164-519: Organizations: Green New Deal ( GND ) proposals call for public policy to address climate change , along with achieving other social aims like job creation, economic growth, and reducing economic inequality . The name refers to the New Deal , a set of changes and public works projects undertaken by President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1933-1935 in response to the Great Depression in
328-620: A "helpful counter to ... fearmongering about the bleak, hamburger-free world climate activists are allegedly plotting to create with a Green New Deal." In April 2020 the European Parliament called to include the European Green Deal in the recovery program from the COVID-19 pandemic . The proposals were criticised for falling short of the goal of ending fossil fuels, or being sufficient for a green recovery after
492-569: A "just transition", counteracting previous systemic injustices that had disproportionally hurt vulnerable communities. Commentators have called for future Green New Deal-type programs to also emphasize environmental justice, both in the United States and overseas. Other commentators, while agreeing on the need for the incorporation of justice, have cautioned against excessive emphases on identity politics , or on bundling in too many economically progressive measures. They fear including too much in
656-486: A 5-page summary of their plan entitled "Mission: Possible: The Green Climate Action Plan". On continental Europe, the European Spring coalition campaigned under the banner of a "Green New Deal" for the 2019 EU elections . In December 2019, the newly elected European Commission under Von der Leyen presented a set of policy proposals under the name European Green Deal . Compared to the United States plan, it has
820-617: A GND package will make it harder to achieve broad based majority support. The Australian Greens have advocated for a "Green Plan", similar to the Green New Deal, since 2009. Deputy Leader Christine Milne discussed the idea on the ABC 's panel discussion program Q&A on February 19, 2009, and it was the subject of a major national conference of the Australian Greens in 2009. In early May 2019, with rising concerns about
984-527: A GND, both in the US and internationally, in the recovery program for the COVID-19 pandemic . In December 2020, however, the United Nations released a report saying that a high proportion of the world's COVID-19 recovery stimulus was not going towards clean energy. UN secretary-general António Guterres declared the world's governments were "doubling down" on fossil fuels . As of 2021, commentators such as
1148-574: A Green New Deal in the UK. The left-wing campaigning group Momentum also wish to influence the Labour Party's manifesto to include a Green New Deal. In September 2019, the Labour party committed to a Green New Deal at its 2019 annual conference . This included a target to decarbonise by 2030. Polling undertook by YouGov in late October 2019 found that 56% of British adults support the goal of making
1312-743: A Green New Deal initiative include the Sunrise Movement , 350.org , Greenpeace , Sierra Club , Extinction Rebellion and Friends of the Earth . A Sunrise Movement protest on behalf of a Green New Deal at the Capitol Hill offices of Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer on December 10, 2018 featured Lennox Yearwood and speakers as young as age 7, resulting in 143 arrests. Euronews , the pan-European TV network, displayed video of youth with signs saying "Green New Deal," "No excuses", and "Do your job" in its "No Comment" section. On December 14, 2018,
1476-590: A Green New Deal platform in 2012 and 2016. A prominent 2019 attempt to get legislation passed for a Green New Deal was sponsored by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA) during the 116th United States Congress , though it failed to advance in the Senate. In the European Union , a 2019 proposal from the European Commission for a European Green Deal was supported by
1640-431: A Green New Deal. On the same day, freshman congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez launched a resolution to create a committee on the Green New Deal. Following this, several candidates came out supporting a "Green New Deal", including Deb Haaland , Rashida Tlaib , Ilhan Omar , and Antonio Delgado . They were joined in the following weeks by Reps. John Lewis , Earl Blumenauer , Carolyn Maloney , and José Serrano . By
1804-510: A broader sense also includes previous long-term changes to Earth's climate. The current rise in global temperatures is driven by human activities , especially fossil fuel burning since the Industrial Revolution . Fossil fuel use, deforestation , and some agricultural and industrial practices release greenhouse gases . These gases absorb some of the heat that the Earth radiates after it warms from sunlight , warming
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#17327728523581968-654: A committee dedicated to climate, what powers such a committee might be granted, and whether the committee would be specifically tasked with developing a Green New Deal. Incoming House committee chairs Frank Pallone and Peter DeFazio indicated a preference for handling these matters in the House Energy and Commerce Committee and the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee . (Writing in Gentleman's Quarterly , Jay Willis responded that despite
2132-478: A crisis of ideas in mainstream economics and within the economics profession, and call for a reshaping of both the economy, economic theory and the economics profession. They argue that such a reshaping should include new advances within feminist economics and ecological economics that take as their starting point the socially responsible, sensible and accountable subject in creating an economy and economic theories that fully acknowledge care for each other as well as
2296-590: A decadal timescale. Other changes are caused by an imbalance of energy from external forcings . Examples of these include changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases , solar luminosity , volcanic eruptions, and variations in the Earth's orbit around the Sun. To determine the human contribution to climate change, unique "fingerprints" for all potential causes are developed and compared with both observed patterns and known internal climate variability . For example, solar forcing—whose fingerprint involves warming
2460-463: A focus on using public programs. Since 2006, the Green New Deal has been included in the platforms of multiple Green Party candidates, such as Howie Hawkins ' gubernatorial campaigns in 2010 , 2014 , and 2018 , and Jill Stein's 2012 and 2016 presidential campaigns. In the 2014 Congressional race in California , Independent candidate for CA-33 and author Marianne Williamson endorsed
2624-596: A fourteen-page resolution for their Green New Deal (House Resolution 109, closely related to S. Res. 59). Their proposal advocated transitioning the United States to 100% renewable, zero-emission energy sources, along with investment in electric cars and high-speed rail systems , and implementing the " social cost of carbon " that had been part of the Obama administration's plan for addressing climate change within 10 years. Besides increasing state-sponsored jobs, this Green New Deal also sought to address poverty by aiming much of
2788-470: A grassroots campaign called Labour for a Green New Deal . The aim of the group is to push the party to adopt a radical Green New Deal to transform the UK economy, tackle inequality and address the escalating climate crisis. It also wants a region-specific green jobs guarantee , a significant expansion of public ownership and democratic control of industry, as well as mass investment in public infrastructure. The group states that they got their inspiration from
2952-507: A group of over 300 local elected officials from 40 states issued a letter endorsing a Green New Deal approach. That same day, a poll released by Yale Program on Climate Change Communication indicated that although 82% of registered voters had not heard of the "Green New Deal," it had strong bi-partisan support among voters. A non-partisan description of the general concepts behind a Green New Deal resulted in 40% of respondents saying they "strongly support", and 41% saying they "somewhat support"
3116-406: A less ambitious decarbonisation timeline, with an aim of carbon neutrality in 2050. The policy proposal involves every sector in the economy and the option of a border adjustment mechanism, a 'carbon tariff', is on the table to prevent carbon leakage from outside countries. A pilot program for a four-day workweek, under development by Spain's Valencian Regional Government , has been described as
3280-542: A lot of light to being dark after the ice has melted, they start absorbing more heat . Local black carbon deposits on snow and ice also contribute to Arctic warming. Arctic surface temperatures are increasing between three and four times faster than in the rest of the world. Melting of ice sheets near the poles weakens both the Atlantic and the Antarctic limb of thermohaline circulation , which further changes
3444-412: A marked increase in temperature. Ongoing changes in climate have had no precedent for several thousand years. Multiple independent datasets all show worldwide increases in surface temperature, at a rate of around 0.2 °C per decade. The 2014–2023 decade warmed to an average 1.19 °C [1.06–1.30 °C] compared to the pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900). Not every single year was warmer than
