An opinion poll , often simply referred to as a survey or a poll (although strictly a poll is an actual election), is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample . Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence intervals . A person who conducts polls is referred to as a pollster .
144-401: The UEFA Golden Jubilee Poll is the popular name for an online poll conducted in 2004 by UEFA as part of their Golden Jubilee celebrations, celebrating the best European footballers from the fifty previous years. The poll, available on UEFA's website , asked respondents to pick their ten favorite players from each of the five previous decades, from
288-441: A margin of error – usually defined as the radius of a 95% confidence interval for a particular statistic. One example is the percent of people who prefer product A versus product B. When a single, global margin of error is reported for a survey, it refers to the maximum margin of error for all reported percentages using the full sample from the survey. If the statistic is a percentage, this maximum margin of error can be calculated as
432-451: A French Zone in the far west; a British Zone in the northwest; an American Zone in the south; and a Soviet Zone in the East. Berlin was separately divided into four zones. These divisions were not intended to dismember Germany, only to designate zones of administration. By the subsequent Potsdam Agreement , the four Allied Powers asserted joint sovereignty over "Germany as a whole", defined as
576-515: A State of Emergency") and the labour unions . Demonstrations and protests grew in number, and in 1967 the student Benno Ohnesorg was shot in the head by a policeman. The press, especially the tabloid Bild-Zeitung newspaper, launched a campaign against the protesters. By 1968, a stronger desire to confront the Nazi past had come into being. In the 1970s environmentalism and anti-nationalism became fundamental values among left-wing Germans. As
720-541: A caretaker. However, he ruled for 14 years. The grand statesman of German postwar politics had to be dragged—almost literally—out of office in 1963. In October 1962 the weekly news magazine Der Spiegel published an analysis of the West German military defence. The conclusion was that there were several weaknesses in the system. Ten days after publication, the offices of Der Spiegel in Hamburg were raided by
864-562: A coalition would be far from a majority. Neither condition changed until 1998. Denazification was an Allied initiative to rid German politics, judiciary, society, culture, press and economy of Nazi ideology and personnel following the Second World War . It was carried out by removing those who had been Nazi Party or SS members from positions of power and influence, by disbanding the organizations associated with Nazism, and by trying prominent Nazis for war crimes . The program
1008-635: A final Peace Treaty. Following wartime commitments by the Allies to the governments-in-exile of Czechoslovakia and Poland, the Potsdam Protocols also agreed to the 'orderly and humane' transfer to Germany as a whole of the ethnic German populations in Poland, Czechoslovakia and Hungary. Eight million German expellees and refugees eventually settled in West Germany. Between 1946 and 1949, three of
1152-489: A fixed number of the most recent periods, for example the past five days. In this example, the next calculated results will use data for five days counting backwards from the next day, namely the same data as before, but with the data from the next day included, and without the data from the sixth day before that day. However, these polls are sometimes subject to dramatic fluctuations, and so political campaigns and candidates are cautious in analyzing their results. An example of
1296-471: A huge role in the supplying of news: 62 percent of US adults get news on social media. This fact makes the issue of fake news on social media more pertinent. Other evidence shows that the most popular fake news stories were more widely shared on Facebook than the most popular mainstream news stories; many people who see fake news stories report that they believe them; and the most discussed fake news stories tended to favor Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton. As
1440-445: A larger sample, however if a pollster wishes to reduce the margin of error to 1% they would need a sample of around 10,000 people. In practice, pollsters need to balance the cost of a large sample against the reduction in sampling error and a sample size of around 500–1,000 is a typical compromise for political polls. (To get complete responses it may be necessary to include thousands of additional participators.) Another way to reduce
1584-634: A leading FDP official, became Vice Chancellor and Foreign Minister. Schmidt, a strong supporter of the European Community (EC) and the Atlantic alliance, emphasized his commitment to "the political unification of Europe in partnership with the USA". Mounting external problems forced Schmidt to concentrate on foreign policy and limited the domestic reforms that he could carry out. The USSR upgraded its intermediate-range missiles, which Schmidt complained
SECTION 10
#17327796674971728-872: A major role in drafting the antisemitic Nuremberg Race Laws in Nazi Germany. In 1957, 77% of the West German Ministry of Justice 's senior officials were former Nazi Party members. In West Germany, most of the political agencies and buildings were located in Bonn, while the German Stock Market was located in Frankfurt which became the economic center. The judicial branch of both the German Federal Constitutional Court ( Bundesverfassungsgericht ) and
1872-781: A member of the subsequently founded Warsaw Pact . The former capital, Berlin , had been divided into four sectors, with the Western Allies joining their sectors to form West Berlin , while the Soviets held East Berlin . West Berlin was completely surrounded by East German territory and had suffered a Soviet blockade in 1948–49, which was overcome by the Berlin airlift . The outbreak of the Korean War in June 1950 led to U.S. calls to rearm West Germany to help defend Western Europe from
2016-769: A memorial to the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising crushed by the Germans, Brandt unexpectedly knelt and meditated in silence, a moment remembered as the Kniefall von Warschau . Brandt resigned as chancellor in 1974, after Günter Guillaume , one of his closest aides, was exposed as an agent of the Stasi , the East German secret service . Finance Minister Helmut Schmidt (SPD) formed a coalition and he served as Chancellor from 1974 to 1982. Hans-Dietrich Genscher ,
2160-575: A national survey (partly as a circulation-raising exercise) and correctly predicted Woodrow Wilson 's election as president. Mailing out millions of postcards and simply counting the returns, The Literary Digest also correctly predicted the victories of Warren Harding in 1920, Calvin Coolidge in 1924, Herbert Hoover in 1928, and Franklin Roosevelt in 1932. Then, in 1936 , its survey of 2.3 million voters suggested that Alf Landon would win
2304-586: A new generation of teachers, educated with the findings of historical studies, could begin to reveal the truth about the war and the crimes committed in the name of the German people, one courageous attorney, Fritz Bauer patiently gathered evidence on the guards of the Auschwitz concentration camp and about twenty were put on trial in Frankfurt in 1963. Daily newspaper reports and visits by school classes to
2448-526: A person who is described by the surveyor as one of the "leading candidates". This description is "leading" as it indicates a subtle bias for that candidate, since it implies that the others in the race are not serious contenders. Additionally, leading questions often contain, or lack, certain facts that can sway a respondent's answer. Argumentative Questions can also impact the outcome of a survey. These types of questions, depending on their nature, either positive or negative, influence respondents' answers to reflect
2592-463: A question, with each version presented to half the respondents. The most effective controls, used by attitude researchers, are: These controls are not widely used in the polling industry. . However, as it is important that questions to test the product have a high quality, survey methodologists work on methods to test them. Empirical tests provide insight into the quality of the questionnaire, some may be more complex than others. For instance, testing
