of specific information that can be found. In all cases, these outlets update their forecasts on a regular basis. A major part of modern weather forecasting is the severe weather alerts and advisories that

12319-404: The private sector, military weather forecasters present weather conditions to the war fighter community. Military weather forecasters provide pre-flight and in-flight weather briefs to pilots and provide real time resource protection services for military installations. Naval forecasters cover the waters and ship weather forecasts. The United States Navy provides a special service for itself and

12446-516: The public to protect life and property and maintain commercial interests. Knowledge of what the end user needs from a weather forecast must be taken into account to present the information in a useful and understandable way. Examples include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 's National Weather Service (NWS) and Environment Canada 's Meteorological Service (MSC). Traditionally, newspaper, television, and radio have been

12573-461: The reign of its sixth Amorite ruler, Hammurabi , during 1792–1750 BC (or c.  1728 –1686 BC in the short chronology ). He conducted major building work in Babylon, expanding it from a small town into a great city worthy of kingship. A very efficient ruler, he established a bureaucracy, with taxation and centralized government. Hammurabi freed Babylon from Elamite dominance, and indeed drove

12700-804: The rest of the federal government by issuing forecasts for tropical cyclones across the Pacific and Indian Oceans through its Joint Typhoon Warning Center . Within the United States, the 557th Weather Wing provides weather forecasting for the Air Force and the Army. Air Force forecasters cover air operations in both wartime and peacetime and provide Army support; United States Coast Guard marine science technicians provide ship forecasts for ice breakers and various other operations within their realm; and Marine forecasters provide support for ground- and air-based United States Marine Corps operations. All four of

12827-408: The resurgent Middle Assyrian Empire (1365–1050 BC) to the north was now encroaching into northern Babylonia, and as a symbol of peace, the Babylonian king took the daughter of the powerful Assyrian king Ashur-uballit I in marriage. He also maintained friendly relations with Suppiluliuma I , ruler of the Hittite Empire . He was succeeded by Kara-ḫardaš (who was half Assyrian, and the grandson of

12954-476: The safety of marine transit. Consequently, a variety of codes have been established to efficiently transmit detailed marine weather forecasts to vessel pilots via radio, for example the MAFOR (marine forecast). Typical weather forecasts can be received at sea through the use of RTTY , Navtex and Radiofax . Farmers rely on weather forecasts to decide what work to do on any particular day. For example, drying hay

13081-430: The same Mesopotamian religion as Babylonia), but already by the time Babylon was founded, this was no longer a spoken language, having been wholly subsumed by Akkadian. The earlier Akkadian and Sumerian traditions played a major role in the descendant Babylonian and Assyrian culture, and the region would remain an important cultural center, even under its protracted periods of outside rule. Mesopotamia had already enjoyed

13208-546: The stocks on their shelves in anticipation of different consumer spending habits in different weather conditions. Weather forecasts can be used to invest in the commodity market, such as futures in oranges, corn, soybeans, and oil. The British Royal Navy , working with the Met Office , has its own specialist branch of weather observers and forecasters, as part of the Hydrographic and Meteorological (HM) specialisation, who monitor and forecast operational conditions across

13335-644: The territory of the Akkadian speaking kings of Assyria in northern Mesopotamia for a time. Followed by the collapse of the Sumerian "Ur-III" dynasty at the hands of the Elamites in 2002 BC, the Amorites ("Westerners"), a foreign Northwest Semitic-speaking people, began to migrate into southern Mesopotamia from the northern Levant , gradually gaining control over most of southern Mesopotamia, where they formed

13462-452: The then relatively small city of Babylon from the neighbouring minor city-state of Kazallu , of which it had initially been a territory, turning his newly acquired lands into a state in its own right. His reign was concerned with establishing statehood amongst a sea of other minor city-states and kingdoms in the region. However, Sumu-abum appears never to have bothered to give himself the title of King of Babylon , suggesting that Babylon itself

13589-428: The throne, and soon came into conflict with Elam, to the east. When Ḫur-batila , the successor of Tepti Ahar took the throne of Elam, he began raiding the Babylonia, taunting Kurigalzu to do battle with him at Dūr-Šulgi . Kurigalzu launched a campaign which resulted in the abject defeat and capture of Ḫur-batila, who appears in no other inscriptions. He went on to conquer the eastern lands of Elam. This took his army to