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#17327728523583608-490: A minimum, there's a little 'froth' [in the U.S. housing market]...it's hard not to see that there are a lot of local bubbles". The Economist , writing at the same time, went further, saying, "[T]he worldwide rise in house prices is the biggest bubble in history". Real estate bubbles are (by definition of the word "bubble") followed by a price decrease (also known as a housing price crash ) that can result in many owners holding negative equity (a mortgage debt higher than
3772-408: A physical climate model. These models simulate how population, economic growth , and energy use affect—and interact with—the physical climate. With this information, these models can produce scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions. This is then used as input for physical climate models and carbon cycle models to predict how atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases might change. Depending on
3936-611: A platform position that some candidates are taking to indicate that they want the American government to devote the country to preparing for climate change as fully as Franklin Delano Roosevelt once did to reinvigorating the economy after the Great Depression ." A week after the 2018 midterm elections, climate justice group Sunrise Movement organized a protest in Nancy Pelosi 's office calling on Pelosi to support
4100-572: A resolution preventing CFTC from regulating derivatives for another six months — when Born's term of office would expire. Ultimately, it was the collapse of a specific kind of derivative, the mortgage-backed security , that triggered the economic crisis of 2008. Paul Krugman wrote in 2009 that the run on the shadow banking system was the fundamental cause of the crisis. "As the shadow banking system expanded to rival or even surpass conventional banking in importance, politicians and government officials should have realised that they were re-creating
4264-461: A result of climate change. Global sea level is rising as a consequence of thermal expansion and the melting of glaciers and ice sheets . Sea level rise has increased over time, reaching 4.8 cm per decade between 2014 and 2023. Over the 21st century, the IPCC projects 32–62 cm of sea level rise under a low emission scenario, 44–76 cm under an intermediate one and 65–101 cm under
4428-474: A result. The World Health Organization calls climate change one of the biggest threats to global health in the 21st century. Societies and ecosystems will experience more severe risks without action to limit warming . Adapting to climate change through efforts like flood control measures or drought-resistant crops partially reduces climate change risks, although some limits to adaptation have already been reached. Poorer communities are responsible for
4592-499: A series of challenges for a Green New Deal from the perspective of his writings from coal country in Appalachia . Biggers wrote that then-presidential-candidate Obama "should shatter these artificial racial boundaries by proposing a New 'Green' Deal to revamp the region and bridge a growing chasm between bitterly divided Democrats , and call for an end to mountaintop removal policies that have led to impoverishment and ruin in
4756-704: A sharp drop in international trade , rising unemployment and slumping commodity prices. Several economists predicted that recovery might not appear until 2011 and that the recession would be the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Economist Paul Krugman once commented on this as seemingly the beginning of "a second Great Depression". Governments and central banks responded with fiscal policy and monetary policy initiatives to stimulate national economies and reduce financial system risks. The recession renewed interest in Keynesian economic ideas on how to combat recessionary conditions. Economists advise that
4920-417: A small share of global emissions , yet have the least ability to adapt and are most vulnerable to climate change . Many climate change impacts have been observed in the first decades of the 21st century, with 2023 the warmest on record at +1.48 °C (2.66 °F) since regular tracking began in 1850. Additional warming will increase these impacts and can trigger tipping points , such as melting all of
5084-510: A tool for taking excessive risks. Examples of vulnerabilities in the public sector included: statutory gaps and conflicts between regulators; ineffective use of regulatory authority; and ineffective crisis management capabilities. Bernanke also discussed " Too big to fail " institutions, monetary policy, and trade deficits. There are several "narratives" attempting to place the causes of the recession into context, with overlapping elements. Five such narratives include: Underlying narratives #1–3
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5248-548: A very high emission scenario. Marine ice sheet instability processes in Antarctica may add substantially to these values, including the possibility of a 2-meter sea level rise by 2100 under high emissions. Climate change has led to decades of shrinking and thinning of the Arctic sea ice . While ice-free summers are expected to be rare at 1.5 °C degrees of warming, they are set to occur once every three to ten years at
5412-519: A warming level of 2 °C. Higher atmospheric CO 2 concentrations cause more CO 2 to dissolve in the oceans, which is making them more acidic . Because oxygen is less soluble in warmer water, its concentrations in the ocean are decreasing , and dead zones are expanding. Greater degrees of global warming increase the risk of passing through ' tipping points '—thresholds beyond which certain major impacts can no longer be avoided even if temperatures return to their previous state. For instance,
5576-709: A whole new clean power industry to spur our economy into the 21st century. Friedman expanded upon the idea in his September 2008 book Hot, Flat, and Crowded . This approach was taken up in Britain by the Green New Deal Group , which published its eponymous report on July 21, 2008. The concept was further popularized and put on a wider footing when the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) began to promote it internationally. In early 2008, author Jeff Biggers launched
5740-462: A windmill in your yard or some solar panels on your roof, bless your heart. But we will only green the world when we change the very nature of the electricity grid – moving it away from dirty coal or oil to clean coal and renewables. And that is a huge industrial project – much bigger than anyone has told you. Finally, like the New Deal, if we undertake the green version, it has the potential to create
5904-413: Is a hypothesis that growing income inequality and wage stagnation encouraged families to increase their household debt to maintain their desired living standard, fueling the bubble. Further, this greater share of income flowing to the top increased the political power of business interests, who used that power to deregulate or limit regulation of the shadow banking system. Narrative #5 challenges
6068-564: Is an estimated total sea level rise of 2.3 metres per degree Celsius (4.2 ft/°F) after 2000 years. Oceanic CO 2 uptake is slow enough that ocean acidification will also continue for hundreds to thousands of years. Deep oceans (below 2,000 metres (6,600 ft)) are also already committed to losing over 10% of their dissolved oxygen by the warming which occurred to date. Further, the West Antarctic ice sheet appears committed to practically irreversible melting, which would increase
6232-711: Is determined by modelling the carbon cycle and climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases. According to UNEP , global warming can be kept below 1.5 °C with a 50% chance if emissions after 2023 do not exceed 200 gigatonnes of CO 2 . This corresponds to around 4 years of current emissions. To stay under 2.0 °C, the carbon budget is 900 gigatonnes of CO 2 , or 16 years of current emissions. The climate system experiences various cycles on its own which can last for years, decades or even centuries. For example, El Niño events cause short-term spikes in surface temperature while La Niña events cause short term cooling. Their relative frequency can affect global temperature trends on
6396-399: Is independent of where greenhouse gases are emitted, because the gases persist long enough to diffuse across the planet. Since the pre-industrial period, the average surface temperature over land regions has increased almost twice as fast as the global average surface temperature. This is because oceans lose more heat by evaporation and oceans can store a lot of heat . The thermal energy in
6560-450: Is primarily attributed to sulfate aerosols produced by the combustion of fossil fuels with heavy sulfur concentrations like coal and bunker fuel . Smaller contributions come from black carbon (from combustion of fossil fuels and biomass), and from dust. Globally, aerosols have been declining since 1990 due to pollution controls, meaning that they no longer mask greenhouse gas warming as much. Aerosols also have indirect effects on
6724-444: Is radiating into space. Warming reduces average snow cover and forces the retreat of glaciers . At the same time, warming also causes greater evaporation from the oceans , leading to more atmospheric humidity , more and heavier precipitation . Plants are flowering earlier in spring, and thousands of animal species have been permanently moving to cooler areas. Different regions of the world warm at different rates . The pattern
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6888-516: Is shaped by feedbacks, which either amplify or dampen the change. Self-reinforcing or positive feedbacks increase the response, while balancing or negative feedbacks reduce it. The main reinforcing feedbacks are the water-vapour feedback , the ice–albedo feedback , and the net effect of clouds. The primary balancing mechanism is radiative cooling , as Earth's surface gives off more heat to space in response to rising temperature. In addition to temperature feedbacks, there are feedbacks in