2736-407: A questionnaire can be done by: One of the criticisms of opinion polls is that societal assumptions that opinions between which there is no logical link are "correlated attitudes" can push people with one opinion into a group that forces them to pretend to have a supposedly linked but actually unrelated opinion. That, in turn, may cause people who have the first opinion to claim on polls that they have
2880-692: A result of these facts, some have concluded that if not for these stories, Donald Trump may not have won the election over Hillary Clinton. By providing information about voting intentions, opinion polls can sometimes influence the behavior of electors, and in his book The Broken Compass , Peter Hitchens asserts that opinion polls are actually a device for influencing public opinion. The various theories about how this happens can be split into two groups: bandwagon/underdog effects, and strategic ("tactical") voting. West Germany in Europe (dark grey) in Europe (dark grey) West Germany
3024-622: A result, in 1979 the Greens were able to reach the 5% minimum required to obtain parliamentary seats in the Free Hanseatic City of Bremen state election, and with the foundation of the national party in 1980 developed into one of the most politically successful green movements in the world. Another result of the unrest in the 1960s was the founding of the Red Army Faction (RAF). The RAF was active from 1968, carrying out
SECTION 20
#17327796674973168-705: A result, it officially considered West Germans and West Berliners as foreigners. The initialism BRD (FRG in English) began to prevail in East German usage in the early 1970s, beginning in the newspaper Neues Deutschland . Other Eastern Bloc nations soon followed suit. In 1965, the West German Federal Minister of All-German Affairs , Erich Mende , had issued the "Directives for the Appellation of Germany", recommending avoiding
3312-427: A sample is drawn from a large panel of volunteers, and the results are weighted to reflect the demographics of the population of interest. In contrast, popular web polls draw on whoever wishes to participate rather than a scientific sample of the population, and are therefore not generally considered professional. Statistical learning methods have been proposed in order to exploit social media content (such as posts on
3456-4979: A shortlist of 250 players. Over 150,000 people responded, producing over seven million votes. Zinedine Zidane topped the poll narrowly from Franz Beckenbauer . Italian players featured most frequently with ten nominations, edging out German players with eight nominations. Full results [ edit ] Player Nation Votes 1 Zinedine Zidane [REDACTED] France 123,582 2 Franz Beckenbauer [REDACTED] Germany 122,569 3 Johan Cruyff [REDACTED] Netherlands 119,332 4 Marco Van Basten [REDACTED] Netherlands 117,987 5 Dino Zoff [REDACTED] Italy 114,529 6 Alfredo Di Stéfano [REDACTED] Argentina [REDACTED] Spain 107,435 7 Eusébio [REDACTED] Portugal [REDACTED] Mozambique 103,937 8 Lev Yashin [REDACTED] Russia 101,862 9 Michel Platini [REDACTED] France 99,380 10 Paolo Maldini [REDACTED] Italy 95,497 11 Ferenc Puskás [REDACTED] Hungary [REDACTED] Spain 94,361 12 Paolo Rossi [REDACTED] Italy 91,194 13 Ruud Gullit [REDACTED] Netherlands 91,001 14 Bobby Charlton [REDACTED] England 89,921 15 Lothar Matthäus [REDACTED] West Germany [REDACTED] Germany 86,798 16 Karl-Heinz Rummenigge [REDACTED] West Germany 86,649 17 Franco Baresi [REDACTED] Italy 83,800 18 Gerd Müller [REDACTED] West Germany 82,668 19 George Best [REDACTED] Northern Ireland 79,036 20 Kevin Keegan [REDACTED] England 78,840 21 Frank Rijkaard [REDACTED] Netherlands 71,333 22 David Beckham [REDACTED] England 71,299 23 Bobby Moore [REDACTED] England 70,884 24 Roberto Baggio [REDACTED] Italy 68,239 25 Michael Laudrup [REDACTED] Denmark 67,484 26 Ronald Koeman [REDACTED] Netherlands 66,661 27 Peter Schmeichel [REDACTED] Denmark 66,463 28 Gheorghe Hagi [REDACTED] Romania 62,383 29 Sepp Maier [REDACTED] West Germany 62,375 30 Oliver Kahn [REDACTED] Germany 58,151 31 Luís Figo [REDACTED] Portugal 58,078 32 Raúl [REDACTED] Spain 56,880 33 Berti Vogts [REDACTED] West Germany 55,398 34 Johan Neeskens [REDACTED] Netherlands 54,796 35 Gianni Rivera [REDACTED] Italy 53,874 36 José Antonio Camacho [REDACTED] Spain 53,873 37 Marco Tardelli [REDACTED] Italy 53,732 38 Just Fontaine [REDACTED] France 53,612 39 Peter Shilton [REDACTED] England 50,841 40 Bernd Schuster [REDACTED] West Germany 50,247 41 Raymond Kopa [REDACTED] France 49,504 42 Eric Cantona [REDACTED] France 48,436 43 Stanley Matthews [REDACTED] England 47,915 44 Ruud van Nistelrooy [REDACTED] Netherlands 47,398 45 Valentin Ivanov [REDACTED] Soviet Union 46,022 46 Gary Lineker [REDACTED] England 44,787 47 Alessandro Nesta [REDACTED] Italy 44,667 48 José Santamaría [REDACTED] Uruguay [REDACTED] Spain 43,690 49 Alessandro Del Piero [REDACTED] Italy 43,227 50 Alessandro Costacurta [REDACTED] Italy 42,511 See also [ edit ] FIFA 100 UEFA Jubilee Awards UEFA Club Football Awards External links [ edit ] UEFA Golden Jubilee Poll Media Release UEFA Awards v t e UEFA club competitions records and statistics European football clubs in international competitions by country Records and statistics Champions League Europa League Cup Winners' Cup Intercontinental Cup Women's Champions League Awards Men's Player of
3600-415: A significant problem if a poll is conducted too early for anyone to know about the potential candidate. A benchmark poll needs to be undertaken when voters are starting to learn more about the possible candidate running for office. A benchmark poll serves a number of purposes for a campaign. First, it gives the candidate a picture of where they stand with the electorate before any campaigning takes place. If
3744-633: A sovereign state" on 5 May 1955 (although "full sovereignty" was not obtained until the Two Plus Four Agreement in 1990). The former occupying Western troops remained on the ground, now as part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which West Germany joined on 9 May 1955, promising to rearm itself soon. West Germany became a focus of the Cold War with its juxtaposition to East Germany ,
3888-458: A special performance. Supporters of the Shah (later known as Jubelperser ), armed with staves and bricks attacked the protesters while the police stood by and watched. A demonstration in the centre was being forcibly dispersed when a bystander named Benno Ohnesorg was shot in the head and killed by a plainclothes policeman. (It has now been established that the policeman, Kurras, was a paid spy of
4032-618: A subsidiary in the United Kingdom that was almost alone in correctly predicting Labour's victory in the 1945 general election : virtually all other commentators had expected a victory for the Conservative Party , led by wartime leader Winston Churchill . The Allied occupation powers helped to create survey institutes in all of the Western occupation zones of Germany in 1947 and 1948 to better steer denazification . By
4176-541: A succession of terrorist attacks in West Germany during the 1970s. Even in the 1990s, attacks were still being committed under the name RAF . The last action took place in 1993, and in 1998 the group announced it was ceasing activities. In the 1969 election, the SPD gained enough votes to form a coalition government with the FDP. SPD leader and Chancellor Willy Brandt remained head of government until May 1974, when he resigned after
4320-479: A tracking poll that generated controversy over its accuracy, is one conducted during the 2000 U.S. presidential election, by the Gallup Organization . The results for one day showed Democratic candidate Al Gore with an eleven-point lead over Republican candidate George W. Bush . Then, a subsequent poll conducted just two days later showed Bush ahead of Gore by seven points. It was soon determined that
4464-539: A whole despite the Soviets declaring the end of occupation of East Berlin unilaterally many decades before). The Two-plus-Four Agreement also saw the two parts of Germany confirm their post-war external boundaries as final and irreversible (including the 1945 transfer of former German lands east of the Oder–Neisse line ), and the Allied Powers confirmed their consent to German Reunification. From 3 October 1990, after
UEFA Golden Jubilee Poll - Misplaced Pages Continue