13716-439: The time of Hammurabi that southern Mesopotamia acquired the name Babylonia . Hammurabi turned his disciplined armies eastwards and invaded the region which a thousand years later became Iran , conquering Elam , Gutium , Lullubi , Turukku and Kassites . To the west, he conquered the Amorite states of the Levant (modern Syria and Jordan ) including the powerful kingdoms of Mari and Yamhad . Hammurabi then entered into

13843-412: The use of telegraph communications . The first daily weather forecasts were published in The Times in 1861. In the following year a system was introduced of hoisting storm warning cones at the principal ports when a gale was expected. The "Weather Book" which FitzRoy published in 1863 was far in advance of the scientific opinion of the time. As the electric telegraph network expanded, allowing for

13970-435: The various models, can help reduce forecast error. However, regardless how small the average error becomes with any individual system, large errors within any particular piece of guidance are still possible on any given model run. Humans are required to interpret the model data into weather forecasts that are understandable to the end user. Humans can use knowledge of local effects that may be too small in size to be resolved by

14097-475: The weather forecasting of atmospheric changes and signs from the planetary astral alterations; signs of rain based on observation of the lunar phases ; and weather forecasts based on the movement of winds. Ancient weather forecasting methods usually relied on observed patterns of events, also termed pattern recognition. For example, it was observed that if the sunset was particularly red, the following day often brought fair weather. This experience accumulated over

14224-526: The weather from cloud patterns as well as astrology . In about 350 BC, Aristotle described weather patterns in Meteorologica . Later, Theophrastus compiled a book on weather forecasting, called the Book of Signs . Chinese weather prediction lore extends at least as far back as 300 BC, which was also around the same time ancient Indian astronomers developed weather-prediction methods. In

14351-453: The weather, persistence, relies upon today's conditions to forecast tomorrow's. This can be valid when the weather achieves a steady state, such as during the summer season in the tropics. This method strongly depends upon the presence of a stagnant weather pattern. Therefore, when in a fluctuating pattern, it becomes inaccurate. It can be useful in both short- and long-range forecast|long range forecasts. Measurements of barometric pressure and

14478-519: Was appointed in 1854 as chief of a new department within the Board of Trade to deal with the collection of weather data at sea as a service to mariners . This was the forerunner of the modern Meteorological Office . All ship captains were tasked with collating data on the weather and computing it, with the use of tested instruments that were loaned for this purpose. A storm in October 1859 that caused

14605-529: Was around 800 km from the conquered Aleppo to reach the Euphrates, located to the east, skirting around Assyria, and then to the south along the course of the river to reach finally Babylon. His conquest of Babylon brought to an end the dynasty of Hammurabi, and although the Hittite text, Telipinu Proclamation, does not mention Samsu-ditana, and the Babylonian Chronicle 20 does not mention

14732-442: Was followed by Ammi-Ditana and then Ammi-Saduqa , both of whom were in too weak a position to make any attempt to regain the many territories lost after the death of Hammurabi, contenting themselves with peaceful building projects in Babylon itself. Samsu-Ditana was to be the last Amorite ruler of Babylon. Early in his reign he came under pressure from the Kassites , a people speaking an apparent language isolate originating in

14859-470: Was in native Akkadian-speaking hands. Ulamburiash managed to attack it and conquered parts of the land from Ea-gamil , a king with a distinctly Sumerian name, around 1450 BC, whereupon Ea-Gamil fled to his allies in Elam. The Sealand Dynasty region still remained independent, and the Kassite king seems to have been unable to finally conquer it. Ulamburiash began making treaties with ancient Egypt , which then

14986-461: Was later found, through numerical analysis, that this was due to numerical instability . The first computerised weather forecast was performed by a team composed of American meteorologists Jule Charney , Philip Duncan Thompson , Larry Gates , and Norwegian meteorologist Ragnar Fjørtoft , applied mathematician John von Neumann , and ENIAC programmer Klara Dan von Neumann . Practical use of numerical weather prediction began in 1955, spurred by