7052-407: Is the major reason why different climate models project different magnitudes of warming for a given amount of emissions. A climate model is a representation of the physical, chemical and biological processes that affect the climate system. Models include natural processes like changes in the Earth's orbit, historical changes in the Sun's activity, and volcanic forcing. Models are used to estimate
7216-466: Is the timing. Subprime lending increased from around 10% of mortgage origination historically to about 20% only from 2004 to 2006, with housing prices peaking in 2006. Blaming affordable housing regulations established in the 1990s for a sudden spike in subprime origination is problematic at best. A more proximate government action to the sudden rise in subprime lending was the SEC relaxing lending standards for
7380-417: Is unclear. A related phenomenon driven by climate change is woody plant encroachment , affecting up to 500 million hectares globally. Climate change has contributed to the expansion of drier climate zones, such as the expansion of deserts in the subtropics . The size and speed of global warming is making abrupt changes in ecosystems more likely. Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in
7544-515: The American Enterprise Institute , which advocates for private enterprise and limited government, have asserted that private lenders were encouraged to relax lending standards by government affordable housing policies. They cite The Housing and Community Development Act of 1992, which initially required that 30 percent or more of Fannie's and Freddie's loan purchases be related to affordable housing. The legislation gave HUD
7708-511: The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and irreversible damage to key ecosystems like the Amazon rainforest and coral reefs can unfold in a matter of decades. The long-term effects of climate change on oceans include further ice melt, ocean warming , sea level rise, ocean acidification and ocean deoxygenation. The timescale of long-term impacts are centuries to millennia due to CO 2 's long atmospheric lifetime. The result
7872-492: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission , put forth a policy paper asking for feedback from regulators, lobbyists, and legislators on the question of whether derivatives should be reported, sold through a central facility, or whether capital requirements should be required of their buyers. Greenspan, Rubin, and Levitt pressured her to withdraw the paper and Greenspan persuaded Congress to pass
8036-666: The Council on Foreign Relations have noted that in addition to climate-friendly policies being enacted in the U.S. by Joe Biden , other major economies such as China, India, and the European Union have also begun "implementing some of the policies envisioned by the Green New Deal." The 2019 United States congressional resolution Recognizing the duty of the Federal Government to create a Green New Deal introduced by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ed Markey advocated
8200-661: The Earth's energy budget . Sulfate aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei and lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets. They also reduce the growth of raindrops , which makes clouds more reflective to incoming sunlight. Indirect effects of aerosols are the largest uncertainty in radiative forcing . While aerosols typically limit global warming by reflecting sunlight, black carbon in soot that falls on snow or ice can contribute to global warming. Not only does this increase
8364-759: The European Council , and in January 2020, by the European Parliament as well. Throughout the 1970s and 1990s, an economic policy to move the United States economy away from nonrenewable energy was developed by activists in the labor and the environmental movements. An early use of the phrase "Green New Deal" was by journalist Thomas Friedman . He argued in favor of the idea in The New York Times and The New York Times Magazine . In January 2007, Friedman wrote: If you have put
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#17327728523588528-573: The Greenland ice sheet is already melting, but if global warming reaches levels between 1.7 °C and 2.3 °C, its melting will continue until it fully disappears. If the warming is later reduced to 1.5 °C or less, it will still lose a lot more ice than if the warming was never allowed to reach the threshold in the first place. While the ice sheets would melt over millennia, other tipping points would occur faster and give societies less time to respond. The collapse of major ocean currents like
8692-840: The Greenland ice sheet . Under the 2015 Paris Agreement , nations collectively agreed to keep warming "well under 2 °C". However, with pledges made under the Agreement, global warming would still reach about 2.8 °C (5.0 °F) by the end of the century. Limiting warming to 1.5 °C would require halving emissions by 2030 and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. Fossil fuel use can be phased out by conserving energy and switching to energy sources that do not produce significant carbon pollution. These energy sources include wind , solar , hydro , and nuclear power . Cleanly generated electricity can replace fossil fuels for powering transportation , heating buildings , and running industrial processes. Carbon can also be removed from
8856-676: The IMF criteria for being a global recession only in the single calendar year 2009. That IMF definition requires a decline in annual real world GDP per‑capita . Despite the fact that quarterly data are being used as recession definition criteria by all G20 members , representing 85% of the world GDP , the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has decided—in the absence of a complete data set—not to declare/measure global recessions according to quarterly GDP data. The seasonally adjusted PPP ‑weighted real GDP for
9020-635: The Industrial Revolution , naturally-occurring amounts of greenhouse gases caused the air near the surface to be about 33 °C warmer than it would have been in their absence. Human activity since the Industrial Revolution, mainly extracting and burning fossil fuels ( coal , oil , and natural gas ), has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In 2022, the concentrations of CO 2 and methane had increased by about 50% and 164%, respectively, since 1750. These CO 2 levels are higher than they have been at any time during
9184-645: The Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming (2007–2011), which had proven effective in developing a 2009 bill for cap-and-trade legislation . Proposals for the House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis did not contain "Green New Deal" language and lacked the powers desired by Green New Deal proponents, such as the ability to subpoena documents or depose witnesses. Representative Kathy Castor of Florida
9348-469: The Sunrise Movement and the work that congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has done in the US. Group members have met with Zack Exley , co-founder of the progressive group Justice Democrats , to learn from the experiences that he and Ocasio-Cortez have had in working for the Green New Deal campaign in the US. On April 30, former Labour Party leader Ed Miliband joined Caroline Lucas and former South Thanet Conservative MP Laura Sandys in calling for
9512-518: The World Economic Forum , 14.5 million more deaths are expected due to climate change by 2050. 30% of the global population currently live in areas where extreme heat and humidity are already associated with excess deaths. By 2100, 50% to 75% of the global population would live in such areas. While total crop yields have been increasing in the past 50 years due to agricultural improvements, climate change has already decreased
9676-414: The carbon cycle . While plants on land and in the ocean absorb most excess emissions of CO 2 every year, that CO 2 is returned to the atmosphere when biological matter is digested, burns, or decays. Land-surface carbon sink processes, such as carbon fixation in the soil and photosynthesis, remove about 29% of annual global CO 2 emissions. The ocean has absorbed 20 to 30% of emitted CO 2 over
9840-402: The climate system . Solar irradiance has been measured directly by satellites , and indirect measurements are available from the early 1600s onwards. Since 1880, there has been no upward trend in the amount of the Sun's energy reaching the Earth, in contrast to the warming of the lower atmosphere (the troposphere ). The upper atmosphere (the stratosphere ) would also be warming if the Sun
10004-971: The extinction of many species. The oceans have heated more slowly than the land, but plants and animals in the ocean have migrated towards the colder poles faster than species on land. Just as on land, heat waves in the ocean occur more frequently due to climate change, harming a wide range of organisms such as corals, kelp , and seabirds . Ocean acidification makes it harder for marine calcifying organisms such as mussels , barnacles and corals to produce shells and skeletons ; and heatwaves have bleached coral reefs . Harmful algal blooms enhanced by climate change and eutrophication lower oxygen levels, disrupt food webs and cause great loss of marine life. Coastal ecosystems are under particular stress. Almost half of global wetlands have disappeared due to climate change and other human impacts. Plants have come under increased stress from damage by insects. The effects of climate change are impacting humans everywhere in