4608-497: Is a popular medium for the candidates to campaign and for gauging the public reaction to the campaigns. Social media can also be used as an indicator of the voter opinion regarding the poll. Some research studies have shown that predictions made using social media signals can match traditional opinion polls. Regarding the 2016 U.S. presidential election , a major concern has been that of the effect of false stories spread throughout social media . Evidence shows that social media plays
4752-517: Is much more effective than traditional public opinion polling. Unlike traditional public polling, deliberative opinion polls measure what the public believes about issues after being offered information and the ability to discuss them with other voters. Since voters generally do not actively research various issues, they often base their opinions on these issues on what the media and candidates say about them. Scholars argued that these polls can truly reflect voters' feelings about an issue once they are given
4896-485: Is often referred to as the Bradley effect . If the results of surveys are widely publicized this effect may be magnified – a phenomenon commonly referred to as the spiral of silence . Use of the plurality voting system (select only one candidate) in a poll puts an unintentional bias into the poll, since people who favor more than one candidate cannot indicate this. The fact that they must choose only one candidate biases
5040-491: Is probability sampling and statistical theory that enable one to determine sampling error, confidence levels, and the like and to generalize from the results of the sample to the broader population from which it was selected. Other factors also come into play in making a survey scientific. One must select a sample of sufficient size. If the sampling error is too large or the level of confidence too low, it will be difficult to make reasonably precise statements about characteristics of
5184-401: Is subject to controversy. Deliberative Opinion Polls combine the aspects of a public opinion poll and a focus group. These polls bring a group of voters and provide information about specific issues. They are then allowed to discuss those issues with the other voters. Once they know more about the issues, they are polled afterward on their thoughts. Many scholars argue that this type of polling
5328-422: Is that an estimate of a trend is subject to a larger error than an estimate of a level. This is because if one estimates the change, the difference between two numbers X and Y, then one has to contend with errors in both X and Y . A rough guide is that if the change in measurement falls outside the margin of error it is worth attention. Since some people do not answer calls from strangers, or refuse to answer
5472-609: Is the common English name for the Federal Republic of Germany from its formation on 23 May 1949 until its reunification with East Germany on 3 October 1990. It is sometimes known as the Bonn Republic (German: Bonner Republik ) after its capital city of Bonn . During the Cold War , the western portion of Germany and the associated territory of West Berlin were parts of the Western Bloc . West Germany
5616-494: The 1993 general election predicted the governing National Party would increase its majority. However, the preliminary results on election night showed a hung parliament with National one seat short of a majority, leading to Prime Minister Jim Bolger exclaiming "bugger the pollsters" on live national television. The official count saw National gain Waitaki to hold a one-seat majority and retain government. Social media today
5760-573: The Guillaume affair , in which a senior member of his staff was uncovered as a spy for the East German intelligence service, the Stasi . However, the affair is widely considered to have been merely a trigger for Brandt's resignation, not a fundamental cause. Instead, Brandt, dogged by scandal relating to alcohol and depression as well as the economic fallout of the 1973 oil crisis , almost seems simply to have had enough. As Brandt himself later said, "I
5904-650: The London and Paris Conferences , the Brussels Treaty was modified to include West Germany, and to form the Western European Union (WEU). West Germany was to be permitted to rearm (an idea many Germans rejected), and have full sovereign control of its military, called the Bundeswehr . The WEU, however, would regulate the size of the armed forces permitted to each of its member states. Also,
UEFA Golden Jubilee Poll - Misplaced Pages Continue
6048-510: The Nazi extermination of the Jews never happened?" The confusing wording of this question led to inaccurate results which indicated that 22 percent of respondents believed it seemed possible the Holocaust might not have ever happened. When the question was reworded, significantly fewer respondents (only 1 percent) expressed that same sentiment. Thus comparisons between polls often boil down to
6192-486: The Red Brigades ( Brigate Rosse ), many students went to work in the factories, but with little or no success. The most notorious of the underground groups was the Red Army Faction which began by making bank raids to finance their activities and eventually went underground having killed a number of policemen, several bystanders and eventually two prominent West Germans, whom they had taken captive in order to force
6336-635: The Republic of Baden , which had derived ultimately from former independent German kingdoms and principalities. In the dominant post-war narrative of West Germany, the Nazi regime was characterised as having been a 'criminal' state, illegal and illegitimate from the outset; while the Weimar Republic was characterised as having been a 'failed' state, whose inherent institutional and constitutional flaws had been exploited by Hitler in his illegal seizure of dictatorial powers. Consequently, following
6480-493: The United States was the prediction that Thomas Dewey would defeat Harry S. Truman in the 1948 US presidential election . Major polling organizations, including Gallup and Roper, had indicated that Dewey would defeat Truman in a landslide; Truman won a narrow victory. There were also substantial polling errors in the presidential elections of 1952, 1980, 1996, 2000, and 2016: while the first three correctly predicted
6624-475: The "Two-plus-Four Agreement"); by which transitional status of Germany following World War II was definitively ended and the Four Allied powers relinquished their joint residual sovereign authority for Germany as a whole including the area of West Berlin which had officially remained under Allied occupation for the purposes of international and GDR law (a status that the Western countries applied to Berlin as
6768-686: The 'overall' German state that was held to have embodied the unified German people since the Frankfurt Parliament of 1848, and which from 1871 had been represented within the German Reich ; albeit that this overall state had become effectively dormant long before 8 May 1945. In 1949 with the continuation and aggravation of the Cold War (for example, the Berlin Airlift of 1948–49), the two German states that had originated in
6912-470: The 1950s, various types of polling had spread to most democracies. Viewed from a long-term perspective, advertising had come under heavy pressure in the early 1930s. The Great Depression forced businesses to drastically cut back on their advertising spending. Layoffs and reductions were common at all agencies. The New Deal furthermore aggressively promoted consumerism, and minimized the value of (or need for) advertising. Historian Jackson Lears argues that "By
7056-541: The 1970s, the West German state was to maintain that these 1937 boundaries continued to be 'valid in international law', although the Allies had already agreed amongst themselves that the territories east of the Oder-Neisse line must be transferred to Poland and the Soviet Union in any peace agreement. The conference agreed that post-war Germany, minus these transfers, would be divided into four occupation zones :
7200-456: The 2016 New York primary, where a news organization reports misleading primary results. Government officials argue that since many Americans believe in exit polls more, election results are likely to make voters not think they are impacted electorally and be more doubtful about the credibility of news organizations. Over time, a number of theories and mechanisms have been offered to explain erroneous polling results. Some of these reflect errors on