15113-640: Was more typically 60–120 kilometres per day (40–75 mi/day) (whether by land or by sea). By the late 1840s, the telegraph allowed reports of weather conditions from a wide area to be received almost instantaneously, allowing forecasts to be made from knowledge of weather conditions further upwind . The two men credited with the birth of forecasting as a science were an officer of the Royal Navy Francis Beaufort and his protégé Robert FitzRoy . Both were influential men in British naval and governmental circles, and though ridiculed in

15240-532: Was not until the 20th century that advances in the understanding of atmospheric physics led to the foundation of modern numerical weather prediction . In 1922, English scientist Lewis Fry Richardson published "Weather Prediction By Numerical Process", after finding notes and derivations he worked on as an ambulance driver in World War I. He described therein how small terms in the prognostic fluid dynamics equations governing atmospheric flow could be neglected, and

15367-566: Was often involved in rivalry with the older ethno-linguistically related state of Assyria in the north of Mesopotamia and Elam to the east in Ancient Iran . Babylonia briefly became the major power in the region after Hammurabi ( fl. c.  1792 –1752 BC middle chronology, or c.  1696 –1654 BC, short chronology ) created a short-lived empire, succeeding the earlier Akkadian Empire, Third Dynasty of Ur , and Old Assyrian Empire . The Babylonian Empire rapidly fell apart after

15494-538: Was placed on the throne to rule as viceroy to Tukulti-Ninurta I, and Kadashman-Harbe II and Adad-shuma-iddina succeeded as Assyrian governor/kings,also subject to Tukulti-Ninurta I until 1216 BC. Babylon did not begin to recover until late in the reign of Adad-shuma-usur (1216–1189 BC), as he too remained a vassal of Assyria until 1193 BC. However, he was able to prevent the Assyrian king Enlil-kudurri-usur from retaking Babylonia, which, apart from its northern reaches, had mostly shrugged off Assyrian domination during

15621-526: Was ruling southern Canaan , and Assyria to the north. Agum III also campaigned against the Sealand Dynasty, finally wholly conquering the far south of Mesopotamia for Babylon, destroying its capital Dur-Enlil in the process. From there Agum III extended farther south still, invading what was many centuries later to be called the Arabian Peninsula or Arabia , and conquering the pre-Arab state of Dilmun (in modern Bahrain ). Karaindash built

15748-463: Was still only a minor town or city, and not worthy of kingship. He was followed by Sumu-la-El , Sabium , and Apil-Sin , each of whom ruled in the same vague manner as Sumu-abum, with no reference to kingship of Babylon itself being made in any written records of the time. Sin-Muballit was the first of these Amorite rulers to be regarded officially as a king of Babylon , and then on only one single clay tablet. Under these kings, Babylonia remained

15875-527: Was the compilation of the Babylonian law code , which improved the much earlier codes of Sumer , Akkad and Assyria. This was made by order of Hammurabi after the expulsion of the Elamites and the settlement of his kingdom. In 1901, a copy of the Code of Hammurabi was discovered on a stele by Jacques de Morgan and Jean-Vincent Scheil at Susa in Elam, where it had later been taken as plunder. That copy

16002-660: Was trained on more than a million hours of data from six weather/climate models. Most end users of forecasts are members of the general public. Thunderstorms can create strong winds and dangerous lightning strikes that can lead to deaths, power outages, and widespread hail damage. Heavy snow or rain can bring transportation and commerce to a stand-still, as well as cause flooding in low-lying areas. Excessive heat or cold waves can sicken or kill those with inadequate utilities, and droughts can impact water usage and destroy vegetation. Several countries employ government agencies to provide forecasts and watches/warnings/advisories to

16129-518: Was ultimately defeated, and lost yet more territory to Assyria. Between 1307 BC and 1232 BC his successors, such as Nazi-Maruttash , Kadashman-Turgu , Kadashman-Enlil II , Kudur-Enlil and Shagarakti-Shuriash , allied with the empires of the Hittites and the Mitanni (who were both also losing swathes of territory to the resurgent Assyrians), in a failed attempt to stop Assyrian expansion. This expansion, nevertheless, continued unchecked. Kashtiliash IV 's (1242–1235 BC) reign ended catastrophically as

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