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#173277285235810168-432: The socioeconomic scenario and the mitigation scenario, models produce atmospheric CO 2 concentrations that range widely between 380 and 1400 ppm. The environmental effects of climate change are broad and far-reaching, affecting oceans , ice, and weather. Changes may occur gradually or rapidly. Evidence for these effects comes from studying climate change in the past, from modelling, and from modern observations. Since
10332-531: The subprime mortgage crisis . The combination of banks being unable to provide funds to businesses, and homeowners paying down debt rather than borrowing and spending, resulted in the Great Recession that began in the U.S. officially in December 2007 and lasted until June 2009, thus extending over 19 months. As with most other recessions, it appears that no known formal theoretical or empirical model
10496-405: The 18th century and 1970 there was little net warming, as the warming impact of greenhouse gas emissions was offset by cooling from sulfur dioxide emissions. Sulfur dioxide causes acid rain , but it also produces sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere, which reflect sunlight and cause global dimming . After 1970, the increasing accumulation of greenhouse gases and controls on sulfur pollution led to
10660-612: The 1950s, droughts and heat waves have appeared simultaneously with increasing frequency. Extremely wet or dry events within the monsoon period have increased in India and East Asia. Monsoonal precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere has increased since 1980. The rainfall rate and intensity of hurricanes and typhoons is likely increasing , and the geographic range likely expanding poleward in response to climate warming. Frequency of tropical cyclones has not increased as
10824-500: The 1980s, the terms global warming and climate change became more common, often being used interchangeably. Scientifically, global warming refers only to increased surface warming, while climate change describes both global warming and its effects on Earth's climate system , such as precipitation changes. Climate change can also be used more broadly to include changes to the climate that have happened throughout Earth's history. Global warming —used as early as 1975 —became
10988-429: The 19th and early 20th centuries, the current banking panic is a wholesale panic, not a retail panic. In the earlier episodes, depositors ran to their banks and demanded cash in exchange for their checking accounts. Unable to meet those demands, the banking system became insolvent. The current panic involved financial firms "running" on other financial firms by not renewing sale and repurchase agreements (repo) or increasing
11152-416: The 19th century. Yet, over the past 30-plus years, we permitted the growth of a shadow banking system – opaque and laden with short term debt – that rivaled the size of the traditional banking system. Key components of the market – for example, the multitrillion-dollar repo lending market, off-balance-sheet entities, and the use of over-the-counter derivatives – were hidden from view, without
11316-440: The Arctic is forcing many species to relocate or become extinct . Even if efforts to minimize future warming are successful, some effects will continue for centuries. These include ocean heating , ocean acidification and sea level rise . Climate change threatens people with increased flooding , extreme heat, increased food and water scarcity, more disease, and economic loss . Human migration and conflict can also be
11480-435: The Arctic is another major feedback, this reduces the reflectivity of the Earth's surface in the region and accelerates Arctic warming . This additional warming also contributes to permafrost thawing, which releases methane and CO 2 into the atmosphere. Around half of human-caused CO 2 emissions have been absorbed by land plants and by the oceans. This fraction is not static and if future CO 2 emissions decrease,
11644-545: The CO 2 released by the chemical reactions for making cement , steel , aluminum , and fertilizer . Methane emissions come from livestock , manure, rice cultivation , landfills, wastewater, and coal mining , as well as oil and gas extraction . Nitrous oxide emissions largely come from the microbial decomposition of fertilizer . While methane only lasts in the atmosphere for an average of 12 years, CO 2 lasts much longer. The Earth's surface absorbs CO 2 as part of
11808-596: The COVID-19 pandemic. In its place, it has been proposed that the EU enacts a "Green New Deal for Europe", which includes more investment, and changes the legal regulation that enables global warming from coal, oil, and gas to continue. In July 2021, the European Commission released its " Fit for 55 " legislation package, which contains important guidelines for the future of the automotive industry; all new cars on
11972-604: The Earth will be able to absorb up to around 70%. If they increase substantially, it'll still absorb more carbon than now, but the overall fraction will decrease to below 40%. This is because climate change increases droughts and heat waves that eventually inhibit plant growth on land, and soils will release more carbon from dead plants when they are warmer . The rate at which oceans absorb atmospheric carbon will be lowered as they become more acidic and experience changes in thermohaline circulation and phytoplankton distribution. Uncertainty over feedbacks, particularly cloud cover,
12136-598: The European market must be zero-emission vehicles from 2035. According to European Commissioner for Climate Action Frans Timmermans , "the best answer" to the 2021 global energy crisis is "to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels." In 2020, after the Democratic Party won an absolute majority in the National Assembly, the leadership of the country began to advance a Green New Deal. It includes: In
12300-544: The FCIC Republican minority dissenting report also concluded that U.S. housing policies were not a robust explanation for a wider global housing bubble. The hypothesis that a primary cause of the crisis was U.S. government housing policy requiring banks to make risky loans has been widely disputed, with Paul Krugman referring to it as "imaginary history". One of the other challenges with blaming government regulations for essentially forcing banks to make risky loans
12464-533: The Federal Reserve has been widely discussed, the main point of controversy remains the lowering of the Federal funds rate to 1% for more than a year, which, according to Austrian theorists , injected huge amounts of "easy" credit-based money into the financial system and created an unsustainable economic boom. There is an argument that Greenspan's actions in the years 2002–2004 were actually motivated by
12628-416: The Federal Reserve. Further, American International Group (AIG) had insured mortgage-backed and other securities but was not required to maintain sufficient reserves to pay its obligations when debtors defaulted on these securities. AIG was contractually required to post additional collateral with many creditors and counter-parties, touching off controversy when over $ 100 billion of U.S. taxpayer money
12792-634: The G20‑;zone, however, is a good indicator for the world GDP, and it was measured to have suffered a direct quarter on quarter decline during the three quarters from Q3‑2008 until Q1‑2009, which more accurately mark when the recession took place at the global level. According to the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research (the official arbiter of U.S. recessions) the recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009, and thus extended over eighteen months. The years leading up to
12956-607: The Green New Deal in her campaign platform. A "Green New Deal" wing began to emerge in the Democratic Party after the November 2018 elections . A possible program in 2018 for a "Green New Deal" assembled by the think tank Data for Progress was described as "pairing labor programs with measures to combat the climate crisis ." A November 2018 article in Vogue stated, "There isn't just one Green New Deal yet. For now, it's
13120-753: The Summit on Financial Markets and the World Economy," dated November 15, 2008, leaders of the Group of 20 cited the following causes: During a period of strong global growth, growing capital flows, and prolonged stability earlier this decade, market participants sought higher yields without an adequate appreciation of the risks and failed to exercise proper due diligence. At the same time, weak underwriting standards, unsound risk management practices, increasingly complex and opaque financial products, and consequent excessive leverage combined to create vulnerabilities in
13284-625: The UK carbon neutral by 2030 or earlier. In July 2020, while the UK government promised a " green recovery " from the COVID-19 pandemic , this was criticised as being insufficient, and lacking changes to regulation that enabled coal, oil, and gas pollution to continue. An alternative "Green Recovery Act", widely endorsed by politicians and the media, was published by an academic and think tank group that would target nine fields of law reform, on transport, energy generation, agriculture, fossil fuels, local government, international agreement, finance and corporate governance, employment, and investment. This has
13448-583: The UK, the Green New Deal Group and the New Economics Foundation produced the A Green New Deal report asking for a Green New Deal as a way out of the Great Recession , demanding a reform of the financial and tax sectors and a revolution of the energy sector in the country. Also, Green MP for Brighton Pavilion , Caroline Lucas , raised the idea during an economic debate in 2008. In March 2019, Labour Party members launched