7344-545: The 2016 U.S. primaries, CNN reported that the Democratic primary in New York was too close to call, and they made this judgment based on exit polls. However, the vote count revealed that these exit polls were misleading, and Hillary Clinton was far ahead of Bernie Sanders in the popular vote, winning the state by 58% to 42% margin. The overreliance on exit polling leads to the second point of how it undermines public trust in
SECTION 50
#17327796674977488-423: The Allies stationed troops within West Germany for NATO defense, pursuant to stationing and status-of-forces agreements. With the exception of 55,000 French troops, Allied forces were under NATO's joint defense command. (France withdrew from the collective military command structure of NATO in 1966.) Konrad Adenauer was 73 years old when he became chancellor in 1949, and for this reason he was initially reckoned as
7632-540: The Atlantic alliance, emphasized his commitment to "the political unification of Europe in partnership with the USA". The goals of SPD and FDP however drifted apart in the late 1970s and early 1980s. On 1 October 1982 the FDP joined forces with the CDU/CSU to elect CDU Chairman Helmut Kohl as Chancellor in a constructive vote of no confidence . Following national elections in March 1983, Kohl emerged in firm control of both
7776-521: The Auschwitz trial reverberated decades later. The calling in question of the actions and policies of government led to a new climate of debate. The issues of emancipation, colonialism, environmentalism and grass roots democracy were discussed at all levels of society. In 1979 the environmental party, the Greens, reached the 5% limit required to obtain parliamentary seats in the Free Hanseatic City of Bremen provincial election. Also of great significance
7920-463: The Conservatives neck and neck, when the actual result was a clear Conservative majority. On the other hand, in 2017 , the opposite appears to have occurred. Most polls predicted an increased Conservative majority, even though in reality the election resulted in a hung parliament with a Conservative plurality: some polls correctly predicted this outcome. In New Zealand, the polls leading up to
8064-671: The EDC while maintaining independent control of their own armed forces. Though the EDC treaty was signed (May 1952), it never entered into force. France's Gaullists rejected it on the grounds that it threatened national sovereignty, and when the French National Assembly refused to ratify it (August 1954), the treaty died. The French Gaullists and communists had killed the French government's proposal. Then other means had to be found to allow West German rearmament. In response, at
8208-634: The East German security forces.) Protest demonstrations continued, and calls for more active opposition by some groups of students were made, which was declared by the press, especially the tabloid Bild -Zeitung newspaper, as a massive disruption to life in Berlin, in a massive campaign against the protesters. Protests against the US intervention in Vietnam , mingled with anger over the vigour with which demonstrations were repressed led to mounting militance among
8352-473: The Federal Republic of Germany in 1990. The five post-war states ( Länder ) were reconstituted, along with the reunited Berlin , which ended its special status and formed an additional Land . They formally joined the federal republic on 3 October 1990, raising the total number of states from ten to sixteen, and ending the division of Germany. The reunited Germany is the direct continuation of
8496-420: The Federal Republic of Germany, so Bundesrepublik Deutschland became the official name of reunified Germany. In East Germany, the terms Westdeutschland (West Germany) or westdeutsche Bundesrepublik (West German Federal Republic) were preferred during the 1950s and 1960s. This changed under its constitutional amendment in 1974, when the idea of a single German nation was abandoned by East Germany. As
8640-504: The Federal Republic on 3 October 1990, raising the number of states from 10 to 16, ending the division of Germany. The expanded Federal Republic retained West Germany's political culture and continued its existing memberships in international organisations, as well as its Western foreign policy alignment and affiliation to Western alliances like NATO and the European Union. The official German reunification ceremony on 3 October 1990
8784-516: The Federal Republic subject to the terms of the Unification Treaty between the two states; and then both West Germany and East Germany radically amended their respective constitutions in accordance with that Treaty's provisions. East Germany then dissolved itself, and its five post-war states ( Länder ) were reconstituted, along with the reunited Berlin which ended its special status and formed an additional Land . They formally joined
SECTION 60
#17327796674978928-572: The Free Democratic Party (FDP) in order to lay the groundwork for an eventual return to power. Although this effort was exposed and disrupted, many former Nazis still attained positions of power and influence in the political system. West German President (1974–1979) Walter Scheel and Chancellor (1966–1969) Kurt Georg Kiesinger were both former members of the Nazi Party. Konrad Adenauer's State Secretary Hans Globke had played
9072-402: The German constitution prohibited any military action, except in the case of an external attack against Germany or its allies ( Bündnisfall ). Also, Germans could reject military service on grounds of conscience, and serve for civil purposes instead. The three Western Allies retained occupation powers in Berlin and certain responsibilities for Germany as a whole. Under the new arrangements,
9216-569: The Pew Research Center in the US, in 2007, concluded that "cell-only respondents are different from landline respondents in important ways, (but) they were neither numerous enough nor different enough on the questions we examined to produce a significant change in overall general population survey estimates when included with the landline samples and weighted according to US Census parameters on basic demographic characteristics." This issue
9360-552: The State Counsel Siegfried Buback . In October 1969 Willy Brandt became chancellor. He maintained West Germany's close alignment with the United States and focused on strengthening European integration in western Europe, while launching the new policy of Ostpolitik aimed at improving relations with Eastern Europe. Brandt was controversial on both the right wing, for his Ostpolitik , and on
9504-427: The United Nations, NATO, OECD , and the European Economic Community . Before reunification, Germany was divided between the Bundesrepublik Deutschland (Federal Republic of Germany; commonly known as West Germany) and the Deutsche Demokratische Republik (DDR; German Democratic Republic; commonly known as East Germany). Reunification was achieved by accession ( Beitritt ) of the German Democratic Republic to
9648-489: The United States (because the phone's owner may be charged for taking a call ), these individuals are typically excluded from polling samples. There is concern that, if the subset of the population without cell phones differs markedly from the rest of the population, these differences can skew the results of the poll. Polling organizations have developed many weighting techniques to help overcome these deficiencies, with varying degrees of success. Studies of mobile phone users by
9792-446: The United States, the United Kingdom, and the Soviet Union held the Yalta Conference where future arrangements regarding post-war Europe and Allied strategy against Japan in the Pacific were negotiated. They agreed that the boundaries of Germany as at 31 December 1937 would be chosen as demarcating German national territory from German-occupied territory; all German annexations after 1937 were automatically null. Subsequently, and into
9936-400: The Western Allied and the Soviet Zones respectively became known internationally as West Germany and East Germany. Commonly known in English as East Germany , the former Soviet occupation zone in Germany , eventually became the German Democratic Republic or GDR . In 1990 West Germany and East Germany jointly signed the Treaty on the Final Settlement with Respect to Germany (also known as