13612-449: The US, from $ 106,591 to $ 68,839 between 2005 and 2011. The US Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission , composed of six Democratic and four Republican appointees, reported its majority findings in January 2011. It concluded that "the crisis was avoidable and was caused by: There were two Republican dissenting FCIC reports. One of them, signed by three Republican appointees, concluded that there were multiple causes. In his separate dissent to
13776-516: The United States and Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein proposed a "Green New Deal" beginning in 2012 . A Green New Deal remains officially part of the platform of the Green Party of the United States. By 2019, international calls for a Green New Deal had already become more prominent. This reflected the popular support the GND had received in the US in late 2018, growing recognition of
13940-555: The United States . The Green New Deal combines Roosevelt's economic approach with modern ideas such as renewable energy and resource efficiency . Since the early 2000s, and especially since 2018, proposals for a "Green New Deal" had arisen both in the United States and internationally. The first U.S. politician to run on a Green New Deal platform was Howie Hawkins of the Green Party when he ran for governor of New York in 2010. Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein ran on
14104-483: The United States, and 21% in Denmark. Household defaults, underwater mortgages (where the loan balance exceeds the house value), foreclosures, and fire sales are now endemic to a number of economies. Household deleveraging by paying off debts or defaulting on them has begun in some countries. It has been most pronounced in the United States, where about two-thirds of the debt reduction reflects defaults." The onset of
14268-441: The absorption of sunlight, it also increases melting and sea-level rise. Limiting new black carbon deposits in the Arctic could reduce global warming by 0.2 °C by 2050. The effect of decreasing sulfur content of fuel oil for ships since 2020 is estimated to cause an additional 0.05 °C increase in global mean temperature by 2050. As the Sun is the Earth's primary energy source, changes in incoming sunlight directly affect
14432-513: The academic definition, the recession ended in the United States in June or July 2009. Journalist Robert Kuttner has argued that 'The Great Recession' is a misnomer. According to Kuttner, "recessions are mild dips in the business cycle that are either self-correcting or soon cured by modest fiscal or monetary stimulus. Because of the continuing deflationary trap, it would be more accurate to call this decade's stagnant economy The Lesser Depression or The Great Deflation." The Great Recession met
14596-411: The atmosphere , for instance by increasing forest cover and farming with methods that capture carbon in soil . Before the 1980s it was unclear whether the warming effect of increased greenhouse gases was stronger than the cooling effect of airborne particulates in air pollution . Scientists used the term inadvertent climate modification to refer to human impacts on the climate at this time. In
14760-452: The atmosphere. volcanic CO 2 emissions are more persistent, but they are equivalent to less than 1% of current human-caused CO 2 emissions. Volcanic activity still represents the single largest natural impact (forcing) on temperature in the industrial era. Yet, like the other natural forcings, it has had negligible impacts on global temperature trends since the Industrial Revolution. The climate system's response to an initial forcing
14924-464: The bailout measures started under the Bush administration and continued during his administration as completed and mostly profitable as of December 2014 . As of January 2018 , bailout funds had been fully recovered by the government, when interest on loans is taken into consideration. A total of $ 626B was invested, loaned, or granted due to various bailout measures, while $ 390B had been returned to
15088-528: The bailouts. In 2008, TARP allocated $ 426.4 billion to various major financial institutions. However, the US collected $ 441.7 billion in return from these loans in 2010, recording a profit of $ 15.3 billion. Nonetheless, there was a political shift from the Democratic party. Examples include the rise of the Tea Party and the loss of Democratic majorities in subsequent elections. President Obama declared
15252-411: The best efforts of Pallone and De Fazio over many years, "the planet's prognosis has failed to improve," providing "pretty compelling evidence that it is time for legislators to consider taking a different approach.") In contrast, Representative Ro Khanna thought that creating a Select Committee specifically dedicated to a Green New Deal would be a "very commonsense idea", based on the recent example of
15416-454: The biggest threats to global health in the 21st century. Scientists have warned about the irreversible harms it poses. Extreme weather events affect public health, and food and water security . Temperature extremes lead to increased illness and death. Climate change increases the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. It can affect transmission of infectious diseases , such as dengue fever and malaria . According to
15580-540: The carbon cycle, such as the fertilizing effect of CO 2 on plant growth. Feedbacks are expected to trend in a positive direction as greenhouse gas emissions continue, raising climate sensitivity. These feedback processes alter the pace of global warming. For instance, warmer air can hold more moisture in the form of water vapour , which is itself a potent greenhouse gas. Warmer air can also make clouds higher and thinner, and therefore more insulating, increasing climate warming. The reduction of snow cover and sea ice in
15744-551: The climate cycled through ice ages . One of the hotter periods was the Last Interglacial , around 125,000 years ago, where temperatures were between 0.5 °C and 1.5 °C warmer than before the start of global warming. This period saw sea levels 5 to 10 metres higher than today. The most recent glacial maximum 20,000 years ago was some 5–7 °C colder. This period has sea levels that were over 125 metres (410 ft) lower than today. Temperatures stabilized in
15908-499: The coal fields." Biggers followed up with other Green New Deal proposals over the next four years. Global carbon dioxide emissions by country in 2023: In 2009, the economist Edward Barbier authored the United Nations’ Global Green New Deal , which was a strategy for greening the global economic recovery after the Great Recession . He further elaborated on this strategy in a 2010 book. The Green Party of
16072-453: The crisis were characterized by an exorbitant rise in asset prices and associated boom in economic demand. Further, the U.S. shadow banking system (i.e., non-depository financial institutions such as investment banks) had grown to rival the depository system yet was not subject to the same regulatory oversight, making it vulnerable to a bank run . US mortgage-backed securities , which had risks that were hard to assess, were marketed around
16236-668: The crisis) and vulnerabilities (i.e., structural weaknesses in the financial system, regulation and supervision) that amplified the shocks. Examples of triggers included: losses on subprime mortgage securities that began in 2007 and a run on the shadow banking system that began in mid-2007, which adversely affected the functioning of money markets. Examples of vulnerabilities in the private sector included: financial institution dependence on unstable sources of short-term funding such as repurchase agreements or Repos; deficiencies in corporate risk management; excessive use of leverage (borrowing to invest); and inappropriate usage of derivatives as
16400-684: The current interglacial period beginning 11,700 years ago . This period also saw the start of agriculture. Historical patterns of warming and cooling, like the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age , did not occur at the same time across different regions. Temperatures may have reached as high as those of the late 20th century in a limited set of regions. Climate information for that period comes from climate proxies , such as trees and ice cores . Around 1850 thermometer records began to provide global coverage. Between
16564-442: The current value of the property). Several sources have noted the failure of the US government to supervise or even require transparency of the financial instruments known as derivatives . Derivatives such as credit default swaps (CDSs) were unregulated or barely regulated. Michael Lewis noted CDSs enabled speculators to stack bets on the same mortgage securities. This is analogous to allowing many persons to buy insurance on
16728-403: The degree of warming future emissions will cause when accounting for the strength of climate feedbacks . Models also predict the circulation of the oceans, the annual cycle of the seasons, and the flows of carbon between the land surface and the atmosphere. The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate current or past climates. Past models have underestimated
16892-427: The destroyed trees release CO 2 , and are not replaced by new trees, removing that carbon sink . Between 2001 and 2018, 27% of deforestation was from permanent clearing to enable agricultural expansion for crops and livestock. Another 24% has been lost to temporary clearing under the shifting cultivation agricultural systems. 26% was due to logging for wood and derived products, and wildfires have accounted for
17056-401: The distribution of heat and precipitation around the globe. The World Meteorological Organization estimates there is an 80% chance that global temperatures will exceed 1.5 °C warming for at least one year between 2024 and 2028. The chance of the 5-year average being above 1.5 °C is almost half. The IPCC expects the 20-year average global temperature to exceed +1.5 °C in