10080-542: The Year Award Women's Player of the Year Award Club Football Awards Club Footballer of the Year Best European Goalkeeper The UEFA Plaque Team of the Year Golden Jubilee Poll Jubilee Awards Retrieved from " https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=UEFA_Golden_Jubilee_Poll&oldid=1168266600 " Categories : UEFA trophies and awards 2003–04 in European football 2004–05 in European football Opinion poll The first known example of an opinion poll
10224-422: The actual sample is a biased version of the universe the pollster wants to analyze. In these cases, bias introduces new errors, one way or the other, that are in addition to errors caused by sample size. Error due to bias does not become smaller with larger sample sizes, because taking a larger sample size simply repeats the same mistake on a larger scale. If the people who refuse to answer, or are never reached, have
10368-449: The answers given by respondents do not reflect their true beliefs. This may be deliberately engineered by unscrupulous pollsters in order to generate a certain result or please their clients, but more often is a result of the detailed wording or ordering of questions (see below). Respondents may deliberately try to manipulate the outcome of a poll by e.g. advocating a more extreme position than they actually hold in order to boost their side of
10512-424: The argument or give rapid and ill-considered answers in order to hasten the end of their questioning. Respondents may also feel under social pressure not to give an unpopular answer. For example, respondents might be unwilling to admit to unpopular attitudes like racism or sexism , and thus polls might not reflect the true incidence of these attitudes in the population. In American political parlance, this phenomenon
10656-584: The assumption that opinion polls show actual links between opinions is considered important. Another source of error is the use of samples that are not representative of the population as a consequence of the methodology used, as was the experience of The Literary Digest in 1936. For example, telephone sampling has a built-in error because in many times and places, those with telephones have generally been richer than those without. In some places many people have only mobile telephones . Because pollsters cannot use automated dialing machines to call mobile phones in
10800-445: The breakdown of the US population by party identification has not changed since the previous presidential election, you may underestimate a victory or a defeat of a particular party candidate that saw a surge or decline in its party registration relative to the previous presidential election cycle. Sample Techniques are also used and recommended to reduce sample errors and errors of margin. In chapter four of author Herb Asher he says,"it
10944-425: The campaign know which voters are persuadable so they can spend their limited resources in the most effective manner. Second, it can give them an idea of what messages, ideas, or slogans are the strongest with the electorate. In a tracking poll responses are obtained in a number of consecutive periods, for instance daily, and then results are calculated using a moving average of the responses that were gathered over
11088-609: The country, allowing for a comparative analysis between specific regions. For example, in the United States, exit polls are beneficial in accurately determining how the state voters cast their ballot instead of relying on a national survey. Third, exit polls can give journalists and social scientists a greater understanding of why voters voted the way they did and what factors contributed to their vote. Exit polling has several disadvantages that can cause controversy depending on its use. First, these polls are not always accurate and can sometimes mislead election reporting. For instance, during
11232-542: The court that they regarded their action as a legitimate act in what they described as the "struggle against imperialism". The student movement began to split into different factions, ranging from the unattached liberals to the Maoists and supporters of direct action in every form—the anarchists. Several groups set as their objective the aim of radicalising the industrial workers and taking an example from activities in Italy of
11376-555: The death of Hitler in 1945 and the subsequent capitulation of the German Armed Forces, the national political, judicial, administrative, and constitutional instruments of both Nazi Germany and the Weimar Republic were understood as entirely defunct, such that a new West Germany could be established in a condition of constitutional nullity. Nevertheless, the new West Germany asserted its fundamental continuity with
11520-676: The entry into the Bundestag of the Greens , who received 5.6% of the vote. In January 1987 the Kohl–Genscher government was returned to office, but the FDP and the Greens gained at the expense of the larger parties. Kohl's CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, slipped from 48.8% of the vote in 1983 to 44.3%. The SPD fell to 37%; long-time SPD Chairman Brandt subsequently resigned in April 1987 and
11664-404: The factors that impact the results of opinion polls are the wording and order of the questions being posed by the surveyor. Questions that intentionally affect a respondents answer are referred to as leading questions . Individuals and/or groups use these types of questions in surveys to elicit responses favorable to their interests. For instance, the public is more likely to indicate support for
11808-693: The field of public opinion since 1947 when he joined the Elmo Roper firm, then later became partner. In September 1938, Jean Stoetzel , after having met Gallup, created IFOP, the Institut Français d'Opinion Publique , as the first European survey institute in Paris. Stoetzel started political polls in summer 1939 with the question " Why die for Danzig? ", looking for popular support or dissent with this question asked by appeasement politician and future collaborationist Marcel Déat . Gallup launched
11952-468: The government and the CDU. The CDU/CSU fell just short of an absolute majority, because of the entry into the Bundestag of the Greens, who received 5.6% of the vote. In January 1987 the Kohl–Genscher government was returned to office, but the FDP and the Greens gained at the expense of the larger parties. The Social Democrats concluded that not only were the Greens unlikely to form a coalition, but also that such
12096-457: The government, demanding the resignation of Franz Josef Strauss , Defence Minister, who had decidedly overstepped his competence during the crisis. Adenauer was still wounded by his brief run for president, and this episode damaged his reputation even further. He announced that he would step down in the fall of 1963. His successor was to be Ludwig Erhard. In the early 1960s, the rate of economic growth slowed down significantly. In 1962 growth rate
12240-494: The initialism BRD. On 31 May 1974, the heads of West German federal and state governments recommended always using the full name in official publications. From then on, West German sources avoided the abbreviated form, with the exception of left-leaning organizations which embraced it. In November 1979, the federal government informed the Bundestag that the West German public broadcasters ARD and ZDF had agreed to refuse to use
12384-559: The initialism. The ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 country code of West Germany was DE (for Deutschland , Germany), which has remained the country code of Germany after reunification. ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 codes are the most widely used country codes, and the DE code is notably used as a country identifier, extending the postal code and as the Internet's country code top-level domain .de . The less widely used ISO 3166-1 alpha-3 country code of West Germany
12528-497: The introduction of new emergency acts : the grand coalition gave the ruling parties the two-thirds majority of votes required for their ratification. These controversial acts allowed basic constitutional rights such as freedom of movement to be limited in case of a state of emergency. During the time leading up to the passing of the laws, there was fierce opposition to them, above all by the Free Democratic Party ,
12672-583: The larger cities, especially in West Berlin, where homosexuality had been widely accepted during the twenties in the Weimar Republic. Anger over the treatment of demonstrators following the death of Benno Ohnesorg and the attack on Rudi Dutschke, coupled with growing frustration over the lack of success in achieving their aims led to growing militance among students and their supporters. In May 1968, three young people set fire to two department stores in Frankfurt; they were brought to trial and made very clear to