17220-444: The dominant direct influence on temperature from land use change. Thus, land use change to date is estimated to have a slight cooling effect. Air pollution, in the form of aerosols, affects the climate on a large scale. Aerosols scatter and absorb solar radiation. From 1961 to 1990, a gradual reduction in the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface was observed. This phenomenon is popularly known as global dimming , and
17384-523: The downturn. In advanced economies, during the five years preceding 2007, the ratio of household debt to income rose by an average of 39 percentage points, to 138 percent. In Denmark, Iceland, Ireland, the Netherlands, and Norway, debt peaked at more than 200 percent of household income. A surge in household debt to historic highs also occurred in emerging economies such as Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, and Lithuania. The concurrent boom in both house prices and
17548-610: The early 2030s. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (2021) included projections that by 2100 global warming is very likely to reach 1.0–1.8 °C under a scenario with very low emissions of greenhouse gases , 2.1–3.5 °C under an intermediate emissions scenario , or 3.3–5.7 °C under a very high emissions scenario . The warming will continue past 2100 in the intermediate and high emission scenarios, with future projections of global surface temperatures by year 2300 being similar to millions of years ago. The remaining carbon budget for staying beneath certain temperature increases
17712-619: The economic crisis took most people by surprise. A 2009 paper identifies twelve economists and commentators who, between 2000 and 2006, predicted a recession based on the collapse of the then-booming housing market in the United States: Dean Baker , Wynne Godley , Fred Harrison , Michael Hudson , Eric Janszen , Med Jones Steve Keen , Jakob Brøchner Madsen , Jens Kjaer Sørensen, Kurt Richebächer , Nouriel Roubini , Peter Schiff , and Robert Shiller . By 2007, real estate bubbles were still under way in many parts of
17876-405: The economic headwinds that slowed the recovery: On the political front, widespread anger at banking bailouts and stimulus measures (begun by President George W. Bush and continued or expanded by President Obama ) with few consequences for banking leadership, were a factor in driving the country politically rightward starting in 2010. The Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) was the largest of
18040-823: The emissions continue to increase for the rest of century, then over 9 million climate-related deaths would occur annually by 2100. Economic damages due to climate change may be severe and there is a chance of disastrous consequences. Severe impacts are expected in South-East Asia and sub-Saharan Africa , where most of the local inhabitants are dependent upon natural and agricultural resources. Heat stress can prevent outdoor labourers from working. If warming reaches 4 °C then labour capacity in those regions could be reduced by 30 to 50%. The World Bank estimates that between 2016 and 2030, climate change could drive over 120 million people into extreme poverty without adaptation. Great Recession The Great Recession
18204-569: The end of November, eighteen Democratic members of Congress were co-sponsoring a proposed House Select Committee on a Green New Deal, and incoming representatives Ayanna Pressley and Joe Neguse had announced their support. Draft text would task this committee with a "'detailed national, industrial, economic mobilization plan' capable of making the U.S. economy 'carbon neutral' while promoting 'economic and environmental justice and equality,'" to be released in early 2020, with draft legislation for implementation within 90 days. Organizations supporting
18368-430: The entire atmosphere—is ruled out because only the lower atmosphere has warmed. Atmospheric aerosols produce a smaller, cooling effect. Other drivers, such as changes in albedo , are less impactful. Greenhouse gases are transparent to sunlight , and thus allow it to pass through the atmosphere to heat the Earth's surface. The Earth radiates it as heat , and greenhouse gases absorb a portion of it. This absorption slows
18532-471: The fall of Lehman Brothers on September 15, 2008, a major panic broke out on the inter-bank loan market. There was the equivalent of a bank run on the shadow banking system , resulting in many large and well established investment banks and commercial banks in the United States and Europe suffering huge losses and even facing bankruptcy, resulting in massive public financial assistance (government bailouts). The global recession that followed resulted in
18696-462: The financial system, along with a series of triggering events that began with the bursting of the United States housing bubble in 2005–2012. When housing prices fell and homeowners began to abandon their mortgages, the value of mortgage-backed securities held by investment banks declined in 2007–2008, causing several to collapse or be bailed out in September 2008. This 2007–2008 phase was called
18860-454: The following recovery weaker. Robert Reich claims the amount of debt in the US economy can be traced to economic inequality , assuming that middle-class wages remained stagnant while wealth concentrated at the top, and households "pull equity from their homes and overload on debt to maintain living standards". The IMF reported in April 2012: "Household debt soared in the years leading up to
19024-604: The global climate system has grown with only brief pauses since at least 1970, and over 90% of this extra energy has been stored in the ocean . The rest has heated the atmosphere , melted ice, and warmed the continents. The Northern Hemisphere and the North Pole have warmed much faster than the South Pole and Southern Hemisphere . The Northern Hemisphere not only has much more land, but also more seasonal snow cover and sea ice . As these surfaces flip from reflecting
19188-704: The global warming threat resulting from recent extreme weather events, the Greta effect and the IPCC 1.5 °C report . In addition to activity within conventional national & multilateral politics, there has been support for a Green New Deal within city diplomacy . In October 2019, the C40 committed to supporting a Global Green New Deal , announcing there will be determined action from all its 94 cities, with 30 cities having already peaked their emissions and progressing rapidly towards net-zero. There were further proposals to include
19352-522: The goal of establishing duties on all public bodies and regulators to end use of all coal, oil and gas "as fast as technologically practicable", with strict exceptions if there are not yet technical alternatives. In 2006, a Green New Deal was created by the Green New Deal Task Force as a plan for one hundred percent clean, renewable energy by 2030 utilizing a carbon tax , a jobs guarantee , free college, single-payer healthcare , and
19516-507: The idea. On January 10, 2019, over 600 organizations submitted a letter to Congress declaring support for policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This includes phasing out fossil fuel extraction and ending fossil fuel subsidies , transitioning to 100% clean renewable energy by 2035, expanding public transportation, and strict emission reductions rather than reliance on carbon emission trading. On February 7, 2019, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Edward Markey released
19680-432: The improvements in "frontline and vulnerable communities" which include poor and disadvantaged people. The resolution included calls for universal health care , increased minimum wages, and preventing monopolies . According to The Washington Post (February 11, 2019), the resolution called for a "10-year national mobilization" whose primary goals would be: Various perspectives emerged in late 2018 as to whether to form
19844-473: The inflow of investment dollars required to fund the U.S. trade deficit was a major cause of the housing bubble and financial crisis: "The trade deficit, less than 1% of GDP in the early 1990s, hit 6% in 2006. That deficit was financed by inflows of foreign savings, in particular from East Asia and the Middle East. Much of that money went into dodgy mortgages to buy overvalued houses, and the financial crisis
20008-541: The kind of financial vulnerability that made the Great Depression possible – and they should have responded by extending regulations and the financial safety net to cover these new institutions. Influential figures should have proclaimed a simple rule: anything that does what a bank does, anything that has to be rescued in crises the way banks are, should be regulated like a bank." He referred to this lack of controls as "malign neglect". During 2008, three of
20172-568: The largest U.S. investment banks either went bankrupt ( Lehman Brothers ) or were sold at fire sale prices to other banks ( Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch ). The investment banks were not subject to the more stringent regulations applied to depository banks. These failures exacerbated the instability in the global financial system. The remaining two investment banks, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs , potentially facing failure, opted to become commercial banks, thereby subjecting themselves to more stringent regulation but receiving access to credit via
20336-572: The last 14 million years. Concentrations of methane are far higher than they were over the last 800,000 years. Global human-caused greenhouse gas emissions in 2019 were equivalent to 59 billion tonnes of CO 2 . Of these emissions, 75% was CO 2 , 18% was methane , 4% was nitrous oxide, and 2% was fluorinated gases . CO 2 emissions primarily come from burning fossil fuels to provide energy for transport , manufacturing, heating , and electricity. Additional CO 2 emissions come from deforestation and industrial processes , which include
20500-436: The last two decades. CO 2 is only removed from the atmosphere for the long term when it is stored in the Earth's crust, which is a process that can take millions of years to complete. Around 30% of Earth's land area is largely unusable for humans ( glaciers , deserts , etc.), 26% is forests , 10% is shrubland and 34% is agricultural land . Deforestation is the main land use change contributor to global warming, as
20664-441: The last: internal climate variability processes can make any year 0.2 °C warmer or colder than the average. From 1998 to 2013, negative phases of two such processes, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) caused a short slower period of warming called the " global warming hiatus ". After the "hiatus", the opposite occurred, with years like 2023 exhibiting temperatures well above even
20828-608: The lower atmosphere. Carbon dioxide , the primary greenhouse gas driving global warming, has grown by about 50% and is at levels not seen for millions of years. Climate change has an increasingly large impact on the environment . Deserts are expanding , while heat waves and wildfires are becoming more common. Amplified warming in the Arctic has contributed to thawing permafrost , retreat of glaciers and sea ice decline . Higher temperatures are also causing more intense storms , droughts, and other weather extremes . Rapid environmental change in mountains , coral reefs , and
20992-590: The main headline is that all sorts of poor countries became kind of rich, making things like TVs and selling us oil. China, India, Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia made a lot of money and banked it." Describing the crisis in Europe, Paul Krugman wrote in February 2012 that: "What we're basically looking at, then, is a balance of payments problem, in which capital flooded south after the creation of the euro, leading to overvaluation in southern Europe." Another narrative about
21156-466: The majority and minority opinions of the FCIC, Commissioner Peter J. Wallison of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) primarily blamed U.S. housing policy, including the actions of Fannie and Freddie , for the crisis. He wrote: "When the bubble began to deflate in mid-2007, the low quality and high risk loans engendered by government policies failed in unprecedented numbers." In its "Declaration of
21320-413: The more popular term after NASA climate scientist James Hansen used it in his 1988 testimony in the U.S. Senate . Since the 2000s, climate change has increased usage. Various scientists, politicians and media may use the terms climate crisis or climate emergency to talk about climate change, and may use the term global heating instead of global warming . Over the last few million years
21484-563: The need for urgent global environmental action to reduce potentially catastrophic effects of climate change, a non-partisan coalition of nearly 70 groups launched the Pact for a Green New Deal ( New Deal vert au Canada in French). With press conferences in Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver, the coalition called for fossil fuel emissions to be halved by 2030. On May 16, 2019 the Green Party released
21648-662: The need to take the U.S. economy out of the early 2000s recession caused by the bursting of the dot-com bubble : although by doing so he did not avert the crisis, but only postponed it. Another narrative focuses on high levels of private debt in the US economy. USA household debt as a percentage of annual disposable personal income was 127% at the end of 2007, versus 77% in 1990. Faced with increasing mortgage payments as their adjustable rate mortgage payments increased, households began to default in record numbers, rendering mortgage-backed securities worthless. High private debt levels also impact growth by making recessions deeper and
21812-544: The obligation and defaulted; U.S. taxpayers paid over $ 100 billion to global financial institutions to honor AIG obligations, generating considerable outrage. A 2008 investigative article in The Washington Post found leading government officials at the time (Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan , Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin , and SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt ) vehemently opposed any regulation of derivatives. In 1998, Brooksley E. Born , head of
21976-487: The origin has been focused on the respective parts played by public monetary policy (notably in the US) and by the practices of private financial institutions. In the U.S., mortgage funding was unusually decentralised, opaque, and competitive, and it is believed that competition between lenders for revenue and market share contributed to declining underwriting standards and risky lending. While Alan Greenspan's role as Chairman of
22140-530: The planet. Though no one knew they were in it at the time, the Great Recession had a significant economic and political impact on the United States. While the recession technically lasted from December 2007 – June 2009 (the nominal GDP trough), many important economic variables did not regain pre-recession (November or Q4 2007) levels until 2011–2016. For example, real GDP fell $ 650 billion (4.3%) and did not recover its $ 15 trillion pre-recession level until Q3 2011. Household net worth, which reflects
22304-522: The popular claim (narrative #4) that subprime borrowers with shoddy credit caused the crisis by buying homes they couldn't afford. This narrative is supported by new research showing that the biggest growth of mortgage debt during the U.S. housing boom came from those with good credit scores in the middle and top of the credit score distribution—and that these borrowers accounted for a disproportionate share of defaults. The Economist wrote in July 2012 that
22468-526: The power to set future requirements. These rose to 42 percent in 1995 and 50 percent in 2000, and by 2008 a 56 percent minimum was established. However, the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC) Democratic majority report concluded that Fannie & Freddie "were not a primary cause" of the crisis and that CRA was not a factor in the crisis. Further, since housing bubbles appeared in multiple countries in Europe as well,
22632-410: The protections we had constructed to prevent financial meltdowns. We had a 21st-century financial system with 19th-century safeguards. The Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act (1999), which reduced the regulation of banks by allowing commercial and investment banks to merge, has also been blamed for the crisis, by Nobel Prize –winning economist Joseph Stiglitz among others. Peter Wallison and Edward Pinto of
22796-619: The rate at which heat escapes into space, trapping heat near the Earth's surface and warming it over time. While water vapour (≈50%) and clouds (≈25%) are the biggest contributors to the greenhouse effect, they primarily change as a function of temperature and are therefore mostly considered to be feedbacks that change climate sensitivity . On the other hand, concentrations of gases such as CO 2 (≈20%), tropospheric ozone , CFCs and nitrous oxide are added or removed independently from temperature, and are therefore considered to be external forcings that change global temperatures. Before
22960-522: The rate of Arctic shrinkage and underestimated the rate of precipitation increase. Sea level rise since 1990 was underestimated in older models, but more recent models agree well with observations. The 2017 United States-published National Climate Assessment notes that "climate models may still be underestimating or missing relevant feedback processes". Additionally, climate models may be unable to adequately predict short-term regional climatic shifts. A subset of climate models add societal factors to
23124-622: The rate of yield growth . Fisheries have been negatively affected in multiple regions. While agricultural productivity has been positively affected in some high latitude areas, mid- and low-latitude areas have been negatively affected. According to the World Economic Forum, an increase in drought in certain regions could cause 3.2 million deaths from malnutrition by 2050 and stunting in children. With 2 °C warming, global livestock headcounts could decline by 7–10% by 2050, as less animal feed will be available. If
23288-405: The recent average. This is why the temperature change is defined in terms of a 20-year average, which reduces the noise of hot and cold years and decadal climate patterns, and detects the long-term signal. A wide range of other observations reinforce the evidence of warming. The upper atmosphere is cooling, because greenhouse gases are trapping heat near the Earth's surface, and so less heat
23452-402: The recession have been described as a symptom of another, deeper crisis by a number of economists. For example, Ravi Batra argues that growing inequality of financial capitalism produces speculative bubbles that burst and result in depression and major political changes . Feminist economists Ailsa McKay and Margunn Bjørnholt argue that the financial crisis and the response to it revealed
23616-488: The recovery was that both individuals and businesses paid down debts for several years, as opposed to borrowing and spending or investing as had historically been the case. This shift to a private sector surplus drove a sizable government deficit. However, the federal government held spending at about $ 3.5 trillion from fiscal years 2009–2014 (thereby decreasing it as a percent of GDP), a form of austerity . Then-Fed Chair Ben Bernanke explained during November 2012 several of