12816-413: The late 1930s, though, corporate advertisers had begun a successful counterattack against their critics." They rehabilitated the concept of consumer sovereignty by inventing scientific public opinion polls, and making it the centerpiece of their own market research, as well as the key to understanding politics. George Gallup, the vice president of Young and Rubicam, and numerous other advertising experts, led
12960-595: The left wing, for his support of American policies, including the Vietnam War , and right-wing authoritarian regimes. The Brandt Report became a recognised measure for describing the general North-South divide in world economics and politics between an affluent North and a poor South. Brandt was also known for his fierce anti-communist policies at the domestic level, culminating in the Radikalenerlass (Anti-Radical Decree) in 1972. In 1970, while visiting
13104-409: The margin of error is to rely on poll averages . This makes the assumption that the procedure is similar enough between many different polls and uses the sample size of each poll to create a polling average. Another source of error stems from faulty demographic models by pollsters who weigh their samples by particular variables such as party identification in an election. For example, if you assume that
13248-425: The media and the electoral process. In the U.S., Congress and state governments have criticized the use of exit polling because Americans tend to believe more in the accuracy of exit polls. If an exit poll shows that American voters were leaning toward a particular candidate, most would assume that the candidate would win. However, as mentioned earlier, an exit poll can sometimes be inaccurate and lead to situations like
13392-467: The micro-blogging platform Twitter ) for modelling and predicting voting intention polls. A benchmark poll is generally the first poll taken in a campaign. It is often taken before a candidate announces their bid for office, but sometimes it happens immediately following that announcement after they have had some opportunity to raise funds. This is generally a short and simple survey of likely voters. Benchmark polling often relies on timing, which can be
13536-521: The most memorable sessions of parliament, the Bundestag concluded on 20 June 1991, with quite a slim majority, that both government and parliament should move to Berlin from Bonn . Political life in West Germany was remarkably stable and orderly. The Adenauer era (1949–63) was followed by a brief period under Ludwig Erhard (1963–66) who, in turn, was replaced by Kurt Georg Kiesinger (1966–69). All governments between 1949 and 1966 were formed by
13680-429: The necessary information to learn more about it. Despite this, there are two issues with deliberative opinion polls. First, they are expensive and challenging to perform since they require a representative sample of voters, and the information given on specific issues must be fair and balanced. Second, the results of deliberative opinion polls generally do not reflect the opinions of most voters since most voters do not take
13824-630: The occupation zones began to merge. First, the British and American zones were combined into the quasi-state of Bizonia . Soon afterwards, the French zone was included into Trizonia . Conversely, the Soviet zone became East Germany . At the same time, new federal states ( Länder ) were formed in the Allied zones; replacing the geography of pre-Nazi German states such as the Free State of Prussia and
13968-545: The part of the pollsters; many of them are statistical in nature. Some blame respondents for not providing genuine answers to pollsters, a phenomenon known as social desirability-bias (also referred to as the Bradley effect or the Shy Tory Factor ); these terms can be quite controversial. Polls based on samples of populations are subject to sampling error which reflects the effects of chance and uncertainty in
14112-548: The perceived Soviet threat. Germany's partners in the European Coal and Steel Community proposed to establish a European Defence Community (EDC), with an integrated army, navy and air force, composed of the armed forces of its member states. The West German military would be subject to complete EDC control, but the other EDC member states ( Belgium , France, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands ) would cooperate in
14256-482: The police and quantities of documents were seized. Chancellor Adenauer proclaimed in the Bundestag that the article was tantamount to high treason and that the authors would be prosecuted. The editor/owner of the magazine, Rudolf Augstein spent some time in jail before the public outcry over the breaking of laws on freedom of the press became too loud to be ignored. The FDP members of Adenauer's cabinet resigned from
14400-403: The poll is done prior to announcing for office the candidate may use the poll to decide whether or not they should even run for office. Secondly, it shows them where their weaknesses and strengths are in two main areas. The first is the electorate. A benchmark poll shows them what types of voters they are sure to win, those they are sure to lose, and everyone in-between these two extremes. This lets
14544-611: The poll, causing it to favor the candidate most different from the others while it disfavors candidates who are similar to other candidates. The plurality voting system also biases elections in the same way. Some people responding may not understand the words being used, but may wish to avoid the embarrassment of admitting this, or the poll mechanism may not allow clarification, so they may make an arbitrary choice. Some percentage of people also answer whimsically or out of annoyance at being polled. This results in perhaps 4% of Americans reporting they have personally been decapitated . Among
14688-434: The poll, poll samples may not be representative samples from a population due to a non-response bias . Response rates have been declining, and are down to about 10% in recent years. Various pollsters have attributed this to an increased skepticism and lack of interest in polling. Because of this selection bias , the characteristics of those who agree to be interviewed may be markedly different from those who decline. That is,
14832-504: The population of interest to the pollster. A scientific poll not only will have a sufficiently large sample, it will also be sensitive to response rates. Very low response rates will raise questions about how representative and accurate the results are. Are there systematic differences between those who participated in the survey and those who, for whatever reason, did not participate? Sampling methods, sample size, and response rates will all be discussed in this chapter" (Asher 2017). A caution
14976-492: The presidential election, but Roosevelt was instead re-elected by a landslide. George Gallup 's research found that the error was mainly caused by participation bias ; those who favored Landon were more enthusiastic about returning their postcards. Furthermore, the postcards were sent to a target audience who were more affluent than the American population as a whole, and therefore more likely to have Republican sympathies. At
15120-643: The prime cause of the violence against students. Trucks carrying newspapers were set on fire and windows in office buildings broken. In the wakes of these demonstrations, in which the question of America's role in Vietnam began to play a bigger role, came a desire among the students to find out more about the role of the parent-generation in the Nazi era. The proceedings of the War Crimes Tribunal at Nuremberg had been widely publicised in Germany but until
15264-465: The proceedings revealed to the German public the nature of the concentration camp system and it became evident that the Shoah was of vastly greater dimensions than the German population had believed. (The term "Holocaust" for the systematic mass-murder of Jews first came into use in 1979, when a 1978 American mini-series with that name was shown on West German television.) The processes set in motion by