23780-411: The release of chemical compounds that influence clouds, and by changing wind patterns. In tropic and temperate areas the net effect is to produce significant warming, and forest restoration can make local temperatures cooler. At latitudes closer to the poles, there is a cooling effect as forest is replaced by snow-covered (and more reflective) plains. Globally, these increases in surface albedo have been
23944-476: The remaining 23%. Some forests have not been fully cleared, but were already degraded by these impacts. Restoring these forests also recovers their potential as a carbon sink. Local vegetation cover impacts how much of the sunlight gets reflected back into space ( albedo ), and how much heat is lost by evaporation . For instance, the change from a dark forest to grassland makes the surface lighter, causing it to reflect more sunlight. Deforestation can also modify
24108-461: The repo margin ("haircut"), forcing massive deleveraging, and resulting in the banking system being insolvent. The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission reported in January 2011: In the early part of the 20th century, we erected a series of protections – the Federal Reserve as a lender of last resort , federal deposit insurance, ample regulations – to provide a bulwark against the panics that had regularly plagued America's banking system in
24272-499: The same house. Speculators that bought CDS protection were betting significant mortgage security defaults would occur, while the sellers (such as AIG ) bet they would not. An unlimited amount could be wagered on the same housing-related securities, provided buyers and sellers of the CDS could be found. When massive defaults occurred on underlying mortgage securities, companies like AIG that were selling CDS were unable to perform their side of
24436-583: The sea levels by at least 3.3 m (10 ft 10 in) over approximately 2000 years. Recent warming has driven many terrestrial and freshwater species poleward and towards higher altitudes . For instance, the range of hundreds of North American birds has shifted northward at an average rate of 1.5 km/year over the past 55 years. Higher atmospheric CO 2 levels and an extended growing season have resulted in global greening. However, heatwaves and drought have reduced ecosystem productivity in some regions. The future balance of these opposing effects
24600-518: The stimulus measures such as quantitative easing (pumping money into the system) and holding down central bank wholesale lending interest rate should be withdrawn as soon as economies recover enough to "chart a path to sustainable growth ". The distribution of household incomes in the United States became more unequal during the post-2008 economic recovery . Income inequality in the United States grew from 2005 to 2012 in more than two thirds of metropolitan areas. Median household wealth fell 35% in
24764-663: The stock market meant that household debt relative to assets held broadly stable, which masked households' growing exposure to a sharp fall in asset prices. When house prices declined, ushering in the global financial crisis, many households saw their wealth shrink relative to their debt, and, with less income and more unemployment, found it harder to meet mortgage payments. By the end of 2011, real house prices had fallen from their peak by about 41% in Ireland, 29% in Iceland, 23% in Spain and
24928-490: The system. Policy-makers, regulators and supervisors, in some advanced countries, did not adequately appreciate and address the risks building up in financial markets, keep pace with financial innovation, or take into account the systemic ramifications of domestic regulatory actions. Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke testified in September 2010 before the FCIC regarding the causes of the crisis. He wrote that there were shocks or triggers (i.e., particular events that touched off
25092-498: The top investment banks during an April 2004 meeting with bank leaders. These banks increased their risk-taking shortly thereafter, significantly increasing their purchases and securitization of lower-quality mortgages, thus encouraging additional subprime and Alt-A lending by mortgage companies. This action by its investment bank competitors also resulted in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac taking on more risk. The financial crisis and
25256-520: The value of both stock markets and housing prices, fell $ 11.5 trillion (17.3%) and did not regain its pre-recession level of $ 66.4 trillion until Q3 2012. The number of persons with jobs (total non-farm payrolls) fell 8.6 million (6.2%) and did not regain the pre-recession level of 138.3 million until May 2014. The unemployment rate peaked at 10.0% in October 2009 and did not return to its pre-recession level of 4.7% until May 2016. A key dynamic slowing
25420-453: The word "recession" exist: one sense referring definitively to "a period of reduced economic activity" and ongoing hardship; and the more allegoric interpretation used in economics , which is defined operationally , referring specifically to the contraction phase of a business cycle , with two or more consecutive quarters of GDP contraction (negative GDP growth rate) and typically used to influence abrupt changes in monetary policy. Under
25584-687: The world, especially in the United States , France, the United Kingdom , Spain , the Netherlands, Australia, the United Arab Emirates, New Zealand , Ireland , Poland , South Africa , Greece , Bulgaria , Croatia , Norway , Singapore , South Korea , Sweden , Finland , Argentina , the Baltic states , India , Romania , Ukraine and China . U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said in mid-2005 that "at
25748-454: The world, as they offered higher yields than U.S. government bonds. Many of these securities were backed by subprime mortgages, which collapsed in value when the U.S. housing bubble burst during 2006 and homeowners began to default on their mortgage payments in large numbers starting in 2007. The emergence of subprime loan losses in 2007 began the crisis and exposed other risky loans and over-inflated asset prices. With loan losses mounting and
25912-438: The world. Impacts can be observed on all continents and ocean regions, with low-latitude, less developed areas facing the greatest risk. Continued warming has potentially "severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts" for people and ecosystems. The risks are unevenly distributed, but are generally greater for disadvantaged people in developing and developed countries. The World Health Organization calls climate change one of
26076-515: Was a period of market decline in economies around the world that occurred from late 2007 to mid-2009. The scale and timing of the recession varied from country to country (see map). At the time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded that it was the most severe economic and financial meltdown since the Great Depression . The causes of the Great Recession include a combination of vulnerabilities that developed in
26240-725: Was able to accurately predict the advance of this recession, except for minor signals in the sudden rise of forecast probabilities, which were still well under 50%. The recession was not felt equally around the world; whereas most of the world's developed economies , particularly in North America, South America and Europe, fell into a severe, sustained recession, many more recently developing economies suffered far less impact, particularly China , India and Indonesia , whose economies grew substantially during this period. Similarly, Oceania suffered minimal impact , in part due to its proximity to Asian markets. Two interpretations of
26404-913: Was appointed to chair the committee. On January 10, 2019, a letter signed by 626 organizations in support of a Green New Deal was sent to all members of Congress. It called for measures such as "an expansion of the Clean Air Act ; a ban on crude oil exports; an end to fossil fuel subsidies and fossil fuel leasing; and a phase-out of all gasoline-powered vehicles by 2040." The letter also indicated that signatories would "vigorously oppose ... market-based mechanisms and technology options such as carbon and emissions trading and offsets , carbon capture and storage , nuclear power , waste-to-energy and biomass energy ." Climate change Present-day climate change includes both global warming —the ongoing increase in global average temperature —and its wider effects on Earth's climate . Climate change in
26568-456: Was paid out to major global financial institutions on behalf of AIG. While this money was legally owed to the banks by AIG (under agreements made via credit default swaps purchased from AIG by the institutions), a number of Congressmen and media members expressed outrage that taxpayer money was used to bail out banks. Economist Gary Gorton wrote in May 2009 Unlike the historical banking panics of
26732-524: Was sending more energy to Earth, but instead, it has been cooling. This is consistent with greenhouse gases preventing heat from leaving the Earth's atmosphere. Explosive volcanic eruptions can release gases, dust and ash that partially block sunlight and reduce temperatures, or they can send water vapour into the atmosphere, which adds to greenhouse gases and increases temperatures. These impacts on temperature only last for several years, because both water vapour and volcanic material have low persistence in
26896-402: Was the result." In May 2008, NPR explained in their Peabody Award winning program " The Giant Pool of Money " that a vast inflow of savings from developing nations flowed into the mortgage market, driving the U.S. housing bubble. This pool of fixed income savings increased from around $ 35 trillion in 2000 to about $ 70 trillion by 2008. NPR explained this money came from various sources, "[b]ut
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