15408-570: The questions are then worded in a way that limit the possible answers, typically to yes or no. Another type of question that can produce inaccurate results are " Double-Negative Questions". These are more often the result of human error, rather than intentional manipulation. One such example is a survey done in 1992 by the Roper Organization , concerning the Holocaust . The question read "Does it seem possible or impossible to you that
15552-455: The radius of the confidence interval for a reported percentage of 50%. Others suggest that a poll with a random sample of 1,000 people has margin of sampling error of ±3% for the estimated percentage of the whole population. A 3% margin of error means that if the same procedure is used a large number of times, 95% of the time the true population average will be within the sample estimate plus or minus 3%. The margin of error can be reduced by using
15696-585: The reformation of the GDR's Länder , the East German states and East Berlin joined the Federal Republic . With territories and frontiers that coincided largely with the ones of old Middle Ages East Francia and the 19th-century Napoleonic Confederation of the Rhine , the Federal Republic of Germany was founded on 23 May 1949 under the terms of the Bonn–Paris conventions , whereby it obtained "the full authority of
15840-404: The release of prisoners sympathetic to their ideas. In the 1990s attacks were still being committed under the name "RAF". The last action took place in 1993 and the group announced it was giving up its activities in 1998. Evidence that the groups had been infiltrated by German Intelligence undercover agents has since emerged, partly through the insistence of the son of one of their prominent victims,
15984-481: The resulting ten states, West Berlin was considered an unofficial de facto eleventh state. While de jure not part of West Germany, for Berlin was under the control of the Allied Control Council (ACC), West Berlin politically aligned itself with West Germany and was directly or indirectly represented in its federal institutions. The foundation for the influential position held by Germany today
16128-624: The rising West German student movement , a group calling itself Notstand der Demokratie ("Democracy in Crisis") and members of the Campaign against Nuclear Armament. A key event in the development of open democratic debate occurred in 1967, when the Shah of Iran , Mohammad Reza Pahlavi , visited West Berlin. Several thousand demonstrators gathered outside the Opera House where he was to attend
16272-438: The ruling parties the two-thirds majority of votes required to see them in. These controversial acts allowed basic constitutional rights such as freedom of movement to be limited in case of a state of emergency . Leading up to the passing of the laws, there was fierce opposition to them, above all by the FDP, the rising German student movement , a group calling itself Notstand der Demokratie [ de ] ("Democracy in
16416-416: The same characteristics as the people who do answer, then the final results should be unbiased. If the people who do not answer have different opinions then there is bias in the results. In terms of election polls, studies suggest that bias effects are small, but each polling firm has its own techniques for adjusting weights to minimize selection bias. Survey results may be affected by response bias , where
16560-402: The same time, Gallup, Archibald Crossley and Elmo Roper conducted surveys that were far smaller but more scientifically based, and all three managed to correctly predict the result. The Literary Digest soon went out of business, while polling started to take off. Roper went on to correctly predict the two subsequent reelections of President Franklin D. Roosevelt. Louis Harris had been in
16704-408: The sampling process. Sampling polls rely on the law of large numbers to measure the opinions of the whole population based only on a subset, and for this purpose the absolute size of the sample is important, but the percentage of the whole population is not important (unless it happens to be close to the sample size). The possible difference between the sample and whole population is often expressed as
16848-776: The second opinion without having it, causing opinion polls to become part of self-fulfilling prophecy problems. It has been suggested that attempts to counteract unethical opinions by condemning supposedly linked opinions may favor the groups that promote the actually unethical opinions by forcing people with supposedly linked opinions into them by ostracism elsewhere in society making such efforts counterproductive, that not being sent between groups that assume ulterior motives from each other and not being allowed to express consistent critical thought anywhere may create psychological stress because humans are sapient, and that discussion spaces free from assumptions of ulterior motives behind specific opinions should be created. In this context, rejection of
16992-560: The sole democratically reorganised continuation of the 1871–1945 German Reich . Three southwestern states of West Germany merged to form Baden-Württemberg in 1952, and the Saarland joined West Germany as a state in 1957 after it had been separated as the Saar Protectorate from Allied-occupied Germany by France (the separation had been not legal as it had not been recognized by the Allied Control Council ). In addition to
17136-566: The state previously informally called West Germany and not a new state, as the process was essentially a voluntary act of accession: the Federal Republic of Germany was enlarged to include the additional six states of the German Democratic Republic. The expanded Federal Republic retained West Germany's political culture and continued its existing memberships in international organisations, as well as its Western foreign policy alignment and affiliation to Western alliances such as
17280-493: The students at the universities in Berlin. One of the most prominent campaigners was a young man from East Germany called Rudi Dutschke who also criticised the forms of capitalism that were to be seen in West Berlin. Just before Easter 1968, a young man tried to kill Dutschke as he bicycled to the student union, seriously injuring him. All over West Germany, thousands demonstrated against the Springer newspapers which were seen as
17424-466: The time to research issues the way an academic researches issues. Exit polls interview voters just as they are leaving polling places. Unlike general public opinion polls, these are polls of people who voted in the election. Exit polls provide a more accurate picture of which candidates the public prefers in an election because people participating in the poll did vote in the election. Second, these polls are conducted across multiple voting locations across
17568-445: The tone of the question(s) and generate a certain response or reaction, rather than gauge sentiment in an unbiased manner. In opinion polling, there are also " loaded questions ", otherwise known as " trick questions ". This type of leading question may concern an uncomfortable or controversial issue, and/or automatically assume the subject of the question is related to the respondent(s) or that they are knowledgeable about it. Likewise,
17712-458: The totality of the territory within the occupation zones. Former German areas east of the rivers Oder and Neisse and outside of 'Germany as a whole' were officially separated from German sovereignty in August 1945 and transferred from Soviet military occupation to Polish and Soviet (in the case of the territory of Kaliningrad) civil administration, their Polish and Soviet status to be confirmed at
17856-647: The united caucus of the Christian-Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU), either alone or in coalition with the smaller Free Democratic Party (FDP) or other right-wing parties. Kiesinger's 1966–69 "Grand Coalition" was between West Germany's two largest parties, the CDU/CSU and the Social Democratic Party (SPD). This was important for the introduction of new emergency acts—the Grand Coalition gave
18000-534: The volatility of the results was at least in part due to an uneven distribution of Democratic and Republican affiliated voters in the samples. Though the Gallup Organization argued the volatility in the poll was a genuine representation of the electorate, other polling organizations took steps to reduce such wide variations in their results. One such step included manipulating the proportion of Democrats and Republicans in any given sample, but this method
18144-796: The way. Moving into the 1940s, the industry played a leading role in the ideological mobilization of the American people in fighting the Nazis and the Japanese in World War II. As part of that effort, they redefined the "American Way of Life" in terms of a commitment to free enterprise. "Advertisers", Lears concludes, "played a crucial hegemonic role in creating the consumer culture that dominated post-World War II American society." Opinion polls for many years were maintained through telecommunications or in person-to-person contact. Methods and techniques vary, though they are widely accepted in most areas. Over
18288-653: The winner (albeit not the extent of their winning margin), with the last two correctly predicting the winner of the popular vote (but not the Electoral College). In the United Kingdom, most polls failed to predict the Conservative election victories of 1970 and 1992 , and Labour's victory in February 1974 . In the 2015 election , virtually every poll predicted a hung parliament with Labour and
18432-440: The wording of the question. On some issues, question wording can result in quite pronounced differences between surveys. This can also, however, be a result of legitimately conflicted feelings or evolving attitudes, rather than a poorly constructed survey. A common technique to control for this bias is to rotate the order in which questions are asked. Many pollsters also split-sample. This involves having two different versions of
18576-461: The years, technological innovations have also influenced survey methods such as the availability of electronic clipboards and Internet based polling. Opinion polling developed into popular applications through popular thought, although response rates for some surveys declined. Also, the following has also led to differentiating results: Some polling organizations, such as Angus Reid Public Opinion , YouGov and Zogby use Internet surveys, where
18720-409: Was 4.7% and the following year, 2.0%. After a brief recovery, the growth rate slowed again into a recession, with no growth in 1967. A new coalition was formed to deal with this problem. Erhard stepped down in 1966 and was succeeded by Kurt Georg Kiesinger . He led a grand coalition between West Germany's two largest parties, the CDU/CSU and the Social Democratic Party (SPD). This was important for
18864-551: Was DEU, which has remained the country code of reunified Germany. The now deleted codes for East Germany, on the other hand, were DD in ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 and DDR in ISO 3166-1 alpha-3. The colloquial term West Germany or its equivalent was used in many languages. Westdeutschland was also a widespread colloquial form used in German-speaking countries, usually without political overtones. On 4–11 February 1945 leaders from
19008-430: Was a clear tendency for polls which included mobile phones in their samples to show a much larger lead for Obama , than polls that did not. The potential sources of bias are: Some polling companies have attempted to get around that problem by including a "cellphone supplement". There are a number of problems with including cellphones in a telephone poll: A widely publicized failure of opinion polling to date in
19152-774: Was a tally of voter preferences reported by the Raleigh Star and North Carolina State Gazette and the Wilmington American Watchman and Delaware Advertiser prior to the 1824 presidential election , showing Andrew Jackson leading John Quincy Adams by 335 votes to 169 in the contest for the United States Presidency . Since Jackson won the popular vote in that state and the national popular vote, such straw votes gradually became more popular, but they remained local, usually citywide phenomena. In 1916, The Literary Digest embarked on
19296-576: Was also a proponent of agreements that developed into the present-day European Union . When the G6 was established in 1975, there was no serious debate as to whether West Germany would become a member. Following the collapse of the Eastern Bloc , symbolised by the opening of the Berlin Wall , both states took action to achieve German reunification . East Germany voted to dissolve and accede to
19440-399: Was an unacceptable threat to the balance of nuclear power, because it increased the likelihood of political coercion and required a western response. NATO responded in the form of its twin-track policy. The domestic reverberations were serious inside the SPD, and undermined its coalition with the FDP. One of his major successes, in collaboration with French President Valéry Giscard d'Estaing ,
19584-525: Was exhausted, for reasons which had nothing to do with the process going on at the time". Finance Minister Helmut Schmidt (SPD) then formed a government, continuing the SPD–FDP coalition. He served as Chancellor from 1974 to 1982. Hans-Dietrich Genscher, a leading FDP official, was Vice Chancellor and Foreign Minister in the same years. Schmidt, a strong supporter of the European Community (EC) and
19728-573: Was first identified in 2004, but came to prominence only during the 2008 US presidential election . In previous elections, the proportion of the general population using cell phones was small, but as this proportion has increased, there is concern that polling only landlines is no longer representative of the general population. In 2003, only 2.9% of households were wireless (cellphones only), compared to 12.8% in 2006. This results in " coverage error ". Many polling organisations select their sample by dialling random telephone numbers; however, in 2008, there
19872-574: Was formed as a political entity during the Allied occupation of Germany after World War II , established from 12 states formed in the three Allied zones of occupation held by the United States, the United Kingdom, and France. At the onset of the Cold War, Europe was divided between the Western and Eastern blocs . Germany was divided into the two countries. Initially, West Germany claimed an exclusive mandate for all of Germany, representing itself as
20016-525: Was held at the Reichstag building , including Chancellor Helmut Kohl , President Richard von Weizsäcker , former Chancellor Willy Brandt and many others. One day later, the parliament of the united Germany would assemble in an act of symbolism in the Reichstag building. However, at that time, the role of Berlin had not yet been decided upon. Only after a fierce debate, considered by many as one of
20160-495: Was hugely unpopular in West Germany and was opposed by the new government of Konrad Adenauer. In 1951, several laws were passed granting amnesties and ending denazification. As a result, many people with a former Nazi past ended up again in the political apparatus of West Germany. Between 1951 and 1953, there was even an effort by a clandestine group of former Nazi functionaries, known as the Naumann Circle , to infiltrate
20304-451: Was laid during the economic miracle of the 1950s ( Wirtschaftswunder ), when West Germany rose from the enormous destruction wrought by World War II to become the world's second-largest economy. The first chancellor Konrad Adenauer , who remained in office until 1963, worked for a full alignment with the NATO rather than neutrality, and secured membership in the military alliance. Adenauer
20448-455: Was succeeded by Hans-Jochen Vogel . The FDP's share rose from 7% to 9.1%, its best showing since 1980. The Greens' share rose to 8.3% from their 1983 share of 5.6%. With the collapse of eastern bloc in 1989, symbolised by the opening of the Berlin Wall , there was a rapid move towards German reunification ; and a final settlement of the post-war special status of Germany . Following democratic elections, East Germany declared its accession to
20592-506: Was the launching of the European Monetary System (EMS) in April 1978. In October 1982 the SPD–FDP coalition fell apart when the FDP joined forces with the CDU/CSU to elect CDU Chairman Helmut Kohl as Chancellor in a constructive vote of no confidence . Following national elections in March 1983, Kohl emerged in firm control of both the government and the CDU. The CDU/CSU fell just short of an absolute majority, due to
20736-416: Was the steady growth of a feminist movement in which women demonstrated for equal rights. Until 1977, a married woman had to have the permission of her husband if she wanted to take on a job or open a bank account. Further reforms in 1979 to parental rights law gave equal legal rights to the mother and the father, abolishing the legal authority of the father. Parallel to this, a gay movement began to grow in
#